Archive for the ‘Crypto Corner – Bitcoin, ETC’ Category

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

 

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend.

This is not a bubble…it is a sea change.

I am extremely confident there is enough capital and profits in the digital/crypto world that will never make it back to the physical world that the pace of development and spend will continue to accelerate.

All kinds of unintended consequences lie ahead.

 





Bridgewater Explains When It Will Invest In Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Two weeks ago, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio called Bitcoin "one hell of an invention" adding that:

"I expect Bridgewater to soon offer an alt-cash fund and a storehold of wealth fund in order to better deal with the devaluation of money and credit that we consider to be a major risk and opportunity, and Bitcoin won’t escape our scrutiny.”

And now, after significant attention that his comments received, Senior Portfolio Strategist Jim Haskel sits down with Director of Investment Research Rebecca Patterson for the following podcast to further explore these questions:

How does Bitcoin compare to gold as a storehold of wealth?

What would a shift from gold to Bitcoin mean for Bitcoin’s price?

What is the future of Bitcoin regulation?

This latest clip from Bridgewater is a follow-up to their recent lengthy treatise on Bitcoin as a store of wealth.

TL;DR: Overall, it’s clear that Bitcoin has features that could make it an attractive storehold of wealth; it also has proven resilient so far. Future challenges may still come from quantum computing, regulatory backlash, or issues we haven’t even determined yet.

*  *  *

A Look at the Path for Bitcoin If It Is to Become an Alternative Storehold of Wealth

Rebecca Patterson, Dina Tsarapkina, Ross Tan, Khia Kurtenbach

With most central banks around the world acting to depreciate their currencies at a time when bond yields are already converging to zero, it’s reasonable to look for alternative storeholds of wealth. Bitcoin, by far the leader among cryptocurrencies, has gotten the lion’s share of attention here as it has skyrocketed in value—appreciating nearly 200% just since October to more than $40,000 per bitcoin before settling at current prices around $30,000. Bitcoin offers some attractive attributes, such as limited supply and global exchangeability, and is evolving quickly. For now, though, we do not see it as a viable storehold of wealth for large institutional investors, thanks mainly to a high degree of volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and operational constraints. Rather, we see it as more


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What Is Top Shot?

 

What Is Top Shot?

Courtesy of 

What I’m about to write is going to sound incredibly stupid. Some of it also might not be factually accurate, as I’m still very much a NoobWhale.  If you want to learn more, I suggest you start herehere, or here. Also, this is definitely 100% not investment advice. Terms and conditions, etc.

I’m participating in the early days of a mania for the first time in my life. I tend to be a knee-jerk skeptic, so I feel like a fish out of water right now. I never bought Bitcoin in its infancy, and I don’t do meme stocks. It’s just not in my personality. Maybe it’s because my parents got divorced when I was young, and I JUST DON’T WANT TO GET HURT AGAIN, OKAY!

All jokes aside, this thing got its tentacles in me, and it’s not letting go.

I’m pretty sure this is a bubble. I’m also pretty sure this is still early days. What’s happening now feels very strange. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s just like an inside joke.

This thing I’m referring to is something called non-fungible tokens, which you’ve definitely seen pop up over the last week if you spend any time on the internet. And if you’re like most people, you’re probably wondering what the hell is this?!?

Non-fungible tokens are digital assets that can provide ownership of a piece of art, digital real estate (not kidding), and sports cards, which I’ve been dabbling in lately.

NFTs are indivisible, unlike shares of stock or other cryptocurrencies. You own all of it, or you own none of it. They’re also verifiable, meaning you can see the history of where it started, who has owned it, and how much subsequent owners have paid for it.

I don’t remember where I first heard about NBA Top Shot, but I definitely thought it was a goof. My immediate reaction and everybody’s reaction when they first hear about it goes something like this: “Wait, I don’t get it. These are…GIFs…on the blockchain? Why can’t I just watch it on YouTube?…
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Bitcoin $1 Trillion, Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card IPO’s for $800,000, $EBAY at all-time highs, Nikkei at 30 Year Highs….Investing Is Easy!

 

Bitcoin $1 Trillion, Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card IPO’s for $800,000, $EBAY at all-time highs, Nikkei at 30 Year Highs….Investing Is Easy!

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I think you will more enjoy this post if you FIRST watch this quick Bitcoin explainer on my new favorite financial show ‘The Lily Show

Here we go…

On 3 January 2009, the bitcoin network came into existence with Satoshi Nakamoto mining the genesis block of bitcoin (block number 0), which had a reward of 50 bitcoins. Embedded in the coinbase of this block was the text: The Times Jan/03/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.

