Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

China’s Yuan Is Now Plunging Faster Than During 2015′s Devaluation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Another China open, another lower renminbi fix, and another 2 handle plunge in offshore Yuan…

The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate for the yuan (dark red line in the chart above) weaker than the psychological level of 6.7 per dollar for the first time since August 2017, suggesting officials are comfortable with the pace of depreciation amid a trade dispute with the US.

Offshore yuan is now at 12-month lows, down almost 9% from the March highs and collapsing at an annualized pace of around 30%!! That is a faster plunge than the 2015 post-devaluation slide (which was around a 23% annualized slide)…

It does make one wonder how long this will last before it starts to ripple across the Pacific?

Or are Chinese Yuan sellers using their newly acquired dollars to buy S&P calls?

Strangest Things: America Is ‘The Upside Down’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Doug ‘Uncola’ Lynn via,

Why should Trump give any credence to the intelligence agencies who first tried to prevent, and later subvert, his presidency?

You may not be able to alter reality, but you can alter your attitude towards it, and this, paradoxically, alters reality. Try it and see.

– Margaret Atwood

The above quote, attributed to the author of “The Handmaid’s Tale”, is seemingly representative of the elite establishment today in their dystopian zeal to erase the presidency of Donald Trump.  How? By means of manufacturing an Attitudinal New Reality complete with Orwellian-style and Twilight Zone-type narratives reminiscent of the “Upside Down” , the other-worldly dimension of Netflix’s “Stranger Things”.

Of course, where we are today was likely inevitable from the start.

When businessman Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President of the United States, he was ridiculed by the political establishment, Hollywood, and the Corporate Mainstream Media.  When it appeared that he could actually win, the U.S. Intelligence Agencies, under President Obama, spied on Candidate Trump and set up members of his team for a grand scheme of entrapment arranged by former CIA Director, and perjurist, John Brennan; even as corrupt high-ranking officials in the FBI, like James Comey, arranged for Hillary Clinton’s crimes to be swept under the political rug.

Soon, we heard about wiretaps at Trump Tower and illegal unmasking by former National Security Director Susan Rice, even as Wikileaks released the password to Vault 7, also known as: “The Largest Ever Publication of Confidential CIA Documents” where a program entitled UMBRAGE was revealed. It was a formerly top-secret initiative whereby American intelligence agencies could mimic internet hacks from other countries, including Russia.

Unsurprisingly, the alleged mastermind behind “Vault 7 was recently indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice after being arrested for child porn on his computer, just as the Pakistani-Intelligence operative , Imran Awan, was let off the hook by an Obama appointed judge; because there was “no evidence” that congressional computer systems were compromised by Awan after a Democratic Party caucus server was replaced by a look-alike.

Paradoxically even WikiLeaks now says the murder of Democratic National Committee employee, Seth Rich, has been contradicted by Rod Rosenstein’s “July 2018 indictment of 12 Russian military intelligence agents”:

The [Seth Rich] murder

continue reading

IBM “Beats” Thanks To Near Record Low Tax Rate As Revenue Barely Grows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After years of declining revenues, IBM finally posted its first revenue increase at the end of the last year, an inflection point which may have marked the low point for the company, notorious for its accounting gimmicks and pro forma adjustments. And now, in its Q2 2018 earnings report, IBM continued this trend of revenue growth, posting its third consecutive quarter of revenue growth.

In the second quarter, the company reported non-GAAP EPS of $3.08, up 5% Y/Y and beating expectations of $3.04 (not to be confused with GAAP EPS as noted below). Revenue of $20.0 billion was also better than the expected $19.9 billion, and a 4% increase to the $19.3BN reported last year. This was the third straight quarter of revenue growth after 5 years of declines, if a decline from last quarter’s 5.2% revenue growth.

