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CDC Issues New Guidance, Says Lockdowns May Be Necessary If COVID-19 Makes Dramatic Comeback: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Latest CDC forecasts call for 124k deaths in US by July 4
  • Oregon delays reopening plan by a week
  • CDC says dramatic increase in new COVID cases might require more 'mitigation measures'
  • Tedros: "It's very hard to fight COVID-19 in a divided world"
  • Arizona sees another record jump in cases
  • ASU makes wearing facemasks mandatory on campus
  • Italy reports just 56 deaths
  • Cuomo bashes states where numbers are rising
  • NY's latest numbers in line with 7 day average
  • Florida reports largest jump in new cases since May 1
  • Kudlow says WH sees 'no evidence' of second wave
  • For first time, India reports more than 10k cases in a day
  • Delhi accused of undercounting COVID-19 deaths
  • WHO warns global outbreak is worsening
  • England sees encouraging reduction in viral spread
  • Brazil, Russia, Mexico, India lead surge in global cases
  • Brazil crosses 800k cases
  • Beijing delays school reopening after finding 3 new cases

* * *

Update (1317ET): As the RNC moves its upcoming convention to Jacksonville (the largest city in Florida, believe it or not) after North Carolina balked at holding such a large gathering with no social distancing protocols in place (per the president's request), Portland Gov. Kate Brown on Friday announced a one-week “pause” of her state's reopening plans after 177 new cases and two deaths were reported on Thursday. Oregon is one of 11 states that recently reached its highest seven-day rolling average of new coronavirus cases, according to data tracked by The Washington Post, though officials insist that the increase in testing is largely to blame, according to the Washington Post.

The CDC said event planners should consider several strategies, from broadcasting regular announcements about steps attendees could take to reduce the virus’s spread, to limiting seating capacity to allow for social distancing, to reconfiguring parking lots to limit congregation points. It also suggested working with local officials to identify how to separate people with covid-like symptoms, or those who have tested positive for the virus but do not have symptoms.

Separately, the CDC also laid out recommendations to help individuals reduce their own risk for infection as they resume daily activities.

Besides urging people to continue precautions such as hand-washing, wearing face coverings, and keeping six feet apart, it made specific suggestions for certain activities, including:

  • Going to the bank — Use drive-through services or ATMs
  • Hosting a cookout — Encourage people to bring their own food and drinks and identify one person to serve shareable items
  • Traveling overnight — Consider taking the stairs at hotels, or wait to ride alone in the elevator or only with people from your household

Meanwhile, the latest CDC projections reported in the press project 124k COVID-19 deaths by July 4.

* * *

A former government data scientist who has accused Florida officials of deliberately suppressing the true extent of the outbreak in the state has started publishing her own data showing different – and most often higher – numbers on cases and deaths. Meanwhile, Gov Ron DeSantis on Friday blamed the latest uptick on farm workers.

As consumer demand rebounds, GM has reportedly rejected a request from one of its unions to temporarily close its plant in Wentzville, Mo., after five workers there tested positive for the novel coronavirus according to the Detroit Free Press.

China is using the recent reporting of 3 new cases…

…as an opportunity to boost its propaganda.

* * *

Update (1220ET): After Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow insisted that the US wouldn't shut down its economy again even if COVID-19 cases rebound, the CDC said Friday during a conference call that new mitigation measures might be necessary if there's a dramatic increase in cases, and those measures might be similar to measures from March.

  •  CDC SAYS IF CASES GO UP AGAIN DRAMATICALLY, MORE MITIGATION EFFORTS LIKE WHAT WERE IMPLEMENTED BACK IN MARCH MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN – CONF CALL

The organization also released new guidance recommending the organizers of any events that involve "singing, chanting or shouting" to wear face masks – though the CDC denied that it targeted that guidance toward the anti-police brutality protests, or the upcoming RNC, which President Trump has insisted must go on as if nothing was wrong (to the chagrin of many republicans).

Trump himself will likely now need to get involved and repudiate this claim with a tweet before it starts to rattle the market's confidence.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Thursday that another economic shutdown would harm the US, even in the event of a second wave of COVID-19 cases.

"We can't shut down the economy again," Mnuchin said during an interview with CNBC. "I think we've learned that if you shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage."

We suspect governors – particularly GOP governors – will be reluctant to shut down their economies again; even some Democrats might be unwilling, even if it might hurt Trump's reelection chances (because it also might impact their own).

Meanwhile, as WHO continues to play down a claim by one of its top doctors that asymptomatic carriers rarely transmit the virus, Dr. Tedros said Friday that "it's hard to fight COVID-19 in a divided world." Meanwhile, Dr. Mike Ryan said any country exiting lockdown can expect a spike in new cases.

Yeah, especially when all these scientists keep making these conflicting claims, while assuring the public that nobody really knows anything about this virus for certain, aside from the obvious.

* * *

Update (1210ET): Arizona just reported another record jump in new cases, with 1,654 infections and 17 new deaths confirmed over the last 24 hours, as Italy sees another day of deaths below 60. The statewide total is now 32,918, with 1,144 deaths. There are now 17,023 positive cases and 514 deaths in Maricopa County alone.

The total number of cases have roughly doubled since Memorial Day

ASU just made wearing face masks mandatory on campus.

Italy's recovery has been notably smooth following its extremely strict lockdown.

Circling back to Arizona, the number of cases in the state have doubled since Memorial day, and tripled since May 1. Az reported just over 1,400 cases yesterday, another record, and roughly twice as high as last week's 7-day averages, and Florida reported a second straight highest jump since early May.

