Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Turn Back Tuesday – Virus Fears Heat Up over the Weekend

Now Apple (AAPL) has warned they will miss on revenues.

We went from 64,456, 1,384 and 7,115 Friday morning to 73,336, 1,874, 13,054 so that's 13.7% more infected (that ship is a nightmare), 35.4% more dead (we knew that was coming) and 83.4% more recovered – there's a bright spot but almost 2,000 dead is certainly not.  SARS killed only 744 in a much longer period of time.  

At some point, investors are going to start taking this seriously, I think.  130+ S&P 500 companies have mentioned Coronavirus as affecting them somehow but only 40 guided down over the issue but now AAPL is one of them so it's making things interesting.  Fortunately, in Friday morning's PSW Report (which you can subscribe to here), we shorted the index futures over the weekend and that was good for a total gain of $6,622.50 – a great way to start the week! 

We're done with them for now as we expected the indexes to snap back a bit into the open (I called that in this morning's Live Member Chat Room) but we'll either look to re-load or add some more index shorts to our options portfolios later today as there's no reasn not to have protection in this volatile evironment.

Germany looks like they are heading into a Recession and now Japan is at the brink with 9 out of 14 Economists seeing the economy shrinking in Q1, after already shrinking sharply in Q4.  As we were discussing last week, Japan is about 300% of their GDP in debt and if we combine that with a shrinking economy, we can get Greece 2008 on steroids.  

Economists now see the virus preventing a rebound this quarter and keeping the economy in reverse. The immediate impact of the epidemic has been to stop hundreds of thousands of Chinese visitors to Japan, the biggest source of tourist income. The outbreak could also further curtail dismal spending by Japanese consumers, as they avoid crowded places after reports of some infections in Japan’s biggest cities.

Japan, in fact, had a huge jump in infections over the past week, from 28 last Wednesday to 66 this morning – that's…
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Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is a fairly minor shift in sentiment after a few days in which investor concerns had been steadily receding. There appears to be a real danger of underestimating the likely economic impact of this crisis. China’s manufacturing sector in particular faces an unprecedented challenge because supply chains have been so seriously disrupted.

Coronavirus daily new cases

Worldometers

Well over 80 cities have gone into lockdown, including the entire areas of five Chinese provinces – Hubei, Liaoning, Jiangxi, An’hui and Inner Mongolia – and four main cities in Zhejiang province, affecting well over 275 million people. Since February 10, Beijing and Shanghai have further restricted the movement of people, having already extended the Chinese New Year break.

My parents live in Jiangxi province and are among millions semi-quarantined at home. The local government allows one person from each household to go out every two day to buy necessities. Even in cities not under compulsory lockdown, there are rarely people on the streets. The tweet below shows the Nanjing Road in Shanghai, the busiest shopping precinct in the country. It was taken on January 26 but the situation is not much better now.

This is taking a serious toll on the Chinese economy. No statistics on the actual losses are available yet, but for example, the number of intercity passengers on public…
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These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

The real expected value of random stock research is zero, by Tyro Capital

Home prices are rising faster than wages in roughly 80 percent of American metro regions, by Annie Lowrey

Dynamic withdrawal strategies transform sequence risk into lifestyle risk, by Adam Collins

What tech has done to retail, is unfolding in media, by Scott Galloway

The problem when studying historical events is that you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past, by Morgan Housel 

If you’re a long-term investor in equities, experiencing a large decline is a matter of when, not if, by Charlie Bilello

My heart is full and my cup runneth over, by Blair duQuesnay

If history is any indicator, those skittish during the great bull market will be panic stricken when volatility hits, by Verdad Capital

Sometimes you have to light your money on fire, by Ben Carlson

One of the arguments for why markets crash during viral outbreaks is that market participants are anticipating worsening results, by Nick Maggiulli

Podcasts

I’ve never been afraid of taking big risks, with Bill Simmons and Bob Iger

Books

In August, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange alone identified forty-six instances where Deutsche had violated technical rules regarding the trading of derivatives, by David Enrich

 




The Secret of Stock Picking

 

The Secret of Stock Picking

Courtesy of 

Isiah Thomas used to say, “The secret of basketball is that it’s not about basketball.

