Phil, I followed your investing ideas in LTP quite closely. It seems your insightful fundamental analysis knowledge serves you v. well. I get entertained and they are profitable.
Investwizard
Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!
Gel1
Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!
Rookie IRA Investor
Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.
Smasher
Phil, have to thank you for saving me today. I think the discipline I have learned from this site has helped me as much if not more than the actual picks.
Rustle123
Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!
RevTodd64
Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!
Barfinger
Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!
TmDecay
hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.
Lunar
PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.
Winston
Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.
Craigsa620
I thank you for the years of being my teacher, always took the time to answer my questions.
You are the BEST !
QCMike
Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!
MrMocha
Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.
RMM
It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.
Pirateinvestor
Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)
Winston
Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!
Jomptien
I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. I've learned a lot (and still am) about your trading strategy, but also I see a man who truly cares about our country, America. Thank you.
Autolander
What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????
Jablams
Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.
Winston
Phil you are great, and not only is your market info spot on but you have the courage to call it like it is and write about it in a great tone.
Flanger
Aapl/Phil
Thanks for your advice, always appreciated.
So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop.
Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50
Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed.
And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings)
So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock.
Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not.
Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun!
More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset.
Thanks!
Maya1
Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.
Chaffey
I have been a member off and on for years. Using these techniques I do consistently beat the S&P 500. Phil's Stock World has been the most important site in my financial life. It's impact on me over the past years has been huge. As have my tax bills!
Knightpilot
TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!
Gel1
Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.
mSquare
I am not a user of phil's site now, but was for a couple years. His advice and information is excellent. Perhaps even better, you get access to real-time trades of additional traders on his site (OptTrader, etc) and the other members who post what they are buying and selling. Overall, its a very valuable information tool. Expensive, but paid for itself many times over. I did not renew my membership because I switched jobs and did not have time to trade nearly as much.
XRTrader
Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions.
Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.
Bai2r
Thank you so much for the good daily news in review Phil. I love your commentary! It is such a breath of fresh air in the smog cluttered news networks.
RJRoberts
As a fellow "low-end" investor I like Phil's Buy/Write strategy on solid stocks. Before I came here I loved to try to "figure things out" with very little success "TRYING TO FIGURE THINGS OUT"! I traded too much and fell in love with stocks that "should have done" what they didn't do. Now a majority of my accounts are in Buy/Writes suggested here or cash (waiting for a better time for more Buy/Writes). I use 15-20% of my total holding to short term trade and hedge. This is manageable with my full time job as a business owner. I have found Phil's system a more discipline way to achieve the returns I want without relying on my ability (more like inability to "figure things out").
Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.
Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.
So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.
In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.
As you can see, this ratio peaked out in 2000, bottomed in 2002, and has been in an up-trend ever since. That up-trend has been formed with higher lows, creating a trend line that has yet to be broken.
Are Tech Stocks About To Head Lower?
Last summer, large-cap tech’s out-performance pushed this ratio back to its 2000 high at (1) before turning lower. That turn lower has turned into several months of under-performance and has the ratio testing its bullish trend line support at (2).
How large-cap tech stocks fare here will be important, as solid trend support is at hand!!! As a market leader, a breakdown in large-cap tech stocks would be very bearish for bulls. Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.
Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM
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Comment:
This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!
Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM
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Comment:
Nasdaq losing momentum.
Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 01:52:04 AM
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Comment:
SentimenTrader: High is near!
Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 06:19:50 AM
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Comment:
Global-Real-M1-vs.-MSCI-World-Total-Return. So we have 10 month for markets to crash!
Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 10:26:20 PM
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Comment:
Buyback crashing in 2020, who gonna buy if the FED does not do all the heavy lifting!
Date Found: Friday, 24 July 2020, 11:19:33 PM
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Comment:
Another swing down…
Date Found: Saturday, 01 August 2020, 08:14:56 PM
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Comment:
Inflation.. (after a delfationary bust) for 2020s
Date Found: Saturday, 01 August 2020, 08:24:28 PM
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Comment:
Crypto rally into early 2021 ..
Date Found: Sunday, 02 August 2020, 08:23:10 AM
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Comment:
Get ready. 71% of the government debt issued this past year matures in less than 12 months. Treasury Bills’ outstanding shot up to $5 trillion! No way around this… The Fed’s balance is set to explode.
Date Found: Monday, 17 August 2020, 05:36:30 AM
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Twitter priced its initial public offering Wednesday night at $26 a share. The stock debuted at 10:49 a.m. ET on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange, and the first trade came in at $45.10 a share.
Shares quickly jumped to a high of $50.09 — a gain of 93% over the IPO price — before dropping back a bit to close the trading day at $44.90.
A price near $45 a share values Twitter (TWTR) at $24.4 billion.
Twitter closed at $45 per share on its first day as a public company. On Friday, it closed at the same price.
$10,000 invested that day yielded a total return seven years later of about six hundred bucks, give or take. You actually lost money – the cost of living since 2013 is up a cumulative fifteen percent or so:
It would be incorrect to say that no value has been created whatsoever. It’s just that no value has been created for shareholders. All of the value created by Twitter has accrued to someone other than Twitter – I’ll get to that shortly.
Employees and management have done okay, relatively speaking. Because while Twitter’s share price hasn’t gained by even a dollar since its IPO, plenty of new shares have been issued to executives, board members and workers.
Below is a look at the growth in Twitter’s fully diluted shares outstanding (quarterly) and the growth in market capitalization that has come along with that:
Shares outstanding have grown from 640 million to 806 million, or twenty five percent. The company is now worth $35 billion versus its first day valuation of about $24 billion – but not one long-term shareholder from that first day has benefited. There’s no dividend and there’s no capital gain. They’ve been paid nothing for their time, patience and endurance of volatility. And in real dollar terms, they’ve actually lost purchasing power.
