Archive for the ‘Morning Report’ Category

Which Way Wednesday?

Was that it or are we just getting started?

Japan took some profits today but the Hang Seng (who barely pulled back) jumped 200 points, just 70 points shy of another new high.

The CEO of WuMart (Chinese version of Wal-Mart) resigned under investigation for some sort of shenanigans.  The stock has gained 85% since its IPO in 2003 and we were just having a conversation about CMED and why I don’t like Chinese stocks so here’s a good example.  At least when our CEOs get investigated you have 3 or 4 years before they have to resign!

Speaking of China, Wikimedia (my favorite on-line reference) is back on-line in China.  This is a very interesting policy change so I hope it sticks… 

Speaking of free press, Al-Jazeera launches their English news channel today, which will bring them to more homes globally than Fox news!  I’d love to A/B those two networks on the same story! 

Europe is in  a pretty good mood this morning (must be that Al-Jazeera zoo crew!)  with all the exchanges pointing higher.  I’m going to start watching the FTSE (the Euro Dow) to see if they can break out of that 6,250 range to make a new top.

Meawhile, everyone is shorting this top so either everyone is right or we will reach escape velocity on a lot of short covering this week and next.

Let’s keep an eye on INTC, whose 4% gain drove the markets yesterday.  I will be thrilled if we can hold these new tops and we need tech leadership to keep this party going and a commodity pullback may stall things today.

Questions for the day:

  • Does the Dow hold 12,200?
  • Can the S&P maintian 1,390?
  • Is the NYSE serious about 8,850?
  • Will 2,425 be support for the Nasdaq?

The Russell also bears watching at 780 but it is pure greed to expect them to hold a 2% 2-day gainAs long as our majors don’t pull back more than half a pont, we are in fine, fine shape!

Oil is in for a bumpy ride today so good luck to all as I will be at meetings most of the day and will miss the fun.

Crude is expected to build 1.2M barrels and a small draw on distillates is expected.  As Zman properly points out, the pump crew makes a big deal
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Tuesday Morning

Another tricky day!

Asia is way up with the Nikkei jumping 267 points off the 200 dma/psychological 16,000 mark.  Japan’s economy grew at 2%, vs. the 1.5% expected as the US consumers made up for lackluster consumer spending at home.  This could be a best of both worlds for us as their economy is picking up and they still have no reason to raise rates.

Unfortunately, this gives oil an excuse to go up a bit as they are the second biggest economy in the world (1/3 the US) although they do conserve better than we do!

China, on the other hand, has a problem.  Their money supply is up 17% for the year, mostly because we keep giving it to them!  This is very inflationary and that’s not good when you have 900M farmers in your country… 

As we are making nice with Vietnam now, we are removing them from the list of countries that violate religious freedom just day’s ahead of Bush’s visit.  Isn’t that special?

Europe opened well but is now (6am) thinking better of it, possibly as oil spiked up on the Japan GDP.  I think this is a wrong take because neither the US or Japan base as much of their economic growth on manufacturing as they used to but we know energy traders will take any excuse to raise prices!

At home we have a slight miss from HD but a 5% beat from WMT – who hit the top of their range at .63 on slightly lower revenues, which should help the Dow and encourage the retail sector (though I want to see TGT before I get excited).  HD saw a big drop in big ticket purchases and blames the housing slowdown which may spook the markets.

There was a mass kidnapping in Iraq of 150 people early this morning, I wonder if it will even make the news here?

Today’s watch numbers are:

  • Dow under 12,100 = bad, anything over is still good
  • S&P breaking 1,390 will be a new high, 1,380 needs to hold
  • NYSE needs to hold 8,800 with a new high at 8,873
  • Nasdaq just broke 2,400 so just holding it will be great!
  • RUT is above 770 (last week’s target) and I want to get greedy and look for a new high at 785 this week.

The SOX is nervously waiting the outcome of the Vista release. …
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Thursday Morning

Wow, Thursday already, this week is flying!

Looks like the Dems won the Senate too and I think the markets are going to like it!

The Hang Seng liked it with a 141 point gain but the Nikkei can’t get it back in gear as rising oil ground Japan’s industrials to a halt.