Bill Simmons wrote about this in his book. He said:

Those teams were loaded with talented players, yes, but that’s not the only reason they won. They won because they liked each other, knew their roles, ignored statistics and valued winning over everything else. They won because their best players sacrificed to make everyone else happy. They won as long as everyone remained on the same page. By that same token, they lost if any of those three factors weren’t in place…Year after year, at least one contender fell short for reasons that had little of nothing to do with basketball. And year after year, the championship team prevailed because it got along and everyone committed themselves to their roles…The secret of basketball is that it’s not about basketball.

Similarly, the secret of stock picking is that it’s not about stock picking. It’s about position sizing, humility, risk management, your opponents, yourself, the right partners, the right people and the right culture, to name a few.

I thought about this today after I read Tyro Capital’s 2019 annual commentary.

Here are a few snippets from their piece that struck a chord, none of which are about selecting stocks.

The fundamental error in defaulting to low valuation instead of deep fundamental underwriting work as a top of-funnel screen is best explained if one were to imagine the stock market as a retail store. You speak to the salesperson and they say to you, “OK, we have 1000 different things you can buy. These 800? They’re all the same price. These 100? They’re super nice and very expensive. Finally, we have these 100 that no one wants. They’re very cheap.” Now, imagine after that he told you, “Oh, and a thousand people already picked through the cheap ones.”

This is something you can’t learn about in The Intelligent Investor.

Investing is a very difficult and complex game, and many money managers


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Valentine’s Day Virus – Dow has 30,000 in Site

Happy Valentine's Day!

64,456 people are now infected, 1,384 are dead, 7,155 (11.1%) have recovered in the month since this virus began.  There are over 8,000 people hospitalized in "serious" condition, that's almost 15% of those infected – especially if you include the dead, who were probably considered "serious" at some point as well.  Still, the markets are generally ignoring not only the actual virus but the effects it is having on the global economy

The Nasdaq is, in fact, 5% higher than it was before the virus oubreak and 7.5% higher than it was when it sold off on that news.  I guess you can say it simply resumed it's climb, now up almost 20% since December because, you know, that's how the stock market works now.

Unfortunately, that's also how viruses work and I'm not going to bore you with any doom and gloom stuff other than to point out that we are heading into a 3-day weekend in the US (President's Day on Monday) and, even if we are only adding 4,000 new cases per day, that means we'll be at about 80,000 on Tuesday and around 100,000 by next Friday so I'm still very concerned about next week – as people tend to freak out about 6-digit numbers.  

Last Friday, there were 31,523 (1/2) infected, 638 (1/2) dead and 30 in Singapore (1/2), 25 in Thailand (.75), 25 in Hong Kong (1/2), 25 in Japan (.86) and 24 in South Korea (.86).  That's what we have to watch closely as Singapore and Hong Kong are a huge worry with a 100% gain in a week and, of course, you can see how 100,000 by next Friday is OPTIMISTIC as we're projecting a 50% slowdown from the current pace of the spread.  

Even as the virus is mostly contained to Japan, the economic impact is already spreading across the globe with Germany reporting ZERO (0) GDP growth in Q4 and, due to the virus, possible NEGATIVE GDP in Q1 – pretty much a recession with 2 non-positive quarters.  

"The impact from the coronavirus on the


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When You Were Born > Everything Else

 

When You Were Born > Everything Else

Courtesy of 

What is the most important factor behind one’s investing experience? Is it their ability to analyze a business, their temperament, or their network? It’s none of these things. For almost all investors, the most important driver of investment returns is the year you were born, and therefore how old you are when you began investing.

One of my favorite data points ever, courtesy of Nick Maggiulli, is that if you had invested from 1960-1980 and beaten the market by 5% each year, you would have made less money than if you had invested from 1980-2000 and underperformed the market by 5% a year.

I made this chart* that shows what the market was doing as different generations turned 22 years old, an age where people first start investing. Perhaps 30 would have been a better time to show the beginning of one’s investing journey, but the point remains that you have no control over the environment around you.

There are ways to make money in bad markets and ways to lose money in good ones, but by and large a rising tide lifts all boats and treacherous waters sink them. There’s no getting around the fact that for most investors, when you were born will trump everything else.

It’s unsettling to acknowledge that the experience we have in the market hinges on something that’s entirely out of our control, but hey, like De Niro told Pacino in The Irishman, “it’s what it is.” Plan accordingly.


