Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

The True Founder of our Revolution – Summing up.

 

Scientist, speaker and technology consultant, David Brin, applies his unique insights about human history to understanding current events and predicting the future. (David is, after all, known for his best-selling science fiction and one of the World’s Best Futurists.) You can find his books at his website and latest articles at his blog

 

The True Founder of our Revolution – Summing up.

Courtesy of David Brin

(Originally published on July 29, 2018)

If I seem repetitive, it's because some crucial points keep not being made, in the fight over where to steer civilization. 

Sure, moral issues — like a narcissistic toddler who steals thousands of children — belong front and center. But they cannot be the only battle front. Because confederates have been schooled to shrug aside moral arguments.

"While sappy-socialist liberals preach, we are the pragmatic competitors who innovate and invest and make America rich!" By styling themselves as defenders of enterprise and creative markets, oligarchs offer a rhetoric that attracts populist fervor from hardworking farmers and auto mechanics, who know that life is — and at some level should be — highly competitive. 

By ceding this ground to the New Lords, liberals make their worst mistake. Because liberalism is justifiable in practical terms! In the health of creative markets. In terms of measurable outcomes. In the general, rising good of all. And especially in keeping faith with the Great Experiment of Freedom…

… and one of its principal founders: Adam Smith.

A Great Rediscovery

The Financial Times (U.K.) is so vastly better than any of its largely lobotomized (or else oligarchy-suborned) U.S. equivalents. A recently published essay - How Adam Smith would fix capitalism - summons what I’ve pushed for years — a rediscovery of this co-founder — along with Franklin and those Americans — of our great, Periclean experiment. Writer Jesse Norman (a British Member of Parliament) gets Smith, showing that the author of The Theory of Moral Sentiments was a deeply caring man, who wanted a balanced use of market forces to benefit everyone, truly raising all boats.

Yes, Smith extolled the unmatched creative power of competition. But the author of The Wealth of Nations, gazed across 6000 years…
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“Keep An Eye On Gold” – Trader Sees Market Screaming “Gimme A Break Already”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Markets are screaming "gimme a break already," according to former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow, who notes that with Turkey on an extended summer holiday and Chinese equities getting a late-day boost from their friends, there has been little appetite for angst.

Breslow suggests "we should try it on for size and enjoy it while it lasts."

Via Bloomberg,

It has been a very interesting start to a week that should be dead. It feels alive and well. In a world with so much ugliness and boorish behavior it would seem that traders have started the week open to, perhaps needing, things to be calmer and more civilized. I guess no news is good news when the alternative is to be surrounded by loose cannons.

Later this week we will get the minutes from the last FOMC and ECB meetings. And of course, at the end of the week there is Jackson Hole. There is, and will be, no shortage of speculation about what will be said. Or the issues analysts would like to see addressed. The authorities would serve themselves and everyone else best by saying as little as possible. Given the clear messages we got after the recent meetings and the lack of groundbreaking hard data since then, beating a dead horse will serve little purpose. It’s fine to admit everything isn’t on auto-pilot.

Are trade wars a good thing? To some, yes. To others, obviously not. Will it help to hear oblique references that there are risks out there? If you aren’t aware of that, you have larger issues.

And what really keeps them awake at night, you won’t hear about. Markets are telling us they want some peace and quiet and policy makers should oblige. Jackson Hole has morphed into a central banker as a rock star forum. It should go back to a simpler time.

Most of us can live with a hiatus from electioneering and lobbying. Just look at today’s contained ranges and bask in the fact that no one is complaining about being bored. Try to ignore the fact that the euro rally we thought…
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The “Weakest” EIA Report In Years

Courtesy of Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com

The EIA just published one of the “weakest” weekly oil reports in years, which suggests troubled waters ahead for the global oil market.

