Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Rabobank: “So, It Was Right Not To ‘Buy The Dip’?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

So it was right not to “buy the dip”. 

Virus cases continue to escalate almost everywhere that already had them, despite government lockdowns, and nobody and nowhere is proving immune. Iran’s Vice-President is infected and their ambassador to the Vatican has just died from it; now the Pope is feeling ill, if not necessarily with COVID-19.

Nigeria has its first case, which could mean havoc for that economy with its lack of healthcare facilities. New Zealand has an Iran-linked case. Lithuania has a case. The Netherlands has its first case. Germany and Spain are seeing more and more cases, and Italy is up to 528 with 17 deaths. Even in South Korea, being held up as a benchmark of how a developed economy with full data transparency and rapid, wide virus testing can respond, the number of new cases continues to rise. It’s also worth noting that while China is seeing fewer new cases—apparently--it is also seeing dozens of deaths each day (now 2,788 with 44 just added). That makes COVID-19 look more and more deadly as the epidemic data move around. The WHO helpfully stress that this “could get out of control” but still isn’t a global pandemic…so closing down global travel is not a solution.

In hindsight, and not being the head of a World Health Organisation, might I ask if perhaps having done so a month ago might have done the trick?

But too late.

We now also see panic and confusion in parts of the US: dozens have now tested positive in California, with reports of potential virus patients being treated by staff without protective suits, while in Hawaii there has been panic buying reported. The new “Virus Czar” Mike Pence has also just appointed some very old faces, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Economic Advisor Larry “airtight” Kudlow, to help him out: because of their vast professional experience in epidemiology and virus science, obviously. As we see ever-increasing virus circles, does that ever-decreasing pool of White House talent inspire confidence? Not so much, despite President Trump’s confident assertion that he is doing an “incredible” job.

After all, even his


continue reading





Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

 

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

Secret Cinema’s production of Moulin Rouge. Secret Cinema

Courtesy of Sarah Atkinson, King's College London and Helen W. Kennedy, University of Nottingham

Disney’s recent deal with the immersive experience company Secret Cinema signals a new era for the cinema industry. New film titles from the Disney portfolio will be staged as immersive experiences in London by Secret Cinema later in 2020 before being exported to America.

Secret Cinema is renowned for its expanded immersive cinematic worlds staged in a variety of disused warehouses and open-air locations, creating experiences that last for several hours. Costumed participants surrender their phones and interact with characters from the film the event is based on and with each other. This all leads up to an augmented screening of the film.

Trends suggest that investors see immersive experiences as a hot sector, so the economic and cultural implications of this deal for the US$160 billion (£123 billion) global sector are huge. The unique combination of Disney’s global reach and the successful track record of Secret Cinema means that this powerful partnership will shape the global direction of the immersive experience economy for years to come.

This is a sector that favours experience over product. What began in live music, festivals and sporting events has spread to all aspects of the leisure economy. Dining out, shopping and film going have all been made into engaging experiences – and the more immersive and escapist, the better.

Secret Cinema has been building its brand since 2007 when it started with small, underground and clandestine events such as for the indie film Paranoid Park in a disused railway tunnel. As the operation grew, Secret Cinema productions gradually became big box office events and they have repeatedly found themselves towards the top of the box office charts, even when staging events based around films that are over 20 years old.

Secret Cinema has also been pioneering large-scale event-led distribution strategies for new releases, from a production of Ridley Scott’s 2012 film Prometheus to coincide with the movie’s premiere, to most recently (in 2017)…
continue reading





“The Markets Are Really Panicking”: VIX Explodes, Markets Crash In Worst Week Since Lehman

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Friday's market performance has traditionally been the weakest, even during the meltup phase ahead of the recent coronacrash, and as such it will probably not come as a surprise that today's overnight rout which followed the biggest 6-day correction from a peak for the S&P on record…

… has accelerated only this time without even a casual attempt to buy the dip, with the S&P plunge accelerating, and briefly dipping below 2,800. As shown in the chart below, the S&P is now down over 13% from its Friday high, and the selloff shows no signs of abating as both man and machine are now openly dumping risk as the coronavirus epidemic gets worse by the day.

Futures on American gauges were all down at least 0.8%, a more modest drop than elsewhere in the world, but still suggesting U.S. stocks will retreat for a seventh straight session, cementing the worst week since the global financial crisis. Wall Street shares plunged 4.4% on Thursday alone, the largest fall since the August 2011 US downgrade. Futures pointed to a modest 1% drop later, but the S&P 500 has lost 12% since hitting a record high just nine days ago, putting it in so-called correction territory

"Investors are trying to price in the worst-case scenario and the biggest risk is what happens now in the United States and other major countries outside of Asia," said SEI Investments Head of Asian Equities John Lau. "These are highly uncertainty times, no one really knows the answer and the markets are really panicking."

