Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

DARK TOWERS by David Enrich

 

In his best-selling book Dark Towers, David Enrich, finance editor at The New York Times, chronicles the complicated history of Deutsche Bank and its entanglement with Donald Trump. Reviewing Dark Towers, Roger Lowenstein writes, 

"Enrich’s most tantalizing nugget is that in the summer of 2016, Jared Kushner’s real estate company (which received lavish financing from Deutsche) was moving money to various Russians. A bank compliance officer filed a “suspicious activity report,” but the report was quashed and she was fired. The suggestion that maybe the money was payback for Russian campaign meddling isn’t one that Enrich can prove. Similarly, we will have to wait to see if Deutsche can recover from years of banking malpractice that destroyed its capital and wiped out 95 percent of its stock price. In the meantime, Enrich has given us a thorough, clearly written and generally levelheaded account of a bank that lost its way."

****

From the book DARK TOWERS: Deutsche Bank, Donald Trump, and an Epic Trail of Destruction by David Enrich. Copyright © 2020 by David Enrich. From Custom House, a line of books from William Morrow/HarperCollins Publishers. Reprinted by permission.

In 2010, Deutsche hired a young man named Eric Ben-Artzi to work in its risk-management group, with a specific focus on its holdings of hard-to-value derivatives. Ben-Artzi had grown up in Israel in a family full of big, stubborn personalities. His grandfathers fought to secure Israel’s independence. One of his uncles was a paratrooper killed in action. Another uncle was Benjamin Netanyahu, the once and future prime minister. Ben- Artzi’s brother had become Israel’s most famous, or infamous, refusenik—a conscientious objector who was locked up for shirking his mandatory conscription in Israel’s armed forces. Less dramatically, Eric became a mathematician and computer programmer. Like so many others with those qualifications, he had drifted into banking, lured by the money and the challenges of solving complex financial riddles. But after a spell at Goldman Sachs, he discovered that he didn’t have the right constitution for Wall Street. The way he saw it, he wasn’t aggressive enough to be a salesman and wasn’t greedy enough to be a banker. His goal was to ease into academia, and he figured the Deutsche gig— with a heavy emphasis on theoretical research about…
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How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

 

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

Courtesy of 

Despite the recent selloff, things are still relatively fine. I know nobody wants to hear this right now, but the S&P 500 is still up double digits over the last year and 36% over the last three years. What has people shook, understandably, is the speed of this decline.

Depending on where stocks close today, we could be looking at a 10% haircut in just five sessions. Over the last 20 years, this only happened during the Yuan devaluation in 2015, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, the GFC (global financial crisis) in ’08 and ’09, and the dotcom bubble in ’00, ’01, and ’02.

Over the next few days, or maybe even weeks and months, people are going to be looking for signs of a stock market bottom.

On December 27th 2018 I wrote, “The Dow just had its best day since March 2009, having many of us wondering, was this the bottom? Is the bear market over?”

Yes, it was.

On that day there were a lot of people saying “this is not how the stock market bottoms.” For the record, in no way am I saying I called the bottom, I didn’t, and was probably one of the people thinking that, even if I didn’t say it publicly.

At the time I remember being worried because stocks just could not catch a bid. For five straight days, the market tried to rally off their lows and failed. On the sixth straight day of selling, there was no attempt at a recovery. The wheels completely fell off.

The reason I was so concerned is because market crashes typically happen from periods of weakness, like December 2018.

In October 2008, for example, the S&P 500 was 26% off its highs. It fell another 16.8% that month, and had another 31% to go before reaching its final nadir. In December 2018, I wasn’t remotely thinking we were about to experience another 2008, but I absolutely was worried about the potential for another whoosh lower.

And then, the next day, it stopped. Not with a


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How Tinder is being used for more than just hook-ups

 

How Tinder is being used for more than just hook-ups

A recent study uncovered a variety of surprising ways that people used Tinder in their lives. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Stefanie Duguay, Concordia University

The developers of the dating app Tinder recently announced that new safety features would be added to its app throughout 2020. These updates include a means to connect users with emergency services when they feel unsafe and more safety information provided through the app.

