Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

The State of Gen Z

 

The State of Gen Z

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I really enjoyed this Gen Z Trends Report from Zebra IQ.

Who is Gen Z?

Download the report and it might help you spot a few trends. Share it with your kids as well.

Have a great Saturday.





Losing money is the coolest!

 

Losing money is the coolest!

Courtesy of 

The newest episode of my podcast just went live!

Josh talks to Ben Carlson about how it is that over 400 companies in the Russell 3000 have lost money this year but posted an average stock market return of +57%. Over 100 companies that lost money in 2020 have actually seen their share price double! WTF is going on?

Dasarte Yarnway joins Josh to talk about his burgeoning financial advisory firm and the powerful message he’s been sharing throughout the industry: Spend time doing the things you value and the rest will fall into place. Dasarte is the founder of Berknell Financial Group and the host of the Young Money podcast. Dasarte wrote a chapter in the new book How I Invest My Money, now available for pre-order.

Plus: The Fastly blow-up this week may be more meaningful than you think, BlackRock says $1.4 trillion is sitting in mutual funds with negative 3-year returns, and is it Larry Kudlow’s responsibility to help you trade the pandemic?  Nope!

You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

And be sure to leave a rating and review – they go a long way!

Get it here:

Apple podcasts

Spotify podcasts

Google podcasts





Philstockworld October Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,566,572!  

That's up $361,550 for our paired portfolios since our September 18th review and we only made one change in our Long-Term Portfolio – selling 5 calls against our Berkshire Hathaway position.  The LTP went from $1,039,240 to $1,070,623 but the big move was the Tesla (TSLA) postion in the STP, that went from -$881,087 to -673,065 (including our 50% cash-out), accounting for over $200,000 of the gains.  Because of the cash-out, TSLA is now less volatile for us as we wanted to be sure our hedges were true hedges into the Elections, Earnings and the Holidays – all hitting us bang, bang, bang for the next and last 77 days of 2020.

We just did our STP review on Tuesday and we got much more aggressively short in order to cover our now $1M gain for the year.  It should be noted there was an error in the price of the SQQQ June $30 calls, which were sold for $8.50, not $11.70 (the put price) but, fortunately, our other positions acquited themselves and made up for the downward adjustment.  We're also half CASH!!! in the STP and that means we're flexible and ready to take advantag of earnings season and we will be looking for bullish bargains because we have PLENTY of downside protection at the moment.

  • UPRO is our new hedge and the short $50 puts are rollable so, in a catastrophe that brings us down to $30, we expect to be able to roll the short puts and end up with $400,000 from the long puts from our net $179,500 entry.  If that does not happen, then the short puts will pay us $20,500 in January (already in the net) and another $80,000 over the next 4 quarters so the net cost of our $400,000 insurance policy should be about $100,000 when all is said and done.  

  • CMG – has earnings next week (21st)
  • SQQQ – cost us net $58,000 and it's at least a $300,000 potential spread (rollable as well) and, of course, we will sell more short calls to pay down that $58,000


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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 10-14-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!

 

Major Topics:

00:04:31 – Checking on the Market
00:16:50 – WBA
00:26:42 – Trading Techniques
00:28:57 – Indices
00:31:14 – Visual Capitalist Chart: Business Closures
00:34:14 – Real GDP by State | Stimulus Package
00:47:00 – IPIC
00:51:32 – National Debt Clock
00:55:05 – Best Country to Live In
00:59:18 – COVID-19 Update
01:12:35 – More Trading Techniques
01:14:40 – XRT
01:15:32 – OSTK
01:18:32 – GPS
01:20:12 – STP
01:20:40 – LTP
01:26:14 – RH

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here





Fallback Thursday – Reality Hits the Markets

Wheeee, down we go!

