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  1. options_alpha

    Yodi; Agree. MSFT trade would be $2500 for the calls and therefore net $9100 but still potential for  $10,900 gain.  I'm a glass half filled guy so I see a potential loss of $14,000.  Not my type of trade.  

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

This is so good! 

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

TGIF – Quad Witching Today, Window Dressing Next Week

China turned around this morning.  

It's funny because everyone thinks they are "winning" the trade war.  The Chinese Government is planning to cut tariffs on imports to their favored trading partners, which we assume will no longer include the US.  This will disadvantage US exporters to China and encourage Chinese firms and consumers to buy goods and services from other trading partners but it's also a nice tax break so it's boosting the Shanghai this morning, up 2.5% for the day at the close.  

Other than that, the news has been very quiet and we're expecting to drift along into the close today as it's a Quad Witching Day in which quarterly options and futures contracts expire (there are 4 kinds), which is often punchuated by high-volume (what is that?) moves and yesterday was already a busy day on SPY as we punched in a new high at 2,945 and we would have liked to short 2,950 but we'll take a cross below 2,940 on /ES to short that with tight stops:

Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Sep 20, 2018 292.64 293.94 291.24 293.58 293.58 100,288,900

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Why tech giants have little to lose (and lots to win) from new EU copyright law


Why tech giants have little to lose (and lots to win) from new EU copyright law

File 20180919 158243 roiwue.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Copyright, and copyright laws, will not always match expectations. inkninja, CC BY

Courtesy of Maurizio Borghi, Bournemouth University

The new European Union Copyright Directive, passed recently by the European parliament after a vociferous campaign both for and against, has been described by its advocates as Europe striking a blow against US tech giants in the battle for control of copyrighted content online. This is painted as a battle about who pays for creative works, culture, and the role and workings of a free press in a world where these “commodities” are exchanged freely on social media and other platforms controlled by giants such as Google and Facebook.

The sense of this battle is found in two articles from the text of the new directive. Article 11 introduces the “press publishers’ right”, also called the “link tax”. This permits publishing groups such as newspapers and other media to charge online content sharing service providers and platforms – most obviously, Google, Facebook and Twitter – a fee for a licence to link to their content. Article 13 makes online content sharing service providers responsible for the copyright content uploaded by users. Large platforms must implement filters to monitor copyright infringements and obtain licences from music, film and television rights-holders for the use of copyright content where it appears on their services – YouTube and Instagram, for example. This has led to claims that the directive would effectively ban memes, because automated checking of uploads would identify them only as copyright material, rather than allowable “fair use” or “parody”.

Unsurprisingly, publishers and copyright industries across Europe have saluted the new law as a great victory of European culture and free press against the greedy American titans. But it is not this simple.

First-mover advantage

When companies like Google and Facebook started their ascent as global players in the mid-2000s, they benefited from a generally favourable legislative framework, made of legislative vacuum and liberal legislation. Thanks to the flexible contours of the “safe harbour” provisions for internet hosting services – which essentially immunises them from any liability…
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Here’s how Trump-era politics are affecting worker morale – and what managers can do about it


Here's how Trump-era politics are affecting worker morale – and what managers can do about it

File 20180918 158246 13qb0yn.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Politics are creating divides in the office. fizkes/

Courtesy of Wayne Hochwarter, Florida State University

Pundits are projecting this year’s midterm elections to be nasty, polarizing and “epic.”

They’re also expected to stress a lot of Americans out in every part of their lives. And that includes at the office.

I recently conducted a study on a broad range of workplace issues, including how the stress of our increasingly divisive politics is affecting worker health, productivity and relationships with colleagues. I also wondered: Is there anything company managers can do about it?

Growing divisiveness

Political divisiveness in America is hardly new.

Historians have traced its history all the way back to the founding founders. But politics seem to be dividing Americans more and more.

In a recent article in Scientific American, psychologists Cameron Brick and Sander van der Linden explained that individuals of different political ideologies “not only disagree on policy issues, they are also increasingly unwilling to live near each other, be friends, or get married to members of the other group.”

Consequences include marital stress, divorce, family separations and even sharp divides over national pastimes like football.

There is a bright side – if you’re a therapist and benefiting from an uptick in business perhaps as the result of a malady described as “Trump Anxiety Disorder.”

Politics at work

I wanted to see just how bad it’s getting in the workplace.

My field study, conducted this past summer and part of a larger project I intend to have peer-reviewed and published on the anxiety-inducing properties of political conflict, conjoins my interests in the areas of incivility, entitlement, worker self-serving behavior and bullying.

I asked 550 full-time workers whose email addresses I obtained through my undergraduate students to react to hundreds of statements about a wide variety of work issues, from abusive bosses and workplace relationships to incivility and health. I also asked about the…
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Was Brexit really caused by austerity? Here’s why we’re not convinced


Was Brexit really caused by austerity? Here's why we're not convinced

File 20180831 195331 1j3c9hc.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Tally ho! Thitisan

Courtesy of Lawrence McKay, University of Manchester and Jack Bailey, University of Manchester

Like most bad dramas, keeping up with every development in the Brexit saga is difficult. Nevertheless you may have seen recent reports in the media, including in The Conversation, that “austerity caused Brexit”. But we doubt that a clear answer can come from a look at economics alone.

