Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will scare you away from buying them. 

Prices don’t fall 30% for no reason. Never have. Never will.

Whether it’s crypto or stocks or anything else, buying on weakness is way easier said than done.

It’s not good enough to say you’ll buy the dip. You need a real plan. Write it down. Stick to it. Use real numbers. “I will buy $1,000 worth of X when it hits $Y.” If you don’t write it down, it’s never going to happen.

One of Richard Feynman’s greatest quotes is, “You must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.” Don’t be a fool. Have a plan.

Read Michael's Bitcoin is Crashing. This is What it Does too. 





Navigating a new digital era means changing the world economic order

 

Navigating a new digital era means changing the world economic order

Online shopping and services have grown during COVID-19. Natee Photo/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Shamel Azmeh, University of Manchester

COVID-19 has accelerated the growth in the digital economy through a dramatic increase in working from home, online shopping, digital entertainment, online services, among other areas. Ideas such as telemigration in which people from different parts of the world work in virtual offices might once have sounded outrageous. Today, many are already working from home through video streaming.

A completely virtual future is perhaps unlikely, but such shifts are a fundamental challenge to how we organise societies. Laws and regulations governing trade, taxation, labour, and social security, among other areas, are largely based on geographically-defined states that contain and regulate our economic and social activities.

This applies to the global economic order which consists of agreements between states to manage interactions between them. For example, an international regime regulates services based on how the service is supplied, in turn determined by where the buyer and seller are. For trade in goods, borders are used to implement rules such as tariffs and standards.

In taxation, the shift from physical to digital has resulted in a major challenge to taxation law. Similarly, living in one country and working in another remains a bureaucratic challenge even in some of the most integrated economies in the world.

Over recent years, there have been debates on how to deal with these changes amid ongoing technological shifts. At a fundamental level, we face two options. Is the task facing us is how we adapt our existing rules and regulations to accommodate these new technologies? Or do we need to think of completely new modes of regulations that govern our economic and social relations in a new technological age?

So far, the focus has been on the former. In trade, for example, discussions have focused, often with little success, on issues such as deciding if data flows are trade, how we impose tariffs on goods that are traded electronically, or whether an e-book is a good or a service.

Alternatively, we might want to think of the ongoing…
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World’s worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

 

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images

By Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles; Elizabeth J King, University of Michigan; Elize Massard da Fonseca, Fundação Getulio Vargas; Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, and Scott L. Greer, University of Michigan

COVID-19 is notoriously hard to control, and political leaders are only part of the calculus when it comes to pandemic management. But some current and former world leaders have made little effort to combat outbreaks in their country, whether by downplaying the pandemic’s severity, disregarding science or ignoring critical health interventions like social distancing and masks. All of the men on this list committed at least one of those mistakes, and some committed all of them – with deadly consequences.

Narendra Modi of India

Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University

India is the new epicenter of the global pandemic, recording some 400,000 new cases per day by May 2021. However grim, this statistic fails to capture the sheer horror unfolding there. COVID-19 patients are dying in hospitals because doctors have no oxygen to give and no lifesaving drugs like remdesivir. The sick are turned away from clinics that have no free beds.

Many Indians blame one man for the country’s tragedy: Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In January 2021, Modi declared at a global forum that India had “saved humanity … by containing corona effectively.” In March, his health minister proclaimed that the pandemic was reaching an “endgame.” COVID-19 was actually gaining strength in India and worldwide – but his government made no preparations for possible contingencies, such as the emergence of a deadlier and more contagious COVID-19 variant.

Even as significant pockets of the country had not fully suppressed the virus, Modi and other members of his party held jampacked outdoor campaign rallies before April elections. Few attendees wore masks. Modi also allowed a religious festival that draws millions to proceed
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Will Inflation Crash the Stock Market?

 

Will Inflation Crash the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Josh Brown's The Reformed Broker

5:30pm ET LIVE premiere today – Subscribe for the alert!

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:

  • Hedge Fund 13Fs – What the most legendary investors were buying and selling in the first quarter of 2021.
  • The Big Short Part II – Famed short seller Michael Burry buys over $500 million in put options on Tesla.
  • TimeWarner Merger – “There’s no way this deal doesn’t make AT&T look like fools.”
  • Investing Through Inflation – Michael offers his rebuttal to the Barron’s cover story.
  • First Knicks Playoffs Since ‘13 – A lot has happened since the Knicks last reached the postseason.
  • Credit Card Debt – Is responsible consumer behavior threatening the profitability of credit card issuers?
  • Different Standards – A viewer asks why Bill Miller’s track record is more heavily criticized than his peers.
  • All Aboard Cathie’s ARKK – Is it reckless to have 100% of your retirement account riding on ARKK?

And much more!

Josh and Michael (and Ben) use YCharts when creating visuals for this show, as well as for many aspects of their business: http://go.ycharts.com/compound

Standard disclaimer

Check out the Goldmine podcast to hear more from Michael, Josh and the rest of the Ritholtz Mafia.

