Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

gold-stocks-reviewGold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.

Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?

1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.

A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All these rallies coincided with a move higher in oil and a move lower in the US dollar. Recently oil moved from $70 to $110 but gold did not move higher, this is because the US dollar was strong during the same period.

Currently some 2022 H2 fundamentals are brewing which may see higher oil prices with a lower US dollar:

Oil: The coming 2022/23 European winter will send world oil and gas prices much higher. Europe has refused Russian supplies and the clash between consumers and politicians is coming, and before a deal is done oil and gas will be much higher.

US dollar: The FED pauses or cuts rate, halts balance sheet reduction. Due to high recession risk they are forced to pivot. More so they pivot while the ECB is hiking rates. Biden has worked out the recession doom talk is worse than inflation going in to the US mid terms.  

A move higher in gold will see the gold miners do well, more so if the stock market moves higher as well. This may happen when and if the FED switches from extreme hawk to maybe a mild hawk or even a dove with monetary policy. 

Yes the FED can flip flop!

Some charts

Chart 1 – Gold Miners Junior: Good accumulation is present. Richard Wyckoff laws applied.

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Oil Stocks Counter-Trend Rally Over Should Support Break, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

For over 2 years, all crude oil prices did was go higher… and higher. And consumers have been feeling this pain as the gas pump.

Well, this month crude oil prices turned sharply lower joining the broad based commodities selloff. Could this be the start of a long awaited pullback? If so, oil related stocks and sectors would likely also turn lower.

It’s that day of the week, so let’s turn to Joe Friday for “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.”

Today’s chart is a long-term monthly chart of the Oil Services Sector ETF (OIH).

As you can see, OIH has been in a falling channel marked by each (1) since it started creating lower highs back in 2008.

The latest 2-year counter-trend rally looks to have hit dual resistance at (2), where OIH could be creating a large bearish engulfing pattern. And this month’s turn lower is now testing important trend line support at (3). If this support breaks, oil stocks could head much lower!

Could the oil stocks counter-trend rally be over? Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Are Commodities Double Topping After Historic Run?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

We have covered the commodities rally and highlighted the everyday concerns with rising inflation and rising interest rates.

Today, we’ll revisit some long-term charts of key commodities and discuss why we should be watching for potential topping formations.

Below is a 4-pack of charts looking at Crude Oil, Gold, Wheat, and the TR Commodity Index.

As you can see, the charts for Crude Oil, Gold, and Wheat appear to be creating double top patterns each at (1). Each of these charts are also creating “monthly” bearish reversals.

Further, if this charts are reversing lower they will impact the other chart of the Commodity Index. As you can see, the index is also creating a bearish reversal at important resistance at (2).

A strong reversal lower would be bearish for the commodities sector. And perhaps some positive news for inflation. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Dow Theory Indices All Declining From Trend Resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

For the past century, investors have use the tried and true Dow Theory sell signal as a bear market warning. Though the transportation sector is much different than it once was, it still carries importance today.

Several indices are already in a bear market, so concerns are already high… and sell signals abound.

That said, I thought it would be a good exercise to look at 4 key indices that make up a more broad-based Dow Theory (I’ve included the Dow Jones Utilities and NYSE Index).

The charts are long-term and the selling (and damage) is obvious. But, more importantly, we can see that these long-term charts have been in a broad rising up-trend channel. And each index reached resistance and started its decline from the upper trend channel… and is now in decline.

Clearly, these Dow Theory Indices are each struggling at long-term resistance. In practice, No bull investor wants to see each index test the bottom of these channels. That would be really ugly. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

cycle-reviewSome big cycles in major market leading trends to review.

Bitcoin is at or near a bottom, maybe time for a base to build.

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BTC

Big gold cycle getting ready to signal much higher prices into the next decade. 

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Gold

ASX Gold stock near the bottom.

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NCM

Crude Oil is running hot.

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Oil

The mighty US Dollar is near a peak, easy money has been made.

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DXY

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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote…

…”They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.”..

Jesse Livermore

…”There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force,


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Nasdaq Composite Declines Into Must-Hold Price Support!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Technology stocks have been the market leader for the past 13 years.

But what leads on the way up, often leads on the way down. And with inflation and rising interest rates, it’s the growth-oriented technology sector that is getting hit the hardest.

Today we look at a long-term “weekly” chart of the Nasdaq Composite.

As you can see, the Nasdaq soared above its 261.8% Fibonacci extension en route to all-time highs last year. But the multi-month decline has seen the index fall over 30%. Yikes!

More important is that the Nasdaq is re-testing its 261.8% Fibonacci level, as well as its 200-week moving average and lower parallel channel support from dot-com highs and initial lows.

Seems to me that this is a very important level for bulls to hold. If we see a breakdown here, I expect selling will accelerate. Stay tuned

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





50-Year Trend Channel Has Stocks Spooked, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Have interest rates gone up enough? Odds are high, this question is on the minds of global investors.

This chart looks at the 10-year yield, on a quarterly basis, since 1963.

For more than 50-years, yields have created lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (1).

The rally in yields over the past two years has yields testing 2018 highs and the top of the channel at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; 50-year channel resistance is in play. If rates breakout at (2), odds increase stocks will be concerned with it!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Animal Spirits: Good News is Bad News

 

Animal Spirits: Good News is Bad News

Courtesy of Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor

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Why Doc Copper Is About To Experience A Big Move!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Seems the ‘Metals’ arena may be nearing a bigger move.

Earlier this week, we touched on precious metal Silver, and now we will turn our attention to the industrial metal Copper.

