Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

Another Fed Bank President’s Financial Disclosures Fail the Smell Test

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic

Private Banks operated by the mega Wall Street banks have an unseemly reputation. So when we opened Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s financial disclosure forms and saw that he had a financial relationship with Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank, a red flag went up immediately.

Citibank’s Private Bank was previously the subject of an investigation by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. At a hearing on November 9, 1999, the Chair of the Subcommittee, the late Senator Carl Levin, explained how private banks work. Levin stated:

“Once a person becomes a client of a private bank, the bank’s primary goal generally has been to service that client, and servicing a private bank client almost always means using services that are also the tools of money laundering: secret trusts, offshore accounts, secret name accounts, and shell companies called private investment corporations. These private investment corporations, or PICs, are designed for the purpose of holding and hiding a person’s assets. The assets could be real property, money, stock, art, or other valuables. The nominal officers, trustees, and shareholders of these shell corporations are often themselves shell corporations controlled by the private bank. The PIC then becomes the holder of the various bank and investment accounts, and the ownership of the private bank’s client is buried in the records of so-called secrecy jurisdictions, such as the Cayman Islands.”

In 2019, the New York Times revealed how higher ups at JPMorgan Chase’s Private Bank continued to retain sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein as a client, even after he pled guilty to soliciting sex from a minor and was jailed.

McClatchy newspapers noted in 2016 that “the Panama Papers are full of examples of the wealth-management and ‘private banking’ divisions of U.S. and global banks working with customers to hide their assets elsewhere. Banks listed in the documents – including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch and SunTrust – declined to comment.”



Continue Here





60/40 is Dead. Again.

 

60/40 is Dead. Again.

Courtesy of 

Doing nothing has been one of the best strategies of the last few decades.

I’m talking about the tried and true 60/40 portfolio. 60% stocks. 40% bonds. You had to rebalance, so not exactly nothing, but as close to it as you can get.

Nothing and easy, however, aren’t the same thing. You had to sit through multiple 50% crashes in the stock market. You had to sit on your hands during periods where “everyone” was getting rich. On the spectrum of easy to impossible, doing “nothing” is closer to the latter.

How many people can stay the course for multiple decades? The investor’s principal challenge is to fight the urge to de-risk in a bear market and add risk in a bull market. Most will lose this battle at some point. Some will lose the war.

Historically, the best, again not easiest, but best weapon to fight off these feelings was diversification. I use the word historically because nobody knows what the future holds. Given that 40% of the portfolio is now yielding under 2%, it’s unlikely that the past returns will be matched in the future.

The nightmare scenario for this strategy is that rising rates will bring stocks back down to earth. Low interest rates encourage investors to use their imaginations. But when money has a price, equations start to matter. And, needless to say, rising interest rates are also bad for bonds. So yeah, rising rates would be bad for bonds and probably for stocks too. But the question is, for how long?

If money leaves stocks and money leaves bonds, where does it go? It has to go somewhere, and one of the two largest asset classes in the world is usually the place where money finds a home. The brilliant Nick Maggiulli ran some numbers for me to quantify how often stocks and bonds are both down over a given period of time.

 

Long periods of negative stock and bond returns are rare. Of the 1,137 rolling 12 month periods since 1926, stocks and bonds were both negative on 16 occasions or 1.4% of the time.

Now the huge caveat


continue reading





How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are – and it’s not just the algorithm

 

How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are – and it’s not just the algorithm

pixinoo / Shutterstock

Courtesy of David Beer, University of York

Netflix’s dystopian Korean drama Squid Game has become the streaming platform’s biggest-ever series launch, with 111 million viewers watching at least two minutes of an episode.

Out of the thousands of programmes available on Netflix globally, how did so many people end up watching the same show? The easy answer is an algorithm – a computer program that offers us personalised recommendations on a platform based on our data and that of other users.

Streaming platforms like Netflix, Spotify and Amazon Prime have undoubtedly reshaped the way we consume media, primarily by massively increasing the film, music and TV available to viewers.

