Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

TGIF – Indexes Turn Red for 2018, Japan in Turmoil

chartDown 6.9% for the month!

That's the damage on the Nikkei after yesterday's 4.5% dip, putting Japan's market down 10% for the year (so far).  China's Shanghai dropped 3.4% in response to Trump's Tariffs but, so far, China has not responded in kind so, as we expected, the indexes are finding a bit of support at S&P 2,640, which is exactly what we prediced they would do on Wednesday morning.

Remember:  I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – that is the extent of my powers.  The rest is up to you!

In the case of our S&P call from Wednesday morning's report, the 80-point drop from 2,720 to 2,640 was good for gains of $4,000 per contract (you're welcome!) and now we'll see what kind of bounce we get on the way to a full correction at 2,400, which will be good for another $12,000 per contract if all goes well (or badly, I suppose).  

As 2,640 is the 20% line on our Big Chart (a level we drew more than a year ago) and as the fall from the 25% line at 2,750 was 110 points – we'll be looking for 22-point bounces to 2,666 (weak and satanic) and 2,688 (strong) and, if the weak bounce fails to hold today – look out below on Monday!  the next proper support for the S&P Futures (/ES) will be the 15% line at 2,530 and the next stop below that is our 2,400 goal (2,420 to be exact).  THEN we get excited to buy things – despite the Trade Wars.

Until then, we have plenty of longs and plenty of hedges so we just sit back and watch and wait.  The US and European markets are closed next Friday (my Birthday, actually Thurs but it's celbrated on Friday this year) and Easter is Sunday and that Monday will be slow and that whole week will be slow, as will the weak before (next week) so not the best time to determine what levels are holding up but a great time to take a break!

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The Weekly Webinar 03-21-18


The Weekly Webinar 03-21-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:52 Checking on the Markets
00:06:05 Petroleum Status Report
00:10:27 DX
00:11:50 CVS
00:25:11 Compound Rate Calculator
00:33:00 Virtual Portfolio Recap
00:38:53 Income Portfolio
00:40:50 Trade Ideas
00:44:48 Butterfly Portfolio
00:45:54 Long Term Portfolio
00:51:34 Short Term Portfollio
00:54:41 ABX
00:59:50 FOMC Meeting
01:10:55 Active Trader
01:13:12 Seeking Alpha Market News
01:16:26 Trade Ideas
01:19:25 Fed Statement Tracker
01:28:47 SBUX
01:29:13 Seeking Alpha Market News
01:34:54 Active Trader
01:45:55 CMG
01:51:12 Checking on the Markets

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!


Eleven Million Millionaire Households – a new record


Eleven Million Millionaire Households – a new record

Courtesy of 

?Some data of interest on the state of wealth in the United States…

The number of millionaire households in the U.S. jumped by more than 700,000 last year, thanks to surging stock prices and housing values, according to a new report.

The U.S. now has more than 11 million millionaire households, according to Spectrem Group, up more than 6 percent from 2016. The number of new millionaires and the total population of millionaires set records. Spectrem defines millionaire households as those with at least $1 million in investible assets, not including primary residence.

The stock market went up 25% last year and bonds didn’t lose much value. Thanks to the President’s year-end push for a corporate tax bonanza coupled with a steady, patient central banking environment where nobody pressed particularly hard on the trigger, anywhere in the world.

Since the financial crisis, the number of millionaire households has nearly doubled…

The number of households worth $5 million to $25 million grew by 84,000, to 1.35 million households. The number of households worth more than $25 million jumped by 10 percent, increasing by 16,000 to a total of 172,000.

Meanwhile, Boomers in the US are out of the doldrums emotionally and financially – they’re buying homes in retirement communities around the country at a rapid pace.

Here’s the Wall Street Journal:

The population of federally designated retirement destination counties rose 2% last year, almost three times the rate of national population growth, according to census county population estimates for the year that ended July 1.

Almost three-quarters of a million Americans during that period moved into one of the 442 counties that the Agriculture Department tags as retiree spots.

The figures are a fresh sign that the nation’s 74 million baby boomers—those born between 1946 to 1964—have dug out from the 2007-09 recession that locked many of them in place when home and stock values plummeted.

