Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Happy Martin Luther King Day!

The Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. at the Lincoln Memorial during the March on Washington on Aug. 28, 1963.It's Martin Luther King day so the markets are closed.

It's a good day to read his "I Have a Dream" speech – really is amazing when you think of the great social change in this nation that was set in motion by one man with a vision.  Here's a great video of the actual event.

It is a testament to the power and effectiveness of Dr. King's movement that, even to those of us who were alive at the time, it seems like it must have been another world where a man had to speak out against such injustice as if it wasn't obvious to the majority of people that segragation, whether by law or by practice, was an outrage.

Sadly, many of the lessons he taught us have already been forgotten, some great quotes:

  • Nonviolence is a powerful and just weapon. which cuts without wounding and ennobles the man who wields it. It is a sword that heals.
  • Nonviolence means avoiding not only external physical violence but also internal violence of spirit. You not only refuse to shoot a man, but you refuse to hate him.
  • It is not enough to say we must not wage war. It is necessary to love peace and sacrifice for it.
  • The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood.
  • Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable… Every step toward the goal of justice requires sacrifice, suffering, and struggle; the tireless exertions and passionate concern of dedicated individuals.   
  • Never forget that everything Hitler did in Germany was legal.
  • We will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.
  • The past is prophetic in that it asserts loudly that wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows.
  • A nation or civilization that continues to produce soft-minded men purchases its own spiritual death on the installment plan.
  • A nation that


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SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

sp500-kitchin-cycle-reviewThe biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009 are all recession years), markets may get very interesting.

 

Season1


We will continue to watch the Kitchin cycle with interest. 


SP500 cycle


The pullbacks in the SP500 have really tested below 20% over the 10+ year period. This very strange for such a long period of time, is it the algo's or the FED's trading team. Who knows! However the point is if price ever gets below 20% on a weekly close then you can bet the following sell off will be spectacular. 


SP500 stop loss

     

Divider
 

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have
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Oil Glut Overshadows Geopolitical Risk In 2020

Courtesy of Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com

The risk of oil supply disruptions from around the world has diminished, and rising non-OPEC production provides a “solid base from which to react to any escalation in geopolitical tension.”

In its January Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that there is plenty of oil sloshing around, despite the U.S. and Iran nearly going to war.

“We cannot know how the geopolitical situation will play out over time, but for now the risk of a major threat to oil supplies appears to have receded,” the IEA said.

“As was the case following the attacks on Saudi Arabia in September, once the initial fears of a sustained supply shock subsided, the Brent price rapidly gave up its $4/bbl spike.”

Oil inventories held in OECD countries is 9 million barrels above the five-year average, and there are also plenty of strategic stockpiles to call upon in the event of an outage, the agency said.

Still, while geopolitical risk has “faded,” it has not gone away entirely. The Trump administration may have refrained from all-out war against Iran, but the assassination of General Soleimani took the confrontation to new heights.

While Trump’s speech earlier this month was widely interpreted as one of “de-escalation,” he also prefaced his comments by saying Iran would never have a nuclear weapon. But, sanctions, “maximum pressure,” and the assassination of one of its top leaders will obviously provoke a response. With little left to lose, Tehran is backing out of most of its commitments under the 2015 nuclear agreement, a deal that the U.S. already exited nearly two years ago.

All of which is to say the countries are seemingly locked on a collision course. The world breathed a sigh of relief when the two countries backed away from the brink, but there are decent odds that the conflict flares up again in the not-so-distant future. There are few pathways for actual de-escalation, absent an overhaul of U.S. policy.

At the same time, Iran has already lost much of its oil supply due to sanctions. So, the additional supply risk is concentrated in Iraq,


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Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

 

Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

Josh and I spoke recently  about the slow grind higher, the lack of volatility, and all the recent stock market records. The very first response in the comment section was, “market overdue for a pullback.”

This seems to be the prevailing narrative and I gotta be honest, I agree. I’m just as surprised as anyone that the market keeps grinding higher.

