Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

3636 Friday – S&P 500 Re-Tests Election Highs on Black Friday

Here we go again.  

The S&P 500 is at 3,636 in the Futures (/ES) and, when we tested 3,640 earlier this month, we were harshly rejected with a 120-point (3.3%) drop but we quickly recovered – and then we quickly dropped again – but now we've quickly recovered, so let's all enjoy the pundits telling us how this rally is sustainable (this time).

Apple (AAPL) is down from $137 to $116 since early September and that's down 15% so it's actually very impressive that the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have all held up well while their leader declined.  It means people are putting money into relatively "bargain" stocks and that can put an underlying floor on the market we can build off.

Nonetheless, we went a lot deeper into CASH!!! in our Member Portfolios because it simply isn't worth the risk since we still don't know if Trump will willingly leave the White House and we don't know if there will be stimulus and we don't know if the virus will stop peaking (we are averaging almost 150,000 per day now) and we don't know if Black Friday will be a bust – too many unknowns to risk an overvalued market….

The US now has 90,000 people actively in the hospital with Covid-19 and 110,000 new cases were reported yesterday so there's no end in site as we approach the limits of our medical capacity to treat people.  Thanksgiving itself could become a super-spreader event as 50M Americans (20% of the population) ignored the CDC and traveled for the holidays and 1,200 people are no longer thankful as the death toll climbs to 263,000 since March.

As you can see, we've had only 8M outcomes out of 12.5M infections in the US as more people are actively infected today than any other time in the outbreak – and they all just got together for Thanksgiving.  This disease is 3% fatal folks!  Typically, it takes 2-3 weeks to start seeing case counts rise after spreader events and by then we'll all be getting together for Christmas – have a merry one!


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Which Way Wednesday – To Infinity and Beyond?

Record highs!

New vaccines, Biden beginning his transition, Trump losing in courts – yes, things are looking up compared to the way the World seemed about to end for the last 6 months but that doesn't fix our economy.  Even the Dow gains of 50% in 4 years are coming off a very narrow-based rally in which just two stocks, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are responsible for the majority of the index's gains.

At the beggining of the year, the S&P 500 was priced at an already-high 18.4 times the earnings expected in 2020, and 15.5 times the earnings expected in 2022. Now, it is priced at 26.1 times the adjusted 2020 earnings forecast and no one is sure of 2022.  2021, let's say the 2nd half is "normal" and we have stimulus in the first half – figure 20-21x earnings in 2021 at this pace, still 25% above the historically normal 16x earning for the index.

And, don't forget, all that assumes NOTHING ELSE GOES WRONG.  

One of the things that could go wrong is a US Recession/Depression but it looks like we're planning to stimulate our way out of that and that's what put us over the top this week – Janet Yellen is the new Secretary of the Treasury and she helped usher in the low-rater era for the Fed – it's not likely she'll want to oversee the end of it.  However, 10-year rates are now at 0.9% anyway, up from 0.5% earlier in the year (the spike up in the chart).  

TLT is one of the ETFs we like to short at the top of their channel (140 on the 10-year, 170 on the ETF) as, generally, it's very doubtful that the US will move towards a zero-rate policy even though, effectively, we're standing at the door-step.  Paying people to borrow money is simply not a sustainable economic model and, when you do that on the scale of the United States of America, who are borrowing $500Bn a month in 2020 – there's just no way to make it work.

You can sell the TLT March $170 calls for $2 and use that money to help


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Testy Tuesday – S&P 3,600 Yet Again

This is a strong-looking chart:  

The S&P 500 is clearly consolidating ABOVE the 3,600 line at this point and, if we hold it into the end of the year, that will bode very well for next year.  Nonetheless, we're still shorting the S&P (/ES) Futures if they dip back below the 3,600 line (now 3,602) with tight stops above simply because it's a very positive risk/reward play as we can stop out at, for example, 3,602.50 with a $125 loss but, just yesterday, /ES was down at 3,550, which would have been a $2,500 gain.  When you can win $2,500 and risk $125, you only have to be right once in a while to do very well.