Europe is flat ahead of our open but are holding their own record highs.

Will we get serious breakouts on our own indices this morning?  If oil stays below $60 (but not so low as to crash the energy sector) I think we have a shot at 12,200!

Mr. Jones looks ready to party and, with 70% of the companies reporting so far giving us a beat, why not?  This week may be a little early for a breakout but if we make it through the weekend without anything blowing up, we could be in very good shape.

Let’s keep an eye on some good and bad levels:

  • Dow 12,200 very good, 12,100 not so much.
  • S&P 1,390 record high, 1,380+ still very strong
  • NYSE 8,900 record high, 8,800 holding record highs
  • Nasdaq 2,400 = lift off, 2,350 needs to hold
  • Russel 770 is breakout, 760 weakness

The SOX are likely to give us the greatest concern, they are likely to have trouble at the 200 dma at 470 but anything above there will lift the Nasdaq over 2,400 – hopefully Microsoft’s confirmation of Vista release will help today. 

The Yuan is on the move, now at it’s year high as China tries to deflect criticism of this month’s record-breaking trade surplus.  The Bank of England adds pressure to the dollar with another rate hike, bringing them to 5%.

That is bad for oil prices but not bad for US equity prices as they look cheap to foreign investors.  The dollar is down 3% since the 16th which adds $1.80 to the price of oil and $18 to the price of gold.

Gold is, not too coincidentally, up $18 since that date while oil has remained flat at $58.95.  Subtract that $1.80 dollar boost and we have oil at $57.15 – my 9/25 bottom target.  This is my bad for not keeping on top of this as any bounce around here – even back to the topline resistance of $61.69 (now $59.89) is to be expected.

Very unfortunately, since we have to live with
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Wednesday Mourning

No matter who you were rooting for I think we all lost in what had to be the nastiest campaign ever waged (until next year).

The Democrats turned 31 house seats and should end up with a 234 to 201 edge, more than a full reversal of what was a 232 to 203 Republican advantage.

You can tell Bill Clinton knew he had the House in the bag on Monday night and, with Hillary’s 67% victory, nothing can be scarier for the Republicans than a re-energized Clinton family.

As I predicted yesterday, Virginia and Montana remain too close to call with the Senate equally divided at 49 seats each but Virginia looks like it will go to Democrat Webb despite Allan’s best efforts to dissuade Webb’s voters.

Allen’s staff certainly did everything they could too!

Even if the Republicans hold the Senate, they will have lost 4 seats and a 55 to 45 majority will slip to 51 to 49 at best.  Aside from a close race in Missouri, the 3 other seats the Democrats gained so far were routs, Rick Santorum was thrown out of a job he held for 12 years with just 41% 0f the vote.

Clearly what saved the Republicans was the fact that 2/3 of the Senators were not up for re-election!  Strategists must already realize that 2 more years of same old, same old will likely lead to full Democratic control in ’08.\

In Connecticut, where Joe Lieberman squared off against another Democrat, even party divisions didn’t help the Republicans as Schlesinger got just 10% of the total vote.

There is an interesting poll in the WSJ where they asked “Did the Democrats win or did the Republicans lose?“  78% of the voters felt their party had thrown the election out the window!

Most polls say it was all about the war and it will be interesting to see if we stay the course for 2 more years.

6 states passed minimum wage increases but it looks like Prop 87 lost in California.  A stem cell research bill passed in Missouri.

Most worrisome for the Republicans was the loss of 8 governors seats (as it shows the will of the whole state).  Of the 22 governorships they held, 6 were not up for election!  Arnold was given a sequel by a huge majority but is certainly not going to be invited to many…
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Congressional Turnover Tuesday

What else matters today?

Who runs the country for the next 2 years?

Word on the world streets is that it will be better for the dollar if the Dems take control as the Republicans have proved unable to control spending.

The Bush administration has followed a remarkably irresponsible course by requesting many spending increases but rarely asking for cuts to programs or agencies.  As for Congress, few members talk about eliminating unneeded government programs, much less entire departments.”

