Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Thank Tech it’s Friday – Apple and Company Boost the Markets

$60 Billion!  

Apple (AAPL) had $59.69Bn in revenues last quarter and that's up 10.9% while the rest of the economy was down 33% and the market logic is that one company making money trumps an entire economy losing money.  Of course it's ridiculous but what can you do?  

The chart on the right illustrates just how bad our Q2 GDP was compared to… well, history!  This one-quarter drop in GDP was worse than ENTIRE RECESSIONS COMBINED yet the market is trading like we are going to just dust ourselves off and get right back into the race.  Of course Apple did well – they sell exactly the kind of crap that people forced to sit on their couch for 3 months are going to buy.  Amazon and other tech companies did well too because they cater to the shut-in crowds – you can't judge the economy or the market by what was bound to be the strongest sector.

Apple was our Stock of the Year 3 times this decade and, just two weeks ago, on July 17th, we did our Portfolio Reviews and we made aggressive adjustments to our AAPL position in the Butterfly Portfolio:

AAPL – We got more conservative but AAPL did not.  The Aug $330s are $60 and they can be rolled to the Oct $350s at $50 so we're paying $10,000 for $20,000 more strike.  Since our $200/260 spread is now net $144,000 out of a potential $180,000, it has $36,000 more to gain to cover the short calls.  Still, we can do much better than that in two years so we'll cash that spread ($144,000) and move to 40 of the June 2022 $300 ($117)/400 ($65) bull call spreads at $52 ($208,000) so we're spending $64,000 to move from a spred with $36,000 potential to one with $192,000 potential – easily covering the short calls but also well-covered by them. 

AAPL Short Call 2020 18-SEP 350.00 CALL [AAPL @ $384.76 


continue reading





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 07-29-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!

 

Major Topics:

00:00:17 – Value in Investing
00:05:17 – LB
00:08:35 – HBI
00:09:47 – TSLA
00:11:23 – STP
00:15:33 – FB | AMZN
00:21:02 – GOOGL
00:29:57 – ALK
00:32:24 – AAL | DAL
00:38:50 – IMAX
00:45:35 – STP
00:47:37 – CMG
00:53:30 – Risk Management
00:57:06 – The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real with Global GDP!
01:00:31 – FOMC
01:08:18 – Barrick Gold
01:17:45 – WPM
01:18:02 – RCL
01:18:23 – CCL | DIS
01:19:13 – Election 2020 & COVID-19 Update
01:30:49 – CLF
01:32:08 – Future is Now Portfolio
01:33:34 – 12 Countries Where You Can Buy a Passport
01:39:43 – Futures: Indices
01:40:17 – Energy Charts
01:40:28 – Metals Charts
01:41:12 – GDPNow

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here





GDPhursday – Fed Boost Doesn’t Last 24 Hours

Wheeee, that was easy money!  

In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, we were watching the Fed report live and we didn't see what people were being so bullish about so I made a call to short the Russell (/RTY) and the S&P 500 (/ES) Futures, which I reiterated in our Live Member Chat Room:

"In the Webinar we decided to short /ES at 3,250 and /RTY at 1,500.  GDP tomorrow is likely to be ugly."

As you can see, we've already gained over $1,000 per contract and we haven't even had the GDP Report yet (8:30) and that is expected to show a horrific 30+% drop in US economic activity for the 2nd Quarter.  It's POSSIBLE we have an upside surprise – thanks to $5Tn of stimulus spending during Q2 but, either way, we're in the middle of an economic disaster with not end in near sight.  

Image

Germany's GDP was down 10.1% this morning and that is twice as bad as it was in 2009, the second-worst on record (only records since 1970) but Germany, unlike the US, had a plan to fight the virus and has things more or less under control with 208,892 – about as many cases total as the US has deaths (150,716 so far).  Germany has just 9,137 deaths to date, both about 5% of the US's totals although they have 25% as many people (84M).  

Trump's bashing of Angela Merkel might help her keep a grip on ...Merkel's Germany did everything the Trump Administration did not and the differences are astounding.  Rather than spend Trillions of Dollars propping up the economy, they actually protected their people from getting the virus in the first place and are already on the road to recovery while the US virus count and death count are spinning out of control.