Here we are in 2021 and Bitcoin 1 trillion (8 percent from that round number) is one of the most fascinating investing moments of my investing career. I remember Yoni Assia first telling me to buy Bitcoin at 12 cents in Tel Aviv back in 2010. I told him to just take my money for Etoro and leave me alone.

I was told by someone on Twitter last night that if I had invested just $1,000 at 12 cents and held, my Bitcoin stake would be worth $416,666,666.

PLEASE.DO.NOT.TELL.ELLEN.

There is no way I would have held or NOT lost those original Bitcoins so investing in Etoro was a pretty good next best decision to make that day as Yoni has held Bitcoin and multiplied my investment at a much better rate than I would or could have.

Bitcoin $1 Trillion comes with a lot of other records in the markets that make sense considering the macro events that brought us Bitcoin $1 trillion.

Japan’s Nikkei is exitiing a 30 year bear market:

$EBAY – the godfather of ‘Beanie Babies’ and selling stuff from your closets and garage is at all-time highs:

A Wayne Gretzky rookie card IPO’d on Rally Rd for $800,000 (I am sure I had 5 of those at one point as a kid in Toronto but lost them in ‘shootsies’):

I wish I was younger to more enjoy this moment in investing history. The yoots have all these new financial toys.

Back in 2010 I wrote a


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The Big Long

 

The Big Long

Courtesy of 

I’m on vacation so I got to watch three or four hours of CNBC over the last two days from my hotel room. I don’t get to watch any CNBC during the week when I’m in New York working. Andrew, Joe and Becky are great at what they do, and I enjoyed a lot of the interviews I caught on Squawk.

But that’s not what I want to talk about.

I want to talk about something of greater import.

It’s a realization I was able to come to only as a result of stepping away and watching from a distance as the commentator class remarked upon the latest dozen or so SPACs to raise money or consummate a deal with an unprofitable, experimental business.

Or the moment by moment push of Bitcoin through the latest Big Round Number (it’s pulsing its way through $51,000 per coin as I type this). Add in all the alt-coins (which put the lie to the investment premise of scarcity, but that’s a different story for a different day) as well as the Non Fungible Tokens (NFTs), which is like a delusion of a delusion – we’re now inventing new “assets” solely for the purpose of digitally securitizing them and reselling them to an even more credulous buyer who will in turn find someone even thirstier to come in behind him.

Or the latest electric vehicle startup to be worth billions of dollars before selling even a few thousand cars or trucks on the open market.

Or the IPO explosion, where just for showing up the investor class awards your deal with an almost automatic, quasi-obligatory 50 percent premium above the offering price. “Thanks for getting out of bed this morning, here’s three billion dollars.” 

Or the latest fintech contender entering the arena with yet another take on the free services in exchange for rapid user growth conceit. When your business model is selling stock, user growth is much more critical than profitability, and, in fact, profitability may even be a hindrance to attaining the sky-high valuations your stock buyers are hoping for. If you earn a profit, there’s


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Bitcoin Holds Record Highs As JPMorgan Co-President Admits “We’ll Have To Be Involved”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Well this is a little awkward…

Four years since Jamie Dimon famously proclaimed that "bitcoin is a fraud", "will eventually blow up", and that "any trader trading bitcoin would be fired for being stupid", JPMorgan's co-President Daniel Pinto has reportedly admitted that bitcoin and its crypto brethren are a real thing:

"If over time an asset class develops that is going to be used by different asset managers and investors, we will have to be involved,”

CNBC's Hugh Son reports that last month, during a town hall meeting held for thousands of JPMorgan Chase traders and sales personnel around the world, global markets head Troy Rohrbaugh acknowledged a question that is increasingly being asked by the bank’s own employees: When will they get involved in bitcoin?

In a response that reportedly took up a chunk of the hour-long call, Pinto signaled he was open-minded about bitcoin: “The demand isn’t there yet, but I’m sure it will be at some point.”

Source: Bloomberg

This all comes after JPMorgan has tried (and failed) four times in the last few weeks to slam bitcoin (see here for failed attempt #1attempt #2, attempt #3, and attempt #4)

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan is not the only big bank being forced to face up to the new reality of decentralized finance and cryptocurrencies, as CNBC reports that last week, Goldman Sachs hosted a private forum with Mike Novogratz, the CEO-founder of crypto firm Galaxy Digital, for employees and clients. Novogratz expounded on his thesis for bitcoin, ethereum and other digital assets as well as their macroeconomic backdrop during the 90-minute virtual event.

