Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Non-Farm Friday – Back to Work Edition

COVID Small Business Resources in Chattanooga, TNWe're waiting on Payroll Data.

Last month, in the April Report, the US Economy lost 20.5M jobs and, though "experts" are expecting another loss of jobs – we re-opened much of America in the middle of May, so it's very possible we show a net gain for April as people got back to work.  Expectations for this report are for around 8.5M additional job losses but the Futures are antiipating a positive number and are already up 1%.

Keep in mind, of course, that's AFTER the Government created a $700Bn Paycheck Protection Program that handed out money to employers in exchange for not laying off their employees during the crisis.  Figure the average worker makes $5,000/month including wage deductions and that's 2 months so $700Bn/$10,000 = 70 MILLION JOBS that the Government paid to salvage – otherwise this could have been, by miles, the greatest loss of jobs in American history.

Maybe now you understand why the Republicans were suddenly cooperating with the Democrats and supporting that stimulus package.  It's very hard to be re-elected when 50% of the voters don't have jobs!

ImageThat's why this jobs report tells you nothing about the real health of the economy.  It's a fiction that's been concocted by the Government so the people are not generally aware of how hard-hitting this disaster has been.  Yesterday, they were already talking about another $1Tn of stimulus by the end of June – anything to keep Q2 GDP from being down more than 50% – which is the current forecast by the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

8:30 Update:  Wow, we did get a gain of 2.5M jobs – that's great and miles better than the low expectations set by leading Economorons.  That puts our Unemployment Rate at 13.3%, MUCH better than 20% expected though Average Hourly Earnings fell 1% and that's not good for the workers but GREAT FOR WALL STREET (isn't everything?).  

Doesn't matter why, the Futures are up like a rocket though, in keeping with the theme of the last two weeks – unemployment for Black people still rose 2% - which makes sense since we've already reported that very little of the PPP money made it into the hands…
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The Weekly Webinar – 06-03-2020


For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!


Major Topics:

00:01:26 – Checking on the Market
00:5:00 – Petroleum Status Report
00:15:09 – Chatroom
00:16:45 – REIT
00:22:36 – Trading Techniques | New Trades
00:54:18 – S&P 500
01:01:12 – The Great Depression
01:14:31 – COVID-19 Update
01:25:22 – Cinemark
01:28:40 – IMAX
01:31:35 – Tiffany

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here

3,100 Thursday – S&P 500 Tests Our 10% Line


That's the 10% line above our Must Hold Level of 2,850 on the S&P 500.  If we can get over that and hold it, then we will have secured the rising 50-day moving average which will "Life Cross" over the 200-day moving average around June 19th and THAT would be a very bullish set-up into the summer – assuming the re-opening is getting into full swing by then.

So TECHNICALLY, the markets are in good shape but let's keep in mind that it cost us $6.7Tn to buy this technical rally and it's likely to cost another $2.3Tn to keep it going and that will put the National Debt around $28Tn more than 3 TIMES the $9Tn of debt we had in 2007 – before the Financial Crisis.  $10Tn was added during Obama's 8 years in office and now another $10Tn is being added during just 4 years of Trump (so far) – that's a much faster pace than Covid was spreading back when Trump said we shouldn't worry because we only had 5 cases in the US!

ImageSo the running cost of papering over a Recession seems to be about $10Tn but I'm not sure we're papering over this Recession – so far we're just boosting the market DESPITE the terrible economy.  The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now Forecast shows a projected 52% drop in Q2 GDP while the range of private forecasts projects only a 25% decline.  

That's a huge discrepancy – usually they are off by no more than 1% but it will take until July 30th before we get our first official estimate of Q2 GDP so, until then – let the speculators have their fun.  

Tomorrow we get the actual Non-Farm Payroll Report for May and it will be very hard to top April's loss of over 20M jobs, which wiped out all the jobs gained by Trump and all of the jobs gained by Obama so we're right back to the level of employment we had during the Bush crisis – which cost us $10Tn to get out of.   

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ADP Employment Data Massively Beats Expectations

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Ahead of what will likely be another disastrous non-farm payrolls print this Friday, ADP was expected to show a slowing in the surge in joblessness (from 20.236mm in April to 9mm in May), but ADP massively beat expectations with a 'mere' 2.76mm jobs lost.

“The impact of the COVID-19 crisis continues to weigh on businesses of all sizes,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, cohead of the ADP Research Institute.

