Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!
Jelutuck
Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas?
Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!
Louis631
This is my first month here. Today was a money train with futures. I gained 7500 USD with KC, RB, CL, NG.
I took RB almost every direction up and down. And I only used 1 contract or maximum 2.
Thank you. I think it was a good investment to subscribe…
Kgabor
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Singapore Steve
Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!
TmDecay
Thanks Phil another great week of guiding us!
Steven Parker
I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.
Winston
PSW AC Conf: For those who may be on the bubble, I attended my first PSW LV in November. It was a real eye-opener. What I accomplished in a couple of days of exposure to Phil, Pharm, Craig, et al made my previous couple of years of hanging around the web site seem silly. If you are inclined in the slightest, you really should go. Just rubbing shoulders with other PSW members proved to be really valuable. Strictly on the basis of value, it's a great deal. You will have real time conversations with Phil and the gang and they will get to your questions and agenda items.
Mjjwo9b
I remember that call (to sell gold at $1,850) as well... and the many Buy-Writes that were created on your site during that period... thanks to you, I had an average ROI of close to 70% for over 2 years, averaging 4,000 trades per year. Busy trading, but lots of fun and memorable trades.
1234gel
Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.
Hoss
Phil I have been telling you for a while how I feel like I am really understanding you now and thanking you. Well today may have been my most successful futures trading day since I began here and the week has been spectacular! It has just seemed so easy when you give us a range and I execute properly. Thanks once again for teaching me to fish. My portfolio gained over 10% this week which is just amazing.
Craiga620
Hi Mr. Phill, I am a Venezuelan lady tormented by our politicall situation, who use to be an emerging market trader, and many other executive positins in the finance "arena" and now is trying to built a new concept and service for asset management for clients on my own, I am in the trial and learning process at the moment, I also invest for some friends and myself. I want to congratulate you , because reading you fill my days with a touch of irony (besides ,of course the spectacular market insight) that happens to give me energy, its a joy the remarks and comments even the pictures used, sometimes I just read it for the fun, I completily agree with your thouhts, though we belong to totally different cultures and enviorements and certanly realities Your readings is like a little hand helping me out to be in the market and fight for my devastated country where every single day we looe inches and yards of liberty. You shoul try to writte a book!
Mindeyes
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Chasw
Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.
Ether
Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!
Gel1
This site, for me, is where I have learned how to use options & futures. It is also where I get a constant flow of new ideas. In addition, it's great to know that I have many sources, mostly Phil, if I get lost in a trade. I have been here for 8 years, and am grateful to PHIL and fellow members. I manage about half a million, and although I may not always achieve what Phil does, I am not complaining. I have learned so much. Thank you Phil!
DClark41
The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)
Chaps
I like the retirement picks too. The futures trading is certainly more sexy, but the boring retirement picks are the ones that consistently make me money.
jjennings
Phil
Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract!
Thanks
Kapella
I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.
Pstas
SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.
Sibe14 (premium)
Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.
Smasher
Phil - FAS - I dont know whether to be happier I averaged down and sold calls or that I got myself out of FAZ the other day…thanks for that help
BCFla
Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.
IHS4GOD
Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck
Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old!
looking forward to many more - bk
Bjkeck
Phil: I cleaned up today. A rather stark contrast to my untutored performance April/May 2009, after I had written to you to explain how wrong-headed your bearishness was. Many thanks.
I ran into someone once who played on the Bulls with Jordan for quite a few years. He was asked what he had learned from playing with MJ for so long. He smiled and said "Give him the ball."
Zeroxzero
I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.
Snow
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!
Deano
Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.
Scotbraze
Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.
If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!
Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!
This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.
The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to create a bullish reversal pattern and a breakout at (2).
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The INDA/SPX ratio is attempting a breakout. It is possible that INDA is about to reflect some relative strength against the S&P 500!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
And this is occurring on Federal Reserve day no less! Something has got to give.
In the chart above you can see that all three are rallying into important resistance.
A couple of time this past year, these three experienced important inflection points at the same time. Deja vu?
Currently, another important inflection point for each looks to be in play at each (1). The outcome should result in a big move across the financial markets. Stay Tuned!
Yesterday Crude Oil rallied nearly 15%. How often does Crude rally this much in a day? Not often!
How many times has Crude rallied nearly 15% in the past 20-years? Only one other time, which suggests that yesterdays move was a rare event.
This chart looks at Crude Oil on a weekly basis over the past 2-years. Last year Crude Oil created a bearish reversal pattern at the 2018 highs and a bullish reversal pattern at the 2018 lows.
Earlier this year, Crude created a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick pattern), while testing its 61% retracement level of last years highs/lows at (1).
