Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Friday Federal Failure – Congress Takes a 3-Day Weekend Without Fixing Anything!

Political Cartoons - October 29,1929: The Great DepressionWTF?

The unemployment benefit boost ran out last Friday and, all week, we were told Congress was making progress towards a new stimulus bill and President Trump, who has never steered us wrong, said that if Congress couldn't agree to extend benefits he would sign and executive order but, last night, the whole thing blew up and we got – NOTHING!!! 

Democrats have introduced the HEROES Act which would provide $3 trillion of economic relief. The Republican plan, the HEALS Act, would only allocate $1 trillion dollars. Both sides have attempted to reach compromises in order to pass a cohesive bill, but that has yet to occur.

After a meeting between Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Pelosi said no progress had been made. "We're very far apart," Pelosi said. "It's very unfortunate."  Pelosi said Republicans "didn't take the virus seriously in the beginning, they're not taking the consequences of the virus seriously at this time. And that's why it's hard to come to terms."

As noted by Paul Krugman, employment has plunged, and real G.D.P. fell by around 10 percent. Almost all of that, however, reflected the direct effects of the pandemic, which forced much of the economy into lockdown.  What didn’t happen was a major second round of job losses driven by plunging consumer demand. Millions of workers lost their regular incomes; without federal aid, they would have been forced to slash spending, causing millions more to lose their jobs. Luckily Congress stepped up to the plate with special aid to the unemployed, which sustained consumer spending and kept the nonquarantined parts of the economy afloat.

The Democrats put up the HEROES act in JUNE and now it's AUGUST and we're still waiting on the Republican plan – even though they are well aware of the consequences of not moving forward.  Unlike affluent Americans, the mostly low-wage workers whose benefits have just been terminated can’t blunt the impact by drawing on savings or borrowing against assets. So their spending will fall by a lot – pretty much immediately.  

8:30 Update1.8M jobs were added in July,
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 08-05-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!

 

Major Topics:

00:02:50 – Checking on the Markets
00:03:22 – Petroluem Status Report
00:10:50 – Weekly Petroleum Report
00:12:06 – Petroleum Supply Monthly
00:12:26 – This Week in Petroleum
00:25:19 – ENB
00:34:52 – Natural Gas
00:38:29 – COVID-19 Update
00:55:56 – Trading Techniques
00:57:45 – DIS
01:05:33 – VIAC
01:11:10 – More Trading Techniques
01:12:37 – WYNN
01:13:25 – MIDD
01:26:57 – M
01:27:15 – MJ
01:27:32 – MO | PAA
01:27:54 – SPWR | TD | TOL
01:28:05 – TXT
01:28:12 – VALE | VIAC
01:28:29 – WBA
01:28:54 – XOM

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here





Faltering Thursday – Jobs Disappear and Take Market Highs With Them

695,000.

That was the most people ever laid off in a single week in the US, way back in 1982.  In March, layoffs peaked out at 6.9M in a single week and, for the month of July, they've been around 1.3M – each week – double our worst week in history 4 weeks in a row.  And this is what President Trump calls a recovery?

As you can see from the Unemployment Chart, we still have about 17M jobless Americans (officially) and it's getting worse again.  Temporarilly laid off workers went back to work but the jobs thate are being lost now are the permanent kind, due to store closing, restaurant closings, etc. – jobs that aren't going to bounce back quickly and can't be "fixed" with a small stimulus loan.  

And, don't forget, the Government supplemented businesses NOT to lay off workers through July but now that those supplements have run out, a lot of companies have to make hard choices to either pay the rent or pay the workers and many are just giving up and doing neither and, when the landlords can't pay the bank – that's when the Fed leaps into action!  A good example of reality from the Wall Street Journal this morning:

Shana O’Mara has been receiving unemployment benefits since early July, after the expiration of a government loan that was sustaining her Tempe, Ariz., travel agency. She stopped drawing a salary from her business to keep it alive, but has continued to work without pay helping customers rebook and cancel trips.