“While the labor market is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, job loss likely peaked in April, as many states have begun a phased reopening of businesses.”

Source: Bloomberg

The Services sector continues to bleed jobs faster than manufacturing…

…with large businesses dominating the lost jobs…

The Education sector somehow managed to gain 166k jobs in May?

We don't have an explanation for this massive beat but it seems like there is some outlier adjustment here give the massive spike in jobless claims during this period.

And even ADP admits it has no idea:

The report utilizes data through the 12th of the month. The NER uses the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey. As such, the May NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 on the overall employment situation.

Which Way Wednesday? Just Kidding – Markets only go Up!

The Bear Will Not End Until The Fed Is Buying Stock ETFs | Seeking ...Yawn!

This is getting boring.  Every day the stock market goes up and up while we read about the Protests and the Riots and the Cold War with China and the Unemployment and the Virus and the Debt and the Economic Slowdown….  None of that matters on Wall Street because the World's Central Banks printed $20,000,000,000,000 of new money this year and almost all of that money went into the stock market.  So much so that the Fed now directly buys ETFs.

The five largest purchases by the Fed, in order, were iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCIT), Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCSH), iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR (JNK).

Free Markets Are Dead: Fed To Start Buying Junk Bonds, High Yield ...That's right, the Fed now buys junk bonds and the majority of these ETFs are managed by Blackrock (BLK), who also runs the Fed's debt-buying programs (once again, the Fed is NOT a Government Agency – it is a Banking Cartel made up of Bankers to protect the interests of Bankers).  Still, even for bankers, this seems a little fishy.

Buying Junk Bonds is a round-about way of giving CASH!!! to Corporations but in a way that the average American does not understand.  The companies issue bonds that normally would not get purchased at low interest rates but the Fed steps in and buys them all at the issue price so they are effectively giving the companies ($148Bn in Q1) loans far below the fair market value and ignoring the risks involved.  Since the only people that can be hurt by this are the taxpayers – why the F not?  

That $148Bn will be dwarfed by the Q2 lending, which is still underway and you can see what a party this is for Blackrock, whose stock jumped 20% on massive volume as the Fed started buying everything they had to sell.  This is simply a long-term game-changer for BLK and other Junk Peddlers – ALL bonds get sold – no one goes Bankrupt.

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Momentum Monday – Rioting, Looting and Froth


Momentum Monday – Rioting, Looting and Froth

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

[Originally published on June 1.]

I joked on Saturday on Twitter that ‘The FED would do an emergency rate cut on Sunday to stoop the riots'.

Combine riots and looting with some of the frothy sentiment signals I am seeing in the streams I would not be surprised at a strong pullback.

This weekend there were hundreds of peaceful protests and too many scenes of violence. It was heartbreaking to see videos and pictures including the Coronado bridge being closed down for the day as police stood guard. [Below.]

As always, Ivanhoff and I did our Momentum Monday and we went a little longer and covered a lot of ground because of the sentiment I mentioned above and the wide range of stocks breaking out and doing well. I also ate some bacon and smoked a cigar to celebrate the $VIX dropping below 30.

You can watch/lesten to the video here.

We could not get my screenshare working so here are some other links and charts I wanted to share.

All Star Charts monthly recap is always great.

I loved this chart from Strategas – maybe it means something bad, but good luck timing it. I sense as a country we have never been as overdiversifed and underdiversified at the same time. [Below]

In the private markets ‘the Doordash pizza arbitrage‘ is both genius and stupid. On the heels of the Softbank debacles, it seems like we are pushing our luck.

We have had a ‘V’ recovery in the indexes and you have to squint to see the ‘V’ recovery in consumer confidence. Makes me nervous. [Below.]

If you find yourself bearish this week have a look at the data compiled by Ryan Detrick on the breadth surge in stocks since April and what it means for the markets one year out. I have bookmarked it under ‘buy the dips’.

Finally – last month on this blog I mentioned
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Tuesday Turmoil – Trump Threatens More Violence

This is how we now treat Freedom of Speech and Assembly in America.

Day 7 of the protests and the President is ratcheting up the rhetoric, telling the Governors they have to "DOMINATE" the streets and, yesterday afternoon, in a scene you would think was from a movie where they want to establish that the Leader is an evil man who could not care less about his people, a PEACEFUL crowd was violently cleared from the President's path so he could walk to a church, hold up a prop Bible and make a speech threatening to use the US military to put an end to the protests.  

