Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to create a bullish reversal pattern and a breakout at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The INDA/SPX ratio is attempting a breakout. It is possible that INDA is about to reflect some relative strength against the S&P 500!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Stocks, Oil, and Bond Yields At Critical Bullish Breakout Tests!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s not often that three asset classes reach similar important trading points all at once.

But that’s exactly what’s happening right now with stocks, crude oil, and treasury bond yields.

And this is occurring on Federal Reserve day no less! Something has got to give.

In the chart above you can see that all three are rallying into important resistance.

A couple of time this past year, these three experienced important inflection points at the same time. Deja vu?

Currently, another important inflection point for each looks to be in play at each (1). The outcome should result in a big move across the financial markets. Stay Tuned!

This post was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original article CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil Create A Panic Peak This Week?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Yesterday Crude Oil rallied nearly 15%. How often does Crude rally this much in a day? Not often!

How many times has Crude rallied nearly 15% in the past 20-years? Only one other time, which suggests that yesterdays move was a rare event.

This chart looks at Crude Oil on a weekly basis over the past 2-years. Last year Crude Oil created a bearish reversal pattern at the 2018 highs and a bullish reversal pattern at the 2018 lows.

Earlier this year, Crude created a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick pattern), while testing its 61% retracement level of last years highs/lows at (1).

The large rally in Crude yesterday saw it come near its 61% retracement level and the April highs at (2), where early in the week, it appears another large bearish reversal pattern.

The price action this week by Crude Oil could be suggesting that another peak could be taking place this week, just below its 61% retracement level and the April highs!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

crude-oil-cycle-bottom-aligns-with-saudi-oil-attackDo the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!



These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:



1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.



2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.



3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 



We shall see. 



Below we show off readtheticker RTT Cycle Finder Spectrum.





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Crude Oil cycle







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”It is not as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time.”..



Jesse Livermore





..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..



Robert G Allen





..“Because of the extreme challenge, one must commit full attention to it.” Market speculation is “no different than trying to be a successful doctor or lawyer … you simply must devote yourself full-time to the study of your craft”…



Bernard Baruch





..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..



Bernard Baruch







..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..



Bernard Baruch











A Behavioral Prescription

 

A Behavioral Prescription

Courtesy of 

There have been 17 separate 5% pullbacks since stocks bottomed in 2009. Each one of them felt like the top.

Okay, this is just a bit hyperbolic, but for people who don’t work in the financial services industry, the chart below shows some of the headlines and quotes they might have read when they opened their computer during market declines. Note that each of these 17 items were pulled from the day of the bottom. (Click to enlarge)

It’s hard to see headlines like this and not act on them. We know now that our worst fears did not come to pass, but there was no way to know at the time that each and every one of these pullbacks would resolve themselves to the upside.

One of the worst things that investors can do is overreact to market volatility. It’s perfectly normal to feel something, but adopting an all in or all out* mentality when the market goes up and down is destined to fail. What if, instead of going to cash every time the market pulls back, you simply get a little more defensive. Sure it will cost you money, but it will keep you in the game. The chart below shows 3 lines, via the data god

  • A 60/40 portfolio (blue)
  • A 60/40 portfolio that flips to 40/60 every time the S&P 500 has an x% pullback, and flips back to 60/40 when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high (green)
  • A 60/40 portfolio that goes to cash every time the S&P 500 has an x% decline and moves back to 60/40 when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high

Going from 60/40 to 40/60 when you get anxious is approximately a million times smarter than running to cash and waiting for the dust to settle. You can see this in the numbers below.

