Archive for the ‘The Technical Traders’ Category

BIG PICTURE LOOK AT WHAT IS DRIVING GOLD

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to take a look at the precious metals market and assess the other markets that need to be noted. We start with the USD and the recent relationship between the two. Next is the action in silver and platinum as they are playing catch up. Finally, we look at the US markets and the potential of a breakout higher or breakdown and how each of these would impact the PMs. Be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter


CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

I believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION! 


Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com





Global market Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week
and possibly much further into the future.

This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the
precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets. At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days.This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver.

Pay attention to how the ES, NQ, and YM react to trading as markets open on Sunday and Monday evening as well as the news events related to these issues. Any escalation of tensions and fighting between parties throughout the world will likely shed shock waves throughout the global economy as well as prompt a contraction in price levels. 

We attempted to warn all of our followers that the August 19th breakdown super-cycle event would likely present a massive potential for a price correction to the downside. These super-cycle events operate on a much broader scale and scope than most people realize.  A delay of 20 to 30 days for an event to begin is equal to a span of 10 seconds in the larger scope and perspective of these bigger events.  Pay attention as this move really begins to play out over the next 25+ days.

Weekly Gold Chart

This weekly gold chart has followed our expectations from April/May 2019 almost perfectly.  Our original target of just below $1600 has almost been reached.  Now, with the global chaos playing out in China, Hong Kong, and other locations, we believe Gold could rally well past the $1600 and possibly move as high as $1640 to $1675 before attempting to stall and rotate.

What is interesting is that the price of gold is hitting new highs is most other currencies. This is something we will talk about…
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Don’t Be A Loser, Understanding Trading Risks Is Crucial

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This article will most likely open your eyes and see a side of trading you usually don’t think about or possibly don’t understand, even though it is critical for your long term success as a trader and investor.

Not many people talk about trading risks and for a good reason. It’s not that exciting to most, and its a real sobering topic because its the reality of trading: trading is risky, and that you need to know how to manage risk appropriately and we don’t know how to do this. Most of us are generally too lazy to want to learn dry/boring subjects, especially when we don’t know much about them in the first place, and I’m guilty of this as well.

I urge you to take 4 minutes and read this trading risks explained in laymen terms below. At worst is a good refresher and will make you look at your current positions and see all your capital carries the same risk and if you are positioned for steady growth or potential account implosion if the asset class moves against you.

Understanding Trading and Investing Risk Types

RISK

noun       1.a situation involving exposure to danger: “flouting the law was too much of a risk” synonyms: possibilitychanceprobabilitylikelihooddanger, … more antonyms: impossibility

verb       1.expose (someone or something valued) to danger, harm, or loss:

There are many ways to define risk and different, disparate types of risk depending on investing in a home, doing business with a bank or investing in stocks, bonds, ETF’s, mutual funds, etc. 

We know inherently, given my last week’s piece on the increasing amount of foreclosures occurring in the largest cities in the US, where housing has been robust, cities like San Jose, CA, San Francisco, Phoenix, Chicago, etc, that there is currently increasing risk in purchasing real estate at lofty prices and hoping that the market stays hot; that if you had to resell the real estate in the next few years one could get out at a similar price to the purchase price or even higher. 

Given that we are towards the end of a boom housing cycle, this is probably not…
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Could Hong Kong Disrupt China & The Global Markets Further?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Reading the news this weekend and watching the chaos in Hong Kong, one has to wonder how this violence and disruption in commerce is really affecting the Asian and global markets.  Many different news sources are already reporting that Chinese economic data continues to show weakness over the past 4 to 5+ months. 

Additionally, Hong Kong, being a strategic source of income and business for the western world, has been disrupted with riots, protests and not violence as a result of a political battle between Chinese rulers and local Hong Kong residents.

It seems obvious to anyone outside of this situation that neither side is about to stop their actions any time soon and that means we are going to experience even further disruptions to the global markets and local markets.  Right now, our greatest concern is that the disruption in economic activity in China/Asia will result in a “cold” in the US and other foreign markets. 

Our August 19th call for a potential US market breakdown was stalled because of recent news that China and the US would begin talks again attempting to resolve the trade issues.  Yet, we know these talks may last many months with no real progress in terms of lifting tariffs or real concrete outcomes.  We don’t believe the US is going to remove tariffs or ease up on trade-related factors until we see real progress made by China.  This would suggest we are in for a long-haul in terms of real relief in the markets.

