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Thursday, April 25, 2024

Bubble Watch – Maybe it only just started, Dow 50000 – Update 2

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

bubble-watch--maybe-it-only-just-started-dow-50000--update-2A brief chart post of why Dow 45,000 to 50,000 is on the table.



Many are forecasting a blow off top for stocks. This is fair, and it has happened a few times before, one lead into 1987 (first chart below, see A)  and another into 2000 (first chart below, see B and C) Dow Jones market tops.



The Detrending Price Oscillator (DPO) indicator measures price away from a simple moving average in percentage terms.



POINT: In short it measures how far the rubber band is stretched. 


Lets look at the DPO indicator. Currently today’s price position is at 3 (or 60%) this is equal to prior positions of 1 and 2 (first chart below). The DPO price (3) can move all the way up to prior tops of A,B and C, to X. If this happens, it will be equal to a Dow Jones price range of 44,000 and 50,000, see X??. This a percentage gain of 25% to 45%  (current Dow Jones is 35,000).



POINT: Investors will not want to miss out on these gains.


The red cycle shown on the Dow as worked very well over 100 years, please review the red cycle high during the 1987 top, this can happen again in 2021/22. History may not repeat exactly, but it sure can rhyme. 





Chart 1 – Dow with the DPO.



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DOW 1






Chart 2 – Price bands





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DOW 2




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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.”…



Jesse Livermore





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







…..“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..



Martin Zweig





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





…“To me, the ‘tape’ is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…



Martin Zweig







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