Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

What If A Nuke Goes Off In DC: Science Mag Simulates “The Unthinkable”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Mitchell Waldrop via ScienceMag.com,

At 11:15 on a Monday morning in May, an ordinary looking delivery van rolls into the intersection of 16th and K streets NW in downtown Washington, D.C., just a few blocks north of the White House. Inside, suicide bombers trip a switch.

Instantly, most of a city block vanishes in a nuclear fireball two-thirds the size of the one that engulfed Hiroshima, Japan. Powered by 5 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that terrorists had hijacked weeks earlier, the blast smashes buildings for at least a kilometer in every direction and leaves hundreds of thousands of people dead or dying in the ruins.

An electromagnetic pulse fries cellphones within 5 kilometers, and the power grid across much of the city goes dark. Winds shear the bomb's mushroom cloud into a plume of radioactive fallout that drifts eastward into the Maryland suburbs.

Roads quickly become jammed with people on the move – some trying to flee the area, but many more looking for missing family members or seeking medical help.

It's all make-believe, of course – but with deadly serious purpose.

Known as National Planning Scenario 1 (NPS1), that nuclear attack story line originated in the 1950s as a kind of war game, a safe way for national security officials and emergency managers to test their response plans before having to face the real thing.

Sixty years later, officials are still reckoning with the consequences of a nuclear catastrophe in regular NPS1 exercises. Only now, instead of following fixed story lines and predictions assembled ahead of time, they are using computers to play what-if with an entire artificial society: an advanced type of computer simulation called an agent-based model.

Today's version of the NPS1 model includes a digital simulation of every building in the area affected by the bomb, as well as every road, power line, hospital, and even cell tower. The model includes weather data to simulate the fallout plume. And the scenario is peopled with some 730,000 agents—a synthetic population statistically identical to the real population of the affected area…
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Socialist Group Admits Aiding “Bourgeois” University, Disbands

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Marissa Gentry via Campus Reform,

A radical socialist group at Indiana University-Bloomington is disbanding itself after realizing that its efforts only reinforced the “bourgeois” nature of the institution.

Like the USSR before it, socialist student group SASV is dissolving itself.

Students Against State Violence (SASV), an anti-capitalist student group that claimed to be “building a movement against patriarchy, white supremacy, socioeconomic inequality, and imperialism,” announced in a public statement released last week that it will be dissolving itself as of the Spring semester.

“As of this Spring semester, Students Against State Violence has made the intentional decision to dissolve,” the statement reads.

“Moving on, we will focus our energies on other organizing efforts both on campus and in the larger community.”

According to the document, the group arrived at the decision to disband “through self-criticism of our goals, tactics, struggles, successes, and frustrations.”

“It is vital to understand that university education in capitalist countries functions primarily to reproduce class,” the organization explains.

“It funnels petty-bourgeois students back into the petty-bourgeoisie—a class of managers and small business owners who imitate the bourgeoisie in their exploitation of workers and propagation of neoliberal values—and keeps bourgeois students in the bourgeoisie.” 

As previously reported by Campus Reform, the radical group has been an active promoter of anti-capitalist vandalism on campus, and has distributed pamphlets that urged students to destroy the property of right-leaning organizations.

In its lengthy public statement, the group goes on to argue that the university is indoctrinating students with neoliberal ideologies and is training the campus police, who they refer to as “slave catchers,” to detain and “murder” people of color.

The university, SASV claims, is also training “fledgling capitalists” to extract “surplus value” from areas of the world that are “still in the vice grip of colonialist exploitation.” 

The student group explains that by focusing on education reform and other university campaigns, it was often directly contributing “to the myth that bourgeois education can be a vehicle for mitigating class contradictions.” 

