Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Which Way Wednesday – Stimulus Hopes Hold off Disaster (so far)

We're holding up so far.

We are flirting with disaster at the 3,420 line but, so far, it's holding up on endless promises of endless stimulus – currently over 10% of our GDP ($2Tn) is on the table to be pumped into our economy in the last 2 months of the year – just like we did in Q2 and that gave us a 20% pop in the S&P, from 3,000 in late June to 3,600 at the end of August.  The question now is, can $2,000,000,000,000 give the markets another 20% boost or is it only enough to fill the hole that's been blown in this economy by  the Covid Crisis?

Nancy Pelosi said she hoped that fresh stimulus spending would be retroactive, although Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell has warned the White House against a bigger Democrat-led deal before the election.  The administration said its offer is now up to $1.88Tn, below the $2.2Tn Pelosi has pushed for.  “The rise in yields suggests that the market thinks a stimulus deal will be forthcoming and that the Democrats are set to take both the presidency and the Senate at the Nov. 3 election,” said John Hardy, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Saxo Bank.

 

 

IN PROGRESS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Adam Smith would be a Democrat! Beware common clichés about economics.

 

Best-selling author and scientist David Brin shares another excerpt from his book, Polemical Judo, about the current war against democracy and how we can fight back. (Read the first, second and final chapter at the Contrary Brin Blog, and an excerpt from chapter 5, The War on All Fact People, here, and an excerpt from chapter 10, We are Different, Different is Difficult, here.)

 

Adam Smith would be a Democrat! Beware common clichés about economics.

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog

For the longest time, Donald Trump had one issue in which he led Joe Biden… "The Economy." And it drove me crazy! If there is one issue for which the evidence is overwhelmingly open-and-shut, it is the almost perfect record of better economic outcomes across the span of Democratic Administrations versus Republican ones. And yet, no DP politician seems remotely capable of making such a case, in debate or even in position papers.

Finally, last week, polls showed Biden pulling ahead on economics, as well. But no thanks to self-gelded Democratic Party polemics!

And so, let's resume publishing chapters of Polemical Judo with Chapter Eleven, on that very topic. And yes, this is a long one!  So again, I'll be splitting it in half. Because no one has the patience to read, anymore. (Read also: More on why OUTCOMES show Republican "economics" betrays markets, fiscal sense and the future: Chapter 11's second part.)

And yes, as always I have plenty to say about the week's events, as well. But this time I'll hold off, till the end. 

POLEMICAL JUDO – Chapter 11  

Economics –

No, you don’t get Adam Smith… and Other Rationalizations

“For as wealth is power, so all power will infallibly draw wealth to itself by some means or other.”

– Edmund Burke (1780)

In August 2019 a coalition of executives representing some of America’s largest companies issued a statement that redefines “the purpose of a corporation.”[1] No longer…
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Tipping Point Tuesday – Schrodinger’s Stimulus Moves the Market

Rumors are everywhere.

The President held another super-spreader event in Arizona yesterday and he has threatened to hold one every day up to the elecion until every last Republican is infected with the corona virus.  It is possible that Trump, a long-time Democrat until he decided to run for President, may have always had the goal of destroying ther GOP, who now fact humiliating defeat under his "leadership", a complete loss of power and now, even a loss of population as Covid-19 is spreading through the red states like a California fire.  

Speaking to supporters at the Prescott Regional Airport, Trump bashed CNN for its coverage of the pandemic, saying it’s all the network covers. “People aren’t buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards,” he said to loud applause.  Trump also referenced his own recent case of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. “If you have it, you have it, you get better,” Trump said (after over $100,000 worth of treatments). Over 220,000 Americans have died of COVID-19, with 5,830 deaths in Arizona alone – but at least they don't have to listen to any more of Trump's bullshit…

"Mr. President, you’re right about one thing: the American people are tired. They’re tired of your lies about this virus," Biden said in a written statement. "They’re tired of watching more Americans die and more people lose their jobs because you refuse to take this pandemic seriously. Now, more than ever, we need a leader to bring us together, put a plan in place, and beat this virus — but you have proven yourself yet again to be incapable of doing that."

