The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 07-18-18
by clarisezoleta - July 19th, 2018 2:37 pm
The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 07-18-18
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here
Major Topics:
00:04:02 – Checking on the Markets
00:05:27 – Moneytalk Portfolio Review
00:12:15 – Top Trades
00:20:38 – Crude Oil
00:24:45 – Coffee
00:26:10 – Gold & Silver
00:29:05 – RDFN
00:33:57 – OIH
00:46:00 – Trade Ideas
00:50:56 – Beige Book
01:17:46 – Aging US Population
01:26:00 – Midyear Trade Review
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
 Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
 del.icio.us
|
|
Think carefully before buying Bitcoin – and don’t buy the ‘safe haven’ claims
by ilene - July 16th, 2018 1:50 pm
Picture via Pixabay
Think carefully before buying Bitcoin – and don't buy the 'safe haven' claims
Courtesy of Lee Smales, University of Western Australia
The sharp rise and subsequent fall in Bitcoin’s value places it among the greatest market bubbles in history. It has outpaced the 17th-century tulip mania, the South Sea bubble of 1720, and the more recent Japanese asset price and dot-com bubbles.
The rapid price rise garnered attention from an increasing number of academics and investment advisers. Some have suggested that Bitcoin improves portfolio performance and can even be used as a potential “safe haven” asset in place of gold.
Our work finds that much of this research is flawed and overlooks some important attributes that any investor should consider before allocating funds to such a speculative investment.
This is particularly relevant if investing in Bitcoin is rationalised as a prospective safe haven in times of market turmoil.
Hard to value
The first attribute investors consider is how to value Bitcoin. Typically, assets are valued based on the cash flows they produce. Bitcoin lacks this property.
This leads to ongoing debate as to the true value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Some, such as the Winklevoss twins and other Bitcoin entrepreneurs, believe the price will soar far higher. Others, including Nobel prize winner Eugene Fama and esteemed investor Warren Buffett, believe the real value is closer to zero. Another Nobel winner, Robert Shiller, suggests the correct answer is “ambiguous”.
There is even wide variation in price across the various Bitcoin exchanges. This is common in fragmented markets and makes it difficult for an investor to find the best market price at any point in time – a process called price discovery.
High price volatility
Bitcoin prices also have a high level of variation (volatility) when compared to other possible investments including bonds, stocks and gold. Even tech stocks such as Twitter, which are considered relatively volatile, are found to…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 07-11-18
by clarisezoleta - July 12th, 2018 12:18 pm
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 07-11-18
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here
Major Topics:
00:01:16 Indexes
00:04:53 HMNY
00:15:06 NFLX
00:18:47 SCO
00:27:29 Silver
00:29:32 Copper
00:33:12 Oil
00:42:28 JJOFF
00:45:08 Top Trade Review
01:16:28 GE
01:24:31 Checking on the Markets
01:27:19 HMNY
01:32:14 More Trade Ideas
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
US-China trade: China is building bridges with the world while the US puts up walls
by ilene - July 11th, 2018 1:42 am
US-China trade: China is building bridges with the world while the US puts up walls
Courtesy of Yuka Kobayashi, SOAS, University of London
China first built its famous Great Wall in the Qin dynasty during the third century BC. Never has there been a greater symbol of protectionism. But today China is outward facing to protect its national interests. It is building bridges, as well as railways, roads and infrastructure, and embedding itself at the heart of the global trade system.
The unfolding trade dispute between the US and China follows a scramble for influence by both countries to set the rules, regulations and standards for trade and investment. The crux of the US-China trade dispute lies in the declining power of the US, which is reacting to the fact that China has been catching up and closing the gap with it over the past decade.
The Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on China under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and China’s retaliatory measures is merely the tip of the iceberg. The US-China conflict over trade is played out in various arenas as both sides battle for global influence.
Writing the trade rules
The international trade system, now governed by the World Trade Organisation (WTO), has been built on the principles of free trade. Unilateral measures, where one country targets another, run counter to these principles. The WTO has its own judicial system (the Dispute Settlement Mechanism) to mediate trade disputes: unilateral measures tend to be used as a last resort when other enforcement mechanisms in the WTO are not effective.
