Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

It’s Too Late To Avoid A Major Oil Supply Crisis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by David Messler via OilPrice.com,

There are a number of observable trends in oil supplies and by extension prices, presently. I am going to discuss one of them in this article. A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas. A favorite analogy of mine comes to mind, the ship is nearing the dock. In nautical parlance that means the time for course corrections is at an end. So we shall see if that is the case for oil. The massive "ship" that is world oil demand is on an unalterable collision with supplies that will have profound implications for consumers. This key metric reveals what the future is likely to hold for our energy security as the world continues to recover from the virus to those who will listen. The level of drilling and by extension capital investment is insufficient and has been for a number of years to sustain oil production at current levels. It's no secret that even with the lower break-even costs for new projects thanks to cost-cutting by the industry the last few years, oil extraction is a capital-intensive business. The chart below from WoodMac, an energy consultancy, shows just how severe the decline in capex has been.

WSJ

The message to oil and gas companies has been pretty clear from the market, investment funds like Blackrock seeking green “purity” in the allocation of financing of new energy sources, and government edicts mandating carbon intensity reduction across the entire swath of society, and a transformation to renewable energy, that new supplies of oil and gas are not wanted.

These companies seem to have gotten the message, loud and clear. The super-major cohort formed by Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, TotalEnergies, all prime targets of the anti-oil movement, have reduced their capital allocation toward petroleum, exited businesses or converted petroleum assets like refineries to renewables, and sold assets that a few years ago might have contributed to oil and gas inventories.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Shell was told to speed up its decarbonization by a Dutch court, and just this week the company took steps in that direction. Shell's decision to exit its Permian shale position is monumental and


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BofA: The Fed Finally Conceded That $4BN In Daily Asset Purchases Does Not Reduce Social Inequality

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Many were shocked by the Fed's hawkish reversal (which was misconstrued on Thursday as dovish so Powell unleashed the Powell to make it abundantly clear just what the Fed's thoughts on inflation are), but not BofA's CIO Michael Hartnett who had long been warning that the Fed risks not only being behind the curve but losing control of inflation altogether if it did or said nothing on Wednesday, and so he was entitled a victory lap of sorts in his latest Flow Show report, in which he writes that just as "BofA FMS investors were bullishly positioned for permanent growth, transitory inflation, peaceful Fed via longs in commodities, cyclicals & financials into June FOMC" when the Fed pulled the rug from under them.

In Hartnett's post-mortem, the BofA strategist writes that the Fed "flipped from dovish to hawkish" conceding what should be obvious to anyone with a somewhat functioning brain, that zero rates and $4BN of asset purchases every day are incompatible with

a. stocks/bonds/housing prices at all-time highs,

b. GDP +15%, retail sales +40%, payrolls artificially low (Chart 3), CPI annualizing 8%, and…

c. the new "social & economic" goal of reducing inequality (see Fed balance sheet & market cap of Big Tech).

The Fed's hawkish capitulation, also means that what until now had been an "easy Fed" = "easy trade" and a “good news = good news” market in H1, as the shift from global QE to QT accelerates in H2, QE from the big 4 (Fed, ECB, BoJ, BOE) is set to fall $8.5tn in ‘20 to $3.4tn in ‘21 to $0.3tn in ’22.

Amid this rapid slowdown in QE, we are also seeing a sharp tightening in financial conditions on the rate side with 19 rate hikes thus far in ’21 vs 5 in ’20 (8 rate cuts vs 195 last year)…

… so in H2 the market will be a nightmare for most traders, as “good news = tighter liquidity = bad news”…low/negative stock/credit H2 returns.

There's more: not only will good news be bad


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Apollo’s Management Upheaval Is Threatening Flagship $25BN Private Equity Fund

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

All the tumult in Apollo's C-suite is starting to impact the firm's ability to put capital to work. According to a Bloomberg report published Thursday, with former CEO and co-founder Leon Black out the door and fellow billionaire Jeff Harris only a few steps behind, the firm is scrambling to address a technicality that is nevertheless critical to its ability to continue operating.

