Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

TGIF – Dow’s Down Week Comes to a Close

8 days a week

Well, 8 days in a row that the Dow has been down after topping out at 25,400 back on June 11th and having tested 24,400 for an even 1,000-point drop yesterday afternoon.  That's right about a 4% correction on the nose and the 5% line is 24,130 so, if we assume that is the full pullback (not yet completed), then the fall is 1,270 points and we'll call that 1,250 and look for 250-point bounces so a weak bounce would be 24,380, which is the 4% line again and the strong bounce, to the 3% line, would be 24,630 so that's the line we need to see the Dow take and hold today in order to be impressed.  In fact, 24,658 is the 50-day moving average on the Dow – so let's make sure we get those extra 28 points too! 

 The Dow is down 1% for the year so up 1% (250 points to 24,750) is also very important to make.  Meanwhile, as you can see from the chart above, the Nasdaq is still up 12% for the year – though we made a lovely $5,535 on Wednesday's short position (see yesterday's Morning Report) and we HOPE it bounces back towards our shorting line at 7,300 so we can do it again.  

As I said to our Members in our Live Chat Room yesterday morning:

I'm still on the 6,500 bandwagon but I don't know when so better to make $1,000 80 times than spend 3 months waiting for a big drop! 

Well, now we can cross 5 of those 80 times off the list!  Overall, it's just been a small correction but it's more the failure at the top that we're watching, and we'll see if we can retest that next week.  As I noted earlier in the week – nothing really matters unless the NYSE can retake 12,800 and I doubt we'll even get to test that today so it's a "watch and wait" day into the weekend.

The big news today is, of…
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The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 06-20-18

 

The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 06-20-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

 

Major Topics:

00:01:44 – Market Highlights
00:06:14 – OPEC | Oil
00:12:05 – Trade Ideas
00:16:04 – NYC
00:21:56 – AT&T
00:25:15 – Disney
00:27:27 – Selling PUTS
00:30:00 – Selling Bonds
00:33:35 – June Portfolio Review
00:35:00 – More Trade Ideas
00:47:52 – GIS
00:51:08 – Long TermPortfolio
00:52:30 – Selling Premium & other trade tips
01:05:46 – Gold
01:15:08 – Trade & Tariffs

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Thrilling Thursday – Asia Takes Trade War Seriously, Americans Oblivious

Image result for quiet placeAs long as you are quiet, the monsters can't get you.

While it's a fun plot for a movie, it dosn't play out very well as a trading premise and just because we choose to ignore problems, doesn't mean they will go away – or leave us alone.  The market was heading back up into the close and again in the Futures but then those dummies at Dailmer had to make a sound (a profit warning due to tariffs) that sent all the EU auto-makers lower

This isn't about Trump's tariffs, this is about the Chinese tariffs that are a retaliation to Trump's tariffs to which he has threatened to retaliate with more tariffs which will, of course, cause China to retaliate with even more tariffs and so on and so on – we're only in the first inning of this game!  Both Dailmer and BMW are down over 5% for the week now after dropping 4% this morning in EU trading and EU markets are down about 1% but the US Futures are flat because we still think we can sneak past all the monsters without getting hurt.

Yesterday, in our Live Trading Webinar, we discussed some of the many reasons we were not going to chase the indexes higher and, in fact, we took a short on the Nasdaq as it tested 7,330 and caught a nice dip back to 7,300 for a $600 per contract gain and this morning we'll look for a chance to short it again as it's up for no reason.

We're still not a believer in the "rally" until we see the NYSE get back over that 12,800 line and we're about 1% away from it now and it's very, very doubtful that we'll get there today, no matter how quiet the US investors are.  

 

In fact, on the NYSE, we are wathing for a failure at 12,600 (the 200-dma), which would signal the very strong possibility of a leg down for the indexes.  We still have our long hedge on the Nasdaq and our 10 QQQ 2020 $220 calls from our June 12th Morning Report at $2,000 are already $2,550 for a 27.5% gain even though QQQ is only at $177.25, up $2.25 or 1.3% so we…
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Hostages

 

Hostages

Courtesy of 

Guys have price targets for where they think the S&P 500 will end the year. That’s nice.

