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Futures Rebound As Apple Soars To All Time High; “Dovish” Powell On Deck

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US index futures rebounded from yesterday's modest drop helped by a rise in mega-cap technology stocks as investors awaited Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and more earnings reports from big banks poured in. At 745 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04% and S&P 500 e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.12%.Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 52.50 points, or 0.35%, with Apple rising over $3 to $148.72 after a Bloomberg report it was targeting a 20% increase in next-gen iPhone production, while JP. Morgan added the iPhone maker’s stock to its “analyst focus list” and raised its price target as the stock is “positioned for upside led by upward revisions to iPhone 12 volumes on the back of recent momentum and share gains in key geographies."

Among other companies reporting earnings, American Airlines rose 1.9% after it forecast positive cash flow in the second quarter for the first time since the pandemic began. Some other notable premarket movers include:

  • Bank of America shares fell 2% in premarket trading after the bank reported second-quarter results that missed analyst expectations.
  • Allena Pharma (ALNA) falls 18% in premarket trading after its planned share offering implied a slight discount.
  • Mediaco (MDIA) surges 24% as other shares that are favorites with retail traders also gain, rebounding after a group of so-called meme stocks fell on Tuesday.
  • Sgoco (SGOC) gains 5.5% and Powerbridge (PBTS) rises 9.2%, while Exela Technologies (XELA) advances 7.1%.

In line with its peers, Bank of America Corp reported a jump in second-quarter profit as it released reserves it had set aside last year to cover potential loan losses tied to the pandemic. However, its shares fell 2.4% before the opening bell. Wells Fargo and Citigroup Inc traded mixed in premarket trading ahead of their earnings report on Wednesday. Focus will also be on producer price index data for June due at 8:30 a.m ET.

Wall Street has been sensitive to rising inflation, with market participants fearing that a potential hawkish shift by the central bank amid a rise in new coronavirus infections could wobble stocks after a record rally from the pandemic lows last year.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s drive for big new infrastructure investment got a boost on Tuesday when leading Senate Democrats agreed on a $3.5 trillion investment plan they aim to include in a budget resolution to be debated soon. The stimulus will likely add to inflation concerns: data on Tuesday indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, pulling the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq from intraday record highs, and taking shine off strong earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.

As Jim Reid notes, today’s main highlight will now be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services before he follows up with the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see his response to the latest CPI report, particularly since markets responded by moving up the pace of future Fed hikes. Indeed, even though the FOMC adjusted their dots at their June meeting to show the first hike taking place in 2023, investors are still pricing in a first hike by the end of 2022, so there’s still a bit of a discrepancy between what the Fed are saying and current market pricing. Staying on the US, overnight we also got the news that Senate Democrats on the Budget Committee had agreed a $3.5tn spending bill that would push through much of President Biden’s agenda. Alongside the proposed $579bn bipartisan infrastructure plan, that would bring the total amount of spending if both passed to more than $4tn. That’s not a final number however, as the proposal would need to win support from all 50 Senate Democrats to pass via the reconciliation process.

“Outside of yesterday’s CPI print, which has reinvigorated the Fed’s policy debate, global factors remain generally supportive of risk,” said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an analyst at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg. “The chairman is likely to retain a dovish tone during his testimony tonight, maintaining a view that inflation is transitory.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index declined, led by utilities and travel and leisure companies.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Tele2 shares jump as much as 6% to an 11-month high after its results, with Goldman Sachs highlighting the telecom operator’s 2Q earnings beat and 2021 guidance upgrade.
  • Nordic Semiconductor shares gained as much as 2.9% after Pareto upgraded the stock to hold from sell and raised its price target.
  • Hugo Boss shares rose as much as 6.4%, hitting the highest since Sept. 2019, with analysts saying the German suit maker’s 2Q results were well ahead of expectations.
  • Esker shares gained as much as 5.6% to a record following a 2Q sales update late Tuesday, with Berenberg saying the French software firm had a strong quarter.
  • Avanza Bank shares fell as much as 12%, the most since March 2020, after the company reported 2Q earnings. Handelsbanken said the results provide “a minor read-across for commission income to the largest Swedish banks.”
  • Afry shares dropped as much as 5.3%, most since Oct. 2020, following the company’s 2Q report. Handelsbanken said earnings were a bit weaker than expected, mainly owing to the much higher negative contribution from the “Elimination” line.
  • SSP Group shares fell as much as 5.4%, hitting the lowest since Feb. 22, with Jefferies saying the departure of its CEO adds to ongoing uncertainty.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell after two days of gains, with China and Vietnam leading declines, following a surprise jump in U.S. inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 0.4%, weighed down by financial and industrials stocks. China’s CSI 300 and Vietnam’s VN Index each dropped more than 1%, while liquidity-sensitive ChiNext slid 0.8%. The Hang Seng Index declined 0.6%. “Higher inflation means the economy is getting better but, at the same time, there’s the potential tightening of monetary policies,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a fund manager at Saison Asset Management. “The higher inflation figures will be a plus for the most part, except for the technology heavyweights.” Today’s drop follows a rally that pushed the Asian stock benchmark to its best two-day gain since February as worries over the global economy eased. Vietnam’s stock market, which reached a record high earlier this month, neared a technical correction as investors worried about the nation’s rising Covid-19 cases.

