Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

The Weekly Webinar – 01-20-2021

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!



Major Topics:

00:05:50 – Checking on the Market
00:07:20 – Natural Gas
00:10:00 – Trading Techniques
00:11:58 – DAX 
00:16:28 – Portfolio Review
00:17:41 – LTP
00:23:07 – Earnings | Most Anticipated Earnings Releases as of January 18,2021
00:29:25 – UNG
00:32:43 – Natural Gas | LNG
00:41:40 – Current News & Politics
01:07:09 – T
01:14:56 – GM
01:26:50 – MG and more trading techniques
01:30:11 – AT&T | Verizon

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here.

3,850 Thursday – S&P 500 Seems Comfortable 700 Points Over the Must Hold Line


That's still the true value-line we have for the S&P 500 based on old-fashioned notions like actual earnings and actual prospects without the assumption of Trillions of Dollars being pumped into the economy.  It's "only" a 20% drop from where we are now and we were down there as recently as October and below 2,850 in June.  2,850 was our old Must Hold Line but we capitulated by 10% on the assumption that Corporate Tax Cuts would not be going away completely – it's the MASSIVE stimulus that's been an upside surprise since then.  

The Chart above is still using our 2,850 base and the 5% Rule is still working from 2,850 so it's still in play and that means 3,990 is the 40% line.  We had good consolidation at 30% (3,705) during December so we can assume the lines in between that 285-point run will be 20% (57 points) each and that's going to be 3,762, 3,819, 3,876 (which we're testing now) and 3,933.  Those are the lines to watch to see how the S&P behaves during earnings season.

Generally, companies have been beating low expectations and, so far, investors seem to be in a forgiving mood as, for example, United Airlines (UAL) lost $2.1Bn in Q4, which is 15% of their $13.2Bn market cap and $7 lost per $45 share in the past 3 months.  Yet the stock is only down 2% pre-market.  Why?  FREE MONEY!!!  There will be more free money and no one thinks Joe Biden will let the airlines go bankrupt – even though he is a train guy.

Delta (DAL) also lost $2.1Bn for the quarter but they expect to turn it around in Q1 and show a profit.  A month into Q1 – I think they are on drugs.  There's no changing travel trend to indicate a turn-around that rapid – unless they are counting on $2.1Bn in stimulus to get them over the top.

At $41.62/share, Delta's market cap is $26.5Bn and Delta's net income in previous years has been $3-4Bn but this year they have taken a $14Bn loss, wiping out the last 3 years of gains.  Of course, that's not your problem if you are coming in as a new investor – you…
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When Secular Trends Reverse…and Economic Time Bombs


When Secular Trends Reverse…and Economic Time Bombs

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

My partner Charlie (who runs the advisory business Compound Advisors) and I have been chatting for a month or so about the possibilities of secular changes in the markets. Charlie put together a great post on the changes that have my attention. It begins:

The most significant investing trends over the last 10 years can be summarized as follows…

1. Large Caps over Small Caps.
2. US over International.
3. Growth over Value.
4. Tech over Everything.
5. Long Duration over Short Duration (Yields Falling, Curve Flattening).
6. Stocks over Commodities.
7. When Covid-19 first hit the US last February and March, all of these pre-existing trends accelerated.

And that made perfect sense.

The narrative: a global Depression coming, and during a Depression a) large companies were more likely to survive than smaller companies, b) the US should do better than much of the world given the enormous monetary/fiscal stimulus, c) growth companies would be bid up in a world starved for it, d) technology would thrive as people were forced to stay at home, e) bond yields would plummet as deflationary pressures took hold, and f) commodities would crash from the lack of demand.

These narratives seemed inevitable, and prices were confirming.

But then, with no advance warning, a strange thing started happening. One by one, these trends began to reverse course…

Take the time to read because it is excellent and you will have an idea of the subtle changes we are keeping an eye on, but the gist of the research on these big trend changes is as follows:

When secular trends reverse, no bell is rung, and no one can believe that a shift has actually occurred.

But as narratives follow prices, the longer they are sustained, the more the story changes and the more people believe it.