It's what's known as a "Key man" clause. The company's record-setting $24.7 billion flagship buyout fund came with a clause attached requiring the firm to get permission from investors to continue operating if two of the three "key men" involved with the project were to depart the firm. As it stands, the fund's 'key man' clause stipulates Harris and Black as two of the three men (along with CEO and fellow co-founder Mark Rowan). Both Black and Harris plan to remain on the board, where they each presently enjoy a seat (with Black still serving as chairman).

In fact, the 'key man' clause is one of, if not the only, reasons why Harris has agreed to stay on in a reduced capacity until next year: the firm literally can't afford to lose him until it's finished with its legal workaround. The situation has "has given him leverage in deciding what role he continues to play at the company," according to a BBG source.

Without the clause, Harris would probably already be gone. Or at the very least, he likely wouldn't be allowed to stay on while doing little to no work, according to Bloomberg reports. Earlier this year, Harris tried to push Black out in an attempt to seize the leadership of the firm, a push that reportedly backfired (according to BBG), leading to Harris being passed over for the CEO job, which was allegedly the catalyst for his decision to depart.

The firm has pushed to replace Black with co-President Scott Kleinman, an Apollo veteran, while also weighing whether to push for a different arrangement that would greatly reduce the odds of the clause ever being triggered.

As part of its proposal, the New York-based firm is asking to replace Black


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JPMorgan, Citigroup and BofA Ruled Not “Fit” to Participate in Huge European Bond Offering Because of Past Crimes

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Flag of the European Union

Flag of the European Union

How embarrassing it must be for Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, that three of the largest banks in the U.S. that are supervised by the Fed, have been deemed not trustworthy enough by the European Commission that they were banned from participating in this week’s historic European Union bond offering.

It is also egg on the face of the U.S. Department of Justice, which has been handing out deferred prosecution agreements to these same banks for felony counts like it’s a meter maid doling out parking tickets.

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America were banned along with seven non-U.S. banks from participating in this week’s European Union bond offering. The syndicated offering this week is the first leg of a $969 billion COVID-19 recovery fund for Europe.

The seven non-U.S. banks that were barred are: Barclays, Crédit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, Natixis, NatWest, Nomura and UniCredit.

Adding to the embarrassment of the three U.S. banks that have been banned is the fact that a much smaller U.S. bank in terms of assets, Morgan Stanley, snagged the position as one of the joint lead managers on the deal.



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“They’re Not Going Away” – Retail Trading Continued To Surge During First Half Of 2021

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, we shared some new research from Goldman Sachs that confirmed what many had observed over the past year: the flood of newly-minted retail traders seen over the past year and a half has transformed retail trading activity from a contrarian to a leading indicator.

In fact, the newfound dominance of retail traders has taken an old market dynamic and flipped it on its head: in contemporary markets, it's retail traders who generate buzz in a stock by driving it higher, drawing the attention of institutional traders, before the "dumb" money rotates out, leaving the "smart" money holding the bag. The dynamic has been perhaps the most pronounced with GME.

Institutional traders have taken notice of this newfound retail "edge", which is why firms like Cindicator Capital are looking to hire a longtime "WallStreetBets" vet instead of an institutional trader. The firm's job posting made the media rounds because of its ask that applicants have "at least 1,000 of Reddit's goodwill karma points." The firm is offering a salary of $200K plus bonuses (along with a place in a Burning Man camp).

And while that posting likely elicited plenty of scoffs from the industry, a WSJ report published Friday suggests that the firm might be on to something, since the explosion of retail trading activity that emerged last year has only intensified during the first half of 2021. Citing an estimate from JMP Securities, WSJ said new brokerage accounts opened by individual investors have already roughly matched the total opened throughout 2020.

What's more, individual investors have poured a net $140.57 billion into US stocks this year, according to data from Vanda Research’s VandaTrack. That's up roughly 33% from the same period a year ago.

Thanks to zero-commission trading and the advent of payment for order flow, has sent retail's share of average daily US equity-market turnover to 20%, double its level from a decade ago.

Larry Tabb, an analyst who focuses on market structure, warned that he expected individual investors' elevated levels of trading activity to continue for the foreseeable future.


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2Y Treasury Yields Are Exploding Higher, Yield Curve Collapse Crushes Banks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

2Y Yields are up for the 6th straight day with the biggest daily surge in yields since Feb 2020. At the same, the long-end of the curve is seeing demand (as yields drop)…

Source: Bloomberg

This surge in yields at the short-end has pushed 2Y to the highest since April 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Collapsing the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

And dragging financials lower…

Source: Bloomberg

As Mike Shedlock notes, The Fed has penciled in two rate hikes for 2023, but by the time they get around to hiking, they will instead be cutting.