Japanese stocks fell, halting a two-day rally, after Wall Street retreated from a record and Treasury yields climbed. The Topix fell 0.2% to 1,963.16 in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 closed at 28,608.49, down 0.4%. Hitachi Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 3%. Today, chemicals stocks led the market lower, as 19 of 33 sectors lost; 1,175 of 2,187 shares fell, while 909 rose. U.S. index futures fell during Asia trading hours. On Tuesday, the benchmark S&P 500 slid for the first time in three trading sessions with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reporting mixed results. A report showed prices paid by U.S. consumers surged in June by the most since 2008. “Higher inflation means the economy is getting better but, at the same time, there’s the potential tightening of monetary policies,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a fund manager at Saison Asset Management

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to 7,354.70, as investors appeared to look past virus concerns after Sydney extended its lockdown for a further two weeks. Spark Infrastructure was the top performer after a report that it had an approach from a party that had been interested in making a buyout proposal. Payment firms were the worst performers after a report that Apple is working with Goldman Sachs on a service that will allow consumers to pay off purchases in installments, rivaling other “buy now, pay later” offerings. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 12,719.68 after the nation’s central bank said it will end quantitative easing. The Kiwi dollar jumped as traders priced in an interest-rate increase as early as August.

In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Index inched lower and the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. New Zealand’s dollar led gains and rallied by as much as 1.2% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by saying it will halt bond buying under its Large Scale Asset Purchase program by July 23. The nation’s bonds extended losses, with 10-year yields rising as much as 11 basis points to 1.78%. The pound advanced and gilts fell across the curve after U.K. inflation accelerated to the highest level in three years in June, driven by widespread price increases that challenge the Bank of England’s argument that the surge will be temporary.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated to about 1.385% and the dollar trimmed gains after Tuesday’s surge. Yields are richer by as much as 3bp across long-end of the curve, with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1.4bp and 1.6bp on the day; 10-year yields around 1.385%, richer by 2bp and outperforming bunds, gilts by 2.3bp and 6bp on the day. Treasuries long-end found some support over Asia session, as buyers emerged following Tuesday’s aggressive post-auction bear-steepening move. Consequently, the curve is slightly flatter heading into early U.S. session with S&P 500 futures little changed. 

In commodities, oil edged down after touching the highest in more than 2 1/2 years on signs of a rapidly tightening global market.

Looking at the day ahead now, the main highlight will likely be the aforementioned appearance of Fed Chair Powell before the House Committee on Financial Services. There’s also the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a policy decision from the Bank of Canada, and remarks from the Fed’s Kashkari, the ECB’s Schnabel and the BoE’s Ramsden. Data releases include the US PPI reading for June, the UK CPI reading for June and the Euro Area’s industrial production for May. Meanwhile earnings releases include Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and BlackRock.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,360.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 459.59
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 205.42
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 683.92
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,608.49
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,963.16
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 27,787.46
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,528.50
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 52,882.49
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,354.69
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 3,264.81
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $76.14/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,814.32
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.11% to 92.65
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.281%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1793

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Every industry would be forced to accelerate its shift away from fossil fuels in order to cut pollution by at least 55% from 1990 levels by 2030, according to EU proposals to be unveiled on Wednesday, putting the region on a path to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century
  • Sydney extended its lockdown for a further two weeks until at least July 30, prolonging curbs that have already kept it isolated from the rest of the nation for three weeks
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are slated to discuss the hot U.S. housing market and the risks it could pose to the financial system at a meeting with fellow regulators on Friday