Broken down, revenue was mixed:

  • Cognitive solutions revenue $4.6 billion, unchanged Y/Y
  • Global business services revenue $4.2 billion, up 2% Y/Y
  • Technology services & cloud platforms revenue $8.6 billion, up 2% Y/Y
  • Systems revenue $2.2 billion, up 25%

Even when looking at IBM’s tax rate, where IBM traditionally engages in accounting magic, things appeared to be normalizing, as the non-GAAP effective tax rate was a respectable, for IBM, 16%.

All of the above was great news and would have sent the stock soaring. Only, it was not meant to be, because a closer look once again revealed some of the company’s traditional dirty laundry.

First, while IBM did report 4% revenue growth Y/Y in Q2, this was only if one excludes currency impact, something which IBM always says to include. And, as IBM disclosed in its report, revenue growth was only 2% Y/Y when adjusted for currency.

Going down the income statement reveals that gross profit declined Y/Y, dropping from 46.5% in Q2 2017 to 46.0% this quarter on a GAAP basis.  Even on an adjusted basis, the profit margin dropped, printing at 46.5%, down 0.6% Y/Y.

Finally, while an improvement from last quarter’s bizarre -47.5%, IBM’s effective GAAP tax rate was once again surprisingly depressed, at just 13.5%, well below the non-GAAP 16.0% reported. The delta in the tax rate once again meant the difference between IBM beating on EPS, and missing.

Meanwhile, coming well below the non-GAAP print, Q2 GAAP EPS was $2.61,…
continue reading

US Stocks Extend Gains As Yuan Tumbles To 12-Month Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Equity markets just keep speeding along…

China had an ugly night…

Europe was flat and U.S. equities were mixed, with financials and industrials pacing gains in the S&P and Dow, while the Nasdaq lagged. Trannies were best (best day in 3 months) - soaring over 2% thanks to United boosting airlines and CSX beating on earnings.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony didn’t influence markets, as he mirrored Tuesday’s remarks in delivering an upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy.

Futures show once again the overnight drift and then panic-bid for US equities at the US open…

VIX closed with an 11 handle for the first time in a month…

So far in July, the major market indices have not had back-to-back losses…

Don’t forget, it’s that time of the month…

Netflix limped lower, back towards its 50DMA…

GOOGL bucked the trend of weakness in the FANGs today (despite its huge fine)…

Yields started to play catch up to the recent equity exuberance today…

Treasury yields were mixed today with some steepening as 30Y Yields rose…

2s30s steepened notably…

The Dollar ended higher on the day but roundtripped back lower after overnight gains…

Meanwhile, the offshore yuan tumbled to fresh cycle lows (12-month lows)…

NOTE – the two rectangles are the same size and time period…

Is the capital flooding out of China and into US stocks?

Cryptos were mixed today with Ethereum lower and Bitcoin higher (Bitcoin’ best week since 2017)…

Despite record crude production and a huge surprise crude inventory build, WTI rallied, bouncing off its 100DMA…

Gold and Bitcoin were generally flat today…

Finally, we note more weak ‘hard’; data today from the housing sector this time as soft surveys remain ebullient…

Papa John’s Shares Soar On Report Ousted Founder Held Merger Talks With Wendy’s

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Papa John’s stock is sharply higher following a WSJ report that its founder and recently ousted chairman John Schnatter, held merger talk with Wendy’s. And while the talks between Wendy’s officials and the disgraced former Chairman and CO – who still sits on the board and owns 29% of Papa John’s – were preliminary and began before he stepped down as chairman last week, the talks, which Papa John’s board was aware of according to the WSJ, have cooled since the incident, one of the people said.

Schnatter resigned last week as chairman after it emerged that he had used a racial slur during media training to prepare him for a return as brand spokesman following his withdrawal from ads in the wake of a dust-up with the National Football League.

Schnatter blamed the chain’s sliding sales on declining TV football viewership amid the controversy over players’ national-anthem protests. He remains on the board which does not have the authority to remove him as a director and it will be up to shareholders whether to re-elect him at the next annual meeting in May.