Here are a few data points, by way of the S&P 500.

  • The index has closed within 2% of the all-time high for 68 straight days
  • The index has gone 70 days without a 1% decline, the sixth longest streak over the last 20 years.
  • 87% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average
  • The S&P 500 is currently 11% above its 200-day moving average.

Rather than relying on our collective intuition that we’re due for a pullback, I wanted to look at what the data said. For this analysis, as a measurement of stocks being over extended, we looked at the S&P 500 when it was 10% above its 200-day moving average.

Before we go any further, there is nothing particularly special about the 200-day. We (Nick) also looked at the 50 and 100-day and they all told the same story. The chart below shows when the S&P 500 has been more than 10% above its 200-day moving average.

You’ll notice a few things right off the bat. This sort of thing, when stocks are extended, tends to happen at all-time highs and in deep drawdowns. The latter might be counter intuitive but think about huge bounces off the lows, like the GFC for example. By September 2009, the S&P 500 was 20% above its 200-day moving average even as it was sat 32% below all-time highs.

Since 1950, when the S&P 500 is at least 10% above its 200-day moving average, 59% of the time it was within 2% of its all-time high, and 13% of the time it was in a greater than 20% drawdown.

You can…
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Neel Kashkari Appeals To “QE Conspiracists”: Show Me How The Fed Is Moving Stock Prices… So Here It Is

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Things are starting to get surprisingly heated at the Fed, now that not only Wall Street strategists, and traders but also Fed presidents are starting to tell the truth about how the Fed's "NOT QE", which sorry but we will call it by its real name QE 4, is pushing stocks to ridiculous nosebleed record levels (as one can see by the relentless meltup in the S&P over the past four months), at valuations that are now higher the dot com days.

It all started when, in a moment of bizarre honesty, Dallas Fed president and former Goldmanite Robert Kaplan admitted in a Bloomberg interview that the expansion of its balance sheet was helping to lift asset prices. Commenting on the Fed's massive liquidity response to the JPMorgan-precipitated repo-market crisis (it's not just our view that Jamie Dimon caused the repo crisis), which triggered not only the first Fed use of repos since the financial crisis, but also $60 billion in monthly T-Bill QE, Kaplan said that "my own view is it’s having some effect on risk assets", adding that "It’s a derivative of QE when we buy bills and we inject more liquidity; it affects risk assets. This is why I say growth in the balance sheet is not free. There is a cost to it."

This interview followed just days after one of Wall Street's most closely followed strategists, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson wrote a report in which he said that "as the Fed has expanded the size of its balance sheet, we have been of the view that the resultant excess liquidity has been beneficial for stock prices and multiples. The potential impact of the Fed on equities has been a central feature of almost all our client conversations the last few months. Most clients suspect that there is some positive impact, though the transmission mechanism and quantification of that impact are hard to pin down, limiting confidence in its durability now that asset prices appear ahead of the fundamentals (Exhibit 1). Since the Fed has rarely expanded its balance sheet at the pace it has been on since October there is limited


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US Warship Sails Through Contested Taiwan Strait After Election  

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Less than a week after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen won re-election and days after the U.S. and China signed a Phase 1 trade agreement, a U.S. guided-missile cruiser transited the Taiwan Strait on Thursday. Joe Keiley, a spokesman for the U.S. 7th Fleet, on Friday said the U.S.S. Shiloh (CG-67), a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser, conducted a "routine Taiwan Strait transit" freedom of navigation mission and demonstrated its "commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific."

"The U.S. Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows," Keiley said, quoted by Reuters

Naturally, China wasn't pleased about a U.S. warship sailing through the strait. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said the warship was being tracked and asked the U.S. to respect China's territorial integrity.

"The issue of Taiwan is about China's territorial integrity, and the most important and sensitive issue for China-US relations," Geng said, adding that the Trump administration must respect the one-China principle.