*the chart below shows generations by birth year. It’s impossible not to notice that these just so happen to line up almost perfectly with different regimes, alternating from bearish to bullish. I say “just so happen” because I don’t believe there is any causality here.

 





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 02-12-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 
Major Topics:

00:02:11 – Checking on the Market
00:04:54 – National Debt & China Debt
00:27:30 – What's happening in China now
00:33:29 – Tradig Tecniques
00:35:37 – Investing in Leverage
00:44:26 – IMAX
00:47:44 -HRB
00:47:58 – TOL
00:48:27 – TD
00:48:47 – M
00:49:08 – Chipotle
00:49:21 – VALE
00:49:35 – US Steel
00:49:40 – LB
00:49:59 – TAP
00:50:18 – MJ
00:50:27 – CHL
00:50:39 – MO
00:51:11 – MLY
00:51:15 – Dividend Portfolio Trades
00:51:27 -IBRT
00:51:42 – SPWR
00:51:50 – GOLD
00:52:31 – LABU
00:53:59 – TXN
00:54:16 – MDR
00:54:23 – SUGAR | OIL
01:00:07 – FUTURES CHART
01:02:52 – JO
01:12:23 – AAPL
01:13:47 – TCNNF
01:14:55 – UBER
01:22:33 – IBM
01:25:30 – DISNEY
01:39:25 – HBI
01:40:04 – LTP
01:42:18 – MAC
01:44:35 – Money Talk Portfolio


Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!




$10,000 Thursday – Hedging Pays off – Again!

60,329 infected, 1,369 dead.

Yes, that's up 33% from YESTERDAY due to a "reclassification" of certain patients (from alive to dead?) or some would say it's the unraveling of a cover-up in China, where conditions are significantly worse than we have been led to believe by the Mainstream Media – whose primary goal is to keep us shopping at all costs...

Fortuntately, our paranioa is paying off and the Nasdaq (/NQ) hedges we suggested in yesterday morning's PSW Report (and reiterated in our Live Trading Webinar, of course) are already up over $7,000 and the S&P 500 (/ES) hedges are up $4,550 as of 7:30 AM.  We'll put a stop on the set at $10,000 (3,350 on /ES and 9,550 on /NQ) to lock in those gains and we'll just add it to our CASH!!! pile because, as I said in the Webinar – I don't want to run out and buy things until next week, when we will hopefully have a clearer picture of what's going on in China.  

Unfortunately, the picture we have today is NOT GOOD:

Let's just say that uptick on the chart is "disturbing" but I'm more disturbed by the very slow climb in recoveries (green) as that's a very long slope, between infection and recovery and 6,017 recovered and 1,369 dead is not the best survival percentage (81.5%).  If the common flu was only 80% survivable – do you think you would change your habits?  Again, I don't like to be an alarmist but no one else seemed to be alarmed this week so my concerns sounded alarmist – but I'm just being CONSERVATIVE – which I hear is quite in fashion these days…

My other concern in China, as I noted yesterday as well, is their looming debt bomb and Bloomberg picked up on my theme and wrote a good article summarizing the situation but I think this chart says it all – WORSE THAN JAPAN!

300% of their GDP is debt and half of it has been added since the Financial Crisis (10 years) so we're talking about $23
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Coronavirus outbreak: a new mapping tool that lets you scroll through timeline

 

Coronavirus outbreak: a new mapping tool that lets you scroll through timeline

Coronavirus outbreak mapper.

Courtesy of Edward Parker, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

In the final weeks of 2019, a virus slipped furtively from animal to human somewhere in the Chinese city of Wuhan. This inauspicious moment marked the sounding of a starting pistol, unheard at first but now echoing deafeningly across the globe. The race to stop a pandemic had begun.

We have been trying to keep up with the novel coronavirus ever since. Each day, we are faced with worrying headlines reporting the latest twists and turns of this outbreak. We have seen the virus spill over China’s borders and spread to at least 25 countries worldwide, and watched with mounting anxiety as the number of cases creeps ever higher. We wait apprehensively to see where the virus shows up next.


You can access the real-time map here.


At the time of writing, there have been 43,036 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and the death toll stands at 1,018. Both of these numbers will be out of date by the time you read this.