The timing of the report is not ideal, coming amidst a currency crisis in Turkey, which has raised fears of financial contagion in other emerging markets. The strength of the dollar is putting a long list of currencies under pressure, vexing policymakers around the world. Some countries, such as Argentina, are aggressively hiking interest rates to defend their currencies (although the peso continues to fall). Others, such as Turkey, are resisting any rate hikes at all, which is clearly not a solution to capital flight and a sharp devaluation.

It is too early to tell whether or not the sudden crisis will be confined to Turkey or if it will mushroom into an emerging market conflagration that sends emerging markets – and perhaps even the global economy as a whole – into a tailspin.

These currency troubles could severely undercut global oil demand. Not only are crude oil prices close to multi-year highs, but the strength of the dollar and the relative weakness of a variety of currencies in the developing world, combine for a toxic brew to demand. Oil prices are up some 6 or 7 percent on the year, but in Turkey, imported oil is now 60 percent more expensive – the result of the meltdown in the lira.

While the specific percentages might vary from country to country, much of the world is experiencing painful increases in fuel because so many currencies are being trampled by the strength of the dollar.

The early signs of trouble to the oil market are starting to materialize. The EIA’s weekly report showed a massive 6.8-million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories.

Investment bank Standard Chartered puts out a “bull-bear index” each week, which incorporates the latest weekly data from the EIA. The index tends to seesaw back and forth, depending on whether or not inventories fell, whether production rose or fell, etc. The bank says that this past week the index was at “-100,” or the “weakest over the past five years.”

“The index tells you all you need to know, but the main detail is that


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Kevin Spacey’s Latest Film Bombs To Career-Low $618 Opening Weekend

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Scandal-plagued actor Kevin Spacey's latest film "Billionaire Boys Club" earned only $126 U.S. dollars in Friday's debut, and only $618 for the entire weekend, marking a career low for the disgraced Hollywood star.

"Billionaire Boys Club" was filmed in 2015 and released with no publicity following a premium VOD release last month. The film brought in $126 dollars on Friday from eight locations. Four additional cinemas reported Sunday earnings, putting the final estimated weekend at $618, according to those with access to grosses.

Put another way, that's a per location average of roughly $56 for the weekend. If going by the average 2018 ticket price to date of $9.27, that means about six people showed up at each theater, on average.

If the current national ticket price average of 9.27 dollars is used, that means that no more than 6 people bought tickets to see the crime drama. Billionaire Boys Club played in theaters in the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Detroit, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New Orleans, the Hartford/New Haven area, Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago, Cleveland and Sarasota, Florida

Titles that debut first on VOD aren't generally big draws at the box office, but Billionaire Boys Club is faring particularly poorly. The fate of the film was left in serious question after Spacey was accused last fall of sexual assault by a number of men in the U.S. and England. Netflix and MRC fired him from House of Cards, while Ridley Scott replaced Spacey in All the Money in the World.

Earlier this summer, distributor Vertical Entertainment said it would go ahead and release Billionaire Boys Club on VOD and in cinemas.

"We hope these distressing allegations pertaining to one person’s behavior — that were not publicly known when the film was made almost two-and-a-half years ago and from someone who has a small, supporting role in Billionaire Boys Club — does not tarnish the release of the film," Vertical said in a statement at the time. "In the end, we hope audiences make up their own minds as to the reprehensible allegations of one person’s past, but not at the expense of the entire cast and crew present on this film."


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The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio – August 20, 2018

BNN Money Talk portfolio - update 8/20/2018

We already have plenty of downside bets on our portfolios and, since Options expired on Friday, let's have a look at our hedge in the context of our public Money Talk Portfolio, which we feature on BNN's Money Talk about once a quarter.  We only make changes on the show, so it's a very low-touch portfolio and we're coming up on the one year anniversary on 9/6, as we only begin doing this one year ago but, already, the portfolio is up 86.8% from $50,000 to $93,370 as of Friday's close. 

