A slow-down in headline retail price growth was expected due to falling gas prices, but ex-Autos/Gas, sales (notional remember) were expected to rise.
BofA debit/credit card data shows headline retail sales missing due to drop in gas prices but core retail sales beating due to sure in real spending pic.twitter.com/EbGQhAnbjS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 17, 2022
Analysts were almost right with the headline actually unchanged MoM (below the +0.1% expectation) but ex-Autos up 0.7% MoM vs +0.4% expected.
So pretty much everything was higher apart from autos, gasoline, and general merchandise stores…
Notional retail sales have not fallen for 7 straight months which pushed the YoY retail sales growth higher for both headline and core…
Finally, after 4 straight months ‘real’ retail sales drops, real retail sales were flat in July (this is core retail sales minus CPI – which admittedly is not apples to oranges but is good enough for government work to get an idea of the actual changes in spending)…
Furthermore, notional retail sales are increasingly being funded by soaring credit card debt – not exactly a sign of confidence by the consumer; more a sign of desperation to maintain a standard of living.