Archive for the ‘The Technical Traders’ Category

Long-Term Consumer Discretionary Winners

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I was live on TD Ameritrade TV talking about consumer discretionary, staples, and utility sectors. Explained is a unique crossover on how some discretionary stocks are also becoming a consumer staple.


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Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Recent Gaps in price action in the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) presents a clear picture of future price targets and support/resistances.  Gaps are one of the most common forms of Technical Analysis techniques.  They represent “voids” where price activity has skipped a range of price as it advances or declines aggressively.

Gaps are commonly used as targets for future price activity – where price attempts to “fill the gap”. In Technical Analysis theory, any gap that appears should eventually be “filled” by price in the future.  Thus, any open gap that does not fill is still considered an “open target range”.

IWM PROVIDES A
UNIQUE PERSPECTIVE

We’re focusing on the Russell 2000 because we believe it provides a unique perspective on the markets related to the recent COVID-19 downside price swing and the recent recovery.  The Mid-Cap market sector tends to trend more quickly than the US major indexes and can sometimes provide a clear picture of more true price trends.

In this case, we’ve highlighted the downside price Gaps in YELLOW and the upside price Gaps in BLUE.  Two of the downside price Gaps have been filled recently as price advanced higher after March 21, 2020.  Additionally, the two highest downside price Gaps have also been filled
– leaving the lower two still open (unfilled).

This presents a very easy to understand the method of identifying future price targets for both bullish and bearish price trends.  Either price will rally to fill the upper Gap, near $163~166, or price will breakdown into a bearish trend attempting to fill the $125~130 Gap or the $108~109 Gap.

The recent low price level near $133.28 broke previous Fibonacci low price levels from May 29. Because of this, we believe the current trend is moderately Bearish.  We would like to see a new lower low setup to confirm this new trend.  When we consider the next price move in the Russell 2000 ETF, two very clear targets become evident, either the recent upper BLUE Gap range between $145~149 or the lower BLUE Gap range between $125~129.


IWM Weekly Chart

The IWM Weekly chart…
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Read Through the New Traders World Issue #77

Courtesy of Technical Traders

There are some great articles in this summer edition of the Traders World magazine. Click the image below to download and read – Enjoy!


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US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared, Part II

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In the first part of this research article, we briefly discussed the recent price and global economic events related to the 2018 to 2020 US stock market volatility and the COVID-19 virus event.  The premise of this research post was to highlight the current upside parabolic price trend that initiated shortly after the 2015~16 US election cycle event.  It is almost impossible to look at the NAS100 chart, below, and not see the dramatic upside price advance that took place after the November 2016 US elections.

It is almost as if the US stock markets had been primed by Federal Reserve intervention over the previous 5+ years and someone let the monster out of the cage.  The deregulation, changes to tax structures and general perception of market opportunity changed almost immediately after the November 2016 elections and really never looked back.

BUBBLE PSYCHOLOGY & PROCESS

A close friend of mine suggested the current tax structures provide a very clear advantage for corporations which allows them to retain a minimum of 14% more revenue annually.  This is a huge advantage for any profitable US corporation when one considers all aspects of tax laws. Additionally, President Trump changed the system from a “global” to a “territorial” structure. (Source:https://en.wikipedia.org)  This provided additional tax reductions for multi-national corporations and prompted US companies to stay within the US.  These new tax laws had a major impact on the bottom line after-tax revenues for thousands of US companies over the past 3+ years.

Yet, one has to earn a profit to be able to take advantage of these tax law changes and the COVID-19 virus event has put a serious dent in the earning capabilities of thousands of the US and foreign companies.  The Redbook YoY data, representing Retail and Consumer Merchandise activity, has continued to post negative levels that appear to be far greater than at any time over the past 20+ years.

How can one rationalize the upward parabolic price trend continuing while the consumer sector, the largest segment of US GDP, has collapsed to…
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Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Miners, Oil, Bitcoin

Courtesy of Technical Traders

 



 

 

 

 

 

Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Vermeulen

Chief Market Strategies

Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

 





Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We warned about this move many months ago and just 6 days ago we issued a research post suggesting Gold had cleared major resistance and would start a rally mode to push above $2000 – possibly above $2100.  Well, guess what happened right after we made that statement? Yup – Gold started to rally higher and is currently trading near $1790 – about to break $1800 for the first time in 2020.