Our research team still stands behind our August 19th breakdown call.  Our super-cycle research suggests that the US and global markets are poised for a price breakdown and we believe the recent news events have stalled this price move.  Particularly, we point to the nearly -1100 point price drop on August 22 through 26, just days before the news that China was willing to engage in new talks with the US about trade.  This move would have likely continued to break lower, as we predicted, had the Chinese not announced their intent to try to relieve pressures on the economy and the global economy. Before we get into more details, be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas
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S&P500 Candlestick Pattern On Friday Signals Price Breakdown

Courtesy of Technical Traders

As we close out the week and watched the markets trade in a rotational price manner, it became very clear to us that the patterns setting up in price continue to support our overall analysis of the markets and the potential for a bigger downside price move.  We issued a call that an August 19th breakdown was expected on or near the trigger date (Aug 19).  We’ve taken some heat from our followers and readers regarding this call and the fact that the markets have yet to really breakdown below current support levels.

As we’ve learned from our experience and previous analysis/calls – the markets can continue to act in ways that run counter to our analysis for much longer and in a much more irrational manner than we can survive the risks associated with any irrational price moves.  Yet, at this point, we don’t see anything irrational in the markets – we see opportunity.

Until price confirms otherwise, our believe is that price will attempt to move lower – establishing new lows. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

Important Japanese Candlestick Reversal Patterns

The Doji Star and Shooting Star Japanese Candlestick patterns are part of a unique group that identifies potential price reversals, support/resistance and can often build into other types of patterns.  Our belief is these setups in the current chart will eventually create an Evening Star formation with a downside price move early next week.  This type of pattern would confirm resistance near the body of the current Doji or Shooting Star candlestick and also confirm our analysis that a price breakdown should continue.


SP500 – ES Daily Chart Highlights the Doji Reversal Pattern

This ES Daily chart highlights the Doji pattern created by the close of Friday trading near 2923.75.  The fact that price narrowed on Friday into a Doji pattern forming below the previous highs suggests general weakness in price and a possibility that early next week we may see price breakdown to complete a Harami or Doji Star Reversal Pattern.


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Markets Ready to Pop, But Up or Down?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

 


 


CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION! 


Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 





Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments.  Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members. 

One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY.  Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter

You can read our original research here:

July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

July 26, 2019: ENERGY SETS UP TWO NEW TRADES – HERE THEY ARE

While the original setup resulted in a fantastic trade setup and completion – where both targets hit and the price extended more than $10 beyond our Target 2, we are now alerting you that ERY will likely set up another, even bigger, opportunity over the next 30+ days.

We believe our previous research, particularly related to Crude Oil, will result in ERY rotating lower over the next 20+ days, possibly towards the $50 level, before setting up another momentum base and beginning an upside move targeting the $70 to $75.  If our research is correct, this move will come at a time when global markets are expecting must slower economic activity and/or a massive supply glut in Oil.

Daily ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)

This Daily ERY Chart shows the original trade setup that occurred after our July 26 post and includes the original target levels drawn as YELLOW ARROWS on the chart.  It is easy to see the success of this trade and how ERY rotated higher as Crude Oil weakened.


Weekly ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)

This Weekly ERY chart highlights what we believe will be the next trade setup which will start to complete the momentum base sometime near…
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Precious Metals About To Pull A Crazy Ivan

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.

The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible.  The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well.  The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold.  Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold.  This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

What is the Crazy Ivan event?  It is our belief that Gold and Silver will attempt to rally well beyond levels most analysts have been predicting for this year.  In fact, we believe Gold could be trading above $1750+ before the end of 2019 because of this Crazy Ivan event that we believe is unfolding right now.  This event is based on our belief that a massive shift in the capital will take place as soon as the US major indexes break below key support.  Once this support is broken, we believe the Crazy Ivan event will really begin to take form.

Gold Weekly Price Chart

Our research team believes Gold will have one last period where the price will pause before attempting to rally much further.  In fact, we believe Gold will potentially retrace to levels near or below $1500 one last time before the real Crazy Ivan event is unleashed.  This means we should be patient and wait for the next setup in Gold and Silver before jumping into any new trades.