Remember – every single trade AND adjustment was announced live, on TV, before they were made in the portfolio.  We're simply showing people how to use our Be the House – NOT the Gambler techiques and hedging strategies in real-time market situations:

We cashed out a lot of winners in July as I was too nervous about the summer markets to leave what were, as the time, $34,300 worth of gains on the table and we can't make any adjustments until the next time I'm on the show in September – so better safe than sorry…  We had $34,490 in cash at the time and, as you can see, we raised our cash holdings to $85,740 (91.8% of the portfolio's value) but we still managed to gain another $9,070 from our remaining positions in the past 30 days.  You do not need to keep a lot of cash in the market to make great gains if you know how to properly apply leverage! 

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How Does Impact Investment Drive A Social Change And Profit?

By Nathan William. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For a prolonged time, investors have been satisfied with making money. They put little thought into where the money is invested, as long as the dividends are paid and the shares are doing well. But in the last decade, there has been a paradigm shift in terms of how and where investments are made. This alternative approach to investments outs an immense emphasis on corporate social responsibility, company ethics, and it’s all about giving back something worthwhile to the society and the environment as a whole. This wave of change is known as impact investment.


Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Impact Investment

Pexels / Pixabay

Today more and more investors are choosing this alternative approach of investing money, as there has been an awakening of the collective consciousness that allows them to focus on the social and environmental causes, all the while making sure that process of revenue generation is not hampered.

The scope of impact investing can be utilized to eliminate hunger and poverty, increase the access to quality healthcare and education, maintain gender equality, and ensure justice and promote peace to name a few causes. With that being said, let’s elaborate further on how to impact investing can make a difference and at the same time drive profit for the businesses.

Promising initiatives are underway

There has been a lot of eagerness building up steadily on this unique investment approach. In fact, several of the investment management companies have been providing mutual funds that invest in environmentally, socially driven and responsible organizations. Such is the eagerness among the impact investors that they are taking a few steps ahead and looking to invest in bonds and other investment systems that directly invest in socially driven projects.

A perfect specimen of such a system in impact investing can be a microfinance loan, which helps individuals with limited access to capital start a new venture. The investors with high net worth, in particular, are finding these offerings to be promising. This is the reason why they are ready to take on some calculated risks to invest in them.

Businesses, initiated with the help of microfinance loans are offering great returns to their investors. In some cases, impact investment systems…
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Short Squeeze Begins? Treasury Yields Tumble To 1-Mo Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

August is lining up to be the best month for Treasury bonds in a year as 10Y Yields are down almost 13bps (the most since Aug 2017's 18bps drop). That could be a major problem for the record amount of speculative shorts that have piled into the 'No brainer' bond bear positioning over the last few months…

As Jeff Gundlach warned over the weekend, Treasury bets are so extreme that they’re becoming a contrarian indicator in themselves.

Massive increase this week in short positions against 10 &30 yr UST mkts. Highest for both in history, by far. Could cause quite a squeeze.

— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) August 17, 2018

As Bloomberg notes, the 10-year short surged last week to just shy of 700,000 contracts – 70% more than the previous record set in February 2017 and it exceeds the record long set in August 2007 by about 90,000. Shorts across 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries are even more unbalanced at a total of 1.61 million – that’s 80% above the previous record short and more than twice as large as the peak long.

All of which is why we wonder, with 10Y Yields tumbling once again today, whether reality is dawning on the speculators that perhaps all is not well in the economy, inflation is not about to go 'hyper', and The Fed is not going to be able to normalize (because the economy – meaning global markets – can't handle it)…

10Y Yields have erased all the BoJ-rumor spike losses and since topping 3.00% ("see, rate are going higher, bond bull market is over") have plunged to one-month lows…

As we noted previously, speculators appears to be pricing in over 50bps of yield rise over current 10Y rates – as Gundlach notes, if the market gets a safe-haven jolt (cough EM crisis cough) or growth scare (cough China cough) then this massive short position might squeeze yields dramatically lower…

The yield curve has flattened even further –…
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Canada’s Pipeline Crisis Is A Boon For Russia

Courtesy of Irina Slav, Oilprice.com

The controversy of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion projects has so far focused more on the implications of the project’s delay for Albertan crude oil producers. Yet, the developments around the pipeline also have reverberations for the U.S. refining industry and more specifically that part of it, which operates in the Pacific Northwest, a region without the luxury of many and different sources of crude to turn into fuel and other products for the local industries and households.

