Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Buyers of the Lost ARKK

 

Buyers of the Lost ARKK

Courtesy of The Reformed Broker

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Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:

  • Instagram Is Facebook – What if Instagram financials were broken out or a spinoff was attempted?
  • Too Much Supply – About 300 SPACs launched in Q1, raising almost $100 billion (more than all of last year!)
  • Buying the ARK Dip – Cathie fans were BUYING not selling the dip, as had been much prophesied.
  • Not Enough Supply – “Cars are 2021’s version of toilet paper in 2020.”
  • Revenge of the Winkelvii – “I’m 6’5” and there’s two of me.”
  • More on Roaring 20’s – Soaring business investment, manufacturing orders, and non-farm payroll numbers.
  • Stock Guru of The Family – What’s the best way to educate friends and family on investing?
  • New Dad Investing – How would you allocate dollars today to fund summer camps, bar mitzvahs, and weddings over the next 10-20 years?

And much more!

Josh and Michael (and Ben) use YCharts when creating visuals for this show, as well as for many aspects of their business. 

Standard disclaimer

Check out the Goldmine podcast to hear more from Michael, Josh and the rest of the Ritholtz Mafia.

Join Josh for a new round of The Boiler Room on Clubhouse. Come prepared to raise your hand and pitch us your favorite stock if you’d like. We’re ready for you!





Which Way Wednesday – Fed Minutes and Fed Speak to Hold Us Up

What are they so afraid of? 

Gravity, I guess, as the S&P 500 is at 4,063 and the Dow is at 33,333, Nasdaq 13,561 and Russell 2,256.  This isn't just high, this is insanely high.  14,000 on the Nasdaq is 6,000 points higher than 8,000, which wasn't even the March low but it is where Billions of Transactions valued the Nasdaq stocks between late 2018 and early 2020 – two years worth of traders didn't want to pay more than 8,000 for these Nasdaq stocks yet now, after a year of a Global Pandemic – they are racing to pay 75% more money?

Yesterday we talked about the Fed and how they are manipulating the bond market to make it seem like there is demand for bonds and a side-effect of that is they are flooding the system with money.  How?  Well, in the old days, people used to EARN money and they would sometimes use it to buy bonds and the money would go out of circulation and be tied up in a T-Bill for 10 years – lowering the free money supply.  The Government, of course, would spend the money but it's money they were going to spend anyway, whether you lent it to them or not – the money you put into the bond just helped to balance the budget.

Now that's out the window and the Government spends and you spend and Corporations spend and no one seems to worry about paying debt back and, since no one is really buying US bonds, the Fed simply prints money and uses that new money to buy bonds.   That lowers the amounts of bonds in circulation, keeping their "value" up – which translates into low yields.  Since the Fed buys bonds effectively from people who are rolling it over, the money goes into circulation, replacing the bonds and, since investors are not too keen on bonds – where does the money go?  Stocks!  See how easy economics is?  

Some goes to Housing, some goes to Commodities and some actually goes into the Economy but mostly money is looking for a return and we're sure not getting it in the banks or from bonds, so stocks win!  The money going into the economy also causes inflation, of…
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Momentum Tuesday…Momentum Monday Was Not Enough

 

Momentum Tuesday…Momentum Monday Was Not Enough

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I thought I covered a lot of ground on the momentum in the markets with my regular Momentum Monday show (taped on Sunday), but Monday happened.

So I give you a first…Momentum Tuesday.

For many in the 2020 momentum names (technology and biotech especially), 2021 seems like a bummer. Welcome to ‘rotation’ and ‘mean reversion’.

Let’s also not forget the people I love to hate at the banks, who seem upset they had no part in the COVID crisis and have quickly made up for it in 2021 with their role in Archegos.

The geniuses at Credit Suisse just took a $4.7 billion hit because cheating is hard. Honestly boggles the mind how many awful things Credit Suisse has done over the decades, but one look at their stock chart is an easy reminder.

Don’t forget that Credit Suisse is the Goldman Sachs of SPACs (I know I know) and likely the bank behind most of the SPACs now trading below $10 (Social Leverage used Barclay’s as our lead).

Now that most of you March 2020 to Feb 2021 bull market babies are bummed out, I am here to point out that you are pretty much alone.

Facebook, Microsoft and Google hit all-time highs yesterday.

So did the $FM (Frontier Markets which includesKenya and Nigeria).

The Europe 600 is breaking out and JC has been waiting for this since high school…

Despite Credit Suisse the financials are breaking out to 14 year highs…

A lot of new momentum surfacing and it probably means inflation is here (the inflation expectation meters are surely flashing red) which I will try and cover tomorrow.

PS – Here is Nikita’s weekly update on the SPAC market…there is some good news behind all the bad price action.





No Top Tuesday – Is there Ever and End to this Rally?

Up and up we go.

