The failing political strategies
by ilene - November 2nd, 2018 8:50 pm
Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. You can also find his books and short stories at his website. ~ Ilene
The failing political strategies
Courtesy of David Brin
The New York Times offers a detailed update of the Russian Election Interference Thing. And yes, our "deep state" public servants who won us the Cold War are trying to stymie many of the very same Kremlin masterminds from flipping their defeat back into victory over the West.
Step one, getting the American right to dismiss our defenders as a "deep state." Study, learn. Be angry that our enemies have taken Washington, which no other hostile power ever accomplished before.
Staring at a tree — ignoring a burning forest
Alert to you economics/trade nerds! One of my RASR (Residually Adult-Sane Republican) friends – investment guru John Mauldin – recently cited this short explanation of the Trade War threat by currency expert Taggart Murphy:
“‘Trump is doing everything he can to bring on the end of the days when the US can borrow whatever it wants in whatever amounts it wants. To be sure, there is no recipe book. The dollar is now so entrenched as the world’s money that if your assignment were to bring the curtain down on that—and thus the ability of the US to borrow whatever it wants whenever it wants—it’s not at all clear what you would do.“‘But you’d start by doing everything that Trump is doing—pick fights with all your allies, blow the government deficit wide open at the peak of an economic recovery, abandon any notion of fiscal responsibility, threaten sanctions on anyone and everyone who seeks to honor the deal Obama struck with Iran (thereby almost begging everyone to figure out some way to bypass the US banking system in order to do business), [Which they are openly doing, comments JFM] throw spanners into
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Phil’s Stock World’s Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-31-18
by clarisezoleta - November 1st, 2018 6:56 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:01:56 – Checking on the Markets
00:08:16 – Regular Trading Performance
00:15:51 – Nasdaq & NYNC
00:17:42 – Knowing How Charts Are Drawn
00:22:09 – Boeing
00:29:47 – Trading Ideas
00:30:37 – Petroleum Status Report
00:40:27 – Options Check
00:49:32 – MDR
00:57:52 – IBM
01:02:22 – RHT
01:04:21 – Watson Jeopardy
01:15:00 – More Trading Ideas
01:21:30 – Market Techniques
01:32:02 – Futures
01:47:42 – Cannabis Expo Vegas
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
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Phil’s Stock World’s Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-24-18
by clarisezoleta - October 25th, 2018 5:38 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:04:51 – Futures Chart | Checking the Markets
00:11:47 – Trade Ideas
00:21:53 – Bounce Lines
00:26:22 – SQQQ
00:29:42 – Become A PSW Member
00:31:00 – Short Puts
00:41:12 – Money Talk Portfolio Review
01:10:00 – NYCB
01:10:30 – GE
01:15:57 – Petroleum Status Report & SPR
01:18:00 – More Trade Ideas
01:19:54 – FED
01:23:41 – Checking on the Markets
01:36:49 – NASDAQ
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – October 24, 2018
by Greg - October 24th, 2018 9:26 am
Speaking of trading, I am scheduled to be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7:30 which means it's time to adjust our Money Talk Portfolio. We did a review last Thursday and the Portfolio was at $97,037 with the S&P at 2,802 and, as of yesterday's close, we had dropped $1,394 to $95,645 but that's still up $45,645 (91.3%) for the year so not terrible but it lets us know we need to do a bit more to lock in the gains (ie. more hedges).
- ALK – A short put we are confident in, should gain another $3,275 at maturity.
- SQQQ – A good hedge that's $6,760 in the money but only showing net $3,450 out of a $10,000 potential. Hopefully we lose the $3,450 because the market does well as it's simply insurance and not a bet.
- ABX – A long-term bet on gold that pays up to $12,500 and is currently on track at net $2,225 so good for a new trade with another $10,275 (460%) left to gain at $15.
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And now…a reality check
by ilene - October 23rd, 2018 5:09 pm
And now…a reality check
Courtesy of Josh Brown
With a little more than two weeks before the midterm elections, the President of the United States is spouting utter nonsense every time there’s a camera on him. Even if you love Trump and are only a little bit interested in whether or not something is a lie or the truth, you have to admit (if only to yourself) that the lies about the economy have become enormous and completely untethered from reality.
He said there will be a new middle class tax cut of 10% before the election. Congress is in recess, so of course there will not be any such thing.
He claimed that Saudi weapons purchases were worth 450,000 jobs, then the next day he said 500,000 jobs. A week later he said 600,000 jobs and then this weekend, at the lectern of one of his rallies, the number went up to one million jobs. He could say six trillion jobs, all of these numbers are made up and it would have the same exact effect (none). Don’t take my word for it, here are the collected statements:
[Read "Trump’s claim of jobs from Saudi deals grows by leaps and bounds" for real numbers.]
By the way, the Saudis have already invested so much money in these US based weapons systems that we are literally the only game in town for them. It’s not like switching from Coke to Pepsi. The real concern about our relationship with Saudi Arabia must be based on something else. I wonder what that could be…
He also mentioned, out of the blue, that US Steel is going to open six new plants. Maybe six is his lucky number because US Steel is going to open zero plants. None. Not six. Not three. Not one.
The constant lying has been a boon to the President, during his campaign and pretty much throughout his entire life. Supporters of his policies see it as a means to an end, so they’re certainly not going to turn on him. He promised to run the country for the…
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Weekend Reading: Tax Cuts Saved The Economy?
by Zero Hedge - October 19th, 2018 4:25 pm
Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
IBD recently penned an article touting the success of the recent tax cuts from the Trump administration.