 




Homeowners’ Insurance Companies in Florida Are Raising Rates by Unprecedented Amounts, Effectively Confiscating the Stimulus Checks from Struggling Families and Seniors

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Broken Piggy BankOn February 24, President Joe Biden renewed the 2020 Presidential Proclamation, making it clear that the National Emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic is still in effect. Most Americans don’t expect to become the victims of state-sanctioned price gouging during a National Emergency. But across Florida, struggling families and senior citizens are opening their homeowners’ insurance renewal notices to learn that their policy will now cost them $800 to $1200 more than it did last year.

Rates are going up by 30 to 40 percent in many cases – during a National Emergency. Making the outrage among residents more palpable is the fact that a hurricane didn’t even touch down in Florida in 2020.

A three bedroom/two bath cement block home with a tile roof is costing anywhere from $2800 to more than $3000 to insure in South Florida. In the three most southern counties on the East Coast of Florida (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade) homes located inland can cost over $6,000 to ensure with nose-bleed increases occurring for waterfront homes.

Florida insurance companies (some of which are paying multi-million dollar salaries to their CEOs and paying out tens of millions of dollars each year in stock buybacks and cash dividends to benefit their shareholders), have succeeded in convincing the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation that they deserve the rate hikes because they are the victims of frivolous lawsuits by unconscionable lawyers; they are experiencing financial hardship for claims still being paid for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Michael in 2018; and that their reinsurance costs have risen.

One Florida State legislator who’s not buying the spin that the insurers are successfully selling to state regulators is Florida State Senator Gary Farmer. Farmer was quoted by Dennis Bailey, a former Circuit Judge and now head of the Trial division at the Merlin Law Group, as follows:

“They hide their profits. They pay them to sister and related companies…The insurers are just cooking the books and coming here and crying poverty to us and everything is being done on the backs of homeowners.”

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The Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack and the SolarWinds hack were all but inevitable – why national cyber defense is a ‘wicked’ problem

 

The Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack and the SolarWinds hack were all but inevitable – why national cyber defense is a 'wicked' problem

Military units like the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade shown here are just one component of U.S. national cyber defense. Fort George G. Meade Public Affairs Office/Flickr

Courtesy of Terry Thompson, Johns Hopkins University

Takeaways:

· There are no easy solutions to shoring up U.S. national cyber defenses.

· Software supply chains and private sector infrastructure companies are vulnerable to hackers.

· Many U.S. companies outsource software development because of a talent shortage, and some of that outsourcing goes to companies in Eastern Europe that are vulnerable to Russian operatives.

· U.S. national cyber defense is split between the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security, which leaves gaps in authority.

The ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline on May 7, 2021, exemplifies the huge challenges the U.S. faces in shoring up its cyber defenses. The private company, which controls a significant component of the U.S. energy infrastructure and supplies nearly half of the East Coast’s liquid fuels, was vulnerable to an all-too-common type of cyber attack. The FBI has attributed the attack to a Russian cybercrime gang. It would be difficult for the government to mandate better security at private companies, and the government is unable to provide that security for the private sector.

Similarly, the SolarWinds hack, one of the most devastating cyber attacks in history, which came to light in December 2020, exposed vulnerabilities in global software supply chains that affect government and private sector computer systems. It was a major breach of national security that revealed gaps in U.S. cyber defenses.

These gaps include inadequate security by a major software producer, fragmented authority for government support to the private sector, blurred lines between organized crime and international espionage, and a national shortfall in software and cybersecurity skills. None of these gaps is easily bridged, but the scope and impact of the SolarWinds attack show how critical controlling these gaps is to U.S. national security.

A chain-link fence topped with barbed wire in the foreground, large pipes and valves in front of a large white storage tank labeled Colonial Pipeline Co


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Another dangerous fire season is looming in the Western U.S., and the drought-stricken region is headed for a water crisis

 

Another dangerous fire season is looming in the Western U.S., and the drought-stricken region is headed for a water crisis

Courtesy of Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University; Amir AghaKouchak, University of California, Irvine, and John Abatzoglou, University of California, Merced

Just about every indicator of drought is flashing red across the western U.S. after a dry winter and warm early spring. The snowpack is at less than half of normal in much of the region. Reservoirs are being drawn down, river levels are dropping and soils are drying out.

It’s only May, and states are already considering water use restrictions to make the supply last longer. California’s governor declared a drought emergency in 41 of 58 counties. In Utah, irrigation water providers are increasing fines for overuse. Some Idaho ranchers are talking about selling off livestock because rivers and reservoirs they rely on are dangerously low and irrigation demand for farms is only just beginning.

Scientists are also closely watching the impact that the rapid warming and drying is having on trees, worried that water stress could lead to widespread tree deaths. Dead and drying vegetation means more fuel for what is already expected to be another dangerous fire season.

