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GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

lflantheman
Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!

Howard Roake
I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

KMisko
Phil, have to thank you for saving me today. I think the discipline I have learned from this site has helped me as much if not more than the actual picks.

Rustle123
Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.

Mkozberg
Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

flipspiceland
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!

Investwizard
Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

RMM
Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours. Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!

Eyezz
This is my first month here. Today was a money train with futures. I gained 7500 USD with KC, RB, CL, NG. I took RB almost every direction up and down. And I only used 1 contract or maximum 2. Thank you. I think it was a good investment to subscribe…

Kgabor
Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!

Traderd
Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

RMM
Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.

Batman
I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.

TokyoLife
Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.

Zeroxzero
Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!

Barfinger
Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

Neverworkagain
Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.

Judahbenhur
Thanks, Phil!!! I just crushed today with it with silver (SLV) calls today, thanks to your persistent reminders of how ridiculously cheap it has become, and watching my TSLA this week $240 puts dissolve into chump change added an extra note of amusement.

Zeroxzero
It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

Pirateinvestor
I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.

Knightpilot
WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.

Craigzooka
Have been a member for about 6 months or there abouts. Signed up for a quarter at first and then for a year. To me, and it's only my opinion, it's an investment and I have made the membership fees back many times over on the strategy advice. Since joining and implementing the strategy of buy/writes and hedges I have cut my portfolio losses for the year and have a really good chance of going positive this year. If I would have continued down the road I was on, I would still have been fumbling around without a strategy and completely inept in what I was doing. I feel now the strategy is working and I am far more comfortable with the risks I am taking. I still have a lot to learn but I feel the fees have been one of the best investments I have made. The returns have been fantastic. Still have problems with the politics but hey nobody is perfect

DKGuy
I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.

Jordan
Great call on expe Phil! Went long 50 shares and sold for a nice profit! And Great call on the nkd shorts as well. I didn't use a stop that tight and was able to cover for a $400 gain. Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! It's almost always quite profitable! Looking forward to Vegas!

Jromeha
I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.

Denlundy
We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.

Newthugger
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

Jromeha
I have been a member for over six years and I still learn something new every day. This site gives you the skills to trade without having to be spoon fed. More importantly it teaches you about risk which is WAY more important than profit. Honestly, it is not a get rich quick scheme!

Malsg
Phil / TNA – On Monday you put out the TNA BCS 41/47. As I mentioned I work during market hours so on Tuesday morning on my way out the door (premarket) I put in an advanced TOS '1st trigger sequence' order to fill the BCS. I can control the entry using this method vs. the vertical entry that TOS allows for the BCS. I filled the June 41 long call but never filled the 47 short call. I let that ride into today. OMG ..TNA popped 7.5%!… the $3.60 entry is almost a double! Tomorrow will be a OCO bracket to get out of TNA before Ben speaks. I should be able to preserve 85% – 100% on the trade. For the income portfolio plays in my IRA's, doing very well… I do like collecting premium! Well done and thanks!

JFawcett

Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Second Day of Bullish Defense

by Chart School - May 24th, 2018 5:41 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

The market had initially reacted to Trump’s decision to cancel his North Korean summit before coming to its senses and finishing where it left off yesterday.

For the Russell 2000 it was a bullish doji to follow the ‘hammer’; those brave enough to buy the morning dip will be feeling confident as technicals remain bullish.

The S&P remains range bound but the longer this tight consolidation continues the stronger the reaction when it does eventually break (up or down).

It was a similar story for the Nasdaq; range bound but looking more likely to break upside.

The Dow Jones posted a bullish hammer which kept the gap based on the open-close range. Relative performance edges towards bears but price action runs in bulls favour.

The Nasdaq 100 ranks as a breakout within a narrow rising channel. Look for a challenge on 7,186 as the index looks to shape a new base. Technicals are a little flat but still favour bulls.

The watch for tomorrow is the same as it was yesterday. Bears will need a confirmed break of the trading range to suggest shorts have a chance; aggressive shorts could play it here with a cover on a confirmed breakdown but the likelihood is for a quick cover. the less risky option is to prepare for continuation of the breakout.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Successful Test of Breakout for Russell 2000

by Chart School - May 23rd, 2018 6:16 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday’s losses were reversed by a decent recovery which effectively confirmed trading ranges and in the case of the Russell 2000 tagged breakout support.

