Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

DAX Index Hits Two 18-Year Support Lines, Creates Large Bullish Reversal

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Has the DAX index from Germany experience a large decline of late? Yes, it has!

Has the decline broken long-term rising support lines? Not so far!

This chart looks at the DAX index on a monthly basis over the past 25-years. Over the past 6-years, it has traded sideways inside of the blue rectangle at (1).

The decline this year saw the DAX hit two 18-year rising support lines at (2) last month, where a large bullish reversal took place.

Until broken, important support remains in play at (2), which is bullish for this key index.

If the DAX takes out both of these 18-year support lines, it would send a strong bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States!

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Megaphone 20-Year Support Holding, Dow Experiences Historic Rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Should investors be surprised by the strong rally over the past couple of weeks? Not if one is aware of this giant megaphone pattern, that was first highlighted on 11/24/17!

This chart looks at the Dow Jones Industrials on a monthly basis, reflecting it has remained inside of the 70-year rising channel (1).

It hit the top of the channel at the start of this year at (3), creating a large bearish monthly reversal pattern, prior to the virus being front-page news.

The decline in the first quarter has the Dow testing 20-year rising support at (4), where it created a large bullish reversal pattern.

Even though the Dow has experienced a historic decline in the first quarter, it did not break 20-year support at (4).

If the bears are going to be correct and the sky is going to fall, support at (4) will first have to be taken out. If it does the next key support level happens to be the 2007 highs in the Dow.

Are we headed towards an economic depression or has the majority been fooled and the lows are already in play?

See our thoughts in this video and how to take advantage of our 40-year anniversary special.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

the-big-short-movie-guides-us-to-what-is-next-for-the-stock-marketThere is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  

The big short

In the movie ‘The Big Short’ some market players got ahead of the crowd and shorted the US housing market.

When the US housing market began to crumble the majority of WallStreet was long and wrong, and losses on the longs were going to be incredible, they had to get short. WallStreet needed to load up on shorts to participate in the money making down trend.

There is a scene in the movie where Dr Michael Burry is on the phone expressing his frustration as to why the banker had marked up the housing bond index when the mortgages themselves were crashing, the index should have been marked down, of course this was banker fraud to allow the bankers themselves to short the same index as Dr Michael Burry. POINT: Wallstreet does not want to miss out on major market moves.

Roll forward to 2020 and the SP500 suffers its worst 30% down move since 1929 (Wyckoff terms this as a ‘Sign of Weakness’). Wallstreet has not made any money on this move, if fact like the housing market they are long and wrong, and like 2008 they need to get short. The question is how?

The answer is simple, re look at 2001 and 2008 SP500 price actions (chart below), after price had fallen to the red line (250 weekly SMA), a bounce was organised to near the blue line (150 weekly SMA) to allow WallStreet market players to short the coming down trend.

The stock market has not had all the bad news yet, earnings slump, supply chain issues, derivative blow ups, bank risk news, c19 news. There is plenty of ammo for WallStreet to blame a down trend on while they profit with shorts. The chart below shows how we can expect a rinse and repeat of 2001 and 2008 organised…
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S&P Repeating 2000 & 2007 Patterns Almost Exactly?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does History Repeat? Is does rhyme sometimes!!!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 20-years.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2000-2003 bear market. On the week of 3/23/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear market resumed.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2007-2009 bear market. On the week of 3/21/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear market resumed.

Last month the S&P hit a low during the week of 3/27/20. Is a counter-trend rally starting right on schedule? If so, will it last 8-weeks again?

Both counter-trend rallies hit the same Fibonacci retracement level, before rolling over and resuming bear markets.

The odds are low the pattern repeats exactly! The impact would be big if it does!

We shared this pattern with members on 3/20/20, reflecting that a counter-trend rally was due to start the following week. I humbly feel it is to all of our benefits to be aware of this pattern and what to watch for in a very detailed degree, to see if the bigger pattern is repeating the bear markets of the past!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Depression Coming or Is the Bottom Already In? Joe Friday Says Your Answer Lies Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we headed towards a Depression or is the worst already behind us? In today’s world, comparisons to the great depression are easy to find.

Are the Depression concerns well founded or are the declines of late already pricing in a bottom?

In my humble opinion, this chart and the upcoming price action of this index will go miles and miles towards telling us if we are headed towards very tough times or if the huge declines of late are actually in a bottoming process.

This chart looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index on a monthly basis over the past 54 years. The index has been heading south, reflecting weakness in demand for basic commodities over the past 9 years, despite easing of credit around the world by central banks.

The index tested 29-year support in 2009, which ended up holding, reflecting the worst of the financial crisis was priced into the market.

Now the decline over the past 9 years has the commodity index currently testing the 2009 lows. This support is support until broken!

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If the index holds at 2009 support, it would suggest that lows are in play and the worst has already been priced into the markets. If the index breaks this 40-year support/resistance line, it would suggest that some really tough times are ahead! What this index does from here, friends will send all of us a very important message about the future of the macroeconomy.

Two weeks ago today, Joe Friday reflected that “Three support levels” were in play, sending important messages to the markets. See Post Here

This 3-pack reflected that the S&P, Doc Copper and Crude Oil were ALL facing support tests at each (1).  Remember, support is support until broken!

What has happened since Joe Friday shared that strong support levels were in play? The S&P has experienced the largest 3-day rally since the 1930’s and yesterday (4/2) Crude Oil experienced the largest single-day rally (Up +26%) in the past 40-years!