A lot of these targets are clustered around 3000, which is a big, fat round level that looks great in headlines – super clickable – and is easy to remember. All you do is take what you think earnings will be for the next two quarters and then your best guess at where next year’s consensus estimates will fall out come this November and you can back into a multiple from there: “Where will interest rates be, what might sentiment look like, add a little bit for repatriation of cash, subtract a bit for increased interest expense, factor in Europe, a dash of oil prices, discount a bit for the political noise, carry the one….THREE THOUSAND!”

Wishing everyone luck with their targets. Some will win, some will lose. Some were born to _____.

Anyway, the big monkey wrench circa the summer of ’18 is the trade war. Sorry, “tariff debate.”

We’re all hostages to what might happen, who might get screwed, who might turn around and screw us back harder, whether or not it cools off, whether or not it escalates, will it include the EU, NAFTA and China, what concessions and exemptions and for which industries, and on and on. There’s absolutely no reason for you to believe that you can predict the outcome for any of these questions. But the outcomes will absolutely be material for the sales and earnings of US stocks and even the consumer economy in the second half of this year. We can argue about the degrees of materiality and whether or not the red-hot domestic situation will dwarf any impact from it, but it’s the big question mark.

I think it’s part of the reason you’ve seen money pour into technology stocks and the Russell small caps all year. People think they’ll be immune or less susceptible to whatever’s coming. Okay, maybe, maybe not.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average being down on the year slightly while the S&P 500 has gained 4% or so makes sense. The word “Industrial” is literally in its name.…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – NYSE 12,800 Edition

Coming back or just bouncing?  

12,800 is the Must Hold line on the NYSE, meaning it's very bearish to be below that on the broad index and we finished the day yesterday at 12,638 and, so far, this morning's bounce isn't going to fix things.  Back on May 26th, when the NYSE last tested 12,800, my notes from the Morning Report were:

It's still all about the NYSE and whether it's over or under that 12,800 line but I remember a time when the Dow and the NYSE would run completely neck and neck.  That has gone completely out the Window as the headline index has been jammed 17% higher since Donald Trump was put in power by the USSR so thank you Putin – I guess…

The NYSE is right where we expected the market to be given that tax cuts, repatriation of capital and buybacks that have boosted the indexes over the past year plus.  On the other hand, the Dow is silly and the Nasdaq is sillier and we're back to a 1998/1999 market, where Fundamentals don't matter (for now) and people are paying ridiculous forward multiples for stocks in the belief that this party is never going to stop and there's no piper to be paid.  Is this time different?  Don't bet on it!  

The broad-market index has been trading in the lower part of a very tight range since February and, of course, the Dow is red for the year so the bulls are, at the moment, left with the over-priced Nasdaq and the narrowly-focused Russell 2000 Indexes to hang their hats on and we're still expecting a 10% correction in the Nasdaq, from 7,200 to 6,500 – before the summer ends.  That's why we haven't been jumping in to buy things – we don't think these little "sales" are bargains at all.

As you can see, the Nasdaq is way up in its range, over our 7,200 mark but we're not putting on the 7,500 hats just yet as that requires Apple (AAPL)…
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Chart o’ the Day: US Stocks > Everything

 

Chart o’ the Day: US Stocks > Everything

Courtesy of 

Last year was a great year for US stocks but an even better year for markets around the world.

So far, at almost the halfway point of 2018, this has mostly reversed itself. The world is being led by the Nasdaq 100, followed by the Russell 2000 index of US small caps, followed by the S&P 500’s US large cap index.

Just about everything else has reversed into the negative.

Here’s what it looks like:

Only the US has seen massive tax cut activity and the economic stimulus that’s come along with it. The question becomes whether or not this ends up being a transitory boost that wears off when we begin lapping this data in the first quarter of 2019 – or, if it becomes a self-sustaining “virtuous cycle” where people and corporations spend more because they’re making more.

