Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Friday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 4 – Adjusting Our Goals to Reflect Reality

Time to get real.  

We've had 3 Workshops so far on fixing our portfolios this week:

Now we move onto a very important topic that combines what we have learned and that is Adjusting our Goals.  I talked about this on Tuesday (Part 2) in the Boeing example for someone who bought Boeing at $350 and now it's $150 (today it's $123!) and we do not sit there and HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) that BA will go back to $350 because it's no longer realistic!  

As much as you may love a stock – you have to be realistic when there is damage done to it's financial position or outlook and you have to adjust your expectations accordingly – perhaps even considering abandoning the stock altoghether – especially in times like these when there are other fantastic stocks on sale and, even as I say this, I'm thinking that BA is not really a fantastic stock anymore – they simply have too many troubles to be excited about them – even at $123.

So today we'll take a look at our Earnings Portfolio, which started out with $100,000 on October 21st and was originally supposed to be just quick earnings plays but, the way things went, we ended up getting "stuck" in some good bargains (or we thought as the time) and we rolled them into longer-term bets.  So now it's a bit of a hybrid but that makes it interesting.  At the moment, we're at $132,078 so up 32% for the year but, as you'll see – NOT because our picks were any good – but because our HEDGES saved us!  

Notice we have more cash than the portfolio has value – that's because we follow our core Philosphy, which is:  "Be the House – NOT the Gambler", which means we always try to be sellers of premium, not buyers and that gives us a huge advantage in our trades while also dropping a lot of cash into…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 04-01-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:49 – Checking on the Markets
00:04:19 – Earnings Portfolio
00:05:46 – STP
00:10:37 – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
00:17:01 – Crude Oil WTI | Butterfly Portfolio
00:25:24 – AAPL
00:22:57 – TSLA
00:26:30 – Earnings Portfolio
00:37:20 – COVID-19 Update
01:17:33 – IMAX
01:22:16 – F
01:24:16 – DOW
01:28:50 – Sugar
01:31:07 – Margin Portfolios
01:51:19 – ET

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





$5,000 Thursday – Yesterday’s Oil Petroleum Plays Pay Off Fast!

Wheee, that was fun!  

For thos of you lucky enough to subscribe to yesterday morning's PSW Report we had almost all day to get in at our target entry on Oil Futures (/CL) at $20 per barrell and we got a nice ride to $22.50 this morning – for gains of $2,500 per contract on our two long contracts as Oil blasts 10% higher this morning.

Apparently China is buying up oil to fill up their Strategic Petroleum Reserves while it's so cheap and who could have seen that coming?  We could!  That's what happens when things get cheap – people buy them!  That's kind of the whole point to INVESTING – understanding the true VALUE of things and taking avantage of situations where the PRICE does not match the VALUE.  QED!

Still, we don't want to be greedy so we'll set a stop at $22.50 once /CL is over that line and at 0.615 on our Gasoline (/RB) Futures that we picked up as it came back to the 0.55 line into the close – also stupidly cheap and now up close to $3,000 per contract at 0.62.

That was a pick we discussed in our Live Trading Webinar and again in our Live Member Chat Room and playing the Futures is another excellent way you can make quick money to supplement your portfolio during a choppy market. 

8:30 Update:  6.65M Unemployment Claims this week!  That's about as bad as expected but the market still sold off on the news (which is why we set tight stops on our energy trades) and now we can get back in if we cross over those lines again or perhaps lower).  That's double last week's pace and we never like to see accelerating negatives like that.  

That should have us re-testing yesterday's lows in the Futures and now I like Nasdaq (/NQ) 7,400 for a long play with very tight stops below.  Setting tight stops at a good support like means you limit your losses but not your upside.  2,450 on the S&P (/ES) Futures is already blown but we can jump on those when they cross back over…
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A Perfect Storm For Emerging Markets

 

A Perfect Storm For Emerging Markets

Courtesy of John Rubino, Dollar Collapse 

Pretend for a minute that it’s 2019 and you’re Brazil. Or maybe Turkey, your choice.

You’ve got a lot of infrastructure to build if you want to keep your people happy, and to fund those projects you’ll need to borrow a lot of money.

