Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Blain: Since Trump Came To Power, He’s Been The Single Most Dominant Mover Of Markets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Blain's Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Surely we should have clever people in Parliament?”… “Seems like a good idea, why don’t we try it?”

I’ve been writing the Porridge since 2007. I started in finance in 1985, and my career has been dominated by market moves, innovation, central banks, economic direction, and more recently political driven shifts. Through the whole of the Obama presidency I think I might have referred to Barak once or twice, and usually in passing. Since Trump came to power he’s been the single most dominant feature moving markets. Trump is a disruptor. 

Yesterday’s speech to the Economic Club of New York has been covered to death in the press – but the key takeaways are fascinating; renewed trade threats are just one aspect of how Trump is set to continue dominating markets: 

First, forget last week’s much hyped “trade truce” – Trump is still lollygagging about he’s still wondering whether to make a deal, and how China are waiting for him to opine on their options. It’s utter nonsense. A trade deal is at best a 50/50 call. It’s something that could happen, but equally it might not.  On one hand, any trade agreement is subject to Trump’s mood. Markets moving on a capricious president’s whims and hopes of winning an election does not seem like a promising foundation on which to base long-term investment strategies.

The reality is a trade agreement/accommodation with China is not in America’s gift – it’s a two-sided negotiation between two empowered nation states. It is not for Trump to dictate terms on the basis of how it plays to his electorate – Xi and the Chinese increasingly understand.  

Interesting to note the new BoA fund manager survey shows 50% of respondents are worried about the China/US trade war (39%) or a China slowdown (11%).  The reality is China dominates markets. Trump is the factor that can set it off. (16% fear a bond meltdown…)

Second, was Trump’s plea to the electorate via his Wall Street address – read all about it here. He can point to the S&P being 23% higher through 2019 – but we all know the level of the stock market sends


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“Ridiculous”: $1 Trillion In Orders For $7 Billion Chinese Bond

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In recent years, hardened bond market cynics snickered when insolvent European nations such as Italy or Greece saw 4, 5, or more times demand for their bond offerings than was for sale, whispering to themselves that such oversubscriptions for potentially worthless debt assure a very unhappy ending. Yet not even the biggest cynics were prepared for what just happened in China.

When Shanghai Pudong Development Bank sold $7 billion in convertible bonds last month, investors placed more than $1 trillion worth of orders, making this a 140 times oversubscribed offering, enough to shock even the most seasoned China investor, the FT reports.

That $1 trillion in bids was almost as large as the entire stock-market capitalisation of Apple or Microsoft — the two biggest companies in the world. "It was a ridiculous amount," said Gerry Alfonso, head of research at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in Shanghai. It is also a testament to how desperate the world has become in chasing yields and return, as well as just how much excess liquidity there is in the market at the moment

While new issue oversubscriptions have become the norm in recent years, this absurd case had several Chinese market unique characteristics, reflecting a surge in issuance of such equity-linked instruments in China — a rise helped by what the FT called "an unusual embrace of the product by policymakers better known for cracking down on financial innovations to ensure stability."

So far this year, Chinese companies have issued a record $40bn in convertible bonds, up more than 80 per cent from the full-year total in 2018, according to Dealogic.

It now appears that converts have become the latest Chinese bubble due to their hybrid characteristics: while they carry a (lower) coupon payment they also offer investors the right to switch them for equity if a company’s shares rise to a certain price. For companies, convertibles offer a way to raise money more cheaply than by issuing regular debt and do not immediately dilute shareholders’ equity.

Ronald Wan, chief executive at Partners Capital in Hong Kong, said Chinese convertibles had become more attractive to investors thanks to this year’s stock rally, while the government was promoting the instruments as a way to rein


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Video Shows American ISIS Member Stranded In Greek-Turkish Border ‘No Man’s Land’ 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A bizarre and unprecedented story is developing along the Turkish-Greek border after a day ago Turkish authorities expelled an alleged American member of the Islamic State, amid a broader initiative to deport hundreds of foreign terrorists who traveled to Syria from the West back to Europe and the US. 

“An Isis jihadist expelled by Turkey to Greece is literally stuck in the buffer zone separating the two countries after Greece’s refusal to allow entry into the territory.”

