King Dollar Created Multi-Year Topping Pattern?
by kimblechartingsolutions - September 20th, 2018 11:33 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The currency markets often play a role in asset management for investors. And one key asset that pays close attention to the US Dollar is Gold (and precious metals). Could a near-term trend change be in store for the US Dollar… and its counterpart, the Euro? Precious metals bulls would love to see the US Dollar topping and the Euro bottoming.
In the chart below, you can see that the two currencies are showing similar reversal patterns – a traditional head and shoulders top for the US Dollar Index and an inverted head and shoulders bottom for the Euro.
BUT, they need to confirm these pattern by breaking down / up.
It’s worth noting that NOTHING has been proved so far, but the potential of both creating longer-term reversal patterns is there and traders should stay tuned.
US Dollar vs Euro Currency Chart – Reversal Patterns?
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
This post was written for See It Markets.com. To see original article CLICK HERE
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Italy’s 5 Star Threatens To Ditch Coalition Over Budget Talks, Italian Bonds Slide
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 10:16 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
While the market turmoil over Italy's budget has quieted down in recent weeks as a result of soothing words by the ruling coalition that it would comply with European demands, that snapped moments ago when DPA reported that the leader of Italy's Five Star Movement has threatened to pull the plug on the country's populist government if it cannot find money to implement election campaign promises.
"If we do not find the resources to do what we have said, then it is better for us to go home, there is no point in scraping by," M5S leader and Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio told Radio 24.
As a result of budget limitations imposed by Brussels, the M5S and its coalition partner, the League, are struggling to find resources for three major pledges: cutting taxes, lowering the pension age and introducing basic income subsidies for the poor.
Di Maio's remarks piled pressure on Finance Minister Giovanni Tria, a technocrat who is resisting calls to increase the deficit because this could heighten the risk of a financial crisis.
"If we need a bit of deficit to improve the quality of life of Italians, we should remember that the priority is to improve the lives of Italians, not to reassure markets," Di Maio said. Risk indicators on Italy's sovereign bonds have surged in recent months, on the back of investors' fears of reckless public spending. Italy already has very high public debt.
As a reminder, the Italian government is supposed to set debt and deficit targets for next year by September 27, and to present detailed 2019 budget plans to the European Commission by October 15. Meanwhile, according to Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence consultancy, the M5S needs to score a political victory on the budget to make up for its declining popularity vis-a-vis the League.
In response to the news, Italian bonds fell with yields on 2Y bonds spiking.
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How Soon Will A.I. Replace All The Traders: Q&A With Gaurav Chakravorty, CIO Of Qplum
by ValueWalk - September 20th, 2018 10:13 am
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
VW: Tell our readers, what is Qplum?
Qplum is an AI-driven investment management firm. We manage money for individuals, families, and institutions. We actively manage investments using machine learning and deep learning technology.
Our three product lines are:
- Wealth, servicing the financial needs of individuals and families via separately managed accounts.
- Alpha, for institutional clients only, where we offer different products like GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation), managed futures program, etc. and
- Solutions, where we work on customized tactical asset allocation solutions for pension funds and family offices to target a dual loss-aversion and return-seeking investment mandate.
[REITs]
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Across all our product lines, the aim is to bring more transparency and efficiency to the investing process and reduce costs for the client through the use of A.I.
VW: Why did you start Qplum?
Before starting Qplum, I was in High-Frequency Trading.
I completed my Masters in Computer Science from the University of Pennsylvania, and my first job out of college was at Tower Research Capital. I became the youngest partner at Tower and I was able to set up one of the most profitable groups there. That journey convinced me that A.I. works if implemented well.
VW: There’s a lot of buzz around AI these days. How can one tell what’s real and what’s hype?
That’s true. Everyone wants to look smart. So companies generously use the terms “A.I.” and “machine learning” in their marketing materials. The good thing is, it’s easy to spot what’s real and what’s hype. You are either an A.I. driven firm or not – there is no middle ground. And the reason for that is the upfront costs along with a completely different system architecture needed to apply this technology in asset management.
An A.I. focused company will typically have these four things going for them:
- Strive to solve smaller problems as compared to a big-bang-solution. E.g., instead of trying to predict the market, at Qplum, we try to summarize the market and put systematic processes in place should things go wrong.
- Infrastructure that has the ability to run lots of simulations at a fast speed.
- Have a dedicated team for data support that works closely with the infrastructure team. Any machine learning strategy requires vast amounts of data and that means
…
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Existing Home Sales At Lowest In 30 Months, Inventories Rise First Time In 3 Years
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 10:08 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Following continued weakness in July, analysts once again hope for a rebound in home sales in August but once again they were disappointed. August existing home sales were unchanged from July's -0.7% drop, hovering at 5.34mm SAAR – the lowest since Feb 2016.
