Archive for the ‘The Technical Traders’ Category

Do Good Traders Make Good Gamblers?

Courtesy of Technical Traders


Without breaking the rules, have you ever made a trade that was guaranteed to make you money? A trade that was literally guaranteed to succeed.

If you’re struggling to come up with an answer, we’ll give you a helping hand, the word you’re searching for is likely no. Every financial trade ever made – no matter how sound and well researched using technical analysis – carries with it an element of risk.

Outside factors beyond your control always have the possibility of turning profits into losses and ecstasy into agony. In many ways, trading is similar to gambling. For instance, you may think you know how to play poker like a pro, but there is no sure-fire guarantee of consistently winning money.

With so many similarities between gambling and trading, is it safe to say that good traders make for good gamblers? Or put in another way, a technical trader using proven technical trading strategies becomes the “house” or the “casino” with winning-edge.

In fact, I love playing poker and blackjack because with some quick calculations and a strong emotional control you can become a winning gambler.

There are more bad gamblers than good ones

Just like in the world of trading, there are more bad traders and gamblers than there are profitable ones. It is the bad, sporadic, casual, and high emotion traders and gamblers that actually fund the industries.

Sports betting companies make most of their profits from ‘hunch gamblers’, those that place bets on a whim or the fabled ‘feeling’. One thing that gambling companies certainly do not like is informed betters or gamblers.

Of the countless tales of problem gamblers spending thousands on ridiculous bets, there are similar amounts of experienced successful gamblers having their accounts shut down because they are too good. At least this does not happen in the trading or investment word.

A good gambler costs the big companies money, therefore they market themselves to the casual gamblers. But if you put in your research, develop strategies and stick to them you can make plenty of money from gambling if you treat…
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Part III – Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise:  A) reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B) find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.

In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently.  The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars.  This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.

Our research suggests that given current global market factors, we are looking at a very narrow pricing structure for US fed rates that are completely dependent on consumer activities (consumer optimism and activity, perception of the economic opportunities and supply/demand price equilibrium).  Which is why we believe the next 15+ months could be very interesting for global traders and consumers.

We use a simple tool to track the levels and scope of the changing markets in various areas of the US and have noticed a dramatic increase in the numbers of Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures in various prime markets over the past 12+ months. Take a look at some of these maps.




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This is a Key Week for US Markets, Gold and Oil

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.


I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen

www.TheTechnicalTraders.com





Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.


Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now

The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?”

When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013.  This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors.  The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now.  The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels.  More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did).  But what is next with the US Fed turning…
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The Next Breakdown And The Setup

Courtesy of Technical Traders

If you’ve been following our research long enough, you’ll remember that we often discuss Fibonacci Price Theory and how we use it to try to identify opportunities and trends in the markets.  The basic premise of Fibonacci Price Theory is that price is always seeking to establish newer highs or newer lows with every rotation on the charts.  The theory is rather simple to understand and learn and it helps easily identify where support, resistance, and the trend is established.  Let’s take a minute to go over the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory before we continue.

This first example of Fibonacci Price Theory trend is a simple example that highlights the basic premise of the theory – price move always attempts to establish new price highs or new price lows in a trend.  Therefore, in a downtrend, we would attempt to observe price in a simple structure as you see on the left side of this example – establishing new lower lows and new lower highs in a series of waves.  In an uptrend, we would attempt to observe price in an opposite structure where new higher highs and new higher lows are set up.  Fairly simple so far – right?


In complex price rotations, we have to understand that we are changing the perspective of price trend when we are looking at different intervals of price data.  When we are investigating a 10-minute chart, we will see shorter-term Fibonacci price structure which may appear to be counter to our longer-term charts (Daily, Weekly or other intervals).  This is because the Fibonacci Price Theory works on all intervals and attempts to identify price structure and trend based on price rotations and true price structure.

In the complex example, below, we’ve drawn some samples that show price rotation within a trend.  The first example, on the left, is a continued DOWNTREND with a failed bullish high near the middle.  This happens often as price enters a congestion period.  Notice that after the initial new low, price rotated within a range, then broke out setting up the bullish “new high”, but then immediately failed and moved lower.  Sometimes you’ll hear us report this…
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August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from
months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from
hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the
August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our
research to heart. 

