Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels.
Your levels:
Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402
My sceen is showing:
Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404
Jordan
Phil I must say that it was really nice to have a portfolio that was looking very stable in the face of a rough day for the markets. I ended the day up 0.3% which includes another successful day of futures trading. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, DIS, etc., along with a couple of hedges that paid off nicely today, and my futures trades, I never had to break a sweat during that madhouse today. Yes, by George (or Phil), I may be learning this system!
Craig
I have been a member off and on for years. Using these techniques I do consistently beat the S&P 500. Phil's Stock World has been the most important site in my financial life. It's impact on me over the past years has been huge. As have my tax bills!
Knightpilot
Phil you are great, and not only is your market info spot on but you have the courage to call it like it is and write about it in a great tone.
Flanger
I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.
Pstas
Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)
Winston
Probably the best approach and method I have ever seen for the public and I have worked for some serious traders at the biggest houses doing research. Those guys all have various forms of inside info that you and I do not and cannot have. Davis simply has a great system based on a very deep understanding and experience that gives him market savvy that is very real. A very smart guy and he shares it for a fee. He knows how to use options to great advantage and make money trading.
DowntoEarthThinking
Thank you so much for the good daily news in review Phil. I love your commentary! It is such a breath of fresh air in the smog cluttered news networks.
RJRoberts
On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.
Iflantheman
Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!
Zeroxzero
Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!
Where
Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.
RMM
Phil/thankyou. Phil, I went over the recording of last weeks webinar. I liked it a lot and wanted to thank you. I thought the case studies (company reviews) were detailed, I learned more about selling puts process and also what happens if stock continues to go down after that, I liked the fact that we discuss so many different avenues like stocks, optiond, futures, oil, commodities etc… I replayed portions of it multiple times to make sure I was grasping it but wanted to say good job. Thanks…
Nramanuja
Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.
Ricpar
Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.
Bcfla
Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...
Becker
I subscribed to Phils Stock World full service for a year or so and found that it was extremely helpful. Now I just get the Stock World Weekly summary, which I find invaluable.
Phil does not baby people and certainly can't make someone into a successful stock operator who does not make the effort on their own behalf, but he is extremely generous with his time in answering newbie questions.
Although I found it difficult to follow and implement all his trades in real time, what I did find was that once you got the hang of his methodology and way of thinking, you could work out your own trades and be quite successful. Even just using his patent Rule Number One* alone is worth its weight in gold. Rule Number Two is even better.
Rookie IRA Investor
WOW, glad I went bearish… Phil, thanks for the help on the QID calls yesterday, I turned it into a partial cover rolling down to the Feb 52s selling the 55s 1/2 covered. Sold 1/2 and now lowered my cost basis to $4.38 on the $52s (fully covered).
Texasmotion
Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.
IHS4GOD
Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).
JJennings
Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.
Acd54
Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.
Winston
I'd like to wish Phil and everyone else that contributes to this board a very Merry Christmas and happy New Year. The wealth of knowledge on here is incredible, and it has greatly contributed to my understanding of markets, politics, and the world in general. This year was when Phil's teachings all seemed to click in place, and my portfolio's performance shot up, and for that I am very grateful. Thank you!
Palotay
Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you!
I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure.
I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options.
You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.
Redfern1
I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.
Dennis
Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….
Barfinger
I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.
David
Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )
Iflantheman & Gel1
Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!
Neverworkagain
I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for a valuable team member in its in-store delis, according to Yahoo! Finance.
While Flippy had somewhat of a rocky start at a Pasadena, California burger joint – having to be taken offline after its human co-workers couldn't prepare patties fast enough, the robot has had more recent success flipping 17,000 pounds of chicken tenders and tater tots at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
"Walmart saw what we were doing and said, ‘Could you bring Flippy from Dodgers Stadium to our Culinary Institute?" said Miso Robotics CEO David Zito.
Yahoo Finance visited Flippy to see it in action at Walmart’s Culinary Institute and Innovation Center.
The way it works is Flippy automates the frying process for many of the items served in the deli, including chicken tenders, mozzarella sticks, and potato wedges. -Yahoo! Finance
Highlight: Exclusive: @SallyPancakes reports that Walmart is testing an "autonomous robotic kitchen assistant" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters. Walmart is "evaluating the technology to see whether or not Flippy can fit in its deli counter." https://t.co/ObzMOMFjVypic.twitter.com/6LpKpo9K6t
The way Flippy would work at Walmart is that an associate would place a frozen product on a rack, which Flippy would then identify and pick up using visual recognition technology. Flippy then "agitates" a basket of frying food to ensure even cooking, after which the robot will move the basket to a drip rack.
