Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!
zeroxzero
I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves.
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult.
I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !
1234Gel
Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.
Bcfla
Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels.
Your levels:
Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402
My sceen is showing:
Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404
Jordan
Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.
Acd54
I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.
Jordan
I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?
Bill Hoffman
Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably.
Happy New Years to you all!
JBur
Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads.
That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc.
Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities.
Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.
Ben1Be
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade...
but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys....
and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,
HJ Kobbeman
I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.
Denlundy
I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.
Winston
10/15/2014: Phil…..been travelling more than not but reading and watching you guys every night. This is to say a big thank you. Even though I don't have the time to trade every day now I set up hedges and base long term strategy on PSW. I now it may sound like BS to some readers but my 401k is down a mere 3%. It hardly gets my attention when I open my brokerage portfolio accounts. And that is by using your longer term hedges and strategies. I don't need to be a day trader to take advantage of PSW. At this time in my life when I cant trade every day……. not losing what we've gained moves front and center. It's just a great feeling to watch your brokerage account hold steady in a sea of red. Thanks Teacher.
Livingfull
Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!
DCalrk41
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
Investwizard
PSW AC Conf: For those who may be on the bubble, I attended my first PSW LV in November. It was a real eye-opener. What I accomplished in a couple of days of exposure to Phil, Pharm, Craig, et al made my previous couple of years of hanging around the web site seem silly. If you are inclined in the slightest, you really should go. Just rubbing shoulders with other PSW members proved to be really valuable. Strictly on the basis of value, it's a great deal. You will have real time conversations with Phil and the gang and they will get to your questions and agenda items.
Mjjwo9b
Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!
Jomptien
As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges.
Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double."
Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain.
Thanks,
Bob
RJK
I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.
Pharmboy
Phil,
thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you.
I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week.
thank you!
DawnR
I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.
Craigsa620
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Chasw
Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!
Iflantheman
Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"
Gel1
Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years.
THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS
Tchayipov
Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!
OnWisconsin
I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG). Phil deserved my subscription and I was eager to learn more. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I have a lot to learn, experience and confidence to gain. Thanks again Phil and Successful Trading to all.
Verreaul
I remember that call (to sell gold at $1,850) as well... and the many Buy-Writes that were created on your site during that period... thanks to you, I had an average ROI of close to 70% for over 2 years, averaging 4,000 trades per year. Busy trading, but lots of fun and memorable trades.
1234gel
Phil/Everyone here/Thank you - What everyone here with their insightful comments (including yourself) has helped me with is that I'm greatly increasing my ability to trade more psychologically neutral, although I've got a ways to go. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks. The old me would have ran with that trade for profits without even asking. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even. Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. Both COF and my past DMM venture have been excellent learning experiences. Thanks, everyone. I look forward to further lessons.
Skasiah
I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!
The S&P 500 gained 6.4% last week, the second-best post-pandemic performance for the large-cap index. For a moment there, we were out of bear-market territory, bouncing to an 18.5% decline from all-time highs. Now, it’s a bear market again ¯\_(?)_/¯
All silliness aside, calls for a bottom appear premature.
Michael Cembalest and his team did some work on what you want to be on the lookout for, and we’re not there quite yet. They said that PMI surveys have historically been the best leading indicators, and so you’re going to want to see that bottom. It hasn’t. He also pointed out in the chart below, that over the last few decades, we’ve seen interest rates top prior to equity markets bottoming (gray line). So we’re 0 for 2.
Economic data is backward-looking, which is why it tends to bottom after the stock market. Cembalest shows that on average, stocks bottom 116 days before the economy does. That’s a long time. The news will get worse, but the market will stop reacting to it. We’re not there yet.
While it’s too early to call a bottom, there are some signs of capitulation (ARKK flows aside). The companies trading below their cash levels are at the highest levels in the last few decades.
And investors, at least the ones polled by AAII are as bearish as they’ve been since the GFC.
Every bear market is unique, but they all share one thing in common; they end. Sam Ro has a similar takeaway, saying, “the most important pattern in history’s bear markets is that the market has always come out on top — and then some.”
Josh and I are going to cover this and much more on tonight’s What Are Your Thoughts?
Recession Resistant General Mills Rockets Higher Outlook
We’ve been interested in General Mills (NYSE:GIS) for some time now and we couldn’t be happier with the FQ4 2022 results. The company not only beat on the top and bottom line but issued favorable guidance in the face of mounting economic headwinds. The takeaway here is that defensive consumer staple stocks like General Mills are among the best positioned for today’s times and General Mills is among the best picks. Trading at only 18.5X it’s earnings outlook the stock is undervalued relative to its peers while paying an above-average dividend and growing the bottom line.
