Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 02-12-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 
Major Topics:

00:02:11 – Checking on the Market
00:04:54 – National Debt & China Debt
00:27:30 – What's happening in China now
00:33:29 – Tradig Tecniques
00:35:37 – Investing in Leverage
00:44:26 – IMAX
00:47:44 -HRB
00:47:58 – TOL
00:48:27 – TD
00:48:47 – M
00:49:08 – Chipotle
00:49:21 – VALE
00:49:35 – US Steel
00:49:40 – LB
00:49:59 – TAP
00:50:18 – MJ
00:50:27 – CHL
00:50:39 – MO
00:51:11 – MLY
00:51:15 – Dividend Portfolio Trades
00:51:27 -IBRT
00:51:42 – SPWR
00:51:50 – GOLD
00:52:31 – LABU
00:53:59 – TXN
00:54:16 – MDR
00:54:23 – SUGAR | OIL
01:00:07 – FUTURES CHART
01:02:52 – JO
01:12:23 – AAPL
01:13:47 – TCNNF
01:14:55 – UBER
01:22:33 – IBM
01:25:30 – DISNEY
01:39:25 – HBI
01:40:04 – LTP
01:42:18 – MAC
01:44:35 – Money Talk Portfolio


Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!




Real pay data show Trump’s ‘blue collar boom’ is more of a bust for US workers, in 3 charts

 

Real pay data show Trump's 'blue collar boom' is more of a bust for US workers, in 3 charts

When looking at your paycheck, don’t forget about inflation. Leif Skoogfors/Getty Images

Courtesy of David Salkever, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

If you thought workers’ hourly pay was finally rising, think again.

At first glance, the latest data – which came out on Feb. 7 – look pretty good. They show nominal hourly earnings rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier.

But the operative word here is nominal, which means not adjusted for changes in the cost of living. Once you factor in inflation, the picture changes drastically. And far from representing a “blue collar boom” – as the president put it in his State of the Union address – the real, inflation-adjusted data show most U.S. workers have not benefited from the growing economy.

As an economist who studies wage data, I think it’s paramount that we take a step back and look at what the data really show.

The effect of inflation and fringes

The Bureau of Labor Statistics comes out with two sets of data on wages.

Business journalists and financial markets tend to focus on the monthly data. These figures are only reported in nominal or current terms because the inflation data doesn’t come out until later.

A more complete set of wage and pay data is reported quarterly. The latest release came out in December for the third quarter. These figures are not only adjusted for inflation but also include fringe benefits, which account for just under a third of total compensation.

At first blush, it makes sense to focus primarily on the first set. Newer data is, well, newer, and market participants and companies prefer the latest information when making decisions about investments, hiring and so on.

But the effect of inflation means that the same US$1 bill buys less stuff over time as prices increase.

From December 2016 to September 2019, nominal wages rose 6.79% from $22.83 to $24.38. But after factoring in inflation, average wages barely budged, climbing just 0.42% in…
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We Are Different. And Different is Difficult.

 

Best-selling author and scientist David Brin shares another excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the firstsecond and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog, Contrary Brin, and an excerpt from chapter 5, The War on All Fact People, right here

 

WE ARE DIFFERENT. AND DIFFERENT IS DIFFICULT

Excerpted from David Brin's book, in chapter 10, Polemical Judo: Memes for our Political Knife-fight (pp. 159-161). Kindle Edition.    

I’ve asserted that the Rooseveltian reforms might have been too successful. Historians credit them with saving western capitalism by vesting the working class with a large stake. Indeed, they were so successful that the very idea of class war – rampant across almost every other nation and time – seems not even to occur to American boomers. [230]  But as boomers age-out, is that grand time of naïve delusion over?

Forbes in 2016 announced that just 62 ultra-rich individuals have as much wealth as the bottom half of humanity.[231] Five years before, it took 388 rich guys to achieve that status.[232] Which raises a question I’ll repeat ad nauseam throughout this book. Where the heck does this rising, proto-feudal oligarchy think it will all lead?

To a restoration of humanity’s normal, aristocratic pyramid of power, with them on top? Or to radicalization, as a billion members of the hard-pressed but highly skilled and tech-empowered middle class rediscover class struggle, alongside five billion angry workers? (I portray both possibilities in a near-future novel, Existence.) The last time this happened, in the 1930s, lordly owner castes in Germany, Japan, Britain and the U.S. used their mass media ownership to stir populist rightwing movements, hoping to suppress activity on the left while allowing business as usual. Not one of these efforts succeeded. In Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan, their pet monsters rose up and took over, leading to immense pain for all and eventual loss of most of that oligarchic wealth.

In Britain and the U.S. 1930s reactionary fomenters dragged us all-too-near the same path… till moderate reformers
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Humans are hardwired to dismiss facts that don’t fit their worldview

 

Could the tendency for biases to lead to fact denial as described here for beliefs about subjects such as climate change, vaccines, GMOs and Donald Trump could be applied to investing decisions as well? Think about our reluctance to give up on a failing company or lock in a big loss…  

 

Humans are hardwired to dismiss facts that don't fit their worldview

What’s behind this natural tendency? Zhou Eka/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adrian Bardon, Wake Forest University

Something is rotten in the state of American political life. The U.S. (among other nations) is increasingly characterized by highly polarized, informationally insulated ideological communities occupying their own factual universes.