After a human tests the food's internal temperature, the associate can season it before it's placed in the hot food display case.
"If you think about commercial kitchens, they really are micro-manufacturing facilities. And yet, they are some of the hardest conditions for people to work in," said Zito. "Our whole thing is not about job replacement, right. You hear this over and over again. Automating food is very difficult. Ask any chef. Their…
Time Magazine has just announced its “Person of the Year” for 2018, and for once, it isn’t one person. This time it is four people and a newspaper.
Collectively calling them “The Guardians”, Time has awarded the accolade to the murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Filipino journalist Maria Ressa who edits the Rappler news website, two young Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo currently serving seven-year sentences for exposing a massacre in Myanmar, and the staff of The Capital Gazette newspaper in the American town of Annapolis, Maryland, who continued publishing after five of their colleagues were gunned down in an attack in June.
Time’s Person of the Year cover is reserved for those who the magazine judges have had “the greatest impact on the news”, and not always for the better (it famously nominated Adolf Hitler in 1938). Its decision to name a collection of journalists is a marker not just of the impact those individuals have made, but a nod to the wider global crisis of confidence in journalism and “the truth”. The nominees are there partly for what they have done, but also for what they have come to represent.
Khashoggi is undoubtedly the best known of the group. The grim details of his assassination, in which he was lured into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to get documents for his marriage before he was strangled and dismembered with a bone saw, are as compelling as any airport novel. But they also exposed the cynicism of the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has tried to present himself as Saudi Arabia’s Western-friendly liberal saviour while ruthlessly and illiberally cracking down on dissenters.
Well, yesterday was a bust but they are going to try it again this morning with the Futures pumped up 250 Dow points driven by a diving Dollar, driven down by Trump's talk about a Government shutdown and theories that the Fed will not raise rates next week – especially after Trump said Powell is a "good guy" suddenly, after spening the past 3 months insulting him.
At this point, Trump is in the same position that Bernie Madoff was in after he was caught in his Ponzi Scheme only Trump hasn't ceased operations yet. Still, no one came to Bernie Madoff for financial advice after that and you could see from Trump's meeting with Schumer and Pelosi yesterday that no one is coming to him expecting him to be Presidential anymore. He's a joke and he's being treated like a joke but that's a dysfunctional Government and not very good for the Dollar – or the markets.
"Trump’s remarks appeared to undercut other officials in his administration who contended that Meng’s arrest — which came the same day he and Xi announced plans to break the trade impasse — was unconnected to the broader negotiations…
"'These remarks by Trump are extremely dangerous and reckless as he could be fueling thoughts about arresting American executives in China as bargaining chips,' said James McGregor, China chairman of the consultancy APCO Worldwide, which advises foreign companies. 'He is also feeding into the belief in China that the U.S. doesn’t really have an independent judicial system.'" (Bloomberg)
That's right folks, the rest of the World now views us the way we used to view the Soviet Union. Isn't that great?
We made no progress in the markets yesterday and today we've got another chance to make those weak…
It took a little while to dig myself out of one of the deepest rabbit holes in all of finance, retirement spending strategies. William Sharpe calls it “the nastiest hardest problem in finance.”
Retirement, specifically early retirement, has been a hot topic lately, thanks to the FIRE [financial independence/retire early] movement and one of its biggest proponents, Mr. Money Mustache. He recently wrote a piece about retiring on a fixed chunk of money, where he said:
Let’s say you want to be able to spend $40,000 per year, for life, and have that spending allowance continue to grow with inflation. And you never want to make another dollar from work in your lifetime..If you start with a $1 million nest egg (a 4% withdrawal rate), you will very likely never run out of money.
It’s hard for me to get behind this idea because there are just too many unknown variables. You can model a 5% return on your investments, but as we all know, there is often a big gap between what the market returns and what investors receive. “Can’t I just buy an index fund?” Sure you can, but keeping up with the market is harder than most people think.
For the sake of simplicity, let’s start with the idea that you withdraw 4% of your portfolio and grow your withdrawals at 2% to account for inflation (both on a monthly basis). The table below shows how long you can do this before running out of money.
But here’s the catch, this table assumes you get this rate of return year after year after year. The real world is not so accommodating. The table above shows that you can earn 4% a year for 34 years before running out of money, but let’s look at what happens if a nasty bear market were to arrive as soon as you retire. The chart below shows one way in which an investor can arrive at a 4% CAGR over a 30 year period.
