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Fallback Friday – US Passes China to Become Most Infected Nation

Why the COVID-19 death rate varies dramatically from country to ...85,996!  

That's how many infections there are in the US as of 6:49 this morning and China has 81,897 so we blew right past them – even though we had 3 more months to prepare than China did and we were certainly not taken by surprise – other than our President, who asked us "Who could have seen this coming?"  

It was way back on January 22nd when we had the first US case of the coronavirus.  I noted it in our Morning Report saying:

One thing that's distracting everybody at the moment is the Chinese virus scare, with 50% more cases today than there were yesterday (now 470) so no, it's not at all under control.   The US case that panicked our markets yesterday was from a guy who was in China recently and it does seem to be contained (so far). 

In drugstores and at airports, and on the online marketplaces increasingly at the heart of Chinese commerce, fear and confusion manifested themselves in shortages or long lines for suddenly scarce products promising protection from the deadly but still largely mysterious respiratory disease.  Surgical masks flew off shelves, travelers canceled plans and rumors flooded social media.   Drug makers are doing well, travel stocks are doing poorly.  

The very next day, we initiated our first virus hedge because that is what you are supposed to do when you come across economic uncertainty and want to protect your portfolios.  What we didn't count on, however, is that two months later, the US would still be totally unprepared for its own viral epidemic or that our President would spend more time in denial than in meetings about controlling the virus.  Rather than lead us through this crisis, Trump made 33 false claims about the virus in the
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Federally Funded Thursday: “We are Not Going to Run Out of Ammunition” – Powell

Fed's balance sheet rockets above previous high in one week$4.5 TRILLION! 

That's how much more lending power the Fed just opened up.  That's on top of the $4.66Tn they arlready doled out – $1Tn of it in the past month alone…  The Fed spent $4Tn buying the first recovery so what's another $4.5Tn to buy the next one?  That was a trick question as the answer is "A good start! 

Pat Toomey (R) of Pennsylvania told Bloomberg yesterday that ANOTHER $4.5Tn is waiting in the wings.  Who knew we had this much money sitting around?  Certainly not the 700,000 Americans Trump pulled off Food Stamps because he said we couldn't afford $4.2Bn to feed starving children.  Yet if one Octogenarian in the Senate gets a virus – suddenly $4,500Bn is available to ease the pain.

"Burn in Hell" is not something you usually hear in a Financial Newsletter but sometimes it's hard to find nicer ways to express yourself….

We still need the House to confirm the bill but let's keep in mind this is only our FIRST bailout package.  If things drag on, there will cerainly be others and the way our Government is responding, things are certainly going to drag on.  If you wonder what FEMA is doing during this emergency, New York, Hawaii and North Carolina  have issued an urgent request to FEMA for emergency mortuary assistance as deaths mount across the states.

New York City has 17,856 cases of the virus (worst city on Earth) and over 200 people have died in the past week, which has overwhelmed the city's morges and they are currently keeping the dead outside in makeshift tents.  As usual, states turn to FEMA to clean up the mess and soon we'll be hearing all the stories of families screaming about misplaced bodies, etc.  This is, of course, not uprecedented:

What, too soon?

CBS (VIAC) will be putting Stephen Colbert back on the air on Monday, apparently from his house but they plan on doing a full show with interviews (from…
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Comment by jeffdoc

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  1. jeffdoc

    Can Italy still be number 2 on this list after we are done here? https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/best-healthcare-in-the-world/?fbclid=IwAR1rOjaLbpMJXiknzH142lkX4AWtUEZ9NbYzBsN9tb_fY3qYGWX5OChYykU







Comment by jeffdoc

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  1. jeffdoc

    Can Italy still be number 2 on this list after we are done here? https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/best-healthcare-in-the-world/?fbclid=IwAR1rOjaLbpMJXiknzH142lkX4AWtUEZ9NbYzBsN9tb_fY3qYGWX5OChYykU







Which Way Wednesday – Is $6Tn Not Enough to Boost the Markets?

Image result for money printing animated gif$6,000,000,000,000!  

That's right, Larry Kudlow announced this morning that the US Government's stimulus package "will come to roughly $6 Trillion."  That's in the form of $2Tn of direct CASH!!! to businesses and individuals and $4Tn from the Federal Reserve or, in other words, given to the Banksters.  If they just gave the $6Tn directly to our 300M US Citizens, that would be $20,000 for every man, woman and child or about $70,000 per household.  I think that would do a Hell of a lot more to stimulate the economy than giving it to Goldman Sachs, don't you?

NONETHELESS, $6Tn is about 1/3 of our entire GDP – the entire output of the United States over a 4-month period and, so far, we're in week 2 of the virus shutdown and, so far, there's no evidence that economic activity is down more than 30% – or about $500Bn for the month.  Granted the virus may be around for longer then 4 months but, as I pointed out yesterday – it's not likely to kill more people than cancer (6M) or even Aids (1M) and, horrible though it is – life will, eventually, go on regardless.