Canadian crude and crude from Alaska have been the traditional feedstock for Pacific Northwest refineries. Now that production is growing and so are refining rates, local operators are buying oil from Russia, which, in the political context between the U.S. and Canada, and Russia, makes for an interesting ironic twist. Yet these are the realities of life, as Stewart Muir, executive director of Canadian think tank Resource Works, writes in a recent story. If you can’t get a commodity you need from one place, you’ll have to get it from another.

Last month, Muir writes, a tanker under a Portuguese flag delivered between 600,000 bpd and 650,000 bpd of Russian crude to a refinery in Washington State, one of the two that produce fuel and oil products for Washington and Oregon. This might become a more frequent occurrence as crude oil production in Alaska steadily declines and Albertan oil sands miners cannot get their growing output to refineries because of pipeline constraints. An alternative—railway deliveries of Bakken crude—was rejected by the Washington governor who, unlike most Trans Mountain protesters, has obviously familiarized himself with the safety statistics of various crude oil delivery methods.

When market logic trumps politics, this is what happens. Refineries need feedstock. They do not deal with politics. They deal with demand and supply. And because of this, the United States has been importing Russian oil for years, as strange as this may seem in the current political situation.

Here are the facts: The U.S. began importing Russian crude in 1995. Since then, monthly deliveries have peaked at 25.083 million barrels in May 2009, with the latest monthly figure, for May this year, coming in at 15.216 million barrels, according to EIA data. This means that a little over half a million…
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Nomura: “We Are Observing A Multi-Month Performance Disaster For US Equity Funds”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Nomura's Charlie McElligott, head of cross-asset strategy

The US Dollar is again rallying into this week’s Jackson Hole meeting, with net USD longs at one year highs and against specs now short all available G10 currencies for the first time since Jan ‘17

Today’s USD move is being driven by 1) Euro weakness (again teetering around ~1.14 level) and now too 2) a modest “re-weakening” in offshore Yuan despite the PBoC overnight strengthening the reference rate by the most since Aug 2nd and a new headline stating “*PBOC SAID TO HAVE PROVIDED USD LIQUIDITY TO MARKET” via FX swap market

EU Equities outflows for the 23rd consecutive week and making -$51B OUT over the past six months, as Macro Fund beta to Eurostoxx indicates “outright capitulation” going down to the 10th %ile from 69th %ile

EM stabilizing modestly overnight:

  • China “State Fund” buying in Equities is the highlight, driving a 2% reversal over the last hour and a half of the session and turning A-shares from lows of day (and two year lows at that) to closing at session highs
  • Also boosting EM sentiment was a beat in Thai GDP which boosted broad Asian EMFX, as policy-normalization looks to be on-track
  • Euro EMFX is the overnight exception and again specifically TRY, which is modestly weaker into the local holiday week as recent restrictions on selling TRY in forwards “informally” look like nascent steps towards capital controls

U.S. Rates shows spec short positioning in TY growing again (another -$8mm/01 on the week) and now makes for the shortest TY positioning of all-time as a percentage of open interest—which to us means significant “reversal / squeeze risk,” especially as U.S. Economic Surprise Index approaches one year lows (and now negative = “missing” on average)

The multi-month performance disaster for U.S. Equities funds (primarily L/S and M/N HFs, although MFs significantly lagging index as well) which has seen “gross exposure” purged lower (see “Gross-Down” monitor below) has dictated two standout flows last week:

  • A “Beta Grab” (HF L/S beta to SPX jumps to 89th %ile from 65th %ile the prior week)
  • A re-adding of exposure to “Momentum Longs” (L/S beta to Momentum


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Doc Copper down 20%, sending a macro message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper has had a rough go of it over the past 7-years and especially of late.

