Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.
Ben1Be
Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.
Dstillwe
Wishing Phil and all fellow PSW members a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year 2017! Thanks to all of you for your insights and comments which help make me a better investor every day. Wishing everybody the best of luck for 2017
Learner
Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!
Traderd
Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!
Jelutuck
Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!
Louis631
Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...
Becker
I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.
Winston
PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.
Winston
Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"
Gel1
Phil, did you by chance publish the weekly webinar on Youtube yet? I have been watching these and they are awesome. Unfortunately, I can't cut out of work to attend live webinars. Again, they are just awesome content – thank you.
jcpdx
Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.
Seeking Truth
It was a nice day thanks to your help! Made over $1100 shorting TF every time it came up near 1260 and even more by going long oil before inventory under $46 and then waited patiently for the spike up into the close where I shorted it at 47.70 or so. Phil you gave me a road map and I simply followed the signs along the way.
Craigsa620
Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!
zeroxzero
Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke
Coke
Praising PSW for enlightenment is a bit akin to praising the Pope for being holy. I've been reading PSW for about two months now and have learned more about investing technique and the world in general than I've learned from the books and seminars I've paid for. Thanks for the enlightenment, the education, the guidance and the truth, which is not a commodity these days, but a virtue in short supply.
Andy Morris
I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.
Autolander
Hello Phil, Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!
Microflux
Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.
Smasher
Phil - I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. What would you advise for getting long again. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us!
TXChili
The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)
Chaps
Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!
Howard Roake
Thanks to your teaching and guidance, I was able to make a killing on my /TF shorts. I averaged into 12 shorts at 1252 and got out of 6 at 1242 and 6 more at 1235. Last week I did the same with /CL, though I got out too early and left $2 on the table. Thank you!
Japarikh
Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…
Pharmboy
Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!
Iflantheman
Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.
Judahbenhur
Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too. I've learned so much and I hope you'll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way.
Where
That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.
Kwan
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Captain Mogul
I have been trading for quite a few years and in good years made about 25%. After joining PSW, I followed closely the PSW strategy and my trading profit for this year is close to 70% to date. For fun, I like to mix in a few "Hail Mary" plays that really worked out well, but overall the simpler Buy/Write strategy, as presented by Phil so often, created the majority of the profit.
Gel1
by kimblechartingsolutions - July 2nd, 2019 9:32 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The chart looks at Bitcoin on a weekly basis over the past 6-years. The long-term trend remains up, as it continues to create higher lows inside of rising channel (1. This pattern has been taking place since the 2013 lows.
We applied Fibonacci retracement levels to the 2017 highs and 2018 lows. The rally off the 2018 lows saw Bitcoin hit its Fibonacci 50% retracement of the large decline.
While testing the key Fibonacci retracement level, it created a large bearish wick pattern (Bearish reversal pattern) at (2), while attempting to close above the 50% level.
In the short-term, it looks to be very important that Bitcoin remains above rising support at (3). If this support would fail to hold after this large bearish reversal pattern, odds increase that it will experience some selling pressure in the short term.
–
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
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by ilene - July 2nd, 2019 2:47 am
With no physical form, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin is difficult to analyse and its trading patterns challenging to discern. Shutterstock
Courtesy of Nikola Gradojevic, University of Guelph
As Bitcoin tries to regain some of the lustre it held in late 2017 when it nearly reached US$20,000 in value, investors are still questioning how to predict such a volatile currency.
As a cryptocurrency, there is no physical form that gives Bitcoin value, so it is impossible to perform traditional fundamental analysis of the currency. Consequently, many investors track the so-called technical trading indicators (geometric patterns constructed from historical prices and trading volumes) in order to understand and predict Bitcoin’s future movement.
Some researchers have found success with large complicated models. But these sometimes have hundreds of variables (or predictors) and it is difficult to determine key factors or test the replicability of such approaches. It’s also hard to understand what factors really drive Bitcoin fluctuations on the market.
For over 20 years, I have been researching the applications of AI in finance. At the Lang School of Business and Economics at the University of Guelph, my co-author and former graduate student Robert Adcock and I created an artificial neural network (ANN) model to test the predictability of Bitcoin prices.
