Gold Stocks Review
by Chart School - June 26th, 2022 5:05 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker
Gold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.
Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?
1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.
A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All these rallies coincided with a move higher in oil and a move lower in the US dollar. Recently oil moved from $70 to $110 but gold did not move higher, this is because the US dollar was strong during the same period.
Currently some 2022 H2 fundamentals are brewing which may see higher oil prices with a lower US dollar:
Oil: The coming 2022/23 European winter will send world oil and gas prices much higher. Europe has refused Russian supplies and the clash between consumers and politicians is coming, and before a deal is done oil and gas will be much higher.
US dollar: The FED pauses or cuts rate, halts balance sheet reduction. Due to high recession risk they are forced to pivot. More so they pivot while the ECB is hiking rates. Biden has worked out the recession doom talk is worse than inflation going in to the US mid terms.
A move higher in gold will see the gold miners do well, more so if the stock market moves higher as well. This may happen when and if the FED switches from extreme hawk to maybe a mild hawk or even a dove with monetary policy.
Yes the FED can flip flop!
Some charts
Chart 1 – Gold Miners Junior: Good accumulation is present. Richard Wyckoff laws applied.
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Oil Stocks Counter-Trend Rally Over Should Support Break, Says Joe Friday
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 24th, 2022 3:22 pm
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
For over 2 years, all crude oil prices did was go higher… and higher. And consumers have been feeling this pain as the gas pump.
Well, this month crude oil prices turned sharply lower joining the broad based commodities selloff. Could this be the start of a long awaited pullback? If so, oil related stocks and sectors would likely also turn lower.
It’s that day of the week, so let’s turn to Joe Friday for “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.”
Today’s chart is a long-term monthly chart of the Oil Services Sector ETF (OIH).
As you can see, OIH has been in a falling channel marked by each (1) since it started creating lower highs back in 2008.
The latest 2-year counter-trend rally looks to have hit dual resistance at (2), where OIH could be creating a large bearish engulfing pattern. And this month’s turn lower is now testing important trend line support at (3). If this support breaks, oil stocks could head much lower!
Could the oil stocks counter-trend rally be over? Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Are Commodities Double Topping After Historic Run?
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 23rd, 2022 4:19 pm
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
We have covered the commodities rally and highlighted the everyday concerns with rising inflation and rising interest rates.
Today, we’ll revisit some long-term charts of key commodities and discuss why we should be watching for potential topping formations.
Below is a 4-pack of charts looking at Crude Oil, Gold, Wheat, and the TR Commodity Index.
As you can see, the charts for Crude Oil, Gold, and Wheat appear to be creating double top patterns each at (1). Each of these charts are also creating “monthly” bearish reversals.
Further, if this charts are reversing lower they will impact the other chart of the Commodity Index. As you can see, the index is also creating a bearish reversal at important resistance at (2).
A strong reversal lower would be bearish for the commodities sector. And perhaps some positive news for inflation. Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Dow Theory Indices All Declining From Trend Resistance!
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 22nd, 2022 10:45 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
For the past century, investors have use the tried and true Dow Theory sell signal as a bear market warning. Though the transportation sector is much different than it once was, it still carries importance today.
Several indices are already in a bear market, so concerns are already high… and sell signals abound.
That said, I thought it would be a good exercise to look at 4 key indices that make up a more broad-based Dow Theory (I’ve included the Dow Jones Utilities and NYSE Index).
The charts are long-term and the selling (and damage) is obvious. But, more importantly, we can see that these long-term charts have been in a broad rising up-trend channel. And each index reached resistance and started its decline from the upper trend channel… and is now in decline.
Clearly, these Dow Theory Indices are each struggling at long-term resistance. In practice, No bull investor wants to see each index test the bottom of these channels. That would be really ugly. Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Cycle Review
by Chart School - June 17th, 2022 4:15 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker
Some big cycles in major market leading trends to review.
Bitcoin is at or near a bottom, maybe time for a base to build.
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Big gold cycle getting ready to signal much higher prices into the next decade.
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ASX Gold stock near the bottom.
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Crude Oil is running hot.
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The mighty US Dollar is near a peak, easy money has been made.
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
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Investing Quote…
…”They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.”..
