Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

A Repeat Of The 2000 Dot.com Highs In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.

Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.

So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.

In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.

As you can see, this ratio peaked out in 2000, bottomed in 2002, and has been in an up-trend ever since. That up-trend has been formed with higher lows, creating a trend line that has yet to be broken.

Are Tech Stocks About To Head Lower?

Last summer, large-cap tech’s out-performance pushed this ratio back to its 2000 high at (1) before turning lower. That turn lower has turned into several months of under-performance and has the ratio testing its bullish trend line support at (2).

How large-cap tech stocks fare here will be important, as solid trend support is at hand!!!  As a market leader, a breakdown in large-cap tech stocks would be very bearish for bulls. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





RTT browsing latest..

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rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

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Comment:
This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!

Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment:
Nasdaq losing momentum.

Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 01:52:04 AM

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Comment:
SentimenTrader: High is near!

Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 06:19:50 AM

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Comment:
Global-Real-M1-vs.-MSCI-World-Total-Return. So we have 10 month for markets to crash!

Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 10:26:20 PM

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Comment:
Buyback crashing in 2020, who gonna buy if the FED does not do all the heavy lifting!

Date Found: Friday, 24 July 2020, 11:19:33 PM

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Comment:
Another swing down…

Date Found: Saturday, 01 August 2020, 08:14:56 PM

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Comment:
Inflation.. (after a delfationary bust) for 2020s

Date Found: Saturday, 01 August 2020, 08:24:28 PM

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Comment:
Crypto rally into early 2021 ..

Date Found: Sunday, 02 August 2020, 08:23:10 AM

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Comment:
Get ready. 71% of the government debt issued this past year matures in less than 12 months. Treasury Bills’ outstanding shot up to $5 trillion! No way around this… The Fed’s balance is set to explode.

Date Found: Monday, 17 August 2020, 05:36:30 AM

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Comment:
Motley Fool Live: Danielle DiMartino Booth…
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re: Trumpless Twitter

 

re: Trumpless Twitter

Courtesy of 

On November 7th, 2013, a stock was born.

CNNMoney:

Twitter priced its initial public offering Wednesday night at $26 a share. The stock debuted at 10:49 a.m. ET on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange, and the first trade came in at $45.10 a share.

Shares quickly jumped to a high of $50.09 — a gain of 93% over the IPO price — before dropping back a bit to close the trading day at $44.90.

A price near $45 a share values Twitter (TWTR) at $24.4 billion.

Twitter closed at $45 per share on its first day as a public company. On Friday, it closed at the same price.

$10,000 invested that day yielded a total return seven years later of about six hundred bucks, give or take. You actually lost money – the cost of living since 2013 is up a cumulative fifteen percent or so:

It would be incorrect to say that no value has been created whatsoever. It’s just that no value has been created for shareholders. All of the value created by Twitter has accrued to someone other than Twitter – I’ll get to that shortly.

Employees and management have done okay, relatively speaking. Because while Twitter’s share price hasn’t gained by even a dollar since its IPO, plenty of new shares have been issued to executives, board members and workers.

Below is a look at the growth in Twitter’s fully diluted shares outstanding (quarterly) and the growth in market capitalization that has come along with that:

Shares outstanding have grown from 640 million to 806 million, or twenty five percent. The company is now worth $35 billion versus its first day valuation of about $24 billion – but not one long-term shareholder from that first day has benefited. There’s no dividend and there’s no capital gain. They’ve been paid nothing for their time, patience and endurance of volatility. And in real dollar terms, they’ve actually lost purchasing power.

So while many of this


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Why did selling SP500 volatility trades blow up?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

why-did-selling-sp500-volatility-trades-blow-upMany have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.

In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and ‘this time was different’ worked, until it didn’t.

Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A.
Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B.
Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C.
Selling volatility work great during period gray D until the cycle ended at blue D.

The point is if you play the selling volatility game, know thy cycle. Cycles matter!. The dominate cycles below gave you plenty of time to go to side lines when risk became apparent. 

NOW >>What is interesting is gray E, VIX is above 20, and the red cycle is rising with the blue cycle is pending a swing up which suggest we are in a pending crisis moment (deflation shock). 

IDEA: Have cycles studies in you investing plans, mix them with sentiment and market fundamentals.

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VIX

Divider


Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…”The average chart reader is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and


continue reading





Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields sharply lower and out of the channel. A spike bottom took place and since then, yields have slowly been rising.

So what’s the big deal? The counter-trend rally has bond yields testing an important confluence of resistance at (2): The underside of the falling channel, its near-term downtrend line, as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

So is inflation and economic growth back in play? What yields do at (2) will most likely answer this question. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Doc Copper Suggesting Economic Growth Peaks Here?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The broader commodities market is enjoying a multi-month rally that has seen momentum carry over into early 2021.

One area of commodities that’s seen a big lift is the metals space. We hear a lot about gold and silver, but how about copper?

One look at today’s chart and it’s clear that Doc Copper is on fire.

The long-term “monthly” chart highlights Copper’s multi-month thrust higher. It also shows Copper futures prices hitting a significant band of triple resistance this month. Line (1) has been tested several times over the past 15 years, while resistance at (2) is made up of 61.8 Fibonacci resistance as well as the top of the rising channel.

