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Futures Slide On Evergrande, Stagflation, Energy Crisis Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Stock futures ticked lower on Monday, hurt by weakening sentiment in Asia and Europe amid growing worries about economic stagflation, the global energy crisis and renewed fears about property developer China Evergrande whose stock was halted overnight in Hong Kong, while Tesla shares rose after reporting a record number of electric vehicle deliveries. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.33%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 16.25 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 73.75 points, or 0.5%.

“The global chip and energy shortage is getting worse, the inflation is rising, the recovery may be slowing, and that puts central banks between a rock and a hard place,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “The best they could do is to do nothing, or to tighten their monetary policy to avoid losing control on the economy.”

The most notable overnight event was the suspension of trading in shares of debt-laden Evergrande which unsettled markets further about any fallout from its troubles even as media reports said the company would sell a stake in its property management unit for over $5 billion.

Wall Street’s main indexes were battered in September, hit by worries about the U.S. debt ceiling, the fate of a massive infrastructure spending bill and the meltdown of heavily indebted China Evergrande Group. On the second trading day of October, investors took a defensive stance, with a cautious approach to riskier assets as a spreading energy crunch meets concerns over the duration of broader rising prices and the tapering of economic stimulus efforts. Investors also kept close watch on rising U.S. Treasury yields after data last week showed increased consumer spending, accelerated factory activity and elevated inflation growth, which could help push the Federal Reserve towards tightening its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected.

Among individual stocks, Merck & Co. extended its gains from Friday on the results of its experimental Covid pill. The stock climbed 2.6% premarket. 3M shares fell 1.5% after J.P. Morgan cut its rating on the industrial conglomerate’s stock to “neutral” from “overweight”.  Here are some of the other notable premarket movers today:

  • Tesla (TSLA  US) shares climb 2.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading after the electric car maker reported record 3Q deliveries that easily beat estimates
  • Amplify Energy (AMPY US) shares plummet 33% in premarket trading after California beaches in northern Orange County were closed and wetlands contaminated by a huge oil spill caused by a broken pipeline off the coast
  • DHT Holdings (DHT US) shares rose as much as 3.7% in Friday extended trading after the company said it bought 1.23m of its own shares
  • Offerpad Solutions (OPAD US) was down 3.1% Friday postmarket after registering shares for potential sale
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM US) shares rose as much as 23% in Friday extended trading after co. reported new long-term data from the OPTIC clinical trial of ADVM-022 single, in-office intravitreal injection gene therapy

Markets also awaited U.S. Joe Biden’s new plan on China trade strategy, with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai set for new talks with Beijing later in the day over its failure to keep promises made in a “Phase 1” trade deal struck with former President Donald Trump. Biden's new plan follows a top-to-bottom review of import tariffs and other measures imposed by the Trump administration; reports also said that USTR will today say that China is not complying with the Phase 1 deal.

Europe's Stoxx 600 Index trades flat, erasing earlier losses of as much as 0.6%, helped by gains in health care and basic resources shares. The healthcare sub index rose 0.8% after AstraZeneca’s Enhertu got a breakthrough therapy designation while basic resources sub-index up 0.3% as iron ore rallies. Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.2% having declined as much as 1% at the open. FTSE MIB lags on the recovery; FTSE 100 trades flat. Autos, banks and travel names are the weakest sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Adler Group shares jump as much as 18%, briefly erasing the previous week’s declines, after the firm said it’s reviewing strategic options that may result in a sale of assets
  • Wm Morrison declines as much as 3.8% after the offer terms from winning bidder CD&R disappointed investors
  • Sainsbury rises as much as 5.9% and Tesco gains 1.7% on speculation that CD&R’s Morrison deal may drive further interest in Britain’s grocery sector at a time when cash-rich buyout funds are stalking undervalued U.K. companies; also, a report says Tesco will announce a share buyback program this week
  • Plus500 gains as much as 6.1% after the contracts-for-difference trading firm says full-year profit will beat market expectations
  • Bewi rises as much as 9.9% after the owner of 50% of building products company Jackon Holding accepted Bewi’s offer
  • BT slumps as much as 7.8% to a six-month low following a Telegraph report that Sky is closing in on a broadband investment deal with Virgin Media O2, raising worries over competition
  • Azelio falls as much as 22% after newspaper Dagens Industri raised questions about orders for the renewable energy equipment developer
  • Aryzta tumbles as much as 13% after results, halting a four-day winning streak
  • Frasers falls as much as 12%, the most since December. Bank of America cut the owner of the Sports Direct retail chain to underperform from buy

Asia stocks also declined, with Hong Kong shares a drag, after debt-ridden China Evergrande Group’s trading was suspended while investors also sold health care-related names and appeared wary heading into the final quarter of 2021. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.8%. Vaccine maker CanSino Biologics and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group were the biggest decliners on the measure as Merck & Co. said its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill cuts the risk of hospitalization and death in half.

