The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 02-12-2020
by clarisezoleta - February 13th, 2020 5:05 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
00:02:11 – Checking on the Market
00:04:54 – National Debt & China Debt
00:27:30 – What's happening in China now
00:33:29 – Tradig Tecniques
00:35:37 – Investing in Leverage
00:44:26 – IMAX
00:47:44 -HRB
00:47:58 – TOL
00:48:27 – TD
00:48:47 – M
00:49:08 – Chipotle
00:49:21 – VALE
00:49:35 – US Steel
00:49:40 – LB
00:49:59 – TAP
00:50:18 – MJ
00:50:27 – CHL
00:50:39 – MO
00:51:11 – MLY
00:51:15 – Dividend Portfolio Trades
00:51:27 -IBRT
00:51:42 – SPWR
00:51:50 – GOLD
00:52:31 – LABU
00:53:59 – TXN
00:54:16 – MDR
00:54:23 – SUGAR | OIL
01:00:07 – FUTURES CHART
01:02:52 – JO
01:12:23 – AAPL
01:13:47 – TCNNF
01:14:55 – UBER
01:22:33 – IBM
01:25:30 – DISNEY
01:39:25 – HBI
01:40:04 – LTP
01:42:18 – MAC
01:44:35 – Money Talk Portfolio
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
 Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
 del.icio.us
|
|
Real pay data show Trump’s ‘blue collar boom’ is more of a bust for US workers, in 3 charts
by ilene - February 10th, 2020 6:51 pm
Real pay data show Trump's 'blue collar boom' is more of a bust for US workers, in 3 charts
When looking at your paycheck, don’t forget about inflation. Leif Skoogfors/Getty Images
Courtesy of David Salkever, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
If you thought workers’ hourly pay was finally rising, think again.
At first glance, the latest data – which came out on Feb. 7 – look pretty good. They show nominal hourly earnings rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier.
But the operative word here is nominal, which means not adjusted for changes in the cost of living. Once you factor in inflation, the picture changes drastically. And far from representing a “blue collar boom” – as the president put it in his State of the Union address – the real, inflation-adjusted data show most U.S. workers have not benefited from the growing economy.
As an economist who studies wage data, I think it’s paramount that we take a step back and look at what the data really show.
The effect of inflation and fringes
The Bureau of Labor Statistics comes out with two sets of data on wages.
Business journalists and financial markets tend to focus on the monthly data. These figures are only reported in nominal or current terms because the inflation data doesn’t come out until later.
A more complete set of wage and pay data is reported quarterly. The latest release came out in December for the third quarter. These figures are not only adjusted for inflation but also include fringe benefits, which account for just under a third of total compensation.
At first blush, it makes sense to focus primarily on the first set. Newer data is, well, newer, and market participants and companies prefer the latest information when making decisions about investments, hiring and so on.
But the effect of inflation means that the same US$1 bill buys less stuff over time as prices increase.
From December 2016 to September 2019, nominal wages rose 6.79% from $22.83 to $24.38. But after factoring in inflation, average wages barely budged, climbing just 0.42% in…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
We Are Different. And Different is Difficult.
by ilene - February 2nd, 2020 8:06 pm
Best-selling author and scientist David Brin shares another excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog, Contrary Brin, and an excerpt from chapter 5, The War on All Fact People, right here.
WE ARE DIFFERENT. AND DIFFERENT IS DIFFICULT
Excerpted from David Brin's book, in chapter 10, Polemical Judo: Memes for our Political Knife-fight (pp. 159-161). Kindle Edition.
.png)
I’ve asserted that the Rooseveltian reforms might have been too successful. Historians credit them with saving western capitalism by vesting the working class with a large stake. Indeed, they were so successful that the very idea of class war – rampant across almost every other nation and time – seems not even to occur to American boomers. [230] But as boomers age-out, is that grand time of naïve delusion over?
Forbes in 2016 announced that just 62 ultra-rich individuals have as much wealth as the bottom half of humanity.[231] Five years before, it took 388 rich guys to achieve that status.[232] Which raises a question I’ll repeat ad nauseam throughout this book. Where the heck does this rising, proto-feudal oligarchy think it will all lead?
To a restoration of humanity’s normal, aristocratic pyramid of power, with them on top? Or to radicalization, as a billion members of the hard-pressed but highly skilled and tech-empowered middle class rediscover class struggle, alongside five billion angry workers? (I portray both possibilities in a near-future novel, Existence.) The last time this happened, in the 1930s, lordly owner castes in Germany, Japan, Britain and the U.S. used their mass media ownership to stir populist rightwing movements, hoping to suppress activity on the left while allowing business as usual. Not one of these efforts succeeded. In Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan, their pet monsters rose up and took over, leading to immense pain for all and eventual loss of most of that oligarchic wealth.
