Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Peak Globalism: Slowdown In Number Of International Students Choosing Chinese Schools

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

China’s Ministry of Education reports that total foreign enrollment in the country reached almost half a million international students in 2018. This figure represents a 0.62% rise in 2017 enrollment data, furthermore points to a collapse in growth when compared to double-digit increases observed in the last decade.

ICEF (International Consultants for Education and Fairs) Monitor, a market intelligence resource for the international education and student travel industry, noted that foreign enrollment in China expanded per annum on average 10% between 2006 and 2015. During 2017 to 2018, y/y growth fell to less than 1%, indicating that international students have begun to shun Chinese schools.

ICEF Monitor shows Beijing had the largest population of international students, with 80,786, or 16.4% of the 2018 total. Other top regions were Shanghai (61,400), Jiangsu (45,778), Zhejiang (38,190), and Liaoning (27,879).

There are 195 countries that feed into China's current foreign exchange program, but six out of ten come from neighboring countries. South Korea is the top feeder with 50,600 students enrolled in 2018, followed by Thailand (28,600) in the same period.

In the Western Hemisphere, the US sent 21,000 students in 2018.

The Ministry of Education showed that 87% of international students are self-funded, with about 63,000 students receiving government-funded scholarships.

The slowdown in international students feeding into China comes at a time when globalism has peaked. Now protectionism and nationalism are spreading like wildfire throughout the world, destroying complex supply chains – thus reworking international trade.

China's economic growth plummeted to its slowest annual rate in 30 years as US protectionism through a trade war stymied global growth.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been pumping cash into local markets to reignite bubbles, along with government stimulus to revive the faltering economy.

Given current conditions of a slowing China and faltering globalism, it's likely that foreign students flocking to China for education could reverse into the early 2020s – destroying a near decade trend. 





A Practitioner’s Guide To MMT, Part 2

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

Yesterday’s post dealt with how modern monetary theory might help your trading in the current environment. It focused on what I called the descriptive portion of MMT which explains how a modern fiat-based economy works. This next part will examine the implications for markets if the prescriptive part of MMT is adopted.

Before we go any further, I would like to highlight that even if you are a die-hard neo-classical or Austrian economics disciple who believes MMT to be nothing more than a rehashing of bad economic ideas from a few centuries ago (a claim that seems to fill my inbox whenever I write about MMT), ignoring MMT’s rising popularity would be about as smart (and effective) as a dog barking at waves in the ocean.

As traders/investors our job is not to decide the best way to organize society (we leave that to the much smarter politicians and economists), but to construct portfolios that will perform best under the existing circumstances. If you want to rail against MMT, then you are free to do. But I happen to believe you are missing a valuable tool for understanding how the economy and markets behave in the post gold-standard fiat-based world.

If in the coming years politicians adopt MMT policies, your outrage will do your portfolio little good. Therefore you might as well try as best you can to unemotionally analyze the implications of these potential policy implementations.

So without further ado, let’s try to determine how best to adapt to the MMT possibility.

Difficulty defining MMT

The first problem lies in the difficulty defining MMT. We know that at its heart, MMT centers around the idea that governments are not financially constrained by debt, rather they face a real resource limit (subject to certain conditions). It is easy to agree that MMT’ers believe there is more policy space for fiscal stimulus in almost all modern economies. For example, Donald Trump’s tax cut of late 2017 was entirely consistent with MMT policies. Even though a Keynesian would have argued that eight years into an economic cycle the government should attempt to balance the budget, MMT proponents would have…
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More Elderly Americans Are Working Than Ever Before

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Since the beginning of the post-crisis recovery, stagnant wage growth has been one of the most frustrating labor-market mysteries bedeviling the policy makers at the Fed. With the unemployment rate at 3.8%, the Phillips Curve dictates that wage growth should be accelerating as employers battle for the few remaining unoccupied workers in a "tight" labor market.

Cancer

One reason for this phenomenon as we have posited in the past, could be the record number of elderly Americans who have lingered in – or returned to – the workforce, unable to retire due to myriad factors, including high health-care costs and inadequate retirement savings. And of course, the advent of the financial crisis ten years ago, which robbed many older Americans of much of their life savings, didn't help.

According to Bloomberg, citing a new report from money manager United Income, the labor force participation rate of retirement-age workers has cracked 20% for the first time in 57 years. Going solely by numbers, this means more seniors are working than ever before. Meanwhile, the share of working age Americans in the work force has fallen to its lowest level since the 1970s, before a large number of women entered the professional workforce. Though higher-education elderly Americans have made strong gains in income compared with people in a similar position decades ago, the buffer they've created for hiring managers could be one reason why many companies haven't needed to raise wages to attract more workers.

