Global Return August 2018 Commentary: Thinking Differently
by ValueWalk - September 18th, 2018 12:26 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Global Return Asset Management commentary for the month ended August 31, 2018; discussing Yahoo’s business model.
Dear Friends,
For the month of August, we generated a net return of 2.09%.1 We ended the month with 18% of assets in cash and had a net market exposure of 29%.
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Below is a new section we’re calling…
Think Differently
The purpose of this section is to bring a different perspective to the everyday conversations happening around the investment industry. My goal is to offer you a different, and hopefully sometimes comical, perspective on investing. So here goes…
Identifying Outsized Opportunity
In 1995, the dawn of a new era was born – that’s when the world was introduced to “online search.”
Within this burgeoning industry, Yahoo quickly became the big cheese. The company was attracting a then-unfathomable 100 million daily page views, its revenue was doubling, and within two years of going public – which it did a mere one year after being founded – its stock had climbed 600%.
And yet, Yahoo’s business model was simple: attract users to its portal and pump content so they would stay within their walled garden of entertainment. To generate revenue, third-party marketers paid the company to post those bright-flashing banner ads that were impossible to avoid.
With its easy business model and the eye-popping returns, competition soon followed and they all emulated Yahoo’s playbook. Except for one.
This lone outcast was the 18th startup to enter the crowded field of online search. And its business model was the exact opposite of every other company – it wanted to attract users to its portal and then re-route them to other websites as quickly as possible. With its unusual business model and late start, investment analysts thought the outsider didn’t understand this industry.
As more companies entered the space, Silicon Valley began steaming with competition. And what do industry heavyweights do when that happens? They buy competitors. So, Yahoo approached this black-sheep-company and offered to buy it. But with a $5 billion-dollar price tag, Yahoo balked and walked.
By now you’ve probably guessed that little competitor is named Google.
Now fast forward 18 years to 2016. That’s the year Yahoo was acquired by Verizon…
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A Greek court extended an injunction to protect short seller target Folli Follie’s assets from creditors
by ValueWalk - September 18th, 2018 11:14 am
By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.
What the activism world is talking about
Mario Cibelli’s Marathon Partners Equity Management sent a letter to the board of cosmetics company e.l.f. Beauty last week, urging the firm to refocus on core operations or sell the company. In the letter, the activist claimed the board lacked urgency and that investment firm TPG Growth’s interests are overrepresented in the boardroom.
The activist explained that TPG’s influence is shaping the board’s agenda to benefit the investment firm at the expense of the company’s broader shareholder base. Marathon wants e.l.f. to add new board members who aren’t affiliated with TPG. The firm believes this will bring a new perspective to the boardroom on discussions regarding shareholder value.
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
The activist investor also said executive compensation is excessive in the context of the current results and poor share price performance. Marathon demanded the board cut back on executive compensation to further reduce overheads.
What we’ll be watching for this week
- Will Tartisan Nickel shareholders vote in favor of Belgravia Capital’s majority slate so that the activist investor can delist the company’s shares?
- The second round of offers for Athenahealth started yesterday. Will the firm receive any bids that top Elliott Management’s $160 per share takeover proposal advanced earlier this year?
- Will shareholders vote to change Macquarie Korea’s manager, as proposed by activist investor Platform Partners?
Activist shorts update
A Greek court extended an injunction to protect short seller target Folli Follie’s assets from creditors, as the jewelry company continues to face regulatory scrutiny over the accuracy of its finances. A group of creditors has been trying to get the injunction lifted to settle loans, but the company is seeking to instead reach an arrangement with them and produce a restructuring plan once the financial audit is over.
The injunction was put in place after activist short seller Quintessential Capital Management accused the company of vastly overstating the size of its Chinese business. The short seller said that the company’s business in China may be worth $50 million instead of $1 billion as it had claimed, kick-starting an independent review into the company’s finances by the Greek market watchdog.
