Archive for the ‘Random Thoughts’ Category

Introduce Yourself

Go to the K1 Project Main Page

We’ve been kicking around the idea of having a place to post a small biography





Affiliation Made Easy

I’ve just updated our affiliate program.  Here’s the deal: refer someone, and get $25 when they subscribe.  To participate, just login to your Member Page and go to the Affiliates area. There, you can get code for text links or banners, which you can put on your blog, website, or on the side of your car.

We’d honestly rather have new members who are referred by current members, because you are smart people and you are probably friends with other smart people. So if you signup 4 new members, we’ll throw another $50 your way, and will keep doing so for every fourth paid referral. Again, this last perk is only for current members.





Site Changes

A few items you might not be aware of:

  • Our Links page has been updated to include some helpful information about options-friendly brokers. Hint: you won’t get far trading options with Scottrade (I know, I tried once).
  • You can edit your membership information, password, or subscription status at any time by going to your Member Page.
  • You can reach me (Jared) anytime I’m online through any of the major instant messaging services. See the Contact Us tab for more information.
  • For some of you, 2 posts a day and 250+ comments still isn’t enough, and you occasionally find yourself browsing through our archives, yearning for more. Well, today’s your lucky day: our archives now extend all the way back to January 2005! Note: if you come across any old posts that aren’t formatted properly, please let me know.




Confessions of a Phil’s Stock World Neophyte

[Ed: member gumbaphil submits:]

Confessions of a Neophyte “Phil Groupie”

“So, Cory old buddy, whadya get for your birthday???”

(I suppose I can use triple question marks…in keeping with the “Phil” lexicon)

“Well”, sez I, “I bought myself a subscription to PhilsStockWorld.com. Figgered I oughta find somethin’ interesting to do while recuperating from back surgery. Sitting is a might more comfortable than lying around in the bed doncha know; and I don’t care much for no soap operas on TV.”

“PhilStockWorld?…What’s that?

“Good question. I’ve been a member now for 12 trading days and it appears to be part Options trading education, part trading “hints” (he don’t give no “advice” since he’s not a registered securities “advisor”), and a whole batch o’ political and economic commentary”.

“That’s it? You just glue yourself to a computer monitor all day, and READ stuff?”

“No way man. I launch my Ameritrade Control Panel which is a poor man’s trading platform and do my best to mirror the stock option trades (hints) that Phil posts on his commentary Phorum. “

“And that’s not all either. I discovered that the second by second monitoring of some the more “risky” positions was an excellent way to test out this little heart rate monitor that my son gave me. So far, it sez I’ve registered about 99 million calories by just sittin’ at the keyboard.”

“So, ya made any money?

“Well…yes…and…no.”

“Whaddya mean yes AND no?

“Well, I FOLLOWED PHIL’S DISCIPLINED APPROACH on most trades, which is basically the 20% rule, and took my gains off the table. But I made the classic mistake of DENIAL on my oil PUTS and let my losses pile up, without directional protection, to the point that my losses on them may well exceed the gains on my closed positions.”

“HOWEVER, I still have some time on my side with those oil PUTS (Apr 21st) and I’m so d@&mn far underwater with them that I may let them ride and hope for a miracle.”

Here’s the 12 trading day breakdown:

Virtual Portfolio Balance $25,000  
CLOSED Positions (24)    
   Net Gain $3,870 15%
   Total position trades 24  
   Avg value per trade $600  
   Avg gain per trade $161  
   Avg


continue reading





Quick Note

We’re trying to improve the speed and reliability of the site, so the comment browser software is temporarily unavailable.  We’ll keep you posted.





New Comment Browser

Hi everyone. Today we’re introducing a new way to view comments on the members site – a special comment browser that you can download and run from your desktop. It works like this: simply follow this link, download the file available there, and then launch the application from your desktop. You’ll be presented with a login window – just use your normal login and password. From there the controls are pretty straightfoward.

This will save you from having to constantly refresh your browser window, and hopefully makes keeping up during the day a little bit easier. We’ve tested this version and it seems to work well, but if you encounter any bugs or problems, please do let us know.

Download

Many many thanks to member Stephane, who created and developed this application!