While it is unclear if a deal will happen following the preliminary talks, and the recent scandal involving the pizza chain, PZZA shares rose as much as 7% on the news; WEN rose as much as 4.7%.

Citadel CEO Says Bitcoin Still A “Head Scratcher” But Billionaire Lasry Sees $40,000 Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Ken Griffin, the CEO and founder of the Citadel hedge fund, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with CNBC this morning.

Speaking at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York, CoinTelegraph’s Helen Partz reports that Griffin admitted that he “still scratch[es] [his] head” about Bitcoin, claiming that the younger generation should “do something more productive than invest in digital currencies.”

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

To prove his point of view, the billionaire pointed out that none of his clients have ever suggested investing in cryptocurrencies:

“I don’t have a single portfolio manager who has told me we should buy crypto, not a single portfolio manager.”

Griffin further declared that his company is having a “hard time” deciding whether it should be a liquidity provider for a product that he “[does not] believe in,” adding

“There’s no need for cryptocurrencies. They’re a solution in search of a problem.”

In late 2017, Citadel’s Griffin had made a similar statement about Bitcoin, comparing the top cryptocurrency with the “Dutch tulip bulb mania” in the 1600s and noting that “these bubbles tend to end in tears. And I worry about how this bubble might end.”

Founded by Griffin in 1990, the Citadel hedge fund manages over $30 billion of assets. The global financial institution is one of the oldest hedge funds in the world, being only one of three percentof hedge funds that have been working for more than 20 years.

Others on Wall Street have embraced cryptocurrencies in their turn. Earlier this week, the world’s largest largest asset manager BlackRock announced it is setting up a working group to estimate the benefits of involvement in Bitcoin, a turn away from the company’s previous critical stance on cryptocurrency.

And last week, billionaire Steven Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management hedge fund reportedly invested in the Autonomous Partners crypto and blockchain-focused hedge fund.

And, as CoinTelegraph’s William Suberg notes, Avenue Capital Group co-founder Marc Lasry has said that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is going to hit $40,000 in bullish comments to CNBC this morning.

Marc Lasry: I’m personally invested around 1% in bitcoin from CNBC.

Speaking in an interview…
continue reading

Bitcoin, Blockchain, And The Re-Ordering Of Political & Financial Power

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Crypto-blockchain technologies are leveraging the potential of computers and the web for direct political-social innovation.

We’re accustomed to three basic templates for system-wide solutions or improvements:

1. an individual “builds a better mousetrap” and starts a company to exploit this competitive advantage;

2. a company invents something that spawns a new industry (the photocopier, the web browser, for example) and/or disrupts existing business models;

3. the central government decrees a strategy or investment, i.e. makes something happen (the Interstate Highway system in the 1950s, the space race to the moon in the 1960s, for example).

I don’t think any of these templates really captures the eventual impact of cryptocurrencies and blockchains, which I define broadly as any decentralized, distributed ledger.

As for the better mousetrap-- the creators of bitcoin explicitly designed a form of money that they reckoned was superior to centrally controlled fiat currency. A decentralized form of money that isn’t borrowed into existence like fiat currencies is certainly revolutionary, but that is only one aspect of the crypto-blockchain technology.

Since bitcoin and the blockchain technology behind it aren’t owned by a corporation, the template of a company benefiting from disrupting existing business models (for example, Apple’s iPod, iTunes and iPhone) doesn’t fit.

It’s certainly true that cryptos and blockchain are spawning a new industry, much like micro-processors and digital memory launched the computer revolution and the world wide web and its protocols launched the Internet revolution.

There are between 1,600 and 1,900 cryptocurrencies and tokens based on them, and hundreds of enterprises are developing applications for blockchain and related technologies.

The difference between these old templates and the crypto-blockchain technologies is these have explicit social and political applications and ramifications--consequences that cannot be mapped onto consumer product innovation or process innovations such as increasing computational power.

