Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!
Rookie IRA Investor
I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.
Pstas
Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!
Humvee
Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,
RMM
Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours.
Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!
Eyezz
Happy Thanksgiving Phil and to your family and associates. Also to all of the other fellow citizens of Phil's Stock World. I am particularly happy and thankful that I clicked on your article in Seeking Alpha a number of years ago. That opened the gate to Phil's Stock World and "being the house". My wallet thanks you as does my peace of mind in trading options, stocks and rarely futures. Your liberal views opened up my views—being a boot strapper (pulled myself out of a poor background) I was a CONSERVATIVE—cynical of others who weren't as driven. Now, I am much less so; you have taught me more than how to make money and manage risk. So, again I give thanks to you and the others of PSW!!
Newthugger
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Captain Mogul
Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.
Craigsa620
Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013)
Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…
Arivera
Phil/CLK4 – Perfect! Saw the answer 1 min after my post…out with $740 on two contracts. Thanks again for the education.
Jeffdoc2004
Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!
Jromeha
Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.
Nramanuja
Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.
rj_jarboe
Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.
Winston
Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.
Acd54
CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!
Scottmi
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
Investwizard
Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.
Craigsa620
Why were the analysts wrong?
If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also.
But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.
Denlundy
Phil,
thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you.
I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week.
thank you!
DawnR
I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.
Aquila
I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.
Snow
By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!
Microflux
Happy holidays to all members of PSW. Just completed my 6th year and still my favorite site to read. Thank you all for your contributions and support especially you, Phil!
DClark41
Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.
CdsdpDean
The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.
Winston
On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.
Iflantheman
Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !
Gel1
Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"
Gel1
Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.
There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.
If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down.
It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will scare you away from buying them.
Prices don’t fall 30% for no reason. Never have. Never will.
Whether it’s crypto or stocks or anything else, buying on weakness is way easier said than done.
It’s not good enough to say you’ll buy the dip. You need a real plan. Write it down. Stick to it. Use real numbers. “I will buy $1,000 worth of X when it hits $Y.” If you don’t write it down, it’s never going to happen.
One of Richard Feynman’s greatest quotes is, “You must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.” Don’t be a fool. Have a plan.
COVID-19 has accelerated the growth in the digital economy through a dramatic increase in working from home, online shopping, digital entertainment, online services, among other areas. Ideas such as telemigration in which people from different parts of the world work in virtual offices might once have sounded outrageous. Today, many are already working from home through video streaming.
A completely virtual future is perhaps unlikely, but such shifts are a fundamental challenge to how we organise societies. Laws and regulations governing trade, taxation, labour, and social security, among other areas, are largely based on geographically-defined states that contain and regulate our economic and social activities.
This applies to the global economic order which consists of agreements between states to manage interactions between them. For example, an international regime regulates services based on how the service is supplied, in turn determined by where the buyer and seller are. For trade in goods, borders are used to implement rules such as tariffs and standards.
In taxation, the shift from physical to digital has resulted in a major challenge to taxation law. Similarly, living in one country and working in another remains a bureaucratic challenge even in some of the most integrated economies in the world.
Over recent years, there have been debates on how to deal with these changes amid ongoing technological shifts. At a fundamental level, we face two options. Is the task facing us is how we adapt our existing rules and regulations to accommodate these new technologies? Or do we need to think of completely new modes of regulations that govern our economic and social relations in a new technological age?
So far, the focus has been on the former. In trade, for example, discussions have focused, often with little success, on issues such as deciding if data flows are trade, how we impose tariffs on goods that are traded electronically, or whether an e-book is a good or a service.
Alternatively, we might want to think of the ongoing…
World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images
COVID-19 is notoriously hard to control, and political leaders are only part of the calculus when it comes to pandemic management. But some current and former world leaders have made little effort to combat outbreaks in their country, whether by downplaying the pandemic’s severity, disregarding science or ignoring critical health interventions like social distancing and masks. All of the men on this list committed at least one of those mistakes, and some committed all of them – with deadly consequences.
In January 2021, Modi declared at a global forum that India had “saved humanity … by containing corona effectively.” In March, his health minister proclaimed that the pandemic was reaching an “endgame.” COVID-19 was actually gaining strength in India and worldwide – but his government made no preparations for possible contingencies, such as the emergence of a deadlier and more contagious COVID-19 variant.
5:30pm ET LIVE premiere today – Subscribe for the alert!
