Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Monday Market Movement – Earnings Season Finally Begins!

Related imageIt's earnings season!  

Finally we get to see whether or not these record highs come with record earnings!  We got off to a bang on Friday with beats from FRC ($1.26 vs $1.22 expected), INFY ($9.36 vs $8.95), JPM ($2.65 vs $2.35), PNC ($2.61 vs $2.60) and WFC ($1.20 vs $1.10) so so far, so good it seems and, this morning, Citigroup (C) came in at $1.87 vs $1.79 expected and Goldman Sachs (GS) is $5.71 vs $5.02, M&T Bank (MTB) $3.35 vs $3.29 and we're waiting for Schwab (SCHW) and Washington Federal (WAFD) but things are looking good in banking

Goldman Sachs, of course, gained 2.5% on Friday so today's earnings is giving them no additional lift and that's another sign of a toppy market as the whole banking sector went up on just a few earnings reports so woe unto any of them who fail to deliver going forward.  We still have plenty of Banks to hear from but, more interesting, will be the companies who may have been affected by the Government Shut-Down in Q1 – that's where we're expecting to get some resistance.

Earnings Whispers has the above cool charts for earnings and I love the "implied move" into earnings as it can alert you to seriously mis-matches that we can potentially take advantage of like Micro-Vision, where options imply a 50% move but the average move is only 11.3%.  MVIS is essentially a penny stock, trading at $1.03 but it does have options abd a fun way to play them is to sell the August $1 calls for 0.40 and sell the August $1 puts for 0.30 so you are collecting 0.70 and anything less than an 0.70 move between now and Aug 16th (expiration day) is your profit.  

Sketchers (SKX) on the other hand, usually makes violent moves on earnings yet it's priced for a relatively calm 7.6% move so we can play them to be more violent than that but we can also use our heads and, though we love to be bullish on SKX when they are low (and we are aggressively long in our…
continue reading





Quantomania

 

Quantomania

Courtesy of George Monbiot 

(Originally published in the Guardian 10th April 2019, Neoliberalism promised freedom – instead it delivers stifling control)

Neoliberalism promised to save us from bureaucracy. Instead, it has delivered a mad, semi-privatised authoritarianism

My life was saved last year by the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, through a skilful procedure to remove a cancer from my body. Now I will need another operation, to remove my jaw from the floor. I’ve just learnt what was happening at the hospital while I was being treated.

On the surface, it ran smoothly. Underneath, unknown to me, was fury and tumult. Many of the staff had objected to a decision by the National Health Service to privatise the hospital’s cancer scanning. They complained that the scanners the private company was offering are less sensitive than the hospital’s own machines. Privatisation, they said, would put patients at risk. In response, as the Guardian revealed last week, NHS England threatened to sue the hospital for libel if its staff continued to criticise the decision.

The dominant system of political thought in this country, that produced both the creeping privatisation of public health services and this astonishing attempt to stifle free speech, promised to save us from dehumanising bureaucracy. By rolling back the state, neoliberalism would allow autonomy and creativity to flourish. Instead, it has delivered a semi-privatised authoritarianism, more oppressive than the system it replaced.

Workers find themselves enmeshed in a Kafkaesque bureaucracy, centrally controlled and micromanaged. Organisations that depend on a cooperative ethic – such as schools and hospitals – are stripped down, hectored and forced to conform to suffocating diktats. The introduction of private capital into public services – that would herald a glorious new age of choice and openness – is brutally enforced. The doctrine promises diversity and freedom, but demands conformity and silence.

Much of the theory behind these transformations arises from the work of Ludwig von Mises. In his book Bureaucracy, published in 1944, he argued that there could be no accommodation between capitalism…
continue reading





US Economy Growing Or Not?

 

US Economy Growing Or Not?

Courtesy of 

Is the US economy growing or not? That is the question. Or at least it’s a question that preoccupies some investors. For us, it’s more about the liquidity. But the Fed supplies liquidity, and it watches the economy to make its willy nilly, ad hoc policy changes.

