While we keep being told that the labor market is ‘too strong to be in recession’, anyone who cares to look at the higher frequency data will see that narrative coll;apsing fast as initial jobless claims rose to 256k last week (worse than the 250k expected)…
While continuing claims continue to flatline, the 4-week average of initial cl;aims is now at its worst level since November 2021.
How long before the BLS’ payrolls data catches up to reality? Will we see a million job losses tomorrow?
And how long after that will The Fed pivot?
Just FYI, we have seen this kind of decoupling before…
…and it didn’t end well for the recession-deniers.