Moving forward, therefore, the group has decided to direct its efforts toward supporting the working class in…
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Germany’s Largest Public TV News Broadcaster: Syria Chemical Attack “Most Likely Staged”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A senior correspondent for German state media broadcast ZDF heute stunned his European audience during a report from on the ground in Syria when he gave a straightforward and honest account of his findings while investigating what happened in Douma. The veteran reporter, Uli Gack, interviewed multiple eyewitnesses of the April 7 alleged chemical attack and concluded of the testimonials, "the Douma chemical attack is most likely staged, a great many people here seem very convinced."

It appears that all local Syrians encountered by the German public broadcast reporter were immediately dismissive of the widespread allegation that the Syrian government gassed civilians, which the US, UK, France, and Israel used a pretext for launching missile strikes on Damascus.

ZDF heute: The world continues to puzzle over whether the banned chemical weapons were used in Douma. ZDF correspondent Uli Gack is in Syria for us: "you were in a large refugee camp today and talked to a lot of people – what did you hear about the attack there?" Gack responded, "the Douma chemical attack is most likely staged, a great many people here seem very convinced."

The German ZDF report is consistent with veteran British journalist Robert Fisk's investigation upon being the first Western journalist to gain access to the site in Douma. Fisk reported early this week, "There are the many people I talked to amid the ruins of the town who said they had 'never believed in' gas stories–which were usually put about, they claimed, by the armed Islamist groups."

Die Welt rätselt weiter, ob die geächteten #Chemiewaffen in #Duma eingesetzt wurden. ZDF-Korrespondent Uli Gack ist für uns in #Syrien – Sie waren heute in einem großen Flüchtlingscamp und haben mit vielen Leuten gesprochen – was haben Sie denn dort über den Angriff gehört? pic.twitter.com/euubha1a2U

— ZDF heute (@ZDFheute) April 20, 2018

ZDF (Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen) is one of Germany's largest and oldest state-owned channels, which is funded in part through citizens paying a household licensing fee, and Heute is perhaps the most visible public news program in all of Germany.

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1 In 4 Millennials Rely On Their Parents To Pay Some Bills – Even While Working Full Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Time and time again, we've discussed how America's millennial generation is burdened by debt, effectively precluded from home ownership and increasingly disgruntled and pessimistic about their future prospects for wealth and happiness.

Debt

In its latest Global Wealth Report, Credit Suisse said the millennial generation has faced "a run of bad luck", much of which was centered around the financial crisis.

"The “Millennials” – people who came of age after the turn of the century – have had a run of bad luck, most clearly in developed markets. Capital losses in the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and high subsequent unemployment have dealt serious blows to young workers and savers. Add rising student debt in several developed countries, tighter mortgage rules after 2008, higher house prices, increased income inequality, less access to pensions and lower income mobility and you have a “perfect storm” holding back wealth accumulation by the Millennials in many countries."

And maybe as a consequence of this "bad luck" (or perhaps because of their sense of entitlement and their unwillingness to seek challenging careers in the sciences or engineering fields), millennials also outrank previous generations in another area: The unprecedented number of people in their mid-to-late 20s (and some even later) who are still living with their parents, or relying on some form of financial help from their parents. Even some who have full time jobs.

Millennials

To that end, CNBC recently pointed out a study showing that nearly a quarter of millennials who are fully employed report receiving help from their parents.

The survey, conducted by Instamonitor, involved 800 millennials, defined as those between the ages of 18 and 34.

Two

The most common bills paid for by parents were cell phones – 54% – and car insurance – 31%.

"For some millennials, especially those just transitioning into adulthood, it can take some time to get to the point where they don't need their parents' help," said certified financial planner Marguerita Cheng, CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland.


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It’s Do-Or-Die For Tech Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

In early March I mused about a market paradox, one where tech would make new highs on a negative divergence while the $DJIA would not make a new high. This event did indeed transpire and it still may have significant implications as it is so very reminiscent of the action we saw in the year 2000. Same time frame too. Since the correction phase commenced in February we have seen plenty of volatility and solid 2 way action as one would expect during a correction. Yet key to watch during these movements is the emergence of patterns and assess their relevance as they may be indicative of the next big move.