This is the point in the movie where you cut away to the heroes working from their basements with a plan to overthrow the monstrous tyrant, right?  Well, here's two such heroes who are willing to speak up – one from an attic and one from a garage:

And how are the markets reacting to the violence and the chaos all across America?  Well the Dow Futures are up 170 points (0.666%) this morning at 25,630 and if that's not a sign to short /YM, I don't know what is!  There is now a total disconnect between the markets and reality as many stocks are now making all-time highs on the premise that the pandemic is ending – which it clearly is not.

On Friday morning, we had 1,734,586 infections in the US and just over 100,000 deaths in Trumpland.  This morning we have 1,811,277 infections and 105,147 deaths so, in 4 days, we have 76,619 NEW infections – almost as many as China had TOTAL – and we've had 1,200 American's per day DIE of the virus.  1,200 per day is a rate of 438,000 per year and, of course, those people are disproportionately black so at what point would you take to the streets to fight for your people and your children's right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness – the principles this country were once founded upon?

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The COVID Comeback


The COVID Comeback

Courtesy of Wade Slome, Investing Caffeine

Rocky Balboa (“The Italian Stallion”) the underdog boxer from the movie, Rocky, was down and out until he was given the opportunity to fight World Heavyweight Champion, Apollo Creed. Like the stock market during early 2020, Rocky was up against the ropes and got knocked down, but eventually he picked himself up and rebounded to victory in his rematch with Creed.

The stock market comeback also persisted last month as the COVID-19 pandemic health situation continued to stabilize and the broader economy accelerated business re-openings. For the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased +4.3% (+1,037 points to 25,383), while the S&P 500 index bounced+5.3%, and the NASDAQ catapulted the most by +6.8%.

How can the stock market (i.e., the Dow) rebound +39%, or more than 7,100 points, from the March 2020 lows? The large move is even more surprising once you consider 41 million people have lost their jobs since the epidemic hit American soil (see chart below), and COVID-19 related deaths have climbed to over 100,000 people.

Source: PBS

Getting Back to Fighting Shape

By the time we reached Rocky VI, Rocky Balboa was retired and recovered from brain damage. But Rocky is no quitter, and he trained himself into championship fighting condition and got back into the boxing ring. With unemployment rates approaching Great Depression levels, the U.S. economy has been experiencing challenging circumstances as well – a self-induced coma (shutdown). Fortunately, our country has been slowly recovering day-by-day, and week-by-week. The economy may not be back to peak fighting shape, but activity is slowly and consistently getting better.

There are many different perspectives in looking at this extremely complex, unprecedented coronavirus pandemic. The speed and pace of selling stocks during February and March reached radically-high panic levels, as…
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Monday Marching Madness

George Floyd Death - NBC News | NBC NewsThe First Amendment is getting a workout this weekend! 

Usually the Second Amendment gets all the attention as it's backed by the gun lobby but the First Amendment needs a lobbyist it seems as the President is attacking the Freedom of the Press and Speech – which used to be a big one in this country that we cared deeply about – and now "the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances" is under attack as well

And what is the grievance?  Well, the sign below says it all.  While killing black people is a daily event in the US with 7,666 of "them" killed by the police in the past 6 years for an average of actually 3.5 each and every day in America.  It's one of those things we know is happening but we accept.  We were upset about it for a while (body cams) but then WE forgot (and WE is, of course, white people because I don't think it's the kind of thing you forget if you are black) but then George Floyd was tortured and murdered right on camera for using a counterfeit $20 bill that he may have had no idea was counterfeit.  

Floyd was a bouncer in a club, he ended up with a fake $20 bill and spent it.  He was also a truck driver (because everyone needs 2 jobs in Trumpland) to support his wife (widow) and daugter (now fatherless).  Living in Minnesota is always risky for black men, who are 4 times more likely to be killed by the police than white men – despite making up just 5% of the population.

Data dive: Racial disparities in Minnesota traffic stops

I want to be able to go in a White neighborhood and feel safe.  I want to be able, when the cops are driving behind me, not to clench and be tense.  I want to be able just to be free and not have to think about every step I take. – Protester

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Dying to Work


Dying to Work

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Most of Europe and all fifty states of the US are in various stages of “reopening.” But why, exactly?

