Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

Bjkeck
It was a nice day thanks to your help! Made over $1100 shorting TF every time it came up near 1260 and even more by going long oil before inventory under $46 and then waited patiently for the spike up into the close where I shorted it at 47.70 or so. Phil you gave me a road map and I simply followed the signs along the way.

Craigsa620
Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

Coke
Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

Greg
It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

Pirateinvestor
On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

Iflantheman
Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

Iflantheman
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!

Deano
WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.

Craigzooka
Phil, thank you for all the education here. I've gained so much knowledge being a part of PSW. Thanks to the rest of the members as well! I appreciate all of the contributions you make.

JeffDoc
Phil - Rode the /QM down from 99.65 at 7pm and now I'm taking your advice, taking the $$ and going to enjoy a restful night sleep. I don't post often so I want to say thanks for sharing your incredible market acumen with all of us. Your site has a unusually talented group of investors (and some characters) and I enjoy my days trading more because of it.

DaveW
Thanks Phil another great week of guiding us!

Steven Parker
The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

Gel1
I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

Pharmboy
Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.

Ocelli
Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

Newthugger
I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.

TokyoLife
I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.

Winston
Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

Ben1Be
1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

Phil Pearlman - StockTwits
Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

dclark41
I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

Jerseyside
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

HJ Kobbeman
I remember that call (to sell gold at $1,850) as well... and the many Buy-Writes that were created on your site during that period... thanks to you, I had an average ROI of close to 70% for over 2 years, averaging 4,000 trades per year. Busy trading, but lots of fun and memorable trades.

1234gel
Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

Gel1
Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

flipspiceland
I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.

Knightpilot
Phil Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract! Thanks

Kapella
USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

Ksone88
Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)

Winston

Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Narrow Trading Ranges Set Up New Breakout Opportunities

by Chart School - May 21st, 2018 6:08 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

The past few days have seen markets shape narrow mini-trading ranges, each following breakouts from larger consolidations. Large Caps show this best

The S&P cleared a dual 4-month and 6-week consolidation before shaping the past 8-day ‘flag’. Look for a break of 2,740 and a push to challenge the next swing high at 2,800 – although a test of this should be enough to go on and challenge all-time highs.

The Dow Jones Index could be considered to have broken from its mini-consolidation. Volume was not hugely impressive but technicals are all bullish and relative performance is on a new ‘buy’ trigger.

Small Caps had the best of the day’s action but given they are leading with no overhead resistance the chance for buying ‘value’ is less than for other indices. However, momentum traders can look to this index for opportunities. Relative performance is not surprisingly, excellent.

The Nasdaq has shaped its own consolidation just below 7,435. While relative performance has started to lag it hasn’t yet turned negative and all other technicals are bullish.

The Nasdaq 100 has also shaped a ‘bullish flag’ is it works a challenge of the prior all-time high. It has seen a bearish turn in relative performance although I still see this as a bullish setup.

Overall, some nice bullish action which could follow with a trade-worthy bullish run. The Russell 2000 has the least path of resistance but it’s hard to set risk. The risk-reward from consolidations in Large Caps and Tech is easier to determine with upside targets of all-time highs (since broken in the Russell 2000).

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Weekly Market Recap May 20, 2018

by Chart School - May 21st, 2018 1:23 am

Courtesy of Blain.

This was a generally quiet week in the senior indexes, consolidating some of the prior week’s move up. That said the Russell 2000 had some very nice action with a “breakout!”. Otherwise pretty quiet on the news front except for TRADE WARS!(tm):

On Thursday, several news outlets reported that China had made an offer to cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by $200 billion, but a China official on Friday denied that an offer had been made.

For the week the S&P 500 closed down 0.5% while the NASDAQ fell 0.7%. The Russell 2000 diverged, gaining 1.3%.

The only major economic report this week was retail sales which gained 0.3% in April vs a revised 0.8% gain (up from 0.6%) in March.

Treasury yields were back in focus as a move over 3% happened again.

“The additional backup [in yields] appears to be driven by stronger expectations for growth and inflation, and the potential for additional Fed action beyond September,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel.

That was accompanied by some strength in the dollar chart.

