Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!
JRW III
Phil - Rode the /QM down from 99.65 at 7pm and now I'm taking your advice, taking the $$ and going to enjoy a restful night sleep. I don't post often so I want to say thanks for sharing your incredible market acumen with all of us. Your site has a unusually talented group of investors (and some characters) and I enjoy my days trading more because of it.
DaveW
Phil/ Thanks to your obsessive bearish anxiety over the last few weeks, I made money on the long side this month, phased gradually to bearish, came in net short today and managed to make money both long and short all week, ending today [and each day this week] in the green. I don't know how you do it, but thank you.
Zeroxzero
Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here
Mopar
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!
Deano
Phil – I think I finally figured out your "crystal ball" time frame. You're about 5-14 days AHEAD of what the market is going to do. It's taken me a long time to realize this, but boy it's been profitable. I go in when you recommend something at about 25% allocation, and then add to it each day it "goes the wrong way" Then BOOM, one day it's all good…. The long put list was literally exact in it's timing.
Burrben
Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.
Craigsa620
The legendary Phil Davis has done it again with his call to "get out of the market now" (12/05/2017). Congratulations Phil, and while I am at it, I again would like to Thank You for your advise given me in March '09, when you said "unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then get in this market with both feet"...... and what a ride that was !
1234gel
Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.
RMM
Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.
Craigsa620
A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.
ZKatkin
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!
Jromeha
I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
2Can
Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.
IHS4GOD
Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.
Jomptien
Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"
Gel1
What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????
Jablams
Phil you are great, and not only is your market info spot on but you have the courage to call it like it is and write about it in a great tone.
Flanger
Thank you Phil we appreciate all the work you put in to teach us valuable lessons about investing.
Pat Swap
I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.
Kustomz
I am about 1000 hours into learning about investing. While, I have tried other websites along the way, they don't teach or focus on selling premiums and certainly don't have your mindset. Anyway, I have a lot to learn and look forward to the new portfolios.
So, thank ALL of you for being patient and teaching others how to "Be the House and not the Gambler"!
GrassHopper67
I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.
TokyoLife
Thanks super helpful re: UGN example…..other inflation/market-correction-defensive-related play you threw out that has jammed UP in less than a month is TITN 6/14 $15 puts, up 40%. Excuse my enthusiasm but haven't had those types of gains in multiple plays in years let alone days doing it on my own…….maybe I should host the PSW infomercial!!!!
stevegeb200
Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.
Winston
Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!
Rookie IRA Investor
I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!
Iflantheman
I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.
Denlundy
I must add yet another paen to Phil's "cash and short" call, as my TZA shorts are past paying for Similac and Pampers and have now covered all doctors and Mt. Sinai hospital bills for young Charlotte, as TZA took the portfolio up 10%.
Zeroxzero
Hey Phil,
You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!
GClay
thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has lagged the broader S&P 500 Index for much of the recovery rally off the March lows.
But recently, the small caps stocks index has joined the fun. But the question is, can it last?
In today’s chart, we highlight a very important level to watch on the Russell 2000.
As you can see, the index is rallying right into triple resistance at (2), marked by a broken up-trend line, 61.8 Fibonacci price level, and former support (see green arrows).
Could the small caps rally peak out at (2)? Or breakout? There is a potential inflection point in play.
If small caps succeed in breaking out at (2), look for the to outperform large caps for a while!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
I am hearing a lot of ‘Shoulda Coulda’s’ from my friends and people on Stocktwits.
That will happen when the markets drop 30-40 percent and bounce back like they have. Charlie Bilello has a great post looking at the economic data and admits to being dazed and confused.
I remember buying Zillow in March at $34 after it had dropped quickly from the 60’s because of COVID-19. The next day I bought some at $28. That same day it dropped to $20.
I was not freaked out, but I was confused. It did not seem possible and I stopped buying more.
A few days later it was $40. A couple of days later it was back to $30. Yesterday back over $60.
I sold at $40 and made a few bucks, but of course I have the ‘shoulda, coulda’s’.
