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Trump is doing his trade thing with China, and part of the 2020 agreement will be a resolution of the US dollar. A weaker US dollar is on the table, as it helps both Trump and Xi. The COT reports gives us a huge hint this is about to happen early in 2020.
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Lyn Alden makes a great point in this thread about the Dec 2019 repo news.
For years, large U.S. banks were drawing down cash levels (15% to 7% of assets in last 5yr) to buy treasuries (from 15% to 21% of assets). But now they are basically at regulatory limits; can’t draw down cash to buy more treasuries. So, the Fed became the new buyer of them.
and ..
A lot of people think the Fed is trying to support the equity market, or covering for a bank/fund failure somewhere. Those explanations are possible, but not required. The Fed simply taking over as the primary financier of U.S. deficits is a mathematically sufficient reason.
Luke Gromen sums up the argument for a lower US dollar.
It is election year in the USA and to stimulate into Nov 2020 he needs a economic boost. Trump can not get tax cuts, or infrastructure spending out of congress, he is left with the FED balance sheet and a lower US dollar. They are about to step up big time.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote…
..“In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction.”..
Jesse Livermore
..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..
Bernard Baruch
..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..
George Soros
..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”
Warren Buffett
..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..
Benjamin Franklin