Here’s a great election status chartfrom the NYTimes, I hope you don’t need a subscription…

Control of the senate may come down to the vicious race between incumbent Republican George Allen and Democrat James Webb.

While the Democrats may gain control of the house, changing Senators is a much bigger deal and although 3,000 Americans have died in Iraq to date, it is nothing like the 67,000 that died in Vietnamthat caused the whole country to rise up against incumbents back in the 70s.

The other toss-up Senate races are Montanna, where polls show Dem challenger Tester and 3 term incumbent Burns, and Missouri, the Michael J. Fox ad state.

The Dems need all three of these races and no surprises in the 8 states they lead: MD, Minn, Mich, NJ, Ohio, PA, RI and Wash.

Even if all these races go the Democrats way, that’s just 50 sears.  Connecticut will likely go to Lieberman, who has broken away from the Democratic party but hasn’t quite joined the Republicans yet.

Tim Ryan looks safe in Ohio despite a nasty smear campaign against this very outspoken young congressman.  The Republicans really hate this guy because he comes prepared to debate!

==================================

Ah well, it will all be over tonight (other than 20 or 30 legal actions initiated by losers).

Hong Kong took a rest today but Asia was up on the whole.  Toyota reported a 34% increase in net and is on track to make $19B this year, despite the weak dollar.    $19 Billon just happens to be GM’s entire market cap!  Toyota sold 717K cars in the US last quarter vs. 604K last year.

Despite increased raw-material costs and business expansion expenses, we aim to achieve higher levels of revenue and profits through further increase of vehicle sales and cost reductions,” Toyota’s spokesman Mitsuo Kinoshita said in a statement. 

Speaking of Vietnam, Intel is invading Ho Chi Minh Citywith a…
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Monday Morning

Tempting though it may be, I’m not playing today.

Let’s see how it all plays out but there is no way to predict what will happen now through Wednesday as not only do we not know who will win what, but we don’t know who wants who to win what…

And even if they win, we won’t know who won until the lawyers get done arguing about hanging chads or fixed voting machines or whatever the fad is this year…

So I maintain my 75% cash position (new spreadsheet will be up tonight as I was too far behind to finish it this weekend)  with a heavy dose of December oil puts.

Hong Kong is still on a tear, with another 186 point gain (4th straight record high) while the Nikkei traded flat.  The rest of Asia was pretty good but Pakistan is still in freefall.   

Europe is in a pretty good mood this morning and we’ll see if that lasts past the US open.  This is a little surprising as 10% of France’s poplulation lost power on Saturday as well as 5 other countries.

The London Stock Exchange is in talks with the Tokyo Stock Exchange, further disenfranchising our local boys as America slips further down the ladder as an international monetary power.

Saddam isn’t even making the headlines the GOP had hoped as the verdict was no surprise and the timing is just too suspicious for people to take it seriously.

MER is being investigated along with several other major private equity firms as to whether there is any collusion in buyouts (gee, ya think?).

We should get a strong open so let’s see what holds today:

  • Dow 12,000 obviously
  • S&P would be nice if it stays over 1,370 but, if it can’t break it, remain concerned
  • NYSE will be a big trouble sign below 8,700 but a very good sign if they get back over 8.800
  • The Nasdaq needs to firm up 2,325 as a floor, the chance of it breaking out of 2,375 before Wednesday is minimal

The SOX need to break and hold 455 or the Nasdaq should be avoided and Samsung just gave guidance that left a bit to be desired.  The transports hopefully have downside resistance at 2,500 but face very strong overhead resistance at 2,570.

Of course the transports are going to respond to oil which should be very disappointed that Nigerian Rebels failed to blow something up over the…
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TGIF!

Hopefully we can end the week on a high note! 

We ended last week on a sour note, with our first big pullback in over a month while this week marked the biggest pullback since, as I mentioned Wednesday, the Dow broke 11,000 back in early August.  

Asia was positive across the board other than Pakistan, who can’t get it together.  Australia, Hong Kong and India set new records on word that China’s GDP should grow another 10.5% next year.

China is bringing North Korea back to the table with the US for negotiations (yay) but is refusing to sanction Iran (boo) – both moves put downward pressure on oil prices (yay)!

