Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Monday Market Mayhem – Viral Outbreak Infects Global Markets

Image result for spanish flu animated gifGlobal markets are down more than 1%.

Chinese markets are closed for the holidays or they would be down too as about 3,000 people are now infected by the coronavirus and it was 1,000 when I warned about it on Thursday so we're close to 50% daily increases in infections and we still aren't clear on the incubation period of the virus and we have no treatment for it either.  That is, as we say in the medical community – NOT GOOD!  

Unfortunately, the breakout is imitating the pattern of the Spanish Flu (influenza), which devastated the planet, ultimately infecting 500M people and killing 25M (5%) of them in 1918.  Even with our much more modern medicines, the death rate on the coronavirus is at 3% but modern medicine comes at a price and hospitalizations quickly run into thousands of Dollars and even if 500M people can be treated for $2,000 (mostly not in hospital, of course), we're talking about $1Tn of emergency aid required (1% of Global GDP) - plus money that needs to be allocated to prevention, education and support.  

Members of a military medical team were deployed to Wuhan on Sunday.

Do you have an extra $1,000,000,000,000 set aside in case of emergency?  We'll find out who does and who doesn't as China has already pledged $9Bn to help contain the virus and, if you do the math, that's $3,000 per infected patient in a country where health care costs are 1/4 of what we spend in the US.  Let's hope the infections level off soon but there's not likely to be a quick fix to this thing and, even in the best case, China is shut down for 2 weeks and that's going to hit the GDP for about $400Bn (2.8%) – so the effect on Global Markets will be lingering.

Speaking of $400 (M in this case) – it turns out Trump DID specifically and directly tell John Bolton, way back in August, that he was withholding military aid to the Ukraine unless they agreed to investigate Joe Biden.  Since Trump's own lawyers have said that the only way he should be impeached is if you could directly tie…
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PhilStockWorld January Portfolio Review

 

I'm going to work on this during the day, just a placeholder for now.  

 

 





Coronavirus Kills Man In Shanghai As China Confirms Nearly 2,000 Cases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary

  • First nCoV death reported in Shanghai
  • South Korea confirms third case
  • Toronto health officials to announce first 'presumptive case' of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)
  • 18 Chinese cities – 56 million people – quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'
  • US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
  • Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with nCoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
  • The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
  • The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
  • China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
  • Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
  • Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
  • 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus

* * *

Update (1934): Let the scapegoating begin.

Whispers about the top brass in Beijing and their displeasure with the local authorities on the ground in Wuhan have been circulating for at least a day. Now, the South China Morning Post has confirmed that President Xi is planning to throw local health officials under the bus.

In order for it to look like China's leaders were simply caving to the public's demands, doctors and the state-controlled press have lined up to criticize Wuhan's top brass for not foreseeing and moving to prevent the severe shortages of supplies, workers and space that is now prompting China to build two massive hospitals in the span of 10 days. Doctors and journalists on the scene in Wuhan are calling for the local leaders – who were not named in the SCMP story – to "immediately step down".

It's early


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U.S. Prepares Emergency Evacuation Of Americans From Epidemic Stricken Chinese City

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (11:54 am EST.): Yesterday it was the U.S. and Russia arranging charter flights to evacuate their citizens from the epidemic-stricken Chinese city of Wuhan. 

Now Thailand has four Lockheed C-130 Hercules transport planes on standby to airlift its citizens from the city as the coronavirus outbreak spreads uncontrollably, reported the Bangkok Post.  

Royal Thai Air Force Chief Maanat Wongwat told the Post that four C-130s, carrying medical teams, students, and medical professionals, are ready to take off from the Chinese city. 

"The air force is ready" to evacuate its citizens, Wongwat said. 

Evacuations from the city are already underway for the U.S., France, and Japan, as confirmed cases in China could exceed over 3,000 by the end of the weekend

Thailand's evacuation plan also comes as a quarter-million people across China could be infected with the deadly disease in the next several weeks. 