Stunning video posted the the internet confirms that the man, identified in Turkish and Greek media as 39-year old Muhammed Darwis B. and believed to be a US citizen of Jordanian descent, is walking around inside the few hundred meter long buffer zone between the border crossings, with each side's gates shutting him in.

It's unclear why Turkey would think Greek authorities would let him in, but it's also likely a political stunt by Turkish authorities to underscore its latest threats of what will happen if Europe is unwilling to repatriate the hundreds of European ISIS fighters currently in Turkish custody

In one video taken by a Turkish broadcaster, the man appears to shout for help at the camera while standing in the strip of land exactly between the crossings. 

The Guardian has further details which suggest he could be at the center of a developing diplomatic dispute between Ankara and Washington over potential repatriation to the US:

A Turkish official told AFP that he had refused to be returned to the US and instead asked to be sent to Greece. Athens said he was refused entry when he tried to cross the no man’s land between the two countries to the Greek town of Kastanies. He is reported to have spent the night outside and witnesses said he has been trying to shout to reporters on the Turkish side of the border.


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How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades.  As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles.  We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.

Price is the ultimate indicator in our view.  Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more.  When we apply our proprietary price modeling and price cycle tools, we can gain a very clear picture of what price may attempt to do in the near future and even as far as a few months into the future.  Price, as the ultimate indicator, truly is the mathematical core element of all future price activity, trends, and reversions. Before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

We have been using cycles since 2011 and have developed multiple proprietary price modeling tools over the past 5+ years that assist us in finding and timing great trades.  Most of what we have learned over the past 8+ years is refined into “experience and skill”.  When you follow the markets every day – every hour, for the past 8+ years and see various types of price and technical indicator setups and reactions, you learn to hone into certain setups that have proven to be highly accurate trading triggers.

Our research team had dedicated thousands of hours to develop the tremendous skills and experience to be able to produce accurate cycles, and to also interpret them, which is what we specialize in doing. Determining which cycles to trade may look simple, yet they are far from easy to trade without the setups and price rotation signals.

We use a blend of the top 4 active price cycles in the market which updates daily. This data allows us to know where future price is likely to move over the next few days and weeks.  Within this article, we’ll show you some of our proprietary price cycles and modeling tools to show you how we run some of our specialized trading tools.

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Boeing Backlash Builds: Airbus To Win Huge 120 Plane Order From Air Arabia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Two Reuters sources have been informed that Air Arabia, an Emirati low-cost airline, will abandon its interest in Boeing 737 MAX jets and order over 100 Airbus A320 jets as soon as next week.  

The decision comes after Boeing's 737 MAX jet remains grounded worldwide following two fatal crashes. 

The sources said the Emirati budget carrier would likely order 120 jets from Airbus at the Dubai Airshow next week. 

The order would more than double the size of the carrier that currently operates 55 narrowbody aircraft. 

The sources said Air Arabia was divided between Airbus and Boeing, but the two 737 MAX crashes created too many uncertainties for the carrier that had to side with Airbus for fleet expansion.  

Last month, Florida-based Spirit Airlines was assessing if it should buy Airbus or Boeing planes. It decided to order 100 new Airbus A320s over the 737 MAX. 

Airbus is on track this year, for the first time since 2011, to outpace Boeing in annual deliveries amid the 737 MAX groundings. 

Airbus expects to deliver 571 jets in the first nine months of 2019.

Delivers for A321 Neo jumped 57% for the first nine months, hitting a four-month high in September.

Boeing has since halted 737 MAX deliveries and cut production by 20% to 42 per month. 

The 737 Max crisis has allowed Airbus to take in a flood of new orders. 

Boeing is dealing with the company's most massive crisis in 100 years.

The backlashing against Boeing is only in the beginning innings. 

 

 





US Drones Capture Footage Of Pro-Turkish Forces Engaged In Shocking War Crimes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Entirely to be expected, a new report in The Wall Street Journal has found that Turkish-backed Syrian forces currently fighting US-backed Kurdish groups as part of 'Operation Peace Spring' are guilty of war crimes, including summary executions of Kurdish civilians

"U.S. military officials watched live drone feeds last month that appeared to show Turkish-backed Arab gunmen targeting civilians during their assault on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, attacks the Americans reported to their commanders as possible war crimes, according to current and former U.S. officials familiar with the incidents," reports the WSJ. 