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mostly lower following the subdued performance across global counterparts as inflationary concerns were stoked in the aftermath of the firmer than expected US CPI. The ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat amid strength in the commodity-related sectors and just about shrugged off a two-week extension to the Sydney lockdown. Participants also digested the recent announcement of support measures for those impacted by the ongoing restrictions and with some encouragement from the improved Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) was lacklustre but with downside stemmed as exporters were kept tentative by an indecisive currency, while the KOSPI (-0.2%) continued to suffer from another record daily increase in COVID-19 cases and with South Korea to toughen social distancing for regions outside of greater Seoul. The Hang Seng (-0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) were negative due to the ongoing frictions between the world's top two economies. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful following the subdued mood for T-notes in the aftermath of the firmer-than-expected inflation data stateside and weak US 30yr auction, while JGBs prices also failed to benefit from the negative mood in stocks and the BoJ's Rinban announcement for nearly JPY 1.4tln of JGBs that was heavily concentrated in the 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Vietnam Stock Benchmark Nears Correction as Virus Resurges
  • First India Unicorn IPO 35 Times Subscribed by Anchor Funds
  • China Banks’ Profit Growth Rises ‘Notably’ as Economy Rebounds
  • Gold Edges Up as Bond Yields, Dollar Ease After Inflation Spike

Bourses in Europe remain under mild pressure following a lacklustre open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%) as the region took the baton from a mostly downbeat APAC session. Ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s appearance at the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, US equity futures stay contained around the flat mark. However, the NQ (+0.4%) narrowly outperforms after the future printed a top at 14,989.25 yesterday– a whisker away from the 15k mark. Back to Europe, sectors are primarily in the red with the exception of Banks, Basic Resources, Autos and Oil & Gas. The other side of the spectrum sees the Travel & Leisure sector weighed on by Evolution Gaming (-2.5%), who account for around a fifth of the sector in Europe. Banks benefit from the yield environment following the soft 30yr bond auction, whilst Basic Resources welcome stable base metal prices. Overall, sectors do not portray a particular risk tone nor bias. In terms of individual movers, Tullow Oil (+3.2%) remains firm despite the latest turnaround in crude prices and following a trading update, whereby it cut its production guidance due to the sale of its Equatorial Guinea assets, while the CEO said the group has a solid financial footing and is making good progress. Chip names are also broadly firmer following source reports that Apple (+1.3% pre-market) is looking for up to a 20% increase in new iPhone production in 2021 due to a strong demand outlook.

Top European News

  • EU Set to Take Hungary and Poland to Court Over Anti-LGBTQ Laws
  • U.K. Used Car Prices Drive Inflation With Record Growth
  • U.K. Risks Irish Fury With Law to Halt Troubles Prosecutions
  • Gold Edges Up as Bond Yields, Dollar Ease After Inflation Spike

In FX, the RBNZ may have already upstaged the CBRT and BoC following its surprise announcement that QE under the guise of the LSAP will stop from next Friday, as risks have switched to a potential overshoot of monetary policy targets compared to undershoot previously. In response, money markets are now fully pricing in a first OCR hike in November and at least three of the more hawkish regional banks are predicting normalisation to start as early as next month. Hence, Nzd/Usd has formed a firmer base above 0.7000 having struggled to retain hold of the handle recently, but relative Kiwi strength is more evident via Aud/Nzd reversing around one big figure between 1.0720-1.0622 parameters as the Greenback retains post-US CPI momentum generally. Indeed, the index is establishing a more solid 92.500+ platform after eclipsing Tuesday’s peak and holding just over 92.600 following a subsequent pull-back within a 92.832-616 range vs 92.816-138 yesterday, and now eyeing PPI before Fed chair Powell part one, Kashkari and the latest Beige Book.