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:
Hedge Fund 13Fs – What the most legendary investors were buying and selling in the first quarter of 2021.
The Big Short Part II – Famed short seller Michael Burry buys over $500 million in put options on Tesla.
TimeWarner Merger – “There’s no way this deal doesn’t make AT&T look like fools.”
Investing Through Inflation – Michael offers his rebuttal to the Barron’s cover story.
First Knicks Playoffs Since ‘13 – A lot has happened since the Knicks last reached the postseason.
Credit Card Debt – Is responsible consumer behavior threatening the profitability of credit card issuers?
Different Standards – A viewer asks why Bill Miller’s track record is more heavily criticized than his peers.
All Aboard Cathie’s ARKK – Is it reckless to have 100% of your retirement account riding on ARKK?
And much more!
Josh and Michael (and Ben) use YCharts when creating visuals for this show, as well as for many aspects of their business: http://go.ycharts.com/compound
On February 24, President Joe Biden renewed the 2020 Presidential Proclamation, making it clear that the National Emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic is still in effect. Most Americans don’t expect to become the victims of state-sanctioned price gouging during a National Emergency. But across Florida, struggling families and senior citizens are opening their homeowners’ insurance renewal notices to learn that their policy will now cost them $800 to $1200 more than it did last year.
Rates are going up by 30 to 40 percent in many cases – during a National Emergency. Making the outrage among residents more palpable is the fact that a hurricane didn’t even touch down in Florida in 2020.
A three bedroom/two bath cement block home with a tile roof is costing anywhere from $2800 to more than $3000 to insure in South Florida. In the three most southern counties on the East Coast of Florida (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade) homes located inland can cost over $6,000 to ensure with nose-bleed increases occurring for waterfront homes.
Florida insurance companies (some of which are paying multi-million dollar salaries to their CEOs and paying out tens of millions of dollars each year in stock buybacks and cash dividends to benefit their shareholders), have succeeded in convincing the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation that they deserve the rate hikes because they are the victims of frivolous lawsuits by unconscionable lawyers; they are experiencing financial hardship for claims still being paid for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Michael in 2018; and that their reinsurance costs have risen.
One Florida State legislator who’s not buying the spin that the insurers are successfully selling to state regulators is Florida State Senator Gary Farmer. Farmer was quoted by Dennis Bailey, a former Circuit Judge and now head of the Trial division at the Merlin Law Group, as follows:
“They hide their profits. They pay them to sister and related companies…The insurers are just cooking the books and coming here and crying poverty to us and everything is being done on the backs of homeowners.”
· There are no easy solutions to shoring up U.S. national cyber defenses.
· Software supply chains and private sector infrastructure companies are vulnerable to hackers.
· Many U.S. companies outsource software development because of a talent shortage, and some of that outsourcing goes to companies in Eastern Europe that are vulnerable to Russian operatives.
· U.S. national cyber defense is split between the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security, which leaves gaps in authority.
The ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline on May 7, 2021, exemplifies the huge challenges the U.S. faces in shoring up its cyber defenses. The private company, which controls a significant component of the U.S. energy infrastructure and supplies nearly half of the East Coast’s liquid fuels, was vulnerable to an all-too-common type of cyber attack. The FBI has attributed the attack to a Russian cybercrime gang. It would be difficult for the government to mandate better security at private companies, and the government is unable to provide that security for the private sector.
Similarly, the SolarWinds hack, one of the most devastating cyber attacks in history, which came to light in December 2020, exposed vulnerabilities in global software supply chains that affect government and private sector computer systems. It was a major breach of national security that revealed gaps in U.S. cyber defenses.
These gaps include inadequate security by a major software producer, fragmented authority for government support to the private sector, blurred lines between organized crime and international espionage, and a national shortfall in software and cybersecurity skills. None of these gaps is easily bridged, but the scope and impact of the SolarWinds attack show how critical controlling these gaps is to U.S. national security.
Just about every indicator of drought is flashing red across the western U.S. after a dry winter and warm early spring. The snowpack is at less than half of normal in much of the region. Reservoirs are being drawn down, river levels are dropping and soils are drying out.
It’s only May, and states are already considering water use restrictions to make the supply last longer. California’s governor declared a drought emergency in 41 of 58 counties. In Utah, irrigation water providers are increasing fines for overuse. Some Idaho ranchers are talking about selling off livestock because rivers and reservoirs they rely on are dangerously low and irrigation demand for farms is only just beginning.
