Archive for the ‘Morning Report’ Category

Freaky Friday

Which way will we go???

I was just laying out my DIA puts and calls and my QQQQ calls in member chat and I realize that those positions clearly indicate that l have absolutely no idea what's going on.

As I expected last night. the GDP data gave us a nice Goldilocks set of numbers but the PCE including food and energy, which the Government likes to ignore, was up 4.3% for the quarter, up from 3.5% in Q1.  The "core" PCE is up just 1.4% for all you non-eating, non-energy using citizens so let's all party like we are Amish people on a hunger strike!

I can kid about the Amish because they'll never read an electronic document but, for the rest of us, I still urge caution, caution and more caution as the DIA calls and QQQQ calls we took were UPSIDE PROTECTION, meaning they are there to protect our terrific gains on the put side.  We could make money on both ends of this trade today as we wait for some Federally funded BS to hit the markets from Paulson, Bush (oh no but, yes, he's speaking!), Bernanke et al who'd better say something positive before we start making Asian-style declines.

The Hang Seng missed my down 1,000 target by 222 points and recovered 127 into the close so kudos to them for making it back over 22,500.  The Nikkei dropped 418 points, also with a 100 point gain at the last minute so I'm taking all of Asia with a grain of salt this morningNTT's profits dropped 25% as they experienced the kind of cost inflation that our government doesn't believe in.

Europe is off about a point ahead of our open and has been gathering strength in their afternoon, so we will watch that finish with great interest but it will take a lot for us to jump back in and BUYBUYBUY.  We certainly have the cash on the side ready to do it but we're going to need clear tech leadership, not energy leadership, to even consider jumping back into this very chilly pool:


We actually played OIH to the plus side yesterday.  Happy Trading says they still have room to run and we do not argue with Wang's World, as he's
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Thursday Morning – In progress

“All human wisdom is summed up in two words – wait and hope”

- Alexandre Dumas Père




It is hard to wait for the right moment to deploy our capital.


We investors are, by nature, a hopeful group and we tend to get jumpy when the market looks hot, always worried we are going to miss something.  This is kind of funny because the people who are anxious to buy today are the same people who couldn’t wait to sell on Tuesday.


What changed?  We had this conversation just this weekend when I warned not to get too excited about a "dead cat bounce" yet now we have a weaker bounce and my mailbox is filled with questions from people who want to BUYBUYBUY.  I love buying stocks as much as the next guy but I prefer to buy stocks that ARE going up, rather than stocks that LOOK like they are going up (it’s a fine distinction).


I was excited to buy last week because we oversold because, as I said at the time: "QQQQ made a nice doji yesterday as volume tapered off to half of last week’s peak.  Look for the very rare "abandoned baby" pattern to form in the candle chart of the Qs (it will gap up at the open and finish the day at or above yesterday’s high) to signal a real reversal which could have all those shorts covering for the rest of the week."  I say this now to remind you know I can be bullish when I have a good reason to be!  More importantly, I can also be patient – and that is what is called for here.


The MSM (main stream media) does not want you to be patient – they need you to BUYBUYBUY because US investors control over $4 Trillion dollars in market wealth and if they lose
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Which Way Wednesday?

The BOJ raised rates (doubled them in fact)!

Wow, I love it when the world makes sense…  I was starting to think I was crazy as not one person in CNBC agreed with my call for a rate hike and it was causing me to rethink my World view but, as the BOJ said in their statement: "??????????????????????????????? ??????????????????"

This is exactly what I've been talking about!  More telling was their very positive statement regarding our economy: "Uncertainties over the future course of overseas economies, including that of the United States, are abating, and this is likely to reinforce the prospects of continued increase in corporate profits and business fixed investment."  That first statement, "a virtuous circle of production, income, and spending" speaks volumes for the bank's confidence in their own economy as well.

So, on the bright side, the world economy is chugging along and, although this hike, by necessity, puts the Fed back on the table, it's doing so for all the right reasons.  As I said yesterday (and for months) the only industries hurt by this are the bubble commodity industries, which simply aren't worth what they are being paid and will come down hard when money is no longer free.

Asian stocks were mixed overall as Japanese stocks took their rate hike pretty well in stride.  Tokyo Steel announced price hikes and jumped 8%.  Nissan just said no to Chrysler in what I predict to be the first of many rejections for DCX, who paid $36Bn for the company in 1998.  DCX plans on cutting 13,000 North American jobs this year and it remains to be seen where they book those costs but I'm thinking this 15% rally in a company that will be lucky to get $10Bn back on their investment (after losing Billions operating it) is just a bit overdoneApril $70 puts are $2.35 and we can set a stop at $1.90 as any upward movement here means I'm wrong so we can get out quick.