“General Mills took important steps to advance its portfolio reshaping efforts during fiscal 2022, announcing or closing seven transactions that are expected to increase the company’s top- and bottom-line growth profile over the long term,” said the company in the Q4 release.
General Mills Attacks Inflation And Scores A Win
General Mills posted a great quarter despite a 500 basis point impact on top-line growth attributed to divestitures and FX conversion. The company reported $4.89 billion in revenue for a gain of 8.2% over last year and it beat the Marketbeat.com consensus by 165 basis points. The growth was driven by a 13% increase in organic sales that are due in large part to pricing and mix. The company says pricing and mix are worth 1400 basis points in revenue and were offset by divestiture, FX, and a 2.0% decline in pound volume. On a segment basis, North American Foodservice led with a gain of 27% which is not surprising given the rebound in hospitality activity. International was weakest at 6% but also felt the largest impact from divestiture while Pet and North American Retail both grew in the mid-teens.
The margin news is a little mixed but ultimately bullish for the stock. The gross margin expanded 120 basis points on the impact of pricing, lower charges versus last year, and divestitures but the adjusted gross margin did not. The AGM contracted by 70 basis points due to “double-digit inflation” offset by pricing actions and internal efforts to control costs. The good news is the AGM is improving on a sequential basis and should…
Unifirst (NYSE:UNF) has been working hard to grow its business in an effort to compete more directly with uniform and business services company Cintas (NASDAQ:CTAS). Looking at the top line, those efforts are paying off but it is costing the company on the bottom line. The bottom-line results, and the guidance, reveal not only the impact of aggressive internal efforts to retain employees, and clients, and expand the brand but the impacts of inflation as well. In our view, Unifirst is well-positioned for the times but now isn’t the right time to buy into the story.
Unifirst had a good quarter when looking at the top line and it even beat the consensus but that is about all the good news we have. The company reported $511.55 in consolidated revenue for a gain of 10.2% over last year but significant margin compression is present as well. The gains were driven by a 10% increase in core Laundry sales that were compounded by a 7.7% increase in specialty garments.
Moving on to the margins, the company reported a 37.8% decline in operating income, a 40.3% decline in net income, and a 40% decline in GAAP EPS that is due to the combination of growth investments and inflation. The company says growth efforts trimmed $11.4million off of the income which is enough to offset some but not all of the margin decline. When adjusting for those costs, the operating and net income declines improve to -16% and -20% but are still deep in negative territory. Looking forward, the company sees these pressures, both of them, continuing in the 4th quarter and have adjusted the guidance accordingly. The company is looking for revenue above the previously stated range and the Marketbeat.com consensus but reduced the outlook for margin. The new earnings guidance is now below the previously stated range and the Marketbeat.com consensus and we see downside risk in the numbers. One of the driving forces of the business is tight labor market conditions, conditions that are presenting problems for Unifirst too.
Patterson Companies Rockets Higher On Results And Outlook
Patterson Companies (NASDAQ:PDCO) has proven to be very resilient over the past few years both increasing its revenue and earnings power relative to the pre-pandemic period. The company is among the most perfectly positioned for the coming period as well, selling products, services, and technology to the dental and animal health care industries. In our view, both of these industries are not only resistant to recessionary fears but may even get a boost from an economic downturn as consumers refocus their spending dollars. That’s great news for this 3.35% yielding stock.
“While we anticipate the current macro environment will have a moderate impact on our end markets, our proven team, compelling value proposition and strong competitive position give us confidence as we enter fiscal 2023. Our fiscal 2023 guidance anticipates delivering year-over-year revenue growth and operating margin expansion,” says CEO Mark Walchirk.
Patterson Companies Beats And Guides Strong, Market Cheers
Patterson Companies had a strong fiscal 4th quarter reporting $1.64 billion in sales. This is up 4.9% from last year, 5.1% organically, and beat the Marketbeat.com consensus by 315 basis points. The strength was driven by gains in both segments led by the Animal Health group. Animal Health sales grew by 7.6% which is above the industry outlook led in turn by sales of Equipment. Equipment sales grew by 22% and were offset by slower growth in the Consumables and a decline in Value-Added Services. The Dental Segment grew by 3.4% and was also led by Equipment sales.
