Whitney Tilson’s Stock Idea Of The Day, Naspers
by ValueWalk - March 26th, 2019 6:18 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing his new Stock Idea of the Day, Naspers; Tom Russo; the only perfect bracket; debate on expelling students; question 6.
1) Today’s Stock Idea of the Day is Naspers, a South African company whose stock trades both on the Johannesburg stock exchange as well as in the U.S. via an ADR under the ticker NPSNY. The stock has been a monster, as you can see from this 10-year chart:
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
It has long been a favorite of my colleague Dr. Steve Sjuggerud at Stansberry Research, who gave an update on it in his free DailyWealth newsletter this morning. Excerpt:
For years, I have told my readers two things:
- Little-known Tencent (TCEHY) will be the world’s largest company someday.
- Little-known Naspers (NPSNY) is the best way to play it.
Now, both of these stories are taking a giant step forward. And it means the value of these companies can finally soar to its true potential.
Let me explain…
Tencent, in short, is China’s most important company. It “owns” your screen time in China…
Whether you are messaging with friends on its WeChat app, watching the NBA, playing online video games, or paying for stuff, Tencent is number one – and there is no number two. As Tencent moves toward monetizing WeChat, I believe it will become the world’s largest company.
Tencent is already worth more than $400 billion today, making it the world’s eighth-largest company by market value, ahead of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Walmart (WMT) in ninth and 10th place.
But who owns the biggest chunk of Tencent? If you’re new to my work, the answer might surprise you…
The largest owner of Tencent stock – by far – is a little-known South Africa-listed tech company called Naspers.
Naspers owns about $130 billion worth of Tencent stock (in addition to stakes in dozens of other tech businesses).
…As I write, the market value of Naspers is less than $100 billion. Keep in mind, Naspers owns a stake in Tencent worth roughly…
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Tesla Doing A Fleet Sale Or Some Other Channel-Stuffing
by ValueWalk - March 26th, 2019 4:50 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Anton Wahlman’s comment on Tesla doing a fleet sale or some other channel-stuffing.
1) Anton Wahlman’s latest article: My Q1 Unit Sales Estimate For Tesla: 60,828, Down 33% From Q4. Summary:
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
- We are mere days away from March quarter-end, and more automobile unit sales data keeps pouring in, especially from Europe.
- I have revised my Tesla unit sales estimate for Q1, primarily because of changes to a majority of the European countries, plus the U.S.
- There are no material changes to the Model X and S sales estimates, regardless of geography.
- The total quarterly unit estimate now stands at 60,828, which would be down 33% from Tesla’s Q4 2018 unit sales number of 90,966.
- Among the areas where I could still be wrong, would be Tesla doing a fleet sale or some other channel-stuffing “financially delivered” exercise, including to a related party.
Anton added in an email to me:
Take a quick look at this freshly posted February sales chart from China:
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/03/china-february-2019.html
That’s the top-20 from BEVs and PHEVs combined. Only one car on that list is known in the West — the Volkswagen Passat GTE.
As for Tesla, it hasn’t had a car on China’s top-20 plugin list in a very long time. That may change now in March, as a result of the Model 3. In my model, I have assumed 300 units for February and 3,000 for March. For the Model S, 300 per month and for the Model X, 400 per month. Those are guesses, but judging from the numbers posted by the 20th nameplate on that list, they seem reasonable to me.
Maybe the Model 3 turns out to be a barn-burner for Tesla in China, but I don’t dare assign any higher numbers on that than I have in my model already — 300 for February and 3,000 for March.
The Chinese plugin market is “big” — but it’s also totally different than the American and European markets. It’s easy for both longs and shorts to be off by quite a bit here. All that…
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Sports Direct’s Requisition Offer To Debenhams, Appoint Ashley As CEO
by ValueWalk - March 26th, 2019 11:44 am
By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.
British retailer Sports Direct requisitioned a meeting at department store Debenhams last week, proposing the removal of all current board members, apart from Rachel Osborne, and the appointment of its CEO, Mike Ashley. The activist explained that the requisition replaced that of earlier this month, which was invalid because Sports Direct at the time held its shares through a third party. In the initial requisition, Ashley said he would carry out an executive role at Debenhams, if appointed, and would leave his CEO and director roles at Sports Direct. The investor did not elaborate on this claim in the most recent announcement.
The requisition came a week after Sports Direct offered an interest-free 150-million-pound loan to the struggling department store chain, on the condition that Ashley be appointed CEO. In exchange for the funding, Sports Direct would take an additional 5% stake in the company. Debenhams directors previously rejected a 40-million-pound cash bailout offer advanced by Ashley, but later agreed on a cash injection from lenders.
