Weeping and gnashing of teeth shall come…

We don’t know when, exactly.  But we do know a certain catastrophe’s approaching.  In fact, we can see it on the horizon.

Does anyone in Washington give a rip the nation’s beyond broke?  Does anyone in Congress care that outright money printing is what’s financing their stimulus bills?  Does House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters think it’s all a real hoot?

Surely, someone in the legislature is aghast at federal spending that’s gone completely out of control.

Are you aghast?

We are.  But there’s nothing we can do to stop it.  Nearly all remnants of fiscal conservatism have been quarantined from federal government.

The majority of the electorate have voted for generous gifts from the public treasury.  They want free education, free food, free phones, free transportation, and free drugs.  They want debt forgiveness.  Most of all, they want free money.

Many representatives are pushing the President to give the voters what they want…and what the politicians have promised.  Specifically, more stimmy checks.  According to MoneyWise:

“More than 75 members of Congress say that until the pandemic is over, there should be regular stimulus checks.  President Joe Biden is being urged to wrap them into the $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending plan he’s now promoting.”

Stimmy checks, as far as we can tell, have nothing to do with infrastructure.  Yet that’s the beauty of perpetual stimmy checks in the interminable pandemic era.  The legislature can “wrap them into” just about anything.  All it takes is a simple stimmy check earmark.

Hemorrhaging Red Ink

The longer personal livelihoods are funded by government giveaways the more dependent people become.  Those who were once self-supporting through their own work derived income are now reliant on stimulus…and generous unemployment checks.

Why work, when it’s much more lucrative to loaf and invite your soul?

Meanwhile, Washington’s hemorrhaging red ink.  This week the U.S. Treasury Department released its Monthly Treasury Statement.

It’s unlikely Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen read it.  But if she had she would’ve discovered the federal government has

The Hexa is an electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) wingless multicopter. It is developed by LIFT Aircraft, a Texas-based company. In May, the Air Force will start testing the “flying car” that was designed for the commercial market to be used in military missions, including rescuing troops, delivering cargo and conducting security checks over an airfield.

In late March, one of the flying cars was loaded on a HC-130J and was transported from Ohio to Texas. This was a test to prove that eVTOL aircraft fit to be transported by U.S. military cargo planes.

The initial test was with a single eVTOL, while a C-130H could carry up to four Hexa platforms, with newer C-130J models potentially able to transport five or six at a time.

The first eVTOL prototype was unveiled in February 2021, and the first production units were delivered to the US Air Force for testing and air-worthiness certification.

The Hexa isn’t exactly a flying car, it’s better described as a multi-rotor drone, which is considered an ultralight aircraft that doesn’t need a pilot’s license to fly.

Such eVTOL capable of landing without a runway could be used to ferry troops and supplies needed to stand up operations, while also providing a platform for crisis response. The Hexa will undergo tests for all of these.

Right now, Hexa’s abilities are limited and geared toward the commercial recreation market. The aircraft has room for one person and can fly for about 10-15 minutes and cover a range of 10-15 miles, depending on the payload. A person can learn to fly Hexa quickly because many of the flight systems are automated, but Lift plans to develop a fully automated version.

In the future, the platform could potentially serve as an armed overwatch aircraft to protect ground troops. Even in its current, limited capability, the Hexa could be useful. While it can’t carry as much weight as required to satisfy certain logistics missions, it could transfer smaller cargo.

eVTOL platforms with quiet electric engines and simple sustainment footprints could become key to the Air Force as it figures out

Yesterday, the focus of the interview was a criticism lodged by Dr. Gottlieb against the Biden administration's target of 200MM Americans vaccinated by the end of the month. Hours after our post, Bloomberg News shared a startling piece of analysis: Across the US, unused vaccines are already starting to pile up. Should we see daily vaccination numbers continue to decline, that would suggest the demand cliff that Dr. Gottlieb anticipated has perhaps already arrived.

So far, 37% of American adults have gotten at least one dose, and the country is one of the world leaders in vaccinations. But even some states that are doing well are struggling with what Bloomberg described as "stubborn pockets" where uptake is low.