We used technical indicators called moving averages as predictors. Moving averages are constructed by averaging prices over a period of time (e.g. 50 or 200 days) and plotting them as a line along with the prices. The rationale for using moving averages is that if the price of Bitcoin today becomes greater or lower than the average price over the past 50 or 200 days, traders could expect the emergence of an upward or downward trend.
If Bitcoin is unpredictable, then our model is not expected to beat the random walk model — essentially, it is no better than guessing.
However, our model provided some very interesting results regarding Bitcoin’s predictability over time and during bouts of unusual volatility.
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by ilene - June 22nd, 2019 3:55 pm
The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise
Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London
The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what is perhaps the most profound development since the birth of cryptocurrencies through the launch of bitcoin a decade ago.
JP Morgan Chase has been leading the way, having announced JPM Coin earlier this year, the first cryptocurrency issued by a big international bank. When trials begin in the coming months, each JPM Coin will be redeemable for one US dollar, protecting this cryptocurrency from the volatility characteristic of the likes of bitcoin.
One of the main reasons for JP Morgan launching these coins is to offer large corporate clients a way of making international payments in real time. This could gradually replace the current global interbank funds transfer network known as SWIFT, whose wire transfer payments can sometimes take a whole business day to settle.
A few weeks later, the IMF and World Bank jointly announced the launch of Learning Coin, a private blockchain and quasi-cryptocurrency designed to help them better understand the technology. Facebook, too, was reported to be interested in launching a cryptocurrency.
Meanwhile, financial firm 20|30 became the first company to float on a mainstream regulated trading platform using blockchains, when it issued shares in the form of “equity tokens” similar to a cryptocurrency on the London Stock Exchange.
It is all a far cry from the rationale for creating bitcoins and blockchains in the first place: to decentralise finance away from the dollar-dominated system of fiat currencies and to gradually render financial institutions obsolete.
Yet this space remains attractive to those seeking to undermine US financial hegemony. Iran and Russia are both looking at launching state-backed cryptocurrencies, in response to US threats to disconnect them from the SWIFT payments system. This would enable these countries to join other blockchain-based payment networks, with the…
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by Zero Hedge - June 22nd, 2019 10:06 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge
One day after we reported that Bitcoin futures traded above $10,000 as crypto derivatives markets "are gearing up towards another big weekend as bitcoin approaches $10k", not only did the spot price surge above $10,000 but just a few hours later – in a vivid replay of December 2017 – the cryptocurrency promptly took out $11,000 as well.
“The bounce back of Bitcoin has been fairly extraordinary,” said George McDonaugh, chief executive and co-founder of London-based blockchain and cryptocurrency investment firm KR1 Plc.
“Money didn’t leave the asset behind, it just sat on the sidelines waiting to get back in.”
Cryptos are a sea of green this morning after a big overnight session…
Volume spiked as Bitcoin surged past $10k…and accelerated above $11k – the highest since March 2018
Ethereum also spiked above $300…the highest since Aug 2018
In contrast with last year, Bloomberg notes that there are now signs of renewed mainstream interest in cryptocurrencies and the underlying blockchain technology, most prominently Facebook's Libra. The social-media giant is working with a broad group of partners from Visa to Uber to develop the system, which has already attracted attention and criticism from politicians raising privacy and security concerns.
image courtesy of CoinTelegraph
This lifts Crypto's total market cap above $333 billion, the highest since June 2018…
As CryptoSlate.com's Priyeshu Garg notes, while many were quick to dismiss the effect Libra could have on the broader crypto market, it seems that the highly-anticipated digital asset is already making waves throughout the industry. Despite the problems it faces -which include centralization and lack of privacy – Libra was still celebrated by some in the crypto community.
Garry Tan, the managing partner at Initialized Capital, said that Libra’s launch was a “big day” for the crypto industry, as it has the potential to transform the crypto market. Tan pointed out that Facebook has 2.4 billion users, while WhatsApp, the messaging giant owned by Facebook, has over 1.5 billion. Recent studies estimate the number of…
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by ilene - June 19th, 2019 7:39 pm
Courtesy of Pam Martens
Congresswoman Maxine Waters
In response to the stunning announcement from Facebook that it is planning to launch a cryptocurrency, Congresswoman Maxine Waters, the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, issued the following statement yesterday:
“Facebook has data on billions of people and has repeatedly shown a disregard for the protection and careful use of this data. It has also exposed Americans to malicious and fake accounts from bad actors, including Russian intelligence and transnational traffickers. Facebook has also been fined large sums and remains under a Federal Trade Commission consent order for deceiving consumers and failing to keep consumer data private, and has also been sued by the government for violating fair housing laws on its advertising platform.
