U.S. stock index futures dipped on Thursday, reversing a 3-day rally as investors braced for another staggering weekly jobless claims number, while European stocks clung to modest gains on the last trading day before the Easter holiday. Oil initially rose in the wake of Russia signaling readiness to cut output although US resistance to join the conversation has sparked concerns today's OPEC+ meeting could end up a major disappointment.

Early in the overnight session, futures continued their multi-day ramp on early signs the coronavirus outbreak in U.S. hot spots was close to peaking, with the S&P 500 ending more than 3.4% higher after President Trump suggested the government could reopen the country in phases and maybe ahead of schedule. However, sentiment has warned as the session continued ahead of today’s plethora of risk events.

First and foremost, traders will eye the number of initial jobless claims which are expected to have surged by 5.5 million this week, and to 15 million in the past three weeks. Estimates in the survey were as high as 9.295 million, and the final report from the Labor Department is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Then again, the worse the initial claims number, the better it will likely for stocks. As DB's Jim Reid writes, "brace yourself ahead of what will likely be the strangest Easter weekend in your lifetime as today we have another weekly jobless claim report to look forward to in the US. Having said that the S&P 500 has rallied on the day of the staggeringly bad numbers over the last two weeks (+6.24% and +2.28% respectively) so it may be as much a curiosity of how bad unemployment is going to be in the short term as much as it is about markets."

A major event today will be the OPEC+ virtual meeting, where the Kuwait Oil Minister said the intention is moving towards reaching an agreement to lower output by a large amount between 10mln-15mln bpd, even though the Kremlin declined to comment on reports their maximum cut would be 2mln BPD. Russia and Saudi Arabia still need to settle differences regarding plans for a global oil production cut according to sources, regarding baseline and

Summary:

• Italian PM says "EU could fail" if bailout package isn't handled
• Russia, Tokyo report record jumps
• Russian case total passes 10k
• Over the past 24 hours, the US reported 32,176 new cases
• US moves to try and stop the IMF from approving Iran's request for a $5 billion bailout
• South Korea warns risk of virus "reactivating" in cured patients
• Dr. Fauci says US deaths might be "closer to 60k"
• 19 Syrians have tested positive as health orgs alarmed by outbreak
• President Trump says US could reopen in phases "ahead of schedule"
• Spain has now confirmed 152,446 cases of the virus
• EU pressures Netherlands to drop opposition to bailout plan
• Support for 'Unity Government' surges in the UK
• Italian PM says lockdown might start to lift at end of April
• Spain government celebrates lockdown achievements as opposition suspects cases are undercounted

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Update (0800ET): Offering some more surprisingly optimistic comments, Dr. Fauci said in what have become routine morning comments in the press that he now expects US fatalities due to the virus to be "closer to 60k" than the 100k-200k previously anticipated. Trump once said that as many as 240k might die.

Futs have been somewhat volatile this morning, but as it stands, it looks like the Dow will open lower by less than 1%.

However, the trickle of optimistic headlines garners a lot of attention, even more concerning signs that recovered patients might still be vulnerable to the virus have emerged. The coronavirus may be "reactivating" in people who had appeared to be cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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As Holy Week draws to a close and the long Holiday Weekend begins, the optimism that helped inspire the biggest bounce since the 'rona rout appears to have faded, and Dow futs are back to being three figures in the red Thursday morning, pointing to a lower open as traders realize the 'plateaus' supposedly reached in Italy, Spain and New York didn't really mean anything. And while the

Authored by John Authers, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

As the Black Death scythed through Europe in 1348 and 1349, workers across the continent discovered that they had power for the first time in their lives.

Textile workers in St. Omer in northern France asked for and received three successive wage rises within a year of the Great Plague’s passing. Many workers’ guilds struck for higher pay and shorter hours. When the French government tried to cap these demands in 1351, it still allowed pay rises of as much as a third more than their pre-plague level. By 1352, the English Parliament — which in 1349 had passed a law limiting pay to no more than its pre-plague level — was taking action against employers who had instead doubled or tripled workers’ pay.