In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar we discussed the merits of shorting Oil (/CL) Futures at the $41 mark.  We had already made a quick $500 shorting oil in our Live Member Chat Room early yesterday morning (and it was in our Top Trade Alert) but we're not sy about betting on the same horse twice and at 4:26 I said to our Members:

/CL back at $41 is back to being a short again below the line now that it's calmed down as I can't see EIA being exciting enough to justify – last week certainly didn't and Columbus Day is not much of a driving/travel holiday, is it?

As you can see, we're back to test $39.50 this morning and we'll take the money and run there as it's the 2nd green S2 support level so it's bound to be bouncy in the very least – should be a $3,000 gain for all our hard work!  

Remember:  I can only tell you what is likely to happen in the market and how to profit from it – the rest is up to you!  

I noted another way to play for our Members as well:

Another reason I like shorting oil here is we're not far away from the rollover on the November contracts and December is very crowded with fake orders that NO ONE is going to want delivered so we could be heading for a nasty crash like we had in March, when there were way too many May contracts to roll into.


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Will it be a ‘V’ or a ‘K’? The many shapes of recessions and recoveries

 

Will it be a 'V' or a 'K'? The many shapes of recessions and recoveries

A ‘V’ recovery is seen as the best way to bounce back from a recession. Steve Stone/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Hauk, University of South Carolina

Recessions – typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic output – are always painful in terms of how they affect our economic well-being. Like all bad things, fortunately, they eventually end and a recovery begins.

But not all recoveries or recessions look the same. And economists have a tendency to compare their varying paths with letters of the alphabet.

For example, during the current situation, you may have the heard the direction the recovery might take compared with a “V,” a “W” or even a “K.”

As a macroeconomist, I know this alphabet soup can be confusing for a lay reader. So here’s a guide to some of the most commonly used letters.

‘V’ for victory

While recessions are never a good thing, the “V-shaped” recovery is deemed the best-case scenario. In a recession with a V shape, the decline is rapid, but so is the recovery.

A good example of this type of recession took place in 1981 and 1982. That recession occurred after then-Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker rapidly raised interest rates beginning in 1979 in an effort to curb high inflation. This caused a sharp recession – leading to what was then the highest unemployment rate in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

But outside of economic circles, this recession is little remembered. Why? Primarily because the recovery was so rapid. After Volcker began cutting interest rates in the second half of 1982, the economy entered a recovery as sharp as the recession.

‘U’ and a long bottom

Conversely, a “U-shaped” recession generally has a longer duration, both for the downturn and the recovery period. The 2001 recession that followed the dot-com bubble and the 9/11 attacks fits into this…
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Wednesday Worries – 25% of Small Businesses are Closed

This is concerning.

In this excellent but disturbing graphic by Visual Capitalist, major cities are averaging 30% drops in small business activity with San Francisco HALF closed and New Oreleans not far behind.  When you break it down to liesure and hospitality businesses, it's a devastating 65% and 72% in those cities and even Washington, DC has 55% of their L&H sector closed among 37% of all small businesses still shut down.  

Yet out Congresspeople can't see the need for more stimulus?  Do we need any better reason to throw the bums out?  And it's not like we're having some fantastic recovery.  Overall Small Business Activity in the US is down 21% – no better than it was in June and that's AFTER the first $4Tn in stimulus has been spent.  

There's been some spillover from Main Street to Wall Street as Bank of America's (BAC) profits are down 16% in today's report and Wells Fargo's (WFC) are down 56% but Goldman Sachs' profits almost doubled expectation at $9.68 per $215 share in a single quarter – very impressive.  We don't have much banking in the LTP and GS is a good one (well, evil, but good earnings) so let's add them with the following trade:

  • Sell 5 GS 2023 $165 puts for $20 ($10,000) 
  • Buy 10 GS 2023 $170 calls for $60 ($60,000)
  • Sell 10 GS 2023 $210 calls for $40 ($40,000) 

That's net $10,000 on the $40,000 spread that's 100% in the money to start and all GS has to do is not be lower than it is today in 2.25 years and we make $30,000 (300%) – aren't options fun?  Our worst-case scenario is owning 500 shares at net $185, 15% lower than the current price and the ordinary margin requirement is just $5,718 – so it's a very margin-efficient way to make $30,000 too!

JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup posted better-than-expected results Tuesday, while also warning that the economy isn’t out of the woods yet and there may be significant defaults on loans by customers in the future.  While the Big Banks may be able to profit off the misery of others, the regional banks will be hit…
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Barry Ritholtz Joins Me On ‘Panic With Friends’ to Talk Financial Twitter, Bloomberg, His Dream Dinner Guests, and More

 


Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

My friend Barry joined me on the ‘Panic’ podcast today and my only worry was if we could stay on any subject long enough to have a coherent conversation. I will let you be the judge. If you know either one of us, I guarantee a few laughs.

The show description is below and you can listen right here on Spotify or Apple.

Guest: Barry Ritholtz

Profile: Founder and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, Bloomberg Columnist

Where to Find Him: LinkedInTwitter

Fun Fact: If you like my blog and want to get some more insights into the investing world, I highly recommend checking out Barry’s blog “The Big Picture.” It’s ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others.

What’s the Panic About:

Barry Ritholtz is one of my oldest friends on the financial web which we know often call ‘fintwit’. At first I had to beg him to get on Twitter. But over 100,000 tweets later, I would probably have to pry his phone from his hands to get him to stop tweeting. I had so much fun bringing Barry on for my first episode back in our Phoenix studio. He’s a great conversationalist, writer, eater, thinker and businessman. I also like to call him a wonk, but that’s just personal preference. My guess is the only person panicking during this episode was Knut thinking about how much editing he had ahead of him.

Barry holds many titles, including: creator and host of Bloomberg’s “Masters in Business” radio podcast, featured Washington Post and Bloomberg columnist, creator of the financial blog “The Big Picture,” author of “Bailout Nation” and founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management. On top of that, he has been called one of the “15 most important economic journalists” in the U.S. and one of the “25 most dangerous people in financial media.” If you haven’t already guessed, Barry and I were not short on topics of conversation for this episode. While we did go off on some tangents, we hit a lot of interesting subjects, including:…
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Toppy Tuesday – $2Tn Stimulus Talks Buys Us a Trip back to the Highs

Here we are again!

After incredible gains yesterday, we're back to the highs on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 and we're waiting for the Russell to come back to 1,700 (now 1,636) but even the NYSE has joined the party at 13,324 and things could not be greater in America, could they?  

Well, the economy may be on life support but what a lot of life support we're getting with Trump now bidding $2Tn and Biden saying that's nowhere near enough so, whoever gets elected – there's going to be lots of money flowing into the economy – just don't ask where it came from…

Apple (AAPL) led the markets higher yesterday, jumping 6.35% in a single day ahead of today's iPhone 12 event.  While Apple may be introducing a 5G phone, the US is certainly not ready (the rest of the World is) as Trump's ban of Huawei set us back quite a bit and he either saved us from Chinese spying or put America about a year behind the rest of the World in technology - which one do you think Putin was hoping for?  

Despite the run-up in the Nasdaq, our Short-Term Portfolio is holding up well at $484,069 – up a very healthy 384% for the year and that's strange for a hedging portfolio in an up year but that's because we caught a couple of nice down moves perfectly AND we made some very profitable short-term plays.  We're down about $30,000 since last Wednesday but our Long-Term Portfolio has jumped from $1,005,650 to $1,065,450 (up 113%) so we're going to take the +$30,000 we made in the LTP and spend it on more hedges in the STP to lock in those gains – just in case.

Short-Term Portfolio (STP) Review:

  • CANE – We figured sugar would do well with people being shut inside and nothing to do but bake.  We can exit at $1.20.

  • INTC – Just a short put to raise cash.  Very confident.
  • WBA – My favorite bargain stock.  In contention for Stock of the Year 2021.