“With the announcement that it plans to create a cryptocurrency, Facebook is continuing its unchecked expansion and extending its reach into the lives of its users. The cryptocurrency market currently lacks a clear regulatory framework to provide strong protections for investors, consumers, and the economy. Regulators should see this as a wake-up call to get serious about the privacy and national security concerns, cybersecurity risks, and trading risks that are posed by cryptocurrencies. Given the company’s troubled past, I am requesting that Facebook agree to a moratorium on any movement forward on developing a cryptocurrency until Congress and regulators have the opportunity to examine these issues and take action. Facebook executives should also come before the Committee to provide testimony on these issues.”
Related Articles:
Facebook’s Experiment and its CIA Roots
Wall Street’s Banksters Are Clandestinely Trading the “Digital Gangster” Stock of Facebook
Is It Social Media or Corporate Surveillance? Facebook’s Business Model
Facebook Opens Door to More Federal Probes by Asking Banks for Data
Could Technology Doom Facebook, Koch Industries and JPMorgan Chase?
Has Facebook and Cambridge Analytica Put Democracy at Risk in Both the U.S. and U.K.?
Wall Street’s $100 Million in Trading Profits in Facebook
…
Published originally at Wall Street on Parade.
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by ilene - June 19th, 2019 2:05 am
The world’s newest country? railway fx/Shutterstock.com
Courtesy of Jennifer Grygiel, Syracuse University
Facebook has announced a plan to launch a new cryptocurrency named the Libra, adding another layer to its efforts to dominate global communications and business. Backed by huge finance and technology companies including Visa, Spotify, eBay, PayPal and Uber – plus a ready-made user base of 2 billion people around the world – Facebook is positioned to pressure countries and central banks to cooperate with its reinvention of the global financial system.
In my view as a social media researcher and educator, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is clearly seeking to give his company even more political power on a global scale, despite the potential dangers to society at large. In a sense, he is declaring that he wants Facebook to become a virtual nation, populated by users, powered by a self-contained economy, and headed by a CEO – Zuckerberg himself – who is not even accountable to his shareholders.
Facebook hasn’t behaved responsibly in the past, and is still wrestling with significant public concerns – and investigations – about its privacy practices, information accuracy and targeted advertising. Therefore, it’s important to see through the hype. People must consider who is reshaping the world, and whether they are doing it in the best interests of humankind – or whether they are just seeking to benefit the new class of elite technology executives.
Humanity needs ethical leadership, and time to think through the potential repercussions of rapid technological change. That’s why, in my view, Facebook’s cryptocurrency should be blocked by financial regulators until its design has been proved to be safe for all of global society.
You might not want to trust this man. Anthony Quintano/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY
Technology companies are interested in a global currency that is native to the internet. That could allow companies like Facebook and Twitter to bring in more users…
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by ilene - June 19th, 2019 1:53 am
Courtesy of Jay L. Zagorsky, Boston University
Facebook is joining the cryptocurrency craze. Should we be concerned?
The social network site on June 18 said it’s launching a new cryptocurrency called Libra with the help of 27 partners, including MasterCard, Visa, ebay and Uber.
In simple terms, Libra is meant to replace the paper bills in your wallet or purse with a digital equivalent. But unlike other cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, Libra will be directly backed by assets.
The white paper describing the vision for this new currency is filled with laudable goals such as creating economic opportunity and advancing financial inclusion. But it will take time to completely understand the ramifications of Libra, which Facebook hopes to launch in 2020.
As a macroeconomist, I believe there are economic benefits to Facebook’s cryptocurrency – but also some big potential downsides.
Existing cryptocurrencies are not tied to physical assets. This makes them immune to the whims of national governments but also makes them prone to speculative bubbles and flash crashes.
Libra, on the other hand, is going to be 100% backed by assets. Every unit of Libra currency will be backed by an equivalent basket of bank deposits and short-term government securities in various major currencies.
As a result, Libra will not suffer wild price fluctuations. And since it will be backed by a collection of international currencies and assets, it won’t be tied to the fortunes and policies of one country either.
