Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work

 

How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work

Unemployed people wait outside a government office in NYC in 1933. AP Photo

By Jay L. Zagorsky, Boston University

CC BY-ND

The U.S. unemployment rate climbed from a half-century low of 3.5% to 4.4% in March – and is expected to go a lot higher.

But could the rate, as some predict, surpass the 25% joblessness the U.S. experienced at the peak of the Great Depression?

As a macroeconomist who has tracked the labor force for decades, I’ve been wondering about this myself.

There are actually two figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to estimate employment levels in the U.S.

One is the unemployment rate, which comes from the Current Population Survey. The U.S. Census Bureau contacts about 60,000 randomly selected households every month to get an estimate of this rate.

The other is an estimate of how many nonfarm jobs were lost or created in the month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics creates these figures by asking more than 140,000 private businesses, nonprofits and various state and local governments how many people were on their payroll at any time during the week containing the 12th of the month.

The latest data show the economy lost 701,000 jobs in March.

But these are just very early estimates of the impact from the coronavirus. It will get a lot worse before it gets better. About 10 million people have applied for employment benefits in the past two weeks alone.

The employment surveys – single-week snapshots – were both taken in mid-March, around the time the U.S. first began to experience a sharp uptick in cases, and some states, such as New York and California, ordered businesses to close. Both surveys likely only reflect the very early effects of the pandemic.

In addition, they consider someone employed even if they worked only part of that week. Starting off the week employed and ending the week laid…
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A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus

 

A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus

A trial of an anti-malaria drug in France found different results from a similar study last month. Liliboas / Getty Images

Courtesy of Katherine Seley-Radtke, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

On Saturday the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of two antimalarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine and a related medication, chloroquine, for emergency use to treat COVID-19. The drugs were touted by President Trump as a “game changer” for COVID-19.

However, a study just published in a French medical journal provides new evidence that hydroxychloroquine does not appear to help the immune system clear the coronavirus from the body. The study comes on the heels of two others – one in France and one in China – that reported some benefits in the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for COVID-19 patients who didn’t have severe symptoms of the virus.

I am a medicinal chemist who has specialized in discovery and development of antiviral drugs for the past 30 years, and I have been actively working on coronaviruses for the past seven. I am among a number of researchers who are concerned that this drug has been given too much of a high priority before there is enough evidence to show it is indeed effective.

There are already other clinical studies that showed it is not effective against COVID-19 as well as several other viruses. And, more importantly, it can have dangerous side effects, as well as giving people false hope. The latter has led to widespread shortages of hydroxychloroquine for patients who need it to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, the indications for which it was originally approved.

The idea that the combination of hydroxychloroquine with an antibiotic drug, azithromycin, was effective against COVID-19 gained more attention after a study published on March 17. This study described a trial of 80 patients carried out by Philippe Gautret in Marseille, France. Although some of their results appeared to be encouraging, it should also be noted that most of their patients only had mild symptoms. Furthermore, 85% of the patients didn’t even have a fever…
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More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term.

 

David Brin is a scientist, transparency/internet security expert, public speaker, consultant, social media influencer and best-selling author. You can find his books on his website, and his latest articles on his blog.

 

More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term.

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog

First off, I want to discuss a couple of generalities. Let’s start with a fellow by name of Hyman Minsky, whose insights into the nature of stability in human systems have been getting a lot of attention. Basically, during times of great stability, many people – taking continuity for granted – pile up ever greater amounts of risk without hedging against a reversal… till reversal happens — a "Minsky Moment" when instability suddenly returns, at which point things shake out amid lots of pain. Perhaps everyone adjusts together, weaning themselves of bad habits and making things work better, with more wisdom. Alternately, things may go as Karl Marx, described, viewing such shakeouts as inevitably both culling the capitalist class and impoverishing workers, leading to revolution. 

Take the example of Japan, which had fine-tuned their economy according to the teachings of American quality and efficiency guru W. Edwards Demming. Taking Demming to an extreme, Toyota led at innovating ultra slim, just-in-time supply chains that squeeze every possible drop of margin from goods and services. Like an athlete who tunes her body to perfectly perform a particular movement, companies following Demming principles aimed for zero on-site storage or stockpiling – equivalent to the athlete’s nonexistent fat reserves. And just like such an athlete, stuck on a life-raft for a week without supplies, Japanese companies learned the “Minsky folly” of their mistake, when an exogenous shock – the Fukushima disaster – shattered supply chains and Japan virtually shut down.

