Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Walmart Testing Flippy The Job-Stealing Robot Cook

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for a valuable team member in its in-store delis, according to Yahoo! Finance

While Flippy had somewhat of a rocky start at a Pasadena, California burger joint – having to be taken offline after its human co-workers couldn't prepare patties fast enough, the robot has had more recent success flipping 17,000 pounds of chicken tenders and tater tots at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. 

"Walmart saw what we were doing and said, ‘Could you bring Flippy from Dodgers Stadium to our Culinary Institute?" said Miso Robotics CEO David Zito. 

Yahoo Finance visited Flippy to see it in action at Walmart’s Culinary Institute and Innovation Center.

The way it works is Flippy automates the frying process for many of the items served in the deli, including chicken tenders, mozzarella sticks, and potato wedges. -Yahoo! Finance

 

The way Flippy would work at Walmart is that an associate would place a frozen product on a rack, which Flippy would then identify and pick up using visual recognition technology. Flippy then "agitates" a basket of frying food to ensure even cooking, after which the robot will move the basket to a drip rack. 

After a human tests the food's internal temperature, the associate can season it before it's placed in the hot food display case. 

"If you think about commercial kitchens, they really are micro-manufacturing facilities. And yet, they are some of the hardest conditions for people to work in," said Zito. "Our whole thing is not about job replacement, right. You hear this over and over again. Automating food is very difficult. Ask any chef. Their…
continue reading





Animal Spirits: Late Cycle

 

Animal Spirits: Late Cycle

Courtesy of 

On today’s Animal Spirits, we discuss:

Sentiment washout and stocks still can’t bounce

The Incredible Hulk of alternatives

Money cannot buy rich people more happiness

67% of workers earning > $100k are going to quit their jobs

Willing to pay for outperformance

Amazon over alcohol?

Madoff victims being made whole

Open toys, get rich

My winter coat

Listen here:

Tweets Mentioned:

 

 

Charts Mentioned:

Recommendations:

Beautiful Boy

Factfulness

Only Yesterday





Four journalists, one newspaper: Time Magazine’s Person of the Year recognises the global assault on journalism

 

Four journalists, one newspaper: Time Magazine's Person of the Year recognises the global assault on journalism

Courtesy of Peter Greste, The University of Queensland

Time Magazine has just announced its “Person of the Year” for 2018, and for once, it isn’t one person. This time it is four people and a newspaper.

Collectively calling them “The Guardians”, Time has awarded the accolade to the murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Filipino journalist Maria Ressa who edits the Rappler news website, two young Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo currently serving seven-year sentences for exposing a massacre in Myanmar, and the staff of The Capital Gazette newspaper in the American town of Annapolis, Maryland, who continued publishing after five of their colleagues were gunned down in an attack in June.

Time’s Person of the Year cover is reserved for those who the magazine judges have had “the greatest impact on the news”, and not always for the better (it famously nominated Adolf Hitler in 1938). Its decision to name a collection of journalists is a marker not just of the impact those individuals have made, but a nod to the wider global crisis of confidence in journalism and “the truth”. The nominees are there partly for what they have done, but also for what they have come to represent.

Khashoggi is undoubtedly the best known of the group. The grim details of his assassination, in which he was lured into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to get documents for his marriage before he was strangled and dismembered with a bone saw, are as compelling as any airport novel. But they also exposed the cynicism of the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has tried to present himself as Saudi Arabia’s Western-friendly liberal saviour while ruthlessly and illiberally cracking down on dissenters.

As Khashoggi himself once asked in a Washington Post column:

Must we choose between movie theatres and our rights as citizens to speak out, whether in support of or critical of our government’s actions?

Maria Ressa is less well-known but no less courageous. A former CNN correspondent, she…
continue reading





Which Way Wednesday – Testing the Weak Bounce Lines – Again

Are we having fun yet?

Well, yesterday was a bust but they are going to try it again this morning with the Futures pumped up 250 Dow points driven by a diving Dollar, driven down by Trump's talk about a Government shutdown and theories that the Fed will not raise rates next week – especially after Trump said Powell is a "good guy" suddenly, after spening the past 3 months insulting him.

