Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI


The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI

File 20180319 31605 w7rki2.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Robert Couse-Baker/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Brendan Canavan, University of Huddersfield

Alexa’s creepy laugh is far from the most worrying thing about her. This is despite the fact that Amazon’s digital assistant – which allows users to access the internet and control personal organisation tools simply by speaking to the device – has been reported to spontaneously chuckle to herself. We shouldn’t be too concerned about her going rogue and turning on us either – a Terminator-style takeover by artificial intelligence doesn’t seem imminent.

But Alexa does pose one immediate threat. Rather than worrying about AI becoming more human, we should fear ourselves becoming more artificial by outsourcing important actions and decisions to devices like her.

This idea hasn’t been discussed much. Research suggests that the public’s main concern about AI is instead it becoming super intelligent and developing a mind of its own. Various prominent science and technology experts, such as the late physicist Stephen Hawking and the entrepreneur Elon Musk, have warned of the potential risks of such a scenario.

Yet Amazon and Google’s devices are popular, and were on many Christmas wish lists in 2017. Apple’s ad for their new Homepod contender, directed by Spike Jonze, has been generating online chatter. AI is creeping ever further into our lives. Digital home assistants are just one part of this.

While the devices are intrusive – always listening in on our previously private spaces – many people find them worth it. They listen in so that they can learn on our behalf. They learn our routines and preferences and make recommendations for us.

As a result, these machines can simplify day-to-day tasks and make life that little bit more efficient. Expensive adverts illustrate how they can tell us the weather without looking out of the window and change the TV channel without reaching for the remote. They can also look up recipes, dim the lights, distract a bored child and so forth. Alexa and her ilk can even think for us. Whether you need knowledge,…
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Cambridge Analytica: the data analytics industry is already in full swing


Cambridge Analytica: the data analytics industry is already in full swing

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Courtesy of David Beer, University of York

Revelations about Cambridge Analytica have laid bare the seeming lack of control that we have over our own data. Suddenly, with all the talk of “psychographics” and voter manipulation, the power of data analytics has become the source of some concern.

But the risk is that if we look at the case of Cambridge Analytica in isolation, we might prevent a much wider debate about the use and control of our data. By focusing on the reports of extreme practices, we might miss the many everyday ways that data analytics are now shaping our lives.

The data analytics industry is much more diverse and far-reaching than the current news coverage might lead us to believe. During a recent project, I found something quite different to the reports that we are now seeing about Cambridge Analytica.

Despite having its origins in the 1970s, when computer scientists and processing experts were beginning to try to imagine what a data-informed organisation might look like, it wasn’t until the 1990s that the data analytics industry began to really develop. Some of the most famous early examples of the organisational and individual application of data analytics were in sport, and particularly in football, where data was gathered to try to enhance performance levels, to find hidden patterns within games or to spot potential talent.

Improving performance levels. Shutterstock

Beyond this, the use of data in different sectors has spread drastically in the last 20 years, most markedly in the fields of performance management, advertising and marketing, as well as some notable developments in security and risk. This has included things like workplace talent metrics and postcode level classfications, through to the use of data about lifestyles to fix insurance premiums or in credit scoring. The increasing harvesting of data – enabled by the new infrastructures of GPS, RFID sensors, internet shopping, smartphones and social media – has created a range of new opportunities for data…
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trade stuff. again.


trade stuff. again.

Courtesy of 

I’m under the gun this morning in terms of time, but I wanted to drop the below three links on the recent trade stuff that’s been roiling the markets this week…

I’ve already weighed in on how counterproductive this all is, understanding that China does not trade fairly with the rest of the world.

read: 1,2,3,4 let’s have a Trade War!

The trade deficit, however, is not entirely a negative thing. It shows up in the profit margins of the $20 trillion US stock market, as our globally oriented companies have stuff manufactured there and then brought here at lower prices than American consumers would normally pay. We also sell a ton of stuff there that is highly profitable (technology, entertainment, consulting and other services) – in contrast with steel and aluminum, which are barely profitable.