Scientists are also closely watching the impact that the rapid warming and drying is having on trees, worried that water stress could lead to widespreadtree deaths. Dead and drying vegetation means more fuel for what is already expected to be another dangerous fire season.
U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters on May 13, 2021, that federal fire officials had warned them to prepare for an extremely active fire year. “We used to call it fire season, but wildland fires now extend throughout the entire year, burning hotter and growing more catastrophic in drier conditions due to climate change,” Vilsack said.
I’ve been saying this for a few weeks now, and maybe the Fed simply sees something that the rest of us don’t, but existing home prices jumping 20% in a year doesn’t quite scream S.O.S. to me. It doesn’t seem to require a relentless stream of billions of dollars in asset purchases.
In my town, on the south shore of Long Island, houses are listed at 10 o’clock in the morning and by 5 pm they’ve been sold. Every homeowner thinks their house is worth a million dollars simply because a million dollars is accessible to more buyers than ever before. Thank the wealth effect from the stock market and the cheapest borrowing rates in history.
Free money is combining with the constrained supply situation from the economy’s reopening to produce huge disruptions and distortions. There’s a lumber shortage for building. You can’t get appliances. You can’t get a plumber. There’s a f***ing swimming pool waiting list. Who ever heard of such a thing? You can’t find a handyman to change a lightbulb. You could leave a trail of hundred dollar bills to your door and still not find any takers for your job, large or small. The landscapers are working day and night to keep up.
The builders won’t build at a loss, so what little supply exists is being snapped up like white truffles in September. Have a look at this chart of housing inventory via Ben:
Yes, you are reading that correctly. We have two months’ worth of single family homes available for purchase. And ceaseless demand as tens of millions of Gen Y households are forming.
So, remind me – why on earth is the Fed signaling that they’ll continue to buy mortgage bonds to the tune of $40 billion worth per month, every month, as far as the eye can see? What exactly does this accomplish? What are we missing?
During the current month of May, 2021, the following commodities have all set record high prices: lumber, iron ore, steel and copper. The volatility in the price of lumber this month has looked not all that dissimilar to the crazy price swings in the shares of GameStop, which have been under investigation for months by the U.S. Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees. Thus far, however, there have been no announced hearings into what is causing these wild moves in commodity prices.
From 2016 through 2019, lumber prices traded between $300 and $600 per 1,000 board feet. During just this month, however, lumber has spiked to as high as $1,733.50. It closed on Friday at $1,390.
These skyrocketing prices in commodities are more than a little peculiar. The federal government believes that the economy of the U.S. is at such grave risk that Congress needed to infuse $1.9 trillion into the economy in a stimulus bill passed just two months ago.
The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations.
While the live events are mostly over now, your SIC pass gives you full video, downloadable audio, slide presentations and (soon) written transcripts of every session. They are all still quite fresh and relevant, so don’t feel like you missed the opportunity. (Note: I’ve never heard a greater discussion of inflation and/or deflation from so many perspectives. We will go into that in detail in the coming weeks.)
In fact, all this material gives you a chance to customize your experience. You can watch the recorded sessions on your own schedule, in whatever order suits you—though I would urge you if possible to watch in the sequence we presented them. I arranged the agenda as it is for specific reasons. But however you do it, get your pass now.
My next few letters will be reflections on the wide-ranging SIC presentations. I find it takes a little time for all the information to coalesce into conclusions. I’ll try to do this thematically, linking together some of the varying thoughts on different topics. Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
I placed our China panel on Day 1 of the conference because, in the big picture, it is one of the more important long-term discussions that we need to have. China’s entry into the modern world economy, and especially the WTO in 2001, may be the most significant development of the last half-century. Its sheer size and rapid growth are simply unprecedented in human history. China affects everything.
To unpack the latest China developments, I pulled together Louis Gave, George Friedman, Emily de La Bruyère (remember that name, I promise you are going to hear more from her in the future,
There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.
If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down.
It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...
There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.
If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down.
It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...
World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images
A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).
“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.
“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”
A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the remova...
As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment
Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images
The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.
Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...
Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.
Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.
At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...
The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt
On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...
The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign.
Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
I’ve been saying this for a few weeks now, and maybe the Fed simply sees something that the rest of us don’t, but existing home prices jumping 20% in a year doesn’t quite scream S.O.S. to me. It doesn’t seem to require a relentless stream of billions of dollars in asset purchases.
The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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