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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Inflation Deflation Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

inflation-deflation-cycle-reviewStructural change forces the current narrative to change. One such structural change would be a period elevated inflation.



Inflation is a condition which effects many economic models, we only have to review the history books of the 1970’s to see how asset classes reacted then and how they may react in the future. 



In periods of inflation there are short periods of deflation, as markets adjust from one theme to another it usually does so with some pain. The short answer: Nothing moves in a straight line and high volatility will shock the most experience investor.  



Long term cycles raise the question, if happened before is it likely to happen again. Price does not always fit the sine wave cycle neatly, but if the cycle is true price will correct to the cycle swing. 



Some cycle to be aware of … be aware of the different time frames. 





Inflation



CPI








CRB Index





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CRB cycle






Oil Cycle



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OIL






US Dollar Cycle







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USD






SP500 Cycle





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USD






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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”I latter told my students, ‘think in waves’ [of price and volume]”..



Richard D Wyckoff





..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..



Warren Buffet





..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..



Anon





..”A radical is one who speaks the truth.”..



Charles August Lindbergh Snr



..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”..



John Templeton







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