Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

TGIF – On Again, Off Again Trade Deal Weighs on the Market

There is no trade deal

That's why the Asian markets fell 1.5% this morning although, this morning, a lot of people are acting like we're making progress so the Futures are creeping up again – and that's fine with us as we'd LOVE to have an opportunity to short them for the 3rd day in a row.  We made $600 per contract from Wednesday Morning's Trade Idea and $1,200 per contract on Thursday Morning's Trade Idea (it only costs $3/day for you to get these ideas) and this morning we're HOPING to re-test 25,600 on the Dow (/YM) Futures but I think we're more likely to fail or, at best, drift into the holiday weekend.

If you cut through all the "he said, Xi said" noise of the trade rumors, the FACT of the matter is Lighthizer and Mnuchin just spent a week in China and accomplished nothing and now they are talking about extenting the March 1st deadline by at least 60 days, which is a major embarrasment for Trump, who set the arbitrary deadline and forced the problem in the first place.  We haven't even BEGUN to have trade talks with Europe or Japan and Trump has threatened more tariffs on each of them – even though we're not even sending a negotiating team.

This is very much in-line with my premise, which we discussed last week – that Trump DOESN'T want a trade deal – he just wants the tariff money and as long as his base remains too dumb to understand that THEY are the ones paying these tariffs – not China, not Mexico, not Europe or Japan – then Trump can use the tariffs to help "balance" his budget.  I put "balance" in quotes because, when you are running a $1.2Tn annual deficit (yes, it's up 20% since last time I looked) – giving up a projected $200Bn in tariffs would raise your deficit another 20% and you would, officially, be the WORST PRESIDENT EVER!

As noted by Bloomberg: "Trump appears to have over-estimated his own power in these talks. There is a reason the original package of U.S. demands to China was dubbed the “surrender-or-die” list by experts. Trump’s trade hawks believe nothing short of a Chinese
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 02-13-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:01:44 Checking on the Markets
00:08:59 Indexes Charts
00:12:17 Metals Charts
00:12:38 Energy Charts
00:15:49 GLD
00:25:35 Levels Charts 2/12/2019
00:29:49 WMT
00:36:03 Delinquency for credit cards
00:38:59 Delinquency for auto loans
00:46:10 Dollar
01:11:24 Trade Ideas
01:15:21 CMG
01:21:02 WHR
01:27:38 TEVA
01:33:12 AR
01:38:16 Tipranks
01:50:07 GOLD
01:55:51 CHK
01:58:48 ECA
02:00:12 CHK
02:03:02 Natural Gas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





$600 Thursday – Our Dow Futures Shorts Pay Off Perfectly

That was easy!  

In yesterday morning's PSW Report I said:

25,600 would be a great place to short the Dow Futures (/YM) if it fails, with tight stops above but ONLY ENTER AS IT CROSSES BELOW!  At $5 per point, per contract, if you give it 20 points to the stop (25,620, you risk $100 but the Dow is up 600 points off Monday's lows and up 3,600 points since Christmas so it's very likely we get a 20% retrace of 600 in the short run and that's 120 points for $600 per contract reward and, if we get lucky, we retrace the larger rally by 720 points for a $3,600 gain – so I think it's worth a toss – especially in light of these frightening charts

Well, that's exactly what happened first thing in the morning for a nice, quick gain and we're right back there this morning for another chance to go short – but keep those stops in place!  If they are going to keep giving us the set-up, we're not too proud to keep making money off it, right?  Remember:  I can only tell you what's likely to happen and how to profit from it – the rest is up to you!

If you would like to subscribe to the PSW Report so you can have money-making ideas like this delivered to you every day, before the market opens – just CLICK HERE.

Yesterday we placed tight stops at the 25,480 line but today is the 2nd attempt at a fail and we think the indexes will succeed… at failing…  There's no way Retail Sales held up during a month-long Government Shutdown and we get that report this morning while leading Economorons haven't changed their estimates since the last time we got a report – way back in November (delayed due to the Government Shutdown).  

8:30 Update:  Oops, DISASTER!  Retail Sales are down 1.2% for the month and, if it wasn't for a nice gain in Auto Sales, it would have been DOOM.  Check out that trend – not pretty…   Not only
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History’s 10 Most Culturally Significant Dick Pic Scandals

Via  Zero Hedge

Written by Matt Taibbi, RollingStone.com

From Jeff Bezos to Anthony Weiner to Brett Favre, a look back at below-the-belt selfies that shook culture…

The AMI-Jeff Bezos scandal is set up to dominate headlines for a while. Who knows where it will lead? In the third world, an oligarch-president proxy war playing out in public like this usually presages a coup.

