Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working?

Analysis: Breaking Down the Unemployment Crisis by Industry | U.S. Chamber  of Commerce10M jobs.  

That's how many jobs we need to make up just to get back to where we were, which still wasn't full employment.  Let's say those 10M people made an average of $50,000 per year so that's $500Bn in wages lost and wages are generally less than 1/3 of revenus so that's $1.5Tn (7.5%) of our $20Tn economy still lost in the pandemic, reflected JUST in those 10M wageless people.  Add that to the overall slowdown in the rest of the economy and you can see why "maximizing employment" is what the Fed is all about.  The economy is all about putting people to work and I know you are trained to think PRODUCTIVITY will save us but Q4 productivity was DOWN 4.2% – the worst drop in 39 years (1981).

Hours Worked for those who still have jobs were down 10.1% from Q4 2019 but Unit Labor Cost was UP 6%, meaning it was costing more money to get the same amount of productivity from the workers.  Why is that?  Working at home is slightly less efficient and the supply chain is a total disaster, which causes parts and material shortages so, if you show up at the factory to make a car but there are no tires….  well, you are not going to be as productive, are you?  

Of course, it doesn't have to be a whole tire that stops you from making a car, just missing a lug nut or that little thing where you put the air in can stop you from making the whole car.  Right now it's chips that are causing the biggest problems across many industries – you can't make most products without microchips these days.  So the whole World has to be healthy in order for our economy to be healthy – just putting America First doesn't get you into first place.

The Role of Supply Chain Management in Your Business Operation | Supply  chain management, Global supply chain, Supply chain logistics

 

Global Supply Chains Explained … in One Graphic | U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Looking at the Boeing plane, for example,
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Free Lunch Thursday – Powell Scheduled to Boost Confidence at Noon

MacroView: 2021 - A Disappointment Of Growth And Disinflation | Seeking  AlphaWhat inflation?

That's been the Fed's consistent message as they like to pretend they can print $9Tn in a single year – adding 25% to the money supply – and it will have no effect on inflation (so we should keep pretending that less than 1.5% for a 10-year note is a fair rate of return).  Any child who's played Monopoly knows that, as more money is put into the game by the banker – more money is spent on things like properties and hotels.  This is toddler economics.  

President Toddler owns a lot of hotels and he was well aware that if, we pumped $9Tn into the economy, some of it would trickle down into his organization.  President T's pals also did very well, with America's 660 Billionaires getting over 1,000 Billion Dollars (1Tn) richer during the pandemic.  A 38.6% gain in their fortunes since March of 2020.  In fact, before the pandemic there were only 614 Billionaries – 46 people became Billionaires in the past year!

The chasm between those at the very top of America's economic ladder and those in the middle and at the bottom was immense before the damage inflicted by the pandemic on the U.S. economy. That divide has widened. According to a study released Monday by economists Bruce Meyer from the University of Chicago and James Sullivan of the University of Notre Dame, America’s poverty rate increased by 2.4 percentage points over the final six months of 2020. That’s the largest increase since the 1960s and is nearly double the largest annual increase in poverty over the last 50 years.  We truly are Great Again for the 666 that are taking in all the wealth.  All hail the ruling class!  

An additional 8 million people nationwide are now considered poor – and that makes sense because you have to take $5,000 away from 8M people in order to give $1Bn to 40 people – that's just math, folks!  Black Americans (5.4% increase) representing a disproportionate share of those thrust into poverty. More than 70 million individuals (or roughly 40% of the labor force) have filed unemployment claims in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic.  10M more people are still unemployed…
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Ensuring the minimum wage keeps up with economic growth would be the best way to help workers and preserve FDR’s legacy

 

Ensuring the minimum wage keeps up with economic growth would be the best way to help workers and preserve FDR's legacy

It may seem like a lot, but it’s not the most important change in the bill. AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Courtesy of Felix Koenig, Carnegie Mellon University

The US$1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill that the House just passed includes a gradual increase in the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2025. While its chances in the Senate appear slim, the proposal has brought national attention to the minimum wage, which has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009.

Supporters argue a higher minimum wage would translate into higher incomes for millions of low-wage employees, such as restaurant waiters, retail salespeople and child care workers, and thereby lift a lot of people out of poverty. Opponents claim it would hurt businesses and lead to a lot of job losses.

As an economist who studies labor markets and income inequality, I believe both claims exaggerate the impact and miss a key point of what the minimum wage is meant to achieve. The current debate offers a perfect opportunity to restore the wage floor’s original purpose, as laid out by FDR over 70 years ago.