“Investors will need to take a sell-first ask-later stance given current elevated valuation levels of vaccine stocks,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. Also weighing on traders’ minds is the global energy crisis, which has spread to India and is stoking inflation concerns. Speculation about the potential restructuring of China Evergrande Group, which has suspended trading of its Hong Kong shares, is also affecting sentiment at a time liquidity is thinner. The mainland Chinese market is closed through Thursday for Golden Week holidays. Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index was among the top-performing gauges in Asia Pacific as the country takes steps toward further reopening. Measures across the cyclicals-heavy Southeast Asian markets also rose, while tech stocks including Alibaba and Meituan took a hit. Asian assets will be sold alongside global peers in the short term, said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But we think cyclical sectors, especially exporters, should also perform well for the rest of the year, especially as more Asian economies are seeing a rising level of vaccination,” he added.

Japanese equities fell for a sixth-straight day, as investor concerns deepened over contagion from China’s real-estate sector woes on the suspension of trading in shares of Evergrande and its property management unit. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which declined 0.6%, capping its worst losing streak since February 2020. Tokyo Electron and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 1.1% drop in the Nikkei 225. “It’s possible Evergrande news flow is impacting Japan stocks, the issues surrounding the property firm aren’t resolved,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. “It’s also important to keep in mind markets overall have been in risk-off mood since the latter half of September.” Travel and retail stocks gained, following U.S. peers higher after promising results for Merck’s experimental Covid-19 pill and amid signs of a pick-up in Japanese department-store sales. Meanwhile, Fumio Kishida was appointed prime minister by parliament Monday, and was set to reveal a new cabinet lineup as he seeks to revive support for his ruling party ahead of a general election that could likely come this month.

In rates, Treasuries are near session lows, the 10Y TSY pushing on 1.50% cheaper by ~3.5bp on the day and near middle of last week’s 1.44%-1.565% range in early U.S. session after erasing gains that pushed yields to lowest levels in a week. 5s30s curve at ~111.7bp is steeper by nearly 2bp, probing 50-DMA and approaching last week’s high. Gilts led the selloff during European morning as regional stocks recovered from a weak open. Curve steepens, with long-end yields cheaper by around 4bp vs Friday’s close.  Peripheral spreads widen with long end Italy underperforming. Semi-core spreads tighten at the margin.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar index is little changed; NOK, CAD and CHF are the best performers in G-10, JPY lags but trading ranges are narrow. Crude futures hold slightly in the red in choppy trade. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady and the greenback traded in tight ranges against its Group-of-10 peers. The euro reversed a modest decline to trade above $1.16, while the pound hovered after touching its highest level in nearly a week during the Asia session. Expected volatility is now at the highest in five months. The currency fell to a year-to-date low last week amid concerns over soaring energy prices, falling business confidence and the end of the government’s furlough scheme. The Aussie dollar was flat and option markets aren’t expecting the RBA’s policy decision Tuesday to be an eventful one for spot. The yen inched lower after earlier touching a one-week high when concern over potential contagion from indebted Chinese developer Evergrande weighed on Japanese stocks.

In commodities, WTI is down 0.25% near $75.70, Brent just 0.1% lower near $79.20 ahead of today’s OPEC+ virtual gathering. Spot gold drops ~$10 to test Friday’s low near $1,750/oz. Base metals trade well with LME aluminum and zinc rising over 1% to outperform peers.

Bitcoin and cryptos dropped after a burst higher late on Sunday, following the China Evergrande suspension even though i) the news appears to be positive and is in relation to the latest asset sale and ii) China has banned trading in cryptos, so it wasn't exactly clear why any mainlanders would be selling to meet margin calls.

