Archive for the ‘Weekend Review’ Category

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin.

FAS Money

We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update.

Last update P&L – $5499.00

IWM Money

Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update.

Last update P&L – $1998.00

$5KP Portfolio

This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K.

AAPL $50K Portfolio

What is there to say about this portfolio…. $132K of profit in a bit less than 3 months. Unbelievable and great job by lflan!

Last update P&L – $53,205.00

$25KP Portfolio

Comments about this portfolio can be found in Phil’s daily post. I have included only February trades as the list of trade is getting too long to fit in the article.

Last update P&L – (-$5447.00)





Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/8/2012

Here is a quick update of all our virtual portfolios performance over the last week. No detailed explanation this week as I outlined the strategies last week. As before, I will indicate the P&L at the end of last week and the list of trades and P&L at the end of this week.

AA Money

Big turnaround for AA Money as AA crossed over $9.00 during the week which boosted the profit of our short 9 puts. We cashed them for a 66% profit on Friday and sold a set of February puts and calls (9 strikes) in advance of AA’s earnings slated to be released on Monday.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – ($375.00)

Overall, a $715 turnaround….

FAS Money

A decent week for FAS Money – we bought back the FAS Jan 50 puts for an 88% profit during the run-up but had to roll the Jan 68 calls to the Jan 73 calls as FAS ran past 70. We also sold 2 sets of FAS 65 puts, one of which expired worthless on Friday. The XLF BCS is also in the money now.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – $3852.00

IWM Money

Very good week for IWM Money where we were positioned almost perfectly at the beginning of the week. We bought back all the sold puts on Tuesday for large wins (at least 75%). And we sold another put on Wednesday. The BCS is now well in the money. We will have to monitor the TNA calls as they are now ITM.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – $1683.00

A 24% improvement in the P&L!

FAS Strangle Experiment

Another decent week given the fact that we traded only 3 days as I didn’t like any setup on Thursday. We tried another tight strangle on Friday and got scared in the middle of the afternoon when FAS run up over $1.00, but were able to squeeze by at the end. Actually, if you had waited until the last minute, the call side turned profitable. For others, a small loss made up by the fact that the put side expired worthless. But another $0.96 of premium sold this week. No open position over the weekend.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – $8280.00

AAPL 50k

Not much to say but wow… Great job by lflan this week! I’ll…
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Weekend Wrap-Up

Another great week for our levels!

In last weekend’s wrap-up we were very pleased that the Dow stayed right in the lower end of our range, from 8,200 to 8,650.  This week we tested the upper end of the range from 8,650 to 9,100 and the two weeks, taken together make a great case for 8,650 being our mid-point and looking at the chart illustrates why the VIX is falling so fast – while it still may FEEL volatile during the day, we’re actually moving into a tighter range

Looking at a longer-range chart, we need to break over 9,100 early this week and get up to 9,500 to flatten the declining 50 dma so that’s what we’ll be looking for this expiration week.  It’s going to take some more stimulus to get there, we have a possible package for the auto industry and a Fed cut on Tuesday as well as possible action by global central banks.  There is an international fall-out to the Madoff scandal as EU banks have disclosed Billions in exposure to this ponzi scheme.  There are many articles on the scandal under "Phil’s Favorites" so I won’t go over it here but the repercussions are what we will be concerned about next week.

Monday started off with a bang as Obama discussed the New, New Deal – a $500Bn or so infrastructure project to keep Americans busy next year.  That was all the market needed to take off on Monday but we were more than a little skeptical as we’ve seen manic Monday’s before and they seldom follow through.  With all the stimulus flying around we discussed the need to learn the word "Quadrillion" as we’ll be using it soon enough the way the World governments are tossing money around.   We were totally incredulous that gold could still be under $750 so we kept on buying and that worked out very well this week!  As I said on Monday morning: "Trillion here, a Trillion there and before you know it we’re up to a thousand Trillion and you have to know what to call it" and THAT is why we like gold.

Nonetheless, I pointed out that the MSCI index was now trading at $1.17 per dollar in net assets, the lowest level since 1995 with 39% of the stocks trading below shareholder equity.  The economy may be really, really bad but we are
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PSW Contest – Closing Out the Very Merry Month of May

We had a fantastic May and made a lot of good picks and had tremendous returns on our members site.