And as the accelerating global coronavirus panic sent world stock markets skidding again on Friday into an angry sea of red…

…compounding their worst crash since the 2008 global financial crisis and pushing the week’s wipeout in value terms to $5 trillion. MSCI’s all-country world index, which tracks almost 50 countries, was down more than 1% ahead of U.S. trading and almost 10% for the week – the worst since October 2008.

the VIX exploded, with equity


continue reading





“Hundreds Of Millions Of Dollars Lost” As Shipping Rates Collapse Due To “Hugely Disruptive” Virus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Covid-19's effect on the global economy, energy markets, and the shipping industry have been absolutely disastrous, borderline crisis, if not, has already triggered the onset of the next financial crisis. 

OPEC slashed its oil demand forecast earlier this month, and Goldman Sachs doubled down on its bearish oil take and has cut its oil price target by $10 to $53 for the year, as a result of a "demand shock" that has collapsed Chinese oil demand by at least 20%, or as much as 4 million barrels per day.

The plunge in energy demand in China, which by the way, is the world's largest oil importer, has stranded oil cargoes off the coast of the country and led to an oil tanker parking lot in Asia Pacific waters. 

The gears of the global economy have jammed, as demand and supply shocks from China risks triggering the next economic crisis. 

Paralysis is quickly developing across the global economy, as sea and land ports in China have reduced activity. When supply chains are severed, economies on both sides of the world are damaged. 

International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) Secretary-General Guy Platten told Reuters on Wednesday that revenue shocks have already hurt shippers this year. 

Platten said tanker rates had plunged upwards of 80% since the virus outbreak began last month. 

He said the virus is "hugely disruptive" for the shipping industry as demand for raw materials from emerging and developed economies has dramatically slowed. 

"On the finished goods side of it you've got empty containers for example in China and you've got a shortage of containers in the (United) States because the manufactured goods are not getting out of China and being transported around the world. It's affecting all the supply chain throughout the shipping industry," he said.

Platten said shipping rates have crashed in various vessel classes. "We know that container lines are doing empty sailings. It would be hundreds of hundreds of millions of dollars (that) would be in jeopardy now." 

"All we know


continue reading





US Personal Incomes Grow At Fastest Pace Since 2018, Spending Growth Slows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amid all the carnage, a sliver of good news is that incomes jumped more than expected in January (+0.6% MoM vs +0.4% MoM) and while economists will be gravely disappointed spending rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% MoM) prompting a healthy rise in the savings rate from 7.5% to 7.9%…

This is the biggest jump in incomes since Dec 2018 and spending growth was the weakest since Feb 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

On a year-over-year basis, December saw a big surge (due to Dec 2018's stocks-market-plunge-driven collapse in spending) and January saw that give back some as incomes grew at 4.0% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the picture was mixed with private workers wage growth slowing compared to rising government worker wage growth…

Finally, we note that The Fed's favored inflation indicator – PCE Core Deflator – rose to +1.63% YoY (though less than expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, all of this data is 'old' and hit before the impacts of Covid-19 really started.

 





2 California Community College Students Exposed To Mystery Coronavirus Patient; S.Korea Nears 1,000 New Cases In 48 Hours: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Nigeria confirms first case
  • South Korea reports 256 new cases
  • WHO says outbreak in Iran likely worse than official numbers suggest; outbreak could go in "any direction"
  • Cali monitoring 8400, 28 cases in the state
  • China reports 327 new cases and 44 new deaths on Thursday
  • Dozens of hospital staffers who treated US coronavirus patient with 'unknown' origin being 'monitored'
  • Facebook cancels annual 'F8' developers' conference
  • 700 in New York asked to 'self-isolate'
  • Iran confirms 26 deaths, vice president for women and family affairs infected
  • The Netherlands has confirmed its first case
  • Northern Ireland confirms first case
  • Norway confirms three new cases
  • Germany confirms 14 new cases
  • Lagarde: Not yet time for ECB to intervene to fight economic backlash of outbreak
  • HHS says risk to public remains "low"
  • Italy reports 3 more deaths, bringing total to 17; total cases hit 650
  • Pence, Azar appoint Mnuchin, Kudlow & Surgeon General Adams to Coronavirus Task Force
  • Starbucks says it has reopened 85% of Chinese restaurants
  • Azar: Sonoma case might be 'community transmission'
  • Salvini meets with Italian president amid national unity government speculation
  • South Korean new cases surpass China's new cases as SK confirms 505 new cases
  • China, Japan close school nationwide
  • CDC fears 'community outbreak' in Sonoma County after discovering first US case of "unknown origin"
  • CDC says patient from Solano county
  • Saudi Arabia suspends pilgrimages to Holy Sites
  • Hawaiian Airlines suspends service to South Korea
  • Brazil's neighbors take steps to keep virus out