If this were Thailand or Uruguay, bookies would already have odds on a Bezos-Mark-Zuckerberg-Sundar-Pichai junta being in power by May.

This scandal will at least drag us through unprecedented legal and ethical conundrums. Can the president use the surveillance powers of the state to go after political enemies? Can a billionaire intelligence contractor and administrator of one of earth’s largest private data collections – including the so-called “Secret Region” cloud – fight back using his own surveillance trove through a newspaper he owns?

This story could blur the lines between public and private power to the point of meaninglessness. America could very well find its fate decided by a series of pre-dawn phone calls, after which we’d wake up to find Trump flying to Switzerland, Amazon lieutenants in the Joint Chiefs office and the presidency replaced by an executive board.

At the center of all of this: a dick pic.

Nothing could be more American than the fate of our democracy now hanging (!) on what Enquirer editor Dylan Howard euphemistically describes as a “below-the-belt selfie.”

Seemingly since the birth of the Internet, celebrity jackasses have felt the urge to take pics of their naughty bits and send them, often unsolicited, on the electronic superhighway. One study suggests as many as four in 10 young women have received an unsolicited nude photo from a man.

The dick-pic scandal really became a thing between 2010 and 2011, with the (listed below) Brett Favre and Anthony Weiner stories. Since then, it’s become so common for men to put their junk online that it really only makes headlines if it’s accidental, political or a slow news day. From Greg Oden to Tyrann Mathieu to Jude Law to countless others, there are so many famous penii online that the headlines have become more interesting than the stories (i.e. “Canada’s Dick Pic…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – 200 DMA Edition

Which way?  Who knows?

It's all up to Trump, who may tweet anything at any time about China, the Shutdown, OPEC, Comey…  There's no way to tell what the President will do because what he does seems totally random and 80% of what he says is a lie and the other 20% are pronouns – so you can't go by what he says or what he does and you can only react to what he tweets – that's crazy!  

The markets rocketed higher yesteday as we finally broke through our 200-day moving averages, which are currently Dow 25,015 (now 25,502), S&P 2,743 (now 2,752), Nasdaq 100 7,047 (now 7,050), NYSE 12,500 (now 12,500) and Russell 1,587 (now 1,543) so we need confirmation from the Nasdaq and the NYSE today and, of course, the Russell has some work to do to catch up.

Yesterday we had Congress telling us they had a funding deal and Trump saying he might approve it – even though it only gives him enough money to build a picket fence – as long as he paints it himself.  We also had all the people on the US side saying China Trade Talks were going great but then Trump said he's not planning on meeting with Xi in March – so how great can it really be if the March deadline is on the 10th?  Trump also said he might extend the deadline – again, who knows?  

Today we have 3 Fed speakers:  Bostic, Mester and Harker speaking at 7:15 (Europe), 8:50 and noon respectively and they are all going to echo Powell's comments on how the economy is great but nowhere near great enough to raise rates or they may crash the markets another 20% because, you know, great markets are fragile – like great egg shells…

25,600 would be a great place to short the Dow Futures (/YM) if it fails, with tight stops above but ONLY ENTER AS IT CROSSES BELOW!  At $5 per point, per contract, if you give it 20 points to the stop (25,620, you risk $100 but the Dow is up 600 points off Monday's lows and up 3,600 points since Christmas so it's very likely we get a 20% retrace of 500 in the short run and that's 120 points for $600 per contract reward and, if
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Drinkers prefer Big Beer keeps its hands off their local craft brews

 

Drinkers prefer Big Beer keeps its hands off their local craft brews

Courtesy of Jarrett Hart, University of California, Davis

Craft beer’s popularity has exploded in the U.S. in recent decades, leading to soaring production and the creation of thousands of new breweries.

Much of that growth has come at the expense of traditional brewing giants like Anheuser-Busch InBev and MillerCoors.

So, naturally, these macro brewers have been trying to get a piece of the action by buying up their craft counterparts. Examples include AB InBev’s 2011 purchase of Goose Island Brewery and Tokyo-based Sapporo’s 2017 acquisition of Anchor Brewing – America’s oldest craft brewery.

But since a major appeal of craft beer – and a drinker’s willingness to pay a premium for a pint – is its localness and non-bigness, does being what I dub “crafty” beer owned by Big Beer spoil the brew?

That’s a question I ask in the Ph.D. dissertation I am writing for a degree in agricultural and resource economics. I wanted to know whether drinkers are willing to pay more for beer knowing that it isn’t actually independently and locally produced.

In my most recent research, I directly tapped consumers for answers by conducted a “choice experiment” at a bar specializing in craft beer.

