Top Trades for Tue, 17 Jul 2018 17:40 – Money Talk Review

Money Talk Portfolio Review:   I am doing the show tomorrow so I have to put this together first.  Sadly, we dropped a lot since our June 14th review, when we were at $92,727 (85.5%) but now down to $84,300 (68.6%), mostly due to LB's pullback and our inability to roll SQQQ like we did in the STP/OOP.  Nonetheless, up 68.6% since Sept doesn't suck and now we can make some adjustments! 

I'm a bit concerned about the rest of the summer so we're going to be cautious – especially with these gains to lock in. 

  • ALK – I'm very confident in the next $51.80 entry so no change here.  Earnings are 7/26 so we'll watch those carefully but expectations are low (about $1.65) and they made $2.51 last Q2, so I'm only worried about guidance.  Anticipate making $3,725 more on this one.
  • IMAX – Lots of blockbusters ahead should be good for them but this spread is well in the money and can be cashed out for $8.80/4.10 for net $4.70 ($9,400) out of a possible $5 so it's not worth the risk as we can't make interim adjustments so we'll take the profit off the table.  
  • SQQQ – We still need a hedge and there's not much left in this one.  We bought it for net $3,080 and now we can sell the Sept $16 calls for 0.45 ($1,800) so our cost of insurance since Feb was $1,280 – not too terrible.  We'll leave the short $23 calls to expire worthless and set up a new hedge of 20 June 2019 $10 ($3.50)/Jan $15 ($1.30) bull call spreads at net $2.20 ($4,400).  The spread is $2.35 in the money ($4,700), so it's money well-spent as we can't lose unless our other positions go higher.

  • AAPL – We are way over our goal and the Jan $150 ($43.30)/165 ($30) bull call spread is $13.30 ($26,000) and the short $140 puts are 0.70 ($700) for net $25,300.  If we ride it out, we will make $4,700 more at $165 and that's up 18.5% in 6 months – not terrible but I think we can do better with $25,300 in cash so let's take


continue reading





Top Trades for Mon, 09 Jul 2018 12:26 – MDLZ

24,750!

/SI/Malsg – Hopefully just starting a nice move but I don't think the Dollar will go much lower:

MDLZ/Learner – Good call actually.  Range has been between $39 (not counting spike) and $45 recently and even going back to 2015, the same range had generally held.  It's right in the middle at $42.34 and it's certainly a stock we don't mind getting "stuck" owning so we can make a bullish butterfly on it and we certainly could use a new one so let's add this to our Butterfly Portfolio:

  • Sell 10 MDLZ 2020 $40 puts for $2.65 ($2,650) 
  • Buy 20 MDLZ 2020 $40 calls for $5.55 ($11,100)
  • Sell 20 MDLZ 2020 $47 calls for $2.25 ($4,500) 
  • Sell 5 MDLZ Aug $42 calls for $1.40 ($700)
  • Sell 5 MDLZ Aug $42 puts for 0.88 ($440) 

So our net entry is $3,950 and we have 557 days to sell until 2020 expiration and Aug expiration is 39 days away so we're selling about 1/14th of our time for $1,140.  14 sales of $1,140 is going to be $15,960 of premium sales ahead of us, which is a nice return (and these are very cautious quarter-sales to start with) and we also can make up to $14,000 back on the spread if MDLZ finishes at $47 so there's potential here for a $24,000 gain (600%) if all goes perfectly – but it never does.  Let's just say we have a very high degree of confidence in this trade making us some money! 

Thanks Learner, it's about time we added another Butterfly play!  

Cannabis/Soma – My top cannabis play right now is the company PSW Investments is working with (private equity).  I just met with them in NY this weekend and I think they are perfectly positioned to take advantage of an exploding market.  If you (or anyone else) is interested, let Greg know (admin at philstockworld dot com) right away as we're putting a deal together for them asap.  

Other than that, I like MO the best as a long-term play – even the guys I was talking too, who've been on the medical side for many years, think it's only a matter of time before


continue reading





Top Trades for Thu, 28 Jun 2018 10:24 – WBA

WBA/Jomp – Wow, so silly.  WBA already delivers to you if you choose but PillPack is the future and they'll have to respond to that now, more so than putting it off.  Unless AMZN is going to swallow the co-pay – I don't see what their competitive advantage is going to be and the disadvantage of not having an actual pharmacist to talk to doesn't seem like it's going to work to me – though they'd be smart to drive people to Whole Foods Pharmacies if they can get that going.

WBA is costing the Dow about 50 points this morning and $60 is a great entry point.  We added them on 3/29 in the LTP with 20 2020 $60/75 bull call spreads at $6.75 ($13,500) and sold 10 short 2020 $65 puts for $7.70 ($7,700) and that positioon is down about $2,000 at the moment but I still like the targets so great for a new entry and, in fact, let's go with 10 of the $60/75 bull call spreads at $6 ($6,000) and 5 short $65 puts for $9 ($4,500) in the OOP as a new trade for net $1,500.

 





Top Trades for Tue, 26 Jun 2018 11:58 – RCL and C

RCL is a nice cruise company at $105.75 ($22.4Bn) with $9Bn in sales and $1.6Bn in profits so p/e about 14 but growing steadily.  They pay a $2.40 (2%) dividend if you own them but we can start a position in the LTP by just selling 10 Jan (as far as they go) $95 puts for $4.50 ($4,500) in the LTP.  That's a nice place to start with them with a net $90.50 entry as the worst case.  That's really good money for 6 months!