She said her most recent weekly unemployment benefit payment fell to $214 after taxes, from $748 the preceding week, reflecting the July 31 expiration of an additional $600 in pretax federal benefits.  “I don’t think anyone can live on $800 a month,” she said. Her family has stopped ordering takeout, and she called her auto lender and


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How TikTok got caught in the crosshairs of US-China politics

 

How TikTok got caught in the crosshairs of US-China politics

Vowing to ban TikTok was a power play by the US president. Evan El-Amin / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Kerry Brown, King's College London

Donald Trump’s threat to ban TikTok, a video sharing app owned by Beijing-based ByteDance, on August 1 is only the latest in a series of clashes between the US and China. With each of these events – from the US ban on telecoms company Huawei to the US response to events in Hong Kong and the continuing escalation of the trade war which stretches back formally to 2018 – one has to remember that there are several different conflicts taking place between the world’s largest and second-largest economies. It is important to work out which of these the TikTok issue belongs to.

Ostensibly, the main reason for a ban is national security concerns. Trump administration officials say TikTok could pose a security threat by giving the Chinese government access to vast amounts of US citizens’ data. Yet there is little evidence for these claims, nor how Trump’s proposed solution of selling TikTok’s US operations to Microsoft would solve the problem.

Similar issues were raised by the ban on Huawei, and the operations of other major Chinese corporates in the US. They even predate the Trump presidency, reaching back to the mid-2000s when Congress vetoed Chinese involvement in energy company Unocal, and raised questions about tech company Lenovo’s purchase of the US IBM ThinkPad brand.

A strange security risk

TikTok seems to pose a strange kind of security challenge, given that most of its content is silly viral video memes. With Huawei there were more complex matters to verify, such as how to check the reliability of its hardware. TikTok doesn’t involve these to such an extent. So why the focus on this company?

Reaching beyond the realm of security, therefore, we must venture into that of trade and technology. TikTok’s greatest problem is that it manifestly demonstrates Chinese success beyond the borders of China. This is not as common as it might seem. Chinese companies which are genuinely internationally successful are few and
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It’s Directional

 

It’s Directional

Courtesy of 

Johnson & Johnson announced Wednesday that it will develop and deliver 100 million doses of its coronavirus vaccine for the U.S. in a deal totaling more than $1 billion.

The company’s experimental vaccine is currently in early-stage human trials and is expected to begin late-stage human trials in September, executives have previously said. The deal gives the U.S. the option to order an additional 200 million doses, according to the announcement.

This is really all that matters. Just about everything else is noise, because the virus being prevented will change it all. Therefore, if you just think and focus on this one thing, you’re saving yourself a lot of time.

There will now be a steady procession of vaccine related news each week into the actual FDA approval. My bet is that the first vaccine is approved this fall, before the election. I don’t know anything about vaccines but I know all I need to know about people and incentives.

Batches are already being produced for several of the leading vaccine candidates. Maybe more than one gets approved this year. You don’t need enough doses for everyone. You just need enough for people to feel like the problem has a solution.

The economy is going to roar if this happens. Roar. The stock market is sniffing this possibility out. So are the metals and other commodity prices.

If you’re hearing people saying boring, predictable things like “It’s going to be a long time before things get back to where they were blah blah blah” they’re absolutely clueless about how this stuff works. It’s not about the degree of recovery for the stock market, or some now-forgotten high watermark for a particular economic benchmark. Nobody gives a f*** about that. It’s DIRECTIONAL. That’s all that ever concerns the stock market. Which way are we going and at what speed? 

Well, on a vaccine approval, we’re getting our lives back and all the activity around you is going up. And the speed will be breakneck. We just need to get through the air pockets between now and then.

Source:

Johnson & Johnson reaches deal with U.S. for 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine at more than $1 billion (CNBC)

Pictures from Pixabay.





Will We Hold It Wednesday – Dow 27,000 Again?

MORE FREE MONEY!!!

We'd better give some to Disney (DIS), who lost $5Bn in Q2 and has given up on releasing Mulan (live version) in theaters and will go straight to video in September.  The Covid-19 pandemic has closed Disney’s theme parks, virtually eliminated movie distribution and curtailed live sports, a key programming source for Disney TV networks. However, the world’s shut-in nature has helped the  company’s Disney DIS 0.81% + streaming service secure more than 60 million users in nearly nine months, a mark that Netflix took about eight years to achieve.  

In other playground stocks, WYNN also lost $5Bn this morning in their Q2 report and the company has $3.8Bn in cash left and already has $12.8Bn in debt.  The company is trading at about 50% of it's all-time high despite revenues being off 94.8% for the quarter and despite the fact that WYNN has only made about $2Bn in the past 5 years so a $5Bn loss is wiping out 10 years+ of profits.   