Of course that may be less important than Dear Leader Don’s middle of the night phone calls to Fed Chairman Pow!

3 AM, phone rings at the Pow residence. The familiar voice of the dear leader is on the line. “Hey, Jerry Jay. Ever heard of that guy Khashoggi?” Click.

But seriously folks, Chairman Pow and his Fed minions all say the Fed is data dependent, and who are we to disbelieve. The era of willy nilly ad hoc responses to every squiggle of the economic data is upon us.

And we have an advantage in knowing whether the US economy is growing or not. Because we follow not the lagging, official economic data. We follow the real time Federal tax collection data, along with a few other real time indicators. The mainstream economic seers and their media handmaidens pay little attention to these indicators. It’s just too darn much work.

But I’ve been tracking them for years, so it’s easy. So here, forthwith is a tiny sliver of what I just reported in my monthly Federal Budget data update.

You should subscribe to that, if I say so myself. There’s a wealth of great, real time, unmassaged tax data in these reports, which I post twice a month. This post comes from the second of those reports, issued a day or two after the US Treasury posts its Monthly Treasury Statement.

In those reports I reported that the data showed that we’re headed for an inflation shock. Lo and behold, March headline CPI came in at a surprise increase of 0.4%. That’s a monthly rate that would blow out the Fed’s 2% annual inflation rate target and lead to all kinds of problems in the bond market at least.

I post the other report within the first few days of the month,…
continue reading





Japanified World Ahead

 

Japanified World Ahead

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions are changing, too.

I still think the economy is okay for now. I still see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point this growth phase will end, either in recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). And I still think we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.

What’s evolved is my judgment on the coming slowdown’s severity and duration. I think the rest of the world will enter a period something like Japan endured following 1990, and is still grappling with today. It won’t be the end of the world; Japan is still there, but the little growth it’s had was due mainly to exports. That won’t work when every major economy is in the same position.

Describing this decline as “Japanification” may be unfair to Japan but it’s the best paradigm we have. The good news is it will spread slowly. The bad news is it will end slowly, too.

I believe we will avoid literal blood in the streets but it will be a challenging time. We’ll be discussing how to get through it more specifically at the Strategic Investment Conference next month. It is now sold out but you can still buy a Virtual Pass that includes audio and video of almost the whole event. Click here for information.

Losing Decades

Before I explain why we will follow Japan, I want to briefly explain how Japan got to where it is. It was a long, slow process that, like the proverbial frog in boiling water, wasn’t fully obvious in real time.

Japan experienced rapid growth following World War II as the US and others helped rebuild its economy. That wasn’t all out of generosity; the country was geopolitically important as a Western…
continue reading





Hey Siri! Why are food retailers so slow to embrace technology?

 

Hey Siri! Why are food retailers so slow to embrace technology?

File 20190409 2909 pb1g5k.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Voice-enabled searches are becoming increasingly popular when it comes to web browsing, and that’s a problem for the food industry. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University

Your own voice will likely become the most significant focus for food retailers and restaurants over the next little while. Voice searches are increasingly becoming the norm. A recent study suggests that more than 50 per cent of all online searches will be voice-activated by 2020.

To a lesser extent, grocery shopping is also done through voice activation. Since Siri, Cortana, Alexa and Google Assistant have entered our world, voice searching has become a game-changer for the food industry.

The main reason is convenience. Short of having our own personal robot, this is the new frontier of affordable personalized assistance. These virtual assistants will offer us advice as well as perform tasks for consumers. They are, of course, the “voices” of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google. These companies have been connecting with us for years through many devices, including phones, tablets and even video game consoles.

Consumers now use voice search as they conduct other activities, like driving. Search results generally result in purchases, so for businesses, coming up as a top result of a voice search can be highly profitable.

The same rule applies for the food industry. Voice search assistance will zero in on our awareness of brands, our perceptions, biases and many other things we are subconsciously influenced by. And so the food industry needs to start marketing through apps and websites that are easily readable by virtual assistants.

