Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Nasdaq 7,000 Edition

Wow, what a day!  

Yesterday, in our pre-market Morning Report,  we made a call to short the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) if they failed to hold 6,700 and fail they did as we got a massive 200-point drop which paid us $20 per point per contract for $4,000 per contract same-day gains on the Futures – you're welcome!   Our oil shorts also did nicely, racking up additional $1,500 per contract gains on the day as we pulled back from $69 to $67.50.  This is why we take Monday's off now – we can make plenty of money on Tuesdays!  

This morning we'll be looking for bounces but failing to hold the weak bounce lines will likely signal more pain ahead and, don't forget, we were already expecting a big move down on Thursday so this may be an early start to a proper 5% correction.  I ran the numbers for our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room into the close (3:40):

2,685 to 2,620 is 65 points so 13 points is 2,633 (weak), which is right where we failed. 

24,600 to 23,800 is 800 points (wow) but I'll call it 150-point bounces to 23,950 and 24,100:

6,700 failed to 6,475 so 225 gives us 45-point bounces but call them 50 so 6,525 (weak) and 6,575 (strong)


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Why Big Tech is Plotting an Invasion of the Healthcare Market

 

Why Big Tech is Plotting an Invasion of the Healthcare Market

Courtesy of Visual Capitalist

The idea of using modern tech to transform the multi-trillion dollar healthcare industry has been around for a long time.

In 1996, legendary Silicon Valley entrepreneur Jim Clark launched his third startup, Healtheon, which was focused on what he called the “Magic Diamond”. The diamond represented the $1.5 healthcare market in the U.S. and its shape came from the doctors, providers, payers, and consumers slotted into the four outer points.

In the middle of the diamond, Clark had placed his new company Healtheon, which he expected to profit immensely from connecting the healthcare world together with the internet.

BEFORE ITS TIME?

Healtheon had a successful IPO in the middle of the Dotcom bubble, but it never was able to truly achieve its bold and original vision. As signals mounted that Dotcom stocks would implode, the fledgling company merged with WebMD in 1999.

Despite the fate of Healtheon, the dream of tech invading the healthcare market lives on – and today, big tech companies like Amazon, IBM, Alphabet, and Apple all have plans to enter the sector in a big way.

Today’s infographic from Koeppel Direct shows how this is all playing out, as well as the specific initiatives that big technology companies are using to gain a foothold in a market that’s ripe for change.

 

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

The story is no longer about the startups coming in to “disrupt” healthcare – unfortunately, the industry seems to have too much red tape, regulation, and bureaucracy for this to be possible in the conventional way. Instead, it’s the big companies like Amazon, Apple, IBM, and Alphabet that are eyeing to invade the space.

And for technology companies focused on big data, the healthcare market is a compelling opportunity.

HEALTHCARE MARKET POTENTIAL

By the numbers, here is a snapshot of the healthcare market, and why big tech wants in:

  • Global healthcare spending is expected to reach $8.7 trillion by 2020
  • In the U.S., there will be 98.2 million people


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Testy Tuesday – Nasdaq 6,750 or Bust Edition

Here come those tears again

6,750 is the 25% line on the Nasdaq and we've been here a few times and the bulls were very excited to buy the dip at 6,650, as that's where we popped in early March but, as I noted to our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room, we're simply repeating a pattern that was supposed to give us an up and down day yesterday that ended flat and today we should be up 30 points on the S&P and tomorrow 25 more and then we crash back to where we started to finish the week.

Can the market really be that programmed?  It will be interesting to see if the news and data actually matter or if we're simply doomed to repeat the behavior we observed from Feb 22nd-28th after two weeks of mirroring the behavior from Feb 5th-21st (see yesterday's morning report).  There's a fine line between being locked in a range and being trapped in a market that is being driven by trading bots.     

When the markets are thinly traded, the Bots do dominate the trading and, if no one has a solid reason to re-program them, then they are going to keep trading the same way, over and over again until someone breaks the cycle.  According to Yahoo, the average volume of the S&P ETF (SPY) is 120M shares a day, but here's how it's been trading for the past week:

Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume


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Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

 

Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

Courtesy of 

Last week Barry sat down for an amazing conversation with Joel Greenblatt, author of You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (originally titled Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius).