What the report fails to mention, however, is the blatantly obvious and relevant recent history that the Islamist militants carrying out such atrocities are the very same militants which were a few short years ago funded, armed and trained by the CIA and Pentagon.

Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone file image

 

Erdogan's proxy ground invasion force known as the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (TFSA), more commonly called the Syrian National Army, has even recently been filmed deploying CIA-supplied TOW missiles against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as we previously detailed.

It's also been well-documented that the Turkey invasion forces of Syrian National Army are stacked with former ISIS, Nusrah, and FSA jihadists… who clearly brought their CIA toys with them.

And oh the Pentagon now wants you to know that US officials have suddenly become aware of their war crimes, despite the very same groups having carried out similar crimes against Syrian civilians for years as they fought pro-Assad forces. 

Meet the former US-supported FSA, now Turkish-backed FSA, who are committing the same war crimes in Syria they've been for years. 

 

Washington "won't stand for it" now that the FSA jihadists are no longer playing for 'Team America' per the WSJ report:

“The U.S. won’t stand for it, and we’ve made that position


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“Europe Is Dying” – 50,000 Polish ‘Patriots’ March To Save Country From “Disastrous European Union”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

More than 50,000 Polish nationalists paraded on the streets of Warsaw for this year's Independence March on Monday.

Tens of thousands of people, waving Polish flags, were young and old, of all walks of life, with whole families took to the streets. 

The people participating in the march branded themselves as patriots (the word which in Poland still has positive overtones) paying tribute to the fallen heroes.

Thousands sang "Take care of the whole nation," which are lyrics from a Polish Catholic song, asking the Virgin Mary to defend the country.

Others waved patriotic flags and chanted "No to the European Union" and "God, honor, homeland!"

To the western media, these are Nazis, racists, anti-semites, and islamophobes. An abomination for the European Union.

About 50,000 people attended the annual march said local government officials, but the Independence March Association said the figures were likely 150,000.

The march began on Monday afternoon in central Warsaw with lead organizer Robert Bakiewicz telling attendees that "We have to return to our roots. Our world has abandoned God and Christianity. We will die as the nations of western Europe are dying."

Poland shifted towards nationalism when Law and Justice (PiS) party came to power in 2015. 


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Europe On A Geopolitical Fault Line

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Europe On A Geopolitical Fault Line

Authored by Ana Palacio via Project Syndicate,

China has begun to build a parallel international order, centered on itself. If the European Union aids in its construction – even just by positioning itself on the fault line between China and the United States – it risks toppling key pillars of its own edifice and, eventually, collapsing altogether.

Two months ago, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his fear that a “Great Fracture” could split the international order into two “separate and competing worlds,” one dominated by the United States and the other by China. His fear is not only justified; the fissure he dreads has already formed, and it is getting wider.

After Deng Xiaoping launched his “reform and opening up” policy in 1978, the conventional wisdom in the West was that China’s integration into the global economy would naturally bring about domestic social and political change. The end of the Cold War – an apparent victory for the US-led liberal international order – reinforced this belief, and the West largely pursued a policy of engagement with China. After China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001, this process accelerated, with Western companies and investment pouring into the country, and cheap manufactured products flowing out of it.

As China’s role in global value chains grew, its problematic trade practices – from dumping excessively low-cost goods in Western markets to failing to protect intellectual-property rights – were increasingly distortionary. Yet few so much as batted an eye. No one, it seemed, wanted to jeopardize the profits brought by cheap Chinese manufacturing, or the promise of access to the massive Chinese market. In any case, the thinking went, the problems would resolve themselves, because economic engagement and growth would soon produce a flourishing Chinese middle class that would propel domestic liberalization.

This was, it is now clear, magical thinking. In fact, China has changed the international system much more than the system has changed China.

Today, the Communist Party of China is more powerful than ever, bolstered by a far-reaching artificial intelligence-driven surveillance


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“Confidence Could Crumble”: Global Markets Slide After Trump Threatens More China Tariffs, Hong Kong Tensions Soar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One day after Trump's long-awaited NY Economic Club speech proved to be a dud, with the president having nothing positive or "optimistic" to say about the China trade deal instead slamming the Fed again for not cutting rates to negative, the investing public today will focus on Fed Chair Powell's testimony in Congress in which he lays out his own take on things.