How do we cope with so many options? Services like Netflix use algorithms to guide our attention in certain directions, organising content and keeping us active on the platform. As soon as we open the app the personalisation processes begin.

Our cultural landscape is now automated rather than simply being a product of our previous experiences, background and social circles. These algorithms don’t just respond to our tastes, they also shape and influence them.

But focusing too much on the algorithm misses another important cultural transformation that has happened. To make all this content manageable, streaming platforms have introduced new ways of organising culture for us. The categories used to label culture into genres have always been important, but they took on new forms and power with streaming.

Classifying our tastes

The possibilities of streaming have inspired a new “classificatory imagination”. I coined this term to describe how viewing the world through genres, labels and categories helps shape our own identities and sense of place in the world.

While 50 years ago, you might have discovered a handful of music genres through friends or by going to the record shop, the advent of streaming has brought classification and genre to our media consumption on a grand scale. Spotify alone has over five thousand music genres. Listeners also come up…
continue reading





Where Are We In The Market Cycle?

Courtesy of Jesse Felder, TheFelderReport.com

(The following blog post was adapted from a recent Market Comment featured on The Felder Report PREMIUM, as published at ZeroHedge)

Lately, I’ve started to notice many signs suggesting we are now well past the peak in risk appetites. To begin with, Citi’s panic/euphoria model, developed by Tobias Levkovich (and renamed in his honor after he sadly passed away last weekend), is a terrific visual representation of this phenomenon. In the early part of this year, it soared to a new high, taking out the high put in just over 20 years ago, at the height of the Dotcom Mania. It has since rolled over from that peak although it remains in extreme territory.

The popularity of Robinhood’s trading app is another important indicator. Bloomberg reports, “Robinhood’s app downloads, a proxy for account openings, fell 78% in the third quarter compared with the second, said JPMorgan analysts, citing tracking data from Apptopia… Daily active users plunged 40% during the period.” Animal spirits have clearly sustained a damaging blow in recent months; whether that blow proves fatal, though, will be revealed in time.

The fact that interest in day trading is plummeting stands in direct contrast to the fact that interest in getting help for stock market gambling addiction is soaring. The Financial Times reports, “Felicia Grondin, acting executive director of the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey, said… her group’s 1-800-Gambler helpline has received an almost 50 per cent increase in calls related to day trading since the start of the pandemic.” This would seem to suggest we have moved from the party stage to the


continue reading





The SEC Is Taking a Hard Look at Dark Markets, Except for the Darkest of All – Dark Pools

Courtesy of Pam Martens

SEC Commissioner Allison Herren Lee

SEC Commissioner Allison Herren Lee

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

On Tuesday, SEC Commissioner Allison Herren Lee delivered an exceptionally well-researched speech on the rising dangers to the broader U.S. economy from the burgeoning dark private markets for non-publicly traded stocks. She makes many important points.

However, there is a far larger and more dangerous dark market: the Dark Pools owned by the serially-charged mega banks on Wall Street that are trading, on a daily basis in darkness, the publicly-traded stocks that reside in public pension funds and the mutual funds that make up the bulk of retirement funds for tens of millions of Americans.

According to an April 2021 report from McKinsey & Company, “global private equity AUM [Assets Under Management] reached $4.5 trillion in the first half of 2020.” That’s the dark market that SEC Commissioner Lee is worried about.

The publicly-traded market in the U.S. stood at $54.768 trillion as of June 30, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That’s 12 times the size of the global private equity market. Which one do you think represents a greater threat to financial stability in the U.S.?

The SEC has admitted to being understaffed and underfunded. Shouldn’t it focus its limited resources on the biggest threats?

It’s not that the SEC hasn’t been put on notice for a long time now that what is going on in Wall Street’s Dark Pools is nefarious, and, highly likely, illegal.

In 2012, Crown Business published the book, Dark Pools: The Rise of the Machine Traders and the Rigging of the U.S. Stock Market, by Wall Street Journal investigative reporter, Scott Patterson. Patterson described the situation in 2012 as follows:

“…pools within pools, all connected electronically, forming a single sloshing pool of dark electronic liquidity. By 2012, the amount of stock trading that took place in dark pools and internalizers [Wall Street banks trading stocks in-house without the oversight of a stock exchange] was a whopping 40 percent of all trading volume – and it was growing every month.