Trade imbalances are not a meaningful indicator of the economic prosperity of a nation and its people. We get way more out of global trade than we give, no matter what someone with an agenda says on a rally stage. The US economy is the largest in the world. The US stock market is the largest in the world. US citizens have household wealth of $100 trillion. We have not been losing, nor are we losing now.

This is not the same as saying all segments of the country / economy have benefited equally from globalized trade. Of course there are examples of unfairness and abuse. But correcting some pieces of unfairness – with something as aggressive as a tariff – may not be in the best interests of the whole pie. And that’s if they can be corrected at all. Trump is not wrong in all of his rhetoric, but the unintended consequences of what he’s proposing may leave everyone worse off in the intermediate term, even if a few key elections in PA or OH are won in 2018.

Below, some different sides of the issue, make up your own mind:

Anarchist professor takes on hate speech


Anarchist professor takes on hate speech

File 20180319 31596 1dy6a7x.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

The free speech wars rage on but there is an essential difference between free speech and hate speech. Words shape the way we think about the world. (Jason Rosewell/Unsplash)

Courtesy of Simon Springer, University of Victoria

In a recent, ironically entitled Globe and Mail opinion piece, “You can’t say that on campus,” Margaret Wente sets out to defend Acadia University’s Rick Mehta. Mehta has been at the centre of what Wente calls “the free-speech wars” and her chosen title is meant to imply that he should not be silenced.

In the process of making her argument for Mehta, Wente decided to string me up as an example of all that she believes to be wrong in contemporary academia. She writes about my years of research, publishing and teaching as a “brand of rubbish…depressingly common at our institutions of higher learning.”

Yet problematic in Wente’s apparent championing of free speech is her transparent desire to silence me. After moulding her caricature of me, she then adds a last dig to my scholarship alongside her call for free speech: “Students don’t need a safe space to protect them from… Prof. Mehta. They need responsible adults to protect them from the likes of Prof. Springer.”

I have received an onslaught of hate mail since Wente’s piece was published, including thinly veiled threats that indicate knowledge of where my office is located.

Anarchist geography has a long tradition and includes revered scientist Peter Kropotkin. (Simon Springer/Kropotkin Museum in Dmitrov)

I believe Wente’s ire for me stems in part from her puzzlement with my research area of anarchist geography. Despite a long tradition dating back to the mid-19th century, when renowned Russian scientist Peter Kropotkin first advanced his concept of “Mutual Aid,” Wente is self-admittedly unaware of the field.

What likely put me in her sights was a recent diatribe about me by policy scholar Steven Hayward, published on the U.S. conservative blog Power Line. In his post, he takes aim at my provocatively titled article “Fuck Neoliberalism” published in ACME:
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Earthquakes from the oil and gas industry are plaguing Oklahoma – here’s a way to reduce them


Earthquakes from the oil and gas industry are plaguing Oklahoma – here's a way to reduce them

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Courtesy of Thomas Gernon, University of Southampton

“There are better ways we can be doing things,” says Erin Brockovich, the environmental activist portrayed in the Oscar-winning 2000 film, who has become one of the latest people to draw attention to the frequent man-made earthquakes plaguing the US state of Oklahoma.

In 2008, the state recorded only one earthquake of magnitude 3 or greater (big enough to be felt by people locally). In 2015, the number of earthquakes of equivalent magnitude peaked at a staggering 903. Oklahoma has been transformed from a seismic dead zone to a hotspot in less than a decade.

Scientists attribute this unprecedented increase in seismicity to the oil and gas industry injecting its wastewater (known as “saltwater”) deep underground. In a study published in the journal Science, my colleagues and I have now shown that the size of these man-made earthquakes is strongly linked to the depth at which the saltwater is injected. As a result, reducing the depth of injections could significantly reduce the likelihood of larger, damaging earthquakes.