So what will Doc Copper do with this 800-pound test of resistance?

Well, if copper succeeds in breaking above this band of resistance, it will likely mean blast off for copper and copper stocks like Freeport McMoran (FCX).

What is the message if Doc Copper starts seeing selling pressure at (2)? It would suggest that the counter-trend rally is running out of steam and that numerous commodities could experience short-term selling pressure. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





US Dollar Collapse, Crude Oil Skyrocket About To Happen?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the U.S. Dollar about to collapse? Are Crude Oil prices about to skyrocket?

Well if these price movements are to take place, 12-year trends have to change!

Since 2008, the US$ has created a series of higher lows and higher highs inside of rising channel (1). At the same time, Crude Oil has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (2).

Counter-trend rallies by each have the US$ testing support and Crude Oil near resistance, at the same time.

As these support/resistance tests are in play, few are bullish King$ and few are bearish Crude Oil.

The results of the price action by the US$ at support and Crude as resistance in my humble opinion is a VERY BIG deal friends!

What happens here should have a large impact on what assets you should be over and underweight for potentially years to come!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Here’s Why Gold Could Be Headed To $3000

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In the spring of 2020, I highlighted the potential for a very bullish long-term pattern for Gold.

That pattern was the popular “cup with handle” formation. At that time, it was still attempting to fill out the right side of the “cup” formation.

Today, we take another look at the “monthly” chart of gold and get an update on that pattern.

Gold “Cup With Handle” Formation

Eyes $3000 Price Target?

As you can see in today’s chart, Gold has completed the “cup” pattern and is currently pulling back into what could be the “handle” part of the formation. Ideally, Gold bulls want to see a decline down to the $1550-$1600 level before another big rally begins.

As we noted back in the spring of 2020, the Fibonacci symmetry of this cup formation is very intriguing. Gold peaked at its 261% Fibonacci extension price level in 2011 at (1) and again in 2020 at (2) – this formed the “cup”. And a pullback into the 38.2% Fibonacci of the “cup” formation would be an ideal spot for the “handle” to form.

Does Gold need to form a “handle” before moving higher? Not necessarily… but it sure would help Gold get to $3000 a lot sooner. Stay tuned!

This chart was written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post, CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

best-wyckoff-accumulation-for-2020Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!





Introduction …



Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.












Charts in the video …





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ETH 1




PnF …



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ETH 2




Divider







Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…



Richard D. Wyckoff





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





…“To me, the ‘tape’ is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…



Martin Zweig





..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..



Benjamin Franklin





The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











The Commodities Rally Hinges on a Euro Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Over the past year, there has been a lot of buzz about rising equities, the surge in Bitcoin, the strength of gold, and the comeback in commodities like crude oil and corn.

But what about the Euro?

It’s just as important and it is a big reason why several of the assets above are rising.

As many of you know, the currency markets have a huge effect on equities and commodities. When the Euro is strong, it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that the US Dollar is weak. And this provides a tailwind to commodities… and a bid to equities. And that has been a reality in the markets for much of the past year.

So will this theme continue into 2021 and beyond?

Depends on how the Euro performs.

Let’s look at the chart. Here we have a long-term “monthly” chart of the Euro. As you can see, the price has pivoted as support or resistance several times off line (1). And all the while, the Euro has traded in a falling channel marked by each (2).

Recent Euro strength has the currency testing BOTH the upper channel boundary and this all-important pivot line at the same time at (3).

So if commodities have the “legs” for another move higher, the Euro needs to breakout!

This article was first published on See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

 

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

When I was a kid I played ‘Pong’ and ‘Space Invaders’ and Coleco Football and Mattel ‘Intellivision’.

In college I stopped.

Maybe if there were smartphones and no women, I would still be a ‘gamer’, but my generation was looking up not down.

I found the markets because I needed a first job and I was hooked.

It has been a battle of wits and behavior since. The markets have brought me to panic and fear on many occasions but most...



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ValueWalk

Aviation Lawsuit Filed Against Boeing Regarding Hard Landing in Turkey

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

(Chicago IL, January 21, 2021) Today, lawyers representing victims of Pegasus Flight 2193, announced that a lawsuit was filed against The Boeing Company and the aircraft owner. The lawsuit asserts claims of Negligence, Product Liability, and Breach of Warranty regarding a Boeing aircraft that crashed in Istanbul, Turkey.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Hard Landing Of Pegasus Flight 2193

On February 5, 2020, a commercial flight operated by Pegasus Airlines was scheduled to depart from Izmir Adnan Menderes Airport and arrive in Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen ...



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Zero Hedge

China Appeals To "Kind Angels" Of Biden Administration, Blames Trump For "Burning Bridges"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While essentially placing sole blame on Trump and his top officials, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in the latest press briefing remarks that "kind angels can triumph over evil forces" in America.

"In the past years, the Trump administration, especially (former Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo, has laid too many mines that need to be removed, burned too many...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

A Repeat Of The 2000 Dot.com Highs In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.

Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.

So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.

In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.

As you ca...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

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Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.