Meanwhile, the way these dunderheads think, there will soon be some discussion about the need to hike just so they have "room to cut".

I rather doubt we get there. 

There is one slight problem. At 0% the Fed has no room to cut. 

Bullard broke it… we're gonna need a bigger Fed speaker to walk this back!





Tokyo Allows Alcohol For Patrons Drinking Alone As Organizers Mull Olympic Games Crowd Limits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Yesterday, the Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga announced that Japan would relax emergency measures in Tokyo and the country's other prefectures currently affected by a state-of-emergency order, lifting most COVID-19-related restrictions just five weeks before a dramatically scaled-back and already once-delayed Summer Olympics.

Meanwhile, the chief of the Olympic Games organizing committee, Seiko Hashimoto, said Friday that she wants to allow up to 10,000 spectators at Olympic events. despite the fact that a panel of Japanese medical experts warned Friday that barring spectators would be the safest option. As authorities wait on a final decision, authorities in Tokyo have decided to roll back some of the capital's controversial restrictions on alcohol consumption – but not to the degree that many consumers and business owners had hoped.

In what struck us as a conspicuously dystopian headline, Reuters reported Friday that the Tokyo Metropolitan Government plans to allow bars and restaurants to serve alcohol again starting Monday – but there's a catch. Customers who wish to drink have been asked to visit the bar alone – or with at most one other person – and they will only be allowed to stay a maximum of 90 minutes.

Tokyo's decision to allow patrons to drink alone, but not in groups, seems destined to be remembered as Japan's "rule of six" – an unpopular and seemingly arbitrary restriction.

Solitary drinkers will be allowed to order alcohol between 1700 and 1900 (bars and restaurants will still be required to close at 2000 Tokyo Time). The rules will keep restaurants and bars in the capital city from operating at full capacity during what's expected to be a busy summer for the city.

For the most recent state of emergency, Japan's third, authorities focused on alcohol, fearing that lowered inhibitions would lead to loud voices, lapses in hygiene and bellying up to the bar for too long, increasing the risks of aerosol contagion.

After the new measures were confirmed, Japanese took to social media to complain about the new rules and the seeming "double standard" given that the 2020 Summer Olympics are set to open in just over a month despite widespread opposition.

"Some say


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PhilStockWorld June Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gifImage result for one million dollars animated gif$2,147,243!  

That's actually DOWN $5,530 since our last review as our Short-Term Portfolio (our hedges) took a pretty good hit on the recent rally.  That's fine as I'd rather have a relaxing summer not worried about losing these ridiculous gains so parking the portfolio in neutral into earnings was a sensible way to play.  

We gained $186,448 (almost 10%) in the previous month so locking that in was a good goal but now we're past earnings and past the Fed and we'll have to decide what to do next.  We're already 50% in CASH!!! and we love our positions and we even added a few new ones to the LTP over the past month as we have that Fear Of Missing Out disease that's rampant among the investing population.

Still, our overall portfolio performance is a barometer and we can sense changes coming when we can't make money but, as I said, the LTP itself gained $38,000 over the past month, it's the STP that dragged our paired portfolios lower – but that's what it's supposed to do in a bull market – this just indicates we played the month a bit too bearish so we can either hedge less (no way!) or add some more longs.  That's a work in progress.

In our last review, we got more aggressive on BABA and SKT and, since then, we added new trades on AFL, CIM, FNF, HAL, MO, RIO, SC and VLO – so it's been a pretty busy month – even though it seems pretty dull day to day.   Here's the LTP update:

 

  • TTE – Was TOT and they haven't fixed the options yet so those are missing.  Love this company but currently toppy.  

