11.5 C
New York
Monday, January 30, 2023

Subscribe

Stocks, Bonds, & Black Gold Battered In Ugly Week Ahead Of Fed

A relatively quiet (but weak) macro week (Jobs weak, inflation hot, surveys slump) and the pre-Fed blackout meant the combination of pre-holiday low liquidity and headline risk chopped market around intraday with stocks hurting (Small Caps and Big-Tech worst), bond yields higher (in the belly of the curve), and a bloodbath in black gold (as WTI fell to one-year lows).

US Macro Surprise data has drifted sideways for almost three months now – Goldilocks-like perhaps…

Source: Bloomberg

But amid the sparse macro data (claims, PPI etc), the market’s expectations for The Fed’s terminal rate was unchanged and the market’s expectations for rate-cuts in H2 2023 also ended unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

All the majors puked lower on the hotter than expected PPI this morning then the machines levitated things for a few hours until Europe was closed. Then the last 15 mins saw stocks puked to the lows of the day…

Small Caps were the week’s worst performers (down 5%), followed by Nasdaq and S&P and The Dow was the prettiest horse in the glue factory…

The S&P 500 held above its 100DMA…

All sectors ended the week in the red with Energy by far the worst. Utes outperformed with a very small loss on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Tech has been outperforming energy stocks since the start of November…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasuries were sold hard today, erasing all of the week’s gains for the long-bond, and leaving the rest of the curve notably higher in yield (belly underperforming)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) ended flatter (more inverted) on the week, but barely after a big steepening day today post-PPI…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week higher, but back in the range from Friday’s payrolls pump and dump)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were broadly unchanged on the week, despite some intraday volatility (BTC up marginally, ETH down marginally)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the week back above $17,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices are down 6 straight days, with WTI ending the week down over 12% with a $70 handle – its worst week since the first week of April – and back at one-year lows (-2% YoY, first decline since Jan 2021)…

As fund managers abandon black gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week unchanged, above $1800, while silver outperformed modestly…

Finally, will we get a sense of deja vu all over again next week when The Fed hikes?

Source: Bloomberg

Would that kind of downsing be enough to tighten financial conditions and allow Powell to lift his boot from the market’s neck?

This post was originally published on this site

Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Stay Connected

159,327FansLike
407,353FollowersFollow
2,150SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x