Labour

The percentage of the labor force comprising workers aged 65 and older has roughly doubled since 1985. The biggest increase has occurred among older workers with college degrees, who now comprise 53% of all over-65 workers, compared with 25% in 1985.

In an ominous sign for millennials, who blame baby boomers for soaking up the benefits of peak American prosperity, including affordable education and home ownership, and generous retirement packages that included pensions, even with those advantages, it appears baby boomers will continue working longer then their predecessors, as millions still won't be able to substitute enough of their working income from passive sources. While some of the better educated older…
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Cryptos Tumble After NY AG Accuses Bitfinex Of Massive $850 Million Cover-Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

New York’s Attorney General alleged the operator of the Bitfinex cryptocurrency trading platform and the issuer of the Tether "stablecoin" lost $850 million which it subsequently covered up using funds from affiliated stablecoin operator Tether – i.e., engaged in co-mingling of client and corporate funds – to secretly cover the shortfall; the news sparked a sharp selloff in the cryptocurrency space where Bitfinex has long been rumored to be a mechanism to prop up various virtual currencies.

A judge in Manhattan issued an order barring iFinex Inc., which operates the infamous Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange and owns Tether Ltd. from money money from Tether’s reserves to Bitfinex’s bank accounts, halt any dividends or other distributions to executives and turn over documents and information, New York Attorney General Letitia James said Thursday in a statement. Tether is one of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrencies and is used in a significant share of trades involving Bitcoin. The NY AG said iFinex had been commingling client and corporate funds to cover up the missing funds, which occurred in mid-2018 and hadn’t been disclosed publicly.

“New York state has led the way in requiring virtual currency businesses to operate according to the law," James said. "We will continue to stand-up for investors and seek justice on their behalf when misled or cheated by any of these companies.”

According to the WSJ, the AG's findings emerged from an investigation into cryptocurrency exchanges that it launched in 2018 and is continuing. A report in September warned that many exchanges lacked basic safeguards and left consumers vulnerable to exploitation by market manipulators.

The attorney general said Bitfinex’s problems began in 2018, when it handed over $850 million to third-party payments processor Crypto Capital Corp. to handle customers-withdrawal requests. Over the months that followed, Panama-based Crypto Capital failed to process the orders, the attorney general said.

By November of that year, according to people close to the attorney general’s investigation, Bitfinex determined that it had permanently lost access to the $850 million. To hide the missing funds, Bitfinex and Tether engaged in a series of maneuvers that drained Tether’s reserves, the people said.

Tether has frequently been accused of facilitating cryptocurrency…
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Charles Hugh Smith: “Today Looks Like Just Before The 2000-DotCom Crash”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Journalist and book author Charles Hugh Smith says the next market crash and recession will unfold like the bursting of the 2000 Dotcom bubble.

Smith explains, “The bubble popped or deflated not for any crisis, but simply because there was too much debt, too much leverage, too much euphoria and unrealistic valuations…"

"I think we are seeing that now in stocks, housing and a lot of other assets around the world. The valuations just exceed what makes financial sense

And remember, we are at the longest expansion in history. It’s over 10 years, and the average expansion lasts 5, 6 or 7 years. So, this expansion is pretty long in tooth…

You will get a slowdown, and that is a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Once people stop buying houses and once people stop buying cars… then you are going to get people being laid off, less people being able to afford to eat out, and then you get a self-reinforcing recession. It’s not a crisis, but like an erosion because everybody is kind of tapped out.”

Recently, President Trump and his economic advisors have been talking up rate cuts and money printing to help the economy. Are they seeing a slowdown coming? Smith, who has written 12 financial oriented books, says:

“I think they do, and I think that’s the only reasonable explanation for why they are talking about rate cuts when the employment is strong and the economy is looking good by many factors.

Why would they want cheaper money unless they see the slowdown in auto sales, and they see the slowdown in housing, and they see a slowdown with all the things where you have to borrow a lot of money to make it work.

Can team Trump keep the economy going until after the 2020 election? Smith says:

“I think you are pushing a little bit on a string to get a 10 year long expansion to stretch out to 12 years. It’s like you are pushing sand uphill at some point….Inflation is roaring in assets. Housing is unaffordable in many areas, and


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Intel Crashes After Slashing Guidance: “China Headwinds Have Increased”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: Speaking on the investor conference call, CEO Bob Swan warned that "China headwinds have increased."

*  *  *

Intel shares are plunging after hours after beating top- and bottom-line but slashing guidance.

In its first quarterly report card since Swan took the reins as permanent CEO in January, Intel reported flat year-over-year revenue.

Revenue and Earnings for Q1 came in better than expected:

  • *INTEL 1Q REV. $16.1B, EST. $16.03B

  • *INTEL 1Q ADJ EPS 89C, EST. 87C

But things have got worse…

with the firm slashing full fiscal year revenue guidance to $69 billion (estimate was $71.34 billion)

"Results for the first quarter were slightly higher than our January expectations. We shipped a strong mix of highperformance products and continued spending discipline while ramping 10nm and managing a challenging NAND pricing environment. Looking ahead, we're taking a more cautious view of the year, although we expect market conditions to improve in the second half," said Bob Swan, Intel CEO.