Curiously, as volatile as the action has been $NDX, as an index, does not appear to show much of a correction at all in context of its longer term quarterly trend, hence I asked yesterday:

$NDX quarterly chart: What correction? pic.twitter.com/UG9Xt0SWAR

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) April 19, 2018

If Q1 represents a larger correction then please tell me where there is evidence that the most valued and overbought sector, tech, has actually corrected.

We haven’t even tagged the quarterly 5 EMA on $NDX and it’s up 6 quarters in a row. All we’ve had is another higher low and an intra-quarter dip. That suggests a pullback in context of an overbought spike, but no correction. A correction should leave some evidence that there actually has been one. No, from my perch this means that tech has yet to properly correct.

Given the high on a negative divergence and $DJIA failing to make a new high can we draw any conclusions yet as to the next larger move?

Frankly, not quite yet, but charts are suggesting that next week may be very pivotal for tech in particular. A do or die moment.

Zooming in on the weekly chart of $NDX we can observe this pattern:

It has a very distinct heads and shoulders pattern feel to it, but it’s an unconfirmed pattern.…
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“The House Always Wins”: These Funds Made A Killing As Bitcoin Plunged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Volatility, neutral exposure and market making can still pay – at least for crypto hedge funds.

Despite the fact that cryptos have collapsed across the board so far in 2018, one investing axiom still holds true to this day: the house always wins. Those who have been making a market, keeping neutral net exposure and benefiting from exotic methods of trading cryptocurrencies have continued to have a positive year this year despite the fact that a lot of the underlying cryptocurrency assets have had a terrible year.

Bloomberg reported on Thursday:

Funds specializing in virtual currency market making and arbitrage strategies delivered first-quarter gains even as their mostly bullish peers lost 40 percent on average. That’s a big reversal from last year, when digital assets soared and market-making funds lagged far behind their long-biased counterparts.

Pivot Digital Trading-2, managed by Hong Kong-based Amber AI Group, generated some of the biggest gains among cryptocurrency funds that avoid directional bets. It rose 4.3 percent in March to bring its first-quarter return to 30 percent, according to the firm. Market Neutral Liquidity SP-Institutional, domiciled in the Cayman Islands, earned 5.6 percent in the first quarter, said Cedric Jeanson of BitSpread Group, investment adviser to the portfolio.

The man behind the curtain continues to get his take. The increased volume that comes with crypto's plunge may not be great for traditional “buy-and-hold“ crypto funds or retail investors who only have the means to hold long, but that did not stop market makers, net neutral funds and volatility bettors from cashing in. The article continued: 

The results suggest some managers are finding ways to profit from wild swings in cryptocurrencies without having to predict whether they will rise or fall. Such tactics may appeal to investors who want exposure to cryptocurrencies without their extreme volatility.

Here's a full list of funds that weathered the storm and the methods they used, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Bloomberg profiled two of


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“Enough With All The Deaths” – Venezuelan Cops Clash With Protesting Patients & Doctors Over Hospital Shortages

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The price of oil has been steadily climbing this year, but Venezuela's financial situation remains as dire as ever.

And in the latest sign of just how desperate the country's people are for basic necessities like food and medicine, Breitbart reports that police in Venezuela attacked patients and doctors outside Venezuela's Health Ministry in Caracas on Wednesday as they were demonstrating over the collapse of the country's socialized health-care system.

VZ

Demonstrators also demanded to meet with Health Minister Luis Lopez, but he refused to see them (though the vice minister did meet with a handful of demonstrators).

Local media reports described police pushing and shoving the demonstrators, many of whom were suffering from a debilitating illness.

Similar demonstrators took place around the country, as patients demanded more be done to supply hospitals with the supplies they need to treat sick patients.

After they tried to gain access to the building, local police responded by engaging in a "shoving match" with the protesters, many of whom are patients suffering from diseases such as Parkinson’s and HIV and are now failing to receive their required medication provided by the government.