Greenblatt tells a story about when he went to a school in Harlem to talk with kids about investing. To explain how markets work and how they influence behavior, he brought a jar of jelly beans into the class room and had the kids write down how many beans they thought were in the jar. The average guess was 1771, remarkably close to the actual number, 1776. Before he revealed the average guess, he went around the room one by one asking the kids publicly how many beans were in the jar. This time the average was 850. The second guess is the stock market.

To be a good stock picker is to be cold and calculating and not easily influenced by the crowd. Easy to say, damn hard to do. Oh yeah, and you have to be right more often than you’re wrong. That’s also important.

This was my favorite MIB of the year, highly recommend taking the time to listen.

Source:

Masters in Business





Monday Market Movement – No News is Good News

The Futures are up, of course.  

The Futures are always up on Monday morning as it's a low-volume event and "THEY" can start the week off on a good note.  Since lat night, at 6pm, the Dow was up at 24,550, down to 24,350 and now back to 24,450, which is 50-points better than Friday's crappy close so YAY!, I guess.  It's all total BS, of course and I don't even work Mondays anymore (this isn't me, this is PhilBot 3000, my AI work in progress that will take all of your jobs, starting with mine) so it just doesn't matter but, for the sake of having a post – we'll pretend that it does

Both the IMF and the World Bank had meetings this weekend in Washington, DC and the general consensus there was that the Global Economy is good but Debt and Trade Wars risk making it bad again.  Since Debt and Trade Wars are Donald Trump's go-to policy moves – we're probably screwed.  A communique by the IMF’s main advisory committee, released Saturday, represented a ratcheting-up of pessimism since the group’s last semiannual meeting in October.  “I don’t know where the trade dispute is going quite frankly,” Budget Secretary Diokno said in an interview. “President Trump keeps changing his mind.”   

Central bankers sounded the alert that a trade war would leave them worrying more about the economic fallout than any boost tariffs would give to inflation. Colombia’s central bank president said a trade war would be "catastrophic," his Paraguayan peer said it would be "bad for everyone," while Japan’s chief described protectionism as "very undesirable."  Across the board, 2019 growth forecasts are moving lower while debt is getting quickly out of control.

In particular, according to Bloomberg, the IMF is worried that markets might be underestimating the threat of an inflation shock in the U.S., where the Trump administration is increasing fiscal stimulus with the economy at or near full employment. A surge in inflation might force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster than expected, a move that might cause turbulence in emerging market. The fund warned that global public and private debt has reached a record $164 trillion. A spike in interest rates would test the ability of borrowers to refinance
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2008 financial crisis still seems like only yesterday for single women

 

2008 financial crisis still seems like only yesterday for single women

File 20180414 570 i6t6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

A woman walks by the New York Stock Exchange. AP Photo/Richard Drew

Courtesy of Melanie G. Long, Colorado State University

For many Americans, the financial crisis that plunged the global economy into recession a decade ago may seem like a distant memory.

Household net worth – the difference between assets and debts – reached a record US$98.7 trillion in the last quarter of 2017, up from $56.2 trillion in 2008.

Yet net wealth, by itself, masks a lot of information that could signal troubling trends. For example, this measure doesn’t tell us which households are getting richer. It also doesn’t reveal how much borrowing is fueling these ostensibly swelling balance sheets.

More specifically, it doesn’t show that for households headed by women, particularly poorer ones, the financial picture is still very cloudy. That’s in part because, as my soon-to-be-published research shows, low-income single women borrowed a lot more than single men in the years leading up to the crisis. And their indebtedness relative to their income and wealth remains far more elevated than is the case for pretty much everyone else.

This is especially worrying because female-headed households are vulnerable to begin with – and so are at risk again if another crisis looms on the horizon.

Why debt matters

To understand why debt is so integral to household financial health, it’s helpful to look at what happened during the 2008 financial crisis.