As corporations, payment systems, and disruptors (Tesla, MicroStrategy, MasterCard, PayPal, & BNY Mellon this week alone) increasingly adopt cryptos, if one of the six biggest U.S. banks decides to embrace bitcoin, it would be a major stamp of legitimacy for the nascent asset class.

As Hugh Son concludes, there is irony here: In a few short years, bitcoin went from an idealistic technology meant to cut out banks and other intermediaries to a store of value used mostly


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Ethereum Surges To New Record High As DeFi Boom Re-Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Coins that power decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are soaring recently as bitcoin treads water.

While bitcoin grabbed all the headlines early on in the year, it is the rest of the crypto space that is stealing its thunder most recently as Ethereum, the backbone of the smart contracts that define much of the DeFi space, has drastically outperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest for ETH relative to BTC since

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, as Bitcoin drifts, Ethereum is up over 17% since Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Back above the recent highs….

Source: Bloomberg

Making new all-time highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The incredible surge in the price of AAVE (driven as surge in the growth of flash loans) most recently is a good example of what is driving this push into DeFi tokens. As CoinTelegraph notes,

Flash loans allow cryptocurrency holders to collatoralize their portfolio to fund other purchases or new crypto purchases.

The loans also help investors utilize the value in their tokens without the need to sell see them and create a taxable event.

Since launching flash loans less than 12 months ago, more than $1.7 billion have been issued and it’s expected that this figure will increse as the crypto bull market progresses.

Simply put, the crypto market is becoming its own bank.





Five Reasons The SEC Should Approve Bitcoin ETFs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Eric Balchunas, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

If President Joe Biden’s nomination of Gary Gensler to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission is confirmed, Gensler should act swiftly to get the agency’s staff moving toward approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, showing that the U.S. not only understands cryptocurrencies but is looking to protect investors and put the country on a level playing field with the rest of the world. This move is long past due.

The SEC is seen as dragging its feet unnecessarily on the issue of approving ETFs that focus on cryptocurrencies. An informal Twitter poll I recently conducted found that almost 80% of the 2,192 people who responded believe the SEC should approve a bitcoin ETF. About 50% would invest in one. I’ve been doing these polls for years and this is the highest by far in favor of approval.

My poll lines up nicely with a Bitwise survey of financial advisors. In that one, 63% of respondents said an ETF was the preferred vehicle to invest in Bitcoin, compared with 16% for directly owning the digital coin and 10% for a mutual fund. People say this not as crypto advocates but as fans and users of the very durable and efficient ETF structure. They would feel the same way if the SEC denied a gold ETF or a China A-share ETF, both of which are great examples of ETFs breaking new ground and successfully democratizing a unique asset class.

Here are five reasons the SEC should approve an ETF:

1. The Premium in Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust is Dangerous:

Those seeking a U.S.-based investment vehicle for the digital currency are generally left with a bunch of OTC-traded trusts similar to closed-end funds but without the crucial share creation or redemption process offered by an ETF – a feature that allows for arbitrage.

The most popular is the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, which has grown from $2 billion to more than $20 billion in assets over the last year. If Grayscale was an ETF, it would rank about 50th in size, putting it in the top 2% of all ETFs. Those that bought shares of the trust over


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Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to just below US$30,000 by the end of the year.

Since then it has climbed to all-time highs above US$38,000, making headlines day after day and driving up the prices of other cryptocurrencies at the same time. So what has driven this huge price appreciation and is it different to the bubble of 2017?

Bitcoin/US$ price 2016-21

Bitcoin price graph

Trading View

One reason for the massive price rise is that there has been a big influx of investors from large-scale institutions such as pension schemes, university endowment funds and investment trusts. This was not the case during the last bull market in 2017, in which the bitcoin price rose about 20-fold to almost US$20,000, only to slide back to the low US$3,000s a year later.

In 2017, the cryptocurrency ecosystem was dominated by individual retail investors, many of whom were attracted to bitcoin’s scarcity and the fact that it stood outside the global financial system. The 2017 bull market had all the signs of a classic financial bubble and investors who were buying in “fear of missing out” (FOMO).

The move mainstream

This time, big names such as billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones and insurance giant MassMutual have invested heavily, while even former naysayers like JP Morgan now say that bitcoin could have a bright future. This all helps to increase trust in the cryptocurrency and indicates that it is becoming more mainstream.