These numbers come from the historian Barbara Tuchman’s, “A Distant Mirror,” a masterwork on the miseries of Europe in the 14th century. Published in 1978, when she thought it reflected the contemporary miseries of the 1970s, it has surged up the Amazon ratings as scholars from all disciplines search the history of pandemics to understand the post-coronavirus future that awaits us.

Pandemics, we discover, have shaped civilization, and there are even arguments that they have ushered in positive change. The Black Death, which came as the Catholic Church was riven by a papal schism, changed attitudes toward religion, leaving Europeans more reluctant to submit to authority. As Tuchman put it, “the Black Death may have been the unrecognized beginning of modern man” — even if the Renaissance, Reformation and Enlightenment were all centuries in the future.

One of the clearest lessons: labor gains in power at the expense of capital. This might seem too big an extrapolation from one of history’s truly extreme events. The Black Death cut Europe’s population by some 40% in less than two years. Naturally that strengthened the hand of the surviving workers. No other epidemic has had so great an impact, and neither will this one. 

But research just published by the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that less damaging pandemics have similar effects. They looked at a dozen epidemics, from the Black Death through to the H1N1 flu of 2009, which claimed at least

The world is sleepwalking into a surveillance state. The march towards an Orwellian society is closer than ever, as governments have used COVID-19 as a perfect cover to implement totalitarian measures to track citizens that amount to human rights violations to "flatten the pandemic curve."

The latest example is coming from France's health minister Olivier Véran and digital minister Cédric O, who announced in an interview with Le Monde that the French government is developing a smartphone app that will track citizens, by warning them if they come into contact with a COVID-19 carrier.

"In the fight against Covid-19, technology can help," O told the French newspaper. "Nothing will be decided without broad debate."

France's digital minister said the app project is called "StopCovid" – and will be voluntarily downloaded on smartphones — will utilize the phone's Bluetooth capabilities to notify users if they come into proximity to a carrier. The app only works if virus carriers and others have the software operating on the phone.

"The application would simply inform you that you have been in contact in the previous days with someone who tested positive," O said, adding that developers have been working on the app for several days.

French law currently prohibits smartphone tracking, unlike China and South Korea, that monitor their citizens to make sure COVID-19 carriers are quarantining at home.

Several lawmakers in France have told President Emmanuel Macron's parliament that they would be opposed to geo-tracking civilians.

O told the French paper that the app uses Bluetooth and not geolocation and reaffirmed that the government would not track people.

"We shouldn't start a mind-trip over how repressive an application it would be," the minister said. "Our scenario is one of a voluntary tool, that could be un-installed at any time. Nobody will have access to the list of contaminated people and it'll be impossible to know who contaminated who."

The problem with the surveillance app is that when the virus curve flattens, and a vaccine is found down the line, the government could utilize the app as a means of control. The European Commission has

A conspiracy theory linking 5G to the coronavirus has spread like wildfire. In fact, so many people believe this theory that over the weekend, numerous 5G base transmission systems were burned down in Britain amid claims aired on social-media that the technology contributes to the spread of COVID-19.

There are now floods of posts on Facebook claiming the coronavirus outbreak was caused by 5G, the fifth generation of mobile internet. Many of the claims center on the idea that the virus originated in Wuhan because the Chinese city had deployed 5G networks last year.

The attention that these discussions are getting (and the actions they are enabling over the health worries) are, according to Jefferies' analysts, a cause for concern as they could lead to a possible drag on its rollout in democratic countries.

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee wrote in a note yesterday that, while most "will laugh" at a scientifically unproven claim, public worry over potentially adverse health impacts of 5G due to radiation shouldn't be underestimated.

He added that, "public fears, even if not based on fact, could pressure governments to stall the rollout of the technology," and in fact he notes that two cantons in Switzerland have already decided to hold referendums on 5G.

So, is there any truth to the claims that 5G is causing the coronavirus to spread? And where did this idea originate from?

Wired traced the conspiracy theory linking 5G with the coronavirus to a Belgian newspaper's interview with Dr. Kris Van Kerckhoven.

The newspaper headline read "5G is life-threatening, and no one knows it."  A tweet showing the newspaper article can still be found here, although the article has reportedly been deleted from the newspaper's website.