That’s not a problem, because borrowing is easy. The whole world wants to give you US dollars at interest rates that are shockingly low compared to what prevails in your domestic financial markets. And, icing on the cake, your experts tell you that the dollar is likely to fall versus your country’s currency, making it even easier to pay off those loans. So you load up, borrowing as much as the market will bear and use the proceeds to buy higher-yielding local bonds (thus earning a nice spread) while starting on those roads and bridges. It feels like a win-win with minimal risk.

Then the coronavirus happens. The US dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand and your local currency plunges on a global “risk-off” spasm.

And articles like the following start showing up in the global press:

Coronavirus jolts vulnerable economies

(NHK Japan) – The Institute of International Finance says that its latest data shows money is rapidly “disappearing” from emerging markets. Since late January, cumulative outflows have surpassed levels observed at the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis.

In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, investors are quickly selling emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira to buy up the US dollar.

Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, noted in a recent statement that investors have removed 83 billion dollars’ worth of money from emerging markets, the largest capital outflow ever recorded.

perfect storm emerging markets

For these countries, the problems don’t end there; they have been hit hard by plummeting oil and


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Whipsaw Wednesday – Only Down 700 Points? Not a Big Deal!

Wimps!

The Dow drops 700 points (1,200 off yesterday's high) and everyone is back to Doom and Gloom.  We are in the MIDDLE of a Global Catastrophe that will play out over the next two to three months – it's the expectations of the participants that need adjusting – not the markets...

This is like standing in the rubble of the World Trade Center the afternoon of 9/11 and asking why the markets haven't gone back up yet – it's irrational behavior.

Yes, the Government APPROVED Trillions of Dollars in stimulus on Friday but it hasn't been deployed yet.  That doesn't seem to stop a parade of idiots from going on TV to say "Well, I guess the market is telling us the stimulus wasn't enough."  What morons!  Even worse is the uncritical response they get from the Hosts (who are usually empty suits anyway) and the Producers whispering in their ears.  Welcome to the 21st Century, where your idiotic opinion gets the same weighting as actual facts!  

As our Members know, there's always a song in my head and this morning it's:

"When I'm riding in my car

And a man comes on the radio

He's tellin' me more and more

About some useless information

Supposed to fire my imagination

I can't get no

Satisfaction" – Stones 

Coronavirus In humans: Money-Making Hype From Your FearWhy do we listen to these people?  When have they ever been right?  The same thing happened in 2008 when the people who had the money (the Top 1%) got their bailouts (TARP) and then went about telling the Bottom 99% that the World was going to end and they should dump all their stocks – the same stocks the Top…
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Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

 

Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

What happens when a Confidential Informant becomes President?

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

The Greek, from The Wire

IN THE EARLY 1980s it was decided—by whom, and for what ultimate purpose, we can’t say for sure—that Donald John Trump would build a casino complex in Atlantic City, New Jersey—probably the most mobbed-up municipality in the state. Dealing with the mafia might have dissuaded some developers from pursuing a Boardwalk Empire, but not Trump. He was uniquely suited to forge ahead.

Donald’s father, the Queens real estate developer Fred Trump, had worked closely with Genovese-associated and -owned construction entities since building the Shore Haven development in 1947, when Donald was still in diapers (the first time around). Fred was an early mob adopter, the underworld equivalent of an investor who bought shares of Coca-Cola stock in 1919. The timelines is important to remember here. Organized crime did not exist in any meaningful way in the United States until Prohibition. Born in 1905, Fred Trump was just two years younger than Meyer Lansky, the gangster who more or less invented money laundering. Thus, Donald Trump is second generation mobbed-up.

When Donald first ventured from Queens to the pizzazzier borough of Manhattan in the seventies, he entered into a joint business deal with “Big” Paul Castellano, head of the Gambino syndicate, and Anthony “Fat Tony” Salerno, of the Genovese family he knew well through his father and their mutual lawyer Roy Cohn. As part of this arrangement, Trump agreed to buy concrete from a company operated jointly by the two families—and pay a hefty premium for the privilege. Only then, with double mob approval, could he move forward with the Trump Tower and Trump Plaza projects. (Among Cohn’s other clients at the time was Rupert Murdoch, whom he introduced to Trump in the seventies; you would be hard pressed to find three more atrocious human beings).