Given that many users, especially women, experience harassment, sexism and threatening behaviour on Tinder, these appear to be positive steps to addressing such issues.

Tinder also mentioned app updates will incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) to validate profile photos. Their blog explains:

“The [AI] feature allows members to self-authenticate through a series of real-time posed selfies, which are compared to existing profile photos using human-assisted AI technology.”

Whereas Tinder’s connection to Facebook previously served to validate user identity, the app now lets users join without linking Facebook. Features like this AI-powered photo validation are intended to enhance users’ trust in each other’s authenticity.

Authenticating users

We already know that people tend to fib a bit on their dating profiles to counter idealized perceptions of the desirable age, height and weight of a potential partner. Users of the app also selectively disclose details and elements of their appearance to avoid racism, sexism and homophobia.

People have long appropriated technologies to make them fit with their lives. This process is called domestication. It is achieved when we no longer notice technology because it works so well for us. For example, after setting up a smart speaker to play your favourite tunes after work, you may no longer notice the speaker at all when you arrive home and start humming along.

My recently published study uncovered a variety of surprising ways that people used Tinder in their lives. However, platforms and apps like Tinder are social technologies, and users take notice when members use them for something unexpected. Platform companies may also take note. Their updates to features or functions can make some…
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NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Street trading floor were unavailable,” Fox says.

To reiterate, the disaster recovery plan is to check the process that would occur if Covid-19 'public distancing' proposals come into effect and effectively shut the trading floor?!

The test is reported to occur March 7 between 8:30 am-11 am.

Remember, do not panic!

 





Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

 

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

Secret Cinema’s production of Moulin Rouge. Secret Cinema

Courtesy of Sarah Atkinson, King's College London and Helen W. Kennedy, University of Nottingham

Disney’s recent deal with the immersive experience company Secret Cinema signals a new era for the cinema industry. New film titles from the Disney portfolio will be staged as immersive experiences in London by Secret Cinema later in 2020 before being exported to America.

Secret Cinema is renowned for its expanded immersive cinematic worlds staged in a variety of disused warehouses and open-air locations, creating experiences that last for several hours. Costumed participants surrender their phones and interact with characters from the film the event is based on and with each other. This all leads up to an augmented screening of the film.

Trends suggest that investors see immersive experiences as a hot sector, so the economic and cultural implications of this deal for the US$160 billion (£123 billion) global sector are huge. The unique combination of Disney’s global reach and the successful track record of Secret Cinema means that this powerful partnership will shape the global direction of the immersive experience economy for years to come.

This is a sector that favours experience over product. What began in live music, festivals and sporting events has spread to all aspects of the leisure economy. Dining out, shopping and film going have all been made into engaging experiences – and the more immersive and escapist, the better.

Secret Cinema has been building its brand since 2007 when it started with small, underground and clandestine events such as for the indie film Paranoid Park in a disused railway tunnel. As the operation grew, Secret Cinema productions gradually became big box office events and they have repeatedly found themselves towards the top of the box office charts, even when staging events based around films that are over 20 years old.

Secret Cinema has also been pioneering large-scale event-led distribution strategies for new releases, from a production of Ridley Scott’s 2012 film Prometheus to coincide with the movie’s premiere, to most recently (in 2017)…
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Don’t fear a ‘robot apocalypse’ – tomorrow’s digital jobs will be more satisfying and higher-paid

 

Don't fear a 'robot apocalypse' – tomorrow's digital jobs will be more satisfying and higher-paid

Tomorrow’s good jobs will require digital skills like programming. alvarez/Getty Images

Courtesy of Christos A. Makridis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

If you’re concerned that automation and artificial intelligence are going to disrupt the economy over the next decade, join the club. But while policymakers and academics agree there’ll be significant disruption, they differ about its impact.

On one hand, techno-pessimists like Martin Ford in “Rise of the Robots” argue that new forms of automation will displace most jobs without creating new ones. In other words, most of us will lose our jobs.