Cutting through the marketing noise

Voice recognition is really about data and algorithms. It is about connecting with the market in a way few grocers or restaurants have done. After all, we’re still receiving grocery flyers every week to sell us food in our mailboxes or newspapers — that is if you still subscribe to one.

Voice assistance allows all of us to cut through all the marketing noise and find what we really want.

The average Canadian consumer is exposed to more than 5,000…
continue reading





Fantastic Friday – Pre-Market Boost Turns the Week Positive

At 4am the week turned positive in the Futures.

A bit later, it was announced that Chevron (CVX) was buying Anadarko (APC) for $33Bn AND CVX will spend another $5Bn buying back 2% of their own stock.  That's pumping up the energy sector into earnings season as APC is getting a 44% premium to yesterday's close, which is an indicator that the energy sector stocks may be underpriced by quite a bit or it's simply a play to capture Natural Gas assets (/NG), which we are long on.

In our Long-Term Portfolio, we have an aggressive position on Chesapeake (CHK), which we thought was very undervalued at $2.50 and our net $0 position is already up $3,425 but still has plenty of room to grow as it pays $15,000 at $5 so a potential triple from here if all goes well:

CHK Short Put 2020 17-JAN 4.00 PUT [CHK @ $3.33 $-0.07] -50 1/8/2018 (280) $-6,000 $1.20 $-0.18 $-0.95    


continue reading





The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 04-10-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:31 – Checking on the Markets
00:09:09 – EIA Report
00:13:11 – Crude Oil WTI Chart | OPEC
00:20:22 – Trade Techniques
00:23:10 – BA
00:34:53 – JO | Coffee
00:46:48 – Current News
00:54:05 – FOMC Minutes
00:57:22 – More Trade Techniques
00:57:55 – MT
01:02:42 – U.S. Steel
01:05:06 – Current News (Continuation)
01:06:22 – Portfolio Review: OOP
01:16:43 – MJ
01:22:47 – Portfolio Review: OOP (Continuation)
01:28:07 – WPM
01:30:12 – Portfolio Review: Butterfly Portfolio
01:33:19 – Porfolio Review: Money Talk
01:37:39 – Porfolio Review: STP & LTP

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





$2,000 Thursday – Our Webinar Short Pays off Nicely

Wheeee – that was fun!  

Yesterday, in our Live Trading Webinar, we picked up two shorts on Gasoline Futures (/RB) after reading the Full Petroleum Status Report  (released at 1pm) and deciding the run-up to $2.06 was miguided.  We rode out a bit of pain to $2.07 but decided to stick with it into the close and, this morning, we were rewarded with a lovely drop to $2.04, where we are taking the very nice $2,196.60 profit and running.  Congratulations to all who played along at home.  

Once again, this is the key to Fundamental Investing, we read the news and reports, check out the data and then make our trades based on how that information is likely to affect the stocks and commodities we are trading.  It's much more fun, and satisfying, than starting at squiggly lines on a chart all day.  

This morning there's pressure on commodities and indexes as well, with Silver (/SI) plunging all the way back to $15 and Gold (/YG) to $1,300 as the Dollar pops back up – something else we were expecting and  today's excuse is a Brexit extension that has weakened the Euro and the Pound but also the relatively hawkishness of our Fed compared to other Central Banksters is a factor that continues to keep the Dollar strong.

We love playing /SI long at the $15 line, it's great for a bounce and an easy line to place tight stops below – especially when the only reason Silver is down is because the Dollar is up – that's a dumb reason for people to bail out of their positions but /SI is a painful contract, at $50 per penny, per contract so gains, and losses, come very quickly.  $14.90 has been the low for the year and the $15 line has held up well so we take these opportunities whenever they come along.

Also in yesterday's webinar, we reviewed our Member Portfolios, which are up nicely for the month and we discussed the importance of using some of those unrealized profits (25-33%) to shore up our hedges and lock in those gains – because they can reverse in
continue reading





Capitalism Gone Wild

 

Capitalism Gone Wild

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Recession is coming. We can debate the timing, but the economy will turn decisively downward at some point. My own analysis, looking at the data available on April 4, says recession isn’t likely this year but unfortunately looks very probable in 2020.