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Under the terms of the proposed Sports Direct loan, the sporting goods retailer would increase its stake in Debenhams to 35%, without needing to bid for the remainder of the company. Takeover Panel rules require shareholders with 30% or more of a company to bid for the whole group, but this can be avoided via a “whitewash agreement,” which must then be approved by shareholders.
What We’ll Be Watching For This Week
- Will Telecom Italia shareholders stick to Elliott Management’s status quo or sway towards Vivendi’s proposed five-person slate on Friday?
- Will shareholders finally get to vote on the proposed three-way merger between Medley Capital, Sierra Income, and Medley Management on Friday?
- How will Sweden’s Lundin Petroleum shareholders react to Egbert Wesselink’s proposals demanding the resignation of the board of directors and senior management at the annual meeting on Friday?
Activist Shorts Update
Canadian insurer Manulife Financial won a legal victory over hedge fund Mosten Investment, allowing it to limit payments due as part of a contract with the investor. Mosten had previously argued that it was entitled to a guaranteed rate of return on…
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Tesla’s Massive Increase In Delivery Volume In Europe And China
by ValueWalk - March 25th, 2019 3:12 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing a few good posts on Tesla on the VIC message board about the massive increase in delivery volume in Europe and China.
41 – jcoviedo – 3 days 2 hrs ago
Re: Re: Re: Several bullish points
40
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Elon leaked to Business Insider the company email about upcoming delivery hell. Why a company delivers over ½ of its quarter in the last week is beyond me. Obviously this is being leaked b/c prior pumps the past few weeks have all failed.
“For the last ten days of the quarter, please consider your primary priority to be helping with vehicle deliveries. This applies to everyone. As challenges go, this is a good one to have, as we’ve built the cars and people have bought the cars, so we just need to get the cars to their new owners!
What has made this particularly difficult is that Europe and China are simultaneously experiencing the same massive increase in delivery volume that North America experienced last year. In some locations, the delivery rate is over 600% higher than its previous peak! This was further exacerbated by supplier shortages of EU spec components and a sticker printing error on our part in China that were only resolved in the past few weeks.
North America is also stressed, as the final month of this quarter is almost all North America builds. Moreover, for the first two weeks of march most cars were sent from our factory in California to the East Coast to ensure arrival before the end of the quarter.
The net result is a massive wave of deliveries needed throughout Europe, China and North America. This is the biggest wave in Tesla’s history, but it is primarily a function of our first delivery of mass manufactured cars on two continents simultaneously, and will not be repeated in subsequent quarters.
To help, please contact Sanjay Shah in North America, Robin Ren in China and Ashley Harris in Europe.”
Who is the intended audience for this email? I doubt you would send…
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Whitney Tilson – There Is A 28% Chance Of Brexit By The End Of April
by ValueWalk - March 25th, 2019 2:02 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing short & distort?; a short-seller’s email; Tesla’s VIN gap; chance of Brexit; Do You Pull the Parchment?; question 5.
1) A thoughtful, in-depth look at a fascinating case study that raises important issues: Short & distort? The ugly war between CEOs and activist critics. Excerpt:
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
The stand-off reflects a broader debate over how to balance the desire to keep public companies accountable with concerns over market manipulation.
Short selling, said to be as old as stock markets, used to be a low-profile affair where bearish investors relied on the media, analysts or regulators to take the lead in exposing over-valued companies. New tools such as Twitter and Seeking Alpha changed that, creating a small but prominent group of brash public activists.
My view is that the rise of short sellers who are willing to go public with their work is, overall, an incredibly healthy development for our markets.
Might a few of them be spreading information that they know to be false and then trading around it to try to make a quick buck? Sure – though this would be insane in light of the risks.
But so what? This is a drop in the ocean relative to the FAR bigger problem of CEOs lying to investors, trying to pump up their stocks so they can cash in. That’s what the SEC should focus on…
2) Speaking of short sellers, in Thursday’s email, I wrote:
A friend forwarded me a 33-slide presentation on Tesla (TSLA), Detecting “Potential” Fraud in Real-Time, that Tom Bachrach of PFH Capital gave on Tuesday to UPenn Wharton students. You can download it here.
I don’t know him or his firm, but it’s an outstanding piece of analysis, especially the forensic accounting part that begins on page 17, which captures why I think there’s at least a 50% chance of significant fraud at the company. Pay particular attention to the “VIN Gap” he discusses on slides 28-29.