That has already begun, with the current narrative of a Depression averted, with a) small companies benefitting more from stimulus measures than their larger counterparts, b) global stocks benefitting from a falling dollar

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Whipsaw Wednesday – America Heads in a New Direction

Three Reasons Biden Flipped the Midwest - POLITICOWe're going to go back to the future!  

After taking an evolutionary step backwards for four years, it's time to get America back on track and moving forward again in the 21st Century and, hopefully, we still have time to make this decade the Roaring 20s and not the prelude to the second Great Depression.  As Warren Buffett says about investing in companies:.  

“I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”

Well, America has not passed the idiot test but it's still too soon to get a grade as we have to see if Engineer Joe can get this train back on the tracks or if, at this point, he'll merely be able to bring us in for a soft landing.  At 78 years old, even Joe Biden doesn't think he should be President for more than 4 years and is calling himself a "Transition President".  Reagan was 78 when he left office, Trump is 74 but, as Reagan said of Walter Mondale:

“I want you to know that I will not make age an issue of this campaign,” Reagan said. “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Experience is certainly what Joe Biden is bringing to the table – he's been a Senator since 1973, then VP for 8 years in 2009 and then 4 years of relaxation as a Professor at the University of Pennsylvania while remaining at the forefront of the "Cancer Moonshot" program he started and is likely to bring to the White House officially as one of his first acts.  If you want to know what Joe Biden is really about, watch his eulogy for John McCain.

Politics doesn't have to be ugly and our nation doesn't have to be bitterly divided.  We, the people, are being offered a chance to go forward with the grace and
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They’re on Fire


They’re on Fire

Courtesy of 

Small businesses got absolutely decimated by the economic shutdown. It’s no surprise, therefore, that small stocks also led the decline. The S&P 500 had a peak-to-trough decline of 34%, whereas the Russell 2000 fell 41% and the even smaller Russell Micro Cap index fell 43%.

Over the last few weeks and months, however, all that was lost was made up and then some. It’s hard to believe, but over the last year, microcap stocks have done twice as well as large-cap stocks. Given that small businesses are still in a world of pain, generally speaking, the market must be discounting a combination of continued fiscal stimulus and a reopening of the economy.

I wanted to look under the hood to see what’s driving the returns in small stocks. The answer, mostly everything. 83% of stocks in the Russell 2000 have positive returns over the last 6 months.

Here’s a wild data point: The top 10 stocks by market cap in the Russell 2000 are up 160% on average over the last 6 months. Over the last 6 months, the index is up 26%.

How is it possible that the 10 biggest stocks have done six times as well as the index? Because unlike the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 does not have any concentration issues.

Please allow me to explain what you’re about to see. I tried creating a pie chart of the Russell 2000 to compare it with the S&P 500, but since the slices are so thin, it just didn’t work. You could only see a quarter of the chart and the rest was just white space. In order to correct for this, I sorted by alphabetical order. Feast your eyes. 

The takeaway for me is that the Russell 2000 is way more diversified than the S&P 500.

1% of the S&P 500 make up nearly a quarter of the index. The Russell 2000 also exhibits a top-heavy construction, but not nearly to the extent that large-cap stocks do. 5% of the index holds a quarter of the market cap.

Josh and I got into this and much more in the latest episode of What Are Your Thoughts?

Subscribe to the channel, you’ll get a notification as the show is about to premiere each week.

Image by Vladimir Maric from Pixabay

Tuesday Already?

January 19th already, too.

This new year is flying by and maybe that's because 2020 seemed to take forever.  Even though we are still locked down, there is, hopefully, light at the end of the tunnel but before we start to take off the masks and party like it's 2019 (remember the good old days), let's keep in mind that there's still a lot of work ahead of us and, according to the CEO of vaccine-maker, Moderna, this Covid virus is in it for the long haul.

On Friday, the World Health Organization urged more effort to detect new variants. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a new version first identified in the United Kingdom may become dominant in the U.S. by March. Although it doesn’t cause more severe illness, it will lead to more hospitalizations and deaths just because it spreads much more easily, said the CDC, warning of “a new phase of exponential growth.”

Of course, that's good news for Biotech.  