8:30 Update:  Officially we're down 33% DESPITE the $5,000,000,000,000 boost by the Fed and Congress (see yesterday's Report for breakdowns) so I'm very glad we put on those extra hedges as things could get pretty ugly although it's really right in-line…
continue reading





Friends and enemies. The military. And what might a “good billionaire” do?

 

Best-selling author and scientist David Brin suggests how billionaires could do some good with their money. Now's the time.

How can we win the 8th phase of America’s 250 year civil war? If you haven't already, read the first, second and final chapters of David's book, Polemical Judo at Contrary Brin Blog, and excerpts from chapter 5, "The War on All Fact People" and chapter 10, "We are Different, Different is Difficult, for some ideas. 

 

Friends and enemies. The military. And what might a "good billionaire" do?

Two powerful groups could make a difference in this crisis… one of them by staying aloof and professional but making their loyalty clear. The other can take decisive and bold action individually, even out of whim!

I've said for years the greater part of the U.S. Military Officer Corps is inherently on our side, for many reasons, though they desperately hope they'll never be asked to step in explicitly, as Praetorian protectors of the Republic vs. internal enemies.  I'll get to that, in a minute.

But first, what could a billionaire, or sub-billionaire, who is loyal to Western Civilization, do that could be decisive at this critical time?

There are many rich folks who feel loyalty to this Great Experiment that gave them everything. They're grateful especially for vast numbers of nerdy creative types who made all their successes and toys and interests possible.  For every mafiosi, KGB-oligarch, gambling lord or inheritance brat, there is some tech-mogul who does not want this unique experiment to dissolve into just another boring feudalism — especially given feudalism's dismal record of bad governance. And so, many of these folks are donating large sums to PACs aimed at slashing the puppet strings used by Putin, MBS and others to revive treason and confederacy.

But there are better ways a good zillionaire could spend this money. Some of them, like Nicolas Berggruen, Bill Gates and Mark Cuban seek their own paths to enhance democracy… and I offer over a dozen


continue reading





Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Will the Fed save us (again?).

Looking at the chart on the right, clearly we are in need of saving.  Those numbers are pretty up-to-date and we're starting to re-close in certain places and several airlines and auto makers have announce massive job cuts that are not going to make things better.  At least this chart will LOOK better as people will no longer be getting the benefits, which run out soon – so they will no longer be counted on this chart – having moved over to the "homeless" chart or the "impoverished" chart.  

30M unemployed is 1/10 of our fellow Americans and you know how many more businesses are struggling in your neighborhood.  Is it another 1/10th?  Will 20% of our people be out of work soon?  What happens to the economy if 20% less people are getting paychecks?  Clearly the Government, even if the Liberals take charge, will need 20% more money to prop it up and we've already spent $6.7Tn in the past 4 months just to get to this mess!

Obviously the money was mainly misdirected and wasted but is that going to change when we give Jared another $500Bn of untraceable funds to play with?  What happened to the first $500Bn?  Oh yeah, untraceable…  Well there was another $500Bn that the Treasury had and that fund was traceable but, at last count, no one was getting that money either.  

Notice how the Federal Reserve Actions are not being counted as part of our debt and that's a good thing as we've added $2.5Tn in new debt already this year and Congress is voting on another $1-3Tn to get us through Q3 but even $6Tn is barely 1/3 of our GDP and we've certainly taken a 30% hit to the economy this year – we'll find out more in tomorrow's GDP report.

The Fed still has plenty of available firepower and they are currently using it to buy assets, including stocks, in order to prop up the markets.  They've spent their entire allocation of asset money but almost none on improving liquidity or actually lending money to people who need it while the Trump Administration has spent every single penny they got their hands on…
continue reading





Fire & Fawning

 

Fire & Fawning

Courtesy of Scott Galloway at No Mercy/No Malice, @profgalloway 

(originally published July 24, 20)

The CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google are scheduled to testify in front of the US House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee. [On Wednesday.] Some thoughts…

Big tech has won before the hearing starts. Agreeing to let all four testify concurrently inhibits the committee’s ability to go deep on any one issue, and will leave the American public with a sentiment instead of a viewpoint on big tech, much less any conclusions (such as, that the Obama DOJ was asleep at the switch, and Instagram and Whatsapp should be divested). The Covid-inspired remote format dramatically lessens the likelihood of an unscripted moment that reveals something the American public didn’t previously know. Fabric softener for tough questioning is the deep pockets that keep members in power.