[For more on Tesla's VIN gap, see this thread by @TeslaCharts.]
In response, Tom sent me this nice email, in which he shares some…
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Is Tesla’s New Enhanced Summon Feature A National Security Risk?
by ValueWalk - March 25th, 2019 12:18 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Tesla‘s enhanced summon feature and why the company’s stock is likely to drift down.
Discussion on Tesla’s Enhanced Summon feature
One of my friends (who’s bullish on Tesla) sent me a link to this web page, Watch this Tesla Model 3 drive to its owner on Enhanced Summon in latest video, which has two videos of Model 3 owners summoning their cars from a parking lot.
In response, another friend (who’s bearish) wrote: Watch this one try to drive the owner into a construction barrier: http://digg.com/2019/tesla-autopilot-crash”
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
To which friend 1 wrote:
People kill themselves every day driving regular old fashioned cars just being themselves (horrible drivers). ~90% of accidents are due to human error (and we are actually getting worse with added distractions from smart phones). I think Tesla’s autopilot is already better on highways than the average driver (a low bar) and I have no doubt it will get WAY better eventually and save a lot of lives.
But that wasn’t the point of the advanced summon video. It’s a bit of a useless fun feature that is going to sell A TON of cars. People will buy it just to have this and the other automakers won’t offer this because: 1) They probably won’t have this type of capability for years; and 2) They’ll think it’s stupid because they just don’t get it…
In response, Anton Wahlman wrote:
First, watch this scene from the movie “Telefon” (1977):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbxIyjecJgw
For reference, here is the official movie trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPVVPhD1NKQ
Now, with that as background material, here is the argument: The ability to remote-control a car will not be more allowed than your ability to remote-control a drone, which is already very restricted and is likely to become even more restricted in the future.
A remote-controlled car is basically a land-based drone with a 4,000 lbs payload, instead of 4 lbs.
We carefully guard our airports, military bases and city centers from drone use. There is basically a blanket ban on operating a drone within X…
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Moody’s Issue Report Citing Corporate Debt Levels Vulnerability
by ValueWalk - March 25th, 2019 8:20 am
By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Downgrades of corporate debt levels are rising in Corporate America as interest rates remain stable
Moody issues a report that adds to the increasing sobering news facing corporate America. As word of earnings forecasts being reduced pervade, there is concern regarding corporate debt levels. Increased credit downgrades do not bode well for current market trends.
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Since the start of 2019, Moody’s data claims that the amount of credit downgrades in corporate America has outpaced the number of upgrades. The current figure stands at 94 downgrades versus 75 upgrades, establishing a ratio of 0.77. This news appears to show indications of a trend as last year’s fourth quarter also had mounting downgrades and a ratio of 0.79.
U.S non-financial companies have managed to possess almost four times the earnings before interest and taxes to cover interest expense, as indicated by a Federal Reserve Study. Despite this, corporate debt levels have reached a staggering 70% of gross domestic product.-A figure higher than 2007’s, before the great recession struck.
An increasing number of corporate issues are rated as junk or near junk status. Data from Moody’s Capital Markets Research shows a record $2.96 trillion issues are rated Baa. This is the level just before the high-yield mark. Current issues at this level make up 48.5% of all investment-grade bonds. The condition doesn’t appear too periling as year-end defaults for 2018 total a lowly 2.4%. Nevertheless, this seemingly calm situation can go bad very quickly. During 2007, right before the major financial collapse, junk bond default rates were at this current corporate debt levels. By the following year, default rates rose to a jaw-dropping 15%.
The corporate debt levels data indicates that there is an increased appetite for corporate America to take advantage of the current low-interest environment. As guidance on earnings continues to be tempered for 2019, corporate America appears to be doubling down on interest rates remaining stable.
The post Moody’s Issue Report Citing Corporate Debt Levels Vulnerability appeared first on ValueWalk.
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Micron this week was the poster child for this “bull-trap” lunacy
by ValueWalk - March 24th, 2019 12:11 am
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
From Crescat Capital
Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever.
Micron this week was the poster child for this “bull-trap” lunacy. Investors bid Micron’s stock up 10% on Thursday after the company released earnings. The move sent the semiconductor index to a record high on Thursday. The truth was that Micron gave terrible forward guidance on the conference call forcing analysts to slash estimates for revenues, earnings, and free cash flow for 2019 and 2020.