Overall household debt grew dramatically in the early 2000s, driven in large part by the subprime mortgage boom. This borrowing eventually reached levels that proved to be unsustainable and, after interest rates began rising in 2004, forced millions into foreclosure.

While things have recovered, the significant gains in net worth are illusory, in part because they have gone disproportionately to the richest households. Moreover, they have been financed through a lot more borrowing.

Total household debt reached a record $13.15 trillion at the end of 2017, up about $2 trillion since the most recent trough in 2013. Nonhousing debt like credit cards and student loans made…
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Visualizing The Pension Time Bomb: $400 Trillion By 2050

 

The Pension Time Bomb: $400 Trillion by 2050

Courtesy of 

View the high resolution version of today’s graphic by clicking here.

Are governments making promises about pensions that they might not be able to keep?

According to an analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF), there was a combined retirement savings gap in excess of $70 trillion in 2015, spread between eight major economies..

The WEF says the deficit is growing by $28 billion every 24 hours – and if nothing is done to slow the growth rate, the deficit will reach $400 trillion by 2050, or about five times the size of the global economy today.

The group of economies studied: Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Japan, India, China, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

MIND THE GAP

Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur, and it illuminates a growing problem attached to an aging population (and those that will be supporting it).

Since social security programs were initially developed, the circumstances around work and retirement have shifted considerably. Life expectancy has risen by three years per decade since the 1940s, and older people are having increasingly long life spans. With the retirement age hardly changing in most economies, this longevity means that people are spending longer not working without the savings to justify it.

This problem is amplified by the size of generations and fertility rates. The population of retirees globally is expected to grow from 1.5 billion to 2.1 billion between 2017-2050, while the number of workers for each retiree is expected to halve from eight to four over the same timeframe.

The WEF has made clear that the situation is not trivial, likening the scenario to “financial climate change”:

The anticipated increase in longevity and resulting ageing populations is the financial equivalent of climate change ~ Michael Drexler, Head of Financial and Infrastructure Systems, WEF

Like climate change,…
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Phil on Benzinga’s Premarket Prep

 

Phil on Benzinga's Premarket Prep on April 19

Interview with Phil starts at 36 minutes. Phil discusses valuing the market (index targets), shorting oil and fake orders on the NYMEX, bank stocks, gold miners, Amazon and Netflix.

On today's edition of PreMarket Prep, we're discussing…

  • AMZN's sheer dominance
  • Earnings from AXP, AA, KMI, PG and more
  • The S&P's incredibly tight trading range

Featured Guests:

PreMarket Prep is a show about daily trading ideas hosted by former floor trader Joel Elconin and prop trader Dennis Dick. Listen to the show live and participate in our chatroom every day from 8-9 a.m. ET at premarket.benzinga.com.





Trump’s exports-good, imports-bad trade policy, debunked by an economist

 

Trump's exports-good, imports-bad trade policy, debunked by an economist

File 20180419 163995 fanknv.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

The White House frets about how the U.S. imports more stuff than it exports. AP Photo/Ben Margot

Courtesy of Ian Sheldon, The Ohio State University

President Donald Trump’s trade policy leaves international economists like me scratching our heads.

His apparent desire to start a trade war with China is only one example on a long list of what I see as poor trade policy choices. Others include: abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, threatening to abandon NAFTA and the tariffs he’s imposing on imported steel and aluminum.

The U.S. has historically led the global trade system, which I’d argue has benefited the nation economically overall, even if researchers estimate that the U.S. lost 985,000 manufacturing jobs to Chinese competition between 1999 and 2011. Why is this administration apparently willing to undermine a half-century-old system of rules governing the international exchange of goods and services?

The short answer is Trump’s “America First” ideology, a term that among other things rests on a guiding principle of economic nationalism.

Modern mercantilists

I can describe this trade policy’s logic, even if I can’t understand why his administration embraces it.