Preventing employer abuses

The federal minimum wage was first implemented under the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938 at a very modest 25 cents an hour – about $4.61 today – and applied only to “employees engaged in interstate commerce or in the production of goods for interstate commerce.” Think manufacturing workers, miners and truck drivers.

It took 18 years before Congress raised it to a buck, and the wage was soon expanded to include lots of other workers, such as retail employees, gas station attendants and nursing home aides. The latest increase, in 2009, set the wage at $7.25. It now applies to almost all workers except the self-empoyed, small-farm laborers, teenagers and those who receive tips, as well as a handful of other exempted groups.

But the principal intention was not to provide a “living wage”…
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Which Way Wednesday? Vaccines by May and $1.9Tn – So What?

Ben Sargent Takes on the Texas 'Stay Home' ProtestersStill not enough? 

As I pointed out last week, these things don't happen in a vacuum and the vacuum at the center of the US economy really sucks.  The stimulus package is being passed, Biden has stepped up the pace of vaccination so that we all should have our shots by Memorial Day and, just this morning, the Governor of Texas announced the state will be "100% open as of March 10th" and sure, he's an idiot and not listening to Health Experts but neither is MIssissippi Governor, Tate Reeves, who will open up his state on the 9th.  

"Our hospitalizations and case numbers have plummeted, and the vaccine is being rapidly distributed. It is time!," Reeves tweeted Tuesday.  In the last year, Texans have "mastered the daily habits to avoid getting Covid," Abbott said. As of Monday, 6.57% of Texans have been fully vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins University.  "Now is not the time to reverse the gains we've worked so hard to achieve," Harris County Judge Lina Hidago said in a written objection: "At best, today's decision is wishful thinking. At worst, it is a cynical attempt to distract Texans from the failures of state oversight of our power grid."

Even Jason Brewer, of the Retail Industry Leaders Association, thinks this is a bad idea – saying: 

"Relaxing common-sense safety protocols like wearing masks is a mistake.  Going backwards on safety measures will unfairly put retail employees back in the role of enforcing guidelines still recommended by the CDC and other public health advocates.  It could also jeopardize the safety of pharmacies and grocers that are gearing up as vaccination centers."
Trump's Screechy Swan Song: Lining Up Ugly Ducklings for Biden | Random  Lengths NewsHouston Mayor Sylvester Turner said Abbott's announcement "really undermines all of the sacrifices that have been made by medical professionals, doctors, nurses, EMS workers, firefighters, police officers, municipal workers, people in the community."  Austin Mayor Steve Adler told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Tuesday night


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Toppy Tuesday – Again?

Last weeks was: "Toppy Tuesday – What More Can Powell Say or Do at this Point?"

Today I can take the day off becuase here we are again, back at S&P 3,900 along with Dow 31,500, Nasdaq 13,250 and Russell 2,270 all trending lower than their previous two Tuesday's.  Why Tuesday?  Because Monday markets are very low-volume and easily manipulated with M&A Rumors and Analyst Upgrades along with Government Happy Talk and, of course, a healthy dose of 401K deposits rolling in from Friday's Payrolls.  

That allows "THEM" to take advantage on a weekly basis and overcharge long-term savers for their positions as they drip-feed their retirement accounts,  In fact, Randers pointed out last week that the weekend performance of the S&P 500 (when no one is trading) accounted for about 25% of all gains over the past 10 years.  

Even "better", overnight trading (when no one is looking) accounted for OVER 50% of the total market gains.  So nights and weekends are when all the real money is being made, apparently.

That's why shorting on Tuesdays has been good to us – by Tuesday people are trading and, when there is volume in the market, it usually turns lower because there aren't that many real buyers out there – certainly not at these elevated prices!  Guo Shuquing agrees with me and he's the Communist Party Boss at the People's Bank of China.  Guo (last name) said this morning: "We are really afraid the bubble for foreign financial assets will burst someday."  Guo is also the Chairman of China's Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission – kind of a right wing Elizabeth Warren...

Investors, hedge fund managers and former central banking officials have all expressed concerns too, as Wall Street trades near record highs even as the United States continues to grapple with the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.  Guo echoed such fears, adding that the rallies in US and European markets don't reflect the underlying economic challenges facing both regions as they try to recover from the brutal pandemic recession.

