Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Behold, the power of compounding! And fall to your knees in the presence of its invincibility!

 

Behold, the power of compounding! And fall to your knees in the presence of its invincibility!

Okay, this one was really fun to make. I hope you like it. Make sure to let my bosses at CNBC know and maybe they’ll let me make more of these!

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Theresa May resigns as British prime minister – here’s where it all went wrong

 

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Theresa May resigns as British prime minister – here's where it all went wrong

Courtesy of Nicholas Allen, Royal Holloway

Europe has claimed the career of yet another Conservative prime minister. After less than three years in office, Theresa May has suffered a catastrophic loss of confidence in her leadership among MPs and cabinet ministers. She has finally faced up to the demands from within her party and announced her resignation.

Indicating her intention to step down, May said she had tried her best to deliver Brexit but accepted that she had not managed to get MPs to agree. She said she was leaving with no ill will, only “gratitude”.

She will stand down as Conservative Party leader on June 7 and the competition to replace her will formally begin the following week – though in reality, it has been underway for some time.

Indeed, May’s departure has been a long time coming. Many speculated that she couldn’t remain long in office after losing her party’s majority in the 2017 general election. In December, when facing a vote of no confidence among her MPs, she promised not to lead her party into the next general election. In March this year, in a bid to persuade more MPs to back the Brexit withdrawal agreement, she promised to leave sooner rather than later.

May’s speech.

May’s resilience has been remarkable. But it is also finite. Leaders can only lead when they have followers and too few Tories are now prepared to follow May any longer.

May’s premiership was brief but eventful. She fought a general election, faced down an internal party vote of no confidence and won a parliamentary vote of no confidence. She also lost the services of more than 30 ministers, many of whom resigned over Brexit disagreements.

Brexit means …

Much of the drama of course has been fuelled by Brexit. It launched May’s premiership in July 2016, when she succeeded David Cameron. It has been the source of most of her woes. And it has finally wrecked her premiership.

May was elected…
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As Airbnb grows, this is exactly how much it’s bringing down hotel prices and occupancy

 

As Airbnb grows, this is exactly how much it's bringing down hotel prices and occupancy

File 20190523 187165 nvs9x7.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Airbnb is a growing threat to the major hotel chains. Jonathan Weiss/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Tarik Dogru, Florida State University

Airbnb has grown exponentially since its founding in 2008 and is expected to soon go public in an initial public offering that would rank it among the world’s most valuable hotel companies.

In fact, U.S. consumers spent more money on Airbnb last year than they did on Hilton and its subsidiaries, the second-biggest hotel chain in the world, which was founded a century ago.

As an expert in hospitality management, I was curious to know precisely how all this growth has affected the hotel industry – and just how scared hotels should be.

Exponential growth

Research I recently conducted with colleagues Makarand Mody and Courtney C. Suess studied Airbnb’s impact on hotels’ performance in 10 major U.S. cities to determine how the fast-growing company has influenced three key metrics: room prices, hotel revenues and occupancy rates. Our research included data from 2008 to 2017 in Boston, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, New York, San Francisco and Seattle.

In those cities, the number of properties on Airbnb – from room shares to entire houses – surged from just 51 in its first year of operation to more to 50,000 five years later and to over half a million in 2017.

Some of this growth can be attributed to consumers’ increasing demand for authentic lodging experiences – in people’s real homes – at affordable prices.

But another important factor is the lack of regulation Airbnb faced during its first decades, which gave it more flexibility and made it easier to add new properties to its inventory.

While this is now changing as cities clamp down, this provided Airbnb with a significant competitive advantage against the hotel industry. Indeed, the typical regulatory framework in cities across America means it can take several years to…
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Friday Flip Flop – Market takes back SOME of the Losses – Still Down 5% for the Month

Up and down we go – but mostly down

We're still stuck in that range but at least we haven't failed the 200 dma – yet.  The Russell has already failed and the NYSE was on the line yesterday but recovered to hold 12,500 and this morning the Futures are up a little so it doesn't look like it will be a total catastrophe into the weekend – so we still have that to look forward to.

As you can see from our S&P 500 chart, we're stuck in a range between the 5% and 10% lines on our Big Chart as well as between the 50-day moving average and the 200 dma and whichever way this resolves itself should set the tone for the 2nd half of the year but first, it may be a summer where we drift in-between.  That's why we're so easily swayed by any news item – when you are trading between major support and resistance – it takes very little to change your course. 

We're still playing for Gasoline (/RBN19) to change it's course and we're very surprised to be losing $1,250 per contract at the moment on our long position from Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar and we now have 4 long contracts at an average entry of $1.935 with /RBN19 at $1.905 and the good news is it will be cheap to fill up our tanks ahead of the holiday weekend and the better news is we are still expecting a run up – maybe not until next week though…

Our theory is that the rollover of /RBM19 (June contract), which expires on Tuesday, is putting downward pressure on /RBN19 (July contract) and that the timing of the last EIA Report (through 5/17) failed to capture the orders for gas stations who are topping their tanks off this week – ahead of the holiday driving.  AAA expects this to be the busiest holiday driving weekens since 2005, when we were still a care-free nation who thought housing was a great investment.