As futurist Jamais Cascio  put it: "The villainization of over-capacity has been a hallmark of the current post-industrial capitalism environment. What we have seen over the past couple of months is the value of slack in a world that’s gone unstable." (Personal correspondence.) Certainly the short-sighted selling off of federal U.S. medical stockpiles, not long ago, is a rabid chicken now coming home to roost. One might wonder if this correlates with the rise of MBAs and decline of engineers in corporate boardrooms.

But…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 04-01-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:49 – Checking on the Markets
00:04:19 – Earnings Portfolio
00:05:46 – STP
00:10:37 – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
00:17:01 – Crude Oil WTI | Butterfly Portfolio
00:25:24 – AAPL
00:22:57 – TSLA
00:26:30 – Earnings Portfolio
00:37:20 – COVID-19 Update
01:17:33 – IMAX
01:22:16 – F
01:24:16 – DOW
01:28:50 – Sugar
01:31:07 – Margin Portfolios
01:51:19 – ET

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





Three reasons it’s not 1929

 

Three reasons it’s not 1929

Courtesy of 

I could be wrong, but let me point out three things that I think about when I hear Great Depression analogies being made to the current crisis.

The first thing I think about is that the financial markets of the 1930’s were prehistoric. Yes, the Federal Reserve was in existence, but it was nowhere near as powerful and it hadn’t had any institutional memory (or history) to draw on. Its basic structure was patterned on the still-nascent central banks of various European countries thanks to the listening tour Senator Nelson Aldrich and others had made across the Continent. Fun fact: the US Senators’ delegation took one of their most critical meetings with German monetary authorities at the Adlon Hotel in Berlin, where Michael Jackson would infamously hang his baby off the balcony for paparazzi almost 100 years later.

Anyway, this time we have an experienced Fed and the Fed knows how powerful it can be. There was a rippling global financial crisis in the midst of the 1990’s bull market and the Fed shut it down in approximately ten seconds. The lessons of Bernanke’s actions during ’07-’09 have taken on a practically Talmudic quality within the institution, from what I’m told. And the Fed has already jumped in with both feet – as Wells Fargo strategist Christopher Harvey put it in Barron’s this weekend, “The Fed took the kitchen sink and threw it at the market. Then it took another kitchen sink and threw it at the market.”

The second thing I would point out is that the cause of the Crash of 1929 is, to this day, still unknown. Yeah, you can chalk it up to valuations and excesses, but that’s a copout. The reality is that there is nothing special that had happened in the days and weeks leading up to the Great Crash, it just sort of got rolling and then kept going – feeding on itself as sentiment turned and the desire to sell infected everyone. But there was no spark. I wrote 


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The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the onset of the second world war took many people by surprise, the outbreak of the coronavirus in December 2019 was a crisis foretold. Infectious disease specialists have been raising the alarm about the accelerated pace of outbreaks for decades. Dengue, Ebola, SARS, H1N1, and Zika are just the tip of the iceberg. Since 1980, more than 12,000 documented outbreaks have infected and killed tens of millions of people around the world, many of them the poorest of the poor. In 2018, the World Health Organisation (WHO) detected outbreaks of six of its eight “priority diseases” for the very first time.

No one can say we weren’t warned.

Even as we attend to the countless emergencies generated by COVID-19, we need to think deeply about why the international community was so unprepared for an outbreak that was so inevitable. This is hardly the first time we’ve faced global catastrophes.

The second world war reflected the catastrophic failure of leaders to learn the lessons of the 1914-1918 war. The creation of the United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions in the late 1940s and early 1950s provided some grounds for optimism, but these were overshadowed by the Cold War. Moreover, the Reagan and Thatcher revolutions of the 1980s rolled back the capacity of governments to address inequality through taxation and redistribution and governments’ ability to deliver health and essential services.

The capacity of international institutions to regulate globalisation was undermined precisely at a time when they were most needed. The 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were a period of rapidly rising cross-border movements of trade, finance and people. The accelerated flow of goods, services and skills is one of the principal reasons for the most rapid reduction of global poverty in history. Since the late 1990s,…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 03-25-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:40 – 5% Rule
00:13:09 – COVID-19 Update
00:22:39 – S&P 500 | GDP Growth
00:30:00 – Market Collapse
00:34:42 – Trading Techniques
00:44:03 – 10 Trade Ideas
01:03:26 – STP
01:04:24 – LTP
01:09:11 – Market Crash
01:10:46 – VIAC
01:19:52 – MU
01:26:11 – AAPL
01:31:04 – PUT Sales | VIX
01:31:47 – STP
01:35:39 AAPL in Butterfly Portfolio
01:39:38 – Butterfly Portfolio
01:40:21 – LTP