In addition to when it will happen, there’s also the question of how deep the next recession will be. A shallow downturn wouldn’t be fun, but compared to the last one might feel relatively refreshing.

Alas, I don’t think we will be that lucky. I think the opposite: The next recession will be deeper, longer and far more painful to many more people than your average recession, and could persist as long as the last one. That is because the next recession in all likelihood will be truly global. If you sailed through 2007–2009 without your lifestyle changing, I wouldn’t assume it will happen that way again.

Ironically, but not surprisingly, it will be the response to the last recession that makes the next one so much worse. Part of the reason is that investors once again “learned” that if you simply stay the course, the market will get you back to where you were and more. The massive move into low-fee index investing instead of active management will make the next recession more painful.

You must understand that 75% of today’s wealth is in the hands of retirees and pre-retirees. Most have a significant portion of their money in index funds, and they’re going to see significant erosion of their retirement assets. I’m thinking especially of those depending on public pensions, which are heavily weighted to a form of index investing. Public pensions are already significantly underfunded (in general) and a bear market will make them even more so. It will be painful and I can assure you it will cause a lot of political angst. Today I’ll tell you why I think this. It may be one of the more important letters I’ve written in the recent past, so read carefully.

Unwise Investment

Central bankers have a well-worn playbook for handling recessions. Cut interest rates, increase liquidity,


continue reading





Which Way Wednesday – Russell 2000 Fails at the 200 DMA

Are we recovering from yesterday's dip?

While the Futures are up 0.2%, the Dollar is down 0.2% so that's just a re-pricing against the weak Dollar, rather than a pre-market rally and, even with the currency boost, the Russell (RUT) has once again failed to hold the 200-day moving average at 1,573 and that's what signaled our March sell-off but it won't be a catastrophe until we fail the 50-day moving average at 1,545 – so that's the line we want to watch very closely.  

Yesterday we shorted the S&P Futures (/ES) with a target of 1,580 and we hit that on the nose for a $1,000 per contract gain and then we flipped to the Nasdaq (/NQ) shorts at 7,600 and those paid us another $400 per contract into the close but this morning we're just watching and waiting – mostly hoping oil pops to $65 on inventories (10:30), so we can short that. 

Oil is up from the $59-60 range in late March so call it $59.50 and 10% up from there is actually $65.45 but let's say $65.50 and it's a $6 run so $1.20 pullbacks to $64.30 (weak) and $63.10 (strong) but I'm betting weak holds as we have a holiday coming up.  In either case, we can prettty confidently take a poke at shorting oil at $65 with a tight stop over (0.10) and then again at $65.50 and $66 if we have to and we'll carry our 0.20-0.30 loss knowing it's very likely that, when we get it right, we have a $1.20 ($1,200 per contract) gain to look forward to.

Remember, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!  

Today we have a $20Bn auction of 10-year treasury notes at 1pm and it's long been a pattern that the market goes down ahead of a 10-year auction as it scares investors into buying bonds, which keeps the rates low and countries that owe $21Tn NEED to have rates a low as possible.   This morning the ECB announced they will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Five Reasons For The Weakness Of The Argentine Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via dlacalle.com,

Argentina has been “printing money for the people” MMT-style for many years. Its wrongly-called “inclusive monetary policy” of the past - print money to finance massive government spending - has driven the country to massive inflation and depression.

This is the main reason why a country with an excellent education, human capital, and high economic potential has third-world inf...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Why Easter is called Easter, and other little-known facts about the holiday

Happy Easter Everyone! 

Why Easter is called Easter, and other little-known facts about the holiday

What is the origin of Easter eggs? Katie Morrow, CC BY-NC-ND

Courtesy of Brent Landau, U...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



more from Chart School

Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



more from ValueWalk

Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>