Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

How to Buy Stocks for a 15-20% Discount

Value Investors: 3 Dirt-Cheap Stocks Trading at a Massive Discount ...Are you down 50% one or more of your stocks?

That's the position a lot of people are finding themselves at the moment and some part of that is, of course, from the overall market drop but a lot of that is from paying too much when they bought the stock in the first place.  At Philstockworld.com, we teach our Members to NEVER pay retail prices for a stock – that's what retail traders do – not professional traders!  

First of all, see our article about Scaling Into Positions from the Strategy Section of Philstockworld.com.  The very short story is that you should never make a full commitment to a position early on.  You should break your portfolio down into Allocation Blocks (see Strategy Section) equal to no more than 10% and preferably 5% of your portfolio so that no one position can break you and THEN you break your allocation blocks into quarters and each position should be started with a 1/4 entry.

Now, not only can no single position damage your portfolio but no single entry should be able to damage it either.  For example, Disney (DIS) seemed like a very safe stock and, even at $140, it wasn't terribly overpriced but then the virus hit and all the movie theaters closed and the theme parks closed and POOF! – half their business disappeared and the stock dropped to $85 before recovering a bit to $94.  Had you bought DIS for $140 in February, you'd be down 33%.  

Had you, however, made a 1/4 allocation to DIS in Feb, let's say buying 100 shares for $14,000 in a $50,000 allocation block, you would have plenty of buying power to buy 100 more at $90 ($9,000) and your average on 200 shares would be would be $115 ($23,000) – not even 1/2 of your $50,000 and down only 18.3% on the larger position.

Don't miss out! How Disney uses FOMO (and other marketing gimmicks ...If DIS dropped another 33% to $62 (and we're assuming you still want to be in the stock, of course), you would have $27,000 on the sidelines in your allocation block and you could buy 200 more shares for just $12,400,
continue reading





How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work

 

How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work

Unemployed people wait outside a government office in NYC in 1933. AP Photo

By Jay L. Zagorsky, Boston University

CC BY-ND

The U.S. unemployment rate climbed from a half-century low of 3.5% to 4.4% in March – and is expected to go a lot higher.

But could the rate, as some predict, surpass the 25% joblessness the U.S. experienced at the peak of the Great Depression?

As a macroeconomist who has tracked the labor force for decades, I’ve been wondering about this myself.

There are actually two figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to estimate employment levels in the U.S.

One is the unemployment rate, which comes from the Current Population Survey. The U.S. Census Bureau contacts about 60,000 randomly selected households every month to get an estimate of this rate.

The other is an estimate of how many nonfarm jobs were lost or created in the month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics creates these figures by asking more than 140,000 private businesses, nonprofits and various state and local governments how many people were on their payroll at any time during the week containing the 12th of the month.

The latest data show the economy lost 701,000 jobs in March.

But these are just very early estimates of the impact from the coronavirus. It will get a lot worse before it gets better. About 10 million people have applied for employment benefits in the past two weeks alone.

The employment surveys – single-week snapshots – were both taken in mid-March, around the time the U.S. first began to experience a sharp uptick in cases, and some states, such as New York and California, ordered businesses to close. Both surveys likely only reflect the very early effects of the pandemic.

In addition, they consider someone employed even if they worked only part of that week. Starting off the week employed and ending the week laid…
continue reading





More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term.

 

David Brin is a scientist, transparency/internet security expert, public speaker, consultant, social media influencer and best-selling author. You can find his books on his website, and his latest articles on his blog.

 

More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term.

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog

First off, I want to discuss a couple of generalities. Let’s start with a fellow by name of Hyman Minsky, whose insights into the nature of stability in human systems have been getting a lot of attention. Basically, during times of great stability, many people – taking continuity for granted – pile up ever greater amounts of risk without hedging against a reversal… till reversal happens — a "Minsky Moment" when instability suddenly returns, at which point things shake out amid lots of pain. Perhaps everyone adjusts together, weaning themselves of bad habits and making things work better, with more wisdom. Alternately, things may go as Karl Marx, described, viewing such shakeouts as inevitably both culling the capitalist class and impoverishing workers, leading to revolution. 