At this point, Trump is in the same position that Bernie Madoff was in after he was caught in his Ponzi Scheme only Trump hasn't ceased operations yet.  Still, no one came to Bernie Madoff for financial advice after that and you could see from Trump's meeting with Schumer and Pelosi yesterday that no one is coming to him expecting him to be Presidential anymore.  He's a joke and he's being treated like a joke but that's a dysfunctional Government and not very good for the Dollar – or the markets.

Image result for trump ransom noteAfter selling out our Nation's morals on Saudi Arabia's murder of Kashoghi, Trump is offering to ignore whatever it is he's saying Huawei's Founder's Daughter (their CFO) did in violation of the Iran sanctions in exchange for better trade terms.  He should have tweeted that using the "Cut up pieces of newpaper" font.

"Trump’s remarks appeared to undercut other officials in his administration who contended that Meng’s arrest — which came the same day he and Xi announced plans to break the trade impasse — was unconnected to the broader negotiations…

"'These remarks by Trump are extremely dangerous and reckless as he could be fueling thoughts about arresting American executives in China as bargaining chips,' said James McGregor, China chairman of the consultancy APCO Worldwide, which advises foreign companies. 'He is also feeding into the belief in China that the U.S. doesn’t really have an independent judicial system.'" (Bloomberg)

Related imageThat's right folks, the rest of the World now views us the way we used to view the Soviet Union.  Isn't that great?  

We made no progress in the markets yesterday and today we've got another chance to make those weak…
continue reading





The Hardest Problem in Finance

 

The Hardest Problem in Finance

Courtesy of 

It took a little while to dig myself out of one of the deepest rabbit holes in all of finance, retirement spending strategies. William Sharpe calls it “the nastiest hardest problem in finance.”

Retirement, specifically early retirement, has been a hot topic lately, thanks to the FIRE [financial independence/retire early] movement and one of its biggest proponents, Mr. Money Mustache. He recently wrote a piece about retiring on a fixed chunk of money, where he said:

Let’s say you want to be able to spend $40,000 per year, for life, and have that spending allowance continue to grow with inflation. And you never want to make another dollar from work in your lifetime..If you start with a $1 million nest egg (a 4% withdrawal rate), you will very likely never run out of money.

It’s hard for me to get behind this idea because there are just too many unknown variables. You can model a 5% return on your investments, but as we all know, there is often a big gap between what the market returns and what investors receive. “Can’t I just buy an index fund?” Sure you can, but keeping up with the market is harder than most people think.

For the sake of simplicity, let’s start with the idea that you withdraw 4% of your portfolio and grow your withdrawals at 2% to account for inflation (both on a monthly basis). The table below shows how long you can do this before running out of money.

But here’s the catch, this table assumes you get this rate of return year after year after year. The real world is not so accommodating. The table above shows that you can earn 4% a year for 34 years before running out of money, but let’s look at what happens if a nasty bear market were to arrive as soon as you retire. The chart below shows one way in which an investor can arrive at a 4% CAGR over a 30 year period.

The danger of assuming compound annual growth rates


continue reading





Testy Tuesday – Trump’s China Tweet Gives Us Weak Bounces

Image result for trump china tweetThank you, Mr. President.

You can certainly fool at least some of the people all of the time as President Trump once again tries to fix the markets by tweeting out "Very productive conversations going on with China! Watch for some important announcements!" and that's all it seems to take to ramp the indexes up 1% in the Futures.  Well, that and the coordinated cooperation of his fellow Oligarchs, who have their hands on the market switches, of course.  

The above quote is from March but there are about 100 tweets from Trump telling us how great trade negotiations are going with China, going back over 18 months and EVERY TIME it somehow boosts the markets though, after 18 months of China talks, the market is lower now than it was when we started! 

So let's keep any sort of bounce today in context as we have fallen from 2,950 on the S&P (/ES) to 2,650 (and a quick spike below) so, with a 300-point drop, we expect a 20% bounce (60) to 2,710 (weak) and 2,770 (strong) and, so far, all we have is a weak bounce off the spike low to 2,600 – not that impressive.  Is Trump having trouble fooling even some of the people all of the time?   We're back at the lows but the bounce lines are the same as they've been since October at:

  • Dow 24,300 with a weak bounce at 24,800 and a strong bounce at 25,300
  • S&P 2,640 with a weak bounce at 


continue reading





The R Word

 

The R Word

Courtesy of 

You better hope interest rates didn’t just peak for the cycle with the 10-year failing at 3.05%. So says Ari Wald (technician at OpCo), whose chart this weekend looks at 10-year treasury yield breakdowns as a leading (or coincident) indicator for major turning points in the S&P 500 / economy.