Gold should pause near $1600, roll a…
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Has the Basing Setup In Natural Gas Completed?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Back in June 2019, we posted a research article suggesting that Natural Gas was setting up an extended basing pattern below $2.35 preparing for a seasonal rally that typically initiates in late August or early September.  We believe the basing pattern has nearly completed and now is the time to begin positioning for the upside price rally that we believe will hit in Natural Gas as early a September 5th or so.

Our original research posts to review :

June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE

June 25, 2019: NATURAL GAS SETS UP BOTTOM PATTERN

Our research tools suggest that September has a 65% probability of rallying more than 6x the historical range.  This would suggest a rally potential of more than $2 exists in September for Natural Gas. Our tools also suggest that October has a 75% probability of rallying more than 3.2x the historical range. This would suggest a potential rally of more than $1.20 in October. 

Combine those potential moves and probabilities over a 60-day span and we are talking about a $2.50 to $3.50 potential price rally with a 70%+ historical probability of success. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter.

Daily Natural Gas Chart

This Daily Natural Gas Chart highlights the price rotation as price continued to base below the $2.40 level. We’ve also highlighted the basing range as a blue rectangle on this chart. We expect the upside move to begin in early September and to continue to rally towards the $2.75 level before finding initial resistance. It is very likely that this rally will build momentum as we end October and start into September. It will not be “straight up” as we have drawn on this chart.


Weekly Natural Gas chart

This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights our longer-term expectations for the price rally. The initial move will likely end just below $3.00 (likely in the $2.75 to $2.95 range). After that level is reached, we expect a bit of resistance as price rotates near the Bullish Fibonacci Price Trigger Level, then rallies beyond it to target levels…
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ES Must Hold Above 2800 Or The Selling Will Intensify

Courtesy of Technical Traders

First off, we were so happy to hear from all of our followers over the weekend and early today regarding their support for our incredible market predictions – specifically the call about the August 19th breakdown prediction.  We stuck to our guns believing in our predictive modeling systems and our research team.  We knew it would be just a matter of time before the weakness our models were showing us to actualize in a real price breakdown. We want to thank all of you who wrote to us and thanked us and our team for their hard work and dedication.

Now, we’ll highlight some recent events in the ES chart (S&P500 E-Mini Futures) and how it related to the bigger
picture in the markets.

Before we get into the details of the market recovery today, we want all of you to understand that is natural for the markets to move in rotational waves as price establishes new highs or lows. In fact, it is essential and healthy for the markets to do this.  When the markets move in an unnatural way by trending excessively over short periods of time, it reflects an imbalance in the fundamentals of the markets or the core elements of supply/demand economics. When the bottom falls out of a market, for example, it is usually because of some type of external news item or some other type of external factor/event. The markets themselves naturally have a way of processing expectations and price value through the process of buying and selling in an open market.

Therefore, as we continue this research post, please understand that any further price breakdown will likely become a process of price waves or rotations over the next few days and weeks that continue to break the most recent series of upward sloping highs and lows (from January 2019 till July 2019). But first, be sure to opt-in to our free stock market forecast newsletter.

Let’s get started with the analysis.

240 Minute ES Chart Highlights

This first 240 minute ES chart highlights the intraday rotational price structure and how the Fibonacci price modeling system is currently identifying 2850 to 2897 as a key Support/Resistance level for the price.  Initially, as the breakdown in price happened on Friday and late Sunday, price blew past…
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Zero Hedge

Economic Confidence Drops To Lowest Since Shutdown As Dems Freak Out Over Imminent Recession

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Megan Brenan of Gallup

  • 49% in U.S. think a recession is at least fairly likely in the next year
  • Economic Confidence Index +17 in September, down from +24 in August
  • ...


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The Technical Traders

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning
with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.

The one aspect that many traders don&rsqu...



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Phil's Favorites

Partisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives

 

Partisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives

Even in the physical world, it’s hard to cross partisan lines. igorstevanovic/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Robert B. Talisse, Vanderbilt University

When people try to explain why the United States is so politically polarized now, they frequently refer to the concept of &ldq...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Statement On Repurchase Operation - Roll Over Beethoven!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of NY | Press Releases. Original: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operation. Reposted with permission. 

September 19, 2019

In accordance with the FOMC Directive issued September 18, 2019, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct an overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operation from 8:15 AM ET to 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, Friday, September 20, 2019, in order to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

This repo operation will be conducted w...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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