“Even the lit markets were unfathomably complex, run by giant computers that processed secret trading strategies


continue reading





The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 10 13 2021

PSW's LIVE Weekly Webinar 10-13-2021

Major Topics:

00:00:42 – Charts
00:04:52 – Cotton
00:09:31 – Levi
00:25:28 – 30 year auction
00:28:40 – JNK
00:30:14 – JPM
00:30:39 – MoneyTalk portfolio
00:37:14 – BYD
00:40:07 – Metals: Gold
00:45:33 – HPQ
00:47:21 – SPWR
00:58:30 – VIAC
01:08:10 – Front page news: WSJ
01:19:09 – NFLX

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to see what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to all our webinars, join us at PSW!

Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view our past weekly webinars here.





Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-time aide to former President Donald Trump, has stated that he will not comply with a committee subpoena compelling him to give testimony. Bannon’s lawyers have said their client is not acting out of defiance; rather, he is following the direction of Trump, who, citing executive privilege, has told Bannon not to produce testimony or documents.

Either way, Bannon now faces the prospect of criminal contempt charges.

Bannon isn’t alone in being subpoenaed by the Jan. 6 committee. Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows, former deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino, former chief of staff to the acting United States Secretary of Defense Kash Patel and former Trump Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark have also been served. Meadows, Scavino, Patel and Clark – unlike Bannon – have not said whether they will comply, although their actions suggest a degree of foot-dragging.

The responses to the subpoenas serve to delay and frustrate the committee, which now finds itself caught up in a legal fight that may deny the committee information it seeks.

It also serves to highlight that the committee has an array of tools at its disposal to gather evidence from reluctant witnesses. But there remains lingering uncertainty over how these powers of the committee rub up against claims of presidential executive privilege.

Investigating the ‘darkest days’

Congress handed the committee a fairly wide charge to gather evidence. On June 30, 2021, lawmakers passed House Resolution 503, charging the committee with investigating the activities of law enforcement, intelligence agencies and the armed forces relating to that day as well as uncovering the factors contributing to the attack, including technology, social media and malign foreign influences.

continue reading





Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound that two of the key researchers in its discovery and development won the Nobel Prize in 2015.

I’ve been an infectious disease pharmacist for over 25 years. I’ve also managed patients who delayed proper treatment for their severe COVID-19 infections because they thought ivermectin could cure them.

Although ivermectin has been a game-changer for people with certain infectious diseases, it isn’t going to save patients from COVID-19 infection. In fact, it could cost them their lives.

Let me tell you a short story about the history of ivermectin.

Developing ivermectin for animal use

Ivermectin was first identified in the 1970s during a veterinary drug screening project at Merck Pharmaceuticals. Researchers focused on discovering chemicals that could potentially treat parasitic infections in animals. Common parasites include nematodes, such as flatworms and roundworms, and arthropods, such as fleas and lice. All of these infectious organisms are quite different from viruses.

Merck partnered with the Kitasato Institute, a medical research facility in Japan. Satoshi Omura and his team isolated a group of chemicals called avermectin from bacteria found in a single soil sample near a Japanese golf course. To my knowledge, avermectin has yet to be found in any other soil sample in the world.

Research on avermectin continued for approximately five years. Soon, Merck and the Kitasato Institute developed a less toxic form they named ivermectin. It was approved in 1981 for commercial use in veterinary medicine for parasitic infections in livestock and domestic pets with the brand name Mectizan.

Hand holding a blister packet of ivermectin.

