Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-16-2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-09-2021

 

Major Topics:
00:00:14 – Checking on the Market
00:01:42 – EIA Report
00:09:50 – Intermediate Goods / Final Demand PPI / Inflation
00:16:13 – GOOGL
00:17:05 – MSFT / AA / AAPL
00:20:09 – U.S. Wage Growth
00:26:42 – U.S Housing Market / Wage Gap
00:34:47 – Mortgage & Property Taxes
00:37:16 – LTP
00:39:25 – STP
00:40:01 – CMG / FX / TQQQ
00:40:17 – SQQQ / W 
00:45:40 – LTP
00:49:45 – Butterfly Portfolio
00:50:18 – Dividend Portfolio
00:50:29 – Earnings Portfolio
00:53:52 – FOMC Statement
01:00:56 – Economic Projections / GDP
01:05:50 – S&P 500 / DJIA
01:06:51 – Market Crash
01:10:07 – FRO
01:11:23 – AIV
01:12:34 – BDI
01:13:33 – FDX / UPS / AAWW
01:17:15 – USD / Currenices
01:17:51 – Bonds
01:18:15 – Metals
01:18:24 – Grains
01:18:47 – Energy / Crude OIl WTI

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to see what we do at PSW in real time. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars each Wednesday at 1:00 pm EST join us at PSW!

Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view our past weekly webinars here.

 




Thrill is Gone Thursday – QE Not Forever?

ImageRates are going up.

Finally it's not a matter of if, but when and that makes a lot of difference for a market that was not even pricing in if.  As you can see from the statement, only very minor changes were made with the key change being "inflation running persistently below" to "inflation having run persistantly below".  Even the Fed don't want to seem like idiots and the time for ignoring inflation is now past us and a Fed that's fighting inflation is generally fighting fun – it is time for Daddy to take your TBills away…..

Ah, remember the 60s, when "now" used to rhyme with "now" – life was so simple then (or maybe we were idiots?).  I think that's called the Canadian/Japanese Rhyme Scheme (just say whatever and end each sentence in "Eh" or "Neh")?   

Anyways, the Fed said whatever in their statement but it was the data that changed – especially the "Dot Plot", which now shows 7 Members favoring a rate hike (gasp!) next year and pretty much all of them expecting to be (gasp!) 0.5% higher in 2023.  Of course 0.5% is TRIPLE the current rate so gasp! indeed.  Meanwhile, as pointed out by Sven Henrich: "Not a single question (at the FOMC press conference) by the media about record and expanding wealth inequality, asset bubbles, speculative behavior, or the homeless camps.

As I noted yesterday, there are far too many crises or in fact, crisises for us to focus on more than one at a time.  It's like worrying about spilled wine on the carpet of the Titanic as the ship splits in half, bursts into flames and sinks to the bottom of sea – pick a crisis!  At least the icy waters will put out the fire, right?  That's kind of how we're going now – relying on Keynes' adage on debt and why we shouldn't worry about it in the long run (because we'll be dead by then).  In fact, almost 1/2 the population of the planet now live in places that will be uninhabitable by 2070 - so what's a little Wealth Inequality between survivors?  

Image

What people should really be paying attention to is the "Longer Run" Dot
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This is bad news how?

 

This is bad news how?

Courtesy of 

The economy is recovering faster than had been expected as recently as this spring. Great reason to panic, apparently.

WSJ:

Federal Reserve officials signaled they expect to raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the economy recovers rapidly from the effects of the pandemic and inflation heats up.

Their median projection showed they anticipate lifting their benchmark rate to 0.6% from near zero by the end of 2023. In March they had expected to hold it steady through that year.

This is bad news how?

Do you want interest rates at zero and emergency bond buying programs to go on forever, regardless of economic conditions? Have you been struck by lightning, sir? Fallen on your head in recent days?

“Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of Covid-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened.”

That’s Chair Powell, resetting expectations as he should. Ignore kneejerk stock market reactions and sudden swings in sentiment. Things are getting better, extraordinary stimulus is going away, rates will normalize.

I’ll be on CNBC’s Closing Bell today at 3:45pm today, bringing my own particular flavor of calm, rational market commentary to the table. Pull up a chair.

 




Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

14,000 on the Nasdaq.