Artikel verwijderd. Zegt weer genoeg. pic.twitter.com/AGOGpYdprR

— NWO Forum (@NWOforum) February 2, 2020

Valuewalk.com's Michelle Jones reports that in the interview, Van Kerckhoven not only claimed that 5G technology was dangerous, but also said it could be linked to the coronavirus. At

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As promised, Downing Street has released its morning update on the condition of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. And according to Spokesman James Slack, who spoke with reporters on a conference call on Wednesday, Johnson is still in "stable" condition, but remains in intensive care after spending Tuesday night there.

Slack also said Johnson is "responding" to whatever treatment he is receiving.

"The prime minister remains clinically stable and is responding to treatment," Slack said. He added that Johnson is in "good spirits", but is unable to work right now.

“The PM is not working, he is in intensive care. He has the ability to contact those that he needs to. He is following the advice of his doctors at all times”

Slack affirmed that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has been deputized to stand in for Johnson.

News of the PM's recovery, though still not guaranteed as he remains in the ICU, is still unquestionably good news for a country that has rallied around Boris Johnson, a politician whose popularity inside and outside Britain have made him a uniquely beloved figure in British politics.

One nationwide movement involved neighborhoods walking outside at the same time to 'clap for Boris'.

Proud as punch, our estate clapping for Boris. #ClapForBoris pic.twitter.com/n77ZpPA6xM

— Graham Walker (@Graham_Wa1ker) April 7, 2020

Johnson, the consummate politician, will hopefully emerge from treatment strengthened and ready to deploy this new political capital to finish guiding the UK through the outbreak, and then through Brexit.

Earlier today we reported that the “The Liquidity Crisis Is Quickly Becoming A Solvency Crisis“, and nowhere is this more true than for US homeowners (their servicers, and their lenders).

According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Forbearance and Call Volume Survey which highlights the “unprecedented, widespread mortgage forbearance already requested by borrowers affected by the spread of the coronavirus”, the total number of loans in forbearance grew to 2.66% as of April 1; just one month ago, on March 2, the rate was 0.25%, or a 1,064% increase in just one month.

For loans backed by Ginnie Mae, which serves low- and moderate-income borrowers, the surge was much  greater, with total loans in forbearance soaring to 4.25% from 0.19% one month ago.

Overall, the MBA reports that total forbearance requests grew by 1,270% between the week of March 2 and the week of March 16, and another 1,896% between the week of March 16 and the week of March 30.

According to Bloomberg, borrowers with relatively low credit scores, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, are most likely to seek relief. Over the past two years, Ginnie Mae has guaranteed $583 billion of 30-year mortgages with FICO scores below 715, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. However, the longer the coronavirus shutdown lasts, the higher the FICO cutoff for those borrowers unable (or unwilling) to make mortgage payments.

“MBA’s survey highlights the immediate relief consumers are seeking as they navigate the economic hardships brought forth by the mitigation efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The mortgage industry is committed to providing this much-needed forbearance as mandated by law under the CARES Act. It is expected that requests will continue to skyrocket at an unsustainable pace in the coming weeks, putting insurmountable cash flow constraints on many servicers – especially IMBs.”

The surge in nonpayments comes as the U.S. economy has largely shut down to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The government is requiring lenders handling payments on federally backed loans to give borrowers grace periods of as much as six months at a time with no penalties. Predictably, loan servicers have been flooded with borrowers requesting help.

As the tide of requests to stop mortgage payments come in,

Summary:

• Confirmed cases across Africa pass 10k
• China reopens Wuhan
• Global case total passes 1.4 million
• Russia reports another record daily jump in new cases
• UK reports another record jump in deaths
• France extends lockdown after April 15
• Global case total tops 1.5 million while deaths near 90k
• Mnuchin reportedly tells Dems $98 billion loans approved
• Germany, Spain, France report latest numbers
• Christine Lagarde urges Eurogroup to work together
• EU extends border closure until May 15
• Italy reports slight acceleration in cases as deaths, ICU patients fall
• Sunak says Johnson "improving"
• NJ Gov's chief counsel tests positive
• NYC reportedly has enough ventilators to get through this week
• Scientists find evidence some recovered don't have antibodies
• Swss gov't sees GDP contracting as much as 10.4 % in 2020
• LA mayor orders businesses to enforce social distancing
• WHO's Dr. Tedros responds to Trump
• WHO again insists lockdowns must stay in effect
• Iraq extends border closure with Iran
• Indonesia outbreak continues to accelerate
• Ethiopia joins growing list of African states by declaring state of emergency

