Posts Tagged ‘stock market charts’

GETTING TECHNICAL: SELL INTO THE RALLY

GETTING TECHNICAL: SELL INTO THE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Decision Point:

After the S&P 500 broke down from the rising wedge pattern I expected that prices would continue to head lower into a 20-Week Cycle low at the end of this month. But no. Instead prices rallied back above the rising trend line which formed the bottom of the wedge. Prices even rallied to a marginal intraday new high, so the rising trend that began at the March lows remains intact. In spite of that, it looks as if prices are forming a double top.

On the chart I have drawn a new rising wedge pattern that conforms to the gradual rolling over that prices appear to be doing. As usual, we should expect prices to break down out of the wedge, and, perhaps, that will lead to the correction we have been awaiting.

DP1

Below, our OBV (On-Balance Volume) suite of charts shows the short-term CVI and STVO coming off overbought levels and allowing for further decline in the short-term. The medium-term VTO shows that an internal correction is in progress that appears to be spreading to price behavior.

DP2

In his comments today, John Murphy (StockCharts.com) pointed out that large-cap indexes are beginning to out-perform small cap indexes. This should be of special interest to our subscribers because we track both cap-weighted and equal-weighted versions of the major market and sector indexes. (Equal-weighted indexes the smaller-cap stocks in the index to exert more influence on the price of the index.) In the example below, we have a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with the Price Relative to the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP). You can see that the S&P 500 relative strength line trended downward since March, but recently it began to trend upward. The message being that it is probably time to shift money out of the equal-weighted vehicles and into the cap-weighted vehicles. (See signal table below to see how well equal-weighted stocks have performed.)

DP3

Bottom Line: Last week I thought that a medium-term correction had begun, but a rally to new highs killed that projection. The market now looks as if it is topping, and internals support the idea that there will be a decline into the end of the month. A further


continue reading


Tags: ,




Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Courtesy of Fallond Stock Picks

Another week of point gains, but supporting technicals continue their downward descent. The S&P is very close to a MACD trigger ‘sell’ with Fibonacci retracements still in play; however, a break of 1,107 would favour a push perhaps as far as 1,222.

The Nasdaq is fighting resistance which marked support in early 2008. Its MACD ‘sell’ is already in play.  [Click on charts for larger images.]
 

Although the Nasdaq 100 gives hope with its move into ‘fresh air’ and a possible move into the 2000s. But it does have a MACD trigger ‘sell’ to contend with.


However, the positives in the Nasdaq 100 are undermined by the struggles in the Russell 2000 – and the Russell 2000 is more important from a leadership perspective. Small Caps lie well below resistance with MACD ‘sell’ and weakening long term stochastics (momentum) to consider.


Market breadth has long been sided with the bears. The Nasdaq Summation Index has been on a ‘sell’ since July 10th.


And the weakness in the Bullish Percents has generated a new ‘sell’ signal; the last of the key Nasdaq Breadth signals to turn bearish (the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA generated a ‘sell’ on July 10th)


With all three key Nasdaq breadth indicators negative, and small caps (and semiconductors) struggling it would not be considered foolish to step aside and let the heat leave the market before long sided positions could be considered again.

 


Tags:




On Charts & Liberty

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report! 

Allan looks at the market through two unorthodox chart methodologies.  What are they saying?  Sell signals are beginning to appear.

On Charts & Liberty

Courtesy of Allan

Let’s bring current the view of the market from the perspectives of Renko and 3-Line Break Point charts, using long-term Weekly charts, intermediate-term Daily charts and short-term Hourly trading charts

Renko – Weekly


 Last signal a Buy on July 13 at 881.49

Point Break – Weekly

Last signal a Buy @ 761.75 on April 27th – Sell stop @ 899.52

Renko – Daily

Sell signal August 6th @ 1000.87

Point Break – Daily

Sell stop @ 986.56

Renko – Hourly

Last Sell August 7th @ 1014.05

Point Break – Hourly

Sell August 7th @ 1012.37

 

Commentary

Are these signals tradable? Those are some very impressive trades across the board, from Weekly to Daily to Hourly. Labeling these trades in retrospect on a Sunday afternoon with a ballgame on in the background is one thing, trading the actual signals in real time with CNBC blasting and multiple models singing, well, that’s quite a different situation.

What would John Stuart Mill say?

To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning. A scientific method consists of the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses.

Well said. So my ongoing research is in part based in turning these two charting methodologies into a real time real money algorithm. Coming soon to a blog close to your hearts.

Oh yeah, something else from John Stuart Mill:

Mill’s On Liberty addresses the nature and limits of the power that can be legitimately exercised by society over the individual. One argument that Mill develops further than any previous philosopher is the harm principle. The harm principle holds that each individual has the right to act as he wants, so long as these actions do not harm others.

So goes my Sunday…..
 

 


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The Tide Is Going Out and JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and AIG Appear to Be Swimming (Read Trading) Naked

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Closing Price of the S&P 500 Index on Friday, March 27, 2020, Versus Bank of America [BAC], Citigroup[C], Deutsche Bank [DB], Goldman Sachs [GS], JPMorgan Chase [JPM], Morgan Stanley [MS], AIG, and Ameriprise Financial [AMP]. (Source: BigCharts.com)

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 29, 2020 ~

Warren Buffet is credited with the quote: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

Friday’s closing prices among some of the heavily interconnected mega Wall Str...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Trump Says "No Quarantine Necessary" For NY, NJ And CT As US Death Toll Tops 2,000: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Global case total tops 600k
  • Global COVID-19 death toll tops 30k
  • US death toll tops 2k
  • After Trump earlier said he was weighing enforceable quarantine order for all the tri-state area, late on Sunday he said that "on the recommendation of the White House CoronaVirus Task Force, and upon consultation with the Governor’s of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut" he would not be imposing a quarantine. ...


more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the on...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

'Psyched': Hawaii Considers Resolution For Shrooms, Champignon Eyes Ketamine Products

Courtesy of Benzinga

Psyched is a bi-monthly column covering the most important developments in the industry of medicinal psychedelics. We hope you follow us periodically as we report on the growth of this exciting new industry.

Champignon Brands Buys IP Company and Adds Ketamine and New Formulations To Its Portfolio

On March 19, Champignon Brands Inc. (CSE: SHRM) (OTC: SHRMF), a Canadian healt...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



more from Tech. Traders

Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

more from Our Members

ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

more from ValueWalk

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.