Also via the Journal, Millennials are having babies

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Trade War Thursday – Trump Takes on China

Image result for trump trade war china cartoonWhat an exciting day.  

Trump will be rolling out his economic sanctions against China because what we really need now is more instability in the Global Economy.  Earlier this morning, the PBOC raised their rates in-line with the Fed so we can probably expect trade retaliation in-line with Trump against US manufacturers.  It's certainly going to be interesting, whatever the case.  

While it's very exciting to have International Diplomacy carried out via unilateral decisions announced on Twitter – it does undo DECADES of careful negotiations carried out via shuttle diplomacy by dozens of our Nation's most experienced representatives.  Sadly, once you break Humpty Dumpty, it's very hard to put him back together again but the century is still young – I'm sure we'll be able to fix it later…

Meanwhile, as we expected, the market was not too thrilled about the Fed hiking rates and we made some big money in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here) playing them bearish into the meeting and even our Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (RB) shorts turned around this morning for $300 per contract gains as gasoline came back below $2 and oil fell back below $65 (both are our stop lines now and both good for new shorts with tight stops above those lines).

As I said in yesterday morning's Report, 2,640 is our immediate downside target on the S&P (/ES), on the way back to 2,400, which would be $15,000 per contract gains on shorts below the 2,700 line.  We checked our portfolio hedges in yesterday's Webinar and we're generally content with our positions and looking forward to a nce correction – so bring on the Trade War!

FaceBook's (FB) Mark Zuckerberg attempted to put the brakes on their crisis with a timeline that spun the narrative but people aren't having it and Facebook is down again this morning, back at $167 but it will be interesting to see how hard Congress comes down on them as the very data they are accused of mishandling was used by GOP operatives to swing the elections for several high-ranking members of Congress – not to mention the President himself!

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Facebook is killing democracy with its personality profiling data


Facebook is killing democracy with its personality profiling data

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Facebook’s data know exactly what fits best in your mind. leolintang/

Courtesy of Timothy Summers, University of Maryland

What state should you move to based on your personality? What character on “Downton Abbey” would you be? What breed of dog is best for you? Some enormous percentage of Facebook’s 2.13 billion users must have seen Facebook friends sharing results of various online quizzes. They are sometimes annoying, senseless and a total waste of time. But they are irresistible. Besides, you’re only sharing the results with your family and friends. There’s nothing more innocent, right?


Facebook is in the business of exploiting your data. The company is worth billions of dollars because it harvests your data and sells it to advertisers. Users are encouraged to like, share and comment their lives away in the name of staying connected to family and friends. However, as an ethical hacker, security researcher and data analyst, I know that there is a lot more to the story. The bedrock of modern democracy is at stake.

You are being psychographically profiled

Most people have heard of demographics – the term used by advertisers to slice up a market by age, gender, ethnicity and other variables to help them understand customers. In contrast, psychographics measure people’s personality, values, opinions, attitudes, interests and lifestyles. They help advertisers understand the way you act and who you are.

Historically, psychographic data were much harder to collect and act on than demographics. Today, Facebook is the world’s largest treasure trove of this data. Every day billions of people give the company huge amounts of information about their lives and dreams.

This isn’t a problem when the data are used ethically – like when a company shows you an ad for a pair of sunglasses you recently searched for.

However, it matters a lot when the data are used maliciously – segmenting society into disconnected echo chambers, and custom-crafting misleading messages to manipulate individuals’ opinions and actions.

That’s exactly what Facebook allowed to happen.

Quizzes, reading your mind and predicting your

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Federally Funded Wednesday – S&P About to Retest 2,640 as Fed Withdraws Stimulus

Yawn, are we there yet?

This is the same chart we were using since the beginning of February and, in March, the markets have been full of sound and fury which has signified nothing as all that bluster has us right back where we started, with the S&P 500 finishing yesterday's session at 2,716 – exactly 3 points higher than we were 30 days ago.  