Until then, however, US futures and global stocks are a sea of red after Trump threatened to “substantially” increase tariffs if China failed to agree a trade deal and said there may also be tariffs to come for other countries “that mistreat us”, while European stocks followed Asia into the red following a subdued start, with Hong Kong tensions also denting sentiment.

"The market was anticipating something more positive from Trump, but he didn’t deliver,” said Legal and General PM Justin Onuekwusi. “In recent weeks, we saw the balance of probabilities shift to the positive side, risks being taken off the table, but people have realized that risk is still there,” Onuekwusi said. He’s been reducing his equity allocations.

The Eurostoxx 600 dropped 0.6% from four-year highs with banks and auto sectors weighing, while Treasuries led a bond rally, with the 10Y yield sliding from 1.94% to 1.87% one day after Dennis Gartman said the 30Y TSY bull market has run its course.

The value/momentum reversal is over, buy TSYs:

"the case can be made that the three decade long bull run in 30 Year Treasuries has run its course to the end." – Gartman

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2019

Wall Street was set to open weaker as well, equity futures showed, with the S&P 500 index indicated 0.5% lower; the S&P 500 backed off record highs after Trump spoke. Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures were also down 0.5%. The S&P 500 has risen 2% this month and 23% so far in 2019 thanks to interest rate cuts, trade hopes and NOT QE by the Fed even as the S&P is now officially in a profit recession.

Besides Trump slamming


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Aramco’s 658-Page Prospectus Fails To Answer The $2 Trillion Question

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The number of shares, the price and date of the listing remain shrouded in mystery today, even after Saudi Aramco released its long-awaited IPO prospectus.

What the 658-page document does say is that Aramco will list just 0.5 percent of its total stock to individual investors, and that the listing will begin on November 17 and end on December 4. This should imply Aramco shares will start trading on the Tadawul exchange in early December. This is also when Aramco will make public the price per share and the number of shares it will offer up for sale.

Investors, the prospectus also said, have until November 28 to request shares.

The Saudi state oil company has been making strides in its preparation for going public after months of uncertainty and doubts whether it would list at all and if it does, which overseas exchange it will choose. For now, the listing will be on Tadawul only, with the international one planned for a few years later, according to comments from Riyadh officials.

The 0.5 percent Aramco will offer in early December as per its schedule is a small portion of the 5 percent it plans to list, meaning the bulk of the shares will target institutional investors. At one point, there was even talk of doubling this to 10 percent, possibly based on doubts about the $2-trillion valuation of the company that Crown Prince Mohammed is aiming for.

Calculations of Aramco’s value from various banks put it in a rather large range of between $1.2 trillion and $2.3 trillion.

Last month, Aramco reported a net profit of $68 billion for the first nine months of the year at the same time as it announced an intention to float on the local stock exchange. In the same statement, the company said it planned to distribute $75 billion in dividends next year.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Below-Average Bull Market

 

Below-Average Bull Market

Courtesy of 

My Chart o’ the Day comes from LPL’s Ryan Detrick, who notes that:

Many consider this bull market the greatest ever, given it has incredibly lasted more than 10 years. But in terms of magnitude, many would be surprised to hear that the 357% gain during this bull market is still beneath the record 417% gain seen during the 1990s.

This bull market also isn’t the strongest in history in terms of gains, even though it has lasted longer than any other bull market…On an annualized return basis, this bull market has gained 15.3%, which is actual...



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Zero Hedge

"Apocalyptic Flooding": Stunning Images As Venice Endures 2nd Highest Tide In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Stunning images have come out of the historic city of Venice, which has been hit with catastrophic floods due to the second-highest tide recorded in the city's history bringing water levels high over city squares and foot paths, also amid extreme winds and rain.

Mayor Brugnaro has declared a state of emergency after the Tuesday tide peaked at just over 6-feet during the evening. The only time in recorded history the waters reached that high was in 1966, when the tide reached nearly six-and-a-half feet. 

...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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The Technical Traders

How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader - SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades.  As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles.  We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.

Price is the ultimate indicator in our view.  Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more.  When we apply our p...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Upbeat On Skyworks' Fundamentals

Courtesy of Benzinga

Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ: SWKS) reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenues, but the stock is slipping in reaction to the year-over-year declines in both metrics.

The Analysts

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya reiterated an Underperform rating and $92 price target for Skyworks shares. (See his track record ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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