Many have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.
In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and ‘this time was different’ worked, until it didn’t.
Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A. Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B. Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C. Selling volatility work great during period gray D until the cycle ended at blue D.
The point is if you play the selling volatility game, know thy cycle. Cycles matter!. The dominate cycles below gave you plenty of time to go to side lines when risk became apparent.
NOW >>What is interesting is gray E, VIX is above 20, and the red cycle is rising with the blue cycle is pending a swing up which suggest we are in a pending crisis moment (deflation shock).
IDEA: Have cycles studies in you investing plans, mix them with sentiment and market fundamentals.
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
…”The average chart reader is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and
Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.
But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).
Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.
Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!
As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields sharply lower and out of the channel. A spike bottom took place and since then, yields have slowly been rising.
So what’s the big deal? The counter-trend rally has bond yields testing an important confluence of resistance at (2): The underside of the falling channel, its near-term downtrend line, as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
So is inflation and economic growth back in play? What yields do at (2) will most likely answer this question. Stay tuned!
The broader commodities market is enjoying a multi-month rally that has seen momentum carry over into early 2021.
One area of commodities that’s seen a big lift is the metals space. We hear a lot about gold and silver, but how about copper?
One look at today’s chart and it’s clear that Doc Copper is on fire.
The long-term “monthly” chart highlights Copper’s multi-month thrust higher. It also shows Copper futures prices hitting a significant band of triple resistance this month. Line (1) has been tested several times over the past 15 years, while resistance at (2) is made up of 61.8 Fibonacci resistance as well as the top of the rising channel.
So what will Doc Copper do with this 800-pound test of resistance?
Well, if copper succeeds in breaking above this band of resistance, it will likely mean blast off for copper and copper stocks like Freeport McMoran (FCX).
What is the message if Doc Copper starts seeing selling pressure at (2)? It would suggest that the counter-trend rally is running out of steam and that numerous commodities could experience short-term selling pressure. Stay tuned!
Well if these price movements are to take place, 12-year trends have to change!
Since 2008, the US$ has created a series of higher lows and higher highs inside of rising channel (1). At the same time, Crude Oil has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (2).
Counter-trend rallies by each have the US$ testing support and Crude Oil near resistance, at the same time.
As these support/resistance tests are in play, few are bullish King$ and few are bearish Crude Oil.
The results of the price action by the US$ at support and Crude as resistance in my humble opinion is a VERY BIG deal friends!
What happens here should have a large impact on what assets you should be over and underweight for potentially years to come!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
That pattern was the popular “cup with handle” formation. At that time, it was still attempting to fill out the right side of the “cup” formation.
Today, we take another look at the “monthly” chart of goldand get an update on that pattern.
Gold “Cup With Handle” Formation
Eyes $3000 Price Target?
As you can see in today’s chart, Gold has completed the “cup” pattern and is currently pulling back into what could be the “handle” part of the formation. Ideally, Gold bulls want to see a decline down to the $1550-$1600 level before another big rally begins.
As we noted back in the spring of 2020, the Fibonacci symmetry of this cup formation is very intriguing. Gold peaked at its 261% Fibonacci extension price level in 2011 at (1) and again in 2020 at (2) – this formed the “cup”. And a pullback into the 38.2% Fibonacci of the “cup” formation would be an ideal spot for the “handle” to form.
Does Gold need to form a “handle” before moving higher? Not necessarily… but it sure would help Gold get to $3000 a lot sooner. Stay tuned!
Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!
Introduction …
Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.
Charts in the video …
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PnF …
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…
Richard D. Wyckoff
..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..
Warren Buffett
…“To me, the ‘tape’ is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…
Martin Zweig
..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..
Benjamin Franklin
The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.
Over the past year, there has been a lot of buzz about rising equities, the surge in Bitcoin, the strength of gold, and the comeback in commodities like crude oil and corn.
It’s just as important and it is a big reason why several of the assets above are rising.
As many of you know, the currency markets have a huge effect on equities and commodities. When the Euro is strong, it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that the US Dollar is weak. And this provides a tailwind to commodities… and a bid to equities. And that has been a reality in the markets for much of the past year.
So will this theme continue into 2021 and beyond?
Depends on how the Euro performs.
Let’s look at the chart. Here we have a long-term “monthly” chart of the Euro. As you can see, the price has pivoted as support or resistance several times off line (1). And all the while, the Euro has traded in a falling channel marked by each (2).
Recent Euro strength has the currency testing BOTH the upper channel boundary and this all-important pivot line at the same time at (3).
So if commodities have the “legs” for another move higher, the Euro needs to breakout!
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
(Chicago IL, January 21, 2021) Today, lawyers representing victims of Pegasus Flight 2193, announced that a lawsuit was filed against The Boeing Company and the aircraft owner. The lawsuit asserts claims of Negligence, Product Liability, and Breach of Warranty regarding a Boeing aircraft that crashed in Istanbul, Turkey.
On February 5, 2020, a commercial flight operated by Pegasus Airlines was scheduled to depart from Izmir Adnan Menderes Airport and arrive in Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen ...
While essentially placing sole blame on Trump and his top officials, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in the latest press briefing remarks that "kind angels can triumph over evil forces" in America.
"In the past years, the Trump administration, especially (former Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo, has laid too many mines that need to be removed, burned too many...
Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.
Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.
So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.
In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.
This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.
Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...
The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign.
Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.
Many have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.
Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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coordinator for PSW.