The danger of assuming compound annual growth rates
You can certainly fool at least some of the people all of the time as President Trump once again tries to fix the markets by tweeting out "Very productive conversations going on with China! Watch for some important announcements!" and that's all it seems to take to ramp the indexes up 1% in the Futures. Well, that and the coordinated cooperation of his fellow Oligarchs, who have their hands on the market switches, of course.
The above quote is from March but there are about 100 tweets from Trump telling us how great trade negotiations are going with China, going back over 18 months and EVERY TIME it somehow boosts the markets though, after 18 months of China talks, the market is lower now than it was when we started!
So let's keep any sort of bounce today in context as we have fallen from 2,950 on the S&P (/ES) to 2,650 (and a quick spike below) so, with a 300-point drop, we expect a 20% bounce (60) to 2,710 (weak) and 2,770 (strong) and, so far, all we have is a weak bounce off the spike low to 2,600 – not that impressive. Is Trump having trouble fooling even some of the people all of the time? We're back at the lows but the bounce lines are the same as they've been since October at:
Dow 24,300 with a weak bounce at 24,800 and a strong bounce at 25,300
You better hope interest rates didn’t just peak for the cycle with the 10-year failing at 3.05%. So says Ari Wald (technician at OpCo), whose chart this weekend looks at 10-year treasury yield breakdowns as a leading (or coincident) indicator for major turning points in the S&P 500 / economy.
Here’s Ari:
Looking back at the last economic cycle, the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked coincidentally with an inversion in the yield curve in 2006. However, it was a definitive breakdown in rates that occurred while the equity market topped in 2000 and 2007—we’re still missing this breakdown, in our view. In other words, we view the moderation in the 10-year yield as a warning (that could last months) but we don’t yet see the sharp turn lower that typically marks the end of the cycle.
And his chart – S&P 500 index price is the left scale, bond yields is the right…
If you were worried about rates going too high, be careful what you wish for. A definitive breakdown in yields is not the best case scenario here. Flattening before a resumption higher would actually be preferable to prolong the cycle.
Speaking of cycles, the economic team at Bank of America says the risk of recession in the next six months is probably being overstated on Wall Street and in the media. They’ve introduced a new big data model that shows less than a 10% chance that the US economy falls into recession in the first half of 2019. Here’s BofA Merrill’s Ethan Harris & Co on the inputs they’re using…
We introduce a new big data recession probability model that accounts for a broader basket of indicators: the 3mo-10yr treasury spread, building permits, commercial & industrial (C&I) loans, S&P 500, real consumption, and corporate spreads. This model suggests less risk of a near term recession, predicting a 6-mo ahead probability of 9%. While we don’t recommend ignoring the markets’ signals, we do recommend taking them in context with the economic data. With regards to the Fed, we think the economic data will take on even more importance
That's not entirely clear anymore as we're testing a triple bottom on the S&P since late October and 2,950 to 2,650 is 300 points down and 2,800 is right in the middle and that's where we kept failing – not a very bullish sign and this dip has been faster than the first two so, if the bounce is weaker than the first two – that's a bearish pattern we'll be able to hang our hats on.
Trade talks with China did not improve over the weekend with Lighthizer saying March 1st would be a "hard deadline" while Navarro says "China's predatory days are over" – and those are our chief negotiators! China is demanding that Canada release the daughter of Huawei's Founder and is treatening "further actions" against the US if the issue is not resolved and this is what happnes when people pretend to negotiate a trade deal but are actually only interested in sabotaging it so Trump can keep taxing (oh, sorry, tariffing) Americans on things they used to buy under free trade agreements.
Speaking of Trump – things have not been going well in Trump Land and that adds to the market uncertainty so I would take any move up this morning with a huge grain of salt. Very simply, for the S&P, the 300-point drop leads to a 60-point weak bounce so that's the goal for today and failing that (we will fail that) then it's more likely we'll have to keep an eye on the floor tomorrow to see if that holds.
Meanwhile, both China and Japan had poor economic data over the weekend and riots continue in France for the 4th week with 136,000 people marching on Satuday leading to 2,000 arrests while Retail Sales are down $1Bn for the month and restaurant sales are down as much as 50% as people choose to stay home rather than navigate Paris' burning streets.
If you wonder why you don't hear much about the Paris protests in the US – it's because the Yellow Vest Protests are about economic inequality and the Capitalists that own the media like to pretend there is no…
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries likes to look united.
