Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Nearly Half Of US Consumers Report Their Incomes Don’t Cover Their Expenses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Low-income consumers are struggling to make ends meet despite the "greatest economy ever," and if a recession strikes or the employment cycle continues to decelerate — this could mean the average American with insurmountable debts will likely fall behind on their debt servicing payments, according to a UBS report, first reported by Bloomberg

UBS analyst Matthew Mish wrote in a recent report that 44% of consumers don't make enough money to cover their expenses.

The new survey asked 2,100 respondents in the US about their current financial situation, at least 40% of the respondents said they experienced a credit problem, if that was a rejection of a credit card or a missing payment, or perhaps defaulting on a balance that was due, this was a 3 percentage-point increase from last year, the survey found. 

Mish has written before that lower-income consumers have seen very little net worth improvement in the last decade. They've increased their debt burdens significantly through credit cards, auto loans, and student debt

As the federal funds rate drops, consumers are being squeezed by record-high credit card rates.

Given the high leverage of lower-income consumers, the next cyclical downshift in the consumer credit cycle could be much worse than the Dot Com bust, Mish noted in July.

Mish writes in the current report that there are no signs, as of yet, of an imminent downturn in the consumer credit cycle. 

The analyst wrote that the UBS indicator that determines if consumer credit is turning stood at .10 through late September. High scores of the index are often associated with deteriorating consumer health, in 2001 and 2007 recessions, the indicator was approximately .70.  

Mish said in the last six months, only 17% of consumers reported an improvement in their financial well-being. 

As we've noted in the last several months, successful transmission of weakness from a manufacturing recession has filtered into services and employment. This means that the economic slowdown in the US has already broadened, now affecting consumers, and will lead to waning consumer health in the late year — just in time for the holiday season. 


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Pennsylvania School District Votes To Replace Locker Rooms With $2.4 Million Gender-Neutral Facilities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Gone are the days of boys fantasizing about sneaking into the girls locker room, at least in Eastern Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. 

That's because the Eastern Lancaster County School District voted this past week to create non-gender specific facilities instead of traditional gender-specific locker rooms, according to Fox 29. The policy was unanimously passed on the first student day of the 2019-2020 school year.

The $2.4 million plan for Garden Spot High School will include four "zones" that hold a total of 48 changing rooms and 76 private showers. The showers can also double as changing rooms, since they will be private, making a total of 124 total changing rooms. 

The Board commented: “This District policy states that multi-user locker rooms and restrooms will be separated based on biological sex. But the idea behind the policy is much deeper. We’ve worked hard to arrive at a solution that balances varied interests – which is why we’re systematically converting multi-user facilities into a series of single-user facilities.” 

Starting this year, there are also 13 single-user restrooms being made available to students. 

“ELANCO prides itself in not simply providing reasonable accommodations to those who need them, but going above and beyond to provide extraordinary accommodations for all its students,” the board continued. 

The restrooms only mark a first step in a "much larger inclusivity initiative" that will include specified classrooms for teams to meet during competition, when they would normally meet in a locker room. We're sure those classrooms will smell terrific the next day. 

The rooms "will have entry points in public areas of schools so that any student, regardless of assigned sex and gender identity can access them."

Also, athletes will no longer be able to change in these rooms. The Board stated: “Because nobody will change in any classroom, including these team classrooms, both sexes can be present. This really helps, for instance, when we have a girls’ team coached by a male, or vice versa.”

The initiative comes after backlash last year when the Board allowed a transgender boy to use the boys' restroom and locker room during gym class. 

The Board said: “To be absolutely clear, we seek


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Thai Airways Boeing 777 Suffers “Uncontained Engine Failure” In Bangkok

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Several flight monitoring blogs, including Air LiveFlyerTalk, and Simply Flying, have reported that a Thai Air Boeing 777-300ER suffered an "uncontained failure" of its left engine while taking off at Suvarnabhumi Airport, also known as Bangkok Airport (BKK). 