Moving on to the earnings, the news gets even better. The company posted robust margin expansion in both segments driven by cost control efforts, pricing actions, and sales leverage. The company reports GAAP net income is up 122% versus last year while the adjusted income is up 87% YOY and left the EPS well above consensus. The adjusted EPS of $0.71 beat by $0.15 and the company is expecting to see earnings strength continue in the current fiscal year.
Turning to the guidance, the company did not give a number for revenue but it is expecting to see margins expand and earnings grow. The $2.25…
Boxed Inc (NYSE:BOXD) insiders continued to purchase stock during its 80% rout in May and June and their activity caught retail investors’ attention.
Buyers included Chief Executive Officer Chieh Huang and directors David Liu and Andrew Pearson.
Those insider buys appear to have triggered strong retail investor buying activity over the last week and pushed the stock up 1,206 ranks to become the 57th most popular investment for those listing their holdings with the site.
CEO Chieh Huang bought 10,000 shares at $1.65, bringing his total ownership to 2,305,813.
Director David Liu bought his first tranche of 20,000 shares at an average price of $1.66.
Director, Andrew Pearson seized the opportunity to purchase multiple tranches of shares from the 10th to the 14th of June. Pearson bought 150,000 shares at an average price of $1.82 per share for a total value of near 270,000.
Pearson has made a 13% return and a $37,000 gain from the purchase.
The graph to the right illustrates the short term profit experienced by some of the insider trades in June.
These three net insiders have pushed BOXD’s insider and officer accumulation scores to 90.63 and 80.32, respectively. These scores are based on BOXD’s accumulation level relative to over 10,000 screened other companies and placed the company in the top 2.5% of constituents in both categories.
Flat sales and continuing losses hurt the share price as the market rotates into better financed and profitable companies as concerns about rising rates continue.
At the first quarter result release in May, Boxed maintained its full year $220-245 million revenue guidance, and it expects la $70 to $80 million EBITDA loss. The market consensus forecasts are for $225 million for revenue and a $79 EBITDA loss, both at the bottom of the forecast ranges.
DA Davidson hosted Boxed’s management on their technology investor call this week, noting that they believe investors should take advantage and buy the depressed share price. Analyst Tom Forte believes BOXD’s B2C offering is well suited for the inflation environment and believes the SaaS business can help the group outperform peers. The firm remains bullish with a ‘buy’ rating and an $11 target.
So, don’t expect internet users to land on your website and launch a buying spree without your effort. That’s why marketing is vital to any successful eCommerce business’s operations.
Now, there’s no single strategy that works for every eCommerce business. So how do you know the best for your business?
This guide will show you the most effective marketing strategies and how to identify the best for your needs.
How Do You Know What Strategy Is Best For Your eCommerce Business?
As I mentioned earlier, every eCommerce business’s marketing strategy is unique according to various factors. Nevertheless, here are three critical considerations to help you discover the best marketing strategy for your eCommerce business.
Your ideal buyer
While billions of users are online, only a few profiles of people qualify as your ideal customer. Therefore, defining your ideal buyers will determine most of your marketing and even business decisions.
You can define your ideal buyer by creating a buyer persona, which will include details such as:
Name
Gender
Age
Income
Favorite marketing channels
Location
Pain points
Ambitions
Hobbies
These pieces of information will determine elements of your marketing campaigns, such as marketing channels, brand voice, targeting criteria, and more. Here’s an eCommerce buyer persona example from Drip:
Your marketing goals
Although your overall goal is to acquire more customers and revenue, there are many stages of that journey. Your marketing campaigns at various buyer journey stages will have different goals.
Common marketing goals for eCommerce businesses include:
Brand awareness
Lead acquisition
Customer acquisition
Customer retention
Once you have a goal for your marketing campaign, it will inform your marketing messages, channels, and tasks. You must also define the metrics to measure your goal during the goal-setting process.
Without setting a goal for your marketing campaigns, you can…
One of the most frequent questions tossed around Wall Street trading desks (and strip clubs), and which was duly covered by Bloomberg recently in "Fear Has Gone Missing in Wall Street’s Slow-Motion Bear Market", is why despite the crushing bear market and the coming recession, does the VIX refuse to rise sustainably above 30, or in other words, why is the VIX so low?
As Goldman's Rocky Fishman wrote in a recent note "Option Markets Take the SPX Bear Market in Stride" (available to professional subs), "one of the most popular questions we have received is why the VIX hasn't surpassed its March peak (36) despite the SPX being lower than it was in March and realized vol being higher than it was in March."