That’s evident when OPEC leaders meet in Vienna at the end of each year to decide how much oil its members will aim to produce the next year. There is always a show of togetherness and the appearance of the quasi-cartel’s ability to move markets.
My research has taken me through the history of oil, particularly the relationship between oil revenues, economic development and the geopolitical balance of power in the 1960s and 1970s. I believe that rather than the arbiter of global energy, OPEC has often been held back by division, disagreement and divergent interests.
This weakness helps explain why OPEC has struggled to move markets in effective ways since the 2014 collapse of oil prices. The latest production cuts, which were bigger than expected but followed considerable acrimony, are further proof that OPEC’s disunity remains intact.
Early days: Divided and powerless
OPEC was formed from frustration. In the 1950s, the world was awash in oil as small nations in the Middle East and Latin America discovered enormous deposits.
To gain access to those deposits, the major oil companies, known as the “Seven Sisters,” signed concessionary agreements with local governments. This arrangement gave the companies control over the oil – they set production levels and prices – while governments simply collected a check.
In February 1959, amid an oil glut, the Seven Sisters decided that a price correction was necessary. Acting unilaterally, they cut the price of oil, from US$2.08 to $1.80 by August 1960.
That may sound odd today, but back then oil prices didn’t always follow market forces and were typically set by the companies.…
Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.
That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. But it does affect our perspective on the world. Many of us don’t fully grasp how important Europe is to the US and global economy.
We may soon get a lesson on that. I’ve talked about Italy’s ongoing debt crisis, which is not improving, but Europe has other problems, too. Worse, events are coalescing such that several potential crises—all major on their own—could strike at the same time, and not too long from now. As I’ve been saying for about three years, there is no reason for the US to have a recession on its own. I think events elsewhere will push us into it, and Europe is a really big current risk. I know from my visits to Europe and discussions with friends there, they see all sorts of problems with Trump and particularly his tariffs.
However, another concern is that the various actors in Europe are not playing nice with each other. I tell my European friends the same forces that yielded Trump are coming to a European country near them. In some places, they already have.
So, in my never-ending quest to keep you ahead of the curve, I’ll review what’s happening “over there.” This may be a turnabout for European readers who rely on me to describe what’s happening over here. But as you’ll see, we are far more connected than separated by distance.
(Note: The link is to my favorite version of “Over There” written by George M. Cohan, here sung by James Cagney in 1942 for the film Yankee Doodle Dandy. It was written at the beginning of World War I and quickly became the number one song of not just that era but also the World War II era. Younger
Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for a valuable team member in its in-store delis, according to Yahoo! Finance.
While Flippy had somewhat of a rocky start at a Pa...
Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for a valuable team member in its in-store delis, according to Yahoo! Finance.
While Flippy had somewhat of a rocky start at a Pa...
Silver miners (SIL) have had a rough 7-years, as the ETF finds itself nearly 75% below its 2011 highs. No doubt the long-term trend remains down.
SIL is has declined 27% since the first of this year (See chart below), where it is testing a falling support line at (1), with momentum currently at the lowest levels in 5-years.
While declining this year, SIL could be creating a bullish falling wedge, where it currently is in a tight jam between support and resistance.
This chart looks at the Year-to-Date performance of miners ETF’s-
Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.
Updated 12-10-18
Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?
Nearly 170 years before the invention of Bitcoin, the journalist Charles Mackay noted the way whole communities could “fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit”. Millions of people, he wrote, “become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first”.
Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time. A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat. But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior. And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday. A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.
On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has p...
The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”
Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
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Sentiment washout and stocks still can’t bounce
Khashoggi is undoubtedly the best known of the group. The grim details of his assassination, in which he was lured into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to get documents for his marriage before he was strangled and dismembered with a bone saw, are as compelling as any airport novel. But they also exposed the cynicism of the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has tried to present himself as Saudi Arabia’s Western-friendly liberal saviour while ruthlessly and illiberally cracking down on dissenters.
After selling out our Nation's morals on Saudi Arabia's murder of Kashoghi, 
That's right folks, the rest of the World now views us the way we used to view the Soviet Union. Isn't that great?
It took a little while to dig myself out of one of the deepest rabbit holes in all of finance, retirement spending strategies. William Sharpe calls it “the nastiest hardest problem in finance.”
Thank you, Mr. President.
Are the dip buyers still out there?
Meanwhile, both 
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site