Still, he might win – his followers are certainly loyal:

Meanwhile, it's all about the latest stimulus rumor for the market but nothing seems to be actually happening so, like yesterday – get ready to be disappointed.  The news isn't so good either so I find it very hard to be enthusaistic about the markets today:

 





China makes it incredibly hard for foreign businesses to operate – but they stay because the money is just too good

 

China makes it incredibly hard for foreign businesses to operate – but they stay because the money is just too good

A shipping container passes the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco bound for Oakland, Calif. AP Images/Eric Risberg

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

Doing business in China can be a difficult and contentious proposition for companies in many countries. Yet even with charges of intellectual property theft, forced partnerships and tight restrictions on doing business, China continues to attract foreign capital. Why do businesses want to invest in China when there are so many other “business-friendly” countries and financial markets that support foreign investment?

The United States has accused China of stealing the intellectual property of American firms, theft that is estimated at US$600 billion annually. As a precondition for doing business in China, American and other firms may be subjected to the forced transfer of their technology. In addition, regulations can require foreign investors to partner and set up a joint venture with a Chinese firm before they can do business in China.

The Great Hall of the People in Beijing where China's national Congress gathered.

The Chinese premier delivers the government work report at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, Pool

In 2001, after becoming a member of the World Trade Organization, China promised to open up its banking, telecommunications and electronic payment processing sectors. But action in these areas has been nonexistent or, at best, half-hearted. The Chinese telecommunications industry, for example, remains under government control, and the government has barred Facebook and Google from offering their services in China.

What’s in it for investors

Doing Business 2020, a publication of the World Bank, ranks China – in terms of the availability of credit and the ease and magnitude of tax payments – 80th and 105th, respectively, out of 190 nations in the world. Using 10 other indicators, such as protection offered to minority investors, registering property and enforcing contracts, China ranks 31st out of 190 nations in the world for the…
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The Week Ahead – Election Looms Large

Two weeks to go.

Two weeks ago the S&P was down at 3,350, down about 4% from where we are now so don't get complacent – especially into the elections and ESPECIALLY when Global Covid Cases topped 40M this weekend with 8.15M in the US and growing at 0.05M per day along with 220,000 deaths.

You KNOW Trump is lying about the virus, you KNOW Trump has been lying about it since day one.  You KNOW Trump is essentially doing nothing to stop it and I REALLY hate to be that guy every week but how can you let yourself be deluded by all this other nonsense when we are STILL right in the middle of a Global Crisis?  

Come on people, let's not rely on the lie to make us feel good.  This is the chart of how many people per 100,000 in the US are infected by the Corona Virus.  In May, I said I was very concerned because passing 1/250 (400 per 100,000) means that any time I went outside and walked down the street and walked into a store – I probably either passed an infected person or touched something they had touched and we now know the virus lasts a lot longer than we thought on surfaces.  

That was back in May.  Now it's October and 1/2,500 people were infected as we brilliantly ended our lockdown on Memorial Day Weekend to "save" Trump's economy and now 1/40 people are infected.  That means, if you go to a restaurant – even one that's 1/2 empty – you are likely there with an infected person and your children are in class with infected people and now you can't walk down the block without coming in contact with infected people and Trump is doing what to control it before it gets to 1/4 people?  What?  Name SOMETHING???

Our lives are at stake people – our actual lives!  220,000 Americans are dead an "only" 8M out of 330M have contracted the virus so far.  That means 40x more to go and 40x 2,200 is 8,800,000 dead – that's the entire population
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Caught in a Debt Trap

 

Caught in a Debt Trap

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

We're caught in a trap
I can't walk out
Because I love you too much baby

Elvis Presley’s rendition of Suspicious Minds topped the record charts in 1969. The lyrics portray a romance that couldn’t work, but was also impossible to escape. That’s also a good way to describe our relationship with government debt. We know it can’t last, but we can’t walk out. We love government spending and its benefits (like Medicare, Social Security, and unemployment insurance) too much.