The chemical compounds that make up ivermectin were first discovered in bacteria found in the soil of a Japanese


continue reading





Senate Banking Chair, Sherrod Brown, Gives Fed’s Quarles a Scathing Bon Voyage

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Randal Quarles

Randal Quarles, Vice Chairman for Supervision, Federal Reserve, Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on May 12, 2020

Yesterday was the last day that Randal Quarles served in the post as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve. Senator Sherrod Brown, the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee that oversees the Federal Reserve, used the occasion to send a scorching letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell assessing Quarles’ performance in the job, which began on October 13, 2017. Brown wrote:

“When Vice Chair Quarles was confirmed to his position, banking lobbyists cheered. Not only did he immediately set out a plan to shift post-crisis rules to benefitting industry interests over protecting working families, he dutifully continued his deregulatory efforts even as the economy was shaken by a global pandemic. I am deeply concerned about these efforts during a global economic crisis.”

But it’s not just deregulation that has been a problem with Quarles and Powell at the helm of the Fed. The mega banks that Quarles was supposed to be supervising have grown exponentially more corrupt under this Vice Chair for Supervision.

On September 16, 2019, the U.S. Department of Justice brought racketeering charges against three precious metals traders at JPMorgan Chase. It was the first time that Wall Street veterans could remember that traders of a major U.S. bank were charged under the RICO statute.

One year later, on September 29, 2020, JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay criminal fines and admit to two felony counts of wire fraud for manipulating (spoofing) trading in the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets. The charging document indicated that traders had engaged in “tens of thousands of instances of unlawful trading in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium…as well as thousands of instances of unlawful trading in U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds….”



Continue Here





Putin: $100 Oil Is “Quite Possible”

Courtesy of Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com

It is "quite possible" that the WTI Crude oil prices reach $100 per barrel in light of growing global demand for energy commodities, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on a CNBC panel at the Russian Energy Week on Wednesday.

Asked by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble whether the US benchmark could hit $100 a barrel, Putin replied "That is quite possible."

However, Russia and its allies in the OPEC+ oil producer group want a stable oil market without any shock spikes in prices, Putin said. "Russia and our partners and OPEC + group, I would say we are doing everything possible to make sure the oil market stabilizes," Putin said, according to a translation.

"We are trying not to allow any shock peaks in prices. We certainly do not want to have that — it is not in our interests," the Russian president added.

The OPEC+ group decided last week to stick to their planned 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in collective production in November, despite calls from oil importing nations to add more supply and despite an expected additional demand from a gas-to-oil switch due to record high natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.

Oil prices could hit $100 in case of a colder winter, some analysts and investment banks have said in recent weeks. Record-high natural gas prices are forcing some utilities to switch to oil derivatives instead, boosting demand for crude.

Surging natural gas prices, a cold winter, and reopening of international airline travel could push oil prices to $100 per barrel and trigger the next economic crisis, Bank of America said in early October.

Recovering global oil demand could send oil prices to $100 a barrel at some point at the end of 2022, despite COVID challenges to demand this coming winter, according to one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, Trafigura.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Powell's Stock Trades Leaked, Show Multi-Million Sale As Market Tanked

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With leaked trades in their personal accounts already costing two Fed presidents their jobs, and a third - vice chair Richard Clarida - currently on the ropes amid speculation he will soon follow, a few weeks ago we joked that if forces within the Fed want to get rid of all the hawks, they should just leak Esther George - the Fed's last remaining uberhawk - trading record.

If the Fed wants to get rid of all the hawks, they just need to leak Esther George's etrade blotter

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) ...

more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Another Fed Bank President's Financial Disclosures Fail the Smell Test

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic

Private Banks operated by the mega Wall Street banks have an unseemly reputation. So when we opened Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s financial disclosure forms and saw that he had a financial relationship with Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank, a red flag went up immediately.

Citibank’s Private Bank was previously the subject of an investigation by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. At a h...



more from Ilene

Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Ethereum's Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After a stellar start to the year, which saw its price soar to an all time high above $4,100, trouncing virtually all of its crypto peers, Ethereum has stagnated in recent weeks, with its place in the spotlight taken by bitcoin whose impressive outperformance has been the result of now confirmed speculation that a bitcoin futures ETF is coming. It also meant that what has traditionally been a close correlation between the two largest cryptos has broken in favor of the larger peer; it would also suggest that ethereum is trading about $1000 cheap vs bitcoin.

...



more from Bitcoin

Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



more from Politics

Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.