To arrange an online demonstration of Activist Insight Shorts, email us or…
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Wilbur Ross Says China Has Run Out Of Ammo In (Trade) War [FULL TRANSCRIPT]
by ValueWalk - September 18th, 2018 10:11 am
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
CNBC Transcript: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Today
WHEN: Today, Tuesday, September 18, 2018
WHERE: CNBC’s “Squawk Box”
[REITs]
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Joe kernen: president trump announcing tariffs on $200 billion in chinese goods. Joining us now from washington, squawk newsmaker, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Mr. Commerce secretary, thanks for joining us today. Do you — we’ve been talking about these tariffs and an off-ramp, and how it finally works. The markets are up today – the equity markets, although they were off a little bit yesterday. We are trying to understand the response on whether the markets don’t believe it’s going to be long lasting or whether, as the president said yesterday, there hasn’t been large effects on prices at this point. But how do you see it? How long is this going to last? Will the worst-case scenario come to pass or is this all a bargaining ploy?
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: well, there’s a whole lot of questions in that. But the purpose of the tariffs is to modify china’s behavior. Especially in technology transfers and other abuse of tactics such as subsidies and market limitations. The real purpose is not to end up with tariffs. The real purpose is to end up with a level playing field so that American firms can compete properly.
Kernen: who speaks for the administration right now, Wilbur? I mean, who would I ask about the ongoing negotiations? Is it Treasury Secretary Mnuchin? Is — other people say Navarro has got a lot of sway into the president’s mind. You’re there. What’s — is it a — is everyone putting their heads together? How is it working?
Ross: it’s very much a collaborative effort. We meet at least once a week as a trade group. And we meet at least once a week in the oval with the president. So this is not a rash thing. This is a carefully thought through exercise. And that’s why, as you know, the original list had some 6,000 items on it. Now it’s been trimmed. And the reason it got trimmed is we had six days of public hearings, there were 350 witnesses testifying, and we had over 6,000 submissions, ideas about which products to add…
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The Heatwave And The Storm: Managing Investor Sentiment In The Changing PE Market
by ValueWalk - September 17th, 2018 1:38 pm
By Ian Kelly (Augentius). Originally published at ValueWalk.
The heatwave that has gripped much of the Northern hemisphere over the summer months provides a neat metaphor for the current state of the global real estate and PE market. Just as Europe and North America have sweltered under record temperatures and aridity, ‘very hot and exceedingly dry’ more or less summarizes the state of the alternative investment market.
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Despite a slight ebb in Q2 of 2018, firms are raising money at a pace and level not seen since before the financial crash. According to Preqin, 2017 saw a massive 20 per cent increase in funds under management, the highest rate of annual growth ever recorded by the analyst, bringing the industry’s total AUM to over three trillion USD. The average fundraising period has now fallen to 12 months, half of what it was in 2010.
This is all quite understandable considering that the industry has frequently posted double-digit returns in a post-crash era marked by a paucity of yield. However, it has led to a situation where the flow of money is fairly one-way. The amount of ‘dry powder’ has increased in lockstep with AUM growth, rising 24 per cent in 2017 to a record level of 1.1 trillion USD – with some estimates putting the figure as high as 1.5 trillion. The trend has become self-perpetuating: fund managers have more and more capital, with less and less attractive options for spending it, which only pushes deal values higher, continuing the cycle.
As such, and despite the overall buoyancy of the sector, firms may be about to enter into a tricky phase which will take skill to navigate. Paper gains are all very well and good, but ultimately don’t mean anything until they convert to actual gains via exits. The risk now is that the fierce competition for investment opportunities will inflate deal valuations to the point of seriously impacting returns. And while this might be a short term phase to allow for market rebalancing, investors who are used to outperformance from the sector – or have recently moved into the sector, drawn by the allure of double digit returns – may find such a dip difficult to…
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Whitney Tilson Goes There Again, Predicts Bitcoin To Fall To $4k
by ValueWalk - September 16th, 2018 1:15 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Excerpted from Whitney Tilson’s latest email to colleagues entitled “Videos & slides from seminars; upcoming webinar; make a name for yourself; crypto; Griffin”
Also see Whitney Tilson’s prior bitcoin predictions
1) We’ve posted both our slides and videos from our two seminars last week:
- An Introduction to Value Investing: slides (including updated ones on Berkshire Hathaway, Google and Facebook) and the 127-minute video of the event
- Understanding Financial Statements: slides and the 147-minute video of the event.