The large rally in Crude yesterday saw it come near its 61% retracement level and the April highs at (2), where early in the week, it appears another large bearish reversal pattern.
The price action this week by Crude Oil could be suggesting that another peak could be taking place this week, just below its 61% retracement level and the April highs!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!
These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:
1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.
2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.
3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted.
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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
..”It is not as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time.”..
Jesse Livermore
..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..
Robert G Allen
..“Because of the extreme challenge, one must commit full attention to it.” Market speculation is “no different than trying to be a successful doctor or lawyer … you simply must devote yourself full-time to the study of your craft”…
Bernard Baruch
..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..
Bernard Baruch
..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..
There have been 17 separate 5% pullbacks since stocks bottomed in 2009. Each one of them felt like the top.
Okay, this is just a bit hyperbolic, but for people who don’t work in the financial services industry, the chart below shows some of the headlines and quotes they might have read when they opened their computer during market declines. Note that each of these 17 items were pulled from the day of the bottom. (Click to enlarge)
It’s hard to see headlines like this and not act on them. We know now that our worst fears did not come to pass, but there was no way to know at the time that each and every one of these pullbacks would resolve themselves to the upside.
One of the worst things that investors can do is overreact to market volatility. It’s perfectly normal to feel something, but adopting an all in or all out* mentality when the market goes up and down is destined to fail. What if, instead of going to cash every time the market pulls back, you simply get a little more defensive. Sure it will cost you money, but it will keep you in the game. The chart below shows 3 lines, via the data god
A 60/40 portfolio (blue)
A 60/40 portfolio that flips to 40/60 every time the S&P 500 has an x% pullback, and flips back to 60/40 when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high (green)
A 60/40 portfolio that goes to cash every time the S&P 500 has an x% decline and moves back to 60/40 when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high
Going from 60/40 to 40/60 when you get anxious is approximately a million times smarter than running to cash and waiting for the dust to settle. You can see this in the numbers below.
Going to cash every time stocks fall isn’t just expensive, it’s mentally crippling. You start hoping the market confirms your views and goes a lot lower. And
And US equities surged led by Trannies and Small Caps, each of which was panic-bid at every day's open. The Dow is up 8 days in a row. Nasdaq underperformed on the week…
That is the best week for Small Caps since Dec 2016 (and best for Trannies since Dec 2017)
Very narrow range in Dow futs in the day session (having tried and failed to break to new highs numerous times)…
Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October. Please take a minute to review the original research post below :
We believe the current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance over the next 25+ trading days before a bigger breakdown begins near Mid-October. We expect the price to continue rotating within a fairly narrow range in alignment with our ADL predictions. Our original article suggested a high price target area near $60 from our ADL research. Now that Crude Oil has nearly reached this level, we believe the continued upside opportunity in Crude Oil is limited. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.
Daily Crude Oil Chart
This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights what we believe will become resistance just below the $60 price level and suggests the $55 to $56 price level may be intermediate support. Thus, we expect the price to rotate a bit lower, possibly into the $54 to $56 level, then stall and rotate further as we transition into the end of September.
Weekly Crude Oil Chart Trend Direction
We don’t expect anything crazy to happen in Oil until later in September or into early October. Our ADL predictive modeling suggests that Crude Oil will peak in October and begin a broader downside move towards levels just below $50. Crude Oil may begin this move a bit earlier than our ADL system predicts because of news or some fundamental data related…
President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on?
Of course who knows? But lets continue.
The fundamentals behind this may be:
A good deal with China.
The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).
Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before Oct 1987 stock market crash, as it was proven the US stock market does not act in isolation, and can not escape the world economic environment, hence the quick and sharp stock market correction Oct 19 1987.
In the chart below:
Notice how the Dow moves in burst between the green divider channel lines. It like an even pulse of a market move.
The most recent consolidation is a Wyckoff re accumulation cause (well so far) and the effect would carry stocks to 38,000. It is not distribution as one would expect more volatility and we do not have that.
38,000 target is the next green outer channel line.
Here is the longer term view of the red and green channels.
Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney…
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations
The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.
This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.
In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.
Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.
A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!
If yields fail to rally and each breaks support at each (1), odds ramp up that stocks are in trouble! These patterns suggest that stock bulls want to see yield move higher here, not lower!
I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.
In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.
That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...
I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.
In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.
That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs. The rea...
If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!
Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!
This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.
The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...
Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!
These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:
1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.
2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.
3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted.
Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.
Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo.
One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...
As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...
For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire. In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.
Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives. A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.
Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!
President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on? 
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site