Economist Friedrich Hayek believed in the decentralization of currency. The Mises Institute, CC BY
Another effect of being backed by assets is that it may help lower the risk of high inflation in countries across the world. Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek made this very point in his book “The Denationalisation of Money.” Hayek believed everyone would be better off if people could pick among different types of private money, like Libra, instead of using government-issued money. Hayek believed issuing private money would banish inflation…
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by Zero Hedge - June 3rd, 2019 8:23 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.
While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.
The entire crypto space is down 8-12%…
With Bitcoin back below $8000 and oddly attracted lower to Nasdaq's collapse…
However, as CoinTelegraph reports, macro strategists remain bullish, despite the recent overnight crashes (many of which appear to synchronize around the Korean morning). The following factors have been mentioned in recent weeks as potential catalysts for an increase in bitcoin’s price:
Rise in institutional demand, as seen in the drastic increase in Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) premium.
The entrance of major financial institutions such as Fidelity, Etrade and TD Ameritrade.
Scheduled block reward halving of bitcoin in May 2020.
A noticeable improvement in the infrastructure supporting the asset class.
Rising institutional demand, triggering the recovery of retail interest.
Technical analysts in the crypto sector, such as Josh Rager and Cred, foresee $8,200 as a crucial support level that could prevent the asset from dropping to the $7,000 region once again.
The last time bitcoin’s price dropped below $7,000 was in a flash crash on March 17, when it fell to $6,400, triggered by the unexpected sell-off of 5,000 BTC on Bitstamp, which then led to the mass liquidation of contracts on BitMEX.
Bitcoin has since demonstrated strong momentum, with signs of “fear of missing out” (FOMO) among investors, creating a vertical rally to the upside.
Cred told Cointelegraph in an interview that, as long as the $8,200 support level is defended, a rise to $9,600 remains a realistic target and a high time frame resistance level.
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by ilene - May 18th, 2019 1:41 am
The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise
Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London
The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what is perhaps the most profound development since the birth of cryptocurrencies through the launch of bitcoin a decade ago.
JP Morgan Chase has been leading the way, having announced JPM Coin earlier this year, the first cryptocurrency issued by a big international bank. When trials begin in the coming months, each JPM Coin will be redeemable for one US dollar, protecting this cryptocurrency from the volatility characteristic of the likes of bitcoin.
One of the main reasons for JP Morgan launching these coins is to offer large corporate clients a way of making international payments in real time. This could gradually replace the current global interbank funds transfer network known as SWIFT, whose wire transfer payments can sometimes take a whole business day to settle.
A few weeks later, the IMF and World Bank jointly announced the launch of Learning Coin, a private blockchain and quasi-cryptocurrency designed to help them better understand the technology. Facebook, too, was reported to be interested in launching a cryptocurrency.
Meanwhile, financial firm 20|30 became the first company to float on a mainstream regulated trading platform using blockchains, when it issued shares in the form of “equity tokens” similar to a cryptocurrency on the London Stock Exchange.
It is all a far cry from the rationale for creating bitcoins and blockchains in the first place: to decentralise finance away from the dollar-dominated system of fiat currencies and to gradually render financial institutions obsolete.
Yet this space remains attractive to those seeking to undermine US financial hegemony. Iran and Russia are both looking at launching state-backed cryptocurrencies, in response to US threats to disconnect them from the SWIFT payments system. This would enable these countries to join other blockchain-based payment networks, with the…
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by ilene - May 16th, 2019 5:55 pm
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown
Today on the mini pod I asked my friend, fellow advisor and crypto currency expert Tyrone Ross. We talked about what’s happening, who is buying and what the next catalyst might be.
You can listen below…
Make sure to subscribe to The Compound Show on iTunes or Spotify
Or – enable our Alexa skill here – “Alexa, play the Compound show!”
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September 15th, 2019 10:14 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.
China's yuan extended its early losses, testing down to the fix after headline economic data disappointed across the board.
Industrial Production rose just 5.6% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.8% prior)
Retail Sales rose just 7.5% YoY (below the +7.9% exp and down from +7.6% prior)
Fixed Asset Investments rose just 5.5% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.7% prior)
Property Investment rose just 10.5% YTD YoY (down from +1...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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