Tokyo-based Sapporo acquired Anchor Brewing in 2017. Wikimedia Commons/WolfmanSF, CC BY

Setting the scene

The scene of my experiment was a bar, University of Beer, in the college town of Davis, California, where I study. Over the course of more than a month, I recruited 301 patrons of the bar for my experiment.

Participants began the experiment by selecting the beer they would most like to order from the venue’s rotating list of 60 brews on tap. Then I presented them with a list of 10 randomly selected beers from the menu.

For each, I asked participants what they’d be willing to pay for the random beer so that they wouldn’t care whether they received it or their original selection – that is, whatever price would make them happy with either choice.

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Terrific Tuesday – Shutdown II Averted (through September)

Image result for trump baby wall55 Miles, $1.4Bn.

If that's what it costs to keep the Toddler-in-Chief from throwing another tantrum, Nancy Pelosi says she's willing to pay it as a bi-partisan group of Senators and Congresspeople have finally hashed out the details of a funding bill that will keep our Government open for 6 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS!  Imagine being able to go all the way until September before our next shutdown crisis – what an accomplishment!  

Well, the markets seem to think so as the Dow popped 200 points in pre-market trading, mostly last night, when news of the deal spread.  Unfortunately, Trump will likely "prove" that the 55 miles of new wall is effective – simply because there are still 1,500 miles with no wall people can go through, so they simply won't try where the wall is.  Will Trump ever get a greenlight to fund the rest of the 1,500 miles at $25.5M per mile ($38Bn)?  That does seem like madness but we've now taken the first tiny step towards it.

Despite all the progress we're making in keeping out the tired, the poor and the huddled masses yearning to breathe free, Small Business Optimism contines to decline, especially in Future Expectations, which are down 10% since the last reading.  That seems to be the general trend at the moment – people are content with the current conditions but they are worried that the country is going to Hell in a handbasket…

Europe is literally going to Hell in a handbasket and, when they get there, they'll meet China, who have already slowed down significantly in Q4 and Q1 is shaping up to be worse and it isn't all about trade, though that's a factor.  GM sold 25% less cars in Q4 in China than a year ago but they are not alone as the entire auto industry, including Chinese Auto Makers, sold 20% less cars in Q4 as the Government pulled back on incentives.  

Nonetheless, Chinese customers still bought $52Bn worth of iPhones in Q4, about 15% of Apple's total sales.  China is also very important to SBUX, UTX (60% of their Otis Elevator sales) and TIF, who saw a 9% increase in sales in China…
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These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

Even if you are somewhat decent at calling bottoms, you would still lose in the long run. ~ By Nick Maggiulli

We may now understand the magic, but only the magician could have created the trick. ~ By John Rekenthaler 

The law most likely to govern here is the Law of Unintended Consequences. ~ By Jason Zweig

The illiquidity premium was assumed to be a foregone conclusion by any institutional investors. It’s time to reassess this idea. ~ By Ben Carlson

If you have to forecast interest rates, do it in the shower where nobody can hear you. ~ By Jim Grant

What’s fascinating about investor amnesia is that it not only causes long-term investors to forget their gains, but that it also has them forget about the pain they endured to receive them. ~ By Douglas Boneparth

The more you pay attention the more behavioral risk you create for yourself. ~ By Cullen Roche

The same mindset that allows visionaries to see things normal people can’t blinds them to realities normal people understand. ~ By Morgan Housel

Weaker intuition and harder story-telling. ~ By Cliff Asness

Don’t catch yourself trick-or-treating to the people you love. ~ By Deion Sanders

Podcasts

You hate yourself for hating yourself. With Brian Koppelman and Steven Pressfield

They struggle with credibility. With J.J. Reddick and David Solomon

I don’t like guys that talk shit and don’t play in games. With Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo 

Books

What the advertiser needs to know is not what is right about the product but what is wrong about the buyer. ~ By Neil Postman





Monday Market Momentum – Uptrend Continues with Trade Talk Hopes

Image result for lighthizer china cartoonSteve Mnuchin to the rescue?

Yes, I know it sounds ridiculous but that's why the market is up half a point this morning as our Treasury Secretary lands in Beijing this morning and maybe I'd be more optimistic if he wansn't accompanied by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who lost the battle to keep China out of the WTO in 1997 and is now being given his chance at revenge by suggesting the US pursue WTO action against China and threatens to leave the WTO if China is not sanctioned – ie. bullying.