Week FIVE of very good action in the crude oil chart.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 …via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May 1-2 meeting, which could add to the dollar and Treasury yield climb should they sound a hawkish tone. Not too much else on the docket that strikes the imagination at the moment.

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 remains above this trend line connecting highs of 2018.

The Russell 2000 = boom! This article states some reasoning for the divergence.

Small cap stocks tend to be more U.S. focused in terms of their geographic footprint and where they derive their revenue. As such, they are seen as insulated from all manner of international headwinds, including trade policy and other geopolitical tensions. Furthermore,

…

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SP500 Cycle Review

by Chart School - May 20th, 2018 4:32 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-cycle-review The herd is fully invested into stocks, cornered into believing the SP500 cant go down.

More from RTT Tv

Chart for the video

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SP500 cycle

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”..

Jesse Livermore

..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..

Bernard Baruch

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch

..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”

Warren Buffett

..”A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim”..

Kenneth Chang

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Volatility Floored

by Zero Hedge - May 17th, 2018 9:06 am

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The VIX may struggle to move much lower than current levels – and may signal limitations to further stock market gains.

Some folks argue that technical analysis cannot be applied — and therefore should not be attempted — on volatility markets. We actually used to be in that camp but, given the evidence we’ve observed over time, we have changed our tune. We think support and resistance levels, particularly via trendlines, have been readily identifiable on many occasion. And one pretty significant signal in that regard may be in the works at the moment.

Since its high in 2015 (coinciding with the S&P 500 low), we’ve seen a discernible downtrend in the VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index). Not only that, but the intermittent VIX peaks over that time serve to form a nearly pristine Down trendline on the chart. Now, it seems that the likelihood of such a clean trendline forming at random is nearly inconceivable. However, we’ll let pundits and philosophers opine on the topic of TA and volatility charts. We are operating under the assumption that recent action is notrandom — and that such analysis can assist us, at times, in our stock market decision-making. One of those times, again, may be now.

As the chart shows, the VIX did finally break above its post-2015 Down trendline in late January/early February of this year. After its subsequent spike into early February, the VIX settled back down. Where did it find support? Right on the top of the broken post-2015 Down trendline on March 9. While it was bouncing firmly off of that support, stocks were, at the same time, stalling out, eventually turning back down to test its February correction lows.

Following the VIX’s bump up in volatility into April, it has settled back down again. And presently, as stocks have bounced again, we find the VIX once again nearing a test of that broken post-2015 Down trendline.

As it did in March, the trendline may provide nearby support for the VIX. If successful, that may also serve as a signal that further upside in stocks may be tough to come by in the near-term.

Obviously, only prices will tell the…

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Bulls Step In – Easing Bearish Concerns as Small Caps Breakout

by Chart School - May 16th, 2018 7:04 pm

Courtesy of Declan

Monday offered the bearish doji / swing high set up which had looked like it was going to create the 3-day bearish evening star set up across markets; this pattern did present itself Tuesday with the gap downs but today (Wednesday) saw rallies which were enough to close these gaps but not enough to negate the 'bearish evening star' setups. However, the bearish 'evening star' is typically a reliable setup and the lack of follow through lower suggests more upside is to come

The S&P had its breakout last week with supporting technicals all bullish, with the exception of relative performance. Despite this, look for a continuation of this rally.

The Nasdaq is still range bound but is closer to pressuring resistance. Look for a challenge of the 'bull trap' into next week. Long term buy-and-hold can use this now 5-month consolidation to build up positions to hold for 5 years+; it has the look of a consolidation which will ultimately lead to higher prices.

Better still are Small Caps. Today offered a clear breakout which will help other indices push higher. Any shorts who attacked the January high will have been forced to cover. There was even an uptick in relative performance.

Finally, the Semiconductor Index added over 1% as it challenged its bearish 'evening star'. A push above 1,394 would open for a move to 1,464. The robust defense of the 200-day MA in the latter part of April should over enough to see the March highs tested.

For tomorrow, look for upside follow through in the Russell 2000 which will help bring Tech, then Large Caps along with it.

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RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - May 15th, 2018 6:11 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latest Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.