2) We only got through half of our material on Understanding Financial Statements on Thursday (defining and explaining the major line items of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement), so we’ve scheduled a two-hour follow-up webinar during which we’ll show how to do basic analyses of the financial statements, calculating growth rates, margins, EBIT, EBITDA, current and quick ratios, debt to equity ratio, return on equity and free cash flow. Lastly, we will show how the financial statements tell a story about a company, how a company is raising and allocating capital, and potential warning flags. It will be on Thursday, September 20 from 5:30-7:30pm ET. Registration is now open.
ValueWalk readers Pease use “VW10” for a discount!
3) A friend of mine who’s run a fund for nearly a decade asked me:
“Have you found a repeatable way to meet potential LP's in the high-net-worth space (doctors, lawyers, etc.)? I think it would add a ton of value to figure that out.”
Here was the reply I sent him:
I built my entire business (which peaked at $200M in assets) on HNW investors – others I can think of who’ve done this well include Mohnish Pabrai, Guy Spier and Sahm Adrangi. Here are some things one or more of us did/do:
- We write a lot – articles, emails, books (we’re all good writers and teachers, have strong opinions, etc.)
- Host
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Crescat Capital: China “The mother of all credit bubbles” Is Bursting
by ValueWalk - September 15th, 2018 8:28 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Crescat Capital Q2 letter to investors on the China credit bubble and why its a good short.
Our current three best macro ideas today are complementary plays on the unwinding of currency and financial asset bubbles at a likely peak of a global capital cycle, the most leveraged in history:
- Shorting US stocks at proven, historic-high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals with abundant catalysts for a near-term bear market leading to a US recession;
- Shorting the overvalued and weakening Chinese yuan and China contagion plays to express the unwinding of a credit bubble that is unprecedented in scale and already bursting; and
- Buying precious metals commodities at record deep value compared to the global fiat monetary base and related miners at record cheapness to the underlying fundamentals with an increasing number of important new signals showing rising US and global inflationary pressures and a hamstrung Federal Reserve that is unable to stop them.
…………………..
China Credit Currency and Credit Bust
While the mother of all financial asset bubbles is represented by US stocks and credit today, China represents the mother of all credit bubbles based on its massively overvalued currency and banking system.
In June, we showed how Crescat can perform as the China credit bubble just started to burst. Crescat Global Macro Fund was one of the top hedge funds through June YTD thanks to our significant yuan short position and other China credit bust plays. We strongly believe there is so much more to play out, especially with respect to China’s currency devaluation.
China has been the fastest growing major GDP economy in the world, contributing over 50% of global GDP growth since the Global Financial Crisis. But the China miracle has all been accomplished by unsustainable debt growth, non-productive capital investment, and a massive hidden non-performing loan problem. China’s NPLs are estimated at close to USD 10 trillion according to one respected China credit analyst, Charlene Chu, at Autonomous Research. Our analysis concurs. We published our most in-depth China credit bubble research letter last year and we believe that China is now entering a recession that would occur with or without Donald Trump’s trade war which is hastening it.
As shown…
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The Pricing War Among Asset Managers Heads To Zero
by ValueWalk - September 15th, 2018 5:15 pm
By Sweeny Kumar. Originally published at ValueWalk.
The U.S. financial market has undergone a gradual change over time as the financial markets have seen a higher influx of e-brokers. These e-brokers have several advantages over traditional brokers. However, they also face a few challenges, which means they face strong competition.