Another reason the Futures dropped 600 points this morning (still green though) is our beloved leader is still sticking to his idiocy of ending the quarantine by Easter (April 12th) despite every expert, including his own, saying that it's a terrible idea to set arbitrary dates this early in the process and, of course, China's quarantine lasted 50 days – how are we going to be done in less than 30 days?  

Also this morning, because our President is an idiot, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned the rest of the World that the United States could become the new hub for the viral outbreak as we are THE WORST country on the planet Earth in terms of preparedness, prevention and containment.  Chad looks organized compared to us – CHAD!  

“This cure is worse than the problem,” Trump said. “In my opinion, more people are going to die if we allow this to continue.”


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  1. biodieselchris

    not that stock chart reading is the least bit useful but today's green hammer looks a lot like March 4th's







Comment by biodieselchris

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  1. biodieselchris

    not that stock chart reading is the least bit useful but today's green hammer looks a lot like March 4th's







PhilStockWorld March Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gifWhat a crazy fist quarter it has been!

We cashed out our last set of winning portfolios back in September, as I did not trust the market into Q4 but the market kept going higher so we had too much FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and we started playing again in October – albeit with much smaller amounts.  Our Long-Term/Short-Term paired portfolios had hit $2.6M after starting at $500,000/100,000 on Jan 2nd, 2016 and it was becomming too difficut to hedge so I said at the time:

Hedging a $1.7M LTP would be very expensive and what if next time we didn't time the turn in the STP and instead blew the turn and lost money there as well as the LTP.  Then we'd be back to $2M and needing to make 30% to get back to $2.6M and what if it's hard to make money next year or what if we have another crash and the market is down 40% – it's just too much to risk vs. putting $2.6M safely on the sidelines and simply looking for new opportunities.

Well, here we are, at the bottom of that 40% sell-off and, as expected, we're having to pull a bit more cash off the sidelines as some of our new portfolios got crushed.  This is going to be an odd review because we made more than one adjustment in the past two weeks on some portfolios and I'll do my best to consolidate all the moves here.  The bottom line is we got a lot more aggressive around March expirations (20th) and yesterday (23rd), as the market hit rock bottom, we went gung-ho bullish in our LTP and Butterfly Portfolios in anticipation of a massive Congressional Bail-Out Package.  

Hopefully, that provides a catalyst to form a floor at the 40% off line and we can consolidate between here and the 20% off (the top) lines, which is where the market should be in the first place – the rest was just fluff – that's why we cashed out in September – at S&P 3,000!  

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP) (3/19):  $282,168 is up 182% so…
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Comment by 1020

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  1. 1020

    Shmuck….







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Going Down With The Ship: After Raging At Moody's For Downgrade To Deep Junk, Masa Son Pledges 40% Of SoftBank Stake To Lenders

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last October, in the aftermath of the WeWork and Uber fiasco, we asked if SoftBank, that chronic seed (and not so seed) investor in cash-incinerating zerocorns startups would be "The Bubble Era's "Short Of The Century." Subsequent events have only made our query more pressing: with the global economy frozen, with social distancing and self-quarantine now a mandatory part of life...



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Phil's Favorites

Stimulus package will remain half-baked unless local governments get more of the dough

 

Stimulus package will remain half-baked unless local governments get more of the dough

People still need baked goods even during a lockdown. Frederic Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephanie Leiser, University of Michigan

Lawmakers are pinning their hopes on a US$2 trillion package to prop up the U.S. economy and provide relief to individuals and business ravaged by the coronavirus. ...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Insider Scoop

Why SmileDirectClub's Stock Is Trading Higher Today

Courtesy of Benzinga

SmileDirectClub (NASDAQ: SDC) shares were trading higher on Friday, after the company announced it's now producing medical-grade face shields for health care workers amidst the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

SmileDirectClub says it has capacity to print up to 7,500 face shields per day and is accepting orders from healthcare org...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus treatments and vaccines - research on 3 types of antivirals and 10 different vaccines is being fast-tracked

 

Coronavirus treatments and vaccines – research on 3 types of antivirals and 10 different vaccines is being fast-tracked

Scientific research on the novel coronavirus has progressed at unprecedented speed. Mongkolchon Akesin / Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ignacio López-Goñi, Universidad de Navarra

Just three months after China first notified the World Health Organization about a deadly new coronavirus, studies of numerous antiviral t...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tested As A Safe Haven After Biggest Stock Crash Since 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Horus Hughes via CoinTelegraph.com,

Gold and Bitcoin react to global panic

Amid all of yesterday's chaos in bond, commodity, and stock markets, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropping below 0.5% for the first time in history - a strong indicator that investors are desperately looking for safe harbors - two supposed safe-havens in 'alternative currencies' behaved qui...



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Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.