Within the conservative political blogosphere, global warming is either a hoax or so uncertain as to be unworthy of response. Within other geographic or online communities, vaccines, fluoridated water and genetically modified foods are known to be dangerous. Right-wing media outlets paint a detailed picture of how Donald Trump is the victim of a fabricated conspiracy.

None of that is correct, though. The reality of human-caused global warming is settled science. The alleged link between vaccines and autism has been debunked as conclusively as anything in the history of epidemiology. It’s easy to find authoritative refutations of Donald Trump’s self-exculpatory claims regarding Ukraine and many other issues.

Yet many well-educated people sincerely deny evidence-based conclusions on these matters.

In theory, resolving factual disputes should be relatively easy: Just present evidence of a strong expert consensus. This approach succeeds most of the time, when the issue is, say, the atomic weight of hydrogen.

But things don’t work that way when the scientific consensus presents a picture that threatens someone’s ideological worldview. In practice, it turns out that one’s political, religious or ethnic identity quite effectively predicts one’s willingness to accept expertise on any given politicized issue.

Motivated reasoning” is what social scientists call the process of deciding what evidence to accept based on the conclusion one prefers. As I explain in my book, “The Truth About Denial,” this very human tendency applies to all kinds of facts about the physical…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-29-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:02:28 – Checking on the Market
00:04:37 – Petroleum Status Report
00:09:46 – ARAMCO Refinery Attack
00:13:57 – The Market and NCov
00:22:27 – USO
00:26:57 – Nasdaq 100 | DJIA | Shorting Techniques
00:36:52 – Natural Gas
00:37:38 – Coffee
00:41:00 – Silver | Copper | Palladium | Gold
00:41:53 – Wheat | Soybeans |
00:42:51 – Portfolio Review: Overview
00:44:24 – Portfolio Review: STP
00:46:34 – Portfolio Review: LTP | Current STP renamed to LTP
00:48:39 – New STP
00:52:44 – Butterfly Portfolio
01:00:34 – Trade Exchange & Restarting OOP
01:06:18 – Cont. Butterfly Portfolio
01:14:08 – Dividend Portfolio
01:21:00 – FOMC
01:27:34 – Earnings Portfolio
01:29:32 – Hemp Boca Portfolio
01:30:09 – Money Talk Portfolio
01:31:51 – Current News
01:32:58 – Dividend Portfolio
01:37:12 – TXT
01:49:13 – Atlanta FED

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-22-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:02:27 – Recap of last week's Trade Deal
00:03:10 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:03:59 – IMAX
00:27:28 – TOT
00:39:40 – Trade Techniques
00:40:45 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:41:37 – Butterfly Portfolio
00:42:37 – GOLD
00:44:46 – Dividend Portfolio
00:56:30 – Futures | More trading techniques
01:01:37 – TSLA
01:10:18 – FCEL
01:18:23 – AAPL | 5G
01:43:03-JP Morgan Profitable Trading Days
01:44:47 – More trading techniques
01:51:28 – Natural Gas
01:52:00 – Earnings Portfolio
01:52:05 – Hemp Boca Portfolio
01:52:10 – STP
01:57:29 – NLY

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





The War on All Fact People

 

Best-selling author and scientist David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book, Polemical Judo, on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can read the first, second and final chapters on David's blog, Contrary Brin, and an excerpt from chapter 10, We are Different, Different is Difficult, here.

 

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes for our Political Knife-fight (pp. 56-62). Kindle Edition.    

I may be ostracized for saying it, but the core targets of the Fox/Putin-led oligarchic putsch aren’t racism or sexism or nativism.[80]

Oh, the foremost victims – those most deeply hurt – are minorities, women, immigrants, non-binaries, the disempowered, millions of children and vulnerable others! To varying degrees, they are the ones suffering pain and gross injustice. And sure, bigotry’s dog-whistles have incited America’s worst elements into violent rage. In The New York Times, Charles Blow summarizes: they support Trump because he is mean to the people they like to be mean to.[81]

“Trump’s own punitive spirit aligns with and gives voice and muscle to American conservatives’ long simmering punitive lust. And this insatiable desire to inflict pain has particular targets: women (specifically feminists), racial minorities, people who are L.G.B.T.Q. and religious minorities in this country. In short, the punishments are directed at anyone who isn’t part of, or supportive of, the white supremacist patriarchy.”

Still, turn your gaze upward from pathetic Nazis and jibbering supremacists, to their masters and hypnotizing controllers. Ponder what those masters need. To them, bigotry is incidental – a leverage tool. Their bid for total power is not blocked by the powerless. But it might truly be thwarted by other, competing “elites.” Consider the bleak prospects for enlightened civilization across this current battlefield. With our elections cheat-stolen, our courts stuff-stacked with shills, millions incited into populist madness, and wealth disparities skyrocketing, just one force stands in feudalism’s way. The new lords must neutralize the counter-effectiveness of our fact-professions.[82]

  • Scientists.[83]                 


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Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

 

Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

Josh and I spoke recently  about the slow grind higher, the lack of volatility, and all the recent stock market records. The very first response in the comment section was, “market overdue for a pullback.”