Expectations were for a 0.5% jump in August, but printed unchanged (home sales haven't seen a monthly increase since March)
Both single-family and multi-family units were unchanged in August as median prices dipped for the second month in a row (up 4.6% YoY still).
The West saw a 5.9% slump MoM in existing home sales as Northeast sales rose 7.6% MoM.
Inventory of available properties rose 2.7% y/y to 1.92m, which was the first increase in more than three years. At the current pace, it would take 4.3 months to sell the homes on the market, compared with 4.1 months a year earlier; Realtors group considers less than five months’ supply consistent with a tight market.
“While inventory continues to show modest year over year gains, it is still far from a healthy level and new home construction is not keeping up to satisfy demand,” said Yun.
“Homes continue to fly off the shelves with a majority of properties selling within a month, indicating that more inventory – especially moderately priced, entry-level homes – would propel sales.”
Hope is high for NAR however…
“There are buyers on the sidelines” ready to re-enter the market, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report.
“The housing market can turn for the better" as long as inventory continues to rise, he said.
And despite NAHB sentiment near cycle highs, homebuilder stocks and housing data continues to tumble…
Time for some rate-hikes, right?
“Rising interests rates along with high home prices and lack of inventory continues to push entry-level and first time home buyers out of the market,” said Yun.
“Realtors continue to report that the demand is there – that current renters want to become homeowners – but there simply are not enough properties available in their price range.”
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“Multiple Victims” Reported In Maryland Shooting
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 10:06 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Multiple people have been injured in a shooting in a business district in Aberdeen, Maryland. The attack occurred near the intersection of Spesutia Road and Perryman Road, according to the Harford County Sheriff's Office.
A church and a business park are near the area where the shooting was reported. It's not clear where the shooting took place.
Deputies were dispatched to the area – located roughly 30 miles from Baltimore – shortly after 9 am ET on Monday.
HCSO is investigating the report of shots fired in the area of Spesutia Road and Perryman Road. Please avoid the area. PIO is responding.
— Harford Sheriff (@Harford_Sheriff) September 20, 2018
Please follow HCSO here on Twitter or on Facebook for official and confirmed information regarding the shooting in the area of Spesutia and Perryman.
— Harford Sheriff (@Harford_Sheriff) September 20, 2018
We can confirm there was a shooting in the area of Spesutia Road and Perryman Road. Multiple victims. The situation is still fluid. Please avoid the area. Media staging area still TBD.
— Harford Sheriff (@Harford_Sheriff) September 20, 2018
Police are asking people to avoid the area.
As RT points out, Harford County was the scene of a mass shooting in October 2017, when 37-year-old Radee Labeeb Prince shot and killed three of his co-workers and injured two more at a granite fabricator in the town of Edgewood. He was eventually captured after an hours long manhunt.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates…
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How The Next Downturn Will Surprise Us: Global Markets Have Grown ‘Too Big To Fail’
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 9:50 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
By Ruchir Sharma, op-ed via The New York Times
Excerpt:
After the fall of Lehman Brothers 10 years ago, there was a public debate about how the leading American banks had grown “too big to fail.” But that debate overlooked the larger story, about how the global markets where stocks, bonds and other financial assets are traded had grown worrisomely large.
By the eve of the 2008 crisis, global financial markets dwarfed the global economy. Those markets had tripled over the previous three decades to 347 percent of the world’s gross economic output, driven up by easy money pouring out of central banks. That is one major reason that the ripple effects of Lehman’s fall were large enough to cause the worst downturn since the Great Depression.
Today the markets are even larger, having grown to 360 percent of global G.D.P., a record high. And financial authorities — trained to focus more on how markets respond to economic risk than on the risks that markets pose to the economy — have been inadvertently fueling this new threat.
Over the past decade, the world’s largest central banks — in the United States, Europe, China and Japan — have expanded their balance sheets from less than $5 trillion to more than $17 trillion in an effort to promote the recovery. Much of that newly printed money has found its way into the financial markets, where it often follows the path of least regulation.
Central bankers and other regulators have largely succeeded in containing the practice that caused disaster in 2008: risky mortgage lending by big banks. But with so much easy money sloshing around in global markets, new threats were bound to emerge — in places the regulators aren’t watching as closely.
Within the $290 trillion global financial markets, there are hundreds of new risks, pools of potentially troubled debt. Among the most troubling: corporate borrowers and so-called non-bank lenders all over the world.
