By Dan Celia. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Dan Celia: Markets Are Desperate for News About a COVID-19 Treatment or Vaccine
Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
“Some good news is that U.S. airlines are beginning to see a slight pickup in demand,” Celia said. “Some are wondering if this is a turning point in the pandemic, but I wouldn’t be too quick to make any real decisions or judgments about that. The fact of the matter is the economy doesn’t turn on as quick as it turned off.”
Markets Gain On COVID-19 Vaccine News
Celia pointed out that some questions have arisen about the COVID-19 vaccine being worked on by Moderna, whose initial news precipitated gains in the markets on Monday.
“Apparently, Moderna didn’t produce data that was critical to assessing the actual COVID-19 vaccines, so possibly the efficacy could be called into question,” Celia said. “All that stock gain could be gone by tomorrow if this proves to be true—and then some. I saw this as an opportunity to sell this stock if you owned it. I don’t know how many people took heed but remember what I said—it was very fragile, not just in the stock, but in the markets.
“The 900-point gain on Monday was based on information about a study group of 45 people, when only eight of them had the kind of success they were looking for,” Celia added. “It goes to show how desperate markets are for some sort of treatment or confirmation of a vaccine, but we need to go slow and easy and not rush to assumptions.”
The Loss Of Income Stream
Celia added that the places hardest hit by the outbreak, such as New York City, could experience additional problems down the road because of the loss of income stream. Many areas will face similar situations.
“If you don’t think taxes will go up, be prepared for that reality,” he said. “There’s really no other way out of this, now or in future years. The government has predicted the GDP will tumble 38%. That is the greatest single drop in U.S. history and well above most people’s expectations.”
Celia discusses these and other global and economic headlines on his daily, three-hour “Financial Issues” program.
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