A couple of weeks ago, Moderna's CEO, Bancel said that the "nightmare scenario" where mRNA-1273 provided protection for only a few months was now "out of the window." He added that the slow decay of antibodies generated through the vaccine indicates that the duration of protection of mRNA-1273 could be up to two years.  That news was certainly encouraging for people across the world and for investors. Two years of immunity would mean that Moderna could at least see substantial revenue from its vaccine every other year.  But in an interview with CNBC last week, Bancel gave investors even more reason to be excited. He stated, "I think this will become a market like flu." The flu, of course, is seasonal, with vaccines administered on a yearly basis.

While it's a little goulish betting on the downfall of humanity – it's also realistic as, while we've been distracted, more than 60% of all US Covid-19 cases have been reported SINCE Election Day – just two months!  40% of the deaths have occurred in the last 60 days as well.  The US now has over 24M cases, 14.5M of which came in the last
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re: Trumpless Twitter


re: Trumpless Twitter

Courtesy of 

On November 7th, 2013, a stock was born.


Twitter priced its initial public offering Wednesday night at $26 a share. The stock debuted at 10:49 a.m. ET on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange, and the first trade came in at $45.10 a share.

Shares quickly jumped to a high of $50.09 — a gain of 93% over the IPO price — before dropping back a bit to close the trading day at $44.90.

A price near $45 a share values Twitter (TWTR) at $24.4 billion.

Twitter closed at $45 per share on its first day as a public company. On Friday, it closed at the same price.

$10,000 invested that day yielded a total return seven years later of about six hundred bucks, give or take. You actually lost money – the cost of living since 2013 is up a cumulative fifteen percent or so:

It would be incorrect to say that no value has been created whatsoever. It’s just that no value has been created for shareholders. All of the value created by Twitter has accrued to someone other than Twitter – I’ll get to that shortly.

Employees and management have done okay, relatively speaking. Because while Twitter’s share price hasn’t gained by even a dollar since its IPO, plenty of new shares have been issued to executives, board members and workers.

Below is a look at the growth in Twitter’s fully diluted shares outstanding (quarterly) and the growth in market capitalization that has come along with that:

Shares outstanding have grown from 640 million to 806 million, or twenty five percent. The company is now worth $35 billion versus its first day valuation of about $24 billion – but not one long-term shareholder from that first day has benefited. There’s no dividend and there’s no capital gain. They’ve been paid nothing for their time, patience and endurance of volatility. And in real dollar terms, they’ve actually lost purchasing power.

So while many of this

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Happy Martin Luther King Day

The Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. at the Lincoln Memorial during the March on Washington on Aug. 28, 1963.It's Martin Luther King day so the markets are closed.

It's a good day to read his "I Have a Dream" speech – really is amazing when you think of the great social change in this nation that was set in motion by one man with a vision.  Here's a great video of the actual event.

It is a testament to the power and effectiveness of Dr. King's movement that, even to those of us who were alive at the time, it seems like it must have been another world where a man had to speak out against such injustice as if it wasn't obvious to the majority of people that segragation, whether by law or by practice, was an outrage.

Sadly, many of the lessons he taught us have already been forgotten, some great quotes:

  • Nonviolence is a powerful and just weapon. which cuts without wounding and ennobles the man who wields it. It is a sword that heals.
  • Nonviolence means avoiding not only external physical violence but also internal violence of spirit. You not only refuse to shoot a man, but you refuse to hate him.
  • It is not enough to say we must not wage war. It is necessary to love peace and sacrifice for it.
  • The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood.
  • Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable… Every step toward the goal of justice requires sacrifice, suffering, and struggle; the tireless exertions and passionate concern of dedicated individuals.   
  • Never forget that everything Hitler did in Germany was legal.
  • We will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.
  • The past is prophetic in that it asserts loudly that wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows.
  • A nation or civilization that continues to produce soft-minded men purchases its own spiritual death on the installment plan.
  • A nation that

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The Great Grift


The Great Grift

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

The federal response to the pandemic has been massive — a $5 trillion effort. It has also been a con. Under the cloud cover of Covid-19, the shareholder class has used its outsized influence over government to toss a few loaves of bread at those suffering, all the while accruing trillions of dollars in wealth financed on the backs of younger, and future, generations.