"Our team is focused on expanding our market opportunity, accelerating our innovation and improving execution while evolving our culture. We aim to capitalize on key technology inflections that set us up to play a larger role in our customers’ success, while improving returns for our owners."

For the next quarter, Intel estimates $0.83 for EPS (Wall Street expected $1.01) and revenues of $15.6 billion (analysts expected $16.85 billion).

And shareholders seem to have had enough, with the stock down almost 10% after hours…

As a reminder, last quarter, Intel missed Wall Street's expectations on revenue and earnings.

SMH – the semiconductor ETF – down 1.5% after hours…





Eternal Bullishness & Willful Blindness

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their highest closings on record Tuesday, regaining ground lost in last year’s rout. Stocks have flourished under a more accommodative Federal Reserve. In January, the central bank said it would hold interest rates steady, setting in motion the stock market’s strongest first-quarter run in more than two decades, as investors dialed back up their appetite for riskier assets like stocks.

On Tuesday, the stock market hit all-time highs. 

Such should not be surprising given the rally particularly in the very heavily weighted Technology sector (XLK) and something I penned several weeks ago for our RIA PRO subscribers: (Get a 30-day FREE trial)

Currently XLK is on a “Buy” signal (bottom panel) but that signal is “crazy” extended.

However, the good news is that four sectors have broken out to all-time highs and technology is one of them. This is suggesting the overall market will break out to new highs as well.

Of course, the rise in the market since the December lows has quickly “replaced” the panic felt then with an unbridled optimism currently. As I showed this past weekend in “F.O.M.O.- The Fear Of Missing Out” and in our RIA PRO Weekly Technical Market Gauge, the bulls are back.

It isn’t just our technical gauge which suggests investors have returned to their bullish ways. The RIA PRO asset allocation composite suggests the same.

As well as numerous other data points showing investors jumping back into equities with both feet as markets approach all-time highs.

A recent survey from Ally Invest showed much the same:

“The bullish sentiment by investors, which doubled between Q1 and Q2 of this year, appears, in part, supported by the majority of respondents’ belief that interest rates will remain unchanged this year (67%) and the government will sign economic trade agreements that will help drive the markets higher (61%).

Other major market drivers cited by respondents include positive year-over-year earnings (26%),


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Albert Edwards: How To Determine If The Market Is Wrong

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It's a dead horse that has been beaten to a bloody pulp, but that doesn't stop SocGen's resident "permabear" Albert Edwards from listing what he believes are the two main reasons for the market's "miraculous", and record, rebound from the Christmas Eve "bear market" lows: 1) the abrupt U-turn in Fed policy reducing fears of an imminent US recession, and 2) a similar easing of Chinese monetary conditions resulting in a firming up in their economic data.

But, Edwards asks in his traditionally skeptical voice, "what happens if the market is wrong in presuming that monetary easing will bring about a rebound in the economic data? What happens if, as the savvy David Rosenberg believes, the Fed has overdone the tightening cycle and the economy is already headed into recession?"

To answer that rhetorical question, Edwards looks at recent recessions.

First, the SocGen strategist echoes what we showed several months ago, pointing out that equities always rally after the final Fed tightening, even when it later becomes clear that the Fed has tightened too much and recession looms. That said, the endgame is far less rosy, because despite the equity rally, the odds of a soft landing are not good since the last 13 Fed tightening cycles have ended in 10 recessions and/or financial crises.

As Edwards highlights, the experience of the last two recessions in 2008…

… and 2001…

… shows equities peaking after the end of the tightening cycle.

Edwards next makes a key point that we have repeatedly stated previously when focusing on the hypocrisy of the permabulls who say to always buy… just forget to advise when it's time to sell:

"Traditionally the equity market rallies after the final rate hike and any rally should be sold into if you believe the economy is headed into recession. The problem is that no-one ever forecasts imminent recessions. The closely followed BAML Global Fund Manager Survey shows that in April 70% of investors surveyed expect a global recession to start in H2 2020 or later and most shocking, 86%


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“Why We Melted Up” In Charts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following a sharp drop at the open, equities have not only regained all of today's losses but are once again in record high territory, despite the overnight FX quake which saw the central banks of Japan, Sweden and Turkey all try to hammer their currencies, while the won and yuan both tumbled as the dollar surge, a manifestation of a worldwide dollar shortage according to some, accelerates, while interest rate volatility is once again on the way up.