The markets were high in 2005 also and they kept going higher for 3 more years before finally collapsing.  This morning, Durable Goods are down 2.1% for April but a lot of that is from BA and core Durable
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Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff

 

Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff

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Stories Discussed

Best graduation ever

Personal finance at Harvard University

Goldman acquired United Capital

WeWork urges investors to see losses as investments

All the jobs Ben didn’t get

First negative-fee ETF

Credit card delinquencies

Dead-cat bounce

Spending>Saving

Worst survey of the week

A $15 million white canvas

Make a lot of money and don’t have kids. Then you can retire early. 

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Recommendations

The Algebra of Happiness

I Will Teach You To Be Rich

Michael Lewis on HFT

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Facebook doesn’t fool me – but I worry about how it affects you

 

Facebook doesn't fool me – but I worry about how it affects you

File 20190520 69204 1q7cp6p.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

I’m safe, but you should be more careful online. Rapeepat Pornsipak/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Joseph B. Walther, University of California, Santa Barbara

A number of prominent figures have called for some sort of regulation of Facebook – including one of the company’s co-founders and a venture capitalist who was one of Facebook’s early backers.

Much of the criticism of Facebook relates to how the company’s algorithms target users with advertising, and the “echo chambers” that show users ideologically slanted content.

Despite the public criticism, the company has posted record profits. And billions of people – including more than two-thirds of American adults – continue to use the unregulated version of Facebook that exists now.

I have been studying the social dynamics of the internet for 30 years, and I suspect what’s behind these apparent contradictions is something psychological. People know about Facebook’s problems, but each person assumes he or she is largely immune – even while imagining that everyone else is very susceptible to influence. That paradox helps explain why people keep using the site – which still boasts more than 2 billion monthly average users. And ironically, it also helps explain what’s behind pressure to regulate the social media giant.

It’s not me, it’s them

The psychological tendency at work here is called “the third person effect,” the belief that media don’t fool me, and maybe don’t fool you, but all those other people are sitting ducks for media effects.

Ironically, this dynamic can encourage people to support restrictions on media consumption – by others. If someone uses, say, a social media site and feels immune to its negative influences, it triggers another psychological phenomenon called the “influence of presumed influence.” When that happens, a person worries that everyone else falls victim, and supports efforts to protect others, even if they think they themselves don’t need the protection.

This could be why there are lots of Facebook users who complain about Facebook’s danger to others, but continue using it nevertheless.

Even the…
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US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

 

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

And in recent days, the rhetoric has only gotten more heated, with President Donald Trump saying a war would be “the official end of Iran.” Iranian officials responded in kind.

But the truth is, the U.S. has been fighting a war with Iran for decades – an economic war fought via sanctions that has intensified over the past year and has already been devastating to innocent civilians in the country.

Not only that, it’s also undermining long-accepted principles of international cooperation and diplomacy, a topic I’ve been researching for the past 25 years.

Carrots and sticks

Many nations have recognized that sanctions work best as tools of persuasion rather than punishment.

Sanctions by themselves rarely succeed in changing the behavior of a targeted state. They are often combined with diplomacy in a carrots-and-sticks bargaining framework designed to achieve negotiated solutions.

Indeed the offer to lift sanctions can be a persuasive inducement in convincing a targeted regime to alter its policies, as was the case when successful negotiations involving the U.S. and Europe led to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, which ended sanctions in exchange for Tehran shutting down much of its nuclear production capacity.

A year ago Trump withdrew the U.S. from that accord and not only re-imposed previous sanctions but added further restrictions, including so-called secondary sanctions that penalize other countries for continuing to trade with Iran.

In 2006, sanctions against Iran were multilateral in nature, which made them more effective. AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

Multilateral vs. unilateral sanctions

In an increasingly globalized world, unilateral sanctions like these – in which one country goes it alone – are rarely effective at achieving their end result, which in this case is regime…
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Getting ready for hurricane season: 4 essential reads

 

Getting ready for hurricane season: 4 essential reads

File 20190520 69178 j9m7hf.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Debris in a boatyard in Mexico Beach, Fla., on Oct. 11, 2018, after Hurricane Michael heavily damaged the town. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File

Courtesy of Jennifer Weeks, The Conversation

The official Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, even as many communities are still recovering from a destructive year in 2018. Hurricane Florence swamped much of the Carolinas in September, followed by Hurricane Michael, which battered the Florida Panhandle less than a month later. Together, these two storms killed at least 113 people and caused billions of dollars in damages.

Early forecasts for 2019 have predicted a slightly below-normal season, with 13 named storms expected to form and two of them developing into major hurricanes. But as the forecasters warn, it only takes one storm making landfall to make it an active season for people in harm’s way. Here are five expert takes on preparing for whatever the 2019 hurricane season brings.

1. How forecasters make predictions

We rely on expert forecasters to tell us how strong hurricanes will be, the odds that they will make landfall and where they’re most likely to come ashore. But how do stormcasters develop judgments from enormous quantities of data?