At the moment, four countries have initiated evacuation plans for their citizens trapped in Wuhan. 

* * * 

A new report from The Wall Street Journal indicates the U.S. government is preparing an emergency charter flight to evacuate Americans from the epidemic-stricken Chinese city of Wuhan. 

The operation comes after the death toll jumped 60% on Friday night to 41, with more than 1,400 confirmed infections. 

China has restricted travel for 46 million people across 16 cities as the death toll surges, and the spread becomes uncontrollable. 

New cases were also reported in Europe and Australia on Friday night. 

In the U.S., there are 63 suspected cases, with at least three confirmed, with two reported so far in Illinois and California, and two suspected in Minnesota.

The Journal said about 1,000 Americans reside in Wuhan, but the official number has yet to be confirmed. 

U.S. officials have contacted known Americans in the region with an offer for a seat on a Boeing 767 jet that holds approximately 230 people. 

Confirmed passengers already include diplomats from the U.S. Consulate Wuhan as


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“Extraordinary Oddity” - Half Of All Manhattan’s New Luxury Condos Sit Unsold 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Nancy Packes Inc., an online real estate data services covering the five boroughs of New York City and all residential transactions, reports that nearly half of all new condo units built after 2015 in Manhattan, or about 3,695 of 7,727 apartments, remain unsold.

Despite trillions of dollars printed by global central banks and hundreds of rate cuts since 2015 – Manhattan condos have been unappealing to the wealthy elite and unaffordable to the typical New Yorker.

Also, a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, as well as SALT deduction caps and transfer taxes, cooled the market even further

"The extraordinary oddity of the current cycle is that the real estate market has decoupled from the national economy and local economy, where job growth has been steady, and stock market values have been reaching new highs," according to the report.

As it turns out, the stock market isn't the real economy. Developers hooked on low-interest rates overbuilt across the borough with the average sale price more than doubling since 2011. 

The report warned about the luxury condo glut with limited buyers willing to purchase homes at prices that have far outpaced wages. 

There's even a shadow inventory that lurks on the sidelines, with any market improvement, developers will dispose units into the market – this could produce overhead resistance for years to come.

"You never had this kind of supply in these price ranges," Gary Barnett, the president and founder of Extell Development, who builds luxury condos in the city, told The New York Times.

"The $5 million to $10 million market is hammered — there's way too much of it," Barnett warned. He said developers are now starting to realize the market is oversaturated with limited buyers at these high prices. 

The Atlantic notes that developers bet huge on Russian oligarchs, Chinese moguls, Saudi royalty, and Latin American millionaires to soak up the luxury condo supply. 

"But the Chinese economy slowed, while declining oil prices dampened the demand for pieds-à-terre among Russian and Middle Eastern zillionaires," The Atlantic said.

With immigration trends lower, a stronger dollar, protectionism,


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Third Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In California As Wuhan Mayor Expects “1000 Or So” New Cases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (0950ET): As the world is on edge with the rise of the number of officially reported coronavirus infections (and deaths), the mayor of Wuhan said Sunday that he expects news cases to jump by 1,000. 

Mayor Zhou Xianwang told Reuters and other journalists in a briefing that Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, could soon report an additional 1,000 new cases, that would push total cases across Mainland China to about 3,000. 

Xianwang said the city is constructing several new hospitals to deal with infected patients. 

He said the city had received new supplies on protective gear such as biological suits, masks, and glasses, which have been in short supply

If Xianwang is correct about the increase of new cases, this could mean by the end of Sunday, a total of 3,000 cases could be confirmed across the world, and suggest that Jonathan Read’s model of 250 thousand infected in the next several weeks could become a reality. 

* * *

Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday's tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from…
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“You’re Screwing Us” – Warren Defends Plan To Cancel Student Debt After Father Confronted Her In Iowa

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) defended her plan to pay off college loans after being confronted by a father in Iowa in an exchange that went viral.

The father approached Warren, a leading Democratic presidential contender, after a campaign event in Grimes.