On the flip side of the debate are techno-optimists such as Erik Brynjolfsson and Andy McAfee. In “The Second Machine Age,” they contend that continued investments in education and research and development will offset the job losses and generate many new human tasks that complement AI.

While I can’t predict who will turn out to be right, I do have some good news based on my own research and the work of others: Tomorrow’s digital jobs will likely pay better and be more satisfying than today’s. And, as Brynjolfsson and McAfee noted, education holds the key to ensuring there are enough to go around.

Bigger paychecks

Researchers have been studying jobs that involve digital skills for years to try to understand their value. But what does it really mean for a job or skill to be “digital”?

In earlier research, all it meant was that a worker used a computer. Since nearly all workers use a PC today, we need a more refined definition of digital skills that takes into account how much a job depends on doing things like programming, crunching data in Excel spreadsheets and even using a smartphone.

In research conducted with economist Giovanni Gallipoli at the University of British Columbia, we created a new way to measure digital or information technology skills in the labor market based on how frequently they’re used in an occupation. For example, how much time does a financial adviser spend analyzing…
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Why Would Goldman Sachs and BofA Throw Gasoline on the Stock Market Fire Yesterday?

Courtesy of Pam Martens

CNBC Headline Re Goldman Sachs Seeing Zero Percent Earnings Growth This Year, February 27, 2020

Screenshot of Graphic and Headline at CNBC, Thursday, February 27, 2020

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 28, 2020 ~

Going into Thursday morning, February 27, this was the situation on Wall Street:

  • The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, had already lost a total of more than 2,000 points in the prior three days of trading;
  • Stock futures were showing a big loss at the open of trading on Thursday;
  • News reports had proliferated overnight of the coronavirus spreading around the globe as well as a case in California suggesting it was now loose in the community.

For most folks, that would have been enough bad news to digest with their morning coffee. But it wasn’t for the folks at Goldman Sachs. At 8:12 a.m. yesterday morning, CNBC ran the above graphic and headline: “Goldman sees zero earnings growth for US companies this year because of coronavirus.”

Bank of America also apparently felt it was necessary to throw a little more gasoline on the smoldering stock heap. As 8:25 a.m. this headline appeared at CNBC: “The global economy is heading for its worst year since the financial crisis, Bank of America says.”

By 10:34 a.m., the Dow was down by more than 900 points. By the closing bell, the market had suffered its largest point loss in history, closing down 1,190.95 (4.42 percent) and bringing the four-day loss to more than 3,000 points. (On a percentage decline basis, October 19, 1987 is by far the worst single day in Dow history: the market lost 22.6 percent but back then that represented only 508 Dow points.)



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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 02-26-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:02:13 – Indices | S&P 500
00:10:09 – COVID-19 & The Market
00:12:30 – John Hopkins Virus Chart
00:17:00 – DJIA
00:18:22 – INQ | Futures
00:19:23 – STP
00:20:06 – LTP
00:24:46 – GOLD
00:25:45 – Money Talk Portfolio | Butterfly Portfolio
00:27:20 – IMAX
00:30:01 – Checking on the Markets
00:30:54 – Money Talk Portfolio
00:31:00 – Butterfly Portfolio
00:31:08 – Future is Now Portfolio
00:31:12 – Dividend Portfolio
00:31:27 – LTP
00:32:16 – STP
00:32:45 – Trading Techniques
00:36:38 – STP | Hedges
00:36:58 – SQQQ
00:47:32 – TSLA
00:51:29 – S&P
00:55:16 – FED | Bearish Market
00:58:07 – AAPL
01:00:41 – F
01:01:14 – COVID-19 Chart Update

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!





California Governor Rattles Stocks: A State with 40 Million Residents Has Just 200 Coronavirus Test Kits from the CDC

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Governor Gavin Newsom of California Holds Press Conference on Coronavirus, February 27, 2020

Governor Gavin Newsom of California

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 960 points this morning and then began to stage a strong rally. That rally unraveled on news that came out of the press conference held by California Governor Gavin Newsom.

The Governor, a Democrat, seemed to go out of his way to stress that his administration has been working closely with the Trump administration in addressing the coronavirus outbreak. He refused to criticize Trump when questioned by reporters.