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown
date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+
months.  So, please understand that our
predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date, based on
our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may
lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown
event.  Thus, if you have already
prepared for this event – perfect.  If
this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown
prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following
research posts.

August 12, 2019: AUGUST 19 (CRAZY IVAN) EVENT ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY

August 7, 2019: OUR CUSTOM INDEX CHARTS SUGGEST THE MARKETS ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDE

July 30, 2019: AUGUST 19 PRICE PEAK PREDICTION IS CONFIRMED BY OUR ADL PREDICTIVE SYSTEM

July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS

Originally, our research team identified
July 2019 as a market top potential back in April/May 2019.  Later, our research team updated our analysis
to include the August 19 breakdown date prediction based on our advanced
predictive modeling tools and cycle analysis tools.  This became a critical event in the minds of
our research team because it aligned with much of our other predictive research
and aligned perfectly with what we were seeing in the charts as we neared the
Summer.

The top prediction for July 2019 by our
research team became true as we entered early August.  This confirmation of our research and
prediction back in April/May helped to solidify our belief that our August 19th
breakdown prediction would likely…
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Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.

Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe.  We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions.  We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.

We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :

Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING


Throughout our research, we referenced a number of current articles to determine our own outcomes and expectations.  Some of the articles we used as reference are listed below.

Sources for some of our research:

Each of these resources helped to create a bigger picture of what we believe will likely happen and how the process may unfold.  We’ll start by attempting to understand the core elements of the negative yield perspective and how/when it may change.

Negative yields are a result of expected economic malaise…
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PART II – Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets.  It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these predictions months in advance.  In this second part of our metals & Aug 19 update post, we’ll try to highlight our expectations going into the weekend prior to the Aug 19 breakdown date (Monday).

In the first part of this research post, we highlighted what we believe is the imminent completion of the MID Leg 1 upside move in precious metals.  Our research continues to suggest that we are still setting up a major LEG 1 upside move which should be considered a larger Elliot Wave structure.  Within this Wave (Leg) 1 formation, a typical 5 wave structure is likely to continue forming. Currently, we are creating the Wave 3 of the total of 5 waves that will complete a finished upside Wave (Leg 1).


If our analysis is correct, the peak that ends Wave 1 could be well above $2000 for Gold and well above $24 to $28 for Silver.  Then, of course, we’ll set up for a corrective Wave #2 before another, BIGGER, upside wave #3 sets up in precious metals.

Taking a look at this Weekly Silver chart, you may be able to see the waves as we see them..

_  The upside price move from Dec 14, 2015, to July 4, 2016 sets up the initial upside Wave 1 leg.

_  The low in November 2018 sets up the end of corrective wave B from the initial
bottom on December 14, 2015.

_ This setup suggests we are currently starting a Wave 3 upside move which
is usually 1.5x larger (or more) than Wave 1.

_ Keep in mind that we believe all of these “minor wave” formations are
part of a much larger 5 wave structure that is setting up. 

As you look at the Fibonacci diagram, above, remember that within each of…
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Today’s Stock, Metal, and Energy Forecasts – Aug 16 2019

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Good morning, Lots of great analysis including Bitcoin today.

Executive Summary:

– Stocks set to gap higher and at short-term resistance. We will see if sellers jump back into the market and drive prices lower to fill the gap. Its Friday so if we have a weak close in price near the lows then Monday could be another huge sell-off.

– Bonds are trading a major long term resistance trend channel on the monthly chart. I would expect bonds to stall and pullback over the next few months. The video shows this very clearly.

– Metals are giving mixed signals and gold hit our key price target and resistance area yesterday for a quick 22% profit.

– Oil and natural gas are still in downtrends but not giving much insight at this time.

 


 



GET MY TRADE ALERTS COMPLETE WITH ENTRY, TARGETS, AND STOPS SENT IN REAL-TIME!

JOIN ME AND TRADE WITH A PROVEN STRATEGY TODAY!

Chris Vermeulen

Technical Traders Ltd.

