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Sunday, January 29, 2023


Conference Board Confidence Surged In December, Inflation Expectations Tumbled

Analysts expected The Conference Board’s Confidence survey to improve marginally in December with the present situation holding remarkably strong given the chaos seen everywhere else in the US economy. The actual print soared above expectations (108.3 vs 101.0 exp) to its highest in 8 months, led by a surge in both Expectations (from 76.7 to 82.4) and Present Situation (from 138.3 to 147.2). Expectations are at the highest since Jan 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The Conference Board’s measure of labor market tightness improved (more jobs plentiful vs hard to get) in December…

Source: Bloomberg

The Conference Board’s sentiment remains notably decoupled from UMich’s sentiment measure…

Source: Bloomberg

…but the trend on both is anything but positive.

Finally, The Conference Board’s gauge of inflation expectations dropped to its lowest since August 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Good news for Mr.Powell.

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