Just the Facts Ma’am; Crude Oil, Doc Copper, S&P 500 and the TR commodity index are ALL TESTING LONG-TERM SUPPORT LEVELS AT THE SAME TIME! What these four assets do at these support tests will go miles and miles towards answering if a


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S&P 500 Price Pattern Similar to 2008 Market Crash?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Last week’s sharp rally off the lows, gave bulls some relief.

But if the bulls are going to have reason to cheer, they will need to see another move higher… and fast!

Why? Just look at today’s “weekly” price chart of the S&P 500 Index. 

This key broad-based index broke a 10-year bull market trend line in March. And it’s now kissing the underside of the trend line at (2).

The last stock market crash saw a similar pattern in 2008. And after a failed “kiss” of resistance at (1), selling pressure accelerated.

Sometimes things don’t “repeat”, but rather “rhyme”. Will we see selling pressure pick up?

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P Facing A Historical Kiss of Resistance?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the S&P starting out a new month and quarter at a very important price point? This chart would say YES!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 12-years, reflecting that it has spent the majority of the past 9-years “inside of this rising channel and above its 200-week moving average!”

The weakness in March saw the S&P break below the bottom of the channel and its 200-week ma line for the first time in 9-years.

The small counter-trend rally last week has the S&P starting out the month/quarter kissing the underside of the channel and MA line, which now come into play as resistance for the first time in nearly a decade.

Is the S&P facing a very important kiss of resistance at (1)? At this time it is!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Fear Indicators Creating Huge Bearish Reversal Patterns This Month?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a rough month for Stocks and Crude Oil. Could these two indicators be suggesting that a panic in fear has run out of steam?

This 2-pack looks at the fear indicators in the Nasdaq (VXN) and Crude Oil (OVX).

Both were at the highest levels in years back in 2008. Both peaked in 2008, as they created monthly bearish reversal patterns.

Turing the page to March of 2020, the Nasdaq fear index could be double topping at the 2008 highs and the Crude Oil fear index is hitting the highest level in history.

While hitting these lofty level, as the month is coming to a close, both look to be creating the largest bears reversal patterns in the past 13-years, at the same time!

If these patterns are sending us a correct signal, both of them are suggesting both have created short-term highs this month.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

big-moving-averages-and-macro-investment-decisionsWhen price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.





RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 



















Divider







Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”[Point and] figure charts are more valuable than vertical [bar] charts”..



Richard D Wyckoff





..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..



George Soros





.”Buying stuff people hate, that’s the business we are in, right!”…”you may need to have a longer time horizon”…”be patient”..



Mark Yusko





…“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”…



Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain











Tech Testing 9-Year Support, With Fear Levels At 2009 Highs!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important Tech Index sending a bullish message to investors? It is making an attempt!

Does that mean a low in this important sector is in play? Humbly it is too soon to say at this time!

This chart looks at the Nasdaq Composite Index over the past 25-years on a monthly basis.

The index has spent the majority of the past 9-years inside of rising channel (1), as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs. It created bearish reversal patterns in January & February as it was kissing the underside of the top of the channel and its fear index was near multi-year lows. The index then declined by nearly 30% following these bearish patterns.

The waterfall decline that has taken place the past 60-days has the index attempting to create a large monthly bullish reversal pattern as it tests dual support at (2). At the same time, its fear index is attempting to create a large bearish reversal pattern, as it could be double topping at its 2009 highs.

Keep this in mind, despite the index declining nearly 30% from its highs, its 9-year rising channel remains in play, which for the short-term sends a positive message.

If dual support at (2) is broken to the downside, this index would send a negative message to the broader market and strong selling pressure would take place. At this time, that message has not been sent.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Investors urge pharmas to develop treatments for COVID-19

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Investors urge pharma companies to work collaboratively on developing treatments for COVID-19

Global pandemic calls for urgent and collective action to heal the sick and to prevent further contagion.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

NEW YORK, NY, TUESDAY, APRIL 7TH, 2020 - Investor members of the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility have sent ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Mood of Traders Darkens on Wall Street

Courtesy of Pam Martens

New York Stock Exchange Shutters Its Trading Floor on March 23, 2020 as Two Employees Test Positive for Coronavirus

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 7, 2020 ~

It’s become your life or your trading bonus at some Wall Street firms.

On November 10 of last year, Lesley Stahl of the CBS investigative news program, 60 Minutes, interviewed Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. As part of the interview, Dimon strolled Stahl around one of his trading floors...



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Zero Hedge

Did Capital One Run Into A Commodity Prepay Wall?

ourtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Jacques Simon,

In our last post we touted a too-big too fail return in the commodity-sector (a name nobody dare to pronounced. Today prices are down but market volatility is up (VaR is up, prices are down). Capital one, a FDIC-insured bank is allowed to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX Index Hits Two 18-Year Support Lines, Creates Large Bullish Reversal

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Has the DAX index from Germany experience a large decline of late? Yes, it has!

Has the decline broken long-term rising support lines? Not so far!

This chart looks at the DAX index on a monthly basis over the past 25-years. Over the past 6-years, it has traded sideways inside of the blue rectangle at (1).

The decline this year saw the DAX hit two 18-year rising support lines at (2) last month, where a large bullish reversal took place.

Until broken, important support remains in play at (2), which is bullish for this key index....



more from Kimble C.S.

Biotech/COVID-19

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

more from Chart School

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.