Posts Tagged ‘stock market charts’

GETTING TECHNICAL: SELL INTO THE RALLY

GETTING TECHNICAL: SELL INTO THE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Decision Point:

After the S&P 500 broke down from the rising wedge pattern I expected that prices would continue to head lower into a 20-Week Cycle low at the end of this month. But no. Instead prices rallied back above the rising trend line which formed the bottom of the wedge. Prices even rallied to a marginal intraday new high, so the rising trend that began at the March lows remains intact. In spite of that, it looks as if prices are forming a double top.

On the chart I have drawn a new rising wedge pattern that conforms to the gradual rolling over that prices appear to be doing. As usual, we should expect prices to break down out of the wedge, and, perhaps, that will lead to the correction we have been awaiting.

DP1

Below, our OBV (On-Balance Volume) suite of charts shows the short-term CVI and STVO coming off overbought levels and allowing for further decline in the short-term. The medium-term VTO shows that an internal correction is in progress that appears to be spreading to price behavior.

DP2

In his comments today, John Murphy (StockCharts.com) pointed out that large-cap indexes are beginning to out-perform small cap indexes. This should be of special interest to our subscribers because we track both cap-weighted and equal-weighted versions of the major market and sector indexes. (Equal-weighted indexes the smaller-cap stocks in the index to exert more influence on the price of the index.) In the example below, we have a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with the Price Relative to the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP). You can see that the S&P 500 relative strength line trended downward since March, but recently it began to trend upward. The message being that it is probably time to shift money out of the equal-weighted vehicles and into the cap-weighted vehicles. (See signal table below to see how well equal-weighted stocks have performed.)

DP3

Bottom Line: Last week I thought that a medium-term correction had begun, but a rally to new highs killed that projection. The market now looks as if it is topping, and internals support the idea that there will be a decline into the end of the month. A further


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Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Courtesy of Fallond Stock Picks

Another week of point gains, but supporting technicals continue their downward descent. The S&P is very close to a MACD trigger ‘sell’ with Fibonacci retracements still in play; however, a break of 1,107 would favour a push perhaps as far as 1,222.

The Nasdaq is fighting resistance which marked support in early 2008. Its MACD ‘sell’ is already in play.  [Click on charts for larger images.]
 

Although the Nasdaq 100 gives hope with its move into ‘fresh air’ and a possible move into the 2000s. But it does have a MACD trigger ‘sell’ to contend with.


However, the positives in the Nasdaq 100 are undermined by the struggles in the Russell 2000 – and the Russell 2000 is more important from a leadership perspective. Small Caps lie well below resistance with MACD ‘sell’ and weakening long term stochastics (momentum) to consider.


Market breadth has long been sided with the bears. The Nasdaq Summation Index has been on a ‘sell’ since July 10th.


And the weakness in the Bullish Percents has generated a new ‘sell’ signal; the last of the key Nasdaq Breadth signals to turn bearish (the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA generated a ‘sell’ on July 10th)


With all three key Nasdaq breadth indicators negative, and small caps (and semiconductors) struggling it would not be considered foolish to step aside and let the heat leave the market before long sided positions could be considered again.

 


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On Charts & Liberty

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report! 

Allan looks at the market through two unorthodox chart methodologies.  What are they saying?  Sell signals are beginning to appear.

On Charts & Liberty

Courtesy of Allan

Let’s bring current the view of the market from the perspectives of Renko and 3-Line Break Point charts, using long-term Weekly charts, intermediate-term Daily charts and short-term Hourly trading charts

Renko – Weekly


 Last signal a Buy on July 13 at 881.49

Point Break – Weekly

Last signal a Buy @ 761.75 on April 27th – Sell stop @ 899.52

Renko – Daily

Sell signal August 6th @ 1000.87

Point Break – Daily

Sell stop @ 986.56

Renko – Hourly

Last Sell August 7th @ 1014.05

Point Break – Hourly

Sell August 7th @ 1012.37

 

Commentary

Are these signals tradable? Those are some very impressive trades across the board, from Weekly to Daily to Hourly. Labeling these trades in retrospect on a Sunday afternoon with a ballgame on in the background is one thing, trading the actual signals in real time with CNBC blasting and multiple models singing, well, that’s quite a different situation.

What would John Stuart Mill say?

To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning. A scientific method consists of the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses.

Well said. So my ongoing research is in part based in turning these two charting methodologies into a real time real money algorithm. Coming soon to a blog close to your hearts.

Oh yeah, something else from John Stuart Mill:

Mill’s On Liberty addresses the nature and limits of the power that can be legitimately exercised by society over the individual. One argument that Mill develops further than any previous philosopher is the harm principle. The harm principle holds that each individual has the right to act as he wants, so long as these actions do not harm others.

So goes my Sunday…..
 

 


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Zero Hedge

Prices Are Going To Rise... And Fast!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

With stock-markets barely ruffled, few are thinking beyond the very short-term and they are mostly guessing anyway. Other than possibly the very short-term as we emerge from lockdowns, the economic situation is actually dire, and any hope of a V-shaped recovery is wishful thinking or just brokers’ propaganda. But for now, monetary policy is to buy off all reality by printing money without limit and almost no one is thinking about the consequences.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

 

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School

Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I&...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

 

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School

Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I&...



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ValueWalk

The M&A Activism Picture Is Not All Rosy

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This week we released Shareholder activism in H1 2020 – the definitive statistical report on an unprecedented proxy season.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Given just how massive and longlasting the impact of the coronavirus pandemic has been, including an end to the longest bull market in history (followed after the briefest of pauses by a roaring recovery), an end to the ...



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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?


Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?


The question is always what will the future price action look like ?


This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.



There are two theories: ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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