The Vice Minister of Health Jessyca Aleman met with some protesters, including Francisco Valencia, the head of the medical NGO Codevida, who confirmed that the government simply lacked the necessary capacity to respond.

"The government just does not have the response capacity in the face of the magnitude of what is happening with the medicines’ shortages," Francisco told NTN24 following the meeting.

"We will have to go to Miraflores to demand solutions from President Nicolás Maduro," he continued. "Enough with all of the deaths! The government has the solution in its hands by activating international cooperation mechanisms."

Similar healthcare demonstrations also took place around the country. The NGO Venezuelan Observatory for Social Conflict recorded protests over the medical crisis in all 23 states.

The situation inside the country is growing so dire that stories of patients being asked to bring their own gauze, bandages and other supplies abound.

Shocking reports from inside the country include cases of patients being asked to bring


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Citi: “2018 Is Not Going To Plan”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Discussing recent trends in the bond market, Citi's credit strategists point out that there have been a lot of surprised traders this year, because i) the first half was supposed to be fine "like last year", and ii) IG was supposed to keep outperforming HY.

And yet, contrary to expectations, both investment grade and junk bond spreads blew out in the past few months, catalyzed by the spike in real yields, the February VIX/vol ETN fiasco, the surge in $ Libor and the recent escalation in the US Chinese trade war…

… which in turn has sent the HY/IG ratio tumbling, as junk has sharply outperformed IG.

This led Citi's Hans Lorenzen to conclude the "2018 is not going to plan", prompting him to ask what's going on: "a succession of unhappy coincidences or something deeper?"

This paradox is accentuated when considering that the fundamentals behind credit corporates still remain sound, including corporate deleveraging among the Top 25 largest companies, a thrifty approach to spending cash and not lavishing shareholders…

… which also mean there has been little rating deterioration and more positive than negative reviews.

Other favorable catalysts include contained corporate supply (as in no net issuance to buy for private investors when taking the ECB's CSPP in consideration), a relentless bid from the ECB even as deposits have continued to accumulate across Eurozone banks, with the ECB's negative deposit rates having little impact on savings.

And yet, Citi notes that while fundamentals do support tight credit spreads…

… they do not support spreads "this tight."

But what got us here in the first place? We will spare readers Lorenzen's favorite chart, which shows the unprecedented increase in central bank balance sheets in the past decade…

… or rather we won't, because as Citi's bank strategist writes, what got us here is "central bank distortions" which have manifested…
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Visualizing The Pension Time Bomb: $400 Trillion By 2050

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Are governments making promises about pensions that they might not be able to keep?

According to an analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF), there was a combined retirement savings gap in excess of $70 trillion in 2015, spread between eight major economies..

As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, The WEF says the deficit is growing by $28 billion every 24 hours – and if nothing is done to slow the growth rate, the deficit will reach $400 trillion by 2050, or about five times the size of the global economy today.

The group of economies studied: Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Japan, India, China, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

MIND THE GAP

Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur, and it illuminates a growing problem attached to an aging population (and those that will be supporting it).

Since social security programs were initially developed, the circumstances around work and retirement have shifted considerably. Life expectancy has risen by three years per decade since the 1940s, and older people are having increasingly long life spans. With the retirement age hardly changing in most economies, this longevity means that people are spending longer not working without the savings to justify it.

This problem is amplified by the size of generations and fertility rates. The population of retirees globally is expected to grow from 1.5 billion to 2.1 billion between 2017-2050, while the number of workers for each retiree is expected to halve from eight to four over the same timeframe.

The WEF has made clear that the situation is not trivial, likening the scenario to “financial climate change”:

The anticipated increase in longevity and resulting ageing populations is the financial equivalent of climate change

-Michael Drexler, Head of Financial and Infrastructure Systems, WEF

Like climate change, some of the early signs of this retirement savings gap can be “sandbagged” for the time being – but if not handled properly in the medium and long term, the adverse effects could be overwhelming.