  • GBP – In similar vein to the Dollar, significantly stronger than anticipated UK headline and core inflation data has lifted the Pound, but like the Kiwi probably better seen in cross terms than Cable that has bounced from another close shave with 1.3800 to retest resistance above the half-round number, while Eur/Gbp has breached prior sub-0.8550 support more convincingly on the way to a 0.8513 low. Ahead, two BoE members get the opportunity to react to the CPI beats, including Cunliffe and Ramsden.
  • AUD/JPY/EUR/CAD/CHF – All sitting tight against their US peer following heavy losses in wake of the aforementioned hot US inflation report and a rather disappointing long bond sale that also boosted the Buck via a back-up in Treasury yields. However, the Aussie is displaying a degree of resilience either side of 0.7450 with the aid of a marked improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment to offset a further extension to lockdown in Sydney to at least July 30th and is now looking towards jobs data for some fundamental impetus, while the Yen has recovered from circa 110.70 to revisit 110.50. Elsewhere, the Euro is hovering below 1.1800, the Franc under 0.9200 and Loonie just shy of 1.2500, though off Tuesday’s trough irrespective of a retreat in crude prices ahead of Canadian manufacturing sales and the BoC that is expected to continue its measured asset purchase unwind by another Cad 1 bn/week clip.
  • SCANDI/EM – In contrast to the broad trend, Swedish inflation came in as expected or marginally mixed to leave the Sek on a softer footing near 10.2000 vs the Eur, while the Nok remains hostage to Brent and closer to 10.3500 than 10.3000, but the Try is trading sideways into the CBRT and Zar is striving to stop the rot amidst all the protests and civil backlash in SA that has now permeated oil production with the closure of Sapref’s 170k bpd refinery. Conversely, the Rub and Mxn are outperforming, perhaps on a combination of technical retracement and reports that Russian exporters are beginning to increase sales of foreign currency to cover upcoming dividend payments.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures succumbed to some pressure as European traders entered the fray and reacted to the overall bearish private inventory report in the absence of fresh COVID, OPEC+ or JCPOA-related news. The weekly release showed a narrower than expected draw for crude (-4.1mln vs exp. -4.4mln) and gasoline stockpiles (-1.5mln vs exp. -1.8mln), as well as a larger build in distillates (+3.7mln vs exp. +0.9mln). In terms of JCPOA commentary, sources downplayed the chances of a mid-August resumption of negotiations, but it was not denied. Further, outgoing Iranian President Rouhani suggested that Iran can enrich uranium to 90% (weapons-grade), if it desires. As a reminder, there have been no new developments on the Iran-IAEA monitoring deal. In terms of OPEC, analysts at Commerzbank expect the price of oil to end the year around USD 75/bbl, and the German bank still expects an OPEC+ agreement on an appropriate increase in output. Note, some delegates do not see the next meeting taking place until August. WTI resides around the bottom of its current USD 74.73-75.34 range, whilst its Brent counterpart is in a slightly narrower 76.04-76.57/bbl parameter. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver remain contained to their recent ranges around USD 1,800/oz and USD 26/oz, respectively, with not much to report on this front. LME copper remains stable near its recent lows under USD 9,500/oz. Dalian iron ore prices meanwhile edged higher overnight, ending the day with gains of 0.8% despite earlier demand concerns.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: June PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 5.6%, prior 5.3%
  • 8:30am: June PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
  • 8:30am: June PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.1%, prior 4.8%
  • 8:30am: June PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 6.7%, prior 6.6%
  • 8:30am: June PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
  • 8:30am: June PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My family came back after a 2 and a half day break last night and just as I was starting to miss them, chaos came in through the front door and it genuinely felt like a tornado had hit. It made me wonder whether a week away would have been better. My wife’s only comment was to ask me when I was going to take the children away on my own so she could have a break from them. I agreed that I would soon but without putting a date on this adventure/nightmare (delete as appropriate).

In terms of markets it really did feel like Groundhog Day after yesterday’s US CPI report. In fact, you could read the opening of the Early Morning Reid after last month’s release and have a pretty good idea of what just happened: another bumper print that surprised strongly to the upside, but a market reaction that basically shrugged it off. It was only a weak 30yr auction 4.5 hours later that eventually forced a sell-off in bonds as we’ll see below.

To run through what happened (even if you may have heard this script before), the CPI reading for June came in at an incredibly strong +0.9% month-on-month (vs. +0.5% expected), which is the fastest monthly gain in prices since 2008, and above every economist’s expectation on Bloomberg. In turn, that sent the year-on-year CPI print up to +5.4% (vs. +4.9% expected), which is also the strongest since 2008, and up from just +1.7% back in February. Nor can this simply be explained as a result of energy prices, which are up +24.5% over the last year, since the core CPI measure that excludes food and energy surprised to the upside at +4.5% (vs. +4.0% expected), marking the fastest rate of core inflation since 1991. To be fair used cars were up +10.5% mom (vs +7.3% in May and +10.0% in April) and we have evidence from Manheim that this is already turning. So this distortion will fade from the numbers relatively soon.

However, as I explored in my chart of the day yesterday, if this is simply a transitory phenomenon that’s down to things like the reopening and base effects, then why are we starting to see a rise in consensus forecasts for inflation in 2022, as well as 2021? By that point, any base effects should be moving out of the comparison again, so the fact that inflation forecasts are still creeping up for next year indicates that economists are starting to price in a more inflationary future than they thought and where it’ll become more and more difficult to maintain that full transitory argument. Either that or the transitory definition will have to be revised to cover several quarters rather than just months.