While the US was one of the founding members of the WTO, China joined only in 2001, after 15 years of negotiations. At the time, China had a manufacturing-based economy and was heavily reliant on trade in goods. It was neither strong in trade in services nor in the high tech sector.
But things have changed significantly, with China moving on from its transitional period in the WTO to become a fully-fledged member in 2011. The Chinese economy has moved up the economic chain, to become an economy more balanced…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 06-20-18
by clarisezoleta - June 21st, 2018 3:33 pm
The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 06-20-18
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here
Major Topics:
00:01:44 – Market Highlights
00:06:14 – OPEC | Oil
00:12:05 – Trade Ideas
00:16:04 – NYC
00:21:56 – AT&T
00:25:15 – Disney
00:27:27 – Selling PUTS
00:30:00 – Selling Bonds
00:33:35 – June Portfolio Review
00:35:00 – More Trade Ideas
00:47:52 – GIS
00:51:08 – Long TermPortfolio
00:52:30 – Selling Premium & other trade tips
01:05:46 – Gold
01:15:08 – Trade & Tariffs
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 06-13-18
by clarisezoleta - June 14th, 2018 1:03 pm
The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 06-13-18
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here
Major Topics:
00:01:25 Checking on the Markets
00:04:55 Petroleum Status Report
00:11:30 USD
00:12:48 Indexes
00:15:13 Bonds
00:20:30 Oil
00:23:50 Active Trader
00:38:26 HRB
00:42:31 SVU
00:45:30 Long Term Portfolio
00:47:33 LB
00:51:31 Strategy Section
01:04:21 Active Trader
01:07:38 FOMC Statement
01:12:56 LB Trade Ideas
01:28:44 Active Trader
01:33:18 Long Term Portfolio
01:44:23 Trade Ideas
01:48:18 OOP Review
01:50:40 MDR
01:53:38 More of the OOP Review
02:10:22 More Trade Ideas
02:14:01 Metals Charts
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Rules-based trade made the world rich. Trump’s policies may make it poorer
by ilene - June 10th, 2018 1:14 pm
Rules-based trade made the world rich. Trump's policies may make it poorer
Trump against the world? Jesco Denzel/German Federal Government via AP
Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology
Nations sell goods and services to each other because this exchange is generally mutually beneficial.
It’s easy to understand that Iceland should not be growing its own oranges, given its climate. Instead, Iceland should buy oranges from Spain, which can grow them more cheaply, and sell Spaniards fish, which are abundant in its waters.
That’s why the explosion in free trade since the first bilateral deal was penned between Britain and France in the mid-1800s has generated unprecedented wealth and prosperity for the vast majority of the world’s population. Hundreds of trade agreements later, the U.S. and several other countries established an international rules-based trading system after World War II.
But now the U.S., which has played an integral role in bolstering this system, is actively trying to subvert it. At the recent G-7 summit in Quebec, for example, the Trump administration objected to even referring to a “rules-based international order” in the official communique – and the president ultimately refused to sign it.
My research in international economics tells me that trade policy – because it is inherently forward-looking and global – requires three interrelated attributes to be successful: It needs to reduce uncertainty, ease long-term decision-making, and be legal and credible.
President Donald Trump’s recent trade policy fails all three tests.
Birth of modern free trade
Britain and France signed the first post-Industrial Revolution trade agreement, dubbed the Cobden-Chevalier treaty, on Jan. 23, 1860.
In it, both countries agreed to either reduce or eliminate import barriers and grant the other most favored nation status, which means any trade concessions offered to another nation would automatically apply to them as well.
Within just 15 years, various countries inked 56 more bilateral treaties. Thus began the first wave of globalization, which lasted from 1870 until 1914, the beginning of two destructive world wars.
From those ruins emerged a rules-based international…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The Next Fifty Years
by ilene - June 6th, 2018 2:05 am
The Next Fifty Years
Courtesy of Michael Batnick
Fifty years ago today, the S&P 500 closed above 100 for the first time ever. The New York Times ran the following headline on the cover of the business section.