In other words, we are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. As it does, paying the interest plus the accumulated debt load pulls more capital away from more productive uses. This depresses economic growth, thereby generating even more spending and debt.

This has to end, and I think it will do so in the event I’ve called The Great Reset. When I first started talking about The Great Reset, we weren’t in the debt trap. We were “merely” in a situation with only bad choices. I didn’t think we would make them. Thus the underlying presumption was that we would end up in a debt trap.

The Great Reset will be our escape from the debt trap. While there will be some winners and (probably more often) losers, it won’t be fun for anyone. And it all springs from the debt trap.

Today I’ll talk about how we got into this trap, why we can’t escape without completely resetting the taxation/spending structure, and what it is doing to the economy. Let me warn you: Some of this will get political—but not in the way you might expect.

Whatever your persuasion, you aren’t going to like this. Nor should you.

Diverted Capital

I have the great privilege of being able to talk to some of the finest economic minds in the country. Rarely a week goes by that I do not spend significant time on the phone with Dr. Lacy Hunt. He and Van Hoisington write in their most
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The State of Gen Z

 

The State of Gen Z

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I really enjoyed this Gen Z Trends Report from Zebra IQ.

Who is Gen Z?

Download the report and it might help you spot a few trends. Share it with your kids as well.

Have a great Saturday.





Losing money is the coolest!

 

Losing money is the coolest!

Courtesy of 

The newest episode of my podcast just went live!

Josh talks to Ben Carlson about how it is that over 400 companies in the Russell 3000 have lost money this year but posted an average stock market return of +57%. Over 100 companies that lost money in 2020 have actually seen their share price double! WTF is going on?

Dasarte Yarnway joins Josh to talk about his burgeoning financial advisory firm and the powerful message he’s been sharing throughout the industry: Spend time doing the things you value and the rest will fall into place. Dasarte is the founder of Berknell Financial Group and the host of the Young Money podcast. Dasarte wrote a chapter in the new book How I Invest My Money, now available for pre-order.

Plus: The Fastly blow-up this week may be more meaningful than you think, BlackRock says $1.4 trillion is sitting in mutual funds with negative 3-year returns, and is it Larry Kudlow’s responsibility to help you trade the pandemic?  Nope!

You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

And be sure to leave a rating and review – they go a long way!

Get it here:

Apple podcasts

Spotify podcasts

Google podcasts





Philstockworld October Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,566,572!  

That's up $361,550 for our paired portfolios since our September 18th review and we only made one change in our Long-Term Portfolio – selling 5 calls against our Berkshire Hathaway position.  The LTP went from $1,039,240 to $1,070,623 but the big move was the Tesla (TSLA) postion in the STP, that went from -$881,087 to -673,065 (including our 50% cash-out), accounting for over $200,000 of the gains.  Because of the cash-out, TSLA is now less volatile for us as we wanted to be sure our hedges were true hedges into the Elections, Earnings and the Holidays – all hitting us bang, bang, bang for the next and last 77 days of 2020.

We just did our STP review on Tuesday and we got much more aggressively short in order to cover our now $1M gain for the year.  It should be noted there was an error in the price of the SQQQ June $30 calls, which were sold for $8.50, not $11.70 (the put price) but, fortunately, our other positions acquited themselves and made up for the downward adjustment.  We're also half CASH!!! in the STP and that means we're flexible and ready to take advantag of earnings season and we will be looking for bullish bargains because we have PLENTY of downside protection at the moment.

  • UPRO is our new hedge and the short $50 puts are rollable so, in a catastrophe that brings us down to $30, we expect to be able to roll the short puts and end up with $400,000 from the long puts from our net $179,500 entry.  If that does not happen, then the short puts will pay us $20,500 in January (already in the net) and another $80,000 over the next 4 quarters so the net cost of our $400,000 insurance policy should be about $100,000 when all is said and done.  