Atlantic City is in South Jersey, closer to Philadelphia than New York, so to build “his” casino, Trump needed to play ball with the…
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Tuesday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 2 – Resetting Your Positions

10 skills to be a successful stock traderWhat is your plan?  

Come on, I'm not messing around here – WHAT is your trading plan?  Surely you have one if you are in charge of trading your portfolio, right?  If you were a General in the Army and you didn't have a plan – your troops would very likely be screwed.   If you were head coach of a football team and you didn't have a plan – your team would likely lose.  If you were the CEO of a company and you didn't have a plan – your company would likely do poorly.

These things are obvious and while you know it's a bad idea to perform surgery without a plan or mount a legal defense without a plan – somehow some of you business owners, doctors, lawyers and other professionals who trade the markets think it's OK to trade without a plan.  It's not – it's a very bad idea!  

On the right are some good trading guidelines but #1, as it should be, is HAVE A TRADING PLAN.  And it doesn't mean "Until it Fails" – it's even more important to have a plan to FIX your positions AFTER the first plan fails.  Very sadly, a lot of people take 3, 4 and 5 too seriously and hold tight and cross their fingers when faced with a major market sell-off but your plan CANNOT BE waiting until the market recovers.  That is not a plan – that is FEAR!

What we need to do, when the market drops, is have a very rational look at our positions – under the new circumstances – and decide if they are still worth keeping in our portfolio and, most importantly, whether or not we have realistic targets for them to recover.  

Let's take Boeing (BA) for example.  If you owned BA at $350 and watched it fall to $300 but then back to $350 so the next time it hit $300 you weren't worried but  then $275 and back to $300 and suddenly $250 but you thought surely it would bounce back from that and then below $200 the same week and now it's too late to do anything about it but cross your
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Three reasons it’s not 1929

 

Three reasons it’s not 1929

Courtesy of 

I could be wrong, but let me point out three things that I think about when I hear Great Depression analogies being made to the current crisis.

The first thing I think about is that the financial markets of the 1930’s were prehistoric. Yes, the Federal Reserve was in existence, but it was nowhere near as powerful and it hadn’t had any institutional memory (or history) to draw on. Its basic structure was patterned on the still-nascent central banks of various European countries thanks to the listening tour Senator Nelson Aldrich and others had made across the Continent. Fun fact: the US Senators’ delegation took one of their most critical meetings with German monetary authorities at the Adlon Hotel in Berlin, where Michael Jackson would infamously hang his baby off the balcony for paparazzi almost 100 years later.

Anyway, this time we have an experienced Fed and the Fed knows how powerful it can be. There was a rippling global financial crisis in the midst of the 1990’s bull market and the Fed shut it down in approximately ten seconds. The lessons of Bernanke’s actions during ’07-’09 have taken on a practically Talmudic quality within the institution, from what I’m told. And the Fed has already jumped in with both feet – as Wells Fargo strategist Christopher Harvey put it in Barron’s this weekend, “The Fed took the kitchen sink and threw it at the market. Then it took another kitchen sink and threw it at the market.”

The second thing I would point out is that the cause of the Crash of 1929 is, to this day, still unknown. Yeah, you can chalk it up to valuations and excesses, but that’s a copout. The reality is that there is nothing special that had happened in the days and weeks leading up to the Great Crash, it just sort of got rolling and then kept going – feeding on itself as sentiment turned and the desire to sell infected everyone. But there was no spark. I wrote 


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Monday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 1 – Damage Assessment

The virus rages on.

US infections have jumped from 85,996 on Friday, when we had just passed China, to 143,055 as of 6:11 this morning and that's up 66% in two days.  Globally, there are 735,650 infections with 34,686 deaths and 154,673 recoveries so, to date, 18.3% of the outcomes are – DEATH!!!  No, I don't think it's funny – I want to emphasize that so people, HOPEFULLY, will stop risking their lives to go on a beer run or whatever other silly thing you do that you don't have to do – this is serious people and it remains serious.