We closed 263 positions during the month with a 186% average gain and a gain on capital of 299% – that's what we call a great month!

Our members already know what a great job we do and support the site.  Now I would like to ask those of you who read us for free to do me a favor:  This site is supported by advertising and advertising is supported by people like you coming to www.philstockworld.com and reading our site or signing up for the FREE EMail Subscription through FeedBurner, at the top right-hand corner of the free site.  Those of you who do subscribe already know that we never give out your names or Emails to anyone and we don't even ask you to join – I'm not asking you to join now – what I am asking for is for you to help us move this site up to the next level.

We will be closing to new subscribers shortly for the summer as we revamp the site, add some features and launch our first paid newsletter service.  Those of you who are FeedBurner subscribers will get a mailing when we reopen the site, as memberships will be limited, and will get an opportunity to receive the newsletter at a discount.  Right now though, I'm asking for your help in bringing some more people over to the free site so, if you enjoy reading my daily commentary and find the information useful, please do me the small favor of sending this invitation to subscribe along to 5 friends or family members (hopefully not mutually exclusive!) who you think would find this useful as well.

Free Email Subscription!

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

 

That's it, that's all I'm asking you to do in exchange for all this free content!  Please though, 5 people.  We want to get to a level of audience where we can negotiate our own ad rates and that's
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Virtual Portfolio Update

Hi everyone, the online spreadsheets have just been updated.  A downloadable version has also been posted for January.

Cheers,
Jared





Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

Wheee!  That was fun….  Can we do it again?

Unfortunately yes.  The market is either consolidating for a breakout or getting toppy, I’ll let you know which as soon as we figure it out but, as I said this morning – I don’t know and, apparently neither do investors who rushed in and out of stocks today like the audience in a Bugs Bunny joke.

Much like Bugs Bunny pulling the lever that said "Intermission" and causing everyone to run out and crush Elmer Fudd, we played today’s action pretty perfectly as we took our vacation on Friday long in the market and short on oil and today (until 1pm anyway) those were both right on.

The markets were indeed off to a fine start this morning and punched through record highs but pulled away from a fairly bearish Fed report that indicated the Governors aren’t as wild about the economy as investors are but I think people are taking the minutes way out of context and the sell-off was unwarranted, even though I expected it to happen.

We were very comfortable with our choices today as the market failed us at pretty much all of our targets so we got in and out of positions with pretty good timing:

Don’t blame oil for this one, they did their best by dropping and dropping and then dropping some more finishing the day way down at $58.32 below my $58.71 wish-list target!  Next stop may be $57.50 as the roaches scramble to leave the trap.

This is…
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Inside Scoop on the Apple IPhone and Other Patents!

 

 

The IPhone is coming, the IPhone is coming, the IPhone is coming!  …On Monday???

 

 

  ipod phone 

Well, according to Gizmodo who, I am certain, are just looking for publicity.  This is starting to remind me of when Dean Kamen told us that "IT" would revolutionize transportation, reshape cities, resolve the energy crisis etc. and everyone speculated on everything "IT" could possibly be, from properly recounting the Florida ballots to cold fusion but, in the end, it turned out to be a scooter that very rich people can play polo on!

While I don't think the IPhone will turn out to be a Segway-sized disappointment, I'm very concerned that I won't be able to play polo on it and, with expectations running as high as they are it had better at least cure cancer!

One cool thing that is in the works from Apple is a patent they filed earlier in the year to embed "microscopic image sensors" in an LCD screen, effecively turning your monitor or, more importantly, your phone's screen, into a camera – allowing for true face-to-face communications!

 

And have you ever wondered why Apple insists on keeping that huge amount of space at the bottom half of their laptops?  Well here's the embedded docking station they filed a patent on!

Now if that were a cell-capable IPod you could get web access anywhere in the world….  Interesting! 