When we did finally break out over the Strong Bounce Line at 2,728, the S&P flew all the way up to 2,800 (3/12 and 3/13) when I said we were going to short the S&P (/ES Futures) back to 2,400 and we hit 2,700 (up $5,000 per contract) on Monday and 2,720 is a weak bounce from that.  My comment on the overall market was:

"I said we plan on deploying more cash when the S&P drops to 2,400, which is 15% down from the current 2,800 but that includes people paying $1,600 for a share of Amazon (AMZN) that generated $4.56 in profit last year for a return of 0.285% – Japanese bond investors laugh at Amazon shareholders!  Come on folks, this is ridiculous – markets can't sustain these kinds of gains."  

Now you know what I meant by that comment – markets can't go up just because – there needs to be real money flowing in and a real economy to sustain it – we have neither of those things.  Yes, the economy is growing, but not fast enough to justify those kinds of market moves and that's why we have our 5% Lines™, especially our Must Hold Levels™ – to remind us where the REAL value is in the markets and that keeps us from losing our heads and chasing ridiculous valuations.  

It also tells us when things are too cheap and, just like there was a mania to buy stocks at sky-high valuations, there's a mania to sell perfectly good stocks like GE (GE), L Brands (LB) or Chipotle (CMG) at fire-sale prices – surprisingly in the midst of the same rally (see our March 12th Top Trade Review for those trade ideas). 

Even now, Amazon (AMZN) added back $41.50 (2.7%) yesterday as it retests $1,600,…
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Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money

File 20180306 146703 1sf5sxu.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In very simple terms, blockchain technology is an open access shared ledger that keeps a record of all the transactions between parties and allows all users to agree on its contents. New information is added in blocks linked to the previous blocks, resulting in a chain of blocks being built.

This ledger is verified by “miners” to make sure it’s true – and so creating an audit trail. Past records can be viewed but not altered without the consent of the majority. And it is this technology that is behind cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin – the value of which rose almost 1400% in the past year, but has at times, also fallen massively too.

Crypto is here to stay

It can certainly be anticipated that this evolutionary technology is set to spark a huge revolution in the business world. It’s already being trialled at governmental level, from the Sweden Land Registry, to the Big Four accountancy firm such as E&Y – who accept Bitcoin as payment for its consultancy services.

The Australian Securities Exchange is also considering the use of blockchain technology to replace the current clearing and settlement system of share trading. And even the Bank of England is planning its own Bitcoin-style virtual currency.


Listen to The Conversation’s Anthill podcast episode: Bursting the Bitcoin bubble

Anthill 23: Bursting the Bitcoin bubble. CC BY-NC-ND 39 MB (download)


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Take It Back Tuesday – Breakdown, What Breakdown?

Well, we know Monday's are meaningless. 

In fact, next Monday is my last official Monday before I retire, at 55, from Mondays.  In five more years I will retire from Fridays too but, for now, I'll just be skipping Mondays – officially, though I'll still write a morning Report and pop in on chat – I'm just not going to commit to being around on Mondays so I can put a bit more time into PSW Investments, our Hedge Fund (Capital Ideas) and, of course, me.  

The only call I made during our Live Member Chat Room yesterday was my 10:14 comment to our Members, saying:

What craziness with FB, down 5.4% now.  /NQ holding 6,950 so far and we're still miles off the lows so it's really not very weak, considering.  More important to watch the S&P around 2,750 as that's the 50 dma it failed and NYSE is falling further away from 13,000 and even below the Must Hold at 12,800 so – NOT GOOD there.  

The Nas still has a very long way to go to catch up to the others on the downside and, since this news has a sweeping effect on many Nas companies and since analysts will only this week begin downgrading based on data concerns – /NQ is still my favorite short below 6,950 with tight stops or 6,975 or back at 7,000 but I can't see that happening.

Those kinds of calls, I will ALWAYS show up for!  What a great way to start the week.  At 1:50, we began playing for the bounces, though it was a rocky road for the first hour:

Looks like we found a

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Monday Market Movement – Trump Turmoil Roils Futures

Oops I Did It Again Snl GIF by Saturday Night LiveOops, he did it again.  

Our deal leader hit the Twitter this weekend, attacking Meuller and his team summarizing all the Team Trump talking points with the following (1 of 8):

The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. It was based on fraudulent activities and a Fake Dossier paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC, and improperly used in FISA COURT for surveillance of my campaign. WITCH HUNT!