We're actually over what we thought would be the top of our range as the P/E Ratio of the Nasdaq 100 crossed over 40 at 13,000 so 14,000 is more like 43 time the earnings of the stocks in the index but, when you think about it, that's pretty much a 2.32% return on your investment, which is the same as the yield on a 30-year note so, as usual, where else are you going to put your money?  

There's the rub, of course because, if the Fed does raise the rates on bonds, they make them more attractive than stocks and that can quickly lead to the very market correction they are desperately trying to avoid.  Still, inflation is clearly out of control with yesterday's PPI number coming in at 0.8% for May and a shocking 0.7%.  Final Demand PPI, which measures change in prices received by domestic producers for goods, services, and construction (the price you actually pay for things) is up 11% year over year – a number that hasn't been seen for decades.  At any other time in our Nation's history, this would have been considered a major economic crisis – now it's just Tuesday….

And that's not even the real crisis, the real crisis is Intermediate Goods, the prices for fully or partially processed commodities that WILL be used as inputs to produce other goods in the coming months – those are up just shy of 60% year over year and, while it's normal for commodity prices to bounce around – these prices are downright scary if they prove to be sticky.  

So far, the Fed has been swearing up and down that these inflationary indicators are "transitory" but there's no indicator of that at all.  Rising prices for intermediate goods are a leading indicator, not a lagging one and we have yet to see the worst of this storm.  

Not only that but Empire State Manufacturing for June was a miss at 17.4, down from 24.3 in May as Delivery Times lenthened to a record pace as inventories edged lower and "both input prices and selling prices continued to rise sharply."  This is
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With Ford’s electric F-150 pickup, the EV transition shifts into high gear

 

With Ford’s electric F-150 pickup, the EV transition shifts into high gear

Ford calls its all-electric F-150 Lightning “the truck of the future.” Ford, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of Brian C. Black, Penn State

When President Joe Biden took Ford’s electric F-150 Lightning pickup for a test drive in Dearborn, Michigan, in May 2021, the event was more than a White House photo op. It marked a new phase in an accelerating shift from gas-powered cars and trucks to electric vehicles, or EVs.

In recent months, global auto manufacturers have released plans to electrify their vehicle fleets by 2030 or 2035, setting up a race to see who can most quickly shift entirely away from producing vehicles powered by gasoline.

Like Biden, former President Donald Trump promised to create jobs in the auto industry. But Trump sought to do it by perpetuating a fossil-fueled system that is the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Automakers benefited from some Trump policies in the short term, including the rollback of fuel economy standards. Now, however, they seem to be embracing the challenge of competing globally in a climate-constrained future.

As an environmental historian, I see this moment as pivotal because unlike EVs from manufacturers like Toyota or Tesla, the electric F-150 does not entirely rely on green consumer choice. It places the electric vehicle transition squarely in the hands of mass-market consumers who don’t choose cars based on environmental considerations, and who are buying far more light trucks – pickups, sport utility vehicles and minivans – than cars today.

The century of gasoline

America’s 20th-century affair with gas-powered cars was not inevitable. From 1890 through about 1915, vehicles powered by horses, coal, electric batteries and gasoline jockeyed for position on U.S. streets. And electric-powered vehicles had some clear advantages. Many consumers feared that gas-powered cars were prone to explode, and there was no nationwide fueling infrastructure.

But World War I combined with a moment of technological convergence that favored the internal combustion engine. Massive new petroleum discoveries in Texas, and later in the…
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Toppy Tuesday – Hedging Ahead of the Fed

What a market! 

I know it's hard to talk about hedging when the market is doing so well but that's the lesson of Joseph and the Pharoh from the Bible – you have to prepare for the bad times DURING the good times or you get screwed.  As a rule of thumb, we like to put 25-33% of our unrealized portfolio gains into our hedges in order to lock them in against a downturn.  If we do our jobs well, we get out of our longs ahead of a correction and ride the shorts down to even more profits – that's been working well for us for the past two years.  

At PSW, our two main portfolios are our Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios (LTP and STP) and, very simply, the STP has our hedges as well as fun short-term plays while the LTP is generally full of bullish plays.  We started with $500,000 in the LTP and $100,000 in the STP back in October of 2019 – after cashing out our previous set with a $2M balance (up 233%) that September.  Now we're back over 2M again and it's very tempting to just cash out but the market has been so strong – and our long positions are so good – we don't have a good enough reason to sell yet.  So we hedge….