There are now more than 10,000 injection wells dotted across Oklahoma. This includes both oil recovery wells and wells used to dispose of the saltwater that is an unwanted byproduct of the oil and gas extraction process. The water is injected deep underground, typically at depths of 1km to 2km. This deliberately is well below the level of fresh ground water supplies in order to avoid contamination. Since 2011, well operators have injected on average 2.3 billion barrels of fluid a year into layers of sedimentary rock deep underground.

The link between Oklahoma’s earthquakes and wastewater disposal was firmly established by a 2013 study that showed a strong association between the injection zone and earthquakes, including the 2011 magnitude 5.7 Prague event.

Since 2015, some new regulations have led to an overall decline in the number of earthquakes. But the total seismic energy (the “moment”) has not dropped as
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How energy storage is starting to rewire the electricity industry


How energy storage is starting to rewire the electricity industry

File 20180321 165568 1fs0fme.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Grid-scale energy storage systems may make it easier to rely completely on renewable energy. petrmalinak/

Courtesy of Eric Hittinger, Rochester Institute of Technology and Eric Williams, Rochester Institute of Technology

The market for energy storage on the power grid is growing at a rapid clip, driven by declining prices and supportive government policies.

Based on our research on the operation and costs of electricity grids, especially the benefits of new technologies, we are confident energy storage could transform the way American homeowners, businesses and utilities produce and use power.

Balancing acts

Energy storage in this context simply means saving electricity for later use. It’s like having a bunch of rechargeable batteries, but much larger than the ones in your cellphone and probably connected to the grid.

After annual average growth of about 50 percent for five years, the U.S. electricity industry installed a total of 1 gigawatt-hour of new storage capacity between 2013 and 2017, according to the firm GTM Research. That’s enough to power 16 million laptops for several hours. While this amount of storage is less than 0.2 percent of the average amount of electricity the U.S. consumes, analysts predict that installations will double between 2017 and 2018 and then keep expanding rapidly in the U.S. and around the world.

To see why this trend is a big deal, consider how electricity works.

It takes a hidden world of complexity and a series of delicate balancing acts to power homes and workplaces because the grid has historically had little storage capacity. After being generated at power plants, electricity usually travels down power lines at the speed of light and most of it is consumed immediately.

Without the means to store electricity, utilities have to produce just enough to meet demand around the clock, including peak hours.

That makes electricity different from most industries. Just imagine what would happen if automakers had to do this. The moment you bought a car, a worker would have to drive it out the factory gate. Assembly lines would constantly speed…
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Don’t quit Facebook, but don’t trust it, either


Don't quit Facebook, but don't trust it, either

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What is this man doing with your data? AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

Courtesy of Denise Anthony, Dartmouth College and Luke Stark, Dartmouth College

Is it time to give up on social media? Many people are thinking about that in the wake of revelations regarding Cambridge Analytica’s questionable use of personal data from over 50 million Facebook users to support the Trump campaign. Not to mention the troubles with data theft, trolling, harassment, the proliferation of fake news, conspiracy theories and Russian bots.

The real societal problem might be Facebook’s business model. Along with other social media platforms, it makes money by nudging users to provide their data (without understanding the potential consequences), and then using that data in ways well beyond what people may expect.

As researchers who study social media and the impact of new technologies on society in both the past and the present, we share these concerns. However, we’re not ready to give up on the idea of social media just yet. A main reason is that, like all forms of once “new” media (including everything from the telegraph to the internet), social media has become an essential conduit for interacting with other people. We don’t think it’s reasonable for users to be told their only hope of avoiding exploitation is to isolate themselves. And for many vulnerable people, including members of impoverished, marginalized or activist communities, leaving Facebook is simply not possible anyway.

As individuals, and society as a whole, come to better understand the role social media plays in life and politics, they’re wondering: Is it possible – or worthwhile – to trust Facebook?