The small ‘hammer’ in the Russell 2000 is a picture-perfect reaction to the breakout.

In the case of the S&P, today’s intraday range staddled the range of the 2-week handle; the close near its highs suggest a follow through (higher) soon; stops go on a loss of 2,700 with a target of January highs around 2,875.

It was a similar setup for the Nasdaq Today’s buying ranked as accumulation as supporting technicals remain net bullish and relative performance remains ahead of Large Caps

The Nasdaq 100 actually managed to go a step further and break from the bullish flag suggesting other indices in similar situations will do likewise.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average filled the gap breakout but didn’t undercut the lows of the ‘pennant’ flag.

For tomorrow, the preferred setup is for longs; long-term buyers can also look to accumulate. Momentum traders can stick with the Russell 2000. Shorts don’t have a lot to work with.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Wide Market Cycle Review

by Chart School - May 22nd, 2018 3:36 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

wide-market-cycle-review Lets review some big market cycles, to see where cycle pressure is building or peaking.

Cycles are like long term trend lines and are great for the long term view, of course price action leads (Wyckoff Logic) before cycles.

Lets go …

US 10 yr: Trending higher to 4% … Ouch. Inflation moving from Wall Street to Main Street.

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US 10 yr

The EURO looks to bottom (USD topping).

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Euro

SSEC looks forward to another pump up to save the SP500.

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SSEC cycle

Copper looks to move higher supporting higher interest rates and inflation.

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Copper

Oil may only be getting started.

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Oil cycle

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said: `There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical points of force.”…

William D Gann

..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..

Philip Fisher

Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

Warren Buffett

..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..

Spike Milligan

..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..

Mark Twain

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Narrow Trading Ranges Set Up New Breakout Opportunities

by Chart School - May 21st, 2018 6:08 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

The past few days have seen markets shape narrow mini-trading ranges, each following breakouts from larger consolidations. Large Caps show this best

The S&P cleared a dual 4-month and 6-week consolidation before shaping the past 8-day ‘flag’. Look for a break of 2,740 and a push to challenge the next swing high at 2,800 – although a test of this should be enough to go on and challenge all-time highs.

The Dow Jones Index could be considered to have broken from its mini-consolidation. Volume was not hugely impressive but technicals are all bullish and relative performance is on a new ‘buy’ trigger.

Small Caps had the best of the day’s action but given they are leading with no overhead resistance the chance for buying ‘value’ is less than for other indices. However, momentum traders can look to this index for opportunities. Relative performance is not surprisingly, excellent.

The Nasdaq has shaped its own consolidation just below 7,435. While relative performance has started to lag it hasn’t yet turned negative and all other technicals are bullish.

The Nasdaq 100 has also shaped a ‘bullish flag’ is it works a challenge of the prior all-time high. It has seen a bearish turn in relative performance although I still see this as a bullish setup.

Overall, some nice bullish action which could follow with a trade-worthy bullish run. The Russell 2000 has the least path of resistance but it’s hard to set risk. The risk-reward from consolidations in Large Caps and Tech is easier to determine with upside targets of all-time highs (since broken in the Russell 2000).

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Weekly Market Recap May 20, 2018

by Chart School - May 21st, 2018 1:23 am

Courtesy of Blain.

This was a generally quiet week in the senior indexes, consolidating some of the prior week’s move up. That said the Russell 2000 had some very nice action with a “breakout!”. Otherwise pretty quiet on the news front except for TRADE WARS!(tm):

On Thursday, several news outlets reported that China had made an offer to cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by $200 billion, but a China official on Friday denied that an offer had been made.

For the week the S&P 500 closed down 0.5% while the NASDAQ fell 0.7%. The Russell 2000 diverged, gaining 1.3%.

The only major economic report this week was retail sales which gained 0.3% in April vs a revised 0.8% gain (up from 0.6%) in March.

Treasury yields were back in focus as a move over 3% happened again.

“The additional backup [in yields] appears to be driven by stronger expectations for growth and inflation, and the potential for additional Fed action beyond September,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel.