These technologies have the potential to re-order the structure and processes of governance and of social relations. In this way, crypto-blockchain technologies are leveraging the potential of computers and the web for direct political-social innovation.

Here’s an example (described in an email to me from Decred’s lead developer, Jake Yocom-Piatt) of a software platform that is not connected to a cryptocurrency that could be applied to the kinds of decentralized governance, community development, guaranteed paid work and markets that I describe in…
continue reading

An Optimist’s View Of The End Of America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by James Altucher via Laissez Faire blog,

I’m often accused of being too much of an optimist.

When someone tells me, “Global warming will destroy the Earth,” I think, Good thing people are working on alt-energy solutions.

When someone tells me, “Automation will crush jobs,” I think, Well, look at what happened when ATMs supposedly were going to replace bank tellers. Nothing. The cost savings created a bank on every corner.

If someone says, “What about American debt rising so much?” I go through the basic math:

  • The U.S. is $21 trillion in debt

  • But the U.S. just has to pay $300 billion a year to service that debt. That’s only 7% of GDP, down from 17% in the mid-’90s. So we’re actually financially healthier than we were 20 years ago

  • If you subtract out what the U.S. owes the U.S. (yes, we owe money to ourselves), then the national debt is just $13 trillion and our debt obligations go down to about 3% or 4%.

If your salary was $100,000 and you had to pay just $4,000 a year to service all of your debt, you would say, “No problem.”

Let’s take on more debt.

And yet… I think America is DOOMED. And I think there’s no solution for the country.

There are only so many flowers you can plant over s**t. Eventually the whole thing smells like s**t.

If you’re going to survive with your finances intact, you need to know just how doomed we are.

The Disastrous Government Backing of Student Loans

Trouble started with the Higher Education Act of 1965.

It has a seemingly fine and generous idea: Let’s help the less fortunate get a higher education so they can be more competitive.

I love this idea. The intention is sound.

But unfortunately it failed due to corruption, lousy economics and lack of understanding of basic finance.

Price of Tuition

Since 1965, the price of tuition has gone up HIGHER THAN INFLATION every single year (EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.) by an average of 9%.

By comparison, medical care costs have gone up faster than inflation by an average of 5% every year.

Since the government is backing the loans, college presidents are simply charging more without thinking about the future consequences of the country OR OF THE STUDENTS…
continue reading

The MoneyTalk Portfolio – June 17, 2018 update

Money Talk Portfolio Review:   I am doing the show tomorrow so I have to put this together first.  Sadly, we dropped a lot since our June 14th review, when we were at $92,727 (85.5%) but now down to $84,300 (68.6%), mostly due to LB's pullback and our inability to roll SQQQ like we did in the STP/OOP.  Nonetheless, up 68.6% since Sept doesn't suck and now we can make some adjustments! 

I'm a bit concerned about the rest of the summer so we're going to be cautious – especially with these gains to lock in. 

  • ALK – I'm very confident in the next $51.80 entry so no change here.  Earnings are 7/26 so we'll watch those carefully but expectations are low (about $1.65) and they made $2.51 last Q2, so I'm only worried about guidance.  Anticipate making $3,725 more on this one.
  • IMAX – Lots of blockbusters ahead should be good for them but this spread is well in the money and can be cashed out for $8.80/4.10 for net $4.70 ($9,400) out of a possible $5 so it's not worth the risk as we can't make interim adjustments so we'll take the profit off the table.  
  • SQQQ – We still need a hedge and

continue reading

Fed: “When The Yield Curve Creates Doubt, Throw It Out”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Alt-Market’s Brandon Smith, originally published at Birch Gold Group,

A few weeks ago we reported the Fed was getting hawkish despite what they were calling “low inflation.”

In that article, we showed rates possibly being raised more than 4 times in 2019. But more importantly, we warned that anyone investing in the market should start preparing to expect the unexpected.

And right now, it looks like the Fed’s bizarre moves are continuing.