It’s interesting to see this considering the fact that the US is the only major economy to have hiked interest rates and a complete cessation of emergency stimulus measures. Japan and Europe are still engaging in extraordinary measures and god only knows what China is doing.





Trade War Tuesday – Trump Fires off Another $200Bn in Tarrifs, China Fires Back

Image result for trump china trade warWheeeeeeee!!! 

Isn't this fun?  Diplomacy via twitter is a case of voters getting exactly what they deserve and we'll see how much the market suffers for it.  We gave you hedges yesterday that can turn $2,000 into $10,000 and it's the same hedge I gave you two weeks ago that could turn $500 into $10,000 so I don't feel at all bad when I say "I told you so" as I ranted on and on all month about how this was going to escalate and end badly

This, by the way, is not the end, this is just the beginning as Trump the First has asked for ANOTHER $200Bn worth of tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for the $34Bn worth of tariffs they put on our goods which was a retailiation against the $50Bn we put on their goods first.   

The new duties will go into effect "if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced," the president said in a statement provided by the White House late on Monday.  Meanwhile, Trump is fighing Congress tooth and nail to REMOVE sanctions against ZTE – because he was paid $500M to do that, so the real message to China is "PAY ME!"  This is why you don't negotiate with terrorists – it only makes them come back for more…

Beijing has already said they will retailiate, saying: "This practice of extreme pressure and blackmail deviates from the consensus reached by both parties on many occasions and is disappointing for the international community. The United States has initiated a trade war that violates market laws and is not in accordance with current global development trends," the Commerce Ministry said.

Image result for putin laughing animated gifSeriously people, let's step back for a second to consider that CHINA has just accused the US of BLACKMAIL and of violating International Laws and undermining diplomacy – all in one paragraph!  President Trump is undoing 70 years of hard-faught diplomatic steps that have given us 70 years of relative peace and prosperity.  Who actually benefits from Trump single-handedly upending the World Order? 

The clock is now…
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These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

What I thought was a major career failure turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to my career ~ by Blair duQuesnay

Learn to love the micro-stakes arena ~ by Tommy Tranfo

If things like research department headcount or manager tenure had any predictive value, then you could throw away your Bloomberg terminal and just use LinkedIn ~ by Josh Brown

Capital gains is a hell of a drug. ~ by Nick Maggiulli

Debt is a perennial worry ~ by Urban Carmel

We all begin as novice investors ~ by Barry Ritholtz

Social Security is the greatest source of income for the typical American household ~ by Tony Isola

He didn’t care who’s son I was and for that, I thank him ~ by Phil Huber

Needless to say, “staying away” from positive returns is not the best investment strategy ~ by Charlie Bilello

The only difference between the lucky and the rest is that the lucky just live a little farther inland ~ by Damon Young

Then in the summer of 1915, something unexpected happened — the economy took off like a rocket. ~ by Ben Carlson

Investment mythology is littered with Ragnarok-styled blow-ups ~ by Corey Hoffstein

The rhymes between today and the late-’90s are close enough that some veteran market participants are singing along ~ by Michael Santoli

Podcasts

There’s a lot of information in the world that’s not in the market ~ with Patrick O’Shaughnessy and Michael Reece

There is our memory and there is the truth, and the two are not the same ~ with Malcolm Gladwell

One dollar is the best price point god ever made ~ with Barry Ritholtz and Cal Turner Jr. 

It wasn’t just making money, you were backing a horse ~ with Ted Seides and Tom Lydon

People get mad at inevitability ~ with Bill Simmons and Bryan Curtis

Books

The long term is fuzzy at best ~ by Brian Portnoy

All pictures via Pixabay.





Monday Market Meltdown – Merkel Mayhem Makes Markets Morose

Wheeeeeee!!!