On today's calendar, we get August factory orders, and the final August durable goods orders, core capital goods orders. We also get more central bank speakers including Fed's Bullard, BoE’s Ramsden, ECB Vice President de Guindos and ECB’s Makhlouf.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,324.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 453.24
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 194.02
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 629.26
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 28,444.89
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,973.92
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 24,036.37
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,568.17
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 59,391.71
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,278.54
  • Kospi down 1.6% to 3,019.18
  • Brent Futures little changed at $79.22/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,752.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.96
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to -0.210%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1613

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China Evergrande Group and its property-services arm were halted in Hong Kong stock trading amid a report that the developer agreed to sell a controlling stake in the unit to raise much- needed cash
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he won’t fall back on immigration to solve the U.K.’s truck driver shortage, as he presented supply chain troubles that have left supermarket shelves bare and gas stations dry as a “period of adjustment” in the wake of Brexit and the pandemic
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reset the clock on Saturday, giving lawmakers until Halloween to strike a deal on both the bipartisan $550 billion infrastructure deal and a broader, signature package of social spending, health care and tax measures they must pass with only Democratic votes
  • Germany’s Social Democrats under chancellor-in-waiting Olaf Scholz signaled progress in talks with the Greens on forming a coalition government with the Free Democrats, while Angela Merkel’s bloc kept the door ajar for a conservative-led alliance
  • Japan’s Fumio Kishida was appointed prime minister by parliament Monday, and is set to reveal a new cabinet lineup as he seeks to revive support for his ruling party ahead of a general election that could likely come this month.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed as ongoing Evergrande default concerns clouded over the initial optimism following Friday’s rebound on Wall St where all major indices found some reprieve from last week’s downturn, although the S&P 500 still suffered its worst weekly performance since February and US equity futures also failed to hold on to opening gains with this week’s upcoming risk events adding to the cautiousness including the OPEC+ meeting later today, a bout of Asia-Pac central bank policy decisions from Tuesday and Friday’s NFP job data. The ASX 200 (+1.3%) outperformed, with the index unfazed by the absence of key market participants with mainland China away for Golden Week, South Korea closed due to National Foundation Day, and amid the quasi-holiday conditions in Australia as New South Wales observed Labour Day. Nonetheless, the local benchmark was propped up by the top-weighted financials sector with shares in Australia’s largest bank CBA boosted following a AUD 6.0bln off-market buyback and with reopening stocks, especially those in the travel industry, among the biggest gainers. The Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) wiped out its opening advances despite the lack of significant news catalyst for the reversal which was spearheaded by exporter names, while the focus in Japan turned to PM Kishida’s confirmation in parliament and for details of the new Cabinet members. The Hang Seng (-2.2%) was heavily pressured by losses in health and biotech stocks, while property names also suffered amid the current Evergrande fears after a USD 260mln note from Jumbo Fortune Enterprises matured on Sunday which was guaranteed by China Evergrande Group and its unit Tianji Holding Ltd, while there is no grace period for the payment but five days will be allowed for administrative or technical errors. Furthermore, shares of Evergrande, its property services unit and structured products have all been halted which reports circulating that Hopson Development is to acquire a 51% stake in Evergrande Property Services for HKD 40bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked recent upside in T-notes and with support also from the negative mood in Japanese stocks, as well as the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 1tln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 1yr-5yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore Eyes More Vaccinated Travel Lanes in Cautious Reopen
  • India Farm Protests Gather Momentum After 4 Demonstrators Killed
  • U.S. Natural Gas Jumps Amid Strong Overseas Demand for Fuel
  • Suzuki Takes Japan Finance Reins as Election, Stimulus Loom

Major bourses in Europe have adopted somewhat of a mixed picture (Euro Stoxx 50 Unch; Stoxx 600 -0.2%), following on from the broad-based downbeat cash open seen as Europe picked up the baton from APAC. US equity futures see modest losses across the board but have again drifted off worst levels. Nonetheless, the NQ (-0.5%) remains the slight laggard vs its RTY (-0.1%), ES (-0.2%) and YM (-0.4%) counterparts. Sectors are now mixed with a slight defensive tilt, with Healthcare and Food & Beverages among the top gainers, whilst financials bear the brunt of the yield decline on Friday, with Banks at the foot of the bunch. In terms of individual movers, Morrisons (-3.8%) has accepted CD&R’s takeover offer, which has left Fortress empty-handed but has fanned speculation that the group may look towards Sainsbury’s (+5.9%), Tesco (+1.7%) or Marks & Spencer (+1.5%) as potential targets, with the former being the best suitor, according to reports. Elsewhere BT (-7%) plumbed the depths with some citing reports that Sky is to partner with Virgin Media-O2 in a move set to intensify the challenge to BT’s infrastructure builder Openreach.