* * *

Update (2008): South Korea reported 256 newly confirmed cases in its first update of the day on Friday (this week, health officials have been updating the count every 12 hours or so). The new batch brings the small East Asian country's total to 2,022, and also puts South Korea on track to confirm more than 1,000 new cases in 48 hours.

There has been a flurry


continue reading





Hyundai Halts Production At Major South Korean Plant After Worker Tests Positive For Coronavirus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Hyundai Motor Company halted operations at its Ulsan, South Korea, manufacturing complex's second factory on Friday after a worker tested positive for Covid-19, disrupting production lines of its sport utility vehicles, reported Reuters.

According to the automaker, "colleagues who came in close contact with the infected employee" have been placed in "self-quarantine" and are being "tested for possible infection."

It's just the latest indication of the massive economic toll that the coronavirus is having on the already-struggling South Korean economy, which was already mired in a trade dispute with Japan before the virus arrived.

Hyundai is "thoroughly" disinfecting the facility and has given no indication of when production might resume.

The plant is known for producing the company's immensely popular SUV models, including the GV80, Palisade, Santa Fe, and Tucson, turning out roughly 1,000 cars per day. The company has five factories in the area, with an annual production capacity of 1.4 million vehicles, or about 30% of its global production.

Despite a virus-infected employee (and who knows how many others…), Hyundai has also been struggling with severed supply chains involving suppliers from China, which is why the company chose to idle some Ulsan plants earlier this month.

Samsung announced last weekend that its smartphone factory in Gumi-si, South Korea, closed because of a virus outbreak at the factory.

Last week, chipmaker SK Hynix, a key Apple supplier, reported a virus infection case, resulting in one of its factories to shut down and 800 employees told not to return to work for several weeks as a preventative measure to stop the spread of the virus.

Major factory shutdowns of automobile and electronic companies across South Korea are coming at a time when the global outbreak's center of gravity is shifting from Wuhan, China, to Daegu, South Korea.

South Korea has confirmed nearly 600 more cases of the virus on Friday, bringing its total to 2,337, making it the largest outbreak outside of mainland China.

Now that the virus is quickly spreading in South


continue reading





Coronavirus Cases Surge Across Europe As Nigeria Confirms First Case South Of The Sahara: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

On Wednesday, the coronavirus outbreak reached a new milestone when the number of new cases confirmed in the world ex-China finally surpassed the number being confirmed on the mainland. Two days later, and we're almost at the point where the number of Thursday new cases confirmed by Iran was roughly half the total coming out of Wuhan.

As of Friday morning, the number of confirmed cases worldwide had passed 83,000, while the number of deaths topped 2,800.

Since yesterday, we we first noted this chart, the number of cases outside China has soared, particularly in South Korea and across Europe, as the number of new cases in mainland China (but outside Wuhan) dropped into the single digits. Vietnam joined the group of countries restricting South Koreans from entry, announcing Friday that it would stop issuing visas for South Koreans, according to CNN.

Of course, China still had nearly two months of lead time over the rest of the world, and it has been home to the bulk of cases so far.

Here's a rundown of deaths outside mainland China:

Iran: 34

Italy 17

South Korea: 14

Japan: 10 

Hong Kong and France: 2 each

The Philippines and Taiwan: 1 each

A WHO Spokesman said Friday that the coronavirus outbreak is 'getting bigger', and that the possibility of it reaching some 'if not all countries' is something that we have warned about for a while.

Every Brooklyn hipster who's been living in blissful ignorance of the pandemic unfolding all around them – dismissing every new warning as 'racist right-wing alarmism' – is about to start paying attention: The dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to carry a "low level" of the deadly virus, according to a statement from the region's government.