The incident occurred on Sunday afternoon on runway 01L at BKK. 

Air Live said the left engine, a General Electric GE90 turbofan engine, suffered catastrophic damage upon takeoff.

Flight data via Flight Trader 24, showed the aircraft hit speeds above 50 mph at the time the engine failed. 

The takeoff was quickly aborted at the halfway point of the runway. 

Takeoff speeds for a 777-300ER are between 165 to 215 mph, which means if the left engine failed at higher speeds, or at the point of lift, this could have been another massive disaster for Boeing. 

About one minute after the engine failed, the plane made a complete stop on the shoulder of the runway, where passengers and crew exited the plane.

FlyerTalk user SPK posted an image of the engine. The user said:

"B777-300ER HS-TKL "Sunanda" ("???????") returned to Suvarnabhumi shortly after taking off due to engine failure.

TG arranged a replacement flight TG970D, using HS-TKK, leaving BKK at 1PM, a 12-hour delay, and arrived ZRH at 7:08PM. This will cause TG971 to be delayed by around 9-10 hours.

The damage on HS-TKL's engine seems to require lots of repair (photo from my friend who was on the flight)."

Judging by the photo, it appears the engine exploded outward and to the side. This means the malfunction was likely due to a rear turbine section.

Another user of FlyerTalk "cleaned the picture up a little," which shows the extent of the damage.  

Airfleets.net said the airplane is 7.1 years old and was delivered to Thai Air in late October 2012. 

Passengers on board were headed to Zurich, and as a result of the engine blowing up on takeoff, a 12-hour delay was seen. 

 

 





Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year. History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises.  It appears in 2019 is no different. Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.

We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials. In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total
size. Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior
to 2015.

Daily YM Chart

This Daily YM chart highlights the trading range that has setup over the past 5+ months with the YELLOW LEVELS.  Price continues to tighten into a more narrow range as we progress towards the end of 2019.  Our researchers believe a moderate price breakdown will occur near the apex of this move which will act as a “price reversion event” and allow the markets to rally into 2020 and beyond.  We are using our proprietary price modeling tools to attempt to identify any signs that can help us validate this research.  Until we have some type of validation of the move, we can only wait as the risks associated with taking trades at this time are much higher than normal.

The SP500 cycle analysis I did last week provides some solid forward-looking direction as well.


TRAN – Transportation Index

The TRAN (Transportation Index) is also confirming our analysis of a sideways price range with very little opportunity at the moment for a high-risk trade.  The TRAN gapped higher on October 21 which may set up a massive top pattern formation, possibly a Three River Evening Star…
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PG&E Would Be Bought And Converted To Public-Owned Utility Under California Mayor’s Plan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

San Jose, California is proposing that PG&E should be bought and converted into the country's largest customer-owned utility amid mass-blackouts and heightened tempers over their role in the state's wildfires, according to the Wall Street Journal

San Jose is the third largest city in California and PG&E's largest customer.

According to the Journal, Mayor Sam Liccardo hopes in the coming weeks to convince other cities to join the buyout proposal, which would change the utility's investor-owned status to a nonprofit electric-and-gas cooperative. 

The buyout proposal amounts to a revolt by some of PG&E’s roughly 16 million customers as the company struggles to keep the lights on and provide basic services while preventing its aging electric equipment from sparking wildfires.

San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo said in an interview that the time has come for the people dependent on PG&E for essential services to propose a new direction. A cooperative, he said, would create a utility better able to meet customers’ needs because it would be owned by customers—and answerable to them. -Wall Street Journal

In other words, Liccardo thinks a coalition of California officials can do it better. 

"This is a crisis begging for a better solution than what PG&E customers see being considered today," Liccardo told the Journal, saying of the recent Venezuela-tier power shut-offs, "I've seen better organized riots.

Faced with more than $30 billion in wildfire-related liabilities, PG&E sought chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January. The will likely oppose the proposal as they explore how to emerge from bankruptcy, compensate fire victims, and modernize their infrastructure (for which they passed along a giant $2 billion rate hike to their customers last December). 