* * *

Update (1155ET): During today's briefing, Cuomo revealed that NY recorded just 42 deaths over the past day, while criticizing four states – Florida, Arizona, Texas and California – for not staying "New York Smart" as they reopened their economies.

Cuomo's presentation with this slide intended to put the risks from the protests in perspective.

Then it was on to the data, as Cuomo advised that observers should focus on NY's "daily testing" number, which Cuomo said would be increasingly important going forward. It's also the number he can hide behind if cases do start to rise again.

Cuomo took some pot shots at rivals states (including California, which reporters once compared favorably to NY, though that impression has distinctly changed).

During the briefing, Cuomo also discussed his planned executive order, which will force all police departments in the state to address use of force by officers and develop new training programs focused on deescalation and sensitivity.

* * *

Update (1140ET): New York State just released its latest numbers, and cases climbed 0.2%, in line with the state's 7-day average. Watch Cuomo's daily briefing below:

* * *

Update (1055ET): Florida's cases of COVID-19 cases climbed 2.8% to 70,971, the state's biggest daily jump since May 1, as it continued to role back restrictions five weeks after starting the process of reopening its economy. That number compares with a 7-day average of 2%. Deaths among Florida residents reached 2,877, an increase of 1%.

The state is among a group of 23 that are seeing new infections rise weeks after starting to reopen their economies.

As we've noted, new COVID-19 cases in Florida and Texas have seen significant spikes this week. Parts of Texas, including most notably Houston but also San Antonio are seeing "a very large increase" in cases and "we are entering a second wave," one health official in the state, warned (though Scott Gottlieb has argued that the state never really got over the first).

* * *

Update (0850ET): During his latest media appearance, White House economic advisor and former CNBC host Larry Kudlow is once again insisting that the White House is seeing "no evidence" of a second wave (to be fair, they also missed evidence of the first) and that under no circumstances will the economy shut down again. He added that he expects "most" small businesses in the country will reopen by next month.

* * *

Update (0800ET): For the first time since the coronavirus arrived in India back in late January, the country's public health officials have counted more than 10,000 confirmed new cases in a day.

* * *

Earlier this week, while many Americans (and many more abroad) were focused on the demonstrations sparked by the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis PD custody, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned during one of the NGO's regular press briefings in Geneva that "although the situation in Europe is improving, globally it is worsening."

That formidable reality hit the market like a brick through a Starbucks window on Thursday, as the Dow plunged nearly 2000 points in a brief but painful reminder of March's untenable market conditions.

But since then, millions of Americans have gotten free money from the government in the form of "enhanced" unemployment benefits and, of course, the stim check – but we digress. Like Dr. Tedros said, the number of new cases confirmed daily across the world has continued to climb, following a brief plateau, as India, Mexico, Brazil and Russia have emerged as the new global hotspots.

Indian PM Narendra Modi won plaudits for a restrictive lockdown that began in late March and endured until this week. But as restrictions have eased over the last month, it appears the number of newly reported cases has surged beyond the level that could have been justified by the increase in testing capacity alone. Using a logarithmic scale helps highlight the magnitude of the outbreak, which as many have argued, doesn't constitute a 'second wave', since the first wave never really receded.

Adding to the uncomfortable spotlight on India, the FT reported last night on allegations that the government in New Delhi has been under-reporting coronavirus deaths as the country eases its strict lockdown in an attempt to kick-start the economy.

Citing doctors at five of the 15 hospitals in the capital city, which, along with Mumbai, is one of the two worst-hit areas of the world's second most-populous country, the FT claimed that the number of dead killed by the virus in the city has far outstripped the official numbers reported to public health officials. The figures provided by the doctors exceeded the official tally by more than 100 deaths. And that's just across 5 hospitals in the city. At this rate, India is report nearly 400 deaths a day, the highest levels since the virus arrived in the country.

After moving to swiftly address signs of a resurgent outbreak in Wuhan and in a northeastern province, Chinese health officials on Friday announced that they had discovered 2 new cases of the virus over the last 24 hours. The two infected individuals who live in the city's Fengtai district are said to be colleagues. In response, the city is cleaning a local market, and delaying the reopening of in-class school after finding 3 new cases.

We reported last night that Houston, Texas is weighing whether to reopen an emergency COVID-19 hospital that was never used as the number if cases in the area surges, while officials consider whether to reimpose a stay-at-home order.

On CNBC, one reporter described the picture in the US as "a tale of two countries" with states in the south and west reporting a sharp upsurge in cases and hospitalizations, while the Greater New York area continues to see cases and deaths fall to lows not seen since the early days of the pandemic. In some states, like Oregon, testing and contact-tracing have been blamed for the uptick in new cases, while Arizona, which reopened much more quickly than Oregon, has seen new cases outstrip the increase in testing.

According to the NYT, 23 states are seeing the number of new cases increasing on a daily basis.

Source: NYT

As the death toll skyrockets in Brazil, volunteers critical of President Jair Bolsonaro's response (or rather, lack thereof) dug 100 graves with black crosses on Rio's Copacabana Beach in memory of the 40,000 Brazilians who have succumbed to the virus, according to official numbers, NPR reports.

The protest was held after Brazilian public health officials reported 30,412 new cases of the virus and 1,239 new deaths, for a total of 802,828 cases and 40,919 deaths.

Like India, Brazil has been repeatedly accused of underreporting both cases and deaths; on both, Brazil ranks second only to the US.

Meanwhile in Europe, even the UK, which has struggled with a particularly intractable outbreak, is finally seeing evidence of a sustained decline. The number of people with the virus in England continues to fall, according to a weekly infection survey by the ONS. It follows news that the UK economy shrank at a record 20.4% in April, the largest contraction on record.


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