Speaking of overbought auto companies – how did we forget to short GM at $36.50?  I don't like the June pricing so I'll take my chances with the March $35 puts for .80 and will roll to April, May, June and July if I have to wait that long for…
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Fickle Friday Morning

We have to give the markets a pass today.

It’s option expiration day and any movement you see today needs to be taken with a rather large grain of salt. 


The Fed came out with a bold statement – that low unemployment may not necessarily lead to higher inflation.  This is part of the new global paradigm we’ve been discussing for the past 2 years (see all previous columns!).  As I’ve often said about outsourcing, we don’t just outsource the low-paying jobs, we outsource the pollution, the inadequate housing, the health, welfare, education and retirement burdens that come with employing 50M minimum wage workers who couldn’t be found in this country even if you wanted them.

Speaking of the globe – is it just me or is money getting cheaper? Here’s a 30 year chart of the 30 year note, you tell me why HB’s making a comeback.

Maybe the global markets have gotten so efficient that money can be profitably marketed for just 4% interest.  If we think of money as a product and think of Central Banks, the IMF and, of course computers as devices we use to increase manufacturing and distribution efficiency, it’s not so hard to see that maybe the cost of money has simply declined over the years.  Citibank certainly seems to be able to squeeze out a living in this environment…

China raised the deposit rates for lenders for the 5th time in 8 months, still trying to keep a 10% cap on their growth rate.  Starting 2/25, commercial banks must keep 10% of their deposits on reserve with the People’s Bank of China, compared with 9.5% previously.  "There is relatively large pressure to expand lending, and a further increase in the reserve requirement ratio was needed in response to changes in the liquidity situation," the central bank said in explaining the move.

Japan’s GDP grew at 4.8% in Q4 and they are complaining that their consumers are asleep at the wheel!  What will happen when they wake up and start shopping?  What if American consumers start saving like the Japanese do?  LOL – well of course that’s not going…
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Thinking About It Thursday

Apple is still trading down pre-market (6am)!


They beat earnings by .36 (48%) but that somehow isn't enough to get people excited.  Cramer made a bearish call on tech in general yesterday, especially cell phones, handheld products, storage stocks, semiconductors and software (I guess that leaves just cappuccino machines and treadmills).

He did give his blessing to our holdings of AAPL, HPQ, GOOG and MSFT as well as CSCO, which we just dumped and LVLT, which I disagree with until they pull back to the $5s.

I think it may be just a little premature to write off tech just yet, although I warned yesterday morning that the ides of March are nigh, I still think we are too near escape velocity to cancel our moon shot after just one orbital pass.

Not to pick on Cramer but seriously, the man just spent Tuesday morning telling people this is the year of the Nasdaq and then a day later, he reads my headline and changes his opinion 180 degrees – Jim, don't take me so literally!  I'm cautious but I haven't thrown in the towel just yet…

Both the PPI and the Fed Beige book indicated the economy is still moving along nicely and I strongly believe the entire tech cycle is being dragged down by the delayed Vista launch.  While a late winter will dampen enthusiasm, I think an early spring will get CEOs to whip out their checkbooks and pump up IT spending sooner than expected as you tend to want to get your year into focus before you start thinking about summer vacations.

As with yesterday, the Asian markets shrugged off our lackluster performance and turned in some very nice numbers with the Nikkei climbing another 109 points back near the ATH at 17,370 while the Hang Seng added another 212 points to finish at 20,277.

I jumped the gun yesterday as I should have said, there will be no way the BOJ raises rates tomorrow when I said "The BOJ backed off raising their rates for this session."  Sometimes I'm so sure something is going to happen I think it's already news!  As I said to someone yesterday, the problem with being a fundamentalist is sometimes it takes the markets some time to catch up with you…

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Which Way Wednesday?

Et tu, Intel!  Then fall, Nasdaq.


It's looking pretty dire for the Nasdaq as first SYMC, then RACK, the SOX and now even INTC all take a stab at it.  Will the Nasdaq die a death of 1,000 cuts?  It's really just the top 100 we care about but there's a lot of pressure mounting on Apple, IBM and MOT to give us a brighter vision of the future of tech than we've gotten so far this week.

As I said last week, we need Nasdaq leadership to guide that commodity money off the sidelines and into something new – I'm not sure that the industrials will be up to the job.  Like the Roman senate, the analysts are all too willing to take down the Nasdaq just as it's breaking out but they have no clear plan for a successor!  Without a hot sector – the markets, like Rome, will crumble.