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 03-18-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:38 – Checking on the Markets
00:04:42 – S&P 500
00:07:32 – STP
00:12:11 – LTP
00:17:38 – SDS Hedges
00:19:01 – Petroleum Status Report
00:22:17 – Trading Techniques
00:23:18 – Disaster Hedges
00:29:07 – BA
00:30:54 – SKT | FAZ
00:33:21 – COVID-19 Update
00:46:41 – Crashiversary Week in 2011 | SKF
00:55:05 – GE
00:57:56 – HOV
00:58:54 – TOL | KBH
01:06:10 – NASDAQ
01:08:57 – LTP
01:11:27 – HA (Hawaiian Holdings)
01:14:28 – H (Hyatt)
01:15:31 – MAR (Marriott International Inc.)
01:23:07 – More Trading Techniques
01:30:54 – Bonds
01:32:12 – National Debt
01:56:49 – APRN
02:02:06 – TD
02:07:07 – VIX
02:08:31 – LB
02:11:44 – More Trading Techniques

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!

 





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 03-11-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:51 – Market News
00:08:06 – STP
00:11:47 – BA
00:20:40 – XOM
00:28:58 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:36:11 – VIAC
00:42:56 – GOLD
00:43:17 – IBM
00:46:41 – S&P 500
00:49:42 – Payroll Tax Cuts
00:50:30 – SKT
00:55:16 – IMAX
00:59:09 – VLO
01:09:55 – DIS
01:16:20 – COVID-19 & the Pandemic

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
 





Questions Every Investor Needs To Ask Themselves Right Now

 

Questions Every Investor Needs To Ask Themselves Right Now

Courtesy of A Wealth of Common Sense

In the 1960s, sociology professor James Henslin spent time with a group of cab drivers in St. Louis to understand their gambling habits. When the drivers finished their shifts for the night they would play craps into the wee hours of the morning, typically from 3 am to 7 am. Henslin sat in on nearly 20 of the dice games to determine how the drivers’ thoughts and actions dictated how they played.

In his paper Craps and Magic, Henslin writes about how he discovered many of the players were operating under a sense of magic over the dice:

It became evident to me that these players were convinced that they could control the dice, that is, as shown by their behavior (by their statements, gestures, and betting practices), they were not playing solely under the assumption of probability or odds, but, rather, they also moved within the framework of a system of magical beliefs.

The players would routinely throw the dice harder when they wanted a high number and throw it softer when they wanted a low number. This is also why you so often see players blow on the dice before a throw at the casino.

These practices have no bearing on the outcome but they give the gamblers an illusion of control.

When stock market volatility erupts, investors are always in search of their own illusion of control. We crave predictability and control when it comes to our money but the stock market provides neither.

When stocks are rising, investing is often boring, methodical and the opposite of newsworthy. When stocks are falling, investing is often exciting fast, and scary.

Investors often look to find some modicum of control through the answers of gurus. We just want someone to tell us what’s going to happen next so we can either buy or sell to relieve the fear and anxiety.

In all my years of doing this, I’ve never come across a single person…
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Phil's Favorites

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

 

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

SARS-CoV-2 virus particles (pink dots) on a dying cell. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH

Benjamin Neuman, Texas A&M University-Texarkana

COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.

A coronavirus infection usually plays o...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

 

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

SARS-CoV-2 virus particles (pink dots) on a dying cell. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH

Benjamin Neuman, Texas A&M University-Texarkana

COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.

A coronavirus infection usually plays o...



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Zero Hedge

Mysterious Colorado Doomsday Shelter For When "Law & Order Breaks Down" Sees Spike In Interest

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the pandemic unfolds across the US, city dwellers are getting the hell out of dodge and escaping to rural areas. We noted this last week, with many leaving large metro areas in California, fleeing for the mountains and rural communities to limit their probabilities of ...



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ValueWalk

Junior gold stocks offer a place of refuge in a falling market

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Junior gold stocks have taken a beating alongside other stocks, but history suggests this could be the time to dive in. The Vaneck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is down from where it was in February, although it’s starting to show signs that it could revive soon.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Crescat likes junior gold stocks

In their March update to investors, Crescat Capital said junior gold stocks retested the lows of a nine-year bear market. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Depression Coming or Is the Bottom Already In? Joe Friday Says Your Answer Lies Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we headed towards a Depression or is the worst already behind us? In today’s world, comparisons to the great depression are easy to find.

Are the Depression concerns well founded or are the declines of late already pricing in a bottom?

In my humble opinion, this chart and the upcoming price action of this index will go miles and miles towards telling us if we are headed towards very tough times or if the huge declines of late are actually in a bottoming process.

This chart looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index on a monthly basis over the past 54 years. The index has been heading south, reflecting weakness in demand for basi...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.