Our last STP Review was May 14th and our STP was up 40% at $281,128 (we had added $100,000 from the LTP when the STP was down to $50,000 after the big rally last year) and, as of yesterday's close, we're up 21% at $242,088, so we've lost $39,040 this month but the combined balance with the LTP is positive – and that's what we care about.  We're hedged pretty much to neutral – not really trusting what I believe is a toppy market.  

We made 4 changes to the STP last month and we felt adequately hedged and we also added a lot of LTP positions to shift a bit more bullish – but nothing too crazy.  

  • XRT – Our short play on retail did not work out – total loss.

  • SCO – They


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The Shoeshine Indicator is Dead

 

The Shoeshine Indicator is Dead

Courtesy of 

The Detroit Pistons won back-to-back finals in the late 1980s. In a league dominated by giants, they won with little guys. They had their bruisers, like Laimbeer, Rodman, and Mahorn, but the backcourt was the engine of that team.

Even though their guards powered the Pistons, the game was still played inside. Today’s teams win on the perimeter. The most dynamic backcourt today is the Golden State Warriors, led by Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. In the 2018-2019 season, the pair took a combined 1,409 3-pointers.

In Isiah Thomas’s day, 3-point shots weren’t much of a thing. Zeke led the team in attempts, at 121, and made just 33 of them, for an awful .273%. Joe Dumars, a better shooter, shot .483%. With numbers like that, you’d think he’d take advantage of the extra point. Nope. He took 29 3’s for the whole season! The entire team took just 400 3s that year. The league took 15,361. With 80,000 3-point attempts this season, it’s safe to say that Chuck Daly would not recognize today’s game.

In 1932, Ben Graham wrote an article in Forbes,  Should Rich But Losing Corporations Be Liquidated?  In it, he said:

More than one industrial company in three selling for less than its net current assets, with a large number quoted at less than their unencumbered cash.

When the CAPE ratio was just above 5, many businesses were worth more dead than alive.  Cheap stocks were his thing, but cheap stocks by his standards are a thing of the past. Whether you look at a long-term chart of market cap to GDP or the CAPE ratio, you would conclude that the game has changed. And that’s because the game has changed.

Companies today, like NBA athletes, have gotten bigger, faster, and more efficient. 35 years ago, 8 employees were required to generate $1 million in revenue, The S&P 500 is 70% less labor-intensive than it was back then. It’s important to be aware of history, but it’s dangerous to live and die by historical data. Often times we’re comparing apples to oranges.

Before the


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Monday Market Movement – All Quiet Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The Fed's New Dot PlotFed meeting Wednesday.

Until then, nothing is likely to happen and, after that, anything can happen.  There are currently rumors that the Fed may begin to gear their language to being to anticipate a rate hike sooner than later – due to recent data that has pointed to rampant inflation.  Sooner, of course, would be next year anyway, as the March "Dot Plots" didn't indicate any movement by the Fed through 2023 but the March Fed Data pedicted consumer prices rising 2.4% for the year and, after a 5% Q2, they'd have to flall by more than 1% in Q3 and Q4 for that to be right and, if that happened – we'd be in a recession

Fed officials’ individual March projections, charted in their dot-plot, showed all 18 policy makers expected to leave interest rates unchanged through this year. Four expected to start lifting rates next year, and seven projected that rates would be higher by the end of 2023.  The new dot-plot coming Wednesday should show more individuals expect to raise rates in 2022 or 2023. A June survey of 127 market participants by MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC showed 68% of respondents expecting at least one rate increase in 2023. 

So, EITHER the Fed has to admit that inflation is running away and they need to tighten to control it OR the Fed needs to predict a Recession in the 2nd half of the year – what's it going to be?  Not only has Inflation soared since then, as the economy has rebounded much faster than expected, but businesses have struggled to hire workers and shortages of key materials have wreaked havoc on supply chains.  

T.?ain P? ?P on Twitter: "Dr. Seuss cartooned critically about currency  creation & inflation, coincidence that #CancelCulture has came for him?…  https://t.co/JZs50aQvjL"Signs of surging inflation have emerged faster than the Fed anticipated as recently as its April policy meeting. Fed officials haven’t publicly commented on the May inflation report because it was released Thursday during their self-imposed blackout period, when they refrain from speaking publicly on monetary policy ahead of their meeting.  Before the blackout period began on June 5, officials repeatedly said they expected this year’s inflation surge to prove "transitory."