It's about time our hedges made some money!  As you know, we've remained cautious, even while making money on the long side and, just this weekend, in our June Portfolio Review, I said to our Members:  "I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid."  

We're very well-hedged so a dip like this is simply amusing and it's miles to go before we even get back to the strong bounce line at 2,728, which had been the top of our range since February.  Unless we fall back below that line on the S&P (/ES) this is just a minor pullback and we're still in bullish territory though failing at the 2,800 line (again), which is where we ran into trouble in March before pulling back 200 points (7%).  

7% is right about the pullback we are expecting but we expected it from 2,728 – this move back to 2,800 has been a bonus round so far.  Above the 2,800 line, we have to capitulate and get more bullish – no matter how much we don't trust the rally but that certainly isn't a problem we'll have to deal with today, as we're down around 2,764 so far in the Futures.

If you feel under-hedged, you can use a play similar to the DXD play we gave you in our 6/7 Morning Report, when I said:

That's how hedges are supposed to work – they are insurance policies and keeping our portfolios well-hedged is the only way we can sensibly keep long positions after they've already gained 20% for the year.  

Maybe this is a full-blown 1998/1999 rally but we've got PLENTY of longs so all we're worried about now is whether or not we


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Philstockworld June Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$817,961!  

Now we're up $217,961 (36%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios and that's up $44,185 from our last review, when I said I'd rather cash out than continue to risk our, at the time, 28.9% gains.  Since we didn't cash out, we pressed our hedges AND since the market kept going up, we added more longs and, so far – it's all working out.  As I said last month, as long as the indexes are holding their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger and this market seems to shake off everything that's thrown at it – so far.

On the whole, we haven't made too many adjustments to any of our portfolios this month as they are on a very good track and fairly well-balanced.  Do keep in mind that we are failing (so far) at the lower high of 2,800 on the S&P (/ES), but once we're over that line – we have to seriously consider a whole new leg of the rally may be forming.

We still have $369,258 in cash and about $1M in margin remainin in our Long-Term Portfolio, so we're very flexible and that portfolio is our MOST invested.  I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid.  

Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) Part 1:  $643,761 is up an embarrassing $45,252 (9%) since our 5/17 review where I said I'd rather cash out ahead of the summer and come back in the fall.  Luckily, you guys didn't let me take a nice vacation and we still have all these positions, which we hedged more heavily in the STP (see earlier review).  Overall, we're up 28.8% for the year but that's 2% lower than yesterday – so it's a very volatile number and shouldn't be taken too seriously.  

Since we decided to stay in and since we had a lot of hedges, we picked up a bunch of new trades in the past month (always try to balance longs and shorts while selling premium). …
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Phil's Favorites

The Bezos-Buffett-Dimon health care venture: Eliminate the middlemen

 

The Bezos-Buffett-Dimon health care venture: Eliminate the middlemen

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway, Jeff Bezos of Amazon and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase created a health venture in January. AP File Photos.

Courtesy of J.B. Silvers, Case Western Reserve University and Mark Vortruba, Case Western Reserve University

The new health care venture formed by ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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Zero Hedge

Is This Why Germany Repatriated 583 Tons Of Gold?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authord by Tom Lewis via GoldTelegraph.com,

Before declaring bankruptcy, Lehman Bros. had $639 billion in assets. It was thought to be too big to fail. Currently, Deutsche Bank has almost triple those assets, $1.7 trillion, but its future is in question. The bank’s net income plummeted by 80 percent from its 2017 level. The Federal Reserve has labeled Deutsche Bank’s US opera...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

6 Stocks To Watch For June 22, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) to report quarterly earnings at $1.24 per share on revenue of $4.59 billion before the opening bell. CarMax shares fell 0.63 percent to $70.60 in after-hours trading.
  • Red Hat Inc (NYSE: RHT) reported better-than-expected results ...


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Chart School

Large Caps Feel the Heat as Semiconductors Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them.  Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.

The Dow sell-off didn't stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.


Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly ...

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Biotech

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...



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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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