This time it involves the yield curve. The yield curve represents the difference in interest rate paid on short-term Treasury notes and long-term Treasury notes in the bond market.

A common signal of economic health from the bond market involves looking at the difference between the 2-year and 10-year rates (also called the “spread”).

Over the last three decades, when 2-year yields are lower than the 10-year bond yields, it signaled a healthy economic outlook.

But when that “spread” shrinks, the yield curve is said to be flattening. If it “reverses” entirely, the yield curve is inverted (or negative).

Since 1980, an inverted yield curve preceded an economic recession with reliable accuracy.

So the yield curve is a fairly reliable signal for imminent recession. And notice the downward trend of the yield curve on the right side of the graph. That indicates a flattening yield curve heading towards inversion.

And when we zoom in, the picture looks even more dire.

As of July 18th, 2018 the Treasury reported the difference between the 2-year and 10-year bonds to be 24 basis points (or 0.24% – see green line in the chart below).

This is the lowest spread since the 2008 Great Recession, and already much lower than the historical graph above.

There is no doubt the yield curve is flattening, and at an alarming pace.

Taking the historical data into account, if this trend continues and it does invert, that would be a signal of an imminent recession.

And one more Fed rate hike could invert it, according to

But strangely, it looks like the Fed wants to sweep the yield curve signal under the rug.

Fed: “When the Yield Curve Creates Doubt, Throw it Out”

So as the curve flattens, and gets ready to signal a recession, at a recent FOMC presentation the Fed examined the prospect of replacing it.

Wolf Richter …
continue reading


Zero Hedge

China's Yuan Is Now Plunging Faster Than During 2015's Devaluation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Another China open, another lower renminbi fix, and another 2 handle plunge in offshore Yuan...

The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate for the yuan (dark red line in the chart above) weaker than the psychological level of 6.7 per dollar for the first time since August 2017, ...

more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Sacha Baron Cohen: is he wrong to make fools of the unwitting?


Sacha Baron Cohen: is he wrong to make fools of the unwitting?

Image courtesy of Channel 4

Courtesy of Ian Wilkie, University of Salford

“There is no such thing as bad publicity,” as the 19th-century showman and godfather of fake publicity P T Barnum may (or may not) have once said. But some high-ranking politicos caught up in Sacha Baron Cohen’s new television comedy venture, Who is America?, already appear to be regretting the publicity that their participation has generated.

The show repeats Baron Cohen’s now-familiar faux naïve presenter shti...

more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • RBC Capital raised the price target on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) from $38 to $42. CF Industries shares closed at $42.73 on Tuesday.
  • Wedbush raised Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) price target from $65 to $77. Tractor Supply shares closed at $78.92 on Tuesday.
  • Wells Fargo lowered the price target for Visteon Corporation (NASDAQ: VC) from $146 to $137. Visteon shares closed at $131.71 on Tuesday.
  • Oppenheimer raised S... more from Insider

Chart School

S&P Firms Breakout As Tech Keep The Pressure On

Courtesy of Declan.

Given overnight news and Netflix disappointment I was surprised to see markets finish as strong as they did given comments on the economy by the Fed Chairman.

The S&P opened at support and 'engulfed' the prior day's trading; it's not a true bullish engulfing pattern as this is a reversal pattern and what we have is a breakout but it does contribute to a confirmation of the breakout.

The Dow Jones is inching towards channel resistance. In the context of other indices, it was a low key day...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Explodes Through Key Technical Resistance, Hits 7-Week High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin has suddenly exploded over 10% higher, smashing through its 50-day moving average, above $7000 for the first time since early June...

BTC is now testing up towards its 100DMA, ramping over $600 in 30 minutes...

And breaking its longer-term downtrend too...

The rest of the crypto space has gone along for the ride... ...

more from Bitcoin


How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...

more from M.T.M.


Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...

more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!


The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting


The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...

more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

more from Our Members


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>