Treasuries saw quite a bit of intraday volatility yesterday as yields on 10yr Treasuries initially moved higher after the CPI print, with an intraday increase of more than +4bps. However, as investors once again bought into the narrative that this would prove transitory, and also moved to price in further hikes from the Federal Reserve that would dampen future inflation, yields then fell back again to -2.4bps lower on the day until 1PM EST when weak demand during a Treasury bond auction sent yields +6.2bps higher in the following half hour. Overall, 10yr yields finished yesterday +5.2bps higher at 1.417%, having risen over +16bps since last Thursday’s intra-day lows up to yesterday’s close. This morning in Asia they’ve pared back some of that increase however, with 10yr yields down -1.9bps.

That weak Treasury bond auction saw 30yr Treasury bonds tail by 2.4bps to draw a yield of 2.00%, the biggest miss in nearly a year according to Bloomberg. Yields on 30yr Treasuries rose +8.1bps shortly after the auction after being initially lower following the CPI print, to finish +4.9bps higher at 2.047%. At the short end of the curve, and in a reflection that markets were pricing in a faster hiking cycle, yields on 2yr Treasuries were up +2.6bps to 0.253%, however the move at the long end of the curve meant the 2s10s curve ended the day +2.6bps steeper after initially flattening shortly after the CPI print. The pricing of increased hikes also saw the US dollar index gain +0.56% yesterday to reach its highest level since early April. Staying with the reflation theme, note that WTI Oil (+1.55%) has also now recovered its OPEC+-related losses and closed at fresh 2.5 year highs yesterday

With the CPI release out of the way, today’s main highlight will now be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services at 5pm London time, before he follows up with the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see his response to the latest CPI report, particularly since markets responded by moving up the pace of future Fed hikes. Indeed, even though the FOMC adjusted their dots at their June meeting to show the first hike taking place in 2023, investors are still pricing in a first hike by the end of 2022, so there’s still a bit of a discrepancy between what the Fed are saying and current market pricing. Staying on the US, overnight we also got the news that Senate Democrats on the Budget Committee had agreed a $3.5tn spending bill that would push through much of President Biden’s agenda. Alongside the proposed $579bn bipartisan infrastructure plan, that would bring the total amount of spending if both passed to more than $4tn. That’s not a final number however, as the proposal would need to win support from all 50 Senate Democrats to pass via the reconciliation process.

Equity markets in Asia have lost ground this morning, with the Nikkei (-0.27%), the Hang Seng (-0.64%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.82%) and the KOSPI (-0.31%) all moving lower, as are futures in the US, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.09%. One of the biggest moves overnight has been in New Zealand however, with the New Zealand dollar strengthening +0.99% against the US dollar after the country’s central bank said it would end QE this month.

Back to yesterday, and equity markets largely trod water around the CPI release, with the S&P 500 dropping -0.35% from the previous day’s record high, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.03%) saw a slight increase. Tech stocks put in a stronger performance, with software (+0.87%) and tech hardware (+0.43%) the two best performing industries in the S&P. Regardless the NASDAQ (-0.38%) and the FANG+ index (-0.01%) both slipped from their record highs as yields rose but with small-cap stocks continuing to markedly underperform as the Russell 2000 fell -1.88%. Banks in particular weighed on the S&P with a -1.65% fall, which followed earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. JP Morgan (-1.4%) and Goldman (-1.2%) both posted their best and second-best investment banking quarters ever by revenues respectively, however both banks posted worse-then-expected fixed income trading revenues and higher costs than expected.

On the pandemic, case numbers continue to rise at the global level, with the total from John Hopkins up by more than 3m over the last week for the first time in over a month. That comes as multiple countries have begun to see cases rise once again, with every G7 country except Canada having begun to see at least some uptick in numbers. Here in the UK, cases continued to rise ahead of the English reopening on Monday, with the total UK figure at 36,660 yesterday, which is the highest yet of the latest wave and also the highest daily total since January 22. In better news however, European Commission President von der Leyen tweeted yesterday that over half of adults in the EU were now fully vaccinated.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the NFIB small business optimism index in the US for June came in at an 8-month high of 102.5 (vs. 99.5 expected). On the inflation theme however, the percentage of firms expecting higher selling prices stood at 47% in June, which is the highest share since January 1981.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will likely be the aforementioned appearance of Fed Chair Powell before the House Committee on Financial Services. There’s also the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a policy decision from the Bank of Canada, and remarks from the Fed’s Kashkari, the ECB’s Schnabel and the BoE’s Ramsden. Data releases include the US PPI reading for June, the UK CPI reading for June and the Euro Area’s industrial production for May. Meanwhile earnings releases include Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and BlackRock.


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