Here, Fishman notes that implied volatility was unusually high in March, and the current VIX level (29) is only slightly low for the current level of realized vol. Furthermore, a VIX around 30 typically happens with the 5Y CDX HY spread above 600, and although it has risen steadily it's currently in the mid 500's.
Meanwhile, even as the VIX has fallen moderately since late April, both vol risk premium and skew have both fallen dramatically.
Picking up on this quandary, overnight JMorgan also joined the discussion with its analyst Peng Cheng laying out his own thoughts on why the VIX remains so low (note is also available to professional subs), and similar to Goldman notes that the current bear market, despite being deeper in magnitude, has produced VIX levels well below the peak observed during previous market sell-offs:
However, unlike Goldman which mostly analyzes the VIX in the context of a macro framework, JPM's Cheng offers observations based on his analysis of market microstructure in both equity and options markets.
Cheng starts with the previously noted low realized volatility: as the JPM strategist writes, YTD, the SPX realized vol, measured on a close to close basis, is only 25.5, which means that
From dialysis to chickens, the U.S. Department of Justice and its regulatory compatriot, the Federal Trade Commission, are flexing Uncle Sam’s antitrust muscles, notwithstanding strong headwinds from skeptical judges and juries. As the United States Chamber of Commerce recently warned in a brief filed with the courts, “Allowing [DOJ] to retroactively criminalize behavior strikes at the heart of the ordered liberty guaranteed to all Americans.”
The work of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division receives far less public attention than its bigger brother, the Criminal Division, and the 93 U.S. attorneys who prosecute the vast majority of cases brought each year against individual and corporate defendants. Still, the broad reach of modern federal antitrust laws, dating to the early 20th century (the Sherman Antitrust Act in 1909 and the Clayton Act five years later), can strike fear into the hearts of major corporations and their executives, who can be targeted for either civil or criminal prosecution, with hefty fines possible in either context.
While far smaller, the FTC can employ its regulatory reach in tandem with the Antitrust Division to boost policy initiatives favored by an administration intent on punishing the business sector. In this regard, the Biden administration has been particularly aggressive. Fortunately for the free market, the results of this push have been less than impressive. However, recent actions by both the FTC and the Antitrust Division clearly signal this administration’s intent to continue using both its civil and criminal powers to attack the business sector.
In a highly unusual if not unprecedented move, the head of the Antitrust Division, Jonathan Kanter, declared that its lawyers would try for a third time to convince a jury that two of the country’s largest poultry producers, Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. and Claxton Poultry Farms, conspired to share pricing data in order to unlawfully restrict competition. The trial actually began earlier this month, despite the fact that two prior jury trials of the companies’ executives resulted in mistrials – a strong sign that the government’s case lacked requisite evidence, and a sentiment echoed publicly by one of the second trial’s jurors.
Such back-to-back defeats will almost always convince the feds to drop criminal charges
FTSE 100 opens higher – led by energy, mining and defence stocks.
Brent crude rises to $116 a barrel as worries persist about supply.
Russian threat expected to lift demand for military hardware.
The retreat of Covid in China is boosting metals prices and mining shares.
WISE revenues surge but worries remain as co-founder faces regulatory probe.
Oil Prices Climb
“The steady march back upwards in the oil price and expectations of higher defence spending have helped bolster the FTSE 100. The Index surged higher in early trade, before falling back slightly, largely shaking off the nervousness that had hit valuations on Wall Street. BP plc (LON:BP) and Shell PLC (LON:SHEL) surged by more than 2% as Brent crude made gains for the third session in a row, climbing back above $116. Big producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE are believed to be operating near the limits of their capacity, adding to concerns about supplies in the market. G7 leaders are expected to agree on a strategy later today to try and curtail Russia’s financial firepower by putting a price cap on its crude, so that its war coffers deplete.
As warnings come thick and fast from military chiefs about the threat to peace in Europe, the expectation is that spending on defence will take a much larger slice of government budgets going forward. With commitments to rapidly increase the number of troops on alert, military hardware requirements will be higher and that’s helping lift the share price of defence contractors. Rolls-Royce Holding PLC (LON:RR), climbed almost 5% amid expectations thatthere will continued to be improved trading for its defence arm. Interest has also been bolstered in arms and aerospace contractor BAE Systems plc (LON:BA), which lifted by 1.6% in early trade.
Covid Retreating In China
The Covid crisis appears to be rapidly retreating in China, with no major cities in widespread lockdown and a rapid drop in cases being reported. The zero-Covid strategy appears to have quashed the Spring outbreak, and the prospects of rapid recovery for the world’s second largest economy is helping lift miners, as metals prices rise in expectation of a surge in demand…
US consumer sentiment and confidence have deteriorated for households amid slowing economic growth and persistently high inflation that suggests stagflation.