Trump essentially subscribes to a modern version of mercantilism, a school of thought most economists believe Adam Smith extinguished after he published his landmark book “The Wealth of Nations” in 1776. Mercantilism rests on a key idea: Exports are good and imports are bad. People who believe in mercantilism therefore see global trade as a zero-sum game.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro – a presidential aide with multiple titles and roles – advise Trump on trade. This trio who I’d label modern-day mercantilists is carrying out trade policies that Trump espoused while running for president.

Navarro, a former University of California, Irvine associate professor, is the only economist with a Ph.D. of the bunch. But when I scanned Navarro’s scholarship it surprised me to find that he has not published on this topic in a leading academic economics journal. One sign that…
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Trump Tweets Oil Down to $67.50 Giving our Readers $2,000 Per Contract Wins!

I am now a Donald Trump fan!  

Yesterday morning I was interviewed on the Benzinga Pre-Market Show where our trade of the day was to short Oil (/CL) (USO) Futures at $69.50 and, during the day yesterday we got had a nice $1,500 per contract gain as oil dropped to $68 and then, this morning, as oil climbed back to $68.50, where we wanted to short again, our beloved President, Donald J. Trump tweeted out exactly what I had said yesterday afternoon at my Nasdaq interview, with the President saying:

Needless to say we are thrilled, not just with the money but with the President's ability to summarize what we say during a 5-minute interview in a single tweet – THAT'S LEADERSHIP!  Now, if the President would just put me in charge of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and stake me with the Treasury, we could pay off the National debt in no time buying and selling oil contracts.  

We wouldn't need OPEC to back down if we simply break the NYMEX and we could do that by calling their bluff and promising to sell their fake, Fake, FAKE orders for 223M barrels of oil for May delivery, which we said last Friday would be cancelled or rolled by today and, lo and behold, as of this morning, there are only 26,672 contracts left open for May delivery, representing just 26.6M barrels (90% cancelled) and that will be cut in half today, leaving the US with just 13Mb imported to Cushing at $67.50 per barrel when, earlier this month, we had "orders" for over 500M barrels at $62.50 that were canceled by the criminal NYMEX trading cartel WHO ARE UNDERMINING THE ENERGY SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES, which happens to be TREASON!  

Well, the orders were not "cancelled" – they "roll" the orders into other months to FAKE demand there as well and this little shell game pushes the price of oil up and up and costs US Consumers Billions of Dollars at the pump every month.  In fact, this month's $5 gain x 20M barrels a day x 30 days is $3Bn we're being screwed out of in April alone.  On the
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Phil's Favorites

Cash Flow

 

Cash Flow

Courtesy of 

Investors attempt to handicap the future, and in doing so, they heavily discount the present and recent past. What’s done is done. No one gets paid on what happened last week.

In the eyes of investors in technology, media, medicine and communications, potential earnings power and cash flow generation matters a lot more than cash EPS. Michael Batnick looks at the fact that Disney has earned $41 billion over the last five years while Netflix has earned a cumulative $1.2 billion over the same time frame – and yet both have the same market capitalization now. Disney&...



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Zero Hedge

Bitcoin Tumbles Back Below $9,000 As Crypto Gets Clobbered

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

No obvious catalyst for the big drop this morning - aside from perhaps Chinese police seizing mining equipment in Tianjin - but Bitcoin Cash is plunging and Bitcoin is back below $9,000 as the entire crypto space is getting hit...

Bitcoin Cash is getting hit hardest today as AntPool's efforts fail..

And Bitcoin is back below $9,000...

...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Back Below $9,000 As Crypto Gets Clobbered

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

No obvious catalyst for the big drop this morning - aside from perhaps Chinese police seizing mining equipment in Tianjin - but Bitcoin Cash is plunging and Bitcoin is back below $9,000 as the entire crypto space is getting hit...

Bitcoin Cash is getting hit hardest today as AntPool's efforts fail..

And Bitcoin is back below $9,000...

...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.4 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $37.16 billion.
  • Twitter, Inc. ...


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Chart School

The Power of Simple Moving Averages - Crude Oil Warning, Part 3

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Many see the large commercial short position with Crude Oil, but what does it mean.

More from RTT Tv







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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>