Top European News

  • U.K.’s Fuel Crisis Has at Least a Week to Run as Army Steps In
  • Adler Group Weighs Asset Sales to Cut Debt After Multiple Bids
  • Amazon Rival Noon to Raise $2 Billion From Backers Including PIF
  • Romanian Billionaire Petrescu Dies in Plane Crash Near Milan

In FX, the broader Dollar and index remain caged to a tight range, with the latter within a narrow 93.900-94.104 band after last week printing a new YTD peak at 94.504. The Dollar remains on standby as risk events are abundant this coming week, including deliberations on Capitol Hill and Friday’s NFP. In terms of the developments in Washington, congressional leaders set a new unofficial month-end deadline to pass the infrastructure bill, and USD 3.5tln spending package, and House progressives were reported to offer to reduce spending to save the bill and are willing to compromise on the USD 3.5tln amount with limits but rejected moderate Democrat Senator Manchin’s USD 1.5tln offer. Over to the Fed and a story to keep on the radar – Fed’s Clarida (seen as the nucleus of the Fed) reportedly shifted out of a bond fund into a stock fund last year, which occurred a day prior to Fed Chair Powell issuing a statement of potential policy action due to the pandemic. A spokesperson passed this off as “pre-planned” balancing, but a similar situation led to the early resignation of Kaplan and Rosengren. Elsewhere, USTR Tai is to today unveil the China trade policy following a top-to-bottom review of the Trump admin’s tariffs and other measures. The pre-release noted that the US would begin a process to exempt certain products from tariffs on Chinese imports, with the US also seeking a meeting on Phase 1. That being said, officials noted that all tools remain on the table when asked about further tariffs. Net-net, the release was constructive and, as such, provided tailwinds to the CNH, whereby USD/CNH dipped from 6.4560 to a low of 6.4385.

  • AUD, NZD, CAD – The non-US Dollars somewhat vary with the Loonie attached to price action in the oil complex heading into the OPEC+ meeting later today. The NZD outperforms in the G10 bunch, with the AUD on the other side of the spectrum in what is a busy central bank week for the antipodeans. The AUD/NZD cross will likely take some focus as the RBNZ is poised to hike its OCR, whilst the RBA is seen holding policy steady. AUD/NZD has made its way back towards 1.4050 from its 1.0485 overnight high. NZD/USD meanders around 0.6950 (0.6927-53 range) whilst AUD/USD hovers around the 0.7250 mark (where AUD 1bln of OpEx resides), with the 21 DMA at 0.7295 and the 50 at 0.7311.
  • EUR, GBP – Both European majors trade relatively flat in the European morning, but Brexit rhetoric has ramped up with UK Brexit Minister Frost warning the EU that the UK is prepared to trigger Article 16 unless the EU agrees to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol. There were separate reports that ministers will be given a deadline of the end of next month to decide on whether to suspend the Northern Ireland Brexit deal unilaterally, and senior sources warned that unless the EU was prepared to engage in a “serious negotiation” during the coming weeks, the government would have no choice but to suspend the deal by December. EUR/GBP topped its 100 and 21 DMAs (both at 0.8566) after finding a floor at its 100 DMA (0.8546). EUR/USD is back above 1.1600 (vs 1.1588 base) with EUR 1bln options expiring at the figure. GBP/USD hovers mid-range between 1.3534-77.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have clambered off worst levels but remain tentative ahead of the OPEC+ confab later today (full preview in the Newsquawk Research Suite). In terms of the long and short of it, markets expect OPEC+ to stick to its plan of raising monthly oil output by +400k BPD; albeit, some look for a larger-than-planned hike. Oil journalists have said this morning that despite the noise surrounding a greater-than-planned hike, ministers expect the current plan to be maintained, although drama in the meeting cannot be omitted. Upside during the European session coincided with headlines suggesting “OPEC+ is seen keeping output policy unchanged”, citing sources, although this was poorly phrased as it incorrectly intimates production being unchanged as opposed to plans for the 400k BPD hike being unchanged. Other things to be aware of aside from OPEC, BioNTech CEO expects the virus to likely mutate and that a new vaccine formulation could be required by the middle of next year, according to the FT, whilst the Gulf of Oman has seen cyclone Shaheen hit the area, although exports are not expected to be impacted yet aside from a delay in loadings. WTI Nov resides just under 76/bbl (75.30-76.20 range) whilst Brent Dec hovers sub USD 79.50/bbl (78.75-79.50/bbl range.) Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been drifting lower in tandem with the rise in yields seen throughout the morning, with the former briefly dipping under USD 1,750/oz whilst spot silver fell under USD 22.40/oz. Turning to base metals, LME copper posts modest gains and remains north of USD 9,000/t, with some dip-buying being cited.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Aug. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7%
  • 10am: Aug. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5%
  • 10am: Aug. -Less Transportation, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: Aug. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: Aug. Factory Orders, est. 1.0%, prior 0.4%
  • 10am: Aug. Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8%
  • 10am: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Panel Discussion on the Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s certainly an odd financial world at the moment. The negatives are obvious and revolve mostly around delta, weaker than expected growth, the energy crisis, ever higher inflation and tighter central bank policy. The positives are that the base effects with numerous lockdowns imposed in Q4 2020 to at least the start of Q3 2021 mean that it won’t be that difficult for growth to still be numerically healthy for a few more quarters. So once the disappointment of growth not being as high as was hoped at this stage fades we should still be left with decent growth. Famous last words but covid should play less and less part in our lives over the year ahead as vaccines and better treatments (eg Merck antiviral pill news on Friday) become more and more widespread. In addition, stimulus and excess savings remain high and financial conditions are still very loose. While regular readers will know I’ve long been beating the drum on higher inflation and will continue to do so, I’m not convinced that growth is rolling over enough for stagflation to be the best description of the outlook for the next 12 months. However I suppose much depends on how you define it.