As Florida State University meteorologists Mark Bourassa and Vasu Misra explain, models – complex software packages that run on large computers – are essential. But models’ results don’t always agree with each other. That’s why forecasters use collections of storm models instead of just one. And they may tweak certain assumptions built into the models to account for uncertainty about conditions in a particular storm.

Storm track forecasts have become much more accurate in recent decades, but predictions of storm intensity have changed little. That’s because it’s hard to capture all the variables that determine storm intensity. “Models are inexact in their descriptions of the entire state of the atmosphere and ocean at the start time of the model,” Bourassa and Misra acknowledge – a point worth remembering if a storm heads in your direction.

Improving hurricane forecasts means testing historical storms


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The Constitution dictates that impeachment must not be partisan

 

The Constitution dictates that impeachment must not be partisan

File 20190522 187169 9ralbi.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

President Donald Trump arriving at the Rose Garden, May 22, 2019, in Washington. AP/Evan Vucci

Courtesy of Peter Brandon Bayer, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Barely two decades since the impeachment of Bill Clinton, the people of the United States again are confronting the possibility that their president, now Donald Trump, could be impeached, meaning charged by the House of Representatives with offenses that, if proved in a Senate trial, would remove him from office.

Not surprisingly, politics have pervaded the debate.

Many, perhaps most, assume that impeachment of a president should be, or inevitably will devolve into a political melee. The few historic examples that exist show political motivations – to varying degrees – in the impeachment proceedings against Presidents Johnson, Nixon and Clinton.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told The Washington Post in March that “impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path.”

House Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is against impeaching the president. AP/J. Scott Applewhite

Most Democratic leaders don’t want impeachment, at least at this point, fearing a political backlash in 2020 if they pursue impeachment. Some believe that if impeached in the House and tried and acquitted by the Senate, Trump’s political popularity will skyrocket like Bill Clinton’s did after his impeachment in 1998.

Nonetheless, impeachment supporters in the House now number, according to The New York Times, “roughly two dozen.” House and Senate Democratic leaders are facing increased calls by a growing number of colleagues to begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

To date, only one Republican has joined the chorus, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash.

Other Republicans – supporters of President Trump – accuse Democrats of using impeachment to overturn the 2016 presidential election.

Politics now characterize the serious issue of whether Trump has obstructed justice and committed other offenses worthy of his removal from office.…
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Faltering Thursday (Again) – Trump Tantrum Spooks Markets

The President is losing it.

Yesterday, he invited the House and Senate Democrats to meet with him to discuss Infrastructure and they had been discussing $2Tn worth of it but, when they showed up, Trump demanded they drop their investigations or he would not spend any money on Infrastructure – even though it's something America desperately needs action on.

Trump is not above holding America hostage to get what he wants – he shut the Goverment down for 35 days last year just to get funding for his wall and, so far, $1.57Bn has bought America 1.7 Miles of fence.  President Donald Trump also commented on the progress of the wall construction on Twitter Wednesday, saying “tremendous work is being done.”  

The Democrats did not agree to stop investingating Russian Interference into the US Elections which happens to also include potential charges of collusion and obstruction of justice on behalf of the President and his inner circle.  One could say Trump's actions yesterday were obviously yet another attempt to obstruct justice by threatening people involved in an ongoing investigation but, regarless of that – this man is clearly not acting rationally and, unfortunately, he's our President.  

It's interesting that Trump is complaining about the Mueller Investigation costing $35M (his estimate, not a fact) when Trump has spent $102M of the taxpayers' money playing golf in the past two years – and that is a FACT.  In fact, Mueller has already collected $47M in fines so there's a $12M+ PROFIT from the investigation, not to mention that there have already been 37 people indicted for criminal activity including 26 Russians who interferred with our Democracy and, so far, 7 people have already pled guilty, including several who were serving directly under the President.   

I know people don't like to talk about politics on investing sites but this is serious stuff, folks!  When this happened yesterday I told our Members to "GET OUT!!!" of the markets as this was clearly going to lead to some serious selling as, if nothing else, we have a completely dysfunctional government which will be doing nothing to address many, many critical things AND we're on a…
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Zero Hedge

Latest China Tariffs Will Cost American Households $831 Per Year, Fed Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It's tempting to believe President Trump's insistence that Chinese companies will bear the costs of US tariffs, but as a chorus of emergent trade experts have pointed out, this simply isn't true.

American consumers will bear at least some of the costs of the new tariffs, though the extent will depend on how companies react to the new taxes (that is, whether they will pass it on to consumers, tolerate the gross margin hit, or decide to rejigger their supply chains).

...



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Phil's Favorites

Theresa May resigns as British prime minister - here's where it all went wrong

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Theresa May resigns as British prime minister – here's where it all went wrong

Courtesy of Nicholas Allen, Royal Holloway

Europe has claimed the career of yet another Conservative prime minister. After less than three years in office, Theresa May has suffered a catastrophic loss of confidence in her leadership among MPs and cabinet ministers. She has finally faced up to the demands from within her party and announced her resignation.

Indicating her intention to step down, May said she ha...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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