A new study lends credibility to the current souring macroeconomic backdrop of high inflation and shortages, altering consumer lifestyles, behavior changes, and expectations, all of which show "Bidenomics" could be one greatest failures since the Carter administration of 1977-1981.
Provident Bank, based in New Jersey, found that 83% of respondents slashed personal spending due to soaring prices of food and gasoline, with 23% indicating they had to make "drastic changes" to their spending for financial survival.
According to the survey results of 600 adults, 10.5% of respondents eliminated all non-essential purchases, and nearly 72% said they made at least some changes to personal travel habits.
While some consumers have cut back on some non-essential spending, like dining out and unnecessary travel, others reported much more drastic changes such as skipping meals, conserving water, and eliminating meat from their diets. People are feeling an immense amount of financial pressure right now. Unfortunately, this is not surprising after the Labor Department reported earlier this month that the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 40-year high in May. — Provident Bank
Respondents said rising prices of groceries and gas had put the most significant dent in their pocketbooks. According to the survey results, 53% said they now spend between $101 – $500 more per month on groceries, and 32% spend between $101 – $250 more on gas. They also said that skyrocketing prices of baby products, meat, utilities, household goods, milk, and alcohol have led to economic discomfort.
There's no question this survey outlines consumers are being squeezed by negative real wage growth and inflation at 40-year highs. Many folks have maxed out credit cards and drained personal savings. Much of this economic despair has sent consumer sentiment crashing:
The third reading of Q1 GDP on Wednesday said it all: personal consumption growth has collapsed.
High inflation plus a rapidly slowing economy could be the emergence of stagflation, a dangerous economic environment that the
The S&P 500 gained 6.4% last week, the second-best post-pandemic performance for the large-cap index. For a moment there, we were out of bear-market territory, bouncing to an 18.5% decline from all-time highs. Now, it’s a bear market again ¯\_(?)_/¯
All silliness aside, calls for a bottom appear premature.
Michael Cembalest and his team did some work on what you want to be on the lookout for, and we’re not there qui...
Recession Resistant General Mills Rockets Higher Outlook
We’ve been interested in General Mills (NYSE:GIS) for some time now and we couldn’t be happier with the FQ4 2022 results. The company not only beat on the top and bottom line but issued favorable guidance in the face of mounting economic headwinds. The takeaway here is that defensive consumer staple stocks like General Mills are among the best positioned for today’s times and General Mills is among the best picks. Trading at only 18.5X it’s earnings outlook the stock is undervalued relative to its peers while paying an ...
One of the most frequent questions tossed around Wall Street trading desks (and strip clubs), and which was duly covered by Bloomberg recently in "Fear Has Gone Missing in Wall Street’s Slow-Motion Bear Market", is why despite the crushing bear market and the coming recession, does the VIX refuse to rise sustainably above 30, or in other words, why is the VIX so low?
As Goldman's Rocky Fishman wrote in a recent note "Option Markets Ta...
Russia’s war against Ukraine is pressing into its fifth month – despite several rounds of failed peace talks, and Western countries’ issuing severe economic sanctions against Russia.
The war isn’t happening just on Ukrainian soil. President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda is propelling...
Gold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.
Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?
1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold. 2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.
A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All ...
For many parents of kids under age 5, a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine could not come soon enough. A full year and a half after shots first became available for adults, their wait is nearly over.
On June 17, 2022, the Food and Drug Administration ...
Phil gave an excellent, educational presentation called "Be the House Not the Gambler: Using Stock Options to Significantly Boost Your Portfolio Performance" at the FinTwit Conference hosted by Lupton Capital and Benzinga on May 14 in Las Vegas. The video is set to start playing at 5:30:45, when Phil takes the stage (but you can see previous presentations by backtracking).
AGENDA
9:00 AM Opening Remarks with Jonah Lupton, Entrepreneur & Investor
9:05 AM Wagging the Dog: How to Profit From Derivative Driven Moves in the Market with Steven Place, Founder, Investingwithoptions.com
10:00 AM The MarketWebs & The Path of Least Resistance, Christian Fromhertz, CEO, The Tribeca Trade Group
10:55 AM Fireside Chat with Gareth Mann, Founder & CEO, AlphaStream & Spencer Israel, Executive Producer, Benzinga
11:25 AM Sponsor Pitch: Carolyn Bao, VP of Marke...
The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt
On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...
The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign.
Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.