Going to cash every time stocks fall isn’t just expensive, it’s mentally crippling. You start hoping the market confirms your views and goes a lot lower. And


continue reading





Stocks Soar Near Record Highs Despite Bond Bloodbath, Momo Meltdown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Stocks Soar Near Record Highs Despite Bond Bloodbath, Momo Meltdown

Quite a week…

The biggest quant quake since 2009 (and 2002)

Source: Bloomberg

as Momentum collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

The momo massacre went global…

And factor dispersion collapsed…

h/t Michael Krause

And the antithesis of the momo massacre, value had its best week on record…

Source: Bloomberg

And relative to one another, it was a bloodbath…

Source: Bloomberg

And linked to this destruction, 30Y yields (amid record issuance) soared a stunning 33bps this week – second biggest yield spike since 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

But apart from that – global stocks rallied.

China ended higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe soared…

Source: Bloomberg

And US equities surged led by Trannies and Small Caps, each of which was panic-bid at every day's open. The Dow is up 8 days in a row. Nasdaq underperformed on the week…

That is the best week for Small Caps since Dec 2016 (and best for Trannies since Dec 2017)

Very narrow range in Dow futs in the day session (having tried and failed to break to new highs numerous times)…

The driver of the Trannies/Small Caps surge was


continue reading





Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

Crude Oil Monthly Chart Forecast


We believe the current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance over the next 25+ trading days before a bigger breakdown begins near Mid-October.  We expect the price to continue rotating within a fairly narrow range in alignment with our ADL predictions.  Our original article suggested a high price target area near $60 from our ADL research.  Now that Crude Oil has nearly reached this level, we believe the continued upside opportunity in Crude Oil is limited. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.

Daily Crude Oil Chart

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights what we believe will become resistance just below the $60 price level and suggests the $55 to $56 price level may be intermediate support.  Thus, we expect the price to rotate a bit lower, possibly into the $54 to $56 level, then stall and rotate further as we transition into the end of September.


Weekly Crude Oil Chart Trend Direction

We don’t expect anything crazy to happen in Oil until later in September or into early October.  Our ADL predictive modeling suggests that Crude Oil will peak in October and begin a broader downside move towards levels just below $50.  Crude Oil may begin this move a bit earlier than our ADL system predicts because of news or some fundamental data related…
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Dow to 38,000 by 2022

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

dow-to-38000-by-2022President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on? 

Of course who knows? But lets continue. 

The fundamentals behind this may be:

  • A good deal with China.
  • The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
  • The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
  • Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).

Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before Oct 1987 stock market crash, as it was proven the US stock market does not act in isolation, and can not escape the world economic environment, hence the quick and sharp stock market correction Oct 19 1987.

In the chart below:

  • Notice how the Dow moves in burst between the green divider channel lines. It like an even pulse of a market move. 
  • The most recent consolidation is a Wyckoff re accumulation cause (well so far) and the effect would carry stocks to 38,000. It is not distribution as one would expect more volatility and we do not have that.
  • 38,000 target is the next green outer channel line.


Dow 1 Wyckoff


Here is the longer term view of the red and green channels.
 

Dow 2 Wyckoff
 

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney…
continue reading





Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to rally and each breaks support at each (1), odds ramp up that stocks are in trouble! These patterns suggest that stock bulls want to see yield move higher here, not lower!

The article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Are Bank Stocks Nearing Reversal of Fortune Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Bank Index BKX has been trading in a downtrend since early 2018.

And it has been underperforming the broad stock market indices as well.

Is the bad news for banks stocks about to end?

Stock market bulls sure hope so, as the stock market tends to be on stronger footing when the banks provide market leadership.

Today’s chart looks at the ratio of bank stocks to the broad market index, the S&P 500.

The Bank Index (BKX) to S&P 500 Index (SPX) price ratio recently hit 7-year channel support and a small rally has followed.

If a breakout at (3) takes place, looks for relative strength from the banks again. This would also be a positive signal for the broader market.

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

What's Hot In Women's Fashion?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Via Global Macro Monitor,

Capitalism at its best or worst?

We have a few questions:

1)  Does the Tariff Man get a royalty for the sale of each dress sold, and will that violate the Emolumen...



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Phil's Favorites

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



more from Lee

The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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