“My daughter’s getting out of school, I saved all my money, so she doesn’t have any student debt. Am I going to get my money back?” the man asked Warren.

“Of course not,” Warren replied.

So, we end up paying for people who didn’t save any money, then those who did the right thing get screwed,” the father told her.

He then described a friend who makes more money but didn’t save up while he worked double shifts to save up to pay for his daughter’s college.

The father became upset, accusing Warren of laughing.

“We did the right thing and we get screwed,” he added before walking off.

In an appearance on “CBS This Morning” on Friday, Warren was asked about the exchange.

“Look, we build a future going forward by making it better. By that same logic what would we have done? Not started Social Security because we didn’t start it last week for you or last month for you,” Warren said.

Pressed on whether she was saying “tough luck” to people like the father, she said “No.” She then recounted how she got to go to college despite coming from a poor family.

“There


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Will Coronavirus Crater Hopes Of A Global Recovery As World Trade Tumbles?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The global economy is faced with a synchronized slowdown as central bank ammunition to fight the next global recession is limited. 

Monetary authorities across the world have slashed interest rates 80 times over the last 12 months and printed upwards of $1 trillion over four months to counter the slowdown. 

The only apparent solution central bankers have offered is a liquidity-fueled massive stock market melt-up across the world that rivals the end years of the Dot Com bubble (and the liquidity-fueled meltup around Y2K). These unelected officials have also provided forward guidance on how an epic V-shape recovery in the real economy is imminent. 

The only problem today that market watchers like ourselves have noticed – is that traditional monetary policy has had a challenging time stimulating growth in developed and emerging economies. 

Data from Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) showed Friday that global trade volume continued to contract in November, marking one of the most extended stretches of negative growth since the end of the financial crisis. 

According to CPB, world trade slipped 0.60% in November over the prior quarter and was down 1.1% compared to the same month a year ago. 

November was the sixth month of straight of declines on a Y/Y basis, the longest stretch since right after the 2008 financial crisis. 

World trade has dropped sharply from 3.4% in November 2018.

However, there was some good news; the rate of contraction has slowed from a -2% pace seen in October, which was the quickest rate of decline since a decade ago. 

And while hope is high that the so-called 'trade deal' will lift all boats, data shows that the global economy has continued slowing into 2020 as the Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index has crashed 70% in the last four months, the biggest down moves since 2008.

Additionally, earlier this week, the IMF downgraded its forecast for global GDP for 2020 and 2021, its sixth straight reduction, although


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Why Germany Is Going To War With Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Richard Mills via SafeHaven.com,

Owning gold is a way to get out of this “debt trap”, but governments don’t want you to own gold, especially in Germany

Germans, like Indians and Chinese, love their gold – although their reasons for buying and keeping bullion are somewhat different. 

In China and India, gold jewelry is a status symbol – a sign of wealth and success. In Germany, owning gold bars and coins, maybe a 24-karat necklace or two, is a means of preserving wealth, especially in times of war or economic crisis, something never far from Germans’ minds, considering their history.  

Indeed the “war guilt” Germans experience over the atrocities of Nazi Germany is accompanied by fears that their government could again lose control of fiat money, as the Weimar Republic did in the 1920s, leading to devastating hyper-inflation. 

In India “a marriage is not a marriage without gold.” Indians find it auspicious to be-gift gold jewelry during the Diwali festival, which begins in October, and wedding season. Gold-shopping for the bride is thought to bring good fortune and invoke the blessings of a Hindu goddess. At nearly 20 million weddings a year, Indians’ annual demand for the precious metal exceeds 514 tonnes. Easy to see why the country’s private gold holdings are the largest in the world, a mind-boggling 24,000 tonnes. (almost as much as the world’s top 10 central bank holdings combined)

However in 2016 China overtook India as the world’s top buyer of gold jewelry. The country’s growing throng of affluent consumers is driving demand for gold rings, bracelets and necklaces, especially in January and February when many Chinese purchase gold jewelry as gifts for Chinese New Year. According to McKinsey & Company, by 2025 China will represent up to 44% of the global luxury jewelry market