 

When the show starts, Zuck will be the target of the most ire, as he’s an oligarch minus the charm. Bezos, on the other hand, will receive the least ire, as his command of soft power is second only to China. Being on these committees must be just awesome, as every member clings to their office as if they were Puerto Rican rescue dogs clinging to lamb lung fillet. (I see this with my dog Gangster. It’s a moment that gives you pause … to see how much a living thing can love something else.)

Bezos


continue reading





Momentum Monday – Big Week for Technology Company Earnings

 

Momentum Monday – Big Week for Technology Company Earnings

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Every Monday I share the video Ivanhoff and I put together on Sundays to get us ready for the week. Here is this week’s tour.

As I mentioned last week, I remain constructive based on the rotation (money staying in the market).

We did not talk about Gold, Silver, Bitcoin or Ethereum, but they define momentum right now. We do talk about the weakness in the dollar and how that might continue to help emerging markets.

My friend John Street Capital did a great job summarizing the macro backdrop and gave a good take on Bitcoin and gold last month that is quickly playing out right now. Have a read.

I am the old man rooting for the American economy and for every town to be Coronado, but that is a fantasy at the moment. The great ‘re-opening’ seems farther off than ever but the stock market is doing a great job confusing the people trying to match the two. The greatest ‘wall of worry‘ is being climbed while the scariest list of page 10 news headed to page 1 piles up. Best not watch the news if you want to stay invested.

Have a great week.

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here.

 





Trillion Dollar Tuesday – New Stimulus Package Not Enough to Keep the Market Afloat

ONE TRILLION DOLLARS | Dr evil, Austin powers, Dumb criminals$1,000,000,000,000.  

That's enough money to give all 1,000 Billionaire in the World another Billion Dollars.  Oh wait, we did that already.  Well it's enough money to give one Million Millionaires another Million Dollars.  What?  We did that already too.  Well it's enough money to buy 3,000 masks for every man, woman and child in the country so we wouldn't need to spend Trillions of Dollar propping up the economy or it's enough money to continue giving $600 unemployment bonuses to 30M people for an entire year.

ROFL!!!  Who are we kidding, this is America, we're going to give it to the rich people again!  

Bob CratchitThe funny thing is the rich people are pissed that they are ONLY getting $1Tn this quarter (they got $6.7Tn last quarter) so the Futures are tanking and we're losing all of Meaningless Monday's gains.  The biggest stimulus issue will hit us on Friday, it's the end of the $600 weekly unemployment bonus and the Democrats in the House wanted to extend it through Christmas while the Scrooges in the Senate said not only do they want it dropped to $200 now but they want all unemployment capped at 70% of wages AFTER it's combined with any State Benefits people are receiving.

The Republicans also want to cut dependent checks down to $500 while the Democrats want to increase them to $1,200 for up to 3 children, so people with more than 7 children come out ahead on the Republican plan!   Democrats also want to spend $430Bn to make our schools safe enough to attend and providing $50Bn for child-care facilities to keep our toddlers safe while the Republicans think $70Bn is plenty and the kids can take their chances with the rest of us.

Drop Dead": How Trump Inspired the New York Daily News to Revive ...Democrats have also propose $1Tn in aid to local Governments while the GOP just says no to that and again, they want the cities and states to fight the virus with the same budgets they had when there was
continue reading





Monday Morning Markets – More Stimulus as We Wait for the Fed

Kentucky can't escape Louise Linton's Instagram clutches | Jeffrey ...More free money!!!

The Senate Republicans are expected to vote on the CARES Act 2 (it's a 5-act play) and this will be the beginning of two weeks of negotiations with the House, who already voted on a much more extensive measure to prop up the economy.  The $600 weekly unemployment benefit will expire on Friday and most economists predict a complete disaster if that's not extended to 30M unemployed Americans.   "We're not going to pay people more money to stay at home than work," US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday on CNBC using the poor grammer of a person who's never worked a day in his life and has sold his soul to Satan.

Steve Mnuchin | Our America 2Mnuchin (who's father was a general partner at Goldman Sachs and spit out the silver spoon he was born with - demanding a platinum spoon on his way to Yale and a job with, you guessed it, Goldman Sach after which he took part in the total destruction of Sears, where they looted the pension and cost millions of workers their jobs while getting rich of the real estate they sold out from under the investors' noses) says 70% of minimum wage should be the cap for those lazy bastards who aren't risking their lives to go back to their closed businesses.  