A statement from Taiwan's defense ministry said the U.S. warship was on routine freedom of navigation mission when it sailed north, through the strait, a region that separates the island from China. The narrow strait has been a hotbed of tension between Beijing and Washington. 

President Trump has given support to Taipei, especially with the re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen, who leads the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party and is against China's "one country, two systems" policy. In recent years, Washington has ramped up arms sales to Taiwan, including the sale of 108 Abrams main battle tanks, 66 F-16 fight jets, dozens of radar systems, and hundreds of missiles and torpedoes, to a nation that has emerged as one of Uncle Sam's most reliable arms clients.


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Austrian Chancellor Says Battling Illegal Immigration Is Just As Important As Climate Change

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Despite losing a confidence vote in May that led to the collapse of Austria's ruling coalition, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, the youngest Chancellor in Austria's history, won a decisive re-election in September.

But instead of reviving his conservative People's Party's alliance with the ultra-conservative Freedom Party, Kurz has bounced back from a bribery scandal perpetrated by his former coalition partner and decided to try forming a new coalition with the center-left Green Party.

The marriage of conservative and liberal has led to some interesting policy priorities.

For example, in his first interview with the international press since officially taking office last week, Kurz told the FT that his new government's top priorities will be fighting climate change and curbing immigration.

As Kurz explained, while protecting the environment is an important priority, fighting immigration is just as important. Because Austria's Judeo-Christian identity will continue to be eroded if Europe doesn't get its arms around illegal migration.

"It is important to protect our environment but it is also important to decide who will live in our country…if we do not fight against illegal migration, Europe will not be the same in five, 10 or 20 years," he told the Financial Times. "If we do not control who is allowed to come we will not be able to live in security…and we will not be able to keep our identity."

Kurz promised to continue pushing in Europe for tougher policing of illegal immigration in the Mediterranean. He criticized the current system as a "ticket to the European Union" that incentivized crossings and smugglers.

Sebastian Kurz

His government's program also calls to make Austria carbon-neutral by 2040, along with a ban on women under the age of 14 wearing headscarves in schools.

Finally, Kurz is also calling for preventive detention of migrants suspected of extremism.

It was the government’s duty to "protect young girls," he said, decrying "influence…from immigrants from different parts of the world which I think dangerous in many areas." He said he was proud that Austria was a "Christian-dominated country" marked by its shared Judeo-Christian heritage.

Many


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Housing Starts Soar To Highest Since 2006 As Permits Plunge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Following October and November's bounce in starts and permits, and despite solid sales and mortgage application data, analysts expected a mixed picture for housing data today (with growth in starts slowing and permits shrinking).

However, the data was extreme to say the least with Housing Starts soaring 16.9% MoM (highest since Oct 2016) and Building Permits shrank 3.9% MoM (worse than the -1.5% exp).

Source: Bloomberg

This pushed Starts to their highest since Dec 2006, but permits declined to weakest since September.

Source: Bloomberg

All four regions posted a gain in starts, with the Midwest, South and West showing the best pace since 2006. Starts in the Northeast were the highest since August.

Under the hood, Starts were dominated by a 32% surge in multi-family units (though single-family starts rose 11.2% MoM)…

Multi-family Starts soared 75% YoY…

But, the more forward-looking permits disappointed…

Source: Bloomberg

…as multi-family permits plunged 11.1% (single-family -0.5% MoM)…

Even so, the strong overall reading on starts corroborates a jump in developers' confidence. U.S. homebuilder sentiment posted the highest back-to-back readings since 1999 in December and January amid a jump in prospective buyers and a bump in the sales outlook.

Bloomberg notes that the data indicate residential construction added to fourth-quarter growth after contributing in the previous quarter for the first time since the end of 2017. While weather may have played a role in the month's data, demand has been fueled by mortgage rates near a three-year low as the job market remains resilient and wage gains help put money into the pockets of potential homebuyers.