  • Short Puts – These are essentially a watch list of stocks we'd like to buy if they get cheaper.  We just pulled the trigger on RIO, turning it into a full spead from a short put.  We have collected $117,050 for promising to buy 17 stocks if they get cheaper and, if they don't get cheaper, we keep the money.  The remaining net is $76,368 so


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Stocks Accelerate Losses As Fed’s Bullard Admits “Tilted More Hawkish”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US equity futures were already sliding this morning as option expirations loomed, but when St.Louis Fed Chair Jim Bullard appeared on CNBC and admitted that "it's natural that [The Fed] has tilted a little bit more hawkish," losses accelerated…

Bullard then added some more FUD by admitting that there "is some upside risk on the inflation forecast," and confirmed that "Fed Chair Powell has opened the taper discussion this week."

So much for transitory!!

Piling on, Bullard admitted that he is a "little concerned about housing market froth", noting that The Fed "is leaning toward idea that it may not need to be buying MBS," adding that "we don't wanna to get back in the housing bubble game… that caused us a lot of distress in 2008."

Did The Fed just pull the Powell Put?





Wuhan, Weapons, & Burned Spies: CCP Defector Identified, Gave ‘Terabytes’ Of Dirt To US Govt.

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Jennifer Van Laar via RedState,

We now know the name of the Chinese defector who has been working with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for a few months and what his position within the Chinese military and government was, among other details.

Matthew Brazil and Jeff Stein at Spy Talk reported on the “rumor,” and gave the name and background of the rumored defector:

Chinese-language anti-communist media and Twitter are abuzz this week with rumors that a vice minister of State Security, Dong Jingwei (???) defected in mid-February, flying from Hong Kong to the United States with his daughter, Dong Yang.

Dong is, or was, a longtime official in China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), also known as the Guoanbu. His publicly available background indicates that he was responsible for the Ministry’s counterintelligence efforts in China, i.e., spy-catching, since being promoted to vice minister in April 2018. If the stories are true, Dong would be the highest-level defector in the history of the People’s Republic of China.

RedState’s sources confirmed that the defector is, in fact, Dong, that he was in charge of counterintelligence efforts in China, and that he flew to the United States in mid-February, allegedly to visit his daughter at a university in California. When Dong landed in California he contacted DIA officials and told them about his plans to defect and the information he’d brought with him. Dong then “hid in plain sight” for about two weeks before disappearing into DIA custody.

According to Spy Talk, Dong’s name came up during the Sino-American Summit held in Alaska in March 2021:

In a tweet on Wednesday, Han [Dr. Han Lianchao, a Chinese defector], citing an unnamed source, alleged that China’s foreign minister Wang Yi and Communist Party foreign affairs boss Yang Jiechi demanded that the Americans return Dong and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken refused.

RedState’s sources say that Chinese officials did demand that the United States return Dong, but Blinken didn’t exactly refuse; at that time Blinken wasn’t aware that Dong was with the US government,


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Phil's Favorites

Artisan robots with AI smarts will juggle tasks, choose tools, mix and match recipes and even order materials - all without human help

 

Artisan robots with AI smarts will juggle tasks, choose tools, mix and match recipes and even order materials – all without human help

Factory robots could soon acquire a range of skills, including the ability to choose how to make things. studiostockart/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn S. Daehn, The Ohio State University

Failure of a machine in a factory can shut it down. Lost production can cost millions of dollars per day. Component failures can devastate factories, power plants and battlefield ...



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Zero Hedge

It's Too Late To Avoid A Major Oil Supply Crisis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by David Messler via OilPrice.com,

There are a number of observable trends in oil supplies and by extension prices, presently. I am going to discuss one of them in this article. A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas. A favorite analogy of mine comes to mind, the ship is nearing the dock. In nautical parlance that means the time for course corrections is at an end. So we shall see if that is the case for oi...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

 

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

One of this and one of that might be a good strategy to coronavirus vaccination. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology

While it’s now pretty easy to get a COVID-19 shot in most places in the U.S., the vaccine rollout in other parts of the world has been slow or inconsistent due to ...



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Chart School

Gold Seasonals and T Theory Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold tends to slump at the start of the US summer, and will Basel 3 make a difference this year?

Basel 3 has removed a large chuck of paper shorts off the LBMA, of course this is for the banks only, the hedge funds can continue to suppress gold with paper shorts. The true effect of Basel 3 may not be known for some month. 


A typical pattern in the metals is a smash down just before a major rally, consider this:


POINT 1: IRD recent post did say this

..."I’m wondering if the entire 'Kabuki Theatre' production is being staged to...



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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

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Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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