The idea that austerity swayed voters for Brexit is based on a paper by Thiemo Fetzer, an associate professor of economics at the University of Warwick. His paper claims to show that the welfare cuts under David Cameron’s coalition government of 2010-15 had a decisive impact on the UK’s decision to leave the EU. Fetzer argues that material economic changes encouraged grievances with the political system and that this led many to support first UKIP and then Brexit. By his calculations, austerity was responsible for as much as a ten percentage point swing in favour of Leave – thus tipping the outcome.

It’s easy to understand why these findings were so popular. For many, austerity confirms their suspicion that the government does not care about the poor and is willing to see them go to hell in a handcart, all for the promise of lower taxes. If austerity is also the cause of Brexit, these people see it as more evidence that their belief that the government doesn’t care is correct.

Election dissection

We are sceptical that austerity increased Leave’s vote by ten percentage points. Crucially, Fetzer mainly uses UKIP support in the years leading up to the 2016 referendum as a proxy for public support for leaving the EU. His ten-point claim comes from testing the effect of austerity on UKIP’s vote share in the local elections that took place each year since 2010.

But the study also includes estimates of the austerity effect on UKIP’s vote share at the 2014 European parliament elections and the general election of 2015. Importantly, these are much lower. Using the European elections, Fetzer finds that austerity boosted the Leave vote somewhere in the region of two…
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Relaxed environmental regulations heighten risk during natural disasters


Relaxed environmental regulations heighten risk during natural disasters

File 20180920 10511 nllgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Environmental regulations generally improve communities’ preparedness and resilience during disasters. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Courtesy of Brian J. Gerber, Arizona State University and Melanie Gall, Arizona State University

Heavy rains following Hurricane Florence have raised concerns over the release of toxic materials. Ash from coal-fired power plants stored at a landfill has spilled out and the state of North Carolina has said dozens of sites have released hog waste or are at risk of doing so.

These types of events not only highlight the potential of harm to humans and the environment due to this type of uncontrolled pollution, but also the linkage between environmental regulations and the risks communities face when natural disasters occur.

The decisions communities make when managing a range of hazards, including industrial waste siting, are a key factor in a community’s vulnerability during a disaster – a dynamic we’ve seen play out in many ways in our work in disaster policy and management. Such choices also help explain why disaster damage is so costly and disaster recovery so complex.

Pollution and disaster flooding

Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Florence caused the Neuse River to flood and erode three soil-capped coal ash landfills near Goldsboro, North Carolina. At another coal ash landfill near Wilmington, heavy rains exposed its toxic contents, which include lead, arsenic and mercury, washing them into a nearby lake that drains into the Cape Fear River. Duke Energy, operator of the landfill and nearby power plant, estimates about 2,000 cubic yards escaped into the lake but claims contaminated storm waters did not make it into the river.

The problem of managing coal ash storage is a useful illustration of how environmental protection choices, good or bad, affect the degree of community vulnerability during a disaster.

Floodwaters surround homes and a power station in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence in Newport, N.C. AP Photo/Tom Copeland

The North Carolina legislature has a recent history of explicit denial of climate change. A bill passed in
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Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Wow, even conservatives are counting tariffs as taxes now:

    President Trump recently announced plans to impose a 10 percent tax on $200 billion of imports from China effective September 24, escalating to 25 percent effective January 1, 2019. When added to tariffs that have already been implemented, total trade taxes imposed on American consumers and businesses via unilateral executive action exceed all the taxes included in President Obama’s Affordable Care Act (ACA).

How many Americans really misuse opioids? Why scientists still aren’t sure


How many Americans really misuse opioids? Why scientists still aren't sure

File 20180918 158225 hnfyl1.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Defining opioids. Darwin Brandis/

Courtesy of Joseph Palamar, New York University Langone Medical Center

With rates of prescription opioid use disorder and opioid-involved overdose deaths on the rise, the U.S. opioid crisis appears to be continuing unabated.

Data on overdose and death are pretty reliable. But there’s still much that’s unknown about opioid misuse that doesn’t lead to an adverse outcome such as overdose.

Drug surveys are reseachers’ main method of collecting data on opioid misuse. I’ve been in drug survey research for almost two decades, but in recent years I’ve learned that collecting accurate data on opioid misuse in particular is difficult. Why? Because many people underreport misuse, while others unintentionally overreport misuse.

Colleagues have been asking me how to ask about opioid misuse on surveys. I’m finding that there’s no easy answer. But one thing I’ve learned in my research is that many people may misunderstand the basics about opioids, preventing researchers like myself from understanding the full scope of the epidemic.

Medical use and misuse

Drug surveys are already difficult to conduct, as many people lie about use. For example, some people deny use to appear more socially desirable, and others simply try to finish the survey quickly without really reading it. But opioid surveys are especially challenging.

A friend of mine recently took my drug survey. She texted me the next day, saying she believed she incorrectly answered my opioid questions. Even though my survey asked only about using to get high or using without a prescription, she admittedly didn’t read the directions and reported misuse of dilaudid, a pain medication.