Of course the nice thing about WYNN going forward is it will be 10 years until they have to pay taxes again but it could be 100 years if they lose another 5Bn in Q3 and go bust – all this optimism assumes things will be back to normal next year but, between now and then, how much debt damage will be done.

Unfortunately, we simply don't have enough information to take a stab at WYNN for $8Bn when they are losing $5Bn a quarter.  What rational investor would pay $8 to lose $5 per quarter?  These losses are real, they have to either borrow more money next Q (you already owe $13 as a proud shareholder) or find more investors, which will dilute your position.  As fun as it would be to own the stock going forward, even if they make $500M/year, there's this debt to pay and $8Bn is still 16x FUTURE earnings – that's not a good deal by any stretch.  

Most stocks are like that at the moment and so is the entire market.  We're irrationally ignoring the the potential downside to a second wave of viral infections and we're still in the middle…
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Dawg on the Wall

 

Dawg on the Wall

Courtesy of Scott Galloway at No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway 

(originally published July 31, 20)

Since the age of five I’ve enjoyed peeing outdoors. Forty years later, peeing has become something I must do several dozen times a day, and I don’t like the outdoors. But life mimics math, and the product of two negatives is a positive. More math: grilled cheese or tomato soup as individuals I find boring. But together, they’re my favorite thing at the Crosby Hotel bar. God, I miss eating at bars alone, with strangers around me. 

I’m staying alone in Montauk at a friend’s house while he’s in Portugal (something about taxes and quality of life). After my morning coffee and power shake, it’s time to water the plants. Look, it's a bayberry plant, and there’s a crape myrtle. I hear something and startle. I just came from Montana, where everyone tells you to be mindful of bears. My fear escalates to DEFCON 2 when I see not a bear but five men standing in the backyard witnessing my divertissement. Four of them are wearing cargo shorts and could be quadruplets. The fifth is in a suit. The only guy that wears a suit on 92-degree Saturday morning is a real estate broker. Now I remember, the broker is showing the house this morning. 

They act like my Vizsla when she’s done something wrong: freeze in their tracks and avoid eye contact. Who would blame them.

The smartest and most noble


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Toppy Tuesday – Waiting for the Shoes to Drop

We're still at 11,000 on the Nasdaq.

We punched over it a bit yesterday and we're into our second round of shorts on the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures now and you can still catch them crossing the 11,000 line with tight stops above, which is a more conservative way to play.  We scaled back in overnight, taking advantage of the spike up to end up with 3 short at 11,048 average so 11,000 is now our stop line to lock in the net $1,000 per contract gains (there were some losses that are offset).  

The Russell (/RTY) is below 1,500 so, as long as that stays below, it's still good to short /NQ and the Dow (/YM) failed 26,600 and the S&P (/ES) failed 3,300 again and we're probably on the way back to 3,150, which is the Must Hold Line on our Big Chart and also now the 50 dma(ish).  Our tracking chart for the S&P is more conservative as we don't think this bull run will last so the Must Hold line on the SPX is still 2,850 and thats' a solid 15% drop from where we are now:

Our hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio are holding up well and the portfolio itself is up 373% for the year as the STP loves volatility – and we've had plenty of that.  Although it's early in the month, not much is happening today so it's a good time to go over our hedges and see if there's anything we should adjust (there wasn't last time).  We haven't touched the positions since July 14th (3 weeks) other than adding the short INTC puts but, since then, the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) has gained $75,000 AND the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) is up $70,000 too – not bad for leaving things alone!

  • CANE – I thought sugar consumption may go up during a pandemic and so far, so good and we're well over our very conservative target.  Keep in mind that we sold the Oct $5 puts for 0.75 so our net entry is $4.25 and we make 0.75 (17.6% against risk) if CANE is


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Momentum Monday – Digital Dominance…This Week Semiconductors and 5G

 

Momentum Monday – Digital Dominance…This Week Semiconductors and 5G

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Good Monday morning everyone.

As always here is this weeks Momentum Monday from Ivanhoff and I.

I walk through the Apple explosion to new highs and what that means for my stops and area where I would get defensive.

Google is the weakest of the FAANG stocks.

I shared some fresh ideas with Ivanhoff in the software and 5G sector which include $ESTC $SWKS $QRVO and $QCOM.

I hope you enjoy it.

I also wanted to enclose this longer, but excellent video on the semiconductor sector of an interview between Gavin Baker (ex Fidelity portfolio manager) and Rob Koyfman of Koyfin. Gavin does a historical look at the industry to put into context the explosion underway in the AI industry and how it will help the sector. It is worth a watch – here.