Designing for attention

Of course, social media platforms don’t exist without their users. Facebook has grown from its origins serving only college students by exploiting the network effect: If all your friends are socializing on the site, it’s tempting to join yourself. Over time this network effect has made Facebook not only more valuable, but also harder to leave.

However, now that Facebook and its ilk are under…
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Why Trump will weather Stormy


Why Trump will weather Stormy

Courtesy of Monika L. McDermott, Fordham University

Donald Trump’s opponents have long been waiting for some sort of scandal to bring him down, and they may think they have finally found it in pornographic film star Stormy Daniels.

Daniels alleges she had an extramarital affair with Donald Trump in 2006 and was subsequently paid off by a Trump lawyer to stay silent during the presidential election. These types of charges, if proven true, have felled many politicians in the past.

But Trump’s opponents probably shouldn’t get their hopes up.

While political science research has shown that politicians are generally hurt by political scandals like extramarital affairs, the context is key.

A study I conducted with political scientists Doug Schwartz and Sebastian Vallejo explored how scandals can affect a politician’s popularity. We did find that a politician’s image and ability to attract votes can suffer in the wake of an extramarital affair. However, the harm is significantly greater when a politician who has campaigned on morality gets caught having an affair.

In other words, it’s the hypocrisy that matters. Our study found that a scandal can reduce support for a generic candidate, but a scandal accompanied by hypocrisy is where the damage is really done, reducing support by 67 percentage points.

A porn star alleging an affair with a politician and receiving hush money may have seemed inconceivable just a few years ago. But Trump has made it much less remarkable. If anything, it fits with the image many have of him.

Trump was in the public eye long before he entered politics, and allegations of infidelity have dogged him for decades. Long before his presidential run, many Americans knew about his infamous, public divorce battle with his first wife, Ivana Trump, who accused Trump of cheating on her with the woman who would soon be his second wife, Marla Maples. Since then, allegations of extramarital affairs and sexual misconduct have only piled up.

Sixty-five percent of Americans in a recent CNN poll view Stormy Daniels’ charges as definitely or probably true. At the same time, few Americans believe Trump holds the same moral values as they do.…
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TGIF – Indexes Turn Red for 2018, Japan in Turmoil

chartDown 6.9% for the month!

That's the damage on the Nikkei after yesterday's 4.5% dip, putting Japan's market down 10% for the year (so far).  China's Shanghai dropped 3.4% in response to Trump's Tariffs but, so far, China has not responded in kind so, as we expected, the indexes are finding a bit of support at S&P 2,640, which is exactly what we prediced they would do on Wednesday morning.

Remember:  I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – that is the extent of my powers.  The rest is up to you!

In the case of our S&P call from Wednesday morning's report, the 80-point drop from 2,720 to 2,640 was good for gains of $4,000 per contract (you're welcome!) and now we'll see what kind of bounce we get on the way to a full correction at 2,400, which will be good for another $12,000 per contract if all goes well (or badly, I suppose).  

As 2,640 is the 20% line on our Big Chart (a level we drew more than a year ago) and as the fall from the 25% line at 2,750 was 110 points – we'll be looking for 22-point bounces to 2,666 (weak and satanic) and 2,688 (strong) and, if the weak bounce fails to hold today – look out below on Monday!  the next proper support for the S&P Futures (/ES) will be the 15% line at 2,530 and the next stop below that is our 2,400 goal (2,420 to be exact).  THEN we get excited to buy things – despite the Trade Wars.

Until then, we have plenty of longs and plenty of hedges so we just sit back and watch and wait.  The US and European markets are closed next Friday (my Birthday, actually Thurs but it's celbrated on Friday this year) and Easter is Sunday and that Monday will be slow and that whole week will be slow, as will the weak before (next week) so not the best time to determine what levels are holding up but a great time to take a break!

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How do forensic engineers investigate bridge collapses, like the one in Miami?


How do forensic engineers investigate bridge collapses, like the one in Miami?