  • CMG – has earnings next week (21st)
  • SQQQ – cost us net $58,000 and it's at least a $300,000 potential spread (rollable as well) and, of course, we will sell more short calls to pay down that $58,000


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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 10-14-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!

 

Major Topics:

00:04:31 – Checking on the Market
00:16:50 – WBA
00:26:42 – Trading Techniques
00:28:57 – Indices
00:31:14 – Visual Capitalist Chart: Business Closures
00:34:14 – Real GDP by State | Stimulus Package
00:47:00 – IPIC
00:51:32 – National Debt Clock
00:55:05 – Best Country to Live In
00:59:18 – COVID-19 Update
01:12:35 – More Trading Techniques
01:14:40 – XRT
01:15:32 – OSTK
01:18:32 – GPS
01:20:12 – STP
01:20:40 – LTP
01:26:14 – RH

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Mystery Trader Shocks Market With Giant VIX Put Trades

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While everyone is familiar with the exploits of the notorious vol trader Ruffer LLP, better known in the market as "50 cent" for his penchant for buying deep OTM VIX calls which while usually expiring worthless, occasionally make a killing, such as the $2.6 billion the fund made during the March crash when VIX soared, a new and heretofore unknown player has emerged in the vol space. And because this particular trader's bet appear to be on a reduction in volatility Perhaps we can call him minus 50 cent?

According to Bloomberg, which first reported the mystery trader's exploits, so large w...



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ValueWalk

COVID-19 Shocks Will Continue to Shape Future FX Market Structure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

COVID-19 Shocks Will Continue to Shape Future FX Market Structure – A New Premium on Sell-Side Relationships and Algos

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Tuesday, October 20, 2020 | Stamford, CT USA — Although day-to-day aspects of the foreign exchange (FX) market have largely returned to normal, disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will have a lasting impact on market structure and functionality.

COVID-19 Crisis Continue...

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Phil's Favorites

Buy stocks now or after the election?

 

Buy stocks now or after the election?

Courtesy of 

 

On an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick take on the biggest topics on Wall Street this week, including:

*The “pressure cooker of uncertainty” has many investors waiting with cash for the election to be over.
*Amazon is actually losing market share to the old category killers like Best Buy and Walmart, who are getting good at ecommerce.
*YOU ASKED: What should my strategy be, investing or trading?
*Which would produce the biggest rally, a vaccine approval or a signed stimulus bill?...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will 2020 Mark Historic Low For Interest Rates?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

US treasury bond yields have been trending lower for over 3 decades. Could the latest drop mark a significant low for bond yields and interest rates?

In today’s chart, we can see that interest rates have had several spike lows and highs, but that each low is lower and each high is lower. That’s the definition of a downtrend. BUT, each of these spike lows has resulted in big rallies within the downtrend channel. And each of these lows and subsequent rallies have been marked by significant momentum lows (see each green line and shaded box).

So is it time for short-term yields to rally?

Looking at the current set-up, we can see that yiel...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus reinfection cases: what we know so far - and the vital missing clues

 

Coronavirus reinfection cases: what we know so far – and the vital missing clues

By Sheena Cruickshank, University of Manchester

As President Trump claims that he is immune to COVID-19 and isolated reports emerge of reinfection, what is the truth about immunity to COVID-19?

To date, there have been six published ...



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Politics

Dan's Covid Charts: Blue States vs. Red States Over Time

 

The trend of lower Covid-19 case numbers per capita in blue states compared to red states isn't itself surprising, but the magnitude of the differences may be. You can visualize the evolving differences in case loads by watching the infection's progression, as measured by cases per capita, at Dan's website.

[Visit Dan’s COVID Charts to see these amazing animated charts and more. Fortunately, Dan broke his Twitter hiatus to share his work.]

People say I should break my 12-year Twitter hiatus to share my latest animated COVID chart. It compares state cases factoring in partisanship since June 1, when science had proven methodology as to how to stop the spread after the initial sucker punch. ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.