Bloomberg offered the state of Virginia – infamous for its purple blue-meets-red divide between the Washington DC suburbs and Richmond vs. the rest of the state - as a "microcosm" of the "demand gap" plaguing America.

In Virginia, for instance, 83% of vaccines supplied to the state have been used – but the number of people getting shots differs sharply from city to city. That difference is especially stark in Charlottesville and Lynchburg, separated by a mere hour’s drive on U.S. 29 past vineyards and open farmland.

"Virginia is sort of a microcosm of the country,” said Costi Sifri, director of epidemiology at UVA Health in Charlottesville. "We’re going to have this same type of challenge played out in every state in the country. How do we close the vaccine gaps that are going to occur geographically?"

In Charlottesville, a mostly Democratic area that is home to the University of Virginia, vaccine appointments are tough to snag even with two mass clinics right in town. In Lynchburg, 70 miles south and dominated by conservative Liberty University, open appointments at an old TJ Maxx are easy to find. The disparity has led to in-state vaccine tourism where

Enaex is the largest producer of explosive-grade ammonium nitrate in Latin America. The incident occurred within the acid plant where nitroglycerin is stored. 

At the moment, the official number of injured is unknown. The mayor of Calama, Daniel Agusto, told CNN Chile that the powerful explosion "was felt in almost the entire city" and even "traffic was cut off."

???? AHORA | Alcalde de Calama por explosión en planta Enaex: "Es un accidente de proporciones (…). Se trataría del material nitroglicerina". https://t.co/E6QIJgKdbt pic.twitter.com/c9uyjdqoex

— CNN Chile (@CNNChile) April 16, 2021

'"There are about 25 injured who are being transferred to the Carlos Cisternas y del Cobre Hospital. Various gravity. The explosion was felt throughout Calama. It destroyed the Enaex acid plant. That plant that works with explosives is three kilometers from the houses in the city," according to one Twitter user who also posted a stunning picture of the explosion.

Here's a video of the explosion sending a large column of smoke into the atmosphere. 

¡PRECAUCIÓN! #Calama (16:57 hrs) Información preliminar de bomberos indican que la explosión fue en la planta de ácido de la empresa Enaex. Hacemos el llamado a los pobladores a no acercarse al sector del accidente. Noticia en desarrollo. pic.twitter.com/YelDcLACy0

— TransporteInforma Región de Antofagasta (@TTIAntofagasta) April 16, 2021

A video of the explosion as it was happening. 

pic.twitter.com/pcO7dlc2nk

— MacaJaDina (@dina_maca) April 16, 2021

Video from within the plant. 

Fuerte explosión hace un momento se sintió en la ciudad de #Calama. Información preliminar indican que esta se produjo en planta de ácido de ENAEX Calama. Noticia en desarrollo. Se remeció toda la casa, es de esperar que no hayan personas heridas. ???? pic.twitter.com/lutgXDF2hD

— ????Ángel???? (@angelbened) April 16, 2021

Another view of the explosion. 

Explosión en sector enaex #Calama. pic.twitter.com/MOw2958RcN

— Concejal Cristian Flores XY 328 (@titan_flores) April 16, 2021

So does this mean Latin America's largest producer of explosive-grade ammonium nitrate is offline?  

Chinese aluminum prices moved higher Friday, hitting an 11-year high, exchange data showed, as Beijing embarks on the road to decarbonization, a move that has reduced energy to the power-hungry smelting hub located in Inner Mongolia, even as new capacity came on online, according to Mining.com. 

The benchmark price for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 18,025 yuan ($2,764) per metric ton, an 11-year high. 

In terms of dollars, SHFE aluminum futures printed at 2,800 per metric ton, a critical resistance level dating back more than a decade ago. 

Analysts believe the price surge in aluminum is due to Bejing's curb on aluminum output in the Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. 

According to Mining.com,

Primary aluminum output in the world's top producer was up 8.5% year-on-year at 3.28 million tonnes in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said, beating the previous monthly high of 3.27 million tonnes reached in December 2020.