Guo's remarks shook markets in the region. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOM) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) were both trending upward before Guo's speech, building on…
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Just Another Manic Monday

Up we go again!

In the end, the S&P 500 only made a weak retracement of the rally, back to the 3,800 line on the button, per our 5% Rule as we noted on Friday morning.  Since then we bounced back but it's a fall from 3,900 so those bounces then should be 20 points so 3,820 (weak) and 3,840 (strong) and we don't pay much attention to the Futures but a fail to hold a strong bounce today means we are still more likely to be consolidating for a move down to 3,700 this week.  

Bonds finally stopped falling (which indicates rates are rising) but they too are likely just bouncing after falling 5% from 140 to 133 so we're not very impressed with that move either until we see a strong bounce – which would be 2 points back to 135 – where you can see we paused on the way down.

Pausing here is certainly nothing to get excited about as the US just held a TERRIBLE 7-year note auction that got very little interest (the lowest demand in history) and the 10-year note yield is still about 1.5% – back to where it was pre-Covid and miles above the Feds 0.25% target rate – a gap that shows how far away from reality the Fed really is at the moment.  

Almost everything that mattered was red on Thursday. Treasuries sank, driving the yield on 10-year notes up as many as 23 basis points to 1.61%. Stock losses were most pronounced in Nasdaq-100 and small-cap shares that, with help from frenzied speculators and economic optimists alike, had led equities higher. Corporate bonds continued to rack up the biggest losses since the pandemic began as companies scramble to sell debt before yields go up even more. The dollar surged in a classic haven trade.

A return to pre-pandemic yield levels didn't calm anyone

So, what's gotten better over the weekend?  Nothing really.  “I was surprised to see the almost complacency from Fed officials, with naive comments about U.S. bond yields reflecting a stronger outlook,” said Thomas Costerg of Pictet Wealth Management in Geneva.  What sounds like reassurance to US investors sounds like idiocy to Global Traders – that's why no one is buying our bonds anymore –
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TGIF – The Weak Ends Just in Time

Now oil is down 2.5%.

Of course $62 is going to be bouncy, that's our shorting line and, according to the fabulous 5% Rule™, a 5% drop gives us 1% bounces (20% of the drop) and we're down $1.60 from $63.60 so 0.32 bounces to $62.32 (weak) and $62.64 (strong).  If we fail to hold the weak bounce and head back to $62, there's a good chance it will fail.  Failing at $63.64 is a bit trickier as we could be consolidating for a move up or down – it requires patience.  

If we fail $63.64 and then fall back below the weak bounce line and consolidate between the strong and weak bounce lines – THEN we can anticipate a break lower.  How much lower?   At least half of the previous drop so another 1.25% to $61.66.  Now that we KNOW how much the potential reward is, we can calculate the potential risk and decide whether it's worth the trade.  Clearly, at $62.25, I can make a bet that $62.32 will fail and set a stop at $62.35, risking a loss of $100 per contract if we stop out at $62.35.  The next test would be at $62.60, with a stop at $62.70 – so another $100 risked but the reward of a drop back to $61.66 would be $1,000 gain per contract.  

We've been playing the Oil Futures (/CL) with conviction and, although we have a nice $10,000 gain this morning – it only makes us even as we've had to double down our two shorts twice.  Now we're at goal as all we ever wanted to do was get back to even and get back to 2 shorts – but now at a much higher basis ($62.24) for a long-term play.

Conviction shorts are very different and require a lot more risk tolerance – they are certainly not for everyone.  Our conviction is that next week's OPEC meeting will not do enough to keep prices over $60, so we're positioning for that.  

So we're back to just 2 short at $62.245 and we'll add 2 more at $62.60 with that same stop at $62.70 on the 2 new ones.  If we go higher than that, we wait to DD again at about
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Comment by 1020

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  1. 1020

    The /YM looks like a giant rainbow in the last 24 hours on the 15 minute chart.  :)







32,000 Thursday – Dow Touches Another Record

Dow 36, 000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the  Stock Market: Glassman, James, Hassett, Kevin, Glassman, James K., Hassett,  Kevin A.: 9780812931457: Amazon.com: BooksDow 32,000!

I guess it's time to read that book by Glassman and Hassett from 1999 – as that was their prediction at the time for where we'd be in 5 years.  Sure it's 22 years later but, hey, better late than never, right?  At the time, with the Dow at 12,000, they said:

The single most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: They are cheap….If you are worried about missing the market's big move upward, you will discover that it is not too late. Stocks are now in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground–to the neighborhood of 36,000 on the Dow Jones industrial average.