Yes there is going to be a vaccine, I would say by May, things should be getting back to normal but they aren't normal now and they won't be normal for Christmas so I really don't see how Q4 GDP will be any good and Q1 not so great either.  So it's another sub-par year for the first half, at least and, even if there is not a coup, Biden will not be likely to run up $6Tn in debt – as Trump did this year.  Biden is also very likely to raise taxes on the wealthy (over $400,000 in income) and wealthy Corporations – doesn't that impact their bottom-line earnings?   

Biden is likely to move us towards a stronger Dollar and that too, is not great for stocks and Biden wants stronger wages – not good for the bottom line.  That's why Chipotle (CMG) is one of my favorite shorts – higher wages hit them hard, as will reality if it ever rears its ugly head and notices that CMG is trading at over 150 TIMES their annual earnings.  

$1,300 per share is a $36Bn valuation for a company whose best year was a profit of $475M – and that was back in 2015!  Since then, $22M (when they poisoned their customers), $176M, $176M and $350M last year.  Even if they get back to $500M ($164M in the first 3 quarters of 2020) – they'd still be at an insane 72x earnings for a restaurant that is near its saturation point.  Labor…
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Monday Market Movement – More Vaccines Boost Futures – Again

TOMMY EXPLAINED!!! | michaelckeysIf it's Monday we must have a new vaccine.

Every Monday for the Month of November (other than before the election – hahahaha), we have had an announcement that there is a 90% effective Covid vaccine and today it's AstraZeneca/Oxford's turn.  MRNA and PFE have already announced theirs and it looks like Pfizer is the loser in the vaccine race as theirs requires special, extreme-cold delievery while the other vaccines require only normal refrigeration.  

AstraZeneca said it would seek emergency-use authorization from the World Health Organization to experiment on distribute the vaccine in Low-Income countries and prepare regulatory submissions to authorities in countries that have early-approval programs.  Pending regulatory authorization, the shot could be available in limited volumes by year-end, with hundreds of millions more doses available each month after that

We sure need that vaccine as US Hospitalizations for Covid hit a record this weekend with 142,732 new cases yesterday, capping off another week of 1M infections in the US.  Friday we were just 3,996 short of 200,000 new infections so by next weekend we should expect to be seeing populations the size of Salt Lake City or Vancouver getting infected in a single day.   83,870 people are hospitalized around the country with a new record being set daily.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned that cases are rising so quickly in parts of the New York City borough of Staten Island that nonessential businesses may be closed and mass gatherings banned there later this week. The bodies of hundreds of people who died in the city during spring surge are still in freezer trucks on the Brooklyn waterfront.

So happy Monday!  

A Tokyo Metropolitan Government official calls for self-restraintOf course we can't blame Trump – even in Japan, with a population of 126M people living in a country the size of California, they have had 132,300 cases of the virus TOTAL and the seven people who died this weekend bring their nation's death toll to 1,981, TOTAL.  So don't blame President Trump – he's doing the best he can, right?  

Other G20 leaders (Trump boycotted the announcents) have vowed to work together to combat the Corona Virus that has now infected over 12M people world-wide.  The G20 Communiqe pledged "To spare…
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Philstockworld November Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,486,878!

Although that's down a bit from our October Portfolio Review, that's only because we cashed out the old Short-Term Portfolio back on October 28th and we didn't carry the gains forward due to a discrepancy arising from the Tesla (TSLA) split so we reset the STP to $200,000 from $620,909 so really, we've made incredible gains in the last month as the LTP was only $974,283 on the day we re-set – as we got heavily bullish during that mini-crash.

As is has been all year, our timing was pretty perfect and the LTP has rocketed back from $974,283 to $1,295,033 as of Tuesday's review, which is up $320,750 (33%) in 33 days as the S&P flew back from 3,250 to 3,600 (up 10.7%).  Of course that's ridiculous and of course we were lucky to time it perfectly so OF COURSE we took the money and ran on Tuesday, cashing in 40% of our LTP positions – enough is enough!  