What is behind this relentless bid in stocks? At the macro level, the answer is two-fold; first, and courtesy of the WSJ, earlier this week speculation spread that Fed the may "pre-emptively" cut rates by the end of the year in order to stimulate core Inflation and "more generically" keep events from abroad from pushing the US into Recession; the second reason is the "better than we feared" earnings from Tech/Growth giants (FB, MSFT, V, PYPL, CMG) which as Nomura's Charlie McElligott writes have stabilized the recent Growth & Momentum “Slow-flation April Unwind” vs unloved Cyclicals/Value, which had been exploding following the multi-week “repricing of growth higher” phenomenon

On the other hand, and working against the rally, is what we reported on Sunday, namely that last Friday's Chinese Politburo comments (and ensuing Reuters piece on “RRR cuts to sidelines”) as a hawkish shift away from "broad easing”, and taking some of the "easy money" off the table, especially in China where stocks have suffered their worst weekly drop of the year.

Yet while this mornings' disastrous earnings fom MMM spooked traders due to the dismal cross-read on global growth in the second half, with UPS also missing wildly, the melt up has return in full force, so we take this opportunity to publish this visual reminder courtesy of Nomura's Charlie McElligott "why we melted up"… and why we continue to melt up.

EPFR Global Equities and Bond Fund Flows Year-To-Date ($Billions)--$91B “out” of Global Equities, $120B “into” Global Bonds:

Source: EPFR

Equities L/S Hedge Fund Beta to S&P 500—just 1st %ile since 2003:

Source: Nomura

Macro Hedge Fund Beta to S&P 500—just 25th
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North Korea Demanded Washington Pay $2 Million Bill For Otto Warmbier’s Medical Care

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Washington Post just cast doubt on President Trump's assertion that Kim Jong Un was unaware of American college student Otto Warmbier's brutal treatment at the hands of the North Korean state by revealing that the US officials who negotiated for Warmbier's release were presented with a $2 million bill for his medical care.

In a report that seems suspiciously ill-timed (hitting just hours after Kim wrapped up his first summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin), WaPo reported that the North wouldn't release Warmbier until the negotiators had signed a document promising to pay for his medical care, which they were instructed to sign by President Trump, who had discussed it with former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

Warmbier's detention in an exclusive state hospital reserved for foreign patients, the presence of the massive bill, and the quality of care the young man received – which an American doctor begrudgingly admitted was "excellent" – all suggest that Kim likely knew about Warmbier's case, and had probably been following it closely.

Warm

Once it arrived in the US, the bill was forward to the Treasury Department, where it remained unpaid through 2017. It's unclear whether the administration paid it, though however it was handled, the fact that Trump has now held two summits with Kim suggests that the issue has been settled.

Warmbier's family speculated that the bill might have been intended as a ransom. The White House refused to comment on the story.

The bill went to the Treasury Department, where it remained  unpaid – throughout 2017, the people said. However, it is unclear whether the Trump administration later paid the bill, or whether it came up during preparations for Trump’s two summits with Kim Jong Un.

The White House declined to comment. “We do not comment on hostage negotiations, which is why they have been so successful during this administration,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders wrote in an email.

Warmbier, who was a 21, fell into a coma for unknown reasons the night he was sentenced to 15 years in prison with hard labor in March 2016.

He was convicted on charges stemming from pulling


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Zero Hedge

Peak Globalism: Slowdown In Number Of International Students Choosing Chinese Schools

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

China’s Ministry of Education reports that total foreign enrollment in the country reached almost half a million international students in 2018. This figure represents a 0.62% rise in 2017 enrollment data, furthermore points to a collapse in growth when compared to double-digit increases observed in the last decade. ...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley: Ford's Beat Should Help Improve Access To Capital

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) far exceeded first-quarter expectations. Its 44-cent bottom line beat a 26-cent estimate, with $37.24 billion in automotive revenue surging past a $37.08 billion forecast.

The automaker earned praise from even the most cautious...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar - 04-24-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics

00:04:59 - Money Talk Portfolio
00:33:34 - IBM
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00:51:42 - MJ ETF
00:57:17 - Top 10 NASDAQ 1999
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01:08:55 - MU
01:09:03 - WPM
01:12:53 - UNG | Natural Gas
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01:24:18 - Petroleum Status Report
01:28:53 - Manufacturing Jobs | Oils | Iran
01:31:32 - IPO on Beef
01:34:50 - Disney
 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we...



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Biotech

No cure for Alzheimer's disease in my lifetime

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

No cure for Alzheimer's disease in my lifetime

In most cases, scientists are still unsure of what causes Alzheimer’s disease. FGC / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Norman A. Paradis, Dartmouth College

Biogen recently announced that it was abandoning its late stage drug for Alzheimer’s, ...



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Chart School

Trump China trade deal currency component

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The coming Trump trade deal could have an interesting component effecting the US dollar.

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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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