On the other hand, as I have pointed out before, 7,708 people die every day in America from all sorts of things but mainly cancer or heart conditions so 2,500 dead (so far) in the US is just another manic Monday morning as far as it's effect on the economy.  What matters is how soon we can get things under control as they are currently still clearly OUT of control as our hospitals are being overwhelmed (leading to more deaths) and supplies are running short.

Trump is right, this is like a war but it's a war we are clearly losing despite Trump telling us:

  • Jan 22nd - “We have it totally under control. … It’s going to be just fine
  • Jan 30th – "We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.” 
  • Feb 24th – "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock market starting to look very good to me."
  • Feb 26th - “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."
  • Feb 28th - “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
  • March 2nd - "We had a great meeting today with a lot of the great companies


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The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the onset of the second world war took many people by surprise, the outbreak of the coronavirus in December 2019 was a crisis foretold. Infectious disease specialists have been raising the alarm about the accelerated pace of outbreaks for decades. Dengue, Ebola, SARS, H1N1, and Zika are just the tip of the iceberg. Since 1980, more than 12,000 documented outbreaks have infected and killed tens of millions of people around the world, many of them the poorest of the poor. In 2018, the World Health Organisation (WHO) detected outbreaks of six of its eight “priority diseases” for the very first time.

No one can say we weren’t warned.

Even as we attend to the countless emergencies generated by COVID-19, we need to think deeply about why the international community was so unprepared for an outbreak that was so inevitable. This is hardly the first time we’ve faced global catastrophes.

The second world war reflected the catastrophic failure of leaders to learn the lessons of the 1914-1918 war. The creation of the United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions in the late 1940s and early 1950s provided some grounds for optimism, but these were overshadowed by the Cold War. Moreover, the Reagan and Thatcher revolutions of the 1980s rolled back the capacity of governments to address inequality through taxation and redistribution and governments’ ability to deliver health and essential services.

The capacity of international institutions to regulate globalisation was undermined precisely at a time when they were most needed. The 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were a period of rapidly rising cross-border movements of trade, finance and people. The accelerated flow of goods, services and skills is one of the principal reasons for the most rapid reduction of global poverty in history. Since the late 1990s,…
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Zero Hedge

Fed Unveils New Bailout Program, Will Provide Up To $2.3 Trillion In Loans To "Support Economy"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In our report from last night that JPM has halted all non-government guaranteed small business loans on what we surmised was fears of a default tsunami set to hit America's companies, we asked "just how bad is it going to get" and implicitly, if not commercial banks, then who will fund America's "main street" businesses?

We got the answer this morning when ...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 04-08-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:34 - Checking on the Markets
00:04:32 - Current News
00:31:34 - LEVI
00:35:08 - AMZN
00:39:26 - Mark Mahaney's Stock Coverage
00:43:00 - Public Transportation & Disinfecting
00:48:08 - Petroleum Status Report & OPEC
01:00:24 - COVID-19 Update | WYNN
01:16:00 - Portfolio Projection: Income Portfolio
01:17:23 - FUTURES
01:18:49 - Earnings Portfolio
01:19:27 - STP | LTP
01:22:52 - S&P 500
01:30:05 - AAPL
01:34:15 - VIX
01:36:00 - M
01:42:56 - VIAC
01:47:02 - XOM
01:50:29 - LB
01:52:44 - IRBT
01:57:48 - Crude Oil WTI
02...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprisin...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus symptoms, causes, prevention and cure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

COVID-19 models continue to change for the better

April 9, 2020 Update: More than 1.5 million people around the world have been infected by the novel coronavirus, and nearly 90,000 have died. In the U.S., the death toll surpassed 14,000 on Wednesday. Tuesday alone saw a record 1,858 deaths. So far, approximately 425,000 people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19.

Although researchers say the peak hasn’t been reached yet, the model in use by the White House and many other agencies was updated on Wednesday. The number of projected deaths from the virus in the U.S. declined to 60,415 by August, compared...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.