Posts Tagged ‘stock market charts’

GETTING TECHNICAL: SELL INTO THE RALLY

GETTING TECHNICAL: SELL INTO THE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Decision Point:

After the S&P 500 broke down from the rising wedge pattern I expected that prices would continue to head lower into a 20-Week Cycle low at the end of this month. But no. Instead prices rallied back above the rising trend line which formed the bottom of the wedge. Prices even rallied to a marginal intraday new high, so the rising trend that began at the March lows remains intact. In spite of that, it looks as if prices are forming a double top.

On the chart I have drawn a new rising wedge pattern that conforms to the gradual rolling over that prices appear to be doing. As usual, we should expect prices to break down out of the wedge, and, perhaps, that will lead to the correction we have been awaiting.

DP1

Below, our OBV (On-Balance Volume) suite of charts shows the short-term CVI and STVO coming off overbought levels and allowing for further decline in the short-term. The medium-term VTO shows that an internal correction is in progress that appears to be spreading to price behavior.

DP2

In his comments today, John Murphy (StockCharts.com) pointed out that large-cap indexes are beginning to out-perform small cap indexes. This should be of special interest to our subscribers because we track both cap-weighted and equal-weighted versions of the major market and sector indexes. (Equal-weighted indexes the smaller-cap stocks in the index to exert more influence on the price of the index.) In the example below, we have a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with the Price Relative to the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP). You can see that the S&P 500 relative strength line trended downward since March, but recently it began to trend upward. The message being that it is probably time to shift money out of the equal-weighted vehicles and into the cap-weighted vehicles. (See signal table below to see how well equal-weighted stocks have performed.)

DP3

Bottom Line: Last week I thought that a medium-term correction had begun, but a rally to new highs killed that projection. The market now looks as if it is topping, and internals support the idea that there will be a decline into the end of the month. A further


continue reading


Tags: ,




Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Courtesy of Fallond Stock Picks

Another week of point gains, but supporting technicals continue their downward descent. The S&P is very close to a MACD trigger ‘sell’ with Fibonacci retracements still in play; however, a break of 1,107 would favour a push perhaps as far as 1,222.

The Nasdaq is fighting resistance which marked support in early 2008. Its MACD ‘sell’ is already in play.  [Click on charts for larger images.]
 

Although the Nasdaq 100 gives hope with its move into ‘fresh air’ and a possible move into the 2000s. But it does have a MACD trigger ‘sell’ to contend with.


However, the positives in the Nasdaq 100 are undermined by the struggles in the Russell 2000 – and the Russell 2000 is more important from a leadership perspective. Small Caps lie well below resistance with MACD ‘sell’ and weakening long term stochastics (momentum) to consider.


Market breadth has long been sided with the bears. The Nasdaq Summation Index has been on a ‘sell’ since July 10th.


And the weakness in the Bullish Percents has generated a new ‘sell’ signal; the last of the key Nasdaq Breadth signals to turn bearish (the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA generated a ‘sell’ on July 10th)


With all three key Nasdaq breadth indicators negative, and small caps (and semiconductors) struggling it would not be considered foolish to step aside and let the heat leave the market before long sided positions could be considered again.

 


Tags:




On Charts & Liberty

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report! 

Allan looks at the market through two unorthodox chart methodologies.  What are they saying?  Sell signals are beginning to appear.

On Charts & Liberty

Courtesy of Allan

Let’s bring current the view of the market from the perspectives of Renko and 3-Line Break Point charts, using long-term Weekly charts, intermediate-term Daily charts and short-term Hourly trading charts

Renko – Weekly


 Last signal a Buy on July 13 at 881.49

Point Break – Weekly

Last signal a Buy @ 761.75 on April 27th – Sell stop @ 899.52

Renko – Daily

Sell signal August 6th @ 1000.87

Point Break – Daily

Sell stop @ 986.56

Renko – Hourly

Last Sell August 7th @ 1014.05

Point Break – Hourly

Sell August 7th @ 1012.37

 

Commentary

Are these signals tradable? Those are some very impressive trades across the board, from Weekly to Daily to Hourly. Labeling these trades in retrospect on a Sunday afternoon with a ballgame on in the background is one thing, trading the actual signals in real time with CNBC blasting and multiple models singing, well, that’s quite a different situation.

What would John Stuart Mill say?

To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning. A scientific method consists of the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses.

Well said. So my ongoing research is in part based in turning these two charting methodologies into a real time real money algorithm. Coming soon to a blog close to your hearts.

Oh yeah, something else from John Stuart Mill:

Mill’s On Liberty addresses the nature and limits of the power that can be legitimately exercised by society over the individual. One argument that Mill develops further than any previous philosopher is the harm principle. The harm principle holds that each individual has the right to act as he wants, so long as these actions do not harm others.

So goes my Sunday…..
 

 


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Tell Me a Story

 

Tell Me a Story

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice,@profgalloway

“A man’s reach should exceed his grasp, or what’s a heaven for?”

                                                    — Robert Browning

Entrepreneur is a synonym for salesperson, and salesperson is the pedestrian term for storyteller. Pro tip: No startup makes sense. We (entrepreneurs) are all impostors who must deploy a fiction (i.e. story) that captures imaginations and capital to pull the future forward and turn rhyme into reason. No business I have started, at the m...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

US To Close Borders To Unvaccinated Canadian, Mexican Truckers On Saturday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

By Nate Tabak of FreightWaves,

The U.S. will close its borders to unvaccinated and partially vaccinated Canadian and Mexican truck drivers on Saturday, the Department of Homeland Security said on Thursday.

“These updated travel requirements reflect the Biden...



more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

Long COVID: For the 1 in 10 patients who become long-haulers, COVID-19 has lasting effects

 

Long COVID: For the 1 in 10 patients who become long-haulers, COVID-19 has lasting effects

Long COVID appears to affect about one in 10 people who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Manali Mukherjee, McMaster University and Zain Chagla, McMaster University

Even as the unpredictable rise and fall of COVID-19 infections continues at home and around the world, a new and ugly pandemic-related problem is emerging.

We know it generically as “...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!

The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.

The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.

Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, the short and intermediate term signals are fair game. The next fe...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

Elm Ridge 4Q21 Commentary: The Punch You Don't See

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elm Ridge commentary for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021, titled, “The Punch You Don’t See.”

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“Graham and Dodd investors are people who place a very high value on having the last laugh. In exchange for the privilege they have missed out on a lot of laughs in between.” – Michael Lewis

“It’s the punch you don’t see coming that knocks ...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Weakness Has Bears Circling Tech Stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One theme over the past several months has been tech stock’s under-performance. And 2022 seems to be amplifying this theme as we kick off the new year.

Today’s chart focus is on the ratio of the Nasdaq Composite to the S&P 500 Index. We have shared this ratio a few times recently as the price pattern has become a concern.

As you can see in the chart, there’s a potential that the ratio double topped last year at the 2000 highs. And weakness this month has it attempting to break dual support at...



more from Kimble C.S.

Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



more from Politics

Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.