California officials are running out of patience with PG&E after the company shut off power to roughly two million Californians in 34 counties earlier this month to ensure that its power lines, transformers and fuses didn’t ignite fires that could spread quickly amid warnings of high winds. PG&E warned Monday that winds could trigger another round of shut-offs for parts of 17 counties later this week.

PG&E may have accidentally galvanized support for the public buyout proposal last week when Chief Executive Bill Johnson told state


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Adam Neumann To Be Paid Another $200 Million To Leave WeWork’s Board

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Earlier when we reported that Japan's SoftBank, already its largest investor, has offered a $5 billion debt-funded bailout package to WeWork as well as a tender offer of up to $3 billion to buy out existing shareholders in the struggling office subletting company, we pointed out the patently absurd: instead of seeing the roughly $700 million in cash he had already siphoned out of WeWork clawed back (or, better yet, facing the authorities for his immaculate con job), the company's former Chairman and CEO, Adam Neumann, was about to be rewarded with even more cash.

And now we know just how big the reward will be: according to Axios, Neumann will receive "around $200 million to leave the board of directors, give up his voting shares and support SoftBank's takeover."

Why is Neumann getting paid even more money after his disastrous attempt to take the company public and effectively blowing up the IPO market for "growth" companies? Because as part of the deal, SoftBank Corp. (not the SoftBank Vision Fund) will offer a $3 billion tender offer to employees at $20 a share, cutting the company's valuation from $47 billion to less than $8 billion.

As part of its bailout plan to throw even more money down the drain and avoid a total wipeout on its investment, the Japanese conglomerate would also accelerate a $1.5 billion equity investment in the company – scheduled for next year – and SoftBank Chief Operating Officer Marcelo Claure will take over as chairman of the startup.

But at the end of the day, all that matters as Axios correctly puts it, is Neumann's 10 votes per share, "which are the only ones that matter", and which will require an additional $200 million to be purchased to make SoftBank the controlling shareholder.

SoftBank's bailout offer comes as WeWork prepares to lay off thousands to…
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Here’s A Comprehensive Solution For All Chicago School Financial Problems And The Teacher Strike

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Mark Glennon via Wirepoints.org,

How could Chicago Public Schools get a fresh restart, fix its pension crisis, cut its debt, void bad contracts and end the teacher’s strike?

The same way Michigan did for Detroit schools. It’s called “reconstitution” and it’s a regular process in the private sector, often called “oldco/newco.” It would have all the benefits of a bankruptcy reorganization, though a formal bankruptcy might not even be needed.

It would go something like this:

  • Create a new entity, or perhaps several of them, to run the schools.

  • Redirect to the new entity taxes and other funding now going to CPS. Transfer needed assets to the new system. Put the old CPS in a Chapter 9 bankruptcy, if necessary.

  • Freeze the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund and, instead, begin funding a new, affordable retirement plan.

  • Terminate all CPS employees and rehire the good ones on terms affordable for the city.

We wrote about the option for CPS in 2015. The Wall Street Journal wrote later about its application in Detroit’s schools and its potential for Chicago:

“The district would avoid declaring bankruptcy by using an ‘oldco/newco’ model similar to GM’s. School operations would be transferred to a new debt-free district.”

The Detroit Free Press reported the opening of that city’s new school district in July 2016. We also wrote here about why the option is actually better suited for Chicago than it was for Detroit.

GM did the same thing in its bankruptcy. The GM you know today is actually a new company formed in 2009 to take over assets of the old, insolvent GM.

Reconstituting CPS would require state legislation as well as the city’s cooperation. That legislation could also include changes to the collective bargaining process to ensure there’s no repeat of the Chicago Teachers Union’s impossible demands. Currently, those laws are stacked in favor of CTU and are out of line with other states, especially our neighboring states, as we described here.