Whilst on the topic of the energy crisis, the world is full of pictures of the UK population queuing for petrol because of a perceived shortage of HGV drivers. We’ll never know if there was actually a shortage that would have threatened fuel supplies as when the story broke 10 days ago panic set in and we had a fuel run (not as shocking as a bank run but formed from the same cloth) as the population desperately tried to refuel. My wife decided to hold out thinking the situation would resolve itself. However by Saturday night we had 10 miles left in the tank and during the day she had passed 6-7 petrol stations with either no fuel or huge queues. As we were putting the kids to bed she announced that she was getting desperate and stressed about it and was going to go out now as she was worried she wouldn’t be able to take the kids to school this week if she didn’t go out to the local area to try to find petrol. I said she was crazy to go at peak time (partly as I didn’t want to put the kids to bed alone – tough on crutches) and urged her to go very early Sunday morning instead. She ignored me and ventured out on what I thought was a suicide mission. 20 minutes later she was back with a full tank! I’ve no idea how and I won’t ask! I apologised!

Outside of all the ongoing energy and stagflation chatter, all roads this week point to payrolls Friday as unless there is a marked deterioration across the whole sweep of labour market indicators within the report, this will likely be the catalyst to cement the November taper barring an exogenous or market shock. Investors will also be increasingly focused on the US debt ceiling deadline, whilst Congress simultaneously grapples with the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation package. Elsewhere on the political scene, coalition negotiations in Germany will be important to look out for, as the parties seek to form a government after the election.

Before we look ahead, markets have started the week with a risk-off tone, with Asian equities including the Hang Seng (-2.17%), Kospi (-1.62%), the Nikkei (-0.95%) all moving lower while markets in China remain closed. Stocks pared gains on the news that Evergrande’s trading had been suspended in Hong Kong, with a filing from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange saying that this was “pending the release by the Company of an announcement containing inside information about a major transaction.” Meanwhile Bloomberg reported earlier that Evergrande had guaranteed a dollar note worth $260m with an official due date of Oct 3 by Jumbo Fortune Enterprises, making the effective due date today since maturity was on a Sunday. Elsewhere in Asia, NHK reported that Japan’s incoming Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, planned to hold a general election on October 31, and looking forward, US equity futures are also pointing lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.32%.

Looking ahead, the US jobs report will be one of the main macro highlights this week, and follows last month’s release that strongly underwhelmed expectations, with nonfarm payrolls growth of just +235k in August being the slowest since January. So another poor release would not be welcome news even if it did reflect labour shortages. In terms of what to expect this time around, our US economists are forecasting a pickup in September, with nonfarm payrolls growing by +400k, and the unemployment rate ticking down to a post-pandemic low of 5.1%. Remember in the weak report last month, yields rose on the day as markets focused on the wage increases rather than the poor headline number. As we said at the time the bond reaction to last month’s report probably helped signal the end of the extreme positive technicals and short positioning in treasuries. Over the summer strong inflation and decent data couldn’t help treasuries sell off, indicating bullet proof technicals but the period around last month’s release seemed to turn the tide the other way a bit.