As the great stock trader, Kenny Rogers tells us:

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin'

When the dealin's done

S&P 3,600 is certainly enough and certainly too much to risk as we're up more than 50% in 4 years (thank you, Mr. Trump – now LEAVE!) and that's more than double the usual 8% you can expect to gain annually and maybe it will keep going and maybe it won't but we're very confident we can make more money if the bull cycle…
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    Good Morning.







Fragile Thursday – Market Reminds Us How Quickly it can Fall

"Once I had a love and it was a gas

Soon turned out had a heart of glass

Seemed like the real thing, only to find


Mucho mistrust, love's gone behind" – Blondie

Wheeee, that was fun!  

Especially if you took our advice and shorted the Nasdaq at 12,000 yesterday as we got a lovely 50-point drop twice, followed by a 100-point drop during the day and, eventually, we hit our target at 11,800 at 4am but we were happy to take 11,850 off the table before going to bed – still good for gains of $3,000 per contract – you're welcome!  

I also said that, if the Nasdaq fails the 50-day moving average at 11,500, that we have no real support until the 200-day moving average at 10,250 – a 10% drop so let's hope I'm not on a hot streak for predictions coming true in a day.  From 12,000 to 11,800 is a 200-point drop so we're looking for 40-point bounces to 11,840 (weak) and 11,880 (strong), which is where we are at 8am so we'll see if that can be beat at the open.

If not, the next lines to watch are the bounce lines off 11,500 and that's a 500-point drop so 100-point bounces to 11,600 (weak) and 11,700 (strong) and that is how we can plan out our Futures shorts – if 11,800 fails.   Of course Congress is on vacation through Thanksgiving so there's no chance of a bailout this week or next and we're running out of Fed Speakers (see Monday's line-up) with Mester going right now (8:30) and Bowman at lunch and tomorrow it's Barkin, Bostic and Kaplan, all pre-market, but they've all already had at-bats this week and failed to deliver much encouragement.  

  • https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-barkin/feds-barkin-lets-see-how-it-goes-on-whether-more-qe-needed-idUSKBN27Y2TD?il=0

  • https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bostic-says-softer-retail-sales-data-fits-the-picture-of-a-weaker-q4-11605623744

  • Right now, the trends are in the wrong direction,” Kaplan told a virtual event for the Louisiana communities of Shreveport and Bossier City.

Kind of the opposite of helpful,…
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Why Worry Wednesday? Short-Term Portfolio Review

Still at those highs.

Trump is determined to go out with a bang so he can blame any market crash on Biden and all the stops are being pulled out to keep things afloat.  The Nasdaq was at 5,000 when Trump took office and now were up at 12,000 (up 140% in 4 years)  but it's a great short this morning (/NQ) at the 12,000 line as Apple (AAPL) just announced they will be cutting App Store fees by 50% (to 15%) for most developers.

That's going to take a bite out of earnings potential as it shows that, like NFLX, AAPL can't just keep raising rates to generate more revenue – eventually you do get blowback.  In Apple's case, they are in court with their clients as well as the Government over their billing practices.  

If AAPL goes down from it's current $2Tn Market Cap – it will certainly take the Nasdaq with it so we're shorting the 12,000 line on /NQ this morning with tight stops over the line as it's a very attractive risk-reward play.  11,800 would be a reasonable pullback target – good for $2,000 per contract on /NQ – we'll see how that plays out into this afternoon's live trading Webinar.  

Notice we've been pulling back less each time we test 12,000 – that's a very bullish pattern so we're just playing for this little pullback for the moment but, if that 50-day moving average fails (11,500) – it's a long way down (15%) to the next support at the 200-day moving average at 10,250 (by the time we get there). 