According to Kevin Rose, of Digg, the IPhone will have the following features:

  • January launch on "all" providers, both CDMA and GSM
  • Extremely small form factor
  • Two battery design (with single charger) — one for playing music, the other for phone functions
  • Flash memory: 4GB for $249, 8GB for $449
  • "Slide-out keyboard"
  • Possibly touchscreen


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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up

I said in the morning that “markets will react (or overreact) to whatever jobs number we get” and they certainly did both!

The Dow flew up to 12,300 in the first 15 minutes, dove to 12,250 in the next, flew all the way up to 12,331 just an hour later and finished fairly well at 12,307 but they got me today with that early move!

It took a while for the market to come around to my Goldilocks view of the jobs report but the other indices all made similar moves eventually except the SOX and the Transports, who missed our marks.  This does leave me neutral towards the markets going into Monday.

Oil fell again and we had a great time with puts for the third day in a row, our Valero Group mainly gave us a nice spike at the open and drifted down all day, despite a desperate and very fake pump job on oil earlier in the day.  At one point oil was up over $1 and we took that time to grab more puts!

The stake in the heart for oil came as the dollar bounced off our 82.50 targetand was propelled 1% higher by comments made by Hank Paulson on CNBC at mid-day.  After that, the drop was just a matter of time!

Crude did hold $62.03, so we are not out of the woods yet but it was another interesting day at the NYMEX as losses mounted across the board.  The February contract (active a week from today) had huge volume but still dropped to $63.09, just $1.06 over the current month contract!  This is not good for traders who are in the red and were hoping to roll into the next month – unless of course there are people who are willing to let them store their oil very cheaply as they pray for a very late (or very, very early) hurricane…

Now the November contracts, at $67.95, have fallen below the October contracts ($68.08) and both are higher than the Decembers, which dropped to $67.73.  The September contracts, at $67.35 are still below the August contract price ($67.39).  Oh the horror!

Since everyone on the planet was short the dollar this week (except us, of course) there could be a bit of a short squeeze next week, depending on how the China trip goes of course.   Gold moved in tandem with the dollar, losing 1%
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Forgotten Trades

Arnie made a comment the other day that we all have very short trading time-frames and it really hurt my feelings (as you all know, I’m the shy, sensitive type).

I am not a day trader!  I am not adverse to taking profits during the day – but that does not make me a day trader…

I take a lot of long positions but, as I have mentioned often before, I generally tend to stop worrying about them once they make over 20% as I just set my stop (-20% of the profits) and forget about them.  Tracking a bunch of Jan ’09 leaps every week would make for a very dull column!

This column is generally about short-term options, not stocks or leaps, which are very, very dull but I am very, very good at picking those – probably better than I am at close options.  As I always say, the close options are for play money while we watch our real plays take shape! 

The last time I touched base with these picks was August 3rd so I think we can indulge ourselves once a quarter to see how I’m doing.  I am listing them all, the good, the bad and the ugly because I don’t want you to think I’m cherry picking (as embarrassing as some of these picks are!).

I’m sorry that the original picks are all buried at the old blogspot account (and I’m in no mood to dig them out of that mess) but we’ll fix it all on the new site (I hope!).  I apologize for not having all the exact start dates but if I didn’t find them in August, I’ll never find them now!

From 8/3 picks on you’ll notice a different format as I’m trying to bring this fully up to date.

==================================

Sometimes it’s nice to just buy something and walk away for a while… AAPL Jan $55s seemed expensive at $9.40 on 6/20 but we held through the dip by selling the July $60s and collecting $2.50, lowering our base to $6.90.  They currently trade at $31.50 (up 357%).

I got tired of waiting for ADM Jan $35 puts (9/18 – $1.35) as they were the protective side of a spread but I should have let them play out, now $2 (up 48%).

I always play the Boeing Buddies (TM) but I hate to sound like a…
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Weekly Wrap-Up

What a way to end the week!

Dow and S&P records going into the weekend – now that’s investor confidence!  Minor pullbacks from the other indices but all well within our comfort levels, including the transports who came within 5 points of my target of 2,675 (despite the decline in oil) but closed at a comfortable 2,691.

You’ve got to love it when every single index we track hits our predictions on the nose!