* * *
Ruchir Sharma, the author of “The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World,” is chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
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Dow Takes Out January Record Highs: “Congratulations USA!”
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 9:37 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Thanks to investors buying the f**king trade tariff dip, The Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally taken out the January record highs…
Mission Accomplished…
The S&P 500 also pushed to new record highs…
And the president is paying attention…
S&P 500 HITS ALL-TIME HIGH Congratulations USA!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 20, 2018
Just one thing…
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What a Mike Bloomberg or Jamie Dimon Presidency Would Look Like
by ilene - September 20th, 2018 8:59 am
Courtesy of Pam Martens.
Illustration by Keith Seidel from Mike! Wall Street’s Mayor by Neil Fabricant
Michael Bloomberg served three terms as New York City’s Mayor from January 2002 to January 2014. In 2009, the New York Times reported that Bloomberg had spent “$261 million of his own money” in order to get elected to those three terms as Mayor. When Bloomberg took office, there was a two-term limit in place which had been voted on in public referendums in 1993 and 1996. But two years before Bloomberg’s second four-year term ended, he asked the City Council to repeal the two-term limit to allow him to serve a third term.
Because voters had already expressed their will in a public referendum twice, numerous members of the City Council felt it would be unethical for them to repeal that decision and that the matter should be determined by another voter referendum. But the City Council went forward with their vote in 2008, repealing the will of the people and giving Bloomberg his third term. The City Council’s vote was 29 in favor, 22 against. A Quinnipiac University poll at the time showed that 89 percent of New York City voters felt the issue should have been decided by a voter referendum, not the City Council.
That’s strike one against Bloomberg running for President – he’s not bothered at all about ignoring the will of the people, precisely the failing of the current occupant of the Oval Office. According to Forbes, Bloomberg’s current net worth is $52.4 billion. If he enjoys life in the White House, we have no idea how many billions he might decide to spend to try to repeal two-term limits for the Presidency.
Bloomberg also shares another Trump problem – he has massive business conflicts of interest. He owns both a business heavily linked to maintaining Wall Street’s goodwill and he owns a media outlet, Bloomberg News. The vast majority of Bloomberg’s wealth has come from leasing his Bloomberg market data and news terminals at a cost of approximately $24,000 per terminal per year to tens of thousands of Wall Street trading desks and global banks around the world.
Just how protective of Wall Street Bloomberg is…
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Here Comes Round 2: Tilray Set For Another Insane Day After Huge Premarket Swings
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 8:55 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Some have called it the "pot.com" mania and it was on full display yesterday with momentum frenzy stock du jour, Tilray, went absolutely berserk.
Bloomberg's Arie Shapira perhaps summarized the pot stock mania best, "with everyone and their mother either watching the madness unfold on their trading screens, trying to get a borrow to short the stock followed by relief that they never were able to short followed by wishing they were short all along, feeling major FOMO, or contemplating whether what they were witnessing was more like the crypto craze of last year, the freakouts from the rare earths (remember Molycorp?) to alternative energy and 3D printers at various points over the past 15 years, the dot com bubble, the tulip bulb crash of the 17th century, and so forth."
Stated less poetically, on Wednesday Tilray soared 94%, then wiped out the entire gain in under an hour, only to finish 40% higher than where it started, all in the span of 5 trading halts.
The fluctuations drew comparisons to the Bitcoin craze and the peak of the dot-com bubble. It also prompted many to ask the Fed if this was indicative of behavior of a market "without" asset bubbles.
Well, get ready for round two.
One day after Tilray took investors on "perhaps the wildest day yet for the nascent industry", the stock is set for another day of unprecedented volatility and mayhem, with huge swings in premarket trading falling as much as 7% before trading higher by 13% as more than 300,000 shares have already traded hands in the low-float stock, whose top shareholder owns ~70% of the shares outstanding.
Once again the pot euphoria is contagious, as Canopy Growth’s ADRs rose 3.1% while the ETFMG Alternative Harvest exchange-traded fund added 4.1% according to Bloomberg.
"When you get big moves like this, you suddenly have a lot of people paying attention,” said Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "People are going to be watching a little closer and there probably will be more human involvement today than yesterday."
Which means that the violent moves…
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Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To Lowest Since The ’60s
by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2018 8:34 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
The last time initial jobless claims were this low (1969), Abbey Road was #1 on the charts, and a recession broke out…
At 201k, initial claims are the lowest since 1969, and continuing claims are also plunging, to the lowest since 1973…
As good as it gets?
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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