It's truly amazing that the Nasdaq has actually doubled off the March lows and it only fell 30% in March so we're up almost 50% from our pre-pandemic levels and was Trump really that bad for the economy that his policies were holding the market back from a 50% gain at the time?  

Much as I disliked Trump and his policies, no, they were not responsible for our "poor" market performance.  The Nasdaq was around 5,000 when he took office in 2017 – back to where it had peaked out in early 2000 – and Trump's tax cuts and low rates and weak Dollar rammed us up 140% higher by the time he left office to just under 12,000.  We were back to 7,000 last March on virus fears and now it turns out the virus must have been great for the economy as we're up to 14,000 – with Biden adding 2,000 more points (16.66%) in just two months of presidenting.  

Will we ever see a top to this market or will it just keep going and going?  CNBC had Tom Lee on yesterday and he predicts a "face-ripper rally" in April – as if 8% per month is a slow start to the year.  "I think there’s a level of surprise coming in April because we already had a strong finish beginning Wednesday of last week. It’s really three days of strong rallies and history shows this is really building up to be what could be a, potentially, S&P 4,200 before the end of the month,” Lee said.

Well, 4,200 is only up 5% for the month, so it's actually slowing and not ripping any faces that I can see but it makes a good headline and sound-bytes are what matter, right?  Meanwhile, the entire stock market rally is nothing compared to the explosion in Crypto Currencies in the past year as that market has goine from $200Bn last March to $2,000Bn today – up 10 times in 12 months!  

Where did that $2Tn come from?  What does it matter anymore?  The NFT market is likely to pass $2Tn as well as it's a much broader market and single NFTs are already being auctioned off for tens of millions of Dollars while a single Bitcoin is on
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Momentum Monday – Homebuilders (Tik Tok Basement Studios and Influencer Rooms), Semiconductors and Crypto Lead The Way

 

Momentum Monday – Homebuilders (Tik Tok Basement Studios and Influencer Rooms), Semiconductors and Crypto Lead The Way

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Happy Monday everyone.

As always here on Monday’s blog, I review the world of Momentum to get ready for the week.

Each Saturday I start my week by scanning the Stocktwits 25. In technology it is semiconductors leading. Facebook and Google are leading the FAANG gang.

Ivanhoff and I tour the markets in this week’s episode and once again Ebay catches my eye, but we talk mostly semiconductors, crypto and homebuilders. You can watch/listen here on YouTube.

Ivanhoff had this to say:

For the better part of 2021, we got used to seeing constant sector rotations. When small caps were rising, large-cap tech was pulling back. Things changed last week. All major indexes rallied together and cleared pivotal levels.

Semiconductor stocks are the new leaders. It started with semiconductor equipment stocks like AMAT, LRCX, UCTT, ASML, ICHR, KLAC breaking out first while the main indexes were chopping in a range. Then, chipmakers and designers joined the rally last week – MU, TSM, ON, NVDA, AMD, INTC, QCOM, QRVO, SWKS, etc. If the same trend persists, we are likely to see the lower-priced, smaller-cap semiconductor stocks start to outperform.

It might come as a surprise but oil stocks are among the best-performing stocks for the past 6 months which de facto makes them momentum stocks. Quite a few of them broke out last week after a month or so of consolidation.

Most homebuilders are setting up for a potential breakout which should not be a big surprise with the homebuilders ETF at all-time highs. Some names to watch next week: BZH, TPH, MTH, TOL, etc. They are not fast movers but are looking constructively.

As for the crypto run…it is wild and spectacular and feels a lot like 2017. The total market cap of crypto passed $2 trillion. Something so large financially


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Monday Market Momentum – Still Heading Higher?

ImageUp and up we go.

Of course Europe is closed on Easter Monday so it's a very low-volume affair and we'll have to see what sticks this week. We have a few early earnings reports but nothing Earth-shaking.  Earnings reports start in earnest next Wednesday, with JPM, GS (and that's all we need to know) along with Wells Fargo, Progressive, First Republic and Bed Bath and Beyond – a very good mix to start earnings season off with.  

Until then, we continue to tread water in thin air (there's a mixed metaphor!) and we're thin on Fed speech this week though Powell speaks on Thursday.  This morning we have PMI, ISM and Factory Orders, JOLTS tomorrow, Housing, Trade and Fed Minutes Wednesday, along with Consumer Credit, nothing Thursday and PPI and Inventories on Friday.  Kind of boring, actually.

Signs, so far, point to a very uneven recovery – despite the strong Jobs Numbers on Friday.  Texas will blow up this week as people get their electric bills for last month's storm – people simply can't afford $3,000 electric bills to heat their homes.  As you can see from the chart on the left, sub-prime borrowers are getting worse, not better and $1,400 isn't going to fix that mess.  Don't forget that mortgage and rent forgiveness will expire one day – and that's a crisis we're just kicking down the road so far.  

