Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Labor Market Starts To Crack: Jobless Claims Rise To 3 Month High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One week after we learned that in Q1, US GDP had "shockingly" contracted, just one pillar was left holding up the "strong" US economy, the same economy that the Fed's record tightening cycle is hoping to push into recession: the labor market. However, that too has now turned, and after a big ADP private payrolls miss, after the ISM manufacturing employment index printed just shy of contraction where the ISM Services employment index already is, and after the first positive print in the Challenger job cuts index since Jan 2021…

… it now appears that the labor market has also officially peaked, because moments ago the BLS reported that in the week ending April 30, initial claims jumped 200,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level, 20K more than the 180K consensus forecast, and the highest print since February 11, a troubling confirmation that the best days for the US jobs market are now behind us.

Indeed, looking at the "hard" labor market data shows that it has just dropped to the worst level since November 2021.

The breakdown by state did not show any notable outliers with the exception of New York State which saw the biggest increase in claims by a large factor.

That said, even though the labor market has peaked, there is clearly still a ways to go before the US jobs market is in freefall, although now that weakness is starting to set in, keep a very close eye on tomorrow's April payrolls and especially the hourly earnings print – any big disappointment there, and the Fed's tightening campaign will prove much shorter than virtually anyone expects, and if anything, will segue right into easing and QE some time in late 2022 – around the time the next recession hits.


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!





You must be logged in to make a comment.
You can sign up for a membership or get a FREE Daily News membership or log in

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!