With European PMIs plunging in June, and US Macro Surprise data collapsing, it was perhaps somewhat surprising that analysts only expected a marginal drop in preliminary June US PMIs. And we were right to be surprised as the data printed dramatically below expectations.
US Manufacturing dropped from 57.0 to 52.4 (below 56.0 expectations)
US Services dropped from 53.4 to 51.6 (below 53.3 expectations)
The manufacturing print is the weakest since June 2020, and Services at 5-month lows (but very close to two-year lows too).
This dragged the US Composite PMI tumbled to 51.2 – a 5-month low – signaling notable weakness in Q2 GDP (and Q3 GDP)…
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter. The survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of less than 1% in June, with the goods-producing sector already in decline and the vast service sector slowing sharply.
“Having enjoyed a mini-boom from consumers returning after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders.
“There has consequently been a remarkable drop in demand for goods and services during June compared to prior months.
“Businesses have become much more concerned about the outlook as a result of the rising cost of living and drop in demand, as well as the increasingly aggressive interest rate path outlined by the Federal Reserve and the concomitant deterioration in broader financial conditions.
Business confidence is now at a level which would typically herald an economic downturn, adding to the risk of recession.
“A corollary of the drop in demand was less pressure on prices, with the survey’s inflation gauges for firms’ costs and their selling prices falling sharply in June to suggest that, although still elevated, price pressures have peaked.”
So it seems Powell is getting his wish as the US plunges into recession… and that tanks inflation.