High prices are incentivizing production, with Shanghai aluminum mostly holding above 17,000 yuan a tonne in March.

Prices hit an 11-year high of 18,460 yuan on Friday.

In July, aluminum for delivery was down 0.35% on Friday morning after futures touched $2.355 a tonne on the Comex market in New York.

Meanwhile, the output of a group of 10 nonferrous metals – including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel – rose 12.7% year-on-year in March to 5.48 million tonnes, the bureau said.

However, daily aluminum output eased in March from the previous two months, Reuters calculations based on official data showed, dropping to around 105,800 tonnes per day versus 109,300 tonnes per day for January/February, a record.

"March's record output is due to a 500,000 tonne per year ramp-up of new capacity in the first quarter, offsetting the Inner Mongolia curbs," CRU analyst Wan Ling told Reuters.

"Some idle capacity has restarted or is going to restart, April production should be still a bit higher compared with March," Wan said.

"Data do indicate that China still has a considerable appetite for

For his weekly Flow Show report, BofA's Michael Hartnett picked a remarkable front cover chart, one showing that the 76% jump in US stocks from Mar’20 lows is now the 3rd largest YoY move in the past 100 years.

Among the factors making this possible was the return of the record stock market mania, which in the last week manifested itself in another round of huge inflows into stocks ($25.6bn) bonds, ($17.9bn), all funded by an even bigger ($47.3bn) outflow from of cash, the largest in 4 months. Among the "flows to know" according to Hartnett, there were strong inflows to IG bonds ($9.8bn) & EM equities ($5.1bn), plus tech inflows resume ($1.6bn); inflow to global stocks past 5 months ($602bn) exceeds inflow in prior 12 years ($452bn)…note US corporate buybacks ($6.3tn over past 12 years).

Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833 million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit optimism.

As a reminder, earlier this week BofA quant and chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian explained her reasons why she expects the S&P500 to drop 10% and close the year at 3,800 making BofA tied for the most pessimistic banks on Wall Street).

Looking ahead, Hartnett says that after the remarkable rebound in everyghing in the past year, "there is only one more V to go": V-shape in stock prices, housing, PMIs, EPS, GDP now being followed by V-shape in inflation, just look at lumber prices…

…. tighter labor market (almost half of all small businesses are unable to fund workers, as we discussed yesterday);

The coming inflection point in the economy will be followed by monetary policy (in

The money, taken from last month's $1.9 trillion stimulus package, will help the CDC and individual states monitor emerging variants by boosting the country's capacity to sequence the virus's genome and detect mutations, the White House said. It comes as the B.1.1.7 variant, also known as "the Kent strain" from where it was first sequenced in the UK, is raising alarms as it is now one of – if not the most – common strains in hotspots like Michigan and NYC.

B.1.1.7 and other variants are increasingly infecting younger children, prompting at least one respected epidemiologist – the University of Minnesota's Michael Osterholm – to warn the press about a "brand new ball game" for fighting COVID (fortunately, Pfizer has been making swift progress in trials of its COVID-19 vaccine on increasingly youonger children).

The money will be used for collecting COVID-19 samples, sequencing their genomes to identify the strain, and sharing the data, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House, which pointed to these "new and potentially dangerous strains" in its statement. The investment also includes $400MM to establish six "Centers of Excellence in Genomic Epidemiology," a partnership between state health departments and academic institutions for research and development of the new strains, while also providing $300MM to create a national bioinformatics system to share and analyze sequencing data. The administration will dole out the first portion of the money in early May, with a second tranche expected to be invested over the next several years.

"At this critical juncture in the pandemic, these new resources will help ensure states and the CDC have the support they need to fight back against dangerous variants and slow the spread of the

The following is an excerpt from a recent Market Comment featured on The Felder Report PREMIUM. 