“The Treasury Department reported this week that individual income tax collections for FY 2018 totaled $1.7 trillion. That’s up $14 billion from fiscal 2017, and an all-time high. And that’s despite the fact that individual income tax rates got a significant cut this year as part of President Donald Trump’s tax reform plan.”
Hold on a second.
A $14 billion increase on $1.68 Trillion in receipts is a very paltry 0.8% increase. This is the 8th LOWEST rate of increase in the history of data and is more representative of population growth rather than the success of tax cuts bringing in more revenue.
In fact, when looking at Federal Receipts on an annualized basis, growth in receipts as of the end of Q2 has fallen by more than 4% annually. Importantly, throughout history, negative growth rates in Federal receipts have been associated with recessionary periods in the economy rather than expansions.
But IBD in their effort to support the Trump tax cuts continues:
“Critics of the Trump tax cuts said they would blow a hole in the deficit. Yet individual income taxes climbed 6% in the just-ended fiscal year 2018, as the economy grew faster and created more jobs than expected.”
Well first, as we have shown previously, the tax cuts DID INDEED blow a hole in the deficit. Currently, the deficit is rapidly approaching $1 Trillion and will exceed that level in 2019.
To IBD’s point, the economy has grown faster than expected and jobs have increased (but not more than expected.)
“Yes, the economy was booming in fiscal 2018. But it probably wouldn’t have been booming without the tax cuts.“
Actually, no.
It wasn’t Trump’s tax cuts that led to this growth but, as we discussed recently with Danielle Dimartino-Booth, it came from a “sugar-high” created by 3-massive Hurricanes in 2017 which have required billions in monetary stimulus, created jobs in manufacturing and construction, and led to an economic lift. We saw the same following the Hurricanes in 2012 as well.…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-17-18
by clarisezoleta - October 18th, 2018 5:49 pm
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For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:01:15 – F
00:20:22 – LTP & F
00:35:41 – BJO & Coffee
00:43:20 – OOP
00:53:30 – Trade Ideas
01:06:22 – Current News
01:08:23 – CZR
01:11:23 – More Trade Ideas & Techniques
01:32:51- IBM
01:41:09 – Top Trades
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
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The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-10-18
by clarisezoleta - October 11th, 2018 6:27 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:01:46 – Checking the Markets
00:03:57 – 5 Minute Chart
00:15:08 – Gold
00:16:28 – Gasoline & Oil Trade Ideas
00:22:31 – OOP
00:23:19 – Butterfly Portfolio
00:24:32 – Self Hedging Portfolios
00:24:40 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:24:57 – LTP & STP
00:48:40 – BJO
00:50:01 – CDE
00:50:48 – F
00:51:20 – GE
00:52:09 – IMAX
00:57:43 – MT
00:58:38 – PZZA
01:05:29 – More Trade Ideas & Techniques
01:12:34 – S&P 500 (Accelerating & Decelarating Moves)
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
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Weekend Reading: Are Dividends Telling Us Something?
by Zero Hedge - October 5th, 2018 4:37 pm
Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com
Earlier this week, Eddy Elfenbein has an interesting post discussing the “Bull Market In Dividends.”
“For the third quarter, dividends from the S&P 500 grew by 10.96%. That’s the strongest growth rate in more than three years. It’s the 34th quarter in a row of dividend growth.
Over the last eight years, dividends are up 234%, which is pretty close to what the S&P 500 price index has done.
Considering how simple it is, the S&P 500 has tracked a 2% dividend yield fairly closely for the last several years.”
It is an interesting point particularly when you consider that there are a lot of dividends which have been “financed”through “cheap debt.” There is also the issue of record debt issuance by companies with marginal balance sheets at best or are walking “zombies” at worst.
As John Coumarionos noted earlier this week.
“Low interest rates have allowed companies that would have otherwise gone out of business to stay alive, and this has caused a tepid recovery. Chancellor notes the cumulative default rate on junk bonds during the entire recession was 17%, or “around half the level of the two previous downturns.” And while central bankers might view this as a victory, he views it as the cause of economic weakness.
The lessons for investors are to remain vigilant about stock valuations and higher yielding bonds. At some point, the zombies will not be able to sustain themselves any longer.”
This is an interesting point when you begin to think about the long-term history of dividends and what they represent with respect to long-term market cycles.
Let’s start with the notion that “dividends always increase.”
First, the statement is incorrect because during market reversion “cash dividends” DO NOT increase – but the YIELD does because of the collapse in prices.
But, more to the point, that notion is only true, until it isn’t.
During the 2008 financial crisis, more than 140 companies decreased or eliminated their dividends to shareholders. Yes, many of those companies were major banks, however, leading up to the financial crisis there were many individuals holding large allocations to banks for the income stream their dividends generated. In hindsight, that was…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-03-18
by clarisezoleta - October 4th, 2018 12:36 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics
00:01:26 Active Trader
00:03:21 Petroleum Status Report
00:20:26 Active Trader – Oil and Gas
00:24:32 TZA
00:26:36 Checking on the Markets
00:29:17 Trade Ideas
00:32:45 Petroleum Status Report
00:37:31 TLT
00:42:56 NYCB
00:54:36 September Portfolio Review
00:58:07 BBBY
01:05:22 CMG
01:29:19 AAPL
01:33:16 Active Trader
01:39:45 HMNY
01:42:14 More Trade Ideas
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site