File 20180321 165577 sf1q0z.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

What caused this bridge to collapse? AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

Courtesy of Martin Gordon, Rochester Institute of Technology

On March 15, a 950-ton partially assembled pedestrian bridge at Florida International University in Miami suddenly collapsed onto the busy highway below, killing six people and seriously injuring nine. Forensic engineers are taking center stage in the ongoing investigation to find out what happened and why – and, crucially, to learn how to prevent similar tragedies in the future.

I’m not actively involved in this investigation, but I’ve been a forensic engineer for nearly 20 years and am the 2018 president of the National Academy of Forensic Engineers. Similar to forensic scientists, we visit scenes of disasters and crimes to determine what role engineering practices played in what happened. The first step in any forensic investigation, collecting evidence, often can’t begin until survivors are rescued and victims are recovered. Those operations displace material and can damage evidence, which means forensic engineers must study the emergency response as well, to be able to tell whether, for instance, a support column collapsed during the event or was destroyed to reach a victim in need of help. During the FIU recovery efforts rescuers used large equipment to break up massive blocks of concrete so that victims’ bodies could be recovered.

In Miami at the moment, forensic engineers and technicians from the National Transportation Safety Board are on the scene. Right now they’re collecting samples of materials from the bridge to test for their physical properties. They’re reviewing drawings and plans, and examining both industry standards and site engineers’ calculations to understand what was supposed to be built – to compare with what was actually constructed. They’ll look at photographs and videos of the collapse to identify the sequence of events and locations of key problems. Of course, they’ll also talk to witnesses to find out what workers and passersby saw and heard around the time of its collapse.

Every element holds clues to what happened – including the cracks in the concrete

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Phil's Favorites

The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI


The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI

Robert Couse-Baker/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Brendan Canavan, University of Huddersfield

Alexa’s creepy laugh is far from the most worrying thing about her. This is despite the fact that Amazon’s digital assistant – which allows users to access the internet and control personal organisation tools simply by speaking to the device – has been reported to spontaneously chuckle to herself. We shouldn’t be too concerned about he...

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Zero Hedge

Trader Shares "A Few Ideas For Avoiding A Friday Faceplant"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Bloomberg macro commentator, Richard Breslow

Don’t mistake this as a trade recommendation, but it is all right to do nothing. Trading when you believe you have an edge is when it is time to step in. If you are there, then go for it. But trading merely because things are moving around is a day-trading concept, not an investment thesis.

It’s important to match trading style, objectives and realistic liquidity assumptions to how you view volatility vs risk. They are very much not the same thing. Made even more so if you think the Fed equity put has been eliminated. It hasn&#...

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Insider Scoop

41 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (NASDAQ: OMEX) shares climbed 118.42 percent to close at $8.30 on Thursday after the company disclosed positive Mexico Court Decision nullifying a previous denial of application for Don Diego project.
  • Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) shares gained 35.31 percent to close at $15.75. The maker of a cataract surgery drug called Omidria realized a "big win" from Wednesday's release of the U.S. government spending bill, according to Stat News. Specifically, a policy included in the spending bill includes a pass-through exte... more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Cycles Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker. uses Bartel's logic to find dominant cycles in a time series.

Cycles are present in markets, as shown below the 22 and 40 day cycles on calendar days looks like the best fit. Therefore the chart below suggest we can expect a bitcoin low either now or in a few weeks.

Bitcoin has not been effected by the SP500/Dow sell off which is a very bullish sign, bitcoin may see safe haven money chasing price very soon, add to this the sister coin, litecoin, isgetting ready for wider use with the massive e-commerce payment market (litepay, litepal, atomic swamps, lightening network).

The bitcoin move is not over!


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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Speaks With CNBC's "Power Lunch" Today

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

WHEN: Today, Thursday, March 22, 2018

WHERE: CNBC’s “Power Lunch”

Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F 1PM – 3PM) today, Thursday, March 22nd. Following are links to video from the interview on

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.


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Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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