To nobody’s surprise, Illinois politicians have never considered the option


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Arrogance destroyed the World Trade Organisation. What replaces it will be even worse

 

Arrogance destroyed the World Trade Organisation. What replaces it will be even worse

As the public face of globalism, the WTO mobilised protesters. It’ll be replaced by the law of the jungle. fuzheado/Flikr, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of John Quiggin, The University of Queensland

In line with his usual practice, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison has backed Donald Trump over the World Trade Organisation, criticising of China’s status in it as a “developing country”.

Critics of the intervention have pointed out that being a “developing country” doesn’t provide China with many benefit, and that Australia would be better off not taking sides.

But the debate, to use the cliché, is like arguing about the deck chairs on the Titanic.

In the absence of a surprising reversal from Trump, the World Trade Organisation will cease to exist as it has been in a matter of weeks.

More likely than not, it will never be revived.

The demise has been a long time coming.

Higher than heaven…

The WTO was established to replace the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade at the end of the long Uruguay round of trade talks in 1995.

Its establishment coincided with the peak of market liberal triumphalism, exemplified by such books as Fukuyama’s The End of History and Thomas Friedman’s The Lexus and the Olive Tree.

It embraced the hubris of the times.

Its mission, according to one of its director-generals Renato Ruggiero, was “writing the constitution of a single global economy”.

In that context it felt free to override national governments on any issue that might affect international trade, most notably environmental policies.

Most famously, the WTO overrode US laws that required tuna and shrimp sold in the US (whether by US firms or importers) to follow practices that protected dolphins and turtles in decisions that were eventually reversed.

Unsurprisingly, it became a symbol of the way democratic governments were becoming powerless to resist the forces of the global economy. Popular resistance, including demonstrations and riots, boiled over at the 1999 WTO…
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China Millionaires Outnumber Rich Americans For First Time: Credit Suisse

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As wealth inequalities soar across the world and a trade war rages on between the US and China, a stunning report by Credit Suisse says the number of millionaires in China has, for the first time, surpassed the number of wealthy Americans.

Credit Suisse published the new report in its annual Global Wealth Report on Monday, which is the most "comprehensive and up-to-date source of information on global household wealth. "

The Swiss bank's report found 100 million Chinese were members of the global top 10% club versus 99 million Americans

"Despite the trade tension between the US and China over the past 12 months, both countries have fared strongly in wealth creation, contributing USD 3.8tn and USD 1.9tn, respectively. 

The number of millionaires has also risen globally by 1.1million to 46.8 million in 2019, collectively owning USD 158.3 trillion or 44% of the global total.

 China and other emerging markets have contributed significantly to this growing contingent and show signs of progress and opportunity for investors," stated Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe, global head of economics and research at Credit Suisse.

A seismic shift is underway, one where the number of wealthy American consumers, who powered the global economy for decades, is starting to fade. 

The report offered some insight into the slump of wealthy Americans, as we tend to believe it could be due to demographics issues. 

While US population growth hits an 80-year low, unleashing demographic stagnation, leading to a dismal economic recovery, China's population isn't expected to stop growing until 2030, indicating that the Asian economy will continue to be somewhat more robust for the next decade. 

It's likely that China's upper-middle-class and wealthy families, currently has more millionaires than the US, will be a crucial driver for global consumption in the 2020s and beyond. 

Anthony Shorrocks, a British development economist and author of the report, suggested that after the 2008 financial crisis, China replaced the US as the world's global growth engine of wealth creation, which maybe explains why more millionaires are being produced in the country. 