Asian markets weathered Intels storm fairly well yesterday, also working hard to shake off falling commodity sectors.  The BOJ backed off raising their rates for this session, a bit of a surprise that rallied the real-estate sector over there (you'd be amazed at what kind of house you can get with a 1.5% mortgage!).  We had a Bugs Bunny rush back into steel, real-estate and construction with banks giving up some ground as there is not much margin to be made on 0% interest.

Europe is trading flat ahead of our open and their timing couldn't have been worse for Intel as the EU is recommending formal charges against INTC for not playing nice with AMD.  As we know from Microsoft's monopoly case, the EU's bark is worse than it's bite but never underestimate investors' fear of a barking dog.

Back home we got some good news from JPM, who are still cranking out profits at a record pace with a 50% increase in investment banking revenues.  That perked up the DOW pre-marked, which includes JPM as a component.  Still, I'm going to be watching the downside today as anything up is obviously good:

  • Dow 12,550 needs to hold, with luck we can make progress towards 12,600 but just staying halfway there would be great!

    • Transports need

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Thursday Morning

Last Thursday was not good.

Yesterday was not good either. It wasn't bad – it just wasn't good. Something has to perk up tech, especially the semis or it may be time to lighten up again into the holidays. Today may be the critical day as the VIX crashes and we set a direction ahead of the inevitable rebound after options expiration.

That's the other big factor, options expire tomorrow and you can see a lot of stocks flat-lining into expiration and we can't trust any movement we see this week so be very careful out there!

[Timothy Johnson]

As of 7am, oil was up a full dollar in European trading. Sen. Tim Johnson (D – SD) is in critical conditionand should he be forced to step down the Republican Governor, Mike Rounds, gets to appoint his successor and swing the Senate back to the Republicans!

OPEC did nothing but pledged to cut another 500Kbd in February, so let's keep an eye on the March and April contracts to see how real the traders think this is. I will likely take this one last opportunity to double down Jan oil puts – if it ever stops going up!

Our prayers go out to Senator Johnson, who is just 59 but seems to have had a stroke – he is listed in critical condition after emergency surgery.

Asian markets were up across the board with India recovering 305 more points and saving my market of the year prediction (at least this week). The Hang Seng erased yesterday's drop entirely as Chinese leaders seemed intent on making a public showingof telling Paulson and Bernanke who was really the boss while privately releasing "work plans for various government agencies to tackle tensions between the two countries."

"We have had the genuine feeling that some American friends are not only having limited knowledge of, but harbouring much misunderstanding about the reality in China," VP Wu told Paulson and other senior Washington policy-makers at the start of their two-day meeting in Beijing. "This is not conducive to the sound development of our bilateral relations."

Europe was flat this morning, BP has been advised there will be
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Monday Morning

Well the dollar is starting to matter.

We talked about this back in Augustand it has always cast a shadow on our trading as I’ve never been able to get all gung-ho while ignoring this pressing issue.

While we were all out having turkey, the rest of the world took a long, hard look at our balance sheets and downgraded us. 

As our debt is looking riskier to foreigners, the rumors that the Fed will LOWER rates to boost a slowing economy make no sense at all to buyers of international paper (or to anyone who actually understands economics).

So let’s be very, very careful out there as things may LOOK good over here but to other countries we look a lot more like this:


And that is not good in any language! 

I don’t want to make things sound dire but, since Wednesday, the dollar is down 2.3%.  That means that a European or Asian investor who has a virtual portfolio of US stocks lost 2.3% of his value across the board in just 3 days.  That’s the equivelant of a 250-point Dow drop!

We are going to be needing some pretty exceptional retail numbers to convince foreign investors that our economy still has legs…

Let’s not forget that we asked for this when we told China to strengthen the Yuan.  Currencies don’t strengthen in a vacuum and for the Yuan to rise, something had to fall and it’s no surprise to my readers that the dollar would end up suffering.

All of this is right in line with my Inflation Nation policy but it’s a fine line between a steady devaluation and a total meltdown so let’s watch our gauges!  Asian markets were up, except for the Hang Seng as investors there become concerned that the government will have to take action to curb the dollar’s fall.  Japan has already made noises about keeping a rate raise off the table to keep speculators out of the Yen and to maintain the ”carry trade” where investors borrow Yen to buy Dollars, taking advantage of the interest spreads.

Europe is having a 1% sell-off and companies that get paid in dollars are being hit hard, a strong indicator that European investors don’t see any great fixes ahead for our currency.

You would think Europe would be in a good mood as crude prices have slipped 2.5% in the past 3 days, something we are blissfully unaware of as the contracts are priced in dollars that are falling just
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Friday Morning

Well, we’re up 200 points for the week so far.

Keep that in perspective if we drop 50 points and Don’t Panic – it will take a drop of more than 100 points to erase the week’s very bullish tone.