Here’s Ari:

Looking back at the last economic cycle, the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked coincidentally with an inversion in the yield curve in 2006. However, it was a definitive breakdown in rates that occurred while the equity market topped in 2000 and 2007—we’re still missing this breakdown, in our view. In other words, we view the moderation in the 10-year yield as a warning (that could last months) but we don’t yet see the sharp turn lower that typically marks the end of the cycle.

And his chart – S&P 500 index price is the left scale, bond yields is the right…

If you were worried about rates going too high, be careful what you wish for. A definitive breakdown in yields is not the best case scenario here. Flattening before a resumption higher would actually be preferable to prolong the cycle.

Speaking of cycles, the economic team at Bank of America says the risk of recession in the next six months is probably being overstated on Wall Street and in the media. They’ve introduced a new big data model that shows less than a 10% chance that the US economy falls into recession in the first half of 2019. Here’s BofA Merrill’s Ethan Harris & Co on the inputs they’re using…

We introduce a new big data recession probability model that accounts for a broader basket of indicators: the 3mo-10yr treasury spread, building permits, commercial & industrial (C&I) loans, S&P 500, real consumption, and corporate spreads. This model suggests less risk of a near term recession, predicting a 6-mo ahead probability of 9%. While we don’t recommend ignoring the markets’ signals, we do recommend taking them in context with the economic data. With regards to the Fed, we think the economic data will take on even more importance


continue reading





Meaningless Monday Market Movement – Waiting for the Next Shoe to Drop

Are the dip buyers still out there?

That's not entirely clear anymore as we're testing a triple bottom on the S&P since late October and 2,950 to 2,650 is 300 points down and 2,800 is right in the middle and that's where we kept failing – not a very bullish sign and this dip has been faster than the first two so, if the bounce is weaker than the first two – that's a bearish pattern we'll be able to hang our hats on.

Trade talks with China did not improve over the weekend with Lighthizer saying March 1st would be a "hard deadline" while Navarro says "China's predatory days are over" – and those are our chief negotiators!  China is demanding that Canada release the daughter of Huawei's Founder and is treatening "further actions" against the US if the issue is not resolved and this is what happnes when people pretend to negotiate a trade deal but are actually only interested in sabotaging it so Trump can keep taxing (oh, sorry, tariffing) Americans on things they used to buy under free trade agreements.

Speaking of Trump – things have not been going well in Trump Land and that adds to the market uncertainty so I would take any move up this morning with a huge grain of salt.  Very simply, for the S&P, the 300-point drop leads to a 60-point weak bounce so that's the goal for today and failing that (we will fail that) then it's more likely we'll have to keep an eye on the floor tomorrow to see if that holds.

Meanwhile, both China and Japan had poor economic data over the weekend and riots continue in France for the 4th week with 136,000 people marching on Satuday leading to 2,000 arrests while Retail Sales are down $1Bn for the month and restaurant sales are down as much as 50% as people choose to stay home rather than navigate Paris' burning streets. 

If you wonder why you don't hear much about the Paris protests in the US – it's because the Yellow Vest Protests are about economic inequality and the Capitalists that own the media like to pretend there is no
continue reading





Saudi Arabia is allying with Russia to shore up oil prices as OPEC’s power wanes

 

Saudi Arabia is allying with Russia to shore up oil prices as OPEC's power wanes

File 20181207 128193 19dil0d.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources Khalid Al-Falih. AP Photo/Ronald Zak

Courtesy of Gregory Brew, Southern Methodist University

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries likes to look united.

That’s evident when OPEC leaders meet in Vienna at the end of each year to decide how much oil its members will aim to produce the next year. There is always a show of togetherness and the appearance of the quasi-cartel’s ability to move markets.

But the truth is, OPEC is in the midst of a major crisis made more evident by Qatar’s announcement that it would be leaving OPEC, partly to protest Saudi dominance over the group.