Since the highs back in 2011, Doc Copper has created a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Since the lows in 2015, it has experienced a strong rally, creating a series of higher lows, as interest rates and several commodities did the same.

In June Doc Copper may have created a double top at (1), as it was testing last years highs. Since hitting 2017 highs at (1), Doc Copper has declined nearly 20% in the past 10-weeks.

The decline now has it testing potential dual support at (2).

What Doc Copper does at (2) could send an important macro message to commodities, bonds and stocks around the world! Keep a close eye on what Doc Copper does the next few weeks at (2), as it could be very important!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

 

Picture via Pixabay

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

Courtesy of Katrina Kelly-Pitou, University of Pittsburgh

The word “bitcoin” is as likely to garner feverish excitement as it is glaring criticism. The financial community sees speculative promise in the form of trade that currently has little to no regulation. Meanwhile, others argue that it’s a distraction that detracts from the overall longevity of U.S. financial institutions.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption has become a recent talking point in the debate. ...



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Digital Currencies

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

 

Picture via Pixabay

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

Courtesy of Katrina Kelly-Pitou, University of Pittsburgh

The word “bitcoin” is as likely to garner feverish excitement as it is glaring criticism. The financial community sees speculative promise in the form of trade that currently has little to no regulation. Meanwhile, others argue that it’s a distraction that detracts from the overall longevity of U.S. financial institutions.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption has become a recent talking point in the debate. ...



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Zero Hedge

"Keep An Eye On Gold" - Trader Sees Market Screaming "Gimme A Break Already"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Markets are screaming "gimme a break already," according to former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow, who notes that with Turkey on an extended summer holiday and Chinese equities getting a late-day boost from their friends, there has been little appetite for angst.

Breslow suggests "we should try it on for size and enjoy it while it lasts."

Via Bloomberg,

...



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ValueWalk

How Does Impact Investment Drive A Social Change And Profit?

By Nathan William. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For a prolonged time, investors have been satisfied with making money. They put little thought into where the money is invested, as long as the dividends are paid and the shares are doing well. But in the last decade, there has been a paradigm shift in terms of how and where investments are made. This alternative approach to investments outs an immense emphasis on corporate social responsibility, company ethics, and it’s all about giving back something worthwhile to the society and the environment as a whole. This wave of change is known as impact investment.

...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper down 20%, sending a macro message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper has had a rough go of it over the past 7-years and especially of late.

Since the highs back in 2011, Doc Copper has created a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Since the lows in 2015, it has experienced a strong rally, creating a series of higher lows, as interest rates and several commodities did the same.

In June Doc Copper may have created a double top at (1), as it was testing last years highs. Since hitting 2017 highs at (1), Doc Copper has declined nearly 20% in the past 10-weeks.

The decline now has it testing potential dual support at (2...



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Insider Scoop

Goldman Sachs: Newly Public Aurora Mobile Set To Gain Market Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 28 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 20, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

Approval of first 'RNA interference' drug - why the excitement?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Approval of first ‘RNA interference’ drug – why the excitement?

Single strands of ribonucleic acid (RNA) are now being used to treat disease. By nobeastsofierce / shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Thomas Schmittgen, University of Florida

Small interfering RNA sounds like something from a science fiction novel rather than a revolutionary type of medicine. But this odd-sounding new drug of...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Aug 19, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A good amount of volatility this past week, but once again indexes are just sort of hanging around as we work through some news items, specifically facing trade issues.  We ended last week with some hand wringing over Turkey – while nothing was really resolved, U.S. markets looked past that… however emerging markets continue their struggle.  The U.S. indexes have simply been range bound for weeks on end.

The Turkish central bank pledged in a statement Monday to provide “all the liquidity the banks need.” It also said banks would be able to borrow foreign-exchange deposits from the central bank at one-month and one-week maturities. Analysts said T...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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