What did become quite clear, however, as reporters drilled down to the situation on the ground in California, is that the state has taken in 800 repatriated Americans from countries with coronavirus outbreaks, has received thousands more passengers on domestic flights from suspect countries, while it currently has just 200 tests kits from the CDC to test for the virus. Newsom told reporters that “It’s simply inadequate to do justice to the kind of testing that is required to address this issue head on.”

In exchanges with reporters, the Governor indicated that California is not alone in terms of a gross inadequacy of test kits. He said other states have the same problem.

Even more alarming, the Governor made it clear that the protocol established by the CDC for when states could test a patient for the virus was so limited that it restricted his state and other states from testing a large number of patients.

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Why it’s “an orderly sell-off”

 

Why it’s “an orderly sell-off”

Courtesy of 

As of the close of trading last night, 98% of S&P 500 stocks have fallen below their 10-day moving averages. That’s as close to a washout as you get.

One week ago today we were making a new record high on the S&P 500. Seven days later and we’ve witnessed over $2 trillion in market cap erased from the board. Overseas it’s worse.

You’re hearing over and over again about how, despite the fact we’re at 4-month lows on the Dow Jones as of this morning, the sell-off thus far has been orderly, as opposed to panicky. And that’s actually, empirically true. Michael Batnick illustrates that “126 stocks, or a quarter of the index, are already more than 20% below their 52-week high. The parts always look worse than the sum, but this looks pretty tame compared to recent selloffs. The average S&P 500 stock is 16% off its 52-week high. (median 13%).”

It’s been swift, and it’s been deep, but we’re not quite at the point where it’s just indiscriminate blood-letting all over the place.

REITs, Utilities and Consumer Staples have acted defensively, their dividend yields becoming more prized as Treasury interest rates decline and money pours into safe havens.

Healthcare sector stocks have held up better than Technology, which is also rational – Tech is disproportionately affected by supply chains and demand across Asia whereas as patients don’t stop treatment because of economic concerns.

Consumer Discretionary has been hit harder than most sectors, and this is also rational – these were some of the most expensive stocks in the market and they rely upon people being out and about, spending money on non-essential purchases and experiences. The travel-related stocks are in this sector. The selling of these names makes sense and is entirely orderly. Airlines too, which are technically considered Industrials.

But why are things still orderly? Why hasn’t panic set in yet?

I think the main reason is that professionals are still more afraid of embarrassing themselves than they are of permanent losses. That’s today, things could be different weeks or


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Phil's Favorites

DARK TOWERS by David Enrich

 

In his best-selling book Dark Towers, David Enrich, finance editor at The New York Times, chronicles the complicated history of Deutsche Bank and its entanglement with Donald Trump. Reviewing Dark Towers, Roger Lowenstein writes, 

"Enrich’s most tantalizing nugget is that in the summer of 2016, Jared Kushner’s real estate company (which received lavish financing from Deutsche) was moving money to various Russians. A bank compliance officer filed a “suspicious activity report,” but the report was quashed and she was fired. The suggestion that maybe the money was payback for Russian campaign meddling isn’t one that Enrich can prove. Similarly, we will have to wait to see if Deutsch...



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Zero Hedge

NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Stree...



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Chart School

Dow, Three strikes and your out!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The Dow has topped out with major events, the current virus could be the third strike!

2001 - 9/11 Twin Towers
2007 - Bear Sterns
2020 (?) - C19 Virus


Chart explains all. Dow Jones Industrial's comparing market tops 2000, 2007 and 2020.


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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of ...

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ValueWalk

Cities With The Most 'New' And Tenured Homeowners

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Homeownership is a major investment. Not just financially, but when a person or family purchases a home, they’re investing years – if not decades – in that particular community. 55places wanted to find out which real estate markets are luring in new homebuyers, and which ones are dominated by owners that haven’t moved in decades. The study analyzed residency data in more than 300 US cities and revealed the top 10 cities with the most tenured homeowners – residents who’ve lived in and owned their home for more than 30 years – are sprinkled across ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.