Broadly, e-brokers offer a better value proposition and provide a lot of business to asset managers. Having said that, e-brokers are reaching the top of the rising rates, and the circumstances make it harder for them to make money in a highly competitive environment.
On the other hand, if brokers and asset managers work together and enter into self-indexing at low price points, the competition can effectively be dealt with. It will give both asset managers and brokers the upper hand over index providers.
Sneak peek into the new launches by JPMorgan and Fidelity and the implications
JPMorgan e-Broker launch
JPMorgan is launching a new e-broker service that is priced very competitively. Customers will get 100 free trades the first year, and those whose balance remains higher than $15,000 will have free trades available to them in the second year as well. The e-broker service offers a low trading commission rate of $2.95 and also supports automatic portfolio building.
This new launch will make the market all the more competitive. Other brokers like Schwab may also lower their commission rates. This will make the environment more difficult for the already-competitive e-broker market, and making a profit is expected to become riskier.
Fidelity Zero-Fee Index Fund launch
Meanwhile, Fidelity has also launched two zero-fee index mutual funds. These are the United States’ first zero-fee funds. Fidelity has also lowered its expense ratio on numerous other funds, pushing the average management fee for its funds down 35%.
The zero-fee index funds are being marketed as mutual funds and are only available through Fidelity’s brokerage platform. It plans to offset the loss from not charging a fee for those funds by increasing its securities lending revenue. However, competitors like BlackRock and Vanguard do not have the option to compensate for losses through alternative sources of income.
Overall, the zero-fee fund launch is expected to lead to organic growth for Fidelity and will also benefit partners like BlackRock, which has a substantial share on its platform. However, the move may lead to more challenges…
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KHC: Kraft And Heinz Merger Fails On Most Basic Metric
by ValueWalk - September 14th, 2018 4:19 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Summary:
- KHC failed to deliver against the most important financial objectives outlined at the merger: Free Cash Flow.
- The outlook for future performance is bleak: among the large cap global food companies, KHC has the worst performance, the weakest balance sheet and it is the most expensive stock.
- Engage in any M&A at this point is non-sense and can result in nothing but value destruction to shareholders.
- KHC target price is $36 per share.
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Catalysts:
1) Revenue continues to decline, 2) Margin continues to decline as KHC needs to increase investments in brands and products to face the industry challenges, 3) Investors push for greater transparency and stop accepting high non-recurring EBITDA and EPS adjustments into the reported results, 4) Net debt continues to grow increasing KHC cost of debt and the company faces a downgrade by credit agencies to high yield debt, 4) KHC cuts dividends to stop debt growth, 5) KHC overpays for an acquisition and either increases debt or dilutes existing shareholders issuing more stock, 6) Continued stock insider selling by 3G Capital, the management and possibly Berkshire Hathaway (which together own ~50% of KHC shares). 7) Investors realize the high valuations that KHC stock trades both on absolute levels and compared to peers.
Mr. Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway 2016 Annual Report:
“We have never, however, singled out restructuring charges and told you to ignore them in estimating our normal earning power. If there were to be some truly major expenses in a single year, I would, of course, mention it in my commentary. Indeed, when there is a total rebasing of a business, such as occurred when Kraft and Heinz merged, it is imperative that for several years the huge one-time costs of rationalizing the combined operations be explained clearly to owners. That’s precisely what the CEO of Kraft Heinz has done, in a manner approved by the company’s directors (who include me). But, to tell owners year after year, “Don’t count this,” when management is simply making business adjustments that are necessary, is misleading. And too many analysts and journalists fall…
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Jeff Bezos On Amazon, Media, Trump, World Domination And More At The Economic Club Of Washington
by ValueWalk - September 14th, 2018 1:46 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Thursday September 13th 2018 – the world’s richest man with a $150 billion fortune Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos participates in the Milestone Celebration Dinner at the Economic Club of Washington in Washington, D.C.