The pandemic is still with us. After the first tentative steps to ease the lockdown in Germany – the most successful large European country to halt the spread of the virus thanks to massive testing – the disease has shown signs of spreading faster.

At least Germany is opening slowly and waiting until almost no new cases are occurring there, as is the rest of the EU.  

By contrast, the United States – with the highest death rate and most haphazard response to Covid-19 of any advanced nation – is opening chaotically, each state on its own. Some states are lifting restrictions overnight, although relatively few tests for the virus have been conducted. 

Researchers expect the reopenings to cause thousands of additional deaths.

?Two weeks after Texas Governor Greg Abbott began reopening the state’s economy, Texas experienced the single-highest rise in cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Since Nebraska reopened May 4, Covid-19 cases in Colfax County alone have surged 1,390 percent

Experts warn that Dallas, Houston, Southeast Florida’s Gold Coast, the entire state of Alabama and several other places in the South that have rapidly reopened their economies are in danger of a second wave of coronavirus infections over the next four weeks.

Last week, Ford Motor reopened its large North American assembly plants. The following day Ford closed and then reopened its Chicago Assembly plant twice in less than 24 hours after two workers tested positive for Covid-19. On Then Ford temporarily shut its Dearborn, Michigan Truck plant after an employee tested positive, then promptly resumed operations.

So why “reopen” so abruptly, when Covid-19 continues to claim lives?

The main reason given is to get the economy moving again. But this begs the question of why an economy exists in the first place, other than to promote the wellbeing of people within it.

Both Ford plants are vital to its profitability, and Ford’s profitability is important to jobs in the Midwest. But surely the…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the 39 Year Treasury Bond Bull Market Over?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield “inverted” Chart

This chart should look familiar, as I’ve shared and updated it a few times to alert clients and readers.

It is the 10 Year US Treasury Yield Chart… inverted.

As you know, bond yields and price move in opposite directions. So this is a way to analyze and think about bonds. And as I’ve pointed out before, inverted charts can also reduce bias.

As you can see, bond yields created the largest reversal pattern in decades. When inverted (as this chart is), yields look like bond prices. So this is action is very bearish for bond prices on a long-term historic...

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May job figures just as shocking as April, but in a positive direction

By Refinitiv. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Jeoff Hall, Managing Economist, Refinitiv, while discussing May jobs figures, comments:

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Stunning May Jobs Figures

“We are almost as stunned by the May jobs figures as we were by the prior month's figures. The economy added back 2.5 mn jobs in May , more than 12% of the 20.6 million jobs lost in April. Even the most optimistic forecasts called for payrolls to have shrank another 8%. The reversal was even more striking in the private sector, where payrolls rebounded by  3.1 mn, recapturing more than 15% of the 19.724 mn jobs lost in April. Or take a look at the ...

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Phil's Favorites

BlackRock Authored the Bailout Plan Before There Was a Crisis - Now It's Been Hired by three Central Banks to Implement the Plan

Courtesy of Pam Martens

BlackRock Authors of “Going Direct.” Top, left to right: Stanley Fischer, Philipp Hildebrand. Bottom, left to right: Jean Boivin, Elga Bartsch.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 5, 2020 ~

It’s called “Going Direct.” That’s the financial bailout plan designed and authored by former central bankers now on the payroll at BlackRock, an  investment manager of $7 trillion in stock and bond funds. The plan was rolled out in August 2019 at the G7 summit of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming &#...

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Zero Hedge

Crude Jumps Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting Slated For Saturday 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (0845ET): WTI prices accelerated higher after the jobs data...

*  *  *

Crude prices jumped on Friday morning following a report that OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, will hold an online meeting on Saturday to discuss the possibility of extending historic output cuts by at least a month amid collapsing demand for crude and crude products following coronavirus lockdowns. 


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Compare the flu pandemic of 1918 and COVID-19 with caution - the past is not a prediction


Compare the flu pandemic of 1918 and COVID-19 with caution – the past is not a prediction

A pandemic from a century ago doesn’t necessarily chart the course of the pandemic happening now. National Photo Company Collection/Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division/Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division, CC BY

Courtesy of Mari Webel, University of Pittsburgh and Megan Culler Freeman, ...

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The Technical Traders

Gold & Silver "Washout" - Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd.  Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals.  This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.

With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc.  We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels.  The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplit...

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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due


US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...

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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve


Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...

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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking


Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  


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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.