Archive for the ‘Random Thoughts’ Category

Introduce Yourself

Go to the K1 Project Main Page

We’ve been kicking around the idea of having a place to post a small biography





Affiliation Made Easy

I’ve just updated our affiliate program.  Here’s the deal: refer someone, and get $25 when they subscribe.  To participate, just login to your Member Page and go to the Affiliates area. There, you can get code for text links or banners, which you can put on your blog, website, or on the side of your car.

We’d honestly rather have new members who are referred by current members, because you are smart people and you are probably friends with other smart people. So if you signup 4 new members, we’ll throw another $50 your way, and will keep doing so for every fourth paid referral. Again, this last perk is only for current members.





Site Changes

A few items you might not be aware of:

  • Our Links page has been updated to include some helpful information about options-friendly brokers. Hint: you won’t get far trading options with Scottrade (I know, I tried once).
  • You can edit your membership information, password, or subscription status at any time by going to your Member Page.
  • You can reach me (Jared) anytime I’m online through any of the major instant messaging services. See the Contact Us tab for more information.
  • For some of you, 2 posts a day and 250+ comments still isn’t enough, and you occasionally find yourself browsing through our archives, yearning for more. Well, today’s your lucky day: our archives now extend all the way back to January 2005! Note: if you come across any old posts that aren’t formatted properly, please let me know.




Confessions of a Phil’s Stock World Neophyte

[Ed: member gumbaphil submits:]

Confessions of a Neophyte “Phil Groupie”

“So, Cory old buddy, whadya get for your birthday???”

(I suppose I can use triple question marks…in keeping with the “Phil” lexicon)

“Well”, sez I, “I bought myself a subscription to PhilsStockWorld.com. Figgered I oughta find somethin’ interesting to do while recuperating from back surgery. Sitting is a might more comfortable than lying around in the bed doncha know; and I don’t care much for no soap operas on TV.”

“PhilStockWorld?…What’s that?

“Good question. I’ve been a member now for 12 trading days and it appears to be part Options trading education, part trading “hints” (he don’t give no “advice” since he’s not a registered securities “advisor”), and a whole batch o’ political and economic commentary”.

“That’s it? You just glue yourself to a computer monitor all day, and READ stuff?”

“No way man. I launch my Ameritrade Control Panel which is a poor man’s trading platform and do my best to mirror the stock option trades (hints) that Phil posts on his commentary Phorum. “

“And that’s not all either. I discovered that the second by second monitoring of some the more “risky” positions was an excellent way to test out this little heart rate monitor that my son gave me. So far, it sez I’ve registered about 99 million calories by just sittin’ at the keyboard.”

“So, ya made any money?

“Well…yes…and…no.”

“Whaddya mean yes AND no?

“Well, I FOLLOWED PHIL’S DISCIPLINED APPROACH on most trades, which is basically the 20% rule, and took my gains off the table. But I made the classic mistake of DENIAL on my oil PUTS and let my losses pile up, without directional protection, to the point that my losses on them may well exceed the gains on my closed positions.”

“HOWEVER, I still have some time on my side with those oil PUTS (Apr 21st) and I’m so d@&mn far underwater with them that I may let them ride and hope for a miracle.”

Here’s the 12 trading day breakdown:

Virtual Portfolio Balance $25,000  
CLOSED Positions (24)    
   Net Gain $3,870 15%
   Total position trades 24  
   Avg value per trade $600  
   Avg gain per trade $161  
   Avg


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Quick Note

We’re trying to improve the speed and reliability of the site, so the comment browser software is temporarily unavailable.  We’ll keep you posted.





New Comment Browser

Hi everyone. Today we’re introducing a new way to view comments on the members site – a special comment browser that you can download and run from your desktop. It works like this: simply follow this link, download the file available there, and then launch the application from your desktop. You’ll be presented with a login window – just use your normal login and password. From there the controls are pretty straightfoward.

This will save you from having to constantly refresh your browser window, and hopefully makes keeping up during the day a little bit easier. We’ve tested this version and it seems to work well, but if you encounter any bugs or problems, please do let us know.

Download

Many many thanks to member Stephane, who created and developed this application!





Poll

We really never expected to develop such a knowledgeable and convivial group of members so quickly. You all continue to surprise us, and as we grow we want to attact the kinds of members that will contribute to what we’re building here. So:

  1. As always, mentioning us to your friends and collegues is a great way to help build the community, and we do offer a generous affiliate bonus (get one month free for every 3 months your friend subscribes).




A Poll

No promises here - but we really would like to know what you'd like to see us add (if anything) in the future. If there's something we haven't thought of, just mention it in the comments.