Auto loans are a key indicator of how riskier borrowers are faring. The loans represent the biggest monthly debt payment for many subprime borrowers, who often don’t have mortgages or college debt. Many work in restaurants, hotels and bars that have been hurt badly by Covid-19.

On the other end of the financial spectrum, stock buybacks are a thing again as companies are buying back 30% more stick this year than last year, bringing us back to 2018 levels of buying (which were insane) at 50% higher prices than they were buying the shares before – what could possibly go wrong???  For our beloved Bansters, the Fed announced at the end of last month "the temporary and additional restrictions on bank holding company dividends and
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Consumer Confidence Flies as Stock Market Hits New Highs

 

Consumer Confidence Flies as Stock Market Hits New Highs

Courtesy of Wade Slome, Investing Caffeine


As the economy starts reopening from a global pandemic that is improving, consumers and businesses are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel. The surge in the recently reported Consumer Confidence figures to a new one-year high (see chart below) is evidence the recovery is well on its way. A stock market reaching new record highs is further evidence of the reopening recovery. More specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average catapulted 2,094 points higher (+6.2%) for the month to 32,981 and the S&P 500 index soared +4.2%. A rise in interest rate yields on the 10-Year Treasury Note to 1.7% from 1.4% last month placed pressure on technology growth stocks, which led to a more modest gain of +0.4% in the tech-heavy NASDAQ index during March.

Source: MarketWatch

Comeback from COVID

With a combination of 150 million vaccine doses administered and 30 million cumulative COVID cases, the U.S. population has creeped closer toward herd immunity protection against the virus and pushed down hospitalizations dramatically (see chart below).

Source: Centers for Disease Control (CDC)

Also contributing to investor optimism have been the rising values of investments and real estate assets thanks to…
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Happy Easter/Passover!

Happy holiday!

The markets are closed this morning but, for some reason, they are still releasing the Non-Farm Payroll Report, which is usually a market-mover.  It's 8:30 now and the numbers are bigger than expected with 916,000 new jobs added in Biden's second full month as President and that's well over expectations and, more importantly, Unemployment is down to 6%.  The Futures are open and the Dow is blasting higher and the other indexes are likely to follow 

There’s a seismic shift going on in the U.S. economy,” said Beth Ann Bovino, a Ph.D. economist at S&P Global. The confluence of additional federal stimulus, growing consumer confidence and the feeling that the pandemic is close to abating - despite rising infections in recent weeks - is propelling economic growth and hiring, she said.

Stronger growth should return jobs to industries with the deepest losses during the pandemic, such as restaurants, stores and hotels, and support additional job growth at warehouses, delivery services and manufacturing.  Job growth could also pick up in hard-hit cities in the Northeast and California, and in tourist hotbeds such as Las Vegas and Orlando.

There are still about two million fewer food-service jobs this year in the U.S. than before the pandemic-related shutdowns that began in March 2020. The industry accounts for one in five total jobs lost in the past year, suffering the most pandemic-related losses.  Those jobs can come back quickly once we are vaccinated and more people with jobs means more people who can afford to eat out – so the cycle tends to feed itself.

Another major factor in favor of a better Q2 is our very successful vaccination roll-out in the US with an average of 2.9M doses PER DAY being given out.  That is 87M more in April and 90M more in May – only if we don't speed up.  Biden is miles ahead of his vaccine rollout schedule after 72 days on the job.  30% of the poulation has gotten at least on dose and I'm getting mine tomorrow!   My appointment is at 11:36 am, so they have started to get very exact and efficient about it and that's helping to
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Phil’s Stock World’s Weekly Webinar – March 31, 2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

Phil’s Stock World’s Weekly Webinar – March 31, 2021

 

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 – Bonds
00:00:50 – Energy
00:01:21 – COVID-19 Updates and Vaccination
00:03:47 – Government Debt Spending and Tax Cuts
00:09:10 – FTR
00:09:45 – Cont. Government Debt Spending and Tax Cuts
00:12:37 -USD | Currencies
00:14:45 : National Debt
00:16:01 – Infrastructure Plays from other Companies
00:26:54 – CHPT
00:37:08 – CAT
00:38:18 – EIA Petroluem Status Report
00:41:14 – STP
00:41:53 – LTP
00:42:19 – DJIA | S&P 500
00:57:02 – SUN
01:05:28 – What is the Probability of Success for Re-entry with tight Stocks (Shorting Oil)
01:08:35 – GOLD | SILVER 
01:10:48 – IMAX
01:13:05 – Seeking Alpha
01:13:52 – DIS
01:14:48 – Cont. IMAX
01:17:49 – ABR
01:18:57 – CIM | NLY
01:24:59 – Nasdaq 100

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view our past weekly webinars here.