U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters on May 13, 2021, that federal fire officials had warned them to prepare for an extremely active fire year. “We used to call it fire season, but wildland fires now extend throughout the entire year, burning hotter and growing more catastrophic in drier conditions due to climate change,” Vilsack said.

As climate scientists, we track these changes. Right now, about 84% of the western U.S. is under some level of drought, and there is no sign of relief.

Color-coded map showing drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor for mid-May shows nearly half of the West in severe or extreme drought. National Drought Mitigation Center/USDA/NOAA

The many faces of drought

Several types of drought are converging in the West this year, and all are at or near record levels.

When too little rain…
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Stimulating the housing market is psychotic

 

Stimulating the housing market is psychotic

Courtesy of 

I’ve been saying this for a few weeks now, and maybe the Fed simply sees something that the rest of us don’t, but existing home prices jumping 20% in a year doesn’t quite scream S.O.S. to me. It doesn’t seem to require a relentless stream of billions of dollars in asset purchases.

In my town, on the south shore of Long Island, houses are listed at 10 o’clock in the morning and by 5 pm they’ve been sold. Every homeowner thinks their house is worth a million dollars simply because a million dollars is accessible to more buyers than ever before. Thank the wealth effect from the stock market and the cheapest borrowing rates in history.

Free money is combining with the constrained supply situation from the economy’s reopening to produce huge disruptions and distortions. There’s a lumber shortage for building. You can’t get appliances. You can’t get a plumber. There’s a f***ing swimming pool waiting list. Who ever heard of such a thing? You can’t find a handyman to change a lightbulb. You could leave a trail of hundred dollar bills to your door and still not find any takers for your job, large or small. The landscapers are working day and night to keep up.

The builders won’t build at a loss, so what little supply exists is being snapped up like white truffles in September. Have a look at this chart of housing inventory via Ben:

Yes, you are reading that correctly. We have two months’ worth of single family homes available for purchase. And ceaseless demand as tens of millions of Gen Y households are forming.

So, remind me – why on earth is the Fed signaling that they’ll continue to buy mortgage bonds to the tune of $40 billion worth per month, every month, as far as the eye can see? What exactly does this accomplish? What are we missing?

Here’s Peter Boockvar:

The economic data this week shifts more so to housing with the NAHB builder survey


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Are Record-Setting Commodity Prices a Result of Demand or Futures Manipulation?

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Commodity Prices Set Records in May 2021

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Terrence Duffy, Chairman and CEO, CME Group

Terrence Duffy, Chairman and CEO, CME Group

During the current month of May, 2021, the following commodities have all set record high prices: lumber, iron ore, steel and copper. The volatility in the price of lumber this month has looked not all that dissimilar to the crazy price swings in the shares of GameStop, which have been under investigation for months by the U.S. Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees. Thus far, however, there have been no announced hearings into what is causing these wild moves in commodity prices.

From 2016 through 2019, lumber prices traded between $300 and $600 per 1,000 board feet. During just this month, however, lumber has spiked to as high as $1,733.50. It closed on Friday at $1,390.

These skyrocketing prices in commodities are more than a little peculiar. The federal government believes that the economy of the U.S. is at such grave risk that Congress needed to infuse $1.9 trillion into the economy in a stimulus bill passed just two months ago.


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A Giant Consumptive Force

 

A Giant Consumptive Force

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations.

While the live events are mostly over now, your SIC pass gives you full video, downloadable audio, slide presentations and (soon) written transcripts of every session. They are all still quite fresh and relevant, so don’t feel like you missed the opportunity. (Note: I’ve never heard a greater discussion of inflation and/or deflation from so many perspectives. We will go into that in detail in the coming weeks.)

In fact, all this material gives you a chance to customize your experience. You can watch the recorded sessions on your own schedule, in whatever order suits you—though I would urge you if possible to watch in the sequence we presented them. I arranged the agenda as it is for specific reasons. But however you do it, get your pass now.

My next few letters will be reflections on the wide-ranging SIC presentations. I find it takes a little time for all the information to coalesce into conclusions. I’ll try to do this thematically, linking together some of the varying thoughts on different topics. Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.

Cold War or Not?

I placed our China panel on Day 1 of the conference because, in the big picture, it is one of the more important long-term discussions that we need to have. China’s entry into the modern world economy, and especially the WTO in 2001, may be the most significant development of the last half-century. Its sheer size and rapid growth are simply unprecedented in human history. China affects everything.

To unpack the latest China developments, I pulled together Louis Gave, George Friedman, Emily de La Bruyère (remember that name, I promise you are going to hear more from her in the future,


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Phil's Favorites

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



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Digital Currencies

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech/COVID-19

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

 

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images

By Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles; ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).

“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.

“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”

A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the remova...



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Politics

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

 

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images

Courtesy of James L. Gelvin, University of California, Los Angeles

The images and reports coming from Israel, Jerusale...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
...

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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.