In Britain and the U.S. 1930s reactionary fomenters dragged us all-too-near the same path… till moderate reformers…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Humans are hardwired to dismiss facts that don’t fit their worldview
by ilene - February 2nd, 2020 5:53 am
Could the tendency for biases to lead to fact denial as described here for beliefs about subjects such as climate change, vaccines, GMOs and Donald Trump could be applied to investing decisions as well? Think about our reluctance to give up on a failing company or lock in a big loss…
Humans are hardwired to dismiss facts that don't fit their worldview
What’s behind this natural tendency? Zhou Eka/Shutterstock.com
Courtesy of Adrian Bardon, Wake Forest University
Something is rotten in the state of American political life. The U.S. (among other nations) is increasingly characterized by highly polarized, informationally insulated ideological communities occupying their own factual universes.
Within the conservative political blogosphere, global warming is either a hoax or so uncertain as to be unworthy of response. Within other geographic or online communities, vaccines, fluoridated water and genetically modified foods are known to be dangerous. Right-wing media outlets paint a detailed picture of how Donald Trump is the victim of a fabricated conspiracy.
None of that is correct, though. The reality of human-caused global warming is settled science. The alleged link between vaccines and autism has been debunked as conclusively as anything in the history of epidemiology. It’s easy to find authoritative refutations of Donald Trump’s self-exculpatory claims regarding Ukraine and many other issues.
Yet many well-educated people sincerely deny evidence-based conclusions on these matters.
In theory, resolving factual disputes should be relatively easy: Just present evidence of a strong expert consensus. This approach succeeds most of the time, when the issue is, say, the atomic weight of hydrogen.
But things don’t work that way when the scientific consensus presents a picture that threatens someone’s ideological worldview. In practice, it turns out that one’s political, religious or ethnic identity quite effectively predicts one’s willingness to accept expertise on any given politicized issue.
“Motivated reasoning” is what social scientists call the process of deciding what evidence to accept based on the conclusion one prefers. As I explain in my book, “The Truth About Denial,” this very human tendency applies to all kinds of facts about the physical…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-29-2020
by clarisezoleta - January 30th, 2020 5:10 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:02:28 – Checking on the Market
00:04:37 – Petroleum Status Report
00:09:46 – ARAMCO Refinery Attack
00:13:57 – The Market and NCov
00:22:27 – USO
00:26:57 – Nasdaq 100 | DJIA | Shorting Techniques
00:36:52 – Natural Gas
00:37:38 – Coffee
00:41:00 – Silver | Copper | Palladium | Gold
00:41:53 – Wheat | Soybeans |
00:42:51 – Portfolio Review: Overview
00:44:24 – Portfolio Review: STP
00:46:34 – Portfolio Review: LTP | Current STP renamed to LTP
00:48:39 – New STP
00:52:44 – Butterfly Portfolio
01:00:34 – Trade Exchange & Restarting OOP
01:06:18 – Cont. Butterfly Portfolio
01:14:08 – Dividend Portfolio
01:21:00 – FOMC
01:27:34 – Earnings Portfolio
01:29:32 – Hemp Boca Portfolio
01:30:09 – Money Talk Portfolio
01:31:51 – Current News
01:32:58 – Dividend Portfolio
01:37:12 – TXT
01:49:13 – Atlanta FED
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-22-2020
by clarisezoleta - January 23rd, 2020 3:04 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:02:27 – Recap of last week's Trade Deal
00:03:10 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:03:59 – IMAX
00:27:28 – TOT
00:39:40 – Trade Techniques
00:40:45 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:41:37 – Butterfly Portfolio
00:42:37 – GOLD
00:44:46 – Dividend Portfolio
00:56:30 – Futures | More trading techniques
01:01:37 – TSLA
01:10:18 – FCEL
01:18:23 – AAPL | 5G
01:43:03-JP Morgan Profitable Trading Days
01:44:47 – More trading techniques
01:51:28 – Natural Gas
01:52:00 – Earnings Portfolio
01:52:05 – Hemp Boca Portfolio
01:52:10 – STP
01:57:29 – NLY
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The War on All Fact People
by ilene - January 20th, 2020 5:55 am
Best-selling author and scientist David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book, Polemical Judo, on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can read the first, second and final chapters on David's blog, Contrary Brin, and an excerpt from chapter 10, We are Different, Different is Difficult, here.
