Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Small Caps Testing Triple Breakout Price Point!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has lagged the broader S&P 500 Index for much of the recovery rally off the March lows.

But recently, the small caps stocks index has joined the fun. But the question is, can it last?

In today’s chart, we highlight a very important level to watch on the Russell 2000.

As you can see, the index is rallying right into triple resistance at (2), marked by a broken up-trend line, 61.8 Fibonacci price level, and former support (see green arrows).

Could the small caps rally peak out at (2)? Or breakout? There is a potential inflection point in play.

If small caps succeed in breaking out at (2), look for the to outperform large caps for a while!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





The Shoulda Coulda’s…

 

The Shoulda Coulda’s…

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I am hearing a lot of ‘Shoulda Coulda’s’ from my friends and people on Stocktwits.

That will happen when the markets drop 30-40 percent and bounce back like they have. Charlie Bilello has a great post looking at the economic data and admits to being dazed and confused.

I remember buying Zillow in March at $34 after it had dropped quickly from the 60’s because of COVID-19. The next day I bought some at $28. That same day it dropped to $20.

I was not freaked out, but I was confused. It did not seem possible and I stopped buying more.

A few days later it was $40. A couple of days later it was back to $30. Yesterday back over $60.

I sold at $40 and made a few bucks, but of course I have the ‘shoulda, coulda’s’.

Between March and May the monthly bars had Zillow at an all-time high, an all-time low and back at all-time highs.

Here is the chart:

That move took the company from $13 billion to $4 billion to $13 billion.

I’ll throw in a chart of the entire Homebuilder’s Index to really make you scratch your head:

Bonkers.

The ‘shoulda coulda’s’ will continue to register all-time highs in 2020.

Pace yourself.





Aussie Dollar Suggesting Much Higher Commodities And Yields On The Way???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Aussie Dollar about to jump higher and signal that Commodities and interest rates are about to do the same? Possible!

This chart looks at the Aussie Dollar on a monthly basis over the past 16-years.

The AU$ created a bottoming pattern over several months in late 2008/early 2009 at (1). While creating the bottom, a couple of monthly bullish reversal patterns formed. What did commodities and yields do following the bottoming process in the AU$? Both were creating bottoms as well!

The 9-year decline in the AU$ has it testing triple support at (2), where it created one of the largest bullish reversal patterns in decades.

If the AU$ is creating a long-term bottoming pattern, odds increase that commodities and yields could be forming a long-term bottom as well.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

silver-volume-says-something-is-near-boiling-pointFundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being created real money is the fundamental factor which becomes a higher priority over the demand for silver use in industry.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Silver

The silver short term cycle (red) looks like the bottom is in, while the longer term cycle (black) looks higher into the next 24 months.

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Silver cycle

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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near it’s end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks.


continue reading





Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the Nasdaq composite (3300 stocks)… but that theme appears to be sending a concerning signal to the market.

As you can see from today’s chart, this important tech ratio peaked in 2000 at (1). And a prolonged bear market followed.

Early this year, the ratio re-tested the 2000 peak at (2), while recording back to back monthly bearish reversals in March and April. This raises concerns about a potential double top.

Note as well that on a “weekly” basis the ratio is breaking down this week. This is definitely worth watching, especially for stock market bulls. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





King Dollar Could Double Topping; Commodities Would Benefit If It Does!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The U.S. Dollar has been a pillar of strength for the past 12-years, at it created higher lows starting in 2008, near the 70 level. Since these lows, it has rallied nearly 50%.

The 102 level was resistance for nearly 13-years (1987 to 2000) until an upside breakout took place.

The rally over the past 12-years took it up to test the 61% retracement level of its 2001 highs and 2008 lows and the 102 level again at (1), where it created back to back monthly bearish reversal patterns in 2017.

The rally over the past 2-years has King$ testing its 61% retracement level and the 2017 highs again at the 102 level again at (2).

Is King$ double topping at (2)? Possible! What would it take to prove that the upside trend has changed? A break below the 93 level. If it does breakdown, hard-hit commodities would benefit!

What would it take to prove that a double top is not taking place for the US$? A solid breakout above the 102 level, that has been resistance numerous times for the past 30-years!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

is-this-your-local-response-to-covid-19This is off topic, but a bit of fun!





This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.
















This is the song for post lock down!














What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!



Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show





Family








Vitamin D and c19, latest studies make Vitamin D critical to minimising effects of c19.




















Divider







Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics.”…



William D Gann





…”This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”…



Charles August Lindbergh Snr





..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..



Joe Granville





..“The key to successful investing is having everyone agree with you — LATER.”..



Jim Grant



..”Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets”…



Stan Druckenmiller











How Sectors are Driving Value and Growth

 

How Sectors are Driving Value and Growth

Courtesy of 

7% a year for ten years sounds like a pretty decent return, and yet everybody has been complaining about it.

This 7% represents the return of large value stocks the last decade, which is pretty good. That is until you consider that few things are more relative in this world than investing, where people compare their returns to what they could have earned elsewhere. 7% isn’t bad, but compared to 14%, which is what large growth did over the same time, it’s downright awful.

The debate about the future of value versus growth has been under a microscope recently. One area of the discussion that sometime gets overlooked are the differences in sector weights, which can be a significant driver of returns.

The chart below shows the makeup of the Russell 1000 growth index over time…

…Which looks markedly different than the Russell 1000 value index.