Thrilling Thursday – Learning to Love the Stimulus

U.S. Gross Domestic Product - forecast 2030 | StatistaUp and up we go.

I have to tell you, Biden's "restrained" $2.3Tn (it gets bigger by the hour) Infrastructure Bill really hit the sweet spot for the US economy.  It's "only" about $300Bn a year but it will actuall be paid for by our beloved Corporate Citizens, who will pay 7% more taxes than they aren't paying now.  THAT is how you grow an economy properly and this year, we'll grow 6%, to $22Tn and let's say we grow "just" 4% for the next 7 years, that's $29Tn and if we "only" add $1Tn of debt each year, that would "only" be $35Tn.

35/29 is 120% Debt to GDP vs our current 28/20.5 = 136% so, IN THEORY, Biden's current plan is going to shrink our Debt/GDP ration while growing the economy 25%, bringing tax collections up by about $1Tn per year – enough to cover the inflationary boost caused by the rising GDP.

As long as we have no emergencies and nothing else needs to be spent – things should be getting better…  Unfortunately, that's already baked into the marekt forecasts so it's a fragile rally but a rally nonetheless – as long as all the news stays good.  The news stays good for Pfizer, who have found their vaccine remains 91.3% effective after 6 months from their Phase 3 Trial and that's good news for all of us but mostly for PFE, who will have to give us Covid booster shots the way we get flu shots – annually.  

Our PFE trade is "only" up $1,745 (2,181%) since our net $80 entry back on October 7th (see me discussing the trade on BNN's Money Talk) and it's a $7,000 spread that's almost at goal ($37) but you can still buy it for net $1,525 – they are simply giving this money away!  That's a $5,475 (359%) profit potential from here if PFE can simply get over $37 by Jan of 2023.  Those are the kind of very simple trades we like to have in our Money Talk Portfolio, which is up 50% since that October show:

The only move we made since…
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Phil's Favorites

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension - what this means for you

 

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension – what this means for you

Vials of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to prevent COVID-19. The use of this particular vaccine has been halted temporarily. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration on April 13, 2021 halted use of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine that has been given to 6.8 million people in the U.S. The pause is...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension - what this means for you

 

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension – what this means for you

Vials of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to prevent COVID-19. The use of this particular vaccine has been halted temporarily. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration on April 13, 2021 halted use of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine that has been given to 6.8 million people in the U.S. The pause is...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

ValueWalk

UK's First-Time Buyers See House Prices Climb

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

First-time buyers paying as much as £73k more to get on the ladder since the market reopened

Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Climbing Cost Of Houses For First Time Buyers

Research by the new build snagging and defect management experts, ...



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Zero Hedge

Trading Bonds In Venezuela? Bring A Gunman And Cash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Venezuelan bond market - described by Bloomberg as one of the 'tiniest and almost certainly the most primitive' in the world - is also one of the most dangerous.

Based in Caracas where Nicolas Maduro's socialist government is 'ever so slowly freeing up the battered economy' for capitalistic endeavors, the US dollar has become the defacto currency. Yet, there's no electronic method to electronically transfer USD from one bank to another - which mean...



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Digital Currencies

Coinbase Sets Reference Price At $250, Well Below Last Private Market Trade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated direct listing of massive crypto-exchange Coinbase, Nasdaq has just announced the company's so-called Reference Price at $250.

On April 14, 2021, the Class A common stock of Coinbase Global, Inc. is expected to list on Nasdaq through a Direct Listing using the ticker “COIN”.

Because this security has not previously traded on any listing market and has no prior day's closing price, Regulation SHO Rule 201 will not apply to the security until its second day of trading on Nasdaq.

As a Direct Listing, COIN will be in a regulatory halt until ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Semiconductor Red Hot Performance Tests 20-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Will the “Red Hot” semiconductor index cool off or get even hotter due to the shortage of chips?

This chart looks at the Semiconductor Index on a monthly basis over the past quarter-century. No doubt the trend is up as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs since 2009.

Fibonacci extension levels were applied to the 1996 lows and the 2000 highs. Currently, the index is testing the 261% extension level, while at the top of the rising channel as momentum is at the highest level since the 2000 highs.

The rare chip shortage coul...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The Biden Yellen team have made their play, and it is not US dollar friendly.

Janet Yellen speech named "International Priorities — Remarks to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs" (here) can be summed to (via Luke Gromen) :


The US is accelerating a move away from "subjugating the US middle and working class to support the USD", to "subjugating the USD to support the US middle and working classes".



Well the above is true, but as we all know large US deficits and the trend of the US dollar are joined at the hip, and that trend is down '...

more from Chart School

Politics

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

 

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

Russian police officers beat people protesting the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Jan. 23, 2021 in Moscow. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Shelley Inglis, University of Dayton

Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, sick with a cough and ...



more from Politics

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



more from Promotions

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.