Europe, as usual, has no idea what to do ahead of the US open.  The ECB left rates alone but made a hawkish statement that should keep the dollar in check.

6 am: We’ll see what kind of mood Mrs. Jones is in once she sees the jobs report.  There are 125K jobs expected with 4.9% unemployment and, at this point, I think we want to see something a little stronger, rather than weaker.

8:30 am: Well, we got a little of both as the jobs were lighter (92K) but there were huge upward revisions to previous months.  September was revised up to 148K from 51K – why do we even look at this statistic if it can be so innaccurate?

The numbers are truly spectacular considering how many consruction jobs were lost!

We held our market levels yesterday (barely) but the SOX and the transports both fell below so let’s just say any index in the red is a bad sign while we need to see the SOX retake 453 and the TRANQ retake 2,567 or it is time for cash once again.

Defying all logic, oil is being pumped up in Europe after trading flat in Asia overnight.  We are still watching the $58.56 upside level and, if it sustains a break over that, I don’t think I want to hold November puts into the weekend.

Oil is down 10% for the month of October, following a 10% drop in September which followed a 10% drop in August – I’m not even going to bother discussing how ridiculous it is for energy companies to be near their highs!

It’s not just oil – despite a falling dollar, commodities are simply crashing (actually the dollar is sort of a commodity…
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Thursday Morning

Limbo high and limbo low! Today looks like a limbo low day with Q3 productivity unchanged and costs up a whopping 3.8%. WMT, TGT and COST came out with disappointing sales numbers today [cue danger music].

We need something to get Mrs. Jones off the ropes and I’m not sure if another round of merger mania will qualify. It is possible that the consumers are feeling so good that they are blowing off the discount sector but that is probably just wishful thinking.

I would have thought MasterCard’s report on charge-o-mania would have qualified as the company “didn’t see any evidence” of slowing U.S. consumer spending. This echoes AXP’s 20% growth in consumer charges last week (I guess they are waiting to hear from Discover).

Hong Kong isn’t playing our game… As I pointed out on Tuesday morning, the Chinese market had a PMA as it came back from a Monday holiday and ignored the pullback. This morning the Hang Seng made a new record high with a 1.4%, 261 point gain in a generally strong Asian market.

Only Pakistan is under performing this week, retracing 1/3 of its gains from the recent run. They are not alarmed so I won’t be either.

In Japan, signs that GS may be losing their mojo are appearing as the IPO of Sach’s own Accordia Golf unit flopped in their debut, coming in 3.6% below the offering price.

Europe is waiting for the US markets to open before committing but they look ready to sell at the drop of a hat. In a preview of corporate America’s worst democratic nightmares – EU officials raided Samsung’s German offices as part of an investigation into memory chip price-fixing. Our pals at Sony got a US subpoena along with CY, MU and Mitsubishi.

UN (the European PG) had great sales showing strong consumer trends in Europe and America (I know we eat those Country Crock mashed potatoes all the time!).

So we have the CVS/CMX merger and TRB going on the block, TWX, EDS, CI, BKC and MA with huge recent earnings reports, sounds good to me…

Let’s just watch our bottoms as I think it is very unlikely we will be breaking out of upside resistance this week. Good signs will be holding the following through tomorrow:

  • Dow – 12,000
  • S&P – 1,360


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Which Way Wednesday?

The dollar is collapsing!

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24usd

Election rhetoric may not fool anyone in this country, but the rest of the world is listening to this nonsense and is losing confidence in our country.

The drop in the dollar against they Yen has gotten so bad that the Nikkei is faltering over it.  The Hang Seng is less affected because they manipulate their currency to be worth whatever they want and thank goodness too because the dollar can’t afford to lose ground to yet another major currency!

This should finally push our SNE puts into the money, so we have that going for us but rising import and commodity prices are not the best recipe for holiday cheer.  The only good thing about this is that we can expect some of the CBs to step in and bail us out.

Lucky for us the Europeans may be feeling generous as the EU’s economic confidence index rose to a 5-year high (in stark contrast to our report yesterday) while their inflation fell to 1.6%.  Unemployment in France (where they were rioting last year) is down to a 5-year low of 8.8% – we have no idea how good we have it!