Jesse Livermore
…”There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force,
Nasdaq Composite Declines Into Must-Hold Price Support!
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 14th, 2022 1:15 pm
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
Technology stocks have been the market leader for the past 13 years.
But what leads on the way up, often leads on the way down. And with inflation and rising interest rates, it’s the growth-oriented technology sector that is getting hit the hardest.
Today we look at a long-term “weekly” chart of the Nasdaq Composite.
As you can see, the Nasdaq soared above its 261.8% Fibonacci extension en route to all-time highs last year. But the multi-month decline has seen the index fall over 30%. Yikes!
More important is that the Nasdaq is re-testing its 261.8% Fibonacci level, as well as its 200-week moving average and lower parallel channel support from dot-com highs and initial lows.
Seems to me that this is a very important level for bulls to hold. If we see a breakdown here, I expect selling will accelerate. Stay tuned
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
50-Year Trend Channel Has Stocks Spooked, Says Joe Friday
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 10th, 2022 11:29 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
Have interest rates gone up enough? Odds are high, this question is on the minds of global investors.
This chart looks at the 10-year yield, on a quarterly basis, since 1963.
For more than 50-years, yields have created lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (1).
The rally in yields over the past two years has yields testing 2018 highs and the top of the channel at (2).
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; 50-year channel resistance is in play. If rates breakout at (2), odds increase stocks will be concerned with it!
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Animal Spirits: Good News is Bad News
by ilene - June 9th, 2022 5:59 pm
Animal Spirits: Good News is Bad News
Courtesy of Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor
Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts.
On today’s show we discuss:
- Targets margins are getting squeezed
- The state of the economy survey
- Wages are still going up
- The dark side of the hot labor market
- Job growth remains strong
- The tech crash could lead to a talent bonanza for big tech
- Retail investors are buying U.S. Government Bonds
- The worst years ever for a 60/40 portfolio
- BlockFi is raising a down round
- Myth-busting: is the US Dollar losing reserve currency status?
-
The U.S. and Europe have different inflation problems
- 1/3 of Americans making $250k are living paycheck to paycheck
- U.S. savings rate lowest since 2008
- Buy now pay later companies being tested
- Housing affordability
- Ric Edelman on Crypto, retirement planning, the advice business, and more
- Bipartisan Crypto bill
- Solana suffered its second outage in a month
- Coinbase slowing hiring
- The Netflix token
- The U.S. is in a pessimistic mood
- The SECs Meme Stock video
- Demand for the CFA falls off a cliff
- The interrobang
- Top Gun: Maverick is killing it
- Netflix’s leaner movie selection
Future Proof Festival:
Listen here:
Transcript here:
Recommendations:
- Top Gun: Maverick music
- Everybody Wants Some
- Cocktail
- Philadelphia
- James Earl Jones
- We Own This City
Charts:
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First image by Gerhard Erb from Pixabay
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Why Doc Copper Is About To Experience A Big Move!
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 8th, 2022 9:09 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
Seems the ‘Metals’ arena may be nearing a bigger move.
Earlier this week, we touched on precious metal Silver, and now we will turn our attention to the industrial metal Copper.
Today’s chart is a long-term “monthly” chart of Copper, highlighting why we may be at an important juncture.
As you can see in the chart below, copper has produced a couple of double tops at each (1), as well as some considerable bounces off price support (green line).
Right now, copper is testing resistance. It’s still in question whether the two longer wicks will produce a double top, or whether this is part of a bullish consolidation construct between $4 and $5.
If it’s a double top, copper could see a large decline. But if it’s bullish consolidation, ethnically copper could be headed to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension up near $7.
This is shaping up to be another important metals situation. Which way will copper break? Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Silver Trying To Hold Key Price Support Level!
by kimblechartingsolutions - June 7th, 2022 10:59 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
With the US Dollar Index trading over 100, precious metals prices have stalled out.
And if this headwind persists, it could push Silver below a key trading support level.
This support shows up on today’s “monthly” price chart for Silver.
As you can see, Silver has found resistance at the $22 level at each (1) over the past 40 years. Note that this also marks the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level, adding significance to this price level.
Well, this month Silver is testing that very same $22 price level as support at (2). Silver MUST hold here at (2). If support fails, it could head back toward the $14 zone again! Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.