That came after Trump opened the doors for every lawyer in America to request a retrial for anyone who was ever convicted by the FBI:

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Cursed By Momentum


Cursed By Momentum

Courtesy of Tim Richards

Edgy Investors

Although most investors have no edge on the market there's a proportion of them that persist in trading actively, the main effect of which is to enrich their brokers. There are various explanations of why this occurs, but it seems to come down to some combination of inherent overconfidence and a perverse refusal to take account of negative information. 

This is particularly dangerous in calm periods such as those we’ve been experiencing in markets over the past few years.  In such times momentum strategies are particularly effective – and serve to supercharge the behavior of naturally overconfident individuals. The end results are usually not pretty…

Snow Business

We’ve covered the basic research into overconfidence here a number of times. Odean and Barber (see O is for Overconfidence) showed that the more investors trade, the more they tend to lose – high turnover investors spend more on fees and end up losing money relative to less active traders. In fact only the least active accountholders were able to generate a return in excess of an S&P500 index tracker.

In 2009 Mark Grinblatt and Matti Keloharju studied a bunch of Finnish traders in Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence and Trading Activity. In Finland all males have to take an Army psychometric test at age 20 – quite what the Finnish military is worried about isn’t clear, other than a tendency for adult male Finns to drink a lot, play chess and roll about naked in the snow, often all at the same time. The researchers then matched the results of these tests and driving violations to frequency of trading and – no surprise – found that overconfident, sensation seeking individuals were the most frequent traders.

Wrong But Right

As ever, the behavior of investors is conditioned by the times that they find themselves in. People tend to extrapolate the recent past into the indefinite future, which is fine when you’re dealing in the movements of tectonic plates, but less smart if you’re trading on the edge of an active volcano.  Given this it’s no surprise that momentum strategies – essentially

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Phil's Favorites

Why Trump will weather Stormy


Why Trump will weather Stormy

Courtesy of Monika L. McDermott, Fordham University

Donald Trump’s opponents have long been waiting for some sort of scandal to bring him down, and they may think they have finally found it in pornographic film star Stormy Daniels.

Daniels alleges she had an extramarital affair with Donald Trump in 2006 and was subsequently paid off by a Trump lawyer to stay silent during the presidential election. These types of charges, if proven true, have felled many politicians in the past.

But Trump’s opponents probably shouldn’t get their hopes up.

While political science research has shown that politicians are generally hurt by political scandals like extramarital affairs, the context is key. ...

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Zero Hedge

Trader Shares "A Few Ideas For Avoiding A Friday Faceplant"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Bloomberg macro commentator, Richard Breslow

Don’t mistake this as a trade recommendation, but it is all right to do nothing. Trading when you believe you have an edge is when it is time to step in. If you are there, then go for it. But trading merely because things are moving around is a day-trading concept, not an investment thesis.

It’s important to match trading style, objectives and realistic liquidity assumptions to how you view volatility vs risk. They are very much not the same thing. Made even more so if you think the Fed equity put has been eliminated. It hasn&#...

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Insider Scoop

41 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (NASDAQ: OMEX) shares climbed 118.42 percent to close at $8.30 on Thursday after the company disclosed positive Mexico Court Decision nullifying a previous denial of application for Don Diego project.
  • Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) shares gained 35.31 percent to close at $15.75. The maker of a cataract surgery drug called Omidria realized a "big win" from Wednesday's release of the U.S. government spending bill, according to Stat News. Specifically, a policy included in the spending bill includes a pass-through exte... more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Cycles Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker. uses Bartel's logic to find dominant cycles in a time series.

Cycles are present in markets, as shown below the 22 and 40 day cycles on calendar days looks like the best fit. Therefore the chart below suggest we can expect a bitcoin low either now or in a few weeks.

Bitcoin has not been effected by the SP500/Dow sell off which is a very bullish sign, bitcoin may see safe haven money chasing price very soon, add to this the sister coin, litecoin, isgetting ready for wider use with the massive e-commerce payment market (litepay, litepal, atomic swamps, lightening network).

The bitcoin move is not over!


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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Speaks With CNBC's "Power Lunch" Today

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

WHEN: Today, Thursday, March 22, 2018

WHERE: CNBC’s “Power Lunch”

Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F 1PM – 3PM) today, Thursday, March 22nd. Following are links to video from the interview on

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.


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Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>