Take the example of Japan, which had fine-tuned their economy according to the teachings of American quality and efficiency guru W. Edwards Demming. Taking Demming to an extreme, Toyota led at innovating ultra slim, just-in-time supply chains that squeeze every possible drop of margin from goods and services. Like an athlete who tunes her body to perfectly perform a particular movement, companies following Demming principles aimed for zero on-site storage or stockpiling – equivalent to the athlete’s nonexistent fat reserves. And just like such an athlete, stuck on a life-raft for a week without supplies, Japanese companies learned the “Minsky folly” of their mistake, when an exogenous shock – the Fukushima disaster – shattered supply chains and Japan virtually shut down.

As futurist Jamais Cascio  put it: "The villainization of over-capacity has been a hallmark of the current post-industrial capitalism environment. What we have seen over the past couple of months is the value of slack in a world that’s gone unstable." (Personal correspondence.) Certainly the short-sighted selling off of federal U.S. medical stockpiles, not long ago, is a rabid chicken now coming home to roost. One might wonder if this correlates with the rise of MBAs and decline of engineers in corporate boardrooms.


continue reading





Friday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 4 – Adjusting Our Goals to Reflect Reality

Time to get real.  

We've had 3 Workshops so far on fixing our portfolios this week:

Now we move onto a very important topic that combines what we have learned and that is Adjusting our Goals.  I talked about this on Tuesday (Part 2) in the Boeing example for someone who bought Boeing at $350 and now it's $150 (today it's $123!) and we do not sit there and HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) that BA will go back to $350 because it's no longer realistic!  

As much as you may love a stock – you have to be realistic when there is damage done to it's financial position or outlook and you have to adjust your expectations accordingly – perhaps even considering abandoning the stock altoghether – especially in times like these when there are other fantastic stocks on sale and, even as I say this, I'm thinking that BA is not really a fantastic stock anymore – they simply have too many troubles to be excited about them – even at $123.

So today we'll take a look at our Earnings Portfolio, which started out with $100,000 on October 21st and was originally supposed to be just quick earnings plays but, the way things went, we ended up getting "stuck" in some good bargains (or we thought as the time) and we rolled them into longer-term bets.  So now it's a bit of a hybrid but that makes it interesting.  At the moment, we're at $132,078 so up 32% for the year but, as you'll see – NOT because our picks were any good – but because our HEDGES saved us!  

Notice we have more cash than the portfolio has value – that's because we follow our core Philosphy, which is:  "Be the House – NOT the Gambler", which means we always try to be sellers of premium, not buyers and that gives us a huge advantage in our trades while also dropping a lot of cash into…
continue reading





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 04-01-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:49 – Checking on the Markets
00:04:19 – Earnings Portfolio
00:05:46 – STP
00:10:37 – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
00:17:01 – Crude Oil WTI | Butterfly Portfolio
00:25:24 – AAPL
00:22:57 – TSLA
00:26:30 – Earnings Portfolio
00:37:20 – COVID-19 Update
01:17:33 – IMAX
01:22:16 – F
01:24:16 – DOW
01:28:50 – Sugar
01:31:07 – Margin Portfolios
01:51:19 – ET

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





$5,000 Thursday – Yesterday’s Oil Petroleum Plays Pay Off Fast!

Wheee, that was fun!  

For thos of you lucky enough to subscribe to yesterday morning's PSW Report we had almost all day to get in at our target entry on Oil Futures (/CL) at $20 per barrell and we got a nice ride to $22.50 this morning – for gains of $2,500 per contract on our two long contracts as Oil blasts 10% higher this morning.

Apparently China is buying up oil to fill up their Strategic Petroleum Reserves while it's so cheap and who could have seen that coming?  We could!  That's what happens when things get cheap – people buy them!  That's kind of the whole point to INVESTING – understanding the true VALUE of things and taking avantage of situations where the PRICE does not match the VALUE.  QED!

Still, we don't want to be greedy so we'll set a stop at $22.50 once /CL is over that line and at 0.615 on our Gasoline (/RB) Futures that we picked up as it came back to the 0.55 line into the close – also stupidly cheap and now up close to $3,000 per contract at 0.62.