Friday the market started to wake up to the real world as global stocks reversed back down. Both of Crescat’s hedge funds were up over 3% net on the day due to our steadfast net short positioning nearly erasing all MTD losses in both funds. Emerging market currencies and stocks fell hard on Friday with US stocks following just as global investors had poured into emerging markets hoping to outperform versus and aged and expensive US market. But all is not right with emerging markets. EM currency declines tend to foreshadow China yuan devaluations as they did in 2015 and 2018. We think it is poised play out again. We haven’t seen anything yet in terms of the Chinese yuan devaluation that we are expecting.
With record debt-to-GDP bubbles today around the world, and China first and foremost among them, we continue to forecast a downturn in the global economic cycle. We think investors at large are clueless about the financial and economic risks coming from China and how an impending China credit bust will negatively feed back to US and global financial markets. We strongly encourage you to view a new brief video from Tavi Costa, our macro analyst, where he outlines the China risks in a deck of macro charts: www.youtube.com
The global stock market (likely bull-trap) rally YTD has resulted in a pullback for Crescat’s hedge funds given our steadfast net short positioning. We believe Crescat’s hedge funds are poised for another run like we had at the end of 2018…
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Tax Receipts Decline As Budget Deficit Reaches Record
by ValueWalk - March 22nd, 2019 6:19 pm
By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.
The U.S budget deficit has widened as the corporate and individual tax receipts and other revenue declines in the face of federal spending reaching new heights.
Last year’s fiscal gap for February was $215.2 billion. It has now grown to $234 billion. This is larger than the last budget deficit record set in 2012. This increase is due to declines in tax receipts for October-February. The period saw a decline of 1 percent (1.3 trillion ) from the prior year while growth in federal spending rose upwards of 9 percent to 1.8 trillion the same period.
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Alarms are going off in the Federal reserve as Fed Chairmen Jerome Powell expresses concern over this recent news. In a press conference on Wednesday, Mr. Powell explained that the growing debt is something that eventually must be addressed. Standing opposite of this position are those who espouse Modern Monetary Theory which contends that there is, in fact, more room for spending.
Data coming from the Treasury show a decline of tax receipts from both corporation and individuals during the five-month period. Corporate tax receipts are down $8 billion, or 23%, compared to last year and individual income taxes, meanwhile, fell $15 billion, or 1 percent. Although revenues have increased from customs duties due to the Trump administration’s imposed tariffs, most of the government’s revenues come from income tax revenues.
Critics of the Trump administration’s tax policy will undoubtedly latch on this news to discount Trump’s economic policy. The Trump administration promoted the idea that the general cutting of taxes would be recouped through increased economic activity. Last year’s economic growth of 2.9% appears to only partly validate Trump’s tax policy as economic sentiment begins declining. White official’s project that the economy will grow by 3.2 percent this year, but many market observers question this optimistic forecast.
The post Tax Receipts Decline As Budget Deficit Reaches Record appeared first on ValueWalk.
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Volatility Rocks-The Rhythm Of Movement
by ValueWalk - March 22nd, 2019 5:55 pm
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
The most exciting rhythms seem unexpected and complex, the most beautiful melodies simple and inevitable.” – W.H. Auden
These are my thoughts on relevant investment topics. In our ongoing research of our own dilemmas, we recognize that the same issues are likely at the heart of struggles that we all face. With equal measure of frustration and excitement, we hope to contribute to the marketplace of ideas and discussion. And with the goal of interaction and feedback, please reach out with responses or topics of interest.
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
March 2019
I am absolutely crazy about Pink Floyd, though maybe not quite as nutty bonkers about them as I was during my college years. But both then and now, when I hear their music, I just close my eyes and take in the beauty. The melody moves me.
I recall the night vividly at the Oakland Coliseum about twenty-five years ago; there were tens of thousands of people sitting far and wide across the vast auditorium; and all were frantically waiting. For being so immensely crowded across such a massive open space, the silence was eerie – almost deafening. Nor did it help that a deep blackness consumed the stage at the front and center, where the band’s instruments were believed to be. I could neither see nor hear anything but the crowd. Suddenly, and almost out of nowhere, fantastically bright bulbs illuminated the center of the stage from half a dozen perfectly chosen angles. The crowd began to roar, and cheer, and scream as a small and focused fireworks display leaped out of the stage floor, alongside Roger Waters:
So ya
Thought ya
Might like to go to the show.
To feel the warm thrill of confusion
That space cadet glow.
Tell me is something eluding you, sunshine?
Is this not what you expected to see?
If you wanna find out what’s behind these cold eyes
You’ll just have to claw your way through this disguise...
And on went one of the best concerts I have ever…
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