FUTURE PROOFING

While implementing various system reforms like raising the retirement age will help, ultimately…
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BofA: “The Key Story For The Bond Market Is About To Play Out”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In its weekly commentary on the Treasury yield curve, Deutsche Bank focuses on the sharp flattening that has taken place in the past 6 months, noting that "fiscal shocks, which started with bear steepening, are gradually migrating to the front end and the curve continues to bear flatten."

Meanwhile, as the front-end has been battered into a "pancake" formation, with curve volatility fast repricing and "migrating to the upper left corner"…

… the stability of the long end remains unshaken.

Why is the long-end seemingly impervious to both volatility and selling? According to DB's derivative strategist Alex Kocic, "at the moment, bonds are enjoying considerable positive externality due to residual QE demand, favorable rate differential, stable USD, pension fund rebalancing flows and a general environment of unwind of the QE. All of this is supportive for the long end of the US curve and bearish for bond vol, which only reinforces its appeal."

Perhaps, but there certainly are occasional episodes like the one from last week, when the curve blew out sharply, and from a decade low of 42bps, the 2s10s spread surged to just above 50bps in the span of 48 hours, amid a sharp selloff in the 10Y, which saw its yield balloon to 2.96% from 2.82% just 2 days earlier.

What prompted this sharp move, and pronounced selling of the long end, is unclear with everything from the recent surge in commodities sharply repricing TIPS breakevens to a 4 year high…

… to a return of general wage inflation fears, to strong earnings, and even Chinese selling, suggested as catalysts.

Whatever the reason for last week's sharp selloff – and curve steepening – an even more important question that has emerged is whether the selling will continue, and will the 10Y finally break above 3% resulting in yet another VaR shock as one of the two most important – and opposing – bond market trendlines in the world is finally broken.

And while there is a…
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Zero Hedge

What If A Nuke Goes Off In DC: Science Mag Simulates "The Unthinkable"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Mitchell Waldrop via ScienceMag.com,

At 11:15 on a Monday morning in May, an ordinary looking delivery van rolls into the intersection of 16th and K streets NW in downtown Washington, D.C., just a few blocks north of the White House. Inside, suicide bombers trip a switch.

...



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Digital Currencies

"The House Always Wins": These Funds Made A Killing As Bitcoin Plunged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Volatility, neutral exposure and market making can still pay - at least for crypto hedge funds.

Despite the fact that cryptos have collapsed across the board so far in 2018, one investing axiom still holds true to this day: the house always wins. Those who have been making a market, keeping neutral net exposure and benefiting from exotic methods of trading cryptocurrencies have continued to have a positive year this year despite the fact that a lot of the underlying cryptocurrency assets have had a terrible year.

...



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Phil's Favorites

#DeleteFacebook is still feeding the beast - but there are ways to overcome surveillance capitalism

 

#DeleteFacebook is still feeding the beast – but there are ways to overcome surveillance capitalism

Not creepy at all. antb / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Yuwei Lin, University of Stirling

In the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, many people are questioning whether or not to delete their Facebook accounts. It’s not the first time this has happened. I can’t recall how many times I have seen calls to boycott Facebook – on Facebook – ever since I started using the social media platform.

But many peopl...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Says The Big Sell-Off In Skechers Is A Buying Opportunity

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SKX 25 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Mid-Day Market Update: Skechers USA Falls After Weak Q2 Guidance; Ericsson Shares Climb...

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Chart School

Short Opportunity II

Courtesy of Declan.

The first chance for a short play got burned but there is a second one on offer for the S&P.

The S&P tagged channel resistance and while today's reversal off resistance didn't amount to a big percentage loss it did register as a distribution day. There wasn't any significant technical change so if this short does evolve it will do so with risk measured on a move above 2,717.


The Nasdaq may match a 'bearish evening star' but if this is the case there has to be a significant move lower tomor...

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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Biotech

How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida

...

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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