How did we get here? In a healthy capitalist economy, wealth is always at risk. Competition spurs innovation, which disrupts the established order, creating winners — and also losers. Joseph Schumpeter called this the “gale of creative destruction.” Over the long term, the spoils (ideally) fund both a more empathetic society and the infrastructure for more innovation and prosperity — but this only happens if the gale is permitted to blow.

Naturally, the winners tend to lose enthusiasm for this process when their own wealth is creatively destroyed. So they fight back. And one of their preferred weapons of entrenchment is government policy.

Government by the Rich, for the Rich

The influence of money in politics is well known. Just 400 wealthy families provide about half the funding for presidential campaigns, and they speedball their influence through think tanks, legal advocacy groups, and friendly media. Rupert Murdoch, the Mercer family, Michael Bloomberg, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos all shape our views and influence national policy. 

The wealthy use this influence to expand

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Pursuing Tesla’s electric cars won’t rev up VW’s share price


Pursuing Tesla's electric cars won't rev up VW's share price

The 2015 diesel scandal resulted in a 40% drop in the company’s share price at the time. A. Aleksandravicius/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Hamza Mudassir, Cambridge Judge Business School

Volkswagen’s chairman, Herbert Deiss, has been struggling to bring the company’s stock price back to its previous heights since he took over the reins of the German car maker six years ago. The business has been embroiled in infighting, scandals and board tussles.

Diess was appointed in 2015 at the peak of the diesel emissions scandal, when VW was caught using software settings to under-report emissions. He was surprisingly mellow in a recent LinkedIn post in which he acknowledged that there has been significant resistance within the company that he has yet to resolve. He went on to detail his plans to turn around the fortunes of an increasingly disrupted VW.

There is one thing Deiss is clear on: VW, which continues to be the world’s biggest automaker in terms of cars sold, must catch up with Tesla, an electric-vehicle company, in order to survive.

VW and Tesla share price

VW’s share price has been tanking, its will take some effort to zoom past Tesla. TradingView

Catching up to Tesla might be a little tricky. Reminiscent of how Apple bolted past Nokia in market value in 2008, Tesla recently became the world’s most valuable automaker while selling only a fraction of the cars Volkswagen does. Nonetheless, VW’s “catch-up” project has been code-named “Mission T” and has a goal to match Tesla’s technological capabilities by 2024.

Deiss appears to believe that building better, more electric “products” will help him save VW. History, however, has repeatedly shown that building a better product rarely resolves disruption. The graveyard of technically superior products is extensive and includes the likes of BluRay, Windows Mobile and the Sega Dreamcast.

An alien ecosystem

Tesla’s competitive advantage does not come from just its technology and agility, as Deiss indicates in his LinkedIn post. Far from it. The company has…
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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game


The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

When I was a kid I played ‘Pong’ and ‘Space Invaders’ and Coleco Football and Mattel ‘Intellivision’.

In college I stopped.

Maybe if there were smartphones and no women, I would still be a ‘gamer’, but my generation was looking up not down.

I found the markets because I needed a first job and I was hooked.

It has been a battle of wits and behavior since. The markets have brought me to panic and fear on many occasions but most...

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Aviation Lawsuit Filed Against Boeing Regarding Hard Landing in Turkey

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

(Chicago IL, January 21, 2021) Today, lawyers representing victims of Pegasus Flight 2193, announced that a lawsuit was filed against The Boeing Company and the aircraft owner. The lawsuit asserts claims of Negligence, Product Liability, and Breach of Warranty regarding a Boeing aircraft that crashed in Istanbul, Turkey.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Hard Landing Of Pegasus Flight 2193

On February 5, 2020, a commercial flight operated by Pegasus Airlines was scheduled to depart from Izmir Adnan Menderes Airport and arrive in Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen ...

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Zero Hedge

China Appeals To "Kind Angels" Of Biden Administration, Blames Trump For "Burning Bridges"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While essentially placing sole blame on Trump and his top officials, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in the latest press briefing remarks that "kind angels can triumph over evil forces" in America.

"In the past years, the Trump administration, especially (former Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo, has laid too many mines that need to be removed, burned too many...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

A Repeat Of The 2000 Highs In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.

Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.

So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.

In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.

As you ca...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!

Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.


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What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads


What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...

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The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents


The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...

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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases


The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here


Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House


Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
... more from Insider


Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.