As most readers should be well aware, one of the things I monitor most closely is insider buying and selling. Nobody knows more about the bullish and bearish developments of a business and its valuation relative to those developments than the company’s top executives. Now some believe that, while insider activity may sometimes be a good indication of future price movements in individual stocks, in aggregate it doesn’t have any meaning at all. In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.

As Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book, Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market. In his words, “Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.” Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.

This should make intuitive sense. Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?

As to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”

Certainly, we have seen this play out over the past year. The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the leadership of the rebound in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far. However,

The expected Russia reaction to Biden’s Thursday sanctions rollout for the alleged SolarWinds hack and general election ‘interference’ charges has come: ten US diplomats have been expelled from Russia on order of the foreign ministry. This is the precise number that the US ordered booted from the Russian embassy in Washington. 

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a Friday press briefing announced, “Ten diplomats were on a list the US side handed over to us asking to ensure their leaving the United States. We will give a tit-for-tat response to that. We will also ask ten US diplomats to leave our country.” He added further that “the Americans will be asked to bring the number of employees in Russia in line with the number of Russians in the United States.”

He also charged that American NGOs as well as US funds will be banned from “interfering” in Russian affairs, but it’s unclear the exact actions the Kremlin will take. He further teased that Russia still holds out the possibility of inflicting “painful measures” on US businesses, but stopped short by saying it won’t go that far at this time. 

Earlier in the day Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov slammed Washington’s “addiction to sanctions” which remains “unacceptable” – explaining further “President Putin has spoken about the appropriateness of building relations, normalizing relations and de-escalating relations.”

Following this, a prominent pro-Putin TV pundit declared the current outraged sentiment in Moscow… 

“There can be no de-escalation in relations between Russia and the U.S., all of Biden’s complimentary words to Moscow are absolutely empty rhetoric,” he said.

This follows Biden’s late Thursday address wherein he expressed hope for a ‘de-escalation’ of the situation, particularly in regards to Ukraine. The expelling of the ten American diplomats is being described as appropriate ”reciprocity” by the Kremlin, but that Russia’s stability is “fully ensured.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova
“The United States is not ready to make peace with a multipolar world without an exclusive American hegemony.”https://t.co/MCNQQVOPnN

— The Geezer???????????????????????? (@FrGeezer) April 16, 2021

As for the White House taking aim at Russia’s sovereign debt, which saw the US announce it will ban American banks from buying new Russian sovereign debt starting June 14,

What's the point – of no return?

What’s the point? That’s a question I ask myself more and more frequently. Thursday’s session was a key case in point of that. We got a slew of key US data and it was, almost across the board, fantastically stronger than expected: the Empire PMI at 26.3 vs. 20; initial claims 576K vs. 700K; retail sales up 9.8% m/m(!) vs. 5.8%; Philly Fed at 50.2 vs. 41.5; and only industrial production of 1.4% m/m vs. 2.5% spoiling the party a little. In short, stimulus is stimulating to an incredible degree, and it’s only just started.

So what did the markets do? Well, US stocks hit a new record – but then again US stocks always hit a new record. Whatever headline you care to think up, new records it is. More importantly, US bond yields tumbled – TUMBLED. 10-years dropped 11bp intraday, for example, before bouncing back to 1.58%. Yes, one can argue that Treasury shorts were stopped out. But why would anyone not be selling, or going short, on that kind of data basis? One can also argue that Japan and China were snapping up Treasuries too: perhaps because they recognize that all the US stimulus spending means more imports, and so more sales to the US, and so more need to park the cash somewhere? But who knew the balance of payments operated in real time like that? I am sure people far smarter than me will be able to turn round and give an explanation of how this makes sense: and I hope they can also show a time-stamped receipt that they were long US Treasuries on the back of expectations for a well-above consensus set of US data releases – otherwise it’s just a post hoc ergo propter hock.

The only fundamental arguments for a sudden swing to buy Treasuries like that strategically, not tactically, or at least the ones which appeal to me, are: the fervent belief that the more sugar-rush one gets now, the harder the crash afterwards – but why only see this now?; or the belief that none of this matters anyway because the Fed is going to look the other way regardless – which