You can read some of our most recent Gold articles below:

June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

June 18, 2020: Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time For Liftoff

June 20, 2020: All That Glitters When The World Jitters Is Probably Gold

HOW WILL GOLD REACT
IN THIS PARABOLIC RALLY?

What we really want you to focus on is the fact that Gold is rallying to levels above $1800 (near all-time highs) while the US stock market has entered an upside parabolic price trend.  What does it mean when metals are rallying and the stock market is rallying at the same time?  The supply-side of precious metals has been restricted because of the COVID-19 virus event and central banks have been accumulating Gold and Silver over the past 7+ years by large amounts.  This suggests central banks and precious metals traders believe metals prices will continue to skyrocket while the risks to the equities markets, credit markets, and global economy increases.

Gold prices climbed in the early 2000s after the DOT COM bubble burst (starting to rise in 2002).  The US stock market eventually bottomed near April 2003 – yet Gold continued to rally from near the $281 level to $992 in early 2008 – a massive +665% over just 5 years.

Gold continued to rally after some wild rotation near the 2008 peak in the US stock market.  Gold bottomed in…
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US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared, Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After the recent COVID-19 virus event and the global market concerns that will warrant caution for skilled traders and investors, the US stock markets have entered an upside parabolic trend that will likely end with a massive price collapse – extremely volatile and aggressive in nature.  Our research team continues to warn of the unpredictable nature of the current price rally and the fact that the upside parabolic price trend appears more prominent in the NASDAQ sector.  If history has taught us anything, it is that these types of parabolic moves can last a while and that they always end in a deep downside price correction – usually 61% to 75% of the last upside price trend.

Our research and trading team has been advising friends and followers to stay very cautious of the current markets (excluding Gold, Miners, and certain other protective sectors).  We don’t believe this rally warrants any exposure greater than 15 to 20% given the current global economic environment and the hyper-parabolic nature of the current price move.  We believe the opportunity presented by the upside advances does not negate the potential risks of a massive collapse event taking place in the near future.  In other words, we’re more cautious of how ugly and aggressive the end of this parabolic move will be than willing to try to find some opportunities in an already hyper-extended parabolic upside price trend.

Still, there are opportunities to be had in this trend for skilled short-term technical traders.  A number of sectors continue to perform quite well and using proper position sizing for trades may allow for quick targets of 5% to 10% or more.  We urge all of our friends and followers to be cautious of the current rally in the markets as we’ve only seen this happen three other times over the past 100 years: 1927~29, 1986~87, 1996~99.  The collapse after the 1929 peak resulted in a 90% decline in prices.  After 1987, the markets collapsed by nearly 36%.  After the DOT COM market peak in 1999, the markets collapsed near 51%.  Are the markets preparing for a massive collapse event right now with this hyper-parabolic upside price trend?

NASDAQ MONTHLY CHARTS

This monthly NQ, NASDAQ E-Mini Futures, chart highlights the upside parabolic price move that is currently taking place. …
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Semiconductors and AMD Close To A Breakout Move

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Being a technical trader means we attempt to identify opportunities in and market, symbol, or sector based on technical indicators, price patterns, advanced price theory/modeling, and much more.  We don’t particularly care if the opportunity is a bullish breakout rally or a bearish breakdown selloff, we simply want to find the “setups” that create this opportunity because that is our “sweet spot”.  That is where the technical trader lives for the excitement of being able to find these technical setups and potential trade them for profits/success.

AMD Cup &
Handle/Pennant Daily Chart

Let me teach you about two price patterns that are currently setting up in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) where we can attempt to illustrate how a combination of technical triggers may align to present a very clear opportunity for technical traders. 

This chart highlights a Cup & Handle pattern and a Bullish Pennant/Flag pattern.  Ideally, the combination of these two patterns would suggest a higher probability of an upside bullish breakout rally beginning near the apex of the Pennant formation. Yet, Pennant formations, and other types of technical patterns, can often present a “Washout sell-off in price” near the apex (or breakout area) as a means of shaking out stops before entering the next leg of the trend.