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Jeff Bezos At The Economic Club Of Washington
Transcript
You know I have been lecturing you have all hands meetings that AM has done for 20 years ever since we’ve been for 21 years now in 1997 almost every all hands meeting. I said look when the stock is up 30 percent in a month don’t feel 30 percent smarter.
Because when the stock is down 30 percent in a month it’s not going to feel so good to be 30 percent dumber. And that’s what happened.
You know the great quote that Warren Buffet brings up all the time but Benjamin Graham said which is that in the short run the stock market is a voting machine. In the long run it’s a weighing machine and what you need to do is operate your company in such a way knowing that it will be weighed one day and just let it be weighed never spent any time thinking about the daily stock price. I don’t.
OK. So as a result of going up 70 percent this year you have become. The wealthiest man in the world. It is a title that you really want or not.
Is in I can assure you I have never sought that title. And it was fine being the second wealthiest person in the world that actually worked fine. It’s not it is a day. I would say it’s something people naturally are curious about. You know it’s kind of an interesting curiosity but it’s not. The thing I would much rather if they said like you know inventor Jeff Bezos or entrepreneur Jeff Bezos or you know.
Father Jeff are those kinds of things are much more meaningful to me and the you know the it’s an output measure. If you look at the financial success of Amazon and the stock I own 16 percent of Amazon. Amazon is worth roughly a trillion dollars. That means that what we have built over 20 years we have built…
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These 10 REITs Gained Over 10% In 2018
by ValueWalk - September 14th, 2018 12:42 pm
By WealthLAB. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Realty Trusts (or REIT’s) continue to remain popular among investors. Over 90% of REIT’s have higher dividend yields compared to the average S&P 500 company.
Realty Trusts to follow in 2018
Similar to stocks, REIT’s need to be held over a long period of time for them to generate substantial returns. Here are 10 REITs that gained 10% in 2018.
[REITs]
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
1. Arbor Realty Trust [ABR]
Arbor Realty Trust [ABR] is a REIT that engages in the provision of loan origination and servicing across senior housing, healthcare, multifamily, and commercial asset verticals.
ABR has a market cap of $2.4B and has gained over 50% in 2018, primarily driven by robust sales and earnings growth.
Which no doubt puts a smile on CEO Ivan Kaufman’s (pictured) face.
Dividend Yield: 9.5%
Total Gain: $800M
2018 % Gain: 50%
2. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance [ARI]
A mortgage REIT, ARI acquires and invests in commercial real estate mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other real-estate debt instruments. ARI has a market cap of $2.4B and has gained 10.3% in 2018.
Even better, ARI has beaten analyst estimates in two of the last four quarters.
Dividend Yield: 9.5%
Total Gain: $225M
2018 % Gain: 10.3%
3. Blackstone Mortgage Trust [BXMT]
The Blackstone Mortgage Trust engages in originating senior loans collateralized by commercial real estate. This REIT aims to protect shareholder value and produce risk-adjusted returns through dividends.
BXMT has a market cap of $4B and has gained close to 11% in 2018. The share price has been driven upwards as BXMT managed to beat earnings estimates coupled with robust revenue growth.
Dividend Yield: 7.2%
Total Gain: $360M
2018 Return: 10.8%
4. Chesapeake Lodging Trust [CHSP]
The Chesapeake Lodging Trust manages and operates hotels. It has an enviable portfolio including The Royal Palm, Hyatt Regency, Le Meridien, JW Marriott, Hotel Adagio, Ace Hotel, Hilton Checkers, Homewood Suites, and Hotel Indigo.
In July 2018, CHSP closed the sale on the Hyatt Centric Santa Barbara, a 200-room hotel, for $90M. CHSP’s gained over 24% in market value in 2018 alone. It currently has a market cap of $2.02B (and growing).
Dividend Yield: 4.8%
Total Gain: $380M
2018 % Gain: 24.2%
5. CyrusOne [CONE]
CyrusOne owns, develops and operates enterprise-class, carrier-neutral,…
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