The Dow was pushed down by the bursting of the dot-com bubble as the NASDAQ peaked in 2000 and bottomed out in 2002, and by the September 11 attacks in 2001. The Dow fell below 8,000 in 2002, remained below 12,000 until 2006, and below 30,000 until later 2020 and now, here we are at 32,000 (for a moment), this morning.

At the time, the book was largely discredited as misstating the risk characteristics of equity securities as equivalent to U.S. Treasury fixed income securities, it is commonly believed discredited for predicting a grossly inflated stock market.

The point is, everyone sounds like a genius when telling you to follow a trend – for as long as the trend holds out.  When the trend reverses, however, it's more like "who could have seen that coming?"  Well, rational people for one thing.  Water boils at 212 degrees and you can put water on the stimulus of a 500 degree burner and it will heat up very quickly and the trend from 180 to 200 may suggest the water will be at 280 degrees in 10 minutes but it never will be, will it?  That's because, at a certain point, Physics takes over and limitations are reached.  

No matter how much stimulus you apply, you will never get the water over 212 degrees because it simply can't be water at 213 degrees.  The economy and the market may
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Comment by biodieselchris

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  1. biodieselchris

    It's time to look into lithium miner plays and get serious about that. What are the picks?







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Food Price Inflation Accelerates For Ninth Consecutive Month; Destabilization Risk For Emerging Markets Elevated

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index rose for a ninth consecutive month in February, hitting levels not seen since July 2014, led by sugar and vegetable oils. 

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) measures the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, such as cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat, and sugar. FFPI average 116 for the month, versus 113.2 in January. 

...

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Phil's Favorites

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 03, 2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 03, 2021

 

Major Topics:
 

00:00:01 - Checking on the Market
00:01:27 - Crude Oil WTI
00:04:52 - Nasdaq 100
00:06:13 - STP
00:08:01 - TZA
00:10:41 -LTP
00:11:49 - SKT | INTC
00:14;15 - LTP | STP
00:14:27 - Butterfly Portfolio
00:14:38 - Dividend Portfolio
00:14:43 - Earnings Portfolio
00:14:49 - Future is Now Portfolio
00:14:54 - Money Talk Portfolio
00:18:09 ...



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ValueWalk

These Are The 10 Largest Individual Landholders

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Land is among the most valuable assets and is also considered a safe asset. However, a significant portion of total inhabitable land (36.8 billion acres) belongs to people for whom investment is not the primary objective. These people are mostly leaders of their countries. If you want to know more about them, then detailed below are the ten largest individual landholders.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

10 Largest Individual Landholders

Our list of the ten largest individual landholders in the world is based on data from ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Bond Yields Fastest Rise In 50 Years Rattle Markets?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The waterfall decline of bond yields (and interest rates) has been met with an equally steep rally.

In fact, the 10-Year US Treasury bond yield is up 131% in 45 weeks, making it the biggest rally in 50 years! See the chart below.

Earlier today we asked if the 40-Year Bond Bull Market Is Over? And we highlighted how bonds and yields are facing an important test right now.

Will the record rise in bond yields continue? And will bond pric...



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Politics

Why repressive Saudi Arabia remains a US ally

 

Why repressive Saudi Arabia remains a US ally

A demonstrator dressed as Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with blood on his hands protests outside the Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 8, 2018. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey Fields, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman “approved an operation … to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” according to a...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

 

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

Many U.S. hospitals and clinics are behind when it comes to sharing information. Teera Konakan/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth A. Regan, University of South Carolina

If you got the COVID-19 shot, you likely received a little paper card that shows you’ve been vaccinated. Make sure you keep that card in a safe place. There is no coordinated way to share information about who has been vaccinated and who has not.

...

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Mapping The Market

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

 

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

Courtesy of Niall McCarthy, Statista

On Wednesday, U.S. regulators announced that Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine being developed by its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Belgium is effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of the disease. The jab has been deemed safe with 66 percent efficacy and the FDA is likely to approve it for use in the U.S. within days.

The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine can be stored for up to three months in a refrigerator and requires a single shot, ...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto - It Is Different This Time

 

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend...



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Chart School

The Fastest Money

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The fast money happens near the end of the long trend.

Securities which attract a popular following by both the public and professionals investors tend to repeat the same sentiment over their bull phase. The chart below is the map of said sentiment.
 


 

Video on the subject.


 

Charts in the video



 



 



Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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