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The End of Trump’s Fifth Avenue

 

The End of Trump’s Fifth Avenue

Courtesy of Robert Reich

“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters," Trump boasted in 2016.

Trump’s 5th Avenue principle is being tested as never before. So far, more than 214,000 Americans have died from Covid-19, one of the world’s highest death rates – due in part to Trump initially downplaying its dangers, then refusing responsibility for it, promoting quack remedies for it, muzzling government experts on it, pushing states to reopen despite it, and discouraging people from wearing masks.

Yet some 40 percent of Americans have stuck by him nonetheless. They’ve remained loyal even after he turned the White House into a hotspot for the virus, even after he caught it himself, and even after asserting just days ago that it’s less lethal than the flu. A recent nonpartisan study concluded that Trump’s blatant disinformation has been the largest driver of COVID misinformation in the world.

They’ve stuck by him even as more than 11 million Americans have lost their jobs, 40 million risk eviction from their homes, 14 million have lost health insurance, and almost one out of five Americans with kids at home cannot afford to adequately feed their children.

They’ve stuck by him even though more Americans have sought unemployment benefits this year than voted for him in 2016, even after Trump cut off talks on economic relief, even though he’s pushing the Supreme Court to repeal the Affordable Care Act, causing 20 million more to lose health insurance.  

Trump is in effect standing in the middle of 5th Avenue, killing Americans.

Yet here we are, just a few weeks before the election, and his supporters still haven’t budged. The latest polls show him with 40% to 43% of voters, while Joe Biden has a bare majority.

The most egregious test of Trump’s 5th Avenue principle is still to come, when he tries to kill off American democracy. He’s counting on his supporters to keep him in power even after he loses the popular vote.

He’s ready to claim that mail-in ballots, made necessary by the pandemic, are rife with…
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Zero Hedge

FDA Approves Gilead's Remdesivir To Treat COVID-19 Despite Data Showing Drug Doesn't Work

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Despite reams of data from an international WHO study raising serious questions about its efficacy, the FDA has finally approved the use of Gilead Science's remdesivir - a powerful antiviral originally developed to treat ebola - for the treatment of COVID-19, making it the first such drug approved to treat the virus in the US.

The FDA first granted the drug emergency authorization in May, allowing hospitals and ...



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Phil's Favorites

SPINNING WHEEL

 

SPINNING WHEEL

Courtesy of Almost Daily Grant's

Top of the heap no more. International Business Machines Corp. reported third quarter earnings on Monday, including $17.56 billion in revenues.  That’s down 2.6% from a year ago and 3.1% sequentially and the weakest result since the first quarter of 1997. 

While $2.58 in headline earnings per share was down 4% from a year ago, a series of salutary one-time adjustments spruced up that figure, which was 27% above the $1.89 per share derived from generally accepted accounting principles.  Even those GAAP results were flattered by a meager 7% corporate tax rate.  In 1985, when then-dominant IBM commanded a 6.4% share of the market cap-weighted S&P 500 (a record single-stock concentrati...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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ValueWalk

A New Judge At The Expense Of COVID Relief

By Ankur Shah. Originally published at ValueWalk.

What’s At Stake for Small Businesses with another Conservative Supreme Court Confirmation?

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Press Call - Monday - 2pm ET - Register

Senate Wants A New Judge At ...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Disney's pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

 

Image by Eiji Kikuta from Pixabay

 

Disney’s pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

Courtesy of Hamza Mudassir, Cambridge Judge Business School

Disney has announced a significant restructuring o...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper/Gold Indicator Breaking Out Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Doc Copper/Gold ratio broke above a 2-year falling channel back in 2016 at (1). Following this breakout, it rallied for the next year. During that year, Copper related assets did very well!

The ratio peaked in the summer of 2018 and created a series of lower highs over the past two years.

The strength of late has the ratio attempting to break above dual resistance at (2).

If the ratio continues to push higher and succeeds in breaking out, Copper, Basic Materials (XLB), and ...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.