Posts Tagged ‘MAR’

Working Class Thursday – Show Us the Jobs!

UnemploymentJobs, jobs, jobs!

That's what it's all about, or not about today.  Last week we got much better than expected numbers as Job losses fell from 640,000 to 565,000 but how much of that was due to the July 4th holiday weekend we will see this morning.  Analysts have quickly lowered their expectations to match last week's figure (as they don't have a clue of their own) and now we are expected to lose "only" 550,000 jobs this morning – still a 6.6M annual pace so keep that in mind should the markets decide to "celebrate" that number.  Looking at the chart, you'll see that July of '08 had a sharp downturn in Job losses as well, down from 400,000 to 350,000 with July 4th celebrated on a Friday last year too.  Those reports arrested a slide in the Dow from 13,000 in May to 11,000 in mid-July and the market ran back to 11,800 on Aug 11th and we held around 11,500 until things fell apart in September and we fell all the way to 8,000.  I know – history is just soooooo boring, what could possibly be learned from it?

Yesterday was an amazing day as we ran right up to the target levels I predicted on Monday, which I reiterated in yesterday's morning post, saying:  "Our upper targets to break the dreaded head and shoulders pattern are:  Dow 8,500, S&P 930, Nasdaq 1,825, NYSE 6,000 and Russell 510."  We had what we call a "Free Money Day" as the markets went up and up and up some more with the Dow topping out way up at 8,620, a 6.4% move off the bottom, which is just about a 20% retrace of the 33% drop so, of course, we shorted it!  The S&P made it right to 932 and finished there, up 7.1% since Friday.  The Nasdaq made it all the way to 1,860 after gapping just over our target at the open, up 6.9% for the week.  The NYSE hit 6,000 on the nose and finished just under it – up 7.1% while the Russell over-achieved to 515, up 8.4% in 3 days. 

As I mentioned yesterday, just because we made our targets, we are not automatically expecting a "breakout."  We are not happy with the WAY in which we got here…
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Option traders see Harley dropping a gear

Today’s tickers: HOG, GE, GM, MWW, MAR, YHOO, ALL & C

HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. – The motorcycle company’s shares have dipped by more than 2% to $17.64 today and have motivated investors to shop for downside protection on the stock. HOG appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one trader purchased 11,800 puts at the May 15 strike price for a premium of 88 cents per contract. This lot of purchased-puts represents nearly twice the amount of existing open interest at that strike. Should shares fall below the breakeven point at $14.12 by expiration next month the trader will begin to amass profits as shares move lower. From today’s current price, shares would need to fall by another 20% in order to breach the breakeven point described.

GE General Electric – Shares of the Connecticut-based company have rallied by more than 8% to $12.25. Option investors were observed making a mixture of bearish and bullish moves on GE. At the April 12 strike price, 20,000 calls were sold for a premium of 63 cents apiece while the April 12 puts were purchased 24,000 times for an average price of 57 cents per contract. Perhaps investors are banking gains by selling in-the-money calls ahead of expiration on Friday, but also picking up downside protection in case shares reverse direction in the next 4 days. The May 10 strike price witnessed the sale of nearly 16,000 puts for 46 cents and indicates that some traders do not see shares dipping below the breakeven point at $9.54 by next month’s expiration. Finally, the June 13 strike price saw the purchase of 4,600 calls for a premium of 1.06 apiece as some investors are hopeful that shares will breach $14.06 in June. Bullish traders even looked to the June 20 strike price where 2,600 calls were picked up for about 8 cents each. GE’s shares have not traded above $14.06 since January 14th, and have not been above $20.00 since November 4, 2008, but option traders appear to be chomping at the bit – hungry for a meatier GE share price.

GM General Motors, Corp. – Shares are off by more than 16% to $1.70 amid news that the U.S. Treasury has directed the failing automaker to prepare for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, 2009. Option implied volatility has exploded to 324% from Thursday’s reading of 197% as…
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Phil's Favorites

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

 

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

By , Statista

President Trump has signed an executive order which aims to remove some of the legal protection given to social media companies, though it is expected to face significant legal hurdles. In a nutshell, it sets out to clarify the Communications Decency Act, handing regulators the power to file legal proceedings against social media companies for the way they police content on their platforms. Trump's decision to take action comes two days after Twitter attached a fact check to one of his tweets lambasting mail-in voting. He then threatened to close ...



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ValueWalk

Gold supply chain in recovery mode after pandemic shutdown

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The gold supply chain was largely shut down as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world. However, things are starting to open back up, and production is beginning again. The World Gold Council studied the gold supply chain, how it was impacted by the pandemic, and how the disruption of the supply chain has affected investment demand for the yellow metal.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disruption to the gold supply chain

The World Gold Council said the gold supply chain is entirely global because the metal is mined on evert continent except Antarctica and refined in nume...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy - and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

 

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy – and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

Antibodies are incredibly good at finding the coronavirus. Antigen tests put them to work. Sergii Iaremenko/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Courtesy of Eugene Wu, University of Richmond

In late February, I fell ill with a fever and a cough. As a biochemist who teaches a class on viruses, I’d been tracking the outbreak of...



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Zero Hedge

Ted Cruz Accuses Twitter Of Violating Sanctions Against Iran, Demands DoJ Probe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

We've mentioned in nearly every single one of our posts about this week's dustup between the president and Twitter that the Ayato...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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