Between March and May the monthly bars had Zillow at an all-time high, an all-time low and back at all-time highs.
Here is the chart:
That move took the company from $13 billion to $4 billion to $13 billion.
I’ll throw in a chart of the entire Homebuilder’s Index to really make you scratch your head:
Bonkers.
The ‘shoulda coulda’s’ will continue to register all-time highs in 2020.
Is the Aussie Dollarabout to jump higher and signal that Commodities and interest rates are about to do the same? Possible!
This chart looks at the Aussie Dollar on a monthly basis over the past 16-years.
The AU$ created a bottoming pattern over several months in late 2008/early 2009 at (1). While creating the bottom, a couple of monthly bullish reversal patterns formed. What did commodities and yields do following the bottoming process in the AU$? Both were creating bottoms as well!
The 9-year decline in the AU$ has it testing triple support at (2), where it created one of the largest bullish reversal patterns in decades.
If the AU$ is creating a long-term bottoming pattern, odds increase that commodities and yields could be forming a long-term bottom as well.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.
The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).
Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20.
Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being created real money is the fundamental factor which becomes a higher priority over the demand for silver use in industry.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
The silver short term cycle (red) looks like the bottom is in, while the longer term cycle (black) looks higher into the next 24 months.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!
But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.
In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.
The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the Nasdaq composite (3300 stocks)… but that theme appears to be sending a concerning signal to the market.
As you can see from today’s chart, this important tech ratio peaked in 2000 at (1). And a prolonged bear market followed.
Early this year, the ratio re-tested the 2000 peak at (2), while recording back to back monthly bearish reversals in March and April. This raises concerns about a potential double top.
Note as well that on a “weekly” basis the ratio is breaking down this week. This is definitely worth watching, especially for stock market bulls. Stay tuned!
The U.S. Dollar has been a pillar of strength for the past 12-years, at it created higher lows starting in 2008, near the 70 level. Since these lows, it has rallied nearly 50%.
The 102 level was resistance for nearly 13-years (1987 to 2000) until an upside breakout took place.
The rally over the past 12-years took it up to test the 61% retracement level of its 2001 highs and 2008 lows and the 102 level again at (1), where it created back to back monthly bearish reversal patterns in 2017.
The rally over the past 2-years has King$ testing its 61% retracement level and the 2017 highs again at the 102 level again at (2).
Is King$ double topping at (2)? Possible! What would it take to prove that the upside trend has changed? A break below the 93 level. If it does breakdown, hard-hit commodities would benefit!
What would it take to prove that a double top is not taking place for the US$? A solid breakout above the 102 level, that has been resistance numerous times for the past 30-years!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.
This is the song for post lock down!
What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!
Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show
Vitamin D and c19, latest studies make Vitamin D critical to minimising effects of c19.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
…”Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics.”…
William D Gann
…”This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”…
Charles August Lindbergh Snr
..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..
Joe Granville
..“The key to successful investing is having everyone agree with you — LATER.”..
Jim Grant
..”Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets”…
7% a year for ten years sounds like a pretty decent return, and yet everybody has been complaining about it.
This 7% represents the return of large value stocks the last decade, which is pretty good. That is until you consider that few things are more relative in this world than investing, where people compare their returns to what they could have earned elsewhere. 7% isn’t bad, but compared to 14%, which is what large growth did over the same time, it’s downright awful.
The debate about the future of value versus growth has been under a microscope recently. One area of the discussion that sometime gets overlooked are the differences in sector weights, which can be a significant driver of returns.
The chart below shows the makeup of the Russell 1000 growth index over time…
…Which looks markedly different than the Russell 1000 value index.
More than 50% of large growth is in tech and telecom stocks, which have been the strongest sectors over the last ten years.
The 24% overweight that value has to energy and financials and the 33% underweight to tech tells you all you need to know about how the last ten years have played out.
The chart below shows how the over and underweight of value relative to growth have changed over time. While this feels like a repeat of 1999, this shows just how crazy that period was.