 





And Another All Time High For World Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With the Fed flooding the market with hundreds of billions of excess liquidity, it's hardly a surprise that every single day is a new all time high. In fact, writing these daily updates is getting downright boring.

One day after the US stock market exploded higher in the last hour of trading, melting up before our eyes on no news, world shares followed apace rising to record highs on Friday, with markets across the globe a sea of green…

…supported by Chinese data that showed GDP slumping to just 6.1%, a fresh 29 year low, suggested the world’s second-biggest economy was stabilizing. As reported last night, China’s economy grew 6% between October and December last year. Anemic domestic demand and the trade war with the United States led to growth of 6.1% in 2019, the slowest in 29 years. However, the data also reinforced recent signs of an improvement in Chinese business confidence as trade tensions eased after Beijing and Washington signed an initial deal on Wednesday to defuse their tariff war.

China’s industrial production “is quite telling, because more broadly it speaks to the bottoming out in the global industrial-production cycle, which we’ve been looking for and the market’s been looking for for the last six to nine months,” John Woods, chief investment officer for the Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse, told Bloomberg TV in Hong Kong. This suggests “the global economy is on a recovering path.”

The continuing rebound in Chinese data, along with easing trade tensions with the United States, sent the MSCI world equity index up 0.2% and further into record territory. The Chinese data fueled a rise in the Chinese yuan, which touch a six-month high of 6.8660 to the dollar.

And with China stable for now, investors turned their attention to improved growth prospects across the world. European shares gained 0.7% in early trade, with Frankfurt, Paris and London indexes up 0.5% to 0.7%. Emini S&P futures were also pointing up, continuing a virtually straight line levitation since the Iran escalation faded away, while upbeat earnings from Morgan Stanley,


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Trader: Nothing Like A Lousy Number To Make Markets Happy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Global stock trading screens are a sea of green this morning, despite a slew of key data coming in below expectations and doing anything but confirming the market's narrative that everything's about to be awesome again.

Overnight saw the big one from China disappoint with economic growth the weakest in 29 years. But, as Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, if you want to feel good about the equity market today, there is no need to look further than today’s U.K. retail sales report. It was a stinker. Following close on the heels of Wednesday’s CPI miss.

The market pricing of the chances of a cut in rates as soon as this month are now showing an expectation that it is just about baked in the cake. And this at a time when surveys show that most economists think it is too early for a move. When have we seen that before? The U.K. economy may not be as influential as it once was on global matters, but it is still of material consequence.

And every stock index loves it when a major central bank moves to the left.

Progress on trade matters between the U.S. and China is a positive development. It doesn’t matter if it isn’t as good as it gets.

Increasing talk of election year fiscal stimulus in the U.S. has stock investors rubbing their hands together. But nothing gets them more stoked than rate cuts and the possibility of more QE.

Yesterday, two of Germany’s leading industry groups, the BDI and BGA, urged the government to do more to stimulate the economy. Yes there have been green shoots trying to poke their heads out of the ground. But, as the BDI’s managing director said, “Better-than-expected still doesn’t mean good.”

As one of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s biggest fans, I continue to maintain confidence that, ultimately, she will be able to wring some action out of the German government. But all of the European and euro bulls need to accept the reality that it doesn’t count until they show us the money. And it remains true that the global economy won’t


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Phil's Favorites

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the GOP's relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: ...



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Chart School

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1...



more from Chart School

Zero Hedge

Haftar Blocks All Libyan Oil Exports Day Before Berlin Peace Conference

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Given Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar has over the past two years captured the majority of the oil and gas rich country's energy producing regions, he's now playing his biggest card yet to leverage international peace talks in his favor amid a final push for his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces to take Tripoli. 

Bloomberg reports Saturday that the Benghazi-based 'rebel' general has now "blocked oil exports at ports under his contr...



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The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Breakout Expected Near January 24th

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65
ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still
believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled
investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still
here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices
higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when
people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken
throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:

December: Generally l...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview for decades. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, Foxocracy: Inside the Network&...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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