While the populations of China and India are known for liking physical gold, Germany flies under the radar. An astounding +26 million Germans have investments in gold bars and coins. In fact far more Germans have savings in physical gold than in the stock market – a statistic hard to imagine in the United States or


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New Research Casts Doubt Coronavirus Epidemic Started At Wuhan Food Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Although practically all of the western media reports from the city of Wuhan have claimed that the city's hospitals have been completely overwhelmed by cases of pneumonia as more cases of the Wuhan coronavirus are confirmed, the South China Morning Post reports that a team of researchers at Wuhan’s Jinyintan hospital have retraced the movements of the first individual who was diagnosed with the virus, and determined that he had no links to a shady seafood market selling live snakes and bats for human consumption.

Amazingly, SCMP caveated its report by claiming that other patients among the earliest cases had "continuous exposure to the market," which was shut down on Jan. 1 by Wuhan authorities over fears that its trade in wild animals was linked to the viral outbreak. Authorities have since banned the selling of live animals at markets.

The researchers, seven of whom work at Wuhan’s Jinyintan hospital, designated for patients with the illness, revealed on Friday in The Lancet medical journal that symptoms of the new disease were first reported on December 1 – much earlier than the Wuhan government’s initial announcement on December 31 of 27 cases of the pneumonia-like infection.

According to the report, the first patient had no exposure to the Huanan seafood market which was shut down on January 1 over fears – later confirmed – that the new virus was linked to its trade in wild animals. The researchers added that none of the patient’s family had developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. There was also no epidemiological link between the first patient and the later cases, they found.

The researchers analysed data from 41 patients with confirmed infections who had showed an onset of symptoms up to January 2. Six of those patients died, putting the fatality rate of the group at 15 per cent. The researchers noted that clinical presentations of the patients greatly resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome.

The first patient to die from the new coronavirus had continuous exposure to the market before he was admitted to hospital with a seven-day history of fever, cough and breathing difficulties, according to their report.

Doctors also


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Zero Hedge

Coronavirus Kills Man In Shanghai As China Confirms Nearly 2,000 Cases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary
  • First nCoV death reported in Shanghai
  • South Korea confirms third case
  • Toronto health officials to announce first 'presumptive case' of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)
  • 18 Chinese cities - 56 million people - quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'
  • US and Russia plan...


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Phil's Favorites

Preparing For Lower Returns

 

Preparing For Lower Returns

Courtesy of 

We’ve been hearing about the prospect of lower future returns for U.S. based investors for years now*. The thesis behind this is fairly straightforward; high recent returns coupled with high valuations in the stock market, and low interest rates in the bond market is not conducive to further above average returns.

Consider the following:

  • A U.S. only 60/40 portfolio has compounded at 10.5% over the last 10 years.
  • The CAPE ratio is at 30.9
  • The ten-year treasury is currently yielding 1.8%

...



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Chart School

Top Patterns for Retail Investors

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Retail investors are last in line for market leading research, no matter, the retail investor can profit from these secret sauce patterns..

Well not so secret now, the main point is you do not have to climb Mount Everest to be called a mountain climber, there are many other hills to climb to make your mark. Just like stocks.

You do not have to battle with the high frequency traders to win in the markets, there are long and slow methods to do just as well.  

More from RTT Tv







Some charts from the video


...

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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Insider Scoop

5 Software-Application Stocks Moving In Thursday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Atlassian Corporation, Inc. (NASDAQ:TEAM) stock surged 9.7% to $145.50 during Thursday's after-market session. According to the most recent rating by Morgan Stanley, on January 13, the current rating is at Overweight.

Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (NYSE:DBD) shares increased by 8.1% to $11.48. The most recent rating by DA Davidson, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $17.00.

Telaria, Inc. (NYSE:TLRA) stock rose 4...



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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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