The robust EU economy is boosting the miners while DCX chipped in with a report of lower-than-expected charges against a massive job cut.

Back home, Mrs. Jones will try to keep the fires burning.  We have construction spending and September home sales at 10 along with the ISM index so don’t trust anything until then.  We would still be thrilled to hold 12K but let’s look upwards as a weak dollar will give a lot of our local boys an initial boost.

The S&P faces a challenge at 1,380 that bears watching and, of course, 1,370 is bad.  The NYSE will lead the markets one way or the other but should have good resistance at both 8,800 and 8,700.  The Nasdaq is also stuck between 2,350 and 2,375 and needs to break up soon if we are going to get this party rolling again.http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24comp

The SOX will give us a big warning signal if they slip below 453 but I’m hoping we can stay over that pesky 460 mark today.  The Dow will not be going anywhere without the transports and they will be going nowhere but down if they break below 2,550.

Oil needs to go down and down and down
continue reading





Which Way Wednesday?

The dollar is collapsing!

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24usd

Election rhetoric may not fool anyone in this country, but the rest of the world is listening to this nonsense and is losing confidence in our country.

The drop in the dollar against they Yen has gotten so bad that the Nikkei is faltering over it.  The Hang Seng is less affected because they manipulate their currency to be worth whatever they want and thank goodness too because the dollar can’t afford to lose ground to yet another major currency!

This should finally push our SNE puts into the money, so we have that going for us but rising import and commodity prices are not the best recipe for holiday cheer.  The only good thing about this is that we can expect some of the CBs to step in and bail us out.

Lucky for us the Europeans may be feeling generous as the EU’s economic confidence index rose to a 5-year high (in stark contrast to our report yesterday) while their inflation fell to 1.6%.  Unemployment in France (where they were rioting last year) is down to a 5-year low of 8.8% – we have no idea how good we have it!

The robust EU economy is boosting the miners while DCX chipped in with a report of lower-than-expected charges against a massive job cut.

Back home, Mrs. Jones will try to keep the fires burning.  We have construction spending and September home sales at 10 along with the ISM index so don’t trust anything until then.  We would still be thrilled to hold 12K but let’s look upwards as a weak dollar will give a lot of our local boys an initial boost.

The S&P faces a challenge at 1,380 that bears watching and, of course, 1,370 is bad.  The NYSE will lead the markets one way or the other but should have good resistance at both 8,800 and 8,700.  The Nasdaq is also stuck between 2,350 and 2,375 and needs to break up soon if we are going to get this party rolling again.http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24comp

The SOX will give us a big warning signal if they slip below 453 but I’m hoping we can stay over that pesky 460 mark today.  The Dow will not be going anywhere without the transports and they will be going nowhere but down if they break below 2,550.

Oil needs to go down and down and down
continue reading





 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX Index Hits Two 18-Year Support Lines, Creates Large Bullish Reversal

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Has the DAX index from Germany experience a large decline of late? Yes, it has!

Has the decline broken long-term rising support lines? Not so far!

This chart looks at the DAX index on a monthly basis over the past 25-years. Over the past 6-years, it has traded sideways inside of the blue rectangle at (1).

The decline this year saw the DAX hit two 18-year rising support lines at (2) last month, where a large bullish reversal took place.

Until broken, important support remains in play at (2), which is bullish for this key index....



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Zero Hedge

Aaand Its Gone... The Biggest Support For Asset Prices

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Since the passage of “tax cuts,” in late 2017, the surge in corporate share buybacks has become a point of much debate. I previously wrote that stock buybacks were setting records over the past couple of years. Jeffery Marc...



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Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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ValueWalk

Activists demand revamp of anti-redlining law

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Over 100 California Community Organizations and Leaders Call for Banking Regulators to Stop Planned Revamp of Anti-Redlining Law during COVID19 Crisis

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Worker, Housing, and Small Business advocates call on all resources to be dedicated to saving lives and responding to Coronavirus

San Francisco--Amongst an unprecedented public health crisis that threatens hundreds of thousands of lives, as small businesses are shuttered across California and the nation, and as millions file for...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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