 

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here.  

 





Monday Market Movement – Nasdaq 11,000 and Bust, Again?

Apple $425, Nasdaq 11,000 – Yipee!!!

As you can see on the chart, AAPL is up almost 40% for the year and AAPL is 15% of the Nasdaq so it's responsible for 6% of the Nasdaq's rise from 9,000 to 11,000 (22%) for the year so 27% of the Nasdaq's rise is due to one stock and then you have to consider the suppliers Apple boosts along with their own stock.  

Apple is having a break-out moment as $425 per share is a $1.8Tn market cap so we're just 10% away from $2Tn in valuation at $470 – get your party hats ready.  $2Tn is the GDP of Italy (#9 in the World) or Brazil (#8) with France, India and the UK, with population of 65M in France, 1.4Bn in India and 67M in the UK doing a piss-poor job comared to Apple's 137,000 employees.  Is the average Apple employee 10,000 times more productive than the average Indian?  If so, it's hard to explain the valuation of Infosys (INFY). 

Speaking of companies that are worth $1.5 Trillion (yes, there's more than one now), Microsoft (MSFT) is trying to buy TikTok's North American operations so they can have something cool in their portfolio (now that's they've given up on Bing).  President Trump has been helping Microsoft by threatening to ban TikTok in the US, devaluing their platform and scaring the company enough for MSFT to swoop in and make an offer – good old-fashioned strong arm tactics from your favorite Oiligopolists:

“Microsoft appreciates the U.S. Government’s and President Trump’s personal involvement as it continues to develop strong security protections for the country,” the company said in its statement.

Big Brother Isn't Watching You — You're Watching Him! – LobeLogThe deal would land Microsoft the breakout social-media player of this decade. It would give Washington a win over Beijing by bringing a Chinese technology crown jewel under U.S. ownership. For TikTok parent ByteDance it would resolve the national-security concerns that threatened to thwart its U.S. operations.  The proposed transaction gained the blessing of senior Trump officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who saw value in an American company getting access to sophisticated TikTok algorithms that decide what videos users are
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ValueWalk

IRS to correct missing/wrong coronavirus stimulus checks errors

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There were several issues with the first round of stimulus checks. Many, who were eligible didn’t get the stimulus checks, while some got less than what they were eligible for. The IRS, previously, said it wouldn’t adjust such coronavirus stimulus checks errors until next year. Now we know that the agency could address some missing and wrong coronavirus stimulus checks this year.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

IRS to adjust missing/wrong coronavirus stimulus checks

Initially, the IRS noted that Americans who got stimulus checks of...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Slide After Trump Opens A "Most Unwelcome Can Of Worms" With TikTok, WeChat Executive Order

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

World stocks ended a four day rally overnight that pushed the MSCI World index to green for the year, after U.S. President Trump cranked up simmering tensions with China after late on Thursday has signed orders to ban Americans from transactions involving China’s ByteDance (TikTok’s parent) and WeChat (owned by Tencent), taking effect in 45 days. Furthermore, Trump’s Working Group on Financial Markets recommended that Chinese companies currently listed on US exchanges should be delisted if they do not become compliant w...



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Phil's Favorites

Post-COVID, there'll be less of a reason to cut company tax than before

 

Post-COVID, there'll be less of a reason to cut company tax than before

Andrey Bayda/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Janine Dixon, Victoria University and Jason Nassios, Victoria University

They’re at it again, pushing lower company tax as a way to resuscitate the economy.

The arguments were well ventilated at the time the government pushed for ...



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The Technical Traders

Everything You Need to Know About Silver... and More

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Listen to Chris talk with Jim about Silver on Silver Radio. Chris and Jim explore the effect on Silver prices if a Black Swan event occurs, potential bullion shortage. They also talk about silver shorts and the ‘natural’ price of silver but-for market manipulation. We still think Silver will be the Super Hero of metals! Listen up as all of your questions about silver are answered here.

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Headed Back To $50, Top Of The Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver be creating a multi-decade bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern? Possible!

Did a retest of a handle breakout take place in March at (1), where Silver created one of the largest bullish reversals in decades? Possible!

Could Silver be creating a 40-year bullish pattern? Anything is possible! I humbly have to say share this; I’ve been in the business for 40-years and I haven’t seen anything like this.

Silver looks to have double topped back in 2011 at $50, which was the 1980 highs. After double topping, Silver ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.