We have some useful data…
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Shipping is tough on the climate and hard to clean up – these innovations can help cut emissions

 

Shipping is tough on the climate and hard to clean up – these innovations can help cut emissions

Shipping is responsible for a large portion of global emissions. William William/Unsplash, CC BY

Courtesy of Jing Sun, University of Michigan

Ships carry more than 80% of world trade, and they rely heavily on some of the least environmentally friendly transportation fuels available.

There are no cheap, widely available solutions that can lower the shipping industry’s planet-warming carbon emissions – in fact, shipping is considered one of the hardest industries on the planet to decarbonize – but some exciting innovations are being tested right now.

As a professor of naval architecture and marine engineering, I work on ship propulsion and control systems, including electrification, batteries and fuel cells. With attention focused on climate change this week as world leaders meet at the G-7 summit and negotiators discuss shipping emissions at a meeting of the U.N.‘s International Maritime Organization, let’s take a look at what’s possible and some of the fuels and technologies that are likely to define the industry’s future.

Shipping’s climate problem

Shipping is the cheapest way to move raw materials and bulk goods. That has given it both an enormous economic impact and a large carbon footprint.

The industry emits roughly 1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year – nearly 3% of global emissions, according to the IMO, a specialized U.N. agency made up of 174 member nations that sets standards for the industry. If shipping were a country, it would rank between Japan and Germany as the sixth-largest contributor to global carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, nearly 70% of ships’ emissions occur within 250 miles (400 kilometers) of land, meaning it also has an impact on air quality, especially for port cities.

Technological innovation, in addition to policies, will be crucial for achieving low-carbon or zero-emission shipping. Academic research institutes, government labs and companies are now experimenting with electrification; zero- or low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen, natural gas, ammonia and biofuels; and alternative power sources such as fuel cells and solar,…
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Replay of Phil’s Interview with TD Bank on Options Strategies

 

Update: A replay of Phil's interview on TD Banks' Options Strategies program is HERE. (You'll have to register if you haven't already.) Phil provides an excellent tutorial, walking viewers through his most commonly used strategies. If you missed the interview and are trading or planning to trade options, particularly if you're not an expert, this should be required viewing. 

TD's live webinar with Phil

Please let me know in the comments if you have problems accessing the video. 

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

 

 

****

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil speaks with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Lois Lerner Of 2021: IRS Political Corruption Unchanged With Billionaires' Tax Returns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Emily Miller via Emily Post News

When the private tax returns of billionaires were leaked to a left-wing group, liberals and conservatives reacted very differently. Liberals fell for the political trick and immediately said that the tax code was unfair and the rich should get a tax hike. Conservatives saw through the conspiracy and wanted answers on how the Deep State at the IRS could, once again, have so much unchecked power for political purpo...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-16-2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-09-2021

 

Major Topics:
00:00:14 - Checking on the Market
00:01:42 - EIA Report
00:09:50 - Intermediate Goods / Final Demand PPI / Inflation
00:16:13 - GOOGL
00:17:05 - MSFT / AA / AAPL
00:20:09 - U.S. Wage Growth
00:26:42 - U.S Housing Market / Wage Gap
00:34:47 - Mortgage & Property Taxes
00:37:16 - LTP
00:39:25 - STP
00:40:01 - CMG / FX / TQQQ
00:40:17 - SQQQ / W 
00:45:40 - LTP
00:49...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

 

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

One of this and one of that might be a good strategy to coronavirus vaccination. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology

While it’s now pretty easy to get a COVID-19 shot in most places in the U.S., the vaccine rollout in other parts of the world has been slow or inconsistent due to ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

Gold Seasonals and T Theory Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold tends to slump at the start of the US summer, and will Basel 3 make a difference this year?

Basel 3 has removed a large chuck of paper shorts off the LBMA, of course this is for the banks only, the hedge funds can continue to suppress gold with paper shorts. The true effect of Basel 3 may not be known for some month. 


A typical pattern in the metals is a smash down just before a major rally, consider this:


POINT 1: IRD recent post did say this

..."I’m wondering if the entire 'Kabuki Theatre' production is being staged to...



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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

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Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.