 

 





Precious Metals Reaching Initial Targets Prior to Aug 19 – Now What’s Next?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We have heard from so many of our followers
and members regarding our precious metals calls and research articles.  Additionally, many of our members and
followers have recently asked us about our August 19 breakdown prediction for
the US/Global markets.  In this research
post, we’ll highlight some of our expectations for the precious metals and how
that relates to the potential August 19 breakdown expectations.

October 5 ADL predictive modeling forecast chart

Our incredible October 5 ADL predictive modeling chart, below, highlights just how powerful some of our proprietary price modeling tools really are.  Imagine having the ability to look 10+ months into the future to be able to attempt to understand exactly what price may attempt to do and to be able to plan and prepare for these moves well ahead of the “setup”.  So far, our analysis of the precious metals has been spot on and we’ll continue to try to update our members and followers as this movement continues.


RECENT TRADE WITH 3X Gold ETF:

The ADL system hs played a large roll in our short term trading result for August already having closed 24.16% profit this month – See Here


This original prediction based on our advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system suggests price should be near or above $1600 by August/September 2019 (the higher yellow dash lines within the blue rectangle).  If these predictions continue to hold up as valid and true, then we would expect the price of Gold to target these levels as a “leg 1 move” then consolidate a bit before attempting to move higher.

Weekly Gold chart highlights our expectations

This Weekly Gold chart highlights our expectations for the current and future price rotations in Gold.  As you can see, we are still expecting a $1600 initial upside price target (shown as $1595) and a brief price rotation after that…
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Phil's Favorites

Brief Summary of Friday's stock market action

 

It was a good idea from Paul Krugman on Thursday, but by Friday, hopes for a sane approach to economic matters all but disappeared...

What about calling off the trade war that has been depressing business investment? This seems unlikely, because protectionism is right up there with racism as a core Trump value. And merely postponing tariffs might not help, since it wouldn’t resolve the uncertainty that may be the trade war’s biggest cost.

The truth is that Trump doesn’t have a Plan B, and probably can’t come up with one. On the other hand, he might not have to. Who needs competent policy when you’re the chosen one and the ...



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Zero Hedge

How Negative Interest Rates Screw Up The Economy

 

By Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, as published at Zero Hedge

Now they’re clamoring for this NIRP absurdity in the US. How will this end?

This is the transcript from my podcast last Sunday, THE WOLF STREET REPORT:

Now there is talk everywhere that the United States too will descend into negative interest rates. And there are people on Wall Street and in the media that are hyping this absurd condition where government...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bearish Divergences Similar To 2000 & 2007 In Play Again!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does history at important junctures ever repeat itself exactly? Nope

Do look-alike patterns take place at important price points? Yup

This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

In 2000 and 2007 bearish momentum divergences took place months ahead of the actual peak in stocks.

Currently, momentum has created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 for the past 20-months, as the seems to have stopped on a dime at its 261% Fibonacci extension level of the 2007 highs/2009 lows.

Joe Friday Just The Fact Ma’am; A negative sign for the S&P 500 with the divergence in play, would take place if support b...



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The Technical Traders

Do Good Traders Make Good Gamblers?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Without breaking the rules, have you ever made a trade that was guaranteed to make you money? A trade that was literally guaranteed to succeed.

If you’re struggling to come up with an answer, we’ll give you a helping hand, the word you’re searching for is likely no. Every financial trade ever made – no matter how sound and well researched using technical analysis – carries with it an element of risk.

Outside factors beyond your control always have the possibility of turning profits into losses and ecstasy into agony. In many ways, trading is similar to gambling. For instance, you may think you know ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.36 per share on revenue of $2.29 billion.
  • BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.38 billion.
  • DICK'S Sporting Good...


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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Everything awesome? Gold over $1500. Central banks are printing money to generate fake demand. Germany issues first ever 30 year bond with negative interest rate. Crazy times!

Even Australia and New Zealand and considering negative interest rates and printing money, you know a bunch of lowly populated islands in the South Pacific with no aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons. They will need to do this to suppress their currency as they are export nations, as they need foreign currency to pay for foreign loans. But what is next, maybe Fiji will start printing their dollar. 

Now for a laugh, this Jason Pollock sold for more than $32M in 2012. 





Ok, now call Dan...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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