The “Washout” move happens as price tightens into a narrowing price channel and nears the end of a Pennant/Flag formation pattern. This typically results in a broader price move against the predicted technical pattern trend, in this case, down.  What happens is that traders tend to set stop levels just outside the tightening price channels as a means to protect against a price breakdown or rally against their position.  These stop orders present very real volatility targets when price begins the Apex breakout/breakdown event.  The price will usually rotate against the primary technical trend for a short period of time, taking out many stops in the process, then stall and begin to move in the direction of the technical pattern predicted trend, which would be a rally towards $72.

In this case with AMD, the Apex breakout move (to the upside) may be preceded by a price breakdown move near, or below, the $48 to $49 level– this is the “washout” move.  We’ve highlighted what we believe is the…
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A Stealth Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The stock has gone through many cycles since the 2000 tech bubble. The tech bubble was the last significant time the stock market’s popularity among individuals piqued their interest in such a huge way similar to what we see now in the markets.

Market legend Jeremy Grantham recently talked on CNBC about the price action in the markets is the “Real McCoy” of bubbles. We will get back to his insight later in this article, but let’s get into some technical analysis that helps us see when and where the market bubble could burst.  When it does, it’s going to seriously hurt all the newly unemployed and sports betting traders who don’t know better yet how the markets move.

The stock market and how it moves is always evolving. Since 2008 when the FED stepped into the bailout America, which manipulated the financial system, the markets have been riddled with new policies by presidents and the Fed.

Instead of letting the markets naturally correct and revalue stock prices with each economic cycle (which is more or less what happened in the past), now, leaders and central bankers don’t want to let the music stop.  Now they are pushing money into the economy and making the rules/policies/taxes better for each business.

Unfortunately, we know how all this fiscal stimulus and manipulation will ultimately end. Changing rules/policies, pumping money into the economy, and giving out free money, may help short term, but this only worsens everyone down the road. 

Currently, traders and investors think they have the fed acting like their parents to fall back on if things get tough and that there are no financial threats to a falling stock market. Traders are paying a premium for stocks and buying ever pause of dip. While all those traders may be feeling great with position and gains, they can and will likely all be wiped out soon enough if position sizing and risk management are not in place for each position held.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not a doomsday kind of person, but this is “Crazy Stuff” as Jeremy said in his recent interview.

Ok, now with that rant behind us, let’s move on to three simple charts that paint a clear picture because last week’s…
continue reading





How to profitably navigate trading and owning Gold, and Miners during the Next Bull or Bear Market in Stocks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Here is a quick view of where gold, the dollar, and miners have been, what to expect if the stock market starts a new bull market, and what to expect if we start a new bear market. Hope this helps ????



We posted this article that gold has cleared major resistance, which is the article I mentioned in the video – READ ARTICLE

Get My Trade Signals at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/ttt





 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

more from Kimble C.S.

Zero Hedge

Israeli Leaders Say West Bank Annexation Must Wait Due To COVID-19

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

What was surely supposed be the most controversial and provocative move in all recent Israeli-Palestine conflict history was supposed to be initiated yesterday, July 1st, according to prior target date statements of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex up to one-third of West Bank territory, including the Jordan Valley.

Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials claimed to have a 'green light' from the Trump administration, but at this point it's anything but certain. “We are in discreet talks with US officials here,” Netanyahu ...



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Phil's Favorites

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

 

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

We are slowly figuring out which drugs and therapies are effective against the new coronavirus. Anton Petrus / Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

 

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

We are slowly figuring out which drugs and therapies are effective against the new coronavirus. Anton Petrus / Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious ...



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ValueWalk

FedEx Corp.: Fundamentals Support the Price Increase

By F.A.S.T. Graphs. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Introduction

After reporting better than 4th quarter results on Tuesday, the stock price of FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) has been on a tear. With this article, I plan to demonstrate that the fundamentals support the current price rise. Moreover, the fundamentals also suggest that it is not too late to take a long-term position in this leading air freight and logistics company.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Yesterday, FedEx reported a surge in quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share compared to expectations of $1.52 per s...



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The Technical Traders

Long-Term Consumer Discretionary Winners

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I was live on TD Ameritrade TV talking about consumer discretionary, staples, and utility sectors. Explained is a unique crossover on how some discretionary stocks are also becoming a consumer staple.

Get My ETF Trade Signals, Entry, Targets, and Stop Levels – CLICK HERE ...

more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?


Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?


The question is always what will the future price action look like ?


This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.



There are two theories: ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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