Poll

We really never expected to develop such a knowledgeable and convivial group of members so quickly. You all continue to surprise us, and as we grow we want to attact the kinds of members that will contribute to what we’re building here. So:

  1. As always, mentioning us to your friends and collegues is a great way to help build the community, and we do offer a generous affiliate bonus (get one month free for every 3 months your friend subscribes).




A Poll

No promises here - but we really would like to know what you'd like to see us add (if anything) in the future. If there's something we haven't thought of, just mention it in the comments.

Best,
Jared





Vista’s So-So Debut

In comments today we discussed how the launch of Microsoft’s Vista operating system was a "sell on the news" sort of event.

We already have our close calls off the table but we still have two longer plays and I came very close to closing out our April position on today’s dip but we already called a top there and sold the $30s for .95 against them, a call that, unfortunately for MSFT, seems to be on the money.

As with Apple’s IPhone announcement and, it seems, anything popular, there are always critics anxious to take them down.  Today it seems that it was time to complain about the fact that Vista doesn’t run certain downloadable games because they look like "malware," a form of virus that Vista’s beefed up security just says no to.

There was a noticeable lack of lines at the stores for the "Vista Release" as it turns out that most serious people who want it either got the beta months ago or simply downloaded it rather than sit outside Best Buy in freezing weather waiting for the store to open.  From the coverage given by the press, you would think Microsoft had remade Ishtar in 3-D!

We know Vista is already under attack in the EU, a rehash of that same old anti-trust suit that was such a yawner in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.  IBM, Nokia, Sun Microsystems, Adobe, Oracle, Corel, RealNetworks , Linspire, Opera and Red Hat are all getting along on this issue – something needs to be done about Microsoft! 

"Vista is the first step of Microsoft’s strategy to extend its market dominance to the Internet," the ECIS statement said.  It said Microsoft’s XAML markup language was "positioned to replace HTML," the industry standard for publishing documents on the Internet. XAML would be dependent on Windows, and discriminatory against systems such as Linux, the group said.

"The end result will be the continued absence of any real consumer choice, years of waiting for Microsoft to improve—or even debug—its monopoly products and of course high prices," said Thomas Vinje, lawyer for ECIS, in the statement.  

I can’t say I really disagree with them.  While it’s good to have a "universal operating system" it is not good for it to ruthlessly crush competition and stomp out innovation.  Speaking of innovation – check out…
continue reading





Weekend Ramblings – always a work in progress!

Here’s a great chart from MyMoneyBlog – he was using it to point out, correctly, how homeowners are more or less in denial and we may be a long way from the bottom of that market (think about where you are with your own home’s price) but I think it applies to almost every stock we buy! 

altext

This is a great example of how the 20% rule can save you a fortune as you are generally not mentally prepared to sell when you give up 20% of your trade’s profits but that 40-60% pullback range runs smack-dab into denial and by the time you pass there, fear and desperation have you in their clutches, followed closely by panic, selling for a loss and depression.  ONLY BY TAKING IT OFF THE TABLE "EARLY" ARE YOU LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE "THRILL" AND "EUPHORIA," those are fleeting experiences with a stock (especially an option)  and are quickly replaced on the downside. 

Cash out early, cash out often – cash is good!

===================================================

I know we’re all weighed in with our opinions re. the Cisco/Apple IPhone dispute.  You know I only work with the best, so I went straight to Harvard Law, where they gave me the skinny as to what constitues trademark infringementKey points discussed are:

  • The standard is "likelihood of confusion."

    • Is it likely to cause consumer confusion as to the source of those goods or as to the sponsorship or approval of such goods?
  • Factors under consideration will be:

    • (1) the strength of the mark
    • (2) the proximity of the goods
    • (3) the similarity of the marks
    • (4) evidence of actual confusion
    • (5) the similarity of marketing channels used
    • (6) the degree of caution exercised by the typical purchaser
    • (7) the defendant’s intent

Apple knows all about trademark law, one of the most famous cases in trademark history is Apple Computers vs. Apple Records, an issue that resurfaced as Apple moved into the music business.  The bottom line is they already had all the best lawyers on the planet on speed-dial so don’t go
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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>