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US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

us-dollar-short-term-cycle-peak-nearThe US dollar is likely to peak near or soon after the FED Jackson Hole speech. The FED is testing market sentiment.

The FED is likely to taper its balance sheet (via Bullard, say starting 2022 Q2), the taper is likely to be with mortgage backed securities (not US Treasuries, unless they want the yield curve to shoot up). This should not wobble the markets too much.

The US dollar is rallying into the Jackson Hole speech, therefore it is normal market action to see the unwinding of shorts positions. Also, in truth no one knows if the FED will make a mistake (remember the taper tantrum). If you review the CTFC COT reports there is no explosion of open interest which supports the idea that short positions are being closed.

Cycles confirm the current emotions surrounding Jackson Hole time frame.

Cycle 1 – Short term DXY peak expected soon.

 

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DXY 1
 

Cycle 2 – Long View of the above, notice the fractal.

 

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DXY 2
 

 

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Changes in the world are the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff, and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however, some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

 

..“The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss”…

Richard D. Wyckoff

.."A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim"..

Kenneth Chang

…"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "…

John Templeton

..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..

Warren Buffet

.."it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”…

Bernard Burach
 

 


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