Rabobank: So Much Today Is So Stupid

By Michael every of Rabobank

Today can be summarised with one word – ‘payrolls’. Indeed, short is best. Also given so much today is so stupid it does not deserve a detailed response, I am using emoticons as commentary:

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The Fed’s Brainard and Mester were hawkish and the market is pricing more than 175bp of hikes:

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Goldman warned of an “unprecedented, complex, dynamic environment”; BlackRock added inflation will stay high for years due to supply chain snarls:

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OPEC+ reshuffled the same old cards, and energy prices closed the session higher:

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The US floated a profits tax on energy firms, disincentivising any new domestic energy supply:

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Yet US stocks rallied and the US dollar sold off (on bad data and, perhaps, Fed swaps?):

The White House is reportedly shaking up its economic team:

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If so, Treasury Secretary Yellen, whose CNN interview saying she got inflation wrong because she couldn’t have known about supply-side shocks was a shocker, will be de-emphasised:

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Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and Director of the National Economic Council Deese will be elevated – Deese authored this week’s Wall Street Journal op-ed that said, “Over to you, Fed.”

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Importantly, China continues to come out of lock-down… as community infections return again a day after opening up:

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Indeed, ‘Once lauded for predictability, uncertainty haunts the Chinese economy – Policy U-turns and a heavy-handed, unpredictable coronavirus control strategy are fraying nerves’:

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So, markets will be looking at payrolls today like this:

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But still seem minded to react to data and events in ways that make many feel like this:

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Meanwhile, President Biden is going to Saudi Arabia, and is upgrading defense ties with the UAE:

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As ‘China Warns New Zealand Against Squandering Trade Ties: Beijing envoy says economic relationships shouldn’t be taken for granted’ after this week’s Kiwi shift closer to the US:

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The US says it may ban goods from China’s Xinjiang as soon as 21 June:

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The EU is rapidly upgrading its economic ties with Taiwan, as is the US:

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Yet ‘Beijing urges US to cut military ties with Taiwan’ after Secretary of Defence Austin said he would make available ‘defence articles and services’ to defend against ‘the Chinese threat’:

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In short, most developments are deeply:

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Yet markets somehow still expect this to happen:

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Or this:

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So, I mostly feel like this:

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But now, until payrolls, it’s time to:

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Happy Friday!     

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