My research has taken me through the history of oil, particularly the relationship between oil revenues, economic development and the geopolitical balance of power in the 1960s and 1970s. I believe that rather than the arbiter of global energy, OPEC has often been held back by division, disagreement and divergent interests.

This weakness helps explain why OPEC has struggled to move markets in effective ways since the 2014 collapse of oil prices. The latest production cuts, which were bigger than expected but followed considerable acrimony, are further proof that OPEC’s disunity remains intact.

Early days: Divided and powerless

OPEC was formed from frustration. In the 1950s, the world was awash in oil as small nations in the Middle East and Latin America discovered enormous deposits.

To gain access to those deposits, the major oil companies, known as the “Seven Sisters,” signed concessionary agreements with local governments. This arrangement gave the companies control over the oil – they set production levels and prices – while governments simply collected a check.

In February 1959, amid an oil glut, the Seven Sisters decided that a price correction was necessary. Acting unilaterally, they cut the price of oil, from US$2.08 to $1.80 by August 1960.

That may sound odd today, but back then oil prices didn’t always follow market forces and were typically set by the companies.…
continue reading





European Threats

 

European Threats

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. But it does affect our perspective on the world. Many of us don’t fully grasp how important Europe is to the US and global economy.

We may soon get a lesson on that. I’ve talked about Italy’s ongoing debt crisis, which is not improving, but Europe has other problems, too. Worse, events are coalescing such that several potential crises—all major on their own—could strike at the same time, and not too long from now. As I’ve been saying for about three years, there is no reason for the US to have a recession on its own. I think events elsewhere will push us into it, and Europe is a really big current risk. I know from my visits to Europe and discussions with friends there, they see all sorts of problems with Trump and particularly his tariffs.

However, another concern is that the various actors in Europe are not playing nice with each other. I tell my European friends the same forces that yielded Trump are coming to a European country near them. In some places, they already have.

So, in my never-ending quest to keep you ahead of the curve, I’ll review what’s happening “over there.” This may be a turnabout for European readers who rely on me to describe what’s happening over here. But as you’ll see, we are far more connected than separated by distance.

(Note: The link is to my favorite version of “Over There” written by George M. Cohan, here sung by James Cagney in 1942 for the film Yankee Doodle Dandy. It was written at the beginning of World War I and quickly became the number one song of not just that era but also the World War II era. Younger


continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Walmart Testing Flippy The Job-Stealing Robot Cook

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for a valuable team member in its in-store delis, according to Yahoo! Finance

While Flippy had somewhat of a rocky start at a Pa...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Walmart Testing Flippy The Job-Stealing Robot Cook

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for a valuable team member in its in-store delis, according to Yahoo! Finance

While Flippy had somewhat of a rocky start at a Pa...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver miners testing key breakout level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver miners (SIL) have had a rough 7-years, as the ETF finds itself nearly 75% below its 2011 highs. No doubt the long-term trend remains down.

SIL is has declined 27% since the first of this year (See chart below), where it is testing a falling support line at (1), with momentum currently at the lowest levels in 5-years.

While declining this year, SIL could be creating a bullish falling wedge, where it currently is in a tight jam between support and resistance.

This chart looks at the Year-to-Date performance of miners ETF’s-

...



more from Kimble C.S.

Biotech

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about - it's not likely to happen

Reminder: We're available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about – it's not likely to happen

Babies to order. Andrew crotty/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy A Cecile JW Janssens, Emory University

When Adam Nash was still an embryo, living in a dish in the lab, scientists tested his DNA to make sure it was free of ...



more from Biotech

Insider Scoop

Nvidia Bounces Back After News Of Potential SoftBank Sale

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NVDA 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday Boeing, Lennar, Nvidia, Gold ETF: 'Fast Money' Picks For December 3...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

...

more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

 

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

The Bitcoin bubble is perhaps the most extreme speculative bubble since the late 19th century. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Lee Smales, University of Western Australia

Nearly 170 years before the invention of Bitcoin, the journalist Charles Mackay noted the way whole communities could “fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit”. Millions of people, he wrote, “become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first”.

His book ...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time.   A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat.  But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior.   And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday.    A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.

On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has p...



more from Chart School

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



more from ValueWalk

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>