Shorrocks adds that the US has endured more than a decade, since the


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Boeing Drags Down Dow, Short-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

More trade deal "progress" headlines, Kudlow jawboning, Brexit deal optimism fades, continued weakness in macro data but a squeeze proves everything is awesome in stocks as the S&P is lifted back above 3000…

Chinese stocks were mixed on the day with small caps/tech on the losing side and bigger cap names leading (thanks to two buying-panics)…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets ended the day higher, led by Germany (and UK's FTSE rebounded from a weak open)…

Source: Bloomberg

While Boeing weighed down the Dow…

Small Caps and Trannies surged out of the gate and accelerated again after the EU close…

The S&P 500 once again battled with the 3,000 level as various repetitive trade progress headlines attempted to defend the Maginot Line… First close above 3k sine 9/18…

"Most Shorted" stocks were panic-squeezed at the open (and at the EU close)…

Source: Bloomberg

Boeing back at early 2018 lows…

Bank stocks continue to outperform as the yield curve steepens…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks also surged in traday… despite a drop in crude (we've seen this before)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were uniformly 3-4bps higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the longer-end of the yield curve has been trading in rather extreme short-term trends…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index was flat on the day, rebounding from some overnight weakness once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable continues to rise, tagging 1.3000 intraday (despite today's proceedings going against Johnson) – up 8 handles in 8 days

Source: Bloomberg

Silver and Gold were lower on the day (after decent gains overnight) and oil was also lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures pushed up towards $1500 itraday before falling back…

And silver popped and dropped…

WTI chopped around intraday (between $53 and $54) but ended lower…

Copper/Gold continues to track 10Y TSY yields (or vice versa) almost perfectly..

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that tech stocks continue to outperform, despite flat to falling earnings expectations…

And this is why…

But it may not be enough as Bloomberg points out that as the U.S. dollar heads for the biggest monthly decline since the trade war began, the outlook for corporate profits has started to deteriorate in America and improve in emerging markets.

Source: Bloomberg

Late breaking news was that Softback will bailout WeWork at a valuation around $7.5-8 billion…

Neumann's wealth went full  Keyser Söze.

 

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Nearly Half Of US Consumers Report Their Incomes Don't Cover Their Expenses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Low-income consumers are struggling to make ends meet despite the "greatest economy ever," and if a recession strikes or the employment cycle continues to decelerate -- this could mean the average American with insurmountable debts will likely fall behind on their debt servicing payments, according to a UBS report, first reported by Bloomberg

UBS analyst Matthew Mish wrote in a recent report that 4...



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The Technical Traders

Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year. History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises.  It appears in 2019 is no different. Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.

We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials. In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotation...



more from Tech. Traders

Phil's Favorites

Arrogance destroyed the World Trade Organisation. What replaces it will be even worse

 

Arrogance destroyed the World Trade Organisation. What replaces it will be even worse

As the public face of globalism, the WTO mobilised protesters. It’ll be replaced by the law of the jungle. fuzheado/Flikr, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of John Quiggin, The University of Queensland

In line with his usual practice, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison has backed Donald Trump over the World Trade Organisation, criticising of China’s status in it as a “developing country”.

Critics of the int...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Apple Bullish Breakout Suggesting Tech Follows In Its Path?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Apple sending a bullish message to the overall Tech market? Sure could be

Apple (AAPL) is working on a breakout above last year’s highs at (1), after creating a series of higher lows over the past year.

Tech ETF QQQ has been a similar-looking pattern to Apple over the past few months, as it is near old highs while creating higher lows.

Is Apple’s upside breakout suggesting that QQQ will follow in its footsteps and breakout?

Str...



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Insider Scoop

How Much Litigation Risk Is Priced Into Johnson & Johnson?

Courtesy of Benzinga

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) just can't seem to shake its talcum powder problems.

On Friday, Johnson & Johnson recalled 33,000 bottles of baby powder after a bottle purchased online by the FDA tested positive to asbestos.

Last year, a jury awarded a group ...



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Digital Currencies

Five hurdles blockchain faces to revolutionise banking

 

Five hurdles blockchain faces to revolutionise banking

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Markos Zachariadis, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Blockchain is touted as the next step in the digital revolution, a technology that will change every industry from music to wast...



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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

More from RTT Tv







GDX PnF chart from within the video

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Important channels around the HUI.
...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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