That was accompanied by some strength in the dollar chart.

Week FIVE of very good action in the crude oil chart.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 …via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May 1-2 meeting, which could add to the dollar and Treasury yield climb should they sound a hawkish tone. Not too much else on the docket that strikes the imagination at the moment.

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 remains above this trend line connecting highs of 2018.

The Russell 2000 = boom! This article states some reasoning for the divergence.

Small cap stocks tend to be more U.S. focused in terms of their geographic footprint and where they derive their revenue. As such, they are seen as insulated from all manner of international headwinds, including trade policy and other geopolitical tensions. Furthermore,

…

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SP500 Cycle Review

by Chart School - May 20th, 2018 4:32 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-cycle-review The herd is fully invested into stocks, cornered into believing the SP500 cant go down.

More from RTT Tv

Chart for the video

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SP500 cycle

..“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”..

Jesse Livermore

..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..

Bernard Baruch

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch

..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”

Warren Buffett

..”A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim”..

Kenneth Chang

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Volatility Floored

by Zero Hedge - May 17th, 2018 9:06 am

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The VIX may struggle to move much lower than current levels – and may signal limitations to further stock market gains.

Some folks argue that technical analysis cannot be applied — and therefore should not be attempted — on volatility markets. We actually used to be in that camp but, given the evidence we’ve observed over time, we have changed our tune. We think support and resistance levels, particularly via trendlines, have been readily identifiable on many occasion. And one pretty significant signal in that regard may be in the works at the moment.

Since its high in 2015 (coinciding with the S&P 500 low), we’ve seen a discernible downtrend in the VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index). Not only that, but the intermittent VIX peaks over that time serve to form a nearly pristine Down trendline on the chart. Now, it seems that the likelihood of such a clean trendline forming at random is nearly inconceivable. However, we’ll let pundits and philosophers opine on the topic of TA and volatility charts. We are operating under the assumption that recent action is notrandom — and that such analysis can assist us, at times, in our stock market decision-making. One of those times, again, may be now.

As the chart shows, the VIX did finally break above its post-2015 Down trendline in late January/early February of this year. After its subsequent spike into early February, the VIX settled back down. Where did it find support? Right on the top of the broken post-2015 Down trendline on March 9. While it was bouncing firmly off of that support, stocks were, at the same time, stalling out, eventually turning back down to test its February correction lows.

Following the VIX’s bump up in volatility into April, it has settled back down again. And presently, as stocks have bounced again, we find the VIX once again nearing a test of that broken post-2015 Down trendline.

As it did in March, the trendline may provide nearby support for the VIX. If successful, that may also serve as a signal that further upside in stocks may be tough to come by in the near-term.

Obviously, only prices will tell the…

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Bulls Step In – Easing Bearish Concerns as Small Caps Breakout

by Chart School - May 16th, 2018 7:04 pm

Courtesy of Declan

Monday offered the bearish doji / swing high set up which had looked like it was going to create the 3-day bearish evening star set up across markets; this pattern did present itself Tuesday with the gap downs but today (Wednesday) saw rallies which were enough to close these gaps but not enough to negate the 'bearish evening star' setups. However, the bearish 'evening star' is typically a reliable setup and the lack of follow through lower suggests more upside is to come

The S&P had its breakout last week with supporting technicals all bullish, with the exception of relative performance. Despite this, look for a continuation of this rally.

The Nasdaq is still range bound but is closer to pressuring resistance. Look for a challenge of the 'bull trap' into next week. Long term buy-and-hold can use this now 5-month consolidation to build up positions to hold for 5 years+; it has the look of a consolidation which will ultimately lead to higher prices.

Better still are Small Caps. Today offered a clear breakout which will help other indices push higher. Any shorts who attacked the January high will have been forced to cover. There was even an uptick in relative performance.

Finally, the Semiconductor Index added over 1% as it challenged its bearish 'evening star'. A push above 1,394 would open for a move to 1,464. The robust defense of the 200-day MA in the latter part of April should over enough to see the March highs tested.

For tomorrow, look for upside follow through in the Russell 2000 which will help bring Tech, then Large Caps along with it.

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RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - May 15th, 2018 6:11 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latest Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.