Today’s chart is a long-term “monthly” chart of Copper, highlighting why we may be at an important juncture.

As you can see in the chart below, copper has produced a couple of double tops at each (1), as well as some considerable bounces off price support (green line).

Right now, copper is testing resistance. It’s still in question whether the two longer wicks will produce a double top, or whether this is part of a bullish consolidation construct between $4 and $5.

If it’s a double top, copper could see a large decline. But if it’s bullish consolidation, ethnically copper could be headed to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension up near $7.

This is shaping up to be another important metals situation. Which way will copper break? Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver Trying To Hold Key Price Support Level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

With the US Dollar Index trading over 100, precious metals prices have stalled out.

And if this headwind persists, it could push Silver below a key trading support level.

This support shows up on today’s “monthly” price chart for Silver.

As you can see, Silver has found resistance at the $22 level at each (1) over the past 40 years. Note that this also marks the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level, adding significance to this price level.

Well, this month Silver is testing that very same $22 price level as support at (2). Silver MUST hold here at (2). If support fails, it could head back toward the $14 zone again! Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

China Delivers Advanced Frigate To Pakistan Navy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

By Joe Saballa of The Defense Post

China has delivered a second Type 054A/P frigate to the Pakistan Navy, providing a further boost to Islamabad’s maritime defense.

Named the PNS Taimur, the frigate is reportedly equipped with cutting-edge weapons and sensors to support maritime surveillance and combat missions.

It also has the latest combat management and electronic warfare systems, making it suitable in multi-threat environments.

Commissioning Ceremony of ...



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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.

Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?

1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.

A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All ...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

These Are The Ten Best-Performing Inverse Equity Funds

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Inverse funds are instruments that use various derivatives to benefit from the decline in the value of the underlying security. These funds could be of many types, such as those investing in debt, equity and more. In this article, we will be talking about Inverse Equity funds. These funds aim to generate returns that match an inverse fixed multiple of short-term returns of an equity index. Let’s take a look at the 10 best-performing Inverse Equity funds.

Ten Best-Performing Inverse Equity Funds

We have referred to the past one year return data (from money.usnews.com) of the ...



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Phil's Favorites

'A revolutionary ruling - and not just for abortion': A Supreme Court scholar explains the impact of Dobbs

 

‘A revolutionary ruling – and not just for abortion’: A Supreme Court scholar explains the impact of Dobbs

Anti-abortion protestors celebrate the overturning of Roe v. Wade outside the US Supreme Court on June 24. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Morgan Marietta, UMass Lowell

The Supreme Court’s decision to reverse 50 years of constitutional protection for the right to get an abortion is more than 200 pages long. ...



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Politics

'A revolutionary ruling - and not just for abortion': A Supreme Court scholar explains the impact of Dobbs

 

‘A revolutionary ruling – and not just for abortion’: A Supreme Court scholar explains the impact of Dobbs

Anti-abortion protestors celebrate the overturning of Roe v. Wade outside the US Supreme Court on June 24. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Morgan Marietta, UMass Lowell

The Supreme Court’s decision to reverse 50 years of constitutional protection for the right to get an abortion is more than 200 pages long. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Oil Stocks Counter-Trend Rally Over Should Support Break, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

For over 2 years, all crude oil prices did was go higher… and higher. And consumers have been feeling this pain as the gas pump.

Well, this month crude oil prices turned sharply lower joining the broad based commodities selloff. Could this be the start of a long awaited pullback? If so, oil related stocks and sectors would likely also turn lower.

It’s that day of the week, so let’s turn to Joe Friday for “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.”

Today’s chart is a long...



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Digital Currencies

Scams and cryptocurrency can go hand in hand - here's how they work and what to watch out for

 

Scams and cryptocurrency can go hand in hand – here’s how they work and what to watch out for

The anonymous nature of cryptocurrency transactions is ideal for con artists. seksan Mongkhonkhamsao/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Yaniv Hanoch, University of Southampton and Stacey Wood, Scripps College

When one of our students told us they were going to drop out of college ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

At last, COVID-19 shots for little kids - 5 essential reads

 

At last, COVID-19 shots for little kids – 5 essential reads

Millions of U.S. children between the ages of 6 months and 4 years will soon be eligible for COVID-19 shots. FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images

Courtesy of Amanda Mascarelli, The Conversation

For many parents of kids under age 5, a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine could not come soon enough. A full year and a half after shots first became available for adults, their wait is nearly over.

On June 17, 2022, the Food and Drug Administration ...



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Promotions

Phil: Be the House Not the Gambler at the Fintech Conference in Vegas

 

Phil gave an excellent, educational presentation called "Be the House Not the Gambler: Using Stock Options to Significantly Boost Your Portfolio Performance" at the FinTwit Conference hosted by Lupton Capital and Benzinga on May 14 in Las Vegas. The video is set to start playing at 5:30:45, when Phil takes the stage (but you can see previous presentations by backtracking).

AGENDA 
9:00 AM Opening Remarks with Jonah Lupton, Entrepreneur & Investor
9:05 AM Wagging the Dog: How to Profit From Derivative Driven Moves in the Market with Steven Place, Founder, Investingwithoptions.com
10:00 AM The MarketWebs & The Path of Least Resistance, Christian Fromhertz, CEO, The Tribeca Trade Group
10:55 AM Fireside Chat with Gareth Mann, Founder & CEO, AlphaStream & Spencer Israel, Executive Producer, Benzinga
11:25 AM Sponsor Pitch: Carolyn Bao, VP of Marke...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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