I guess this is a good time to review our new Short-Term Portfolio (STP) which we just started on 10/28 as we cashed out the old one as we had a nice dip and took full advantage.  The new STP started with $200,000 to protect what is now a $1.2M Long-Term Portfolio (see yesterday's LTP Review) though now mainly in CASH!!! as we got out of half our positions yesterday.  

Our last STP Review was way back on last Friday and we've taken a 5% hit since then as our very aggressive TZA hedge got clobbered with
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Tesla Tuesday – Musk Makes the S&P 500 and our Long-Term Portfolio Review

Tesla (TSLA) got added to the S&P 500!

The stock is taking off like a Space X rocket in Futures trading, up about 15% and boy am I glad we stopped shorting them!   Of course, now they are going to make a tempting short again as $500 is clearly ridiculous as that's about a $500Bn valuation for a car company with $25Bn in sales and about $2Bn in profits so call it 250x earnings back at the highs.  

Being in the S&P doesn't make you more valuable but it does force index fund managers to buy your crappy stock and that will give all the hedge fund manipulators who have been playing games with TSLA for years a chance to head for the exits into the volume buying spree as the index fund managers (the guys using YOUR retirement funds) are forced to buy TSLA at ridiculous prices.  See what a great scam that is? 

That's one of the great ways the rich get to force the poor to give them money.  Other fun ways are payday loans, Payroll Taxes, Unemployment Insurance, Social (in)Security, ETFs, Rental Properties, Leases, Church….  (see: "The Dooh Nibor Economy").  We've done extremely well for ourselves during this pandemic as the market has flown higher but, a week before Thanksgiving – I think the party is truly over for the year so I URGE YOU to CASH OUT any positions you don't want to see through a 20-40% correction – because that is a very likely thing in the next 3-6 months.  

Our last Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) Review was back on October 16th and, at the time, we were at a very healthy $1,070,623 – up 114% for the year.  We got very aggressive with SKT and I discussed SPWR, T and WBA as still being great new trades and those all went very well:

Other than that, we left the porftolio alone and that was a great decision as it, along with the market, has blasted higher and now we are at $1,295,033 – up 159% for the year…
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Phil's Favorites

Parler is bringing together mainstream conservatives, anti-Semites and white supremacists as the social media platform attracts millions of Trump supporters

 

Parler is bringing together mainstream conservatives, anti-Semites and white supremacists as the social media platform attracts millions of Trump supporters

Parler is similar to Twitter but doesn’t control or discourage hate speech or calls to violence. OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Image

Courtesy of Alex Newhouse, Middlebury Institute of International Studies

Since the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Parler has caught on among ...



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ValueWalk

How to Get the Best Value on a New Car Before New Year's

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Anyone who is looking to buy a new car must ensure they do their research. Buying a new car is a big investment, and the last thing you want to do is pay over the odds or end up with the wrong vehicle. So, this is never a decision that you should rush into, and you need to ensure you put plenty of thought into what you purchase before you sign on the dotted line.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

There are various steps you can take in order to do this, and you will find that there are some great deals out there, particularly in the holiday season. This means that you can get a great ...



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Zero Hedge

Gold Pukes Below $1800 As VIX Flash-Crashes To February Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Greed is good...

Fear is, apparently, a waste of time - so who needs protection.

After a mini-flash-crash this morning...

For the first time since February, VIX has dropped below 20 this morning...

Having...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

 

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

Now there is a third possible vaccine for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

The biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has released data on what is now the third promising vaccine candidate against COVID-19 – and it has several advantages over those of its competitors, ...



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Politics

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

 

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

The Trump Legal team filed more documents today in the appellate court. I tweeted a bit about how silly they were (let me know if you all want me to march through them). Then this happened:

Trump giving the go-ahead for the transition to get underway was (I believe) the closest he will get to conceding the election. Two amusing things happened. First, Trump tweeted this about 10 minutes after Emily Murphy submitted a letter saying she would move forward, and that she has made her decisions solely on her own and not at anyone’s direction. Looks like Trump wanted people to think that she was, in fact, acting at his direction.

The other amusing part was that Tr...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.