Best,
Jared





Vista’s So-So Debut

In comments today we discussed how the launch of Microsoft’s Vista operating system was a "sell on the news" sort of event.

We already have our close calls off the table but we still have two longer plays and I came very close to closing out our April position on today’s dip but we already called a top there and sold the $30s for .95 against them, a call that, unfortunately for MSFT, seems to be on the money.

As with Apple’s IPhone announcement and, it seems, anything popular, there are always critics anxious to take them down.  Today it seems that it was time to complain about the fact that Vista doesn’t run certain downloadable games because they look like "malware," a form of virus that Vista’s beefed up security just says no to.

There was a noticeable lack of lines at the stores for the "Vista Release" as it turns out that most serious people who want it either got the beta months ago or simply downloaded it rather than sit outside Best Buy in freezing weather waiting for the store to open.  From the coverage given by the press, you would think Microsoft had remade Ishtar in 3-D!

We know Vista is already under attack in the EU, a rehash of that same old anti-trust suit that was such a yawner in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.  IBM, Nokia, Sun Microsystems, Adobe, Oracle, Corel, RealNetworks , Linspire, Opera and Red Hat are all getting along on this issue – something needs to be done about Microsoft! 

"Vista is the first step of Microsoft’s strategy to extend its market dominance to the Internet," the ECIS statement said.  It said Microsoft’s XAML markup language was "positioned to replace HTML," the industry standard for publishing documents on the Internet. XAML would be dependent on Windows, and discriminatory against systems such as Linux, the group said.

"The end result will be the continued absence of any real consumer choice, years of waiting for Microsoft to improve—or even debug—its monopoly products and of course high prices," said Thomas Vinje, lawyer for ECIS, in the statement.  

I can’t say I really disagree with them.  While it’s good to have a "universal operating system" it is not good for it to ruthlessly crush competition and stomp out innovation.  Speaking of innovation – check out…
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Weekend Ramblings – always a work in progress!

Here’s a great chart from MyMoneyBlog – he was using it to point out, correctly, how homeowners are more or less in denial and we may be a long way from the bottom of that market (think about where you are with your own home’s price) but I think it applies to almost every stock we buy! 

altext

This is a great example of how the 20% rule can save you a fortune as you are generally not mentally prepared to sell when you give up 20% of your trade’s profits but that 40-60% pullback range runs smack-dab into denial and by the time you pass there, fear and desperation have you in their clutches, followed closely by panic, selling for a loss and depression.  ONLY BY TAKING IT OFF THE TABLE "EARLY" ARE YOU LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE "THRILL" AND "EUPHORIA," those are fleeting experiences with a stock (especially an option)  and are quickly replaced on the downside. 

Cash out early, cash out often – cash is good!

===================================================

I know we’re all weighed in with our opinions re. the Cisco/Apple IPhone dispute.  You know I only work with the best, so I went straight to Harvard Law, where they gave me the skinny as to what constitues trademark infringementKey points discussed are:

  • The standard is "likelihood of confusion."

    • Is it likely to cause consumer confusion as to the source of those goods or as to the sponsorship or approval of such goods?
  • Factors under consideration will be:

    • (1) the strength of the mark
    • (2) the proximity of the goods
    • (3) the similarity of the marks
    • (4) evidence of actual confusion
    • (5) the similarity of marketing channels used
    • (6) the degree of caution exercised by the typical purchaser
    • (7) the defendant’s intent

Apple knows all about trademark law, one of the most famous cases in trademark history is Apple Computers vs. Apple Records, an issue that resurfaced as Apple moved into the music business.  The bottom line is they already had all the best lawyers on the planet on speed-dial so don’t go
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Zero Hedge

Yuan Extends Losses After China Macro Data Disappoints

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

China's yuan extended its early losses, testing down to the fix after headline economic data disappointed across the board.

  • Industrial Production rose just 5.6% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.8% prior)

  • Retail Sales rose just 7.5% YoY (below the +7.9% exp and down from +7.6% prior)

  • Fixed Asset Investments rose just 5.5% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.7% prior)

  • Property Investment rose just 10.5% YTD YoY (down from +1...



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Phil's Favorites

Black Hole Investing

 

Black Hole Investing

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.

Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy. ...



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The Technical Traders

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: ...



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Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To Kroger's Q2 With Mixed Takeaways

Courtesy of Benzinga

Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.

Q2 A Mix Of Positives And Negativ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Dow to 38,000 by 2022

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on? 

Of course who knows? But lets continue. 

The fundamentals behind this may be:

  • A good deal with China.
  • The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
  • The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
  • Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).

Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before O...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...



more from Kimble C.S.

Lee's Free Thinking

Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell the Real Story - Unspinning Wall Street™

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.

Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?

Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly

Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%

U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...



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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>