The funny thing about going through old news papers is how some things never change. This sentence could be in tomorrow’s paper: “Yesterday’s upswing, they said, seemed to represent an attempt by the large and small investors to acquire positions in the market ‘before it ran away from them.'”
The last sentence of the story is something we see all the time: “International Business Machines, which climbed 18 points on Monday eased 51/4 to 3693/4 on profit taking.”
1968 was one of the most eventful years in our nation’s history. Between the Civil Rights Movement, Vietnam, and the assassinations of MLK and RFK, nobody could have guessed how kind the next fifty years would be to investors. From June 1968 to today, the S&P 500, with dividends, gained over 11,000%, or 10% a year.
Nobody also could have known how brutal the next years 14 would be. On August 12, 1982, the S&P 500 closed at 102.42. That’s 5,182 days without any increase in the price index. Assuming you held onto an index mutual fund that didn’t exist, and reinvested your dividends despite suffering a 36%, 48%, and 27% drawdown, with spiking inflation, you would have received a 96% total return.
It’s impossible to predict the returns side of the ledger, but you can guarantee that risk will always be there. Since 1968, the S&P 500 (daily closing prices) has experienced 14 separate 10% declines, with 6 turning into a bear market, as shown in the table below.
I know predictions are silly, but XIV to my head, here’s what I got for the next 50 years.
- 50% chance of annual index returns greater than 5%.
- 75% chance of a 50% decline
- 95% chance of a 30% decline
- 100% chance that every 10% decline feels like it’s going to be a 40% decline.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 05-30-18
by clarisezoleta - May 31st, 2018 1:44 pm
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 05-30-18
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here
Major Topics:
00:01:35 – Airline Satisfaction
00:10:40 – Checking on the Markets
00:13:40 – Natural Gas
00:17:53 – RTY
00:19:54 – SPY
00:23:45 – Trade Ideas
00:25:00 – Market News
00:29:00 – DXD | TZA | Hedges
00:40:37 – Short Term Portfolio
00:45:09 – Insurance
00:48:19 – May Portfolio Review
00:59:10 – Beige Book
01:13:04 – SMTH
01:16:05 – More Market News
01:24:00 – AMZN
01:37:36 – HMNY
01:40:00 – Movie Pass
01:47:50 – MAK
01:52:16 – ABX
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Hoping for a bullish stock market? Cheer for the Washington Capitals
by ilene - May 28th, 2018 1:01 pm
Hoping for a bullish stock market? Cheer for the Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals left wing Jakub Vrana jumps into the arms of Alex Ovechkin (8) after scoring the go-ahead goal during Game 5 in the second round of the NHL Stanley Cup hockey playoffs. Cheer for the Caps this Stanley Cup final if you’re hoping the stock market performs well. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Courtesy of Ernest Biktimirov, Brock University
Although no Canadian teams made it to the Stanley Cup finals this year, Canadians may still have an extra reason to tune in and watch closely on Monday night — and to cheer for the Washington Capitals.
Originally mentioned in the Canadian edition of the Essentials of Corporate Finance textbook in 2007, the Canadian stock market tends to perform much better in the year when an Eastern conference team lifts Lord Stanley’s Cup.
Specifically, starting from the 1993-1994 NHL season (when the names of conferences were changed to Eastern and Western to reflect their geographic locations), the S&P/TSX composite index gained on average 11 per cent if an Eastern conference team won the Stanley Cup. In contrast, the Canadian stock market produced less than a quarter of that, 2.6 per cent to be exact, in the year when a Western conference team was victorious.
Pittsburg Penguins captain Sidney Crosby parades the Stanley Cup in Halifax in August 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan
And in 10 times when an Eastern team won the Stanley Cup, the S&P/TSX composite index finished in the red for the year only twice.
Although not as distinct —hockey is still largely a Canadian game, after all — a similar relation seems to exist south of the border as well.
The Dow Jones industrial average index increased on average by 13.7 per cent in the year when an Eastern conference team won, but produced only half of that when the Western conference prevailed.
Super Bowl predictor
The Stanley Cup is not alone in its apparent predictive powers. The famous Super Bowl predictor suggests that…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site