The other important data release this week will be the global services and composite PMIs out tomorrow, which will give an indication of how the economy has fared into the end of Q3. That said, the flash readings we’ve already had have indicated slowing growth momentum across the major economies, so it will be interesting to see where things progress from here.

Turning to the US, negotiations in Congress will be in focus as legislators face the debt ceiling deadline this month (expected to be breached around October 18th according to Treasury Secretary Yellen last week), just as the Democrats are also seeking to pass a $550bn bipartisan infrastructure bill and a reconciliation package. On Saturday, Speaker Pelosi seemed to suggest that the new deadline was October 31st for the bipartisan bill which highlights how much difference there still is between the progressives and moderates on the reconciliation package. Will they eventually find a compromise for a lower amount than the original $3.5tn (maybe around $2tn) that makes nether side happy but gets the legislation through?

Staying on the political scene, there’ll also be a focus on coalition negotiations in Germany, where exploratory talks have now begun between the parties. The Greens and the liberal FDP will be key to forming a majority in the new Bundestag, with 210 seats between them, as both the centre-left SPD and the conservative CDU/CSU bloc still hope to lead the next coalition. Initial exploratory talks began with the SPD yesterday, and the FDP have also spoken to the CDU/CSU, with the Greens set to follow tomorrow.

On the central bank side it’s a quieter week ahead, with the two G20 policy decisions expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia (tomorrow) and the Reserve Bank of India (Friday). In Australia, our economist is expecting no change in policy and a reaffirmation of their dovish policy outlook. And in India, our economist also expects the MPC to keep all key policy rates unchanged, with our base case remaining for a reverse repo rate liftoff starting from December. The day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual.

Back to last week, and global equity markets slid for the third week out of the last four as the S&P 500 fell -2.21%, with a +1.15% increase on Friday not stopping the index from having its worst week since the end of February. The losses were primarily led by growth and technology stocks as the NASDAQ declined -3.20% on the week, while cyclicals such as banks (+1.92%) and energy (+5.78%) stocks outperformed. European equities similarly fell back, as the STOXX 600 ended the week -2.24% lower after Friday’s -0.42% loss came prior to a late US rally.

Global sovereign bonds sold off for a sixth straight week, though most of that selling came in the first two days as the global risk-off tone caused investors to search for havens. US 10yr Treasury yields still ended the week up +1.1bps, despite Friday’s -2.6bp decline. Bond yields in Europe moved higher as well, with those on 10yr bunds increasing +0.4bps, to trade at their highest levels since early-July. And 10yr yields on French OATs (+1.2bps) and Italians BTPs (+3.1bps) also rose further. UK gilts underperformed them all with yields increasing +7.7bps. The major driver of the move in global yields was rising inflation expectations with US 10yr breakevens increasing +4.5bps, while 10yr bund and breakevens rose +9.3bps to reach their highest level since 2013 and gilt breakevens (+3.5bps) rose to their highest level since 2008 even though they were much higher mid-week.

The US September ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.1 from 59.9 in the prior month even as supply bottlenecks intensified. This along with strong demand readings from businesses and consumers have led to higher prices which are mostly being passed onto consumers. This was seen in the PCE deflator data from Friday which showed prices rose 4.3% (4.2% expected) y/y with the core reading increasing 3.6% (3.5% expected) y/y. The University of Michigan survey showed respondents’ inflation expectations in a year dropped slightly from the initial reading 4.6% (4.7% initial , 4.8% exp), which was in-line with last month. 5-10yr expectations remain elevated at 3.0%. Overall the sentiment reading of 72.8 (71.0 prior) was better than the initial survey but still was the fifth worst reading in a decade, with only last month and the early months of the pandemic having been lower. Separately, Euro-area inflation reached its highest level since September 2008 on Friday as the headline September CPI print registered at 3.4% y/y (3.3% expected) in September, fuelled by the cost of energy and travel. Meanwhile, in Europe the manufacturing PMI readings were largely in-line with the preliminary readings with the Euro Area print sitting at 58.6 (58.7 prior) with Germany (58.4) and France (55.0) both just under their prior readings.


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