The War on All Fact People
Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes for our Political Knife-fight (pp. 56-62). Kindle Edition.
I may be ostracized for saying it, but the core targets of the Fox/Putin-led oligarchic putsch aren’t racism or sexism or nativism.[80]
Oh, the foremost victims – those most deeply hurt – are minorities, women, immigrants, non-binaries, the disempowered, millions of children and vulnerable others! To varying degrees, they are the ones suffering pain and gross injustice. And sure, bigotry’s dog-whistles have incited America’s worst elements into violent rage. In The New York Times, Charles Blow summarizes: they support Trump because he is mean to the people they like to be mean to.[81]
“Trump’s own punitive spirit aligns with and gives voice and muscle to American conservatives’ long simmering punitive lust. And this insatiable desire to inflict pain has particular targets: women (specifically feminists), racial minorities, people who are L.G.B.T.Q. and religious minorities in this country. In short, the punishments are directed at anyone who isn’t part of, or supportive of, the white supremacist patriarchy.”
Still, turn your gaze upward from pathetic Nazis and jibbering supremacists, to their masters and hypnotizing controllers. Ponder what those masters need. To them, bigotry is incidental – a leverage tool. Their bid for total power is not blocked by the powerless. But it might truly be thwarted by other, competing “elites.” Consider the bleak prospects for enlightened civilization across this current battlefield. With our elections cheat-stolen, our courts stuff-stacked with shills, millions incited into populist madness, and wealth disparities skyrocketing, just one force stands in feudalism’s way. The new lords must neutralize the counter-effectiveness of our fact-professions.[82]
- Scientists.[83]
…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?
by ilene - January 17th, 2020 10:05 pm
Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?
Courtesy of Michael Batnick
Josh and I spoke recently about the slow grind higher, the lack of volatility, and all the recent stock market records. The very first response in the comment section was, “market overdue for a pullback.”
This seems to be the prevailing narrative and I gotta be honest, I agree. I’m just as surprised as anyone that the market keeps grinding higher.
Here are a few data points, by way of the S&P 500.
- The index has closed within 2% of the all-time high for 68 straight days
- The index has gone 70 days without a 1% decline, the sixth longest streak over the last 20 years.
- 87% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average
- The S&P 500 is currently 11% above its 200-day moving average.
Rather than relying on our collective intuition that we’re due for a pullback, I wanted to look at what the data said. For this analysis, as a measurement of stocks being over extended, we looked at the S&P 500 when it was 10% above its 200-day moving average.
Before we go any further, there is nothing particularly special about the 200-day. We (Nick) also looked at the 50 and 100-day and they all told the same story. The chart below shows when the S&P 500 has been more than 10% above its 200-day moving average.
You’ll notice a few things right off the bat. This sort of thing, when stocks are extended, tends to happen at all-time highs and in deep drawdowns. The latter might be counter intuitive but think about huge bounces off the lows, like the GFC for example. By September 2009, the S&P 500 was 20% above its 200-day moving average even as it was sat 32% below all-time highs.
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 is at least 10% above its 200-day moving average, 59% of the time it was within 2% of its all-time high, and 13% of the time it was in a greater than 20% drawdown.
You can…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-15-2020
by clarisezoleta - January 16th, 2020 3:03 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:01:54 – Checking on the Market
00:03:22 – Petroleum Status Report
00:10:40 – Trading Techniques
00:13:18 – XLE | OIH
00:15:11 – Butterfly Portfolio Review
00:28:34 – AAPL | Yahoo Finance
00:45:59 – IMAX
00:55:01 – More Trading Techniques
00:57:21 – GM | F | HMC | TM | NSANY | DDAIF
00:58:33 – TSLA
01:04:35 – More Trading Techniques
01:05:17 – TM
01:10:40 – Northern Dynasty
01:19:59 – FED Beige Book
01:28:32 – AAPL Premiums
01:34:44 – Portfolio Reviews
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-09-2020
by clarisezoleta - January 9th, 2020 4:04 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:02:02 – Checking on the Markets
00:11:20 – Petroleum Status Report | Futures | Crude Oil
00:39:00 – CAFE Standards Europe
00:48:03 – Indexes | Trading Tenchiniques
00:57:26 – Earnings Portfolio
00:59:26 – Butterfly Portfolio
01:11:10 – Dividend Portfolio
01:13:49 – Hemp Boca Portfolio
01:14:29 – THC
01:14:48 – WBA
01:15:57 – Money Talk Portfolio
01:16:26 – STP
01:30:24 – SKT
01:33:38 – Top Trades
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.