It’s been a good week for predictions in general – in comments at 9:23 I recommended a day trade on the Dow: “I’m going to be checking out the DIA $122 and $123 calls if the market takes a nice dip.  I’m looking for a bounce at $122.70.”

Here’s the chart, bottoming at $122.67 at 9:39!  Needless to say that trade went very well with the DIA $122s coming in at .75 and finishing at $1.20 (up 60%) and the $123s coming in at .10 and giving us a quarter at the close (up 150%).

But that was not our best trade of the day!  That hardly rates a mention compared to the ICE trades!

We had a great session Thursday deciding how to take advantage of the NMX IPO and we decided that the ICEwould be a beneficiary and we picked up the Dec $85s for $12.30.  They finished the day at $17 (up 38%) but I lost a dollar if it going out and in on an early dip so I took half off the table at $20 (up 63%).

At 10:01 I decided to make a $1.50 offer on the $95s and by 10:04 it got away from me but filled at $1.20 just 10 minutes later.  We exited that one at 11:30 for $9 - 650% in one hour!  That’s a pretty good annual rate of return folks!  It also turned out to be the EXACT top of the day so I’m very, very proud of myself (pat, pat).

Congrats to everyone who played along at home – now that the earnings nonsense is over, we can concentrate on situational trades like this on the pro site.

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stocks and shares cartoons, stocks and shares cartoon, stocks and shares picture, stocks and shares pictures, stocks and shares image, stocks and shares images, stocks and shares illustration, stocks and shares illustrations 

On the whole it was in incredible week, we even started making some money on oil puts again!

Relentless doubling down strained my position limit and left me unable to add positions to take advantage of Thursday’s drop but I was happy…
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Phil's Favorites

How The Patient Investor Sees the World More Clearly

 

How The Patient Investor Sees the World More Clearly

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism 

?One of my favorite things to think about in investing is the theoretical investor who slept through 1987. We all know about “Black Monday”, the crash of 1987, when stocks fell 23% in one day. It was terrifying. But the craziest thing about 1987 is that the S&P 500 had a total return of 5.81% that year. The stock market was positive in a year that is known for being a terrifying crash! So, if you had checked your portfolio on January 1, 1987 and then slept through the entire year and woken on December 31, you would have looked at your portfolio and said “huh, pretty slow year in the markets, but not bad!”

...

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Chart School

Silver is cheap vs Gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once!

Chart up to April 2017



As of the 20th of March 2019 the US Federal Reserve has switched to dovish...

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Zero Hedge

"Fed Returns To The Punchbowl": The Biggest Surprises In Today's Fed Decision

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Fed is returning to the punchbowl.

That's how Bank of America summarized today's second consecutive dovish surprise by the FOMC regarding rates and balance sheet policy. As we noted earlier, there were two major developments in today's FOMC decision:

  1. the dots dropped substantially to show no further hikes this year and only one hike in 2020. This means that the increasingly "patient" Fed is signaling that policy will remain accommodative relative to the long-run rate expectation.
  2. the balance sheet unwind will start in May and be completed by the end of September....


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ValueWalk

Jamie Dimon On How JPMorgan Is Making The Planet A Great Place [Full CNBC Interview]

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

CNBC Transcript: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and American University President Sylvia Mathews Burwell Speak with CNBC’s Kayla Tausche Today

WHEN: Today, Wednesday, March 20, 2019

WHERE: CNBC’s “The Exchange

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon American University President & Former Obama Health...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Sending Warning Sign To Broad Markets Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The financial / banking sector is often a good barometer of the economy and broader stock market.

So when the Bank Index (BKX) began to lag late last summer, it was an early warning sign for investors.

Looking at the chart below, we can see that the banks spilled lower with the December correction. That final swoon lower was set up by a bearish reversal candlestick (1).

Well, the recent rally has brought stocks back up to the scene of that crime! That area is marked by strong horizontal resistance.

Are banks creating a similar reversal ...



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Insider Scoop

Sage's First-Of-Its-Kind Postpartum Depression Drug Clears FDA Hurdle: What You Need to Know

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of mid-cap biotech SAGE Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: SAGE), which focuses on therapies for central nervous system disorders, were trading higher Wednesday.

What Happened

Sage ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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