Really people, just tell Daddy you need another job and stop bothering the Government, who you've paid unemployment insurance to for your entire life, to actually pay you when you are unemployed!  What do you think this is – Europe?  At least we're all getting a second $1,200 stimulus check so the rents will probably be paid in August.  It remains to be seen if the moratorium on evictions is extended.  If not, expect total chaos in the housing markets and the courts since 1/3 of Americans have not paid their rents in the past few months.   

While the House plan included $1Tn in aid to state and local Governments, the Senate plan has none.   With so many areas shut down, tax revenues have gone down sharply and this funding was meant to help deal with that shortfall so expect this to
continue reading





Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less cases.

So let’s review the states that have recently had the biggest numbers in order of total population. All charts are from the COVID Tracking Project.

California

California – New tests were a bit lower this week, but apprently still in an uptrend. New cases hit a record of 12,807 on Wednesday, and came off a bit, to 12,040 on Thursday,July 23.

Current hospitalizations are still hitting new highs every day, rising to 8820 on Thursday.

New deaths hit a new record of 157 on Thursday, a breakout after consolidating near the highs since July 8.  So in California we still see an uptrend in all key data.

Case numbers first broke out and accelerated into the current trend on June 19. Hospitalizations broke out on June 23. Deaths broke the old highs on July 8.

California is the most populous state in the US, with 39.5 million people. So its total numbers are big, but a little misleading. On a per capita basis, its numbers are much lower than Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Georgia. All charts below are on a per capita basis for comparitive purposes from state to state. California is doing a little better than the other 3.

Governor: Gavin Knewsomething (D)

California COVID 19 Data

Click to enlarge

Texas

The second most populous state is Texas.

Testing still appears to be in an uptrend, but the numbers of tests have dropped sharply this week. They’ve


continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Beirut explosion: the disaster was exceptional but events leading up to it were not - researchers

 

Beirut explosion: the disaster was exceptional but events leading up to it were not – researchers

A trade in waste flows from Europe to Asia. Avigator Fortuner/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Scott Edwards, University of Bristol and Christian Bueger, University of Copenhagen

At the time of writing at least 100 people have lost their lives and a further 4,000 have been wounded following an ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

UConn Becomes First Major College In The US To Cancel 2020 Football Season

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

UConn's 2020 football season will forever remain the year that could have been.

The Connecticut flagship state university set a nationwide precedent on Wednesday when its athletic department announced that it would cancel its upcoming football season over fears tied to the coronavirus pandemic.

...



more from Tyler

The Technical Traders

Walk Through the Gold and Silver Charts to See What to Expect

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Check out the analysis of this morning’s Gold and Silver charts by our own Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist and Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com, to see what is in store for precious metals. Make sure you check out our Gold and Silver article from August 4th, 2020 for additional context behind our predictions and rationale for continued price appreciation.

Learn more about our ...



more from Tech. Traders

Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

ValueWalk

Beyond Meat Has Not Disclosed Its Environmental Effects

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A recent S&P Global Market Intelligence Trucost analysis found that Beyond Meat Inc., the maker of plant-based meat alternatives, has not disclosed the full extent of its environmental impacts. This includes the amount of greenhouse gases emitted or the volume of water discharged.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Beyond Meat Has "0" Disclosure Of Environmental Impacts

Key insights from the analysis include:

  • Beyond Meat’s weighted environmental disclosure ratio, which shows what percentage of its environmental impacts it discloses...


more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the US Dollar Nearing Bottom? Or Is It Different This Time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The U.S. Dollar ran into a perfect storm in 2020: a pandemic (Coronavirus), an easy Federal Reserve, and trillions of dollars in government stimulus.

The result has been a steep decline in the greenback.

Looking at today’s chart, however, suggests that the US Dollar may be nearing a bottom. That is if recent history proves true.

The Dollar is testing its 9-year bullish up-trend support at (1) and US Dollar bulls are disappearing. In fact, investors are the least bullish the US Dollars (20% bulls) since 2011 at (2). Notice that each ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



more from Bitcoin

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



more from Our Members

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.