More than 50% of large growth is in tech and telecom stocks, which have been the strongest sectors over the last ten years.
 

The 24% overweight that value has to energy and financials and the 33% underweight to tech tells you all you need to know about how the last ten years have played out.

The chart below shows how the over and underweight of value relative to growth have changed over time. While this feels like a repeat of 1999, this shows just how crazy that period was.

It’s been nearly ten years since Marc Andreesen said software is eating the world and boy was he right. But now we have to ask ourselves the question, will the future look more like the recent past or will it return to the way things once were.

By this I don’t mean the return of brick and mortar, but more of the fact that investors have historically overpaid for the future (growth) and underpaid for the past (value). Whether or not this returns to the way things


continue reading





Doc Copper Counter-Trend Rally Could Peak Here, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could ole Doc Copper be sending an important message about the overall health of the global economy and the stock market in the next couple of weeks? It appears it could!

This chart looks at Copper futures on a weekly basis over the past 7-years. Doc Copper looks to have double topped in late 2017 and early 2018. After the double top, Copper has continued to create a series of lower highs, which sends a bearish divergence message to stocks.

Numerous highs and lows have taken place along the line (1) over the past 5-years. The rally off the March lows has Doc Copper testing the underside of line (1) and it’s 50% Fibonacci retracement at (2) this week. While testing the underside of resistance, it is attempting to create a weekly bearish reversal pattern.

Commodity and stock market bulls would receive a positive message if Doc Copper can break above dual resistance at (2).

Just The Facts Ma’am- If Doc Copper finishes the week with a bearish reversal pattern and then it proceeds to break rising support at (3), It would send a negative message to the prospects of a global rebound in commodities and stocks!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Historic Tops and Bottoms Take Place For Stocks And Bonds In March?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The March crash was pretty much an everything crash.

But nearly as fast as the market crashed, it’s come back.

In today’s chart, we look at two very important asset classes: stocks and bonds. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index and bonds are shown by an inverted chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

As you can see, both stocks and bonds put in large reversal patterns at key trend support/resistance at the same time. [Inverted] Bond yields at (1) and the S&P 500 Index at (2).

Is this the mark of a turnaround? Bulls hope these reversals hold.

Where would these reversals fail and send a bearish message to stocks and a bullish message to bonds? For stocks, it would be a break of support at (2) and bonds it would be a breakout at (1)!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post, CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Militarization has fostered a policing culture that sets up protesters as 'the enemy'

 

Militarization has fostered a policing culture that sets up protesters as 'the enemy'

Sheriffs deputies in riot gear move in on protesters in Los Angeles, California. Photo by David McNew/Getty Images

Courtesy of Tom Nolan, Emmanuel College

The unrest sparked by the death of George Floyd after being pinned to the ground by the knee of a Minneapolis police officer has left parts of U.S. citie...



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ValueWalk

Bill Ackman leads rioting in NYC to benefit his retail shorts

By TheStonkMarket. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NEW YORK CITY – Hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, was spotted last night leading a hoard of 10,000 angry rioters down the streets of 5th Avenue.  Reports indicate that Ackman was persuading looters to steal and destroy as much as possible.  Sources suggest that Ackman lead and instigated rioters solely to profit from his retail shorts.  Bill Ackman is the founder of Perishing Square Capital Management a hedge fund with assets under management (“AUM”) of $8 billion.

...



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Zero Hedge

Merkel's Coalition Agrees To €130BN Stimulus Package To Boost German Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One week after the European Commission presented a plan on May 27 for a €750bn recovery fund for the EU including €500bn in grants and €250bn in cheap loans, late on Wednesday Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition agreed to a €130bn German stimulus package, coming in higher than initial expectations of €50-100bn, to help Europe’s biggest economy recover from the coronavirus crisis, Bloomberg reported.

After two days of negotiations, the chancellor overcame an impasse in the governing parties late Wednesday to b...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Small Caps Testing Triple Breakout Price Point!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has lagged the broader S&P 500 Index for much of the recovery rally off the March lows.

But recently, the small caps stocks index has joined the fun. But the question is, can it last?

In today’s chart, we highlight a very important level to watch on the Russell 2000.

As you can see, the index is rallying right into triple resistance at (2), marked by a broken up-trend line, 61.8 Fibonacci price level, and former support (see green arrows).

Could the small caps rally peak out at (2)? Or breakout? There is a potential inflect...



more from Kimble C.S.

The Technical Traders

Comparing Bitcoin and Ether During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Courtesy of Technical Traders

You don’t need a crystal ball — or an economics degree — to notice the pandemic is having a historic impact on the stock market and commodities.

Gold initially went down (like all assets) in the mid-March meltdown, but is up 14% YTD. Oil bid negative, for the first time ever, as May futures traders dumped contracts to avoid taking delivery amid a lack of storage. It has since rebounded partially due to production cuts and the lifting of lockdowns. Orange juice is up over 26% YTD on adverse weather than impacted Brazil’s crop and increased consumer demand.

The most surpris...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections - an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

 

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections – an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

Antibodies (pink) attacking a virus particle (blue). STEVEN MCDOWELL/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY

Courtesy of Dimiter Stanchev Dimitrov, University of Pittsburgh

Antibodies are part of us – literally.

We have billions of them in our bodies with a combined weight of about 100 grams, or about the weight of a bar of soap. If there are so many antibodies inside our b...



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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

more from Chart School

Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.