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Update (1900ET): France, Spain and Germany have all reported new numbers over the past couple of hours.

Spain reported 6,278 new cases and 747 new deaths for a total of 148,220 cases and 14,792 deaths.

Germany 5,118 new cases and, 230 new deaths for a total of 112,781 cases and 2,246 deaths. And in France, the health ministry reported 3,881 new cases, and 541 new deaths, for a total of 112,950 new cases and 10,869 deaths.

The data mostly confirm the recent trend,  that the outbreak in Continental Europe is 'peaking'.

Meanwhile, as Christine Lagarde at the ECB called on the Eurogroup to get it together and agree on a sufficiently forceful fiscal response to this crisis, while the European Commission, which just a month ago opposed border closures, announced Wednesday evening that it would extend its closure of the EU outer border until May 15.

Metro Detroit hospitals began to get overwhelmed with a surge of coronavirus patients starting last month. Local media at that time documented an increasingly chaotic situation at the city's Sinai-grace Hospital where patient rooms were filled with gowns and trash strewn across dirty floors — this as even cleaning crews weren't allowed in rooms, fearing exposure.

CNN reports that a dramatic standoff endued: "The night shift ER nurses at Sinai-Grace Hospital refused to leave the break room until hospital administrators brought in more nurses to help out, a physician at the hospital told CNN."

"Hospital administrators decided, after four hours of deliberation, they would not be bringing in any more nurses to help and that the nurses could get to work or leave the hospital, the doctor said," the report continues. Some did depart at that point, though it's unclear if the hospital will terminate their employment – it's presumed so.

One of the nurses later described of the confrontation with their bosses, "Tonight, it was the breaking point for us" — after for three straight weeks the ER had over 110 patients, at max capacity or more every night. 

"Because we cannot safely take care of your loved ones out here with just six, seven nurses and multiple (ventilators) and multiple people on drips. It's not right. We had two nurses the other day who had 26 patients with 10 (ventilators)," ER nurse Sal Hadwan said.

Sinai-Grace hospital leaders fired back, however, saying in a statement:

"We are disappointed that last night a very small number of nurses at Sinai-Grace Hospital staged a work stoppage in the hospital refusing to care for patients," Detroit Medical Center Communications Manager Jason Barczy told CNN. "Despite this, our patients continued to receive the care they needed as other dedicated nurses stepped in to provide care."

The statement placed the blame on the nurses for "refusing to care for patients," which is likely to add fuel to the fire.

Three in four Americans say they have completely (28%) or mostly (47%) isolated themselves from people outside their household.

The percentage who are self-isolating rapidly increased between March 16 and 26, but has shown only modest change since then.

These results are from a probability-based Gallup Panel survey, conducted online April 3-5. Currently, 16% say they are partially isolated, while 6% have isolated a little. Few Americans (3%) say they have not made any attempt to isolate themselves at all.

In the initial Gallup Panel survey, conducted March 16-19, Americans were about equally likely to report being isolated versus not isolated. The percentage who reported self-isolating increased to 64% in the week that followed, reaching 69% one week later.

Gallup found some differences by subgroup:

• The more dense the area where a person lives, the more likely they are to self-isolate. Residents of urban areas (84%) are more likely than those living in suburbs (79%) and rural areas (67%) to say they are completely or mostly isolated from people outside their home.

• Among political party identification groups, Democrats (84%) are most likely to report being completely or mostly isolated. Most independents (73%) and Republicans (66%) have isolated themselves to the same degree.

• Americans who are not currently working (84%) are more likely to report isolation than those who are currently working (69%).