Situations like this lead some researchers to distrust reportedly high rates of opioid misuse. For example, a few years ago, my colleagues and I estimated that 12 percent of high school seniors have ever misused prescription opioids. However, some of my reports focusing on such national data have (perhaps rightfully) been questioned, but we are limited by what people report.

On surveys, opioid misuse is sometimes defined as using without one’s doctor telling you…
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Ending austerity: why public spending is key to building a stable and fair economy


Ending austerity: why public spending is key to building a stable and fair economy

File 20180918 158219 1llhyx0.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

John Gomez / Shutterstock

Courtesy of John Weeks, SOAS, University of London

The term “fiscal” comes from the Latin for “purse”. When it comes to fiscal policy – how the government manages the country’s budget – a lot of people wrongly compare the country’s purse, and how it’s managed, with that of an individual or household.

The government’s purse is like no other. Managed correctly, it can end austerity and make the economy both stable and fair.

The UK economy initially showed a strong recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. It began in late 2009 and continued into 2010. Then, eight years of austerity policies by Conservative governments ended the recovery and brought recession, stagnation and growing poverty. Excuses offered by Conservative politicians, from world market instability to Brexit anxieties, fail to conceal the real cause of this dismal post-crash economic performance.

The Conservative government suffers from “deficit fetishism” – where all public policy is held captive to hitting a fiscal balance of zero (or going into surplus) by means of expenditure cuts. But the huge cuts to public spending have repeatedly failed to achieve a balanced budget. Nevertheless, much of the British public remains gripped by the dysfunctional fiscal goal of deficit reduction.

Britain’s woeful recovery from the financial crisis. IFS

Basic problems

A basic problem with budget balancing in all its versions is the improbability of achieving it. Take the example of a deficit, a negative budget balance, and a chancellor committed to reducing the deficit quickly. This chancellor believes the way to reduce the deficit is to increase taxes or reduce spending. Conservative chancellors since 2010 have preferred spending cuts.

But spending cuts reduce the demand for goods and services bought by the public sector, such as medicines and medical equipment. As a result the companies that supply these goods and services reduce the number of people they hire and lower their investment. These declines result in a fall in corporate and…
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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Trading Webinar - 09-20-18


The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Trading Webinar - 09-20-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:01:47 Checking on the Markets
00:04:25 DJIA
00:06:45 OOP
00:17:43 Shanghai Stocks
00:22:19 Population
00:44:27 AEIS
00:57:13 WPM
01:04:37 Checking the Portfolios
01:11:08 DIS
01:15:15 Butterfly portfolio
01:20:44 Trade Ideas
01:26:55 Short Term Portfolio
01:31:23 KHC
01:37:07 WHR
01:43:02 Trade Strategies


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Markets Picking Up Steam?

By CapitalTrading. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We are going to keep this week’s letter short and to the point. We are sick and tired of the political charade that is ongoing in DC with the tariffs and the SC vote. For us general Americans deserve better and we will just leave it at that. As for the markets, US Treasury yields have risen above the 3% threshold and in no doubt in further anticipation of next week’s FOMC 25bp hike. We aren’t a big fan of the FEDs slow drip process, we would rather they just hike the FED FUNDs above the 10yr rate and be done with it. With the ECB and BOJ firmly entrenched in continuing QE operations, the world will certainly absorb a relatively hawkish FED. Further evidence is mounting that the FED itself has becom...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper breaking out after large decline, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


Doc Copper over the past few months has been hit hard, as sellers drove it down nearly 25%.

This decline brought it to the price point (2), where four different support lines came into play, which looks like a support cluster. As the decline was taking place, momentum was hitting oversold levels.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– This week Doc Copper is experiencing its strongest rally this year, as it breaks above steep falling resistance.

Should Doc Copper contin...

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Zero Hedge

Walmart Warns It Will Be Forced To Raise Prices Due To Trade War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One of the reasons why the US economic response to Trump's trade war with China had been lukewarm at best, is that US consumers had not been subject to any of the inflationary consequences of the escalating tariffs between Washington and Beijing. That, however, is about to change: overnight Walmart issued a warning in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that it may have to raise prices due to tariffs on Chinese imports, CNN Money reported.

"The immediate impact will be to raise prices on consumers and tax American business and ...

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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Bullish On Amazon's New Automated Stores

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AMZN Stitch Fix Falls After Piper Jaffray Downgrade; Analyst Says 'Smallest Hint Of Pressure' Could Threaten Valuation ... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania


Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Slow and steady drip up all this past week in a very quiet news environment.  A gap down top open the day Tuesday (which was recovered quickly) and a gap up Thursday (which held) were the highlights!

The latest on TRADE WARS!(tm):

Tuesday, news hit that China vowed to retaliate and plans to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S. for Washington’s noncompliance with a ruling in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties, Reuters reported. That’s part of a dispute that goes back to 2013.

“Trade wars are certainly a concern, but I don’t know that they’re a one...

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Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding


Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and "What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’?" ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford and ...

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Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...

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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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