That was a pick we discussed in our Live Trading Webinar and again in our Live Member Chat Room and playing the Futures is another excellent way you can make quick money to supplement your portfolio during a choppy market. 

8:30 Update:  6.65M Unemployment Claims this week!  That's about as bad as expected but the market still sold off on the news (which is why we set tight stops on our energy trades) and now we can get back in if we cross over those lines again or perhaps lower).  That's double last week's pace and we never like to see accelerating negatives like that.  

That should have us re-testing yesterday's lows in the Futures and now I like Nasdaq (/NQ) 7,400 for a long play with very tight stops below.  Setting tight stops at a good support like means you limit your losses but not your upside.  2,450 on the S&P (/ES) Futures is already blown but we can jump on those when they cross back over…
continue reading





A Perfect Storm For Emerging Markets

 

A Perfect Storm For Emerging Markets

Courtesy of John Rubino, Dollar Collapse 

Pretend for a minute that it’s 2019 and you’re Brazil. Or maybe Turkey, your choice.

You’ve got a lot of infrastructure to build if you want to keep your people happy, and to fund those projects you’ll need to borrow a lot of money.

That’s not a problem, because borrowing is easy. The whole world wants to give you US dollars at interest rates that are shockingly low compared to what prevails in your domestic financial markets. And, icing on the cake, your experts tell you that the dollar is likely to fall versus your country’s currency, making it even easier to pay off those loans. So you load up, borrowing as much as the market will bear and use the proceeds to buy higher-yielding local bonds (thus earning a nice spread) while starting on those roads and bridges. It feels like a win-win with minimal risk.

Then the coronavirus happens. The US dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand and your local currency plunges on a global “risk-off” spasm.

And articles like the following start showing up in the global press:

Coronavirus jolts vulnerable economies

(NHK Japan) – The Institute of International Finance says that its latest data shows money is rapidly “disappearing” from emerging markets. Since late January, cumulative outflows have surpassed levels observed at the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis.

In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, investors are quickly selling emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira to buy up the US dollar.

Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, noted in a recent statement that investors have removed 83 billion dollars’ worth of money from emerging markets, the largest capital outflow ever recorded.

perfect storm emerging markets

For these countries, the problems don’t end there; they have been hit hard by plummeting oil and


continue reading





Whipsaw Wednesday – Only Down 700 Points? Not a Big Deal!

Wimps!

The Dow drops 700 points (1,200 off yesterday's high) and everyone is back to Doom and Gloom.  We are in the MIDDLE of a Global Catastrophe that will play out over the next two to three months – it's the expectations of the participants that need adjusting – not the markets...

This is like standing in the rubble of the World Trade Center the afternoon of 9/11 and asking why the markets haven't gone back up yet – it's irrational behavior.

Yes, the Government APPROVED Trillions of Dollars in stimulus on Friday but it hasn't been deployed yet.  That doesn't seem to stop a parade of idiots from going on TV to say "Well, I guess the market is telling us the stimulus wasn't enough."  What morons!  Even worse is the uncritical response they get from the Hosts (who are usually empty suits anyway) and the Producers whispering in their ears.  Welcome to the 21st Century, where your idiotic opinion gets the same weighting as actual facts!  

As our Members know, there's always a song in my head and this morning it's:

"When I'm riding in my car

And a man comes on the radio

He's tellin' me more and more

About some useless information

Supposed to fire my imagination

I can't get no

Satisfaction" – Stones 

Coronavirus In humans: Money-Making Hype From Your FearWhy do we listen to these people?  When have they ever been right?  The same thing happened in 2008 when the people who had the money (the Top 1%) got their bailouts (TARP) and then went about telling the Bottom 99% that the World was going to end and they should dump all their stocks – the same stocks the Top…
continue reading





Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

 

Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

What happens when a Confidential Informant becomes President?

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

The Greek, from The Wire

IN THE EARLY 1980s it was decided—by whom, and for what ultimate purpose, we can’t say for sure—that Donald John Trump would build a casino complex in Atlantic City, New Jersey—probably the most mobbed-up municipality in the state. Dealing with the mafia might have dissuaded some developers from pursuing a Boardwalk Empire, but not Trump. He was uniquely suited to forge ahead.