Infographic: Where COVID-19 Has Been Confirmed in the U.S. | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

According to the New York Post, researchers tested the dog's nasal


continue reading





Coronavirus Cases Surge Across Europe As Hong Kong Dog Becomes First Pet To Test Positive: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

On Wednesday, the coronavirus outbreak reached a new milestone when the number of new cases confirmed in the world ex-China finally surpassed the number being confirmed on the mainland. Two days later, and we're almost at the point where the number of Thursday new cases confirmed by Iran was roughly half the total coming out of Wuhan.

As of Friday morning, the number of confirmed cases worldwide had passed 83,000, while the number of deaths topped 2,800.

Since yesterday, we we first noted this chart, the number of cases outside China has soared, particularly in South Korea and across Europe, as the number of new cases in mainland China (but outside Wuhan) dropped into the single digits.

Of course, China still had nearly two months of lead time over the rest of the world, and it has been home to the bulk of cases so far.

Every Brooklyn hipster who's been living in blissful ignorance of the pandemic unfolding all around them – dismissing every new warning as 'racist right-wing alarmism' – is about to start paying attention: The dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to carry a "low level" of the deadly virus, according to a statement from the region's government.

According to the New York Post, researchers tested the dog's nasal cavities and swabbed its mouth on Wednesday, and soon discovered that a test returned a "weak positive" for the samples.

"At present, the [Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department] does not have evidence that pet animals can be infected with COVID-19 virus or can be a source of infection to people," Hong Kong’s government said in a press release.

Don't worry, dog lovers: The animal is being quarantined in a animal shelter holding no other animals. The pooch will remain under quarantine until it tests negative. Fortunately, it doesn't appear to be showing symptoms.

South Korea has confirmed an additional 571 cases of the novel coronavirus so far on Friday, bringing its total to 2,337, making it the largest


continue reading





$5 Trillion Wiped Out From World Stocks Amid Fastest Collapse In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

MSCI World Stocks collapsed from a record high into 'correction' in just five days.

The plunge in global equities has wiped out more than $5 trillion in value, or equivalent to nearly Japan's annual GDP. 

On Thursday afternoon, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd said, "this is possibly the worst thing I have seen in my career… it's hard to imagine a scenario in which you can contain the virus threat," adding that "Europe and China are probably already in recession and US GDP will take a 1.5-2.0% hit." 

"The stock market could be down 15-20%… and would likely force The Fed's hand."

MSCI ACWI is a market capitalization-weighted index with broad equity market exposure across the world, plunged 10% in the last five days, its biggest drop since August 2011…

The Dow Jones just saw its fastest collapse from an all-time peak since 1928, just ahead of The Great Depression.

And the S&P 500 suffered its fastest peak-to-correction plunge ever

Perhaps record high valuations are unsustainable after all…

As for the Federal Reserve’s ‘Not QE’ last-ditch effort to prop the stock market up last fall, all equity gains have been erased.

As we noted yesterday, the worsening global threat from the virus prompted Goldman Sachs to revise its earnings growth story for 2020:

"US companies will generate no earnings growth in 2020. We have updated our earnings model to incorporate the likelihood that the virus becomes widespread. Our revised baseline EPS estimates are $165 in 2020 (previously $174) and $175 in 2021 (previously $183), representing 0% and 6% growth. Our reduced forecasts reflect the severe decline in Chinese economic activity in 1Q, lower end-demand for US exporters, supply chain disruption, a slowdown in US economic activity, and elevated uncertainty. Consensus forecasts imply EPS will climb 7% in 2020 and 11% in 2021." 

The drop in stocks shouldn't be a total surprised given the plunge in EPS expectations…

Global investors aren't waiting for economic data to hit to see how bad things have gotten since the virus has sent China into economic paralysis. They are selling first and asking questions later.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 02/28/2020 – 07:11





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Rabobank: "So, It Was Right Not To 'Buy The Dip'?"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

So it was right not to “buy the dip”. 

Virus cases continue to escalate almost everywhere that already had them, despite government lockdowns, and nobody and nowhere is proving immune. Iran’s Vice-President is infected and their ambassador to the Vatican has just died from it; now the Pope is feeling ill, if not necessarily with COVID-19.

Nigeria has its first case,...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema - watching movies will never be the same again

 

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

Secret Cinema’s production of Moulin Rouge. Secret Cinema

Courtesy of Sarah Atkinson, King's College London and Helen W. Kennedy, University of Nottingham

Disney’s recent deal with the immersive experience company Secret Cinema signals a new era for the cinema industry. New film titles from the Disne...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



more from Biotech

The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



more from Tech. Traders

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



more from ValueWalk

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.