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Trump To Hold “Major” News Conference At 6PM: Will Announce “Reopening” Guidelines, $2 Trillion Infrastructure Package

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Today at 6pm, Trump will hold a "major" news conference in which he will explain the "guidelines" for reopening America.

In previewing the contents of the speech, Trump said that he thinks the "nation's governors will be happy with guidelines he will unveil" adding that there "may be a $2 trillion infrastructure package."

Earlier in the day, Academy Securities' Peter Tchir published his preview of what to expect from the "reopening" presser. For those who missed it, here it is again.

35% Say the Re-Opening Plan Is Too Dangerous

35% of the population, 3 broadcast networks and 2 cable news networks will immediately blast the plan as not caring enough about lives. 

That the plan is full of mistakes and risks. 

They will replay the inevitable gaffs in the presentation repeatedly. 

Then they will fact check some statements and find great inconsistencies or a lack of corroboration.

The emotional drama will be high (and very light of fact checking the criticisms).

10% Say the Re-Opening Doesn’t Go Far Enough

10% of the population, mostly on social media will immediately lament that the plan doesn’t go far enough.  That too many of their rights are being infringed on.

20% Say the Plan is Best Thing Since Sliced Bread

20% of the population, lead by one broadcast network, will embrace the plan.  The anger factor will be high, along with I told you so’s.

Market Will Rally in Anticipation and Fade on the Plan

It will creep higher into the plan, with bears warning you that the problem is intractable and not to get caught in the sucker’s rally.  Then, when markets fade, which typically happens once the Q&A gets into gear (though there was one speech at 9 pm, early on in the crisis that was so bad (the President mentioned banning goods from Europe), futures sold off during that speech and through the next several days). 

35% Start Rational Discussion and Buy the Dip

Some percentage of people will try to read the plan, understand the plan and analyze it.  This segment of the population is heavily skewed towards the financial industry, financial media and corporate executives, where being right is more important than sounding right.

There will be some things to like.  There will be some things that don’t make much sense or are concerning.  There will be aspects that seem to go too far and areas that don’t seem to do enough.

There will be passionate disagreement between colleagues because this issue is complex and there is no easy or obvious answer to balance the health risk with the crushing economic problem.  There is no right answer.  Just various paths that each have their own uncertain levels of risk and reward.

Everyone Will Have a Plan

By tomorrow morning, there will be at least 2 or 3 competing plans.  The reaction of the media and most of the population will be 99% determined by who put the plan forward rather than any actual content in the plan (which is convenient, since most won’t read any of the details anyays).

By the Weekend 100% Will Support Some Re-Opening Plan

This is key.  While most people will hate some plans and love others and many won’t be able to explain inconsistencies or even contradictions in what they like or don’t like, there will be a vibe coalescing around a plan.  The administration will adapt their plan.  They will make some changes that they say are theirs, while others will argue they just stole their idea.  While the battle of who’s idea it was or wasn’t rages, we will slowly, inevitably, and against all the obstacles, make progress on re-opening.

If Others Can Do It, Why Not Us?

It will take some time for some people to back down from extreme positions.  Testing, or lack thereof is hurdle here, for now.  We should start seeing success stories of other economies.  Instead of the “we are going to be Italy” stories, we will start seeing “why can’t we compete with Germany” stories.  Ultimately I think that while the story is still the War on the Virus, the Battle for the Economy will take center stage.

Bottom Line?

Keep your risk assets – stocks and credit.  If you’re an aggressive trader, you can probably lighten up ahead of the  scheduled press conference, but you will want to buy the almost inevitable post conference dip.


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