This seems to be the prevailing narrative and I gotta be honest, I agree. I’m just as surprised as anyone that the market keeps grinding higher.

Here are a few data points, by way of the S&P 500.

  • The index has closed within 2% of the all-time high for 68 straight days
  • The index has gone 70 days without a 1% decline, the sixth longest streak over the last 20 years.
  • 87% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average
  • The S&P 500 is currently 11% above its 200-day moving average.

Rather than relying on our collective intuition that we’re due for a pullback, I wanted to look at what the data said. For this analysis, as a measurement of stocks being over extended, we looked at the S&P 500 when it was 10% above its 200-day moving average.

Before we go any further, there is nothing particularly special about the 200-day. We (Nick) also looked at the 50 and 100-day and they all told the same story. The chart below shows when the S&P 500 has been more than 10% above its 200-day moving average.

You’ll notice a few things right off the bat. This sort of thing, when stocks are extended, tends to happen at all-time highs and in deep drawdowns. The latter might be counter intuitive but think about huge bounces off the lows, like the GFC for example. By September 2009, the S&P 500 was 20% above its 200-day moving average even as it was sat 32% below all-time highs.

Since 1950, when the S&P 500 is at least 10% above its 200-day moving average, 59% of the time it was within 2% of its all-time high, and 13% of the time it was in a greater than 20% drawdown.

You can…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-15-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:54 – Checking on the Market
00:03:22 – Petroleum Status Report
00:10:40 – Trading Techniques
00:13:18 – XLE | OIH
00:15:11 – Butterfly Portfolio Review
00:28:34 – AAPL | Yahoo Finance
00:45:59 – IMAX
00:55:01 – More Trading Techniques 
00:57:21 – GM | F | HMC | TM | NSANY | DDAIF
00:58:33 – TSLA
01:04:35 – More Trading Techniques 
01:05:17 – TM
01:10:40 – Northern Dynasty
01:19:59 – FED Beige Book
01:28:32 – AAPL Premiums
01:34:44 – Portfolio Reviews

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!

 





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 01-09-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:02:02 – Checking on the Markets
00:11:20 – Petroleum Status Report | Futures | Crude Oil
00:39:00 – CAFE Standards Europe
00:48:03 – Indexes | Trading Tenchiniques
00:57:26 – Earnings Portfolio
00:59:26 – Butterfly Portfolio
01:11:10 – Dividend Portfolio
01:13:49 – Hemp Boca Portfolio
01:14:29 – THC
01:14:48 – WBA
01:15:57 – Money Talk Portfolio
01:16:26 – STP
01:30:24 – SKT
01:33:38 – Top Trades

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Leader Facing Important Long-Term Breakout Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2009 lows, Semiconductors have been taken a leadership role as they have far outpaced the gains of the S&P 500.

Gains since the 2009 lows; SOXX Index = +821% S&P 500 = +273%.

The SOXX index has spent the majority of the past 10-years inside of rising channel (1), which first started at the  2009 lows.

As the SOXX index is testing the top of this 10-year rising channel, it is also testing its Fibonacci 423% extension level of its 2001 highs and 2009 lows at (2).

This leading index would send a positive message t...



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Zero Hedge

Global Stocks Slide After Apple Guidance Cut Is "Wake Up Call" To Zombified Investors

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Two weeks ago, when looking at the supply-chain crippling consequences of the Coronavirus epidemic, we asked "Is Tech About To Suffer A "Dot Com" Bubble Collapse?" and concluded that "It's now all in China's hands" noting that "...while the market leaders did not disappoint in the last quarter of 2019 when stocks exploded higher with the blessing of the Fed's QE4, what abou...



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Phil's Favorites

Bloomberg Has Built a Star Wars Machine to Try to Steal the Democratic Nomination

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Michael Bloomberg

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is used to getting his way. After serving two terms as New York City’s Mayor as a Republican, he used his own vast stash of cash to repeal term limits and give himself another four-year term, running as an Independent. Now he has promised to do the unprecedented: spend $1 billion of his own money to install himself as President of the United States, running on the Democratic ticket.

Bloomberg’s campaign increasingly resembles an octopus with money gushing out of its tentacles into anything and everything that will inject Mic...



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Insider Scoop

AMX Buys Fellow Alabama Company Powell, Adds Reefer Capacity

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alabama Motor Express will push deeper into the refrigerated business with purchase of Powell Transport Solutions.

The acquisition, announced earlier this week, will bring 35 refrigerated trailers to AMX, the company said in a statement. A spokeswoman for AMX, in response to questions submitted by FreightWaves, said the company's business is currently about 10% refrigerated. The AMX fleet before the acquisition was 210 trailers, she said.

Powell's business is 100% refrigerated, according to the...



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Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



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Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



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The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unloc...



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ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) Outperforms Large-Cap Benchmarks

While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



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Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned wi...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.