Politico describes Lightizer as "a decades-long skeptic of Beijing."  He has accused China of unfair trade practices and believes that China needs to make "substantive and structural changes to its trade policies, as opposed to only minor changes it has offered in the past".  He wrote: "The icon of modern conservatism, Ronald Reagan, imposed quotas on imported steel, protected Harley-Davidson from Japanese competition, restrained import of semiconductors and automobiles, and took myriad similar steps to keep American industry strong.  How does allowing China to constantly rig trade in its favor advance the core conservative goal of making markets more efficient?  Markets do not run better when manufacturing shifts to China largely because of the actions of its government."

Image result for china trade cartoonNow, there's nothing wrong with sending a tough negotiator to China but Lighthizer is more of an anti-China negotiator but even that may have a place if you have a highly skilled person keeping him in line but there's no indication that's the case with Mnuchin and, even if it were, it is complete folly for the markets to believe that this duo is going to be able to quickly resolve the many issues that the US and China are very far apart on in trade.

And when I say the US, unfortunately, I mean President Trump because the US and China were very much together for the past decade as both countries prospered and the trade deficit was widely considered to be "just a number" and China may have "stolen" factory jobs but no more so than Detroit stole them from New York in the early 20th Century.  Jobs move…
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Amazon HQ2: Texas experience shows why New Yorkers should be skeptical

 

Amazon HQ2: Texas experience shows why New Yorkers should be skeptical

File 20190206 174867 14fc9ox.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Amazon’s plan to build a new headquarters in Long Island City faces mounting resistance. AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews

Courtesy of Nathan Jensen, University of Texas at Austin and Calvin Thrall, University of Texas at Austin

New York offered Amazon close to US$3 billion to build a “second” headquarters in Long Island City on the promise of 25,000 jobs.

Since the deal was joyfully announced in November, however, many local residents and some politicians in the area have been questioning whether it’s worth it, both in terms of the price tag and the impact on housing and traffic congestion. There’s now a real possibility that the deal could be blocked, and Amazon itself is reportedly reconsidering the move.

The research supports those who question the wisdom of cities and states incentivizing economic development. Studies suggest the jobs and economic gains are usually not worth the tax breaks since the majority of companies would have come even without incentives.

And that’s when the companies try to live up to the promises they made. They don’t always do so, with the latest example being Foxconn’s announcement that it is reconsidering plans to build a factory in Wisconsin – less than a year after agreeing to create up to 13,000 high-tech jobs in exchange for more than $4.5 billion in incentives.

But how often do companies that agree to build factories and create jobs in exchange for economic incentives back away from their promises? And when they do, do taxpayers ever learn about it?

To shine light on these questions, we conducted a study of a Texas economic development program. Taxpayers in any American city considering luring a company with cash should take heed.

Something to hide?

The Texas Enterprise Fund, which started in 2003, allows the state to offer cash grants to companies in exchange for promises of investments and job creation. As of Jan. 1, the program had provided over $600 million in cash incentives to companies vowing to create over 94,000 direct jobs in Texas.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Giant Topping Pattern Could Be Forming, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The first fact of the day; The long-term trend for tech remains up and the decline into the lows on Christmas Eve DID NOT break this trend!

This chart looks at NDX 100 ETF (QQQ) on a weekly basis over the past 14-years. For the past decade, since the lows in late 2009, QQQ has remained inside of rising channel (1). As you can see the decline into the end of the year lows, did nothing more than test support, which held and a strong rally has followed!

Over the past few months, QQQ could be forming a “Head & Shoulders&...



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Zero Hedge

Yesterday's Perfect Recession Warning May Be Failing You

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.  Given the fact that an inversion of the 2s/10s Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession over the last forty years, it is no wonder that the topic grows in stature as the difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield approaches zero. Unf...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For February 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE: AN) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $1.15 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE: USM) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.13 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion.
  • Magna International Inc. ...


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Phil's Favorites

The Science Behind the $13 Billion Medical Cannabis Industry

 

The Science Behind the $13 Billion Medical Cannabis Industry

By , Visual Capitalist 

 

The Science Behind the Medical Cannabis Industry

There’s nothing quite like cannabis in the plant kingdom. Beneath its humble surface, over 750 unique compounds exist within – all of which have helped propel the cannabis industry into the multi-billion dollar market it is today.

Today’s infographic from ...



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ValueWalk

What A Difference A Year Doesn't Make

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In general, the markets seemed to be shaping up to be similar to what they looked like a year ago performance-wise. January was a month of strong returns, and now that we’re into February, we’re suddenly seeing a steep pullback. It remains to be seen whether the rest of the month will be as tumultuous as last February was.

12019 / Pixabay

However, a bit of good news is that even though the market performance is looking a lot like it did last year, the setup is quite a bit different, according to one firm. As a ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>