Oil is printing (at 5:30) $55.79 in European trading but Brent crude is still higher ($58.23) and I imagine there’s a difference in the contract.  The Brent contract fell $3.07 yesterday as it was much higher than ours ($61.30). 

It was 60 degrees in NJ last night and the 15 day forecast says no freezing temperatures until December 1st but the warm weather IS breaking and we know how shocked energy traders are when it gets cold in the winter!

Of course today is options expiration day and only a fool tries to guess the markets today so here goes:

There’s only 2 levels to watch today, amazing (almost any gain) and uh-oh, the point at which some panic will occur:

  • Dow 12,300 plus is great but below 12,200 will create doubt that we can’t afford as we try to achieve escape velocity.
  • S&P cannot be expected to break 1,400 on no news and doing so would be a major bull signal but we’d really hate to lose 1,390 and even 1,395 will be a concern.
  • NYSE is losing its leadership and will be weighed down on commodity weakness as well.  If 8,850 holds it will be a very good sign.
  • Nasdaq needs to take the lead and break 2,450 and 2,425 will be a problem already.
  • Russell must hold 790, and that’s a lot to ask as it just got there and needs a rest but the floor is too weak to test.

The SOX are free to retest 480 without looking weak while the transports have earned themselves a free pass all the way to 2,675 (down 45) after gaining 150 points in 5 sessions. 

I hate to repeat myself but I will just reprint what I wrote on Wednesday which was a reprint of what I wrote the week before as it was exactly correct:

“You have to ignore the dollar amount on this chart as it’s based on a continuous contract price but the moving average is fulfilling my prediction of last week:   ”Oil could go either way today but showed real weakness at the $60 level of late as the rapidly falling 50 dma races
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Thursday Morning

The CPI is out today.

I expect it to be not as tame as the PPI because consumers don’t have departments whose sole job is to make sure they don’t overpay for things, but we should get some trickle down improvement, at least as a slowing of inflation.  Anything else will be a big disappointment although I don’t see how anyone can complain about sub 3% inflation.

Asia was fairly flat, taking a well-deserved rest today and the BOJ held rates steady at .25% which should boost the buck a bit.  It’s very tricky for Japan, who have to double the rates in order to raise them a quarter point…

Europe has no idea what to do ahead of our CPI report so we will ignore them but we do want to see if the FTSE can break 6,250.

I should really wait 90 minutes as it will all change but let’s see if I get this right:

The Dow needs to break 12,300 TODAY in order to really bring in some new money.  Falling all the way to 12,100 would still be fine if we hold it but will sideline new money for quite a while.

The S&P tested 1,400 yesterday and it will be amazing if they break it and 1.390 is a very soft floor.  The NYSE is at 8,901 and holding that level will be huge – let’s look for them for early inidcations of trouble.  The Nasdaq touched 2,450 yesterday and now it has to buy it or get out.

The SOX broke 480, which was a huge barrier last fall and led to the mega semi rally in January.  We are still 75 points (15%) below those highs.  Transports are looking to take out 2,700, on their way to a retest of 2,800 – which may mark a top for now.

[Crude Oil]

Oil is going to try to hold $59 again as traders are stunned by the possibility of cold weather may hit the US in the winter.  There’s a gas inventory report today that is sure to make XOM move up whether it’s a build or a draw or a steep decline.

Ticker Sense has a nice gas chartand postulates that, even if we have the biggest drawdown in gas ever this winter, we will still hit the spring with above average inventories.

I wish I could tell you that makes for…
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Phil's Favorites

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19


Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...

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Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19


Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...

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Zero Hedge

"They've Left Me High And Dry": Here Is The Real Reason Companies Have Drawn Down A Record $293 Billion In Revolvers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One week ago, we reported that starting exactly one month ago on March 5, an unprecedented wave of corporate revolver draws was unleashed, resulting in what JPMorgan calculated was a record $208BN in revolving credit facilities being fully drawn (for the full list of companies see ...

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AZO and ORLY: Which one is a better buy?

By Marek Mscichowski. Originally published at ValueWalk.

AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) and O’Reilly Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:ORLY): Both auto parts retailers are uncorrelated to S&P 500, but which one is a better buy?

By Price Earnings Ratio Tracker Team

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Over recent months I have created valuation models for the two main competitors in the auto parts retail business – AutoZone, the leader on the coasts with a $26 billion market ca...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Repeating 2000 & 2007 Patterns Almost Exactly?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does History Repeat? Is does rhyme sometimes!!!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 20-years.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2000-2003 bear market. On the week of 3/23/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear market resumed.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2007-2009 bear market. On the week of 3/21/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear ...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
... more from Insider

The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!


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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.

RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation


10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...

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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream


While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...

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Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  


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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires


Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:


The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.