It’s been nearly ten years since Marc Andreesen said software is eating the world and boy was he right. But now we have to ask ourselves the question, will the future look more like the recent past or will it return to the way things once were.
By this I don’t mean the return of brick and mortar, but more of the fact that investors have historically overpaid for the future (growth) and underpaid for the past (value). Whether or not this returns to the way things
Could ole Doc Copperbe sending an important message about the overall health of the global economy and the stock market in the next couple of weeks? It appears it could!
This chart looks at Copper futures on a weekly basis over the past 7-years. Doc Copper looks to have double topped in late 2017 and early 2018. After the double top, Copper has continued to create a series of lower highs, which sends a bearish divergence message to stocks.
Numerous highs and lows have taken place along the line (1) over the past 5-years. The rally off the March lows has Doc Copper testing the underside of line (1) and it’s 50% Fibonacci retracement at (2) this week. While testing the underside of resistance, it is attempting to create a weekly bearish reversal pattern.
Commodity and stock market bulls would receive a positive message if Doc Copper can break above dual resistance at (2).
Just The Facts Ma’am- If Doc Copper finishes the week with a bearish reversal pattern and then it proceeds to break rising support at (3), It would send a negative message to the prospects of a global rebound in commodities and stocks!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
The March crash was pretty much an everything crash.
But nearly as fast as the market crashed, it’s come back.
In today’s chart, we look at two very important asset classes: stocks and bonds. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Indexand bonds are shown by an inverted chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.
As you can see, both stocks and bonds put in large reversal patterns at key trend support/resistance at the same time. [Inverted] Bond yields at (1) and the S&P 500 Index at (2).
Is this the mark of a turnaround? Bulls hope these reversals hold.
Where would these reversals fail and send a bearish message to stocks and a bullish message to bonds? For stocks, it would be a break of support at (2) and bonds it would be a breakout at (1)!
By TheStonkMarket. Originally published at ValueWalk.
NEW YORK CITY – Hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, was spotted last night leading a hoard of 10,000 angry rioters down the streets of 5th Avenue. Reports indicate that Ackman was persuading looters to steal and destroy as much as possible. Sources suggest that Ackman lead and instigated rioters solely to profit from his retail shorts. Bill Ackman is the founder of Perishing Square Capital Management a hedge fund with assets under management (“AUM”) of $8 billion.
One week after the European Commission presented a plan on May 27 for a €750bn recovery fund for the EU including €500bn in grants and €250bn in cheap loans, late on Wednesday Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition agreed to a €130bn German stimulus package, coming in higher than initial expectations of €50-100bn, to help Europe’s biggest economy recover from the coronavirus crisis, Bloomberg reported.
After two days of negotiations, the chancellor overcame an impasse in the governing parties late Wednesday to b...
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has lagged the broader S&P 500 Index for much of the recovery rally off the March lows.
But recently, the small caps stocks index has joined the fun. But the question is, can it last?
In today’s chart, we highlight a very important level to watch on the Russell 2000.
As you can see, the index is rallying right into triple resistance at (2), marked by a broken up-trend line, 61.8 Fibonacci price level, and former support (see green arrows).
Could the small caps rally peak out at (2)? Or breakout? There is a potential inflect...
You don’t need a crystal ball — or an economics degree — to notice the pandemic is having a historic impact on the stock market and commodities.
Gold initially went down (like all assets) in the mid-March meltdown, but is up 14% YTD. Oil bid negative, for the first time ever, as May futures traders dumped contracts to avoid taking delivery amid a lack of storage. It has since rebounded partially due to production cuts and the lifting of lockdowns. Orange juice is up over 26% YTD on adverse weather than impacted Brazil’s crop and increased consumer demand.
We have billions of them in our bodies with a combined weight of about 100 grams, or about the weight of a bar of soap. If there are so many antibodies inside our b...
Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.
The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).
Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20.
Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...
The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.
And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character. 
This is off topic, but a bit of fun!
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.