In isolation, the daily headlines can be difficult to interpret, offering a static snapshot of a moving target. It is hard, for instance, to tell if the situation is getting better or worse, and to what extent control efforts are having any effect.

To provide a clearer picture of this evolving story, at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, we have developed a new outbreak mapping tool.

The site is updated daily based on figures published by the World Health Organization (WHO). While other live trackers developed by Johns Hopkins University and the WHO are updated more frequently, our tool enables users to wind back the clock and view the global situation on any given day of the coronavirus outbreak. It also enables the unfolding situation to be compared with other recent outbreaks, including the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2003 (also caused by a coronavirus), the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa.


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Worry-Free Wednesday?

Image result for money printing central banks45,204 infected, 1,116 dead, 5,085 recovered.

Not much point in even tracking the virus, which is now called Covid-19, since it doesn't seem to be able to affect the markets or, as Powell said yesterday, whatever economic damage is done, China will make it up with stimuls because – STIMULUS FIXES EVERYTHING!!!  At least that seems to be the 21st Century's answer to all economic ills, why worry about anything when we can just print more money?  

As you can see from the chart above, the real virus that's infecting the World is FREE MONEY and just the Big Four Central Banksters have printed $25 TRILLION in the past 10 years and you know China, India, Australia and others were not slacking off at their printing presses either.  Overall, roughly 5% of the entire Global GDP for the past decade has come from Central Bank printing presses – all designed to make you think your Government is doing its job and growing the economy – even though it's really just growing the balance sheets of the Central Banks, which is really a hidden form of debt.

Image result for global debt chartThe non-hidden forms of debt have jumped up $50,000,000,000,000 in the past decade and that's another 5% of Global GDP added in debt each year as well so of course it FEELS like we're doing great – just like your children feel like you are doing great when you put a trip to Disneyland on the credit card – it's the time of their lives for them and you have to deal with the bills when you get home.  

Of course the great thing about adding $100Tn in debt to prop up the Global Economy is that EVERYBODY's doing it and no one is paying the bill.  With no responsible adults in the room, we are all partying like it's 1999 – only 150% more in debt than we were then.  Japan is, in fact, over 250% of their GDP in debt so it does seem like there's no actual limit to how much debt a country can go into – as they still seem to function.


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Phil's Favorites

A military perspective on climate change could bridge the gap between believers and doubters

 

A military perspective on climate change could bridge the gap between believers and doubters

A soldier stands guard at the damaged entrance to Tyndall Air Force Base in Panama City, Florida, Oct. 11, 2018, after Hurricane Michael. AP Photo/David Goldman

Courtesy of Michael Klare, Hampshire College

As experts warn that the world is running out of time to head off severe climate change, discussions of what the U.S. should do about it are split into opposing camps. The scie...



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Zero Hedge

The Angels Are Falling: Macy's Downgraded To Junk; Stock Tumbles

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

More than two years after Horseman Capital first suggested shorting BBB names on the expectation that a coming recession would lead to an avalanche of "fallen angels", or 'just barely' investment grade names being downgraded to junk, resulting in a major hit to the high yield sector which, sized just over $1 trillion would not be able to absorb the roughly $3 trillion in BBB-rated credits without a corporate bond market crisis, the thesis is star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Leader Facing Important Long-Term Breakout Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2009 lows, Semiconductors have been taken a leadership role as they have far outpaced the gains of the S&P 500.

Gains since the 2009 lows; SOXX Index = +821% S&P 500 = +273%.

The SOXX index has spent the majority of the past 10-years inside of rising channel (1), which first started at the  2009 lows.

As the SOXX index is testing the top of this 10-year rising channel, it is also testing its Fibonacci 423% extension level of its 2001 highs and 2009 lows at (2).

This leading index would send a positive message t...



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Insider Scoop

6 Consumer Cyclical Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares rose 6.9% to $855.12 during Tuesday's pre-market session. The most recent rating by Morgan Stanley, on February 18, is at Underweight, with a price target of $500.00.
  • Foresight Autonomous, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRSX) shares moved upwards by 5.8% to $1.10.
  • NIO, Inc. (NYSE: NIO) stock surged 2.4% to $3.87. The most recent rating by Piper Jaffray, on December 03, is at Neutral, with a price ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



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The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unloc...



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ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) Outperforms Large-Cap Benchmarks

While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



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Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned wi...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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