Courtesy of Read the Ticker
The US election chaos continues and if Washington can not stimulate the market the ball bounces into the FED court, but in the end it is all about the US dollar.
The euro currency (EURUSD) represents money flowing between European and US Banks. European banks have had a rough time lately, and when they suffer monies flow in to US Banks, thus adding to US dollar strength.
The ETF for European bank stocks is iShares MSCI Europe Financials (EUFN). The chart below shows the EUFN upside down (inverted) compared to the US Dollar (DXY) index, and you can see important pivot points sync between the two (blue arrows). When European banks get a vote of confidence the US dollar is softer, when the European banks lose confidence the US dollar gains strength.
At the moment EUFN is rising (or with our inverted EUFN chart it is falling), European banks are improving, hence this suggest weakness for the US dollar into Xmas. Just in time for a risk off Xmas rally.
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A lower US dollar suggest anti US dollar trades will do well, and the biggest anti US dollar trade in the news at the moment is bitcoin (BTC). We see a nice pattern of accumulation followed by advancing price action into upper resistance, no doubt all time high prices are near.
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Below is the Gann Angle and T Theory review of Bitcoin. Late December 2020 to mid January 2021 should see price top out near $20,000 resistance, and most likely build a consolidation pattern as we must expect supply to arrive at resistance and then finally to break out into all time highs.
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There is some discussion of T Theory on bitcoin in this video.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…
Richard D. Wyckoff
..”It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”..
George Soros
My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.
Marc Faber
…”I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second”..
Paul Tudor Jones
..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..
John Templeton