Donald’s father, the Queens real estate developer Fred Trump, had worked closely with Genovese-associated and -owned construction entities since building the Shore Haven development in 1947, when Donald was still in diapers (the first time around). Fred was an early mob adopter, the underworld equivalent of an investor who bought shares of Coca-Cola stock in 1919. The timelines is important to remember here. Organized crime did not exist in any meaningful way in the United States until Prohibition. Born in 1905, Fred Trump was just two years younger than Meyer Lansky, the gangster who more or less invented money laundering. Thus, Donald Trump is second generation mobbed-up.

When Donald first ventured from Queens to the pizzazzier borough of Manhattan in the seventies, he entered into a joint business deal with “Big” Paul Castellano, head of the Gambino syndicate, and Anthony “Fat Tony” Salerno, of the Genovese family he knew well through his father and their mutual lawyer Roy Cohn. As part of this arrangement, Trump agreed to buy concrete from a company operated jointly by the two families—and pay a hefty premium for the privilege. Only then, with double mob approval, could he move forward with the Trump Tower and Trump Plaza projects. (Among Cohn’s other clients at the time was Rupert Murdoch, whom he introduced to Trump in the seventies; you would be hard pressed to find three more atrocious human beings).

Atlantic City is in South Jersey, closer to Philadelphia than New York, so to build “his” casino, Trump needed to play ball with the…
continue reading





Tuesday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 2 – Resetting Your Positions

10 skills to be a successful stock traderWhat is your plan?  

Come on, I'm not messing around here – WHAT is your trading plan?  Surely you have one if you are in charge of trading your portfolio, right?  If you were a General in the Army and you didn't have a plan – your troops would very likely be screwed.   If you were head coach of a football team and you didn't have a plan – your team would likely lose.  If you were the CEO of a company and you didn't have a plan – your company would likely do poorly.

These things are obvious and while you know it's a bad idea to perform surgery without a plan or mount a legal defense without a plan – somehow some of you business owners, doctors, lawyers and other professionals who trade the markets think it's OK to trade without a plan.  It's not – it's a very bad idea!  

On the right are some good trading guidelines but #1, as it should be, is HAVE A TRADING PLAN.  And it doesn't mean "Until it Fails" – it's even more important to have a plan to FIX your positions AFTER the first plan fails.  Very sadly, a lot of people take 3, 4 and 5 too seriously and hold tight and cross their fingers when faced with a major market sell-off but your plan CANNOT BE waiting until the market recovers.  That is not a plan – that is FEAR!

What we need to do, when the market drops, is have a very rational look at our positions – under the new circumstances – and decide if they are still worth keeping in our portfolio and, most importantly, whether or not we have realistic targets for them to recover.  

Let's take Boeing (BA) for example.  If you owned BA at $350 and watched it fall to $300 but then back to $350 so the next time it hit $300 you weren't worried but  then $275 and back to $300 and suddenly $250 but you thought surely it would bounce back from that and then below $200 the same week and now it's too late to do anything about it but cross your
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Zero Hedge

"They've Left Me High And Dry": Here Is The Real Reason Companies Have Drawn Down A Record $293 Billion In Revolvers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One week ago, we reported that starting exactly one month ago on March 5, an unprecedented wave of corporate revolver draws was unleashed, resulting in what JPMorgan calculated was a record $208BN in revolving credit facilities being fully drawn (for the full list of companies see ...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

AZO and ORLY: Which one is a better buy?

By Marek Mscichowski. Originally published at ValueWalk.

AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) and O’Reilly Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:ORLY): Both auto parts retailers are uncorrelated to S&P 500, but which one is a better buy?

By Price Earnings Ratio Tracker Team

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Over recent months I have created valuation models for the two main competitors in the auto parts retail business – AutoZone, the leader on the coasts with a $26 billion market ca...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Repeating 2000 & 2007 Patterns Almost Exactly?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does History Repeat? Is does rhyme sometimes!!!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 20-years.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2000-2003 bear market. On the week of 3/23/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear market resumed.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2007-2009 bear market. On the week of 3/21/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.