Bitcoin has also been backed by a few large consumer-facing payment names. PayPal now allows customers to buy, hold and sell bitcoin directly from their PayPal…
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Bitcoin Surges Above $40k As Crypto Assets Top $1 Trillion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Update (1230ET): Having broken above $38k and $39k in the last hour, Bitcoin prices have continued their YTD rampagae and just topped $40,000 for the first time ever.

Source: Bloomberg

Less than 3 days ago, Bitcoin was trading with a $27k handle!!!

Ethereum is also surging and nearing $1300…

Source: Bloomberg

ETH is still 2021's biggest gainer but in what can only be described as an epic short-squeeze, Ripple (amid SEC issues) is up almost 60%…

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

Amid the chaotic scenes in DC yesterday, and confirmation that both Democrats won their Georgia Senate seats, cryptocurrency prices have accelerated higher once again, crossing the stunning level of $1 trillion in total market capitalization for the first time in history…

Source: CoinMarketCap

“The more that people perceive that their assets, particularly their liquid assets such as fiat currencies are eroding in value, the more they will look for alternatives,” said Geoffrey Morphy, president of Canadian crypto mining company Bitfarms Ltd.

Bitcoin has crossed another milestone, topping $38,000 for the first time…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also surged higher, breaking back above $1200 for the first time since Jan 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

As ETH nears its own record high from early 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Among the many reasons for cryptos recent rise, Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz told CNBC this morning that the latest round of stimulus checks – and promises of even more to come under a Biden administration and now Democrat rule – could be further fuel for the rise in Bitcoin…

"A lot of that [stimulus] will find it's way into the markets. Certainly, when it comes into young people's hands, they're going right to their Robinhood accounts. One of the most unique things


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Phil's Favorites

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension - what this means for you

 

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension – what this means for you

Vials of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to prevent COVID-19. The use of this particular vaccine has been halted temporarily. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration on April 13, 2021 halted use of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine that has been given to 6.8 million people in the U.S. The pause is...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension - what this means for you

 

Johnson & Johnson vaccine suspension – what this means for you

Vials of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to prevent COVID-19. The use of this particular vaccine has been halted temporarily. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration on April 13, 2021 halted use of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine that has been given to 6.8 million people in the U.S. The pause is...



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ValueWalk

UK's First-Time Buyers See House Prices Climb

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

First-time buyers paying as much as £73k more to get on the ladder since the market reopened

Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Climbing Cost Of Houses For First Time Buyers

Research by the new build snagging and defect management experts, ...



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Zero Hedge

Trading Bonds In Venezuela? Bring A Gunman And Cash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Venezuelan bond market - described by Bloomberg as one of the 'tiniest and almost certainly the most primitive' in the world - is also one of the most dangerous.

Based in Caracas where Nicolas Maduro's socialist government is 'ever so slowly freeing up the battered economy' for capitalistic endeavors, the US dollar has become the defacto currency. Yet, there's no electronic method to electronically transfer USD from one bank to another - which mean...



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Digital Currencies

Coinbase Sets Reference Price At $250, Well Below Last Private Market Trade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated direct listing of massive crypto-exchange Coinbase, Nasdaq has just announced the company's so-called Reference Price at $250.

On April 14, 2021, the Class A common stock of Coinbase Global, Inc. is expected to list on Nasdaq through a Direct Listing using the ticker “COIN”.

Because this security has not previously traded on any listing market and has no prior day's closing price, Regulation SHO Rule 201 will not apply to the security until its second day of trading on Nasdaq.

As a Direct Listing, COIN will be in a regulatory halt until ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Semiconductor Red Hot Performance Tests 20-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Will the “Red Hot” semiconductor index cool off or get even hotter due to the shortage of chips?

This chart looks at the Semiconductor Index on a monthly basis over the past quarter-century. No doubt the trend is up as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs since 2009.

Fibonacci extension levels were applied to the 1996 lows and the 2000 highs. Currently, the index is testing the 261% extension level, while at the top of the rising channel as momentum is at the highest level since the 2000 highs.

The rare chip shortage coul...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 31 October 2020, 07:10:55 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Black line could chase the orange line..higher asset prices for 2021. Post US election pop!



Date Found: Saturday, 31 October 2020, 11:32:25 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Just like gold ...


...

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Politics

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

 

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

Russian police officers beat people protesting the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Jan. 23, 2021 in Moscow. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Shelley Inglis, University of Dayton

Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, sick with a cough and ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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