Having looked at the banks, I decided I like C the best at this level ($65.44) as they paid $29Bn in taxes last year (repatriation), so I forgive them for showing a net $8Bn loss.  Normally, they would have paid about $7Bn and made $22Bn though usually their income is in the $15Bn range as a $166Bn company, so p/e about 11 but now they have $400Bn in CASH and Short-Term Investments and another $352Bn in Long-Term Investments – but don't get too excited as they are a bank and it's not really their money…

Anyway, it's a good bank and in better overall position than BAC and with less baggage than WFC and JPM is a different animal entirely and $65 should be nice support for them and the 2% dividend is not very exciting so we'll take the following in the OOP:

  • Sell 10 June 2020 $60 puts for $6 ($6,000) 
  • Buy 20 June 2020 $60 calls for $13 ($26,000)
  • Sell 20 June 2020 $70 calls for $8.50 ($17,000) 

That's net $3,000 on the $20,000 spread that's starting out $10,000 in the money.  As C moves up, we can sell a few calls for income but the upside potential here is already $17,000 (566%) if all goes just a little well – so no need to be greedy! 

FTR/Jeddah – They are converting stock that was costing them 11.125% into ordinary shares at 1.3333/share – I'm thrilled with that deal.  Dividend was $2.78 per share, per Q so this is a huge savings to us in exchange for ordinary stock (25.67M shares out of  80M so about 30% dilution).  Since FTR was down "just" $20M last Q, they can now afford to pay everyone…
continue reading





Top Trades for Fri, 22 Jun 2018 12:38 – SCO

Oil $68.50 – too much momentum to short and way too soon before the holidays.  SCO, however, is getting interesting again below $17.50 but we should be patient.  

SCO Sept $16 puts can be sold for $1 – not an exciting number for the STP so we'll wait a bit but net $15 is a good floor.  The Sept $15 ($3)/18 (1.50) bull call spread is a good play as $17.50 is $68.50 and we're expecting to be below that so, at the moment, the combo with a full cover is net $0.50 on the $3 spread or net $1 with just 1/2x cover so I think I'd go for that and sell 10 puts ($1,000) against 20 bull call spreads ($3,000) for net $2,000 on $6,000 worth of spreads that are pretty much in the money.  

I guess we'll make it official for the OOP and we'll add to it happily if oil goes higher and SCO goes lower.





Top Trades for Thu, 14 Jun 2018 14:04 – Money Talk Trades

Money Talk Portfolio Review:  I won't be doing the show again until July so we haven't touched a thing in it since Feb 1st. Nonetheless, a well-balanced portfolio is it's own reward and we're up another $6,010 from our 5/17 Review, which is very impressive as it's just a $50,000 Portfolio.  Well, it's $92,727 now as we're up 85.5%!  

The funny thing is, this portfolio is full of FU positions that we simply left alone!  It doesn't get much more low-touch than this, the only adjustment we ever made was to get more aggressive on IMAX…

  • ALK – Good for a new trade and I want to add a bull call spread.
  • IMAX – Well-behaved now.
  • SQQQ – Notice how this simple hedge as covered us up to $28,0000 for $3,000 since Feb and is good until Sept and, in all that time, we're only down $1,280?  That's the total cost of our insurance in this portfolio – insurance that would have paid us back $28,000 out of our initial $50,000 principle of the markets had gone horribly wrong.  Hedging does not have to be complicated, or expensive!  

  • AAPL – Accounting for a lot of our profits.
  • ABX – A late starter but I like them with gold coming back.
  • GE – Not as devastating as you'd think considering we went in in Feb.  
  • LB – Back on track but only have until Jan to get to $40 so no more missteps.  

  • WPM – Gosh I love this company!  

Well that was easy.  It''s a near perfect portfolio and you can see why I started a hedge fund because ordinary investors like the people who watch Money Talk up in Canada are like "WOW!" and you guys are like "Yawn – only 85%?"  





Top Trades for Thu, 07 Jun 2018 13:22 – DXD Hedge

Well, the other indexes are failing but you can still get this morning's DXD July $31/32 bull call spread for $1.31/90, so 0.41 on the $1 spread with DXD at $31.84.  10 DIS 2020 $90 puts can still be sold for $4.80 as DIS popped 0.45 but that's still $4,100 less $4,800 so a $700 credit at the moment for the $10,000 spread.  Let's add that to the STP! 

We already have 50 Oct $32/36 bull call spreads at $1.55 – this is a short-term addition.  Since it's a $700 credit, we just dump the DIS puts (eventually) into the LTP so there's no way the STP can lose a penny on this trade and the LTP has plenty of money to buy more DIS (we have 15 2020 $90/115 spreads with 10 short $95 puts at the moment) - so win/win.

KHC/DC – You are right, I forgot about those,  No second sale in the LTP if you already sold some!  





Top Trades for Tue, 05 Jun 2018 10:17 – QCOM

QCOM/StJ – Nice recovery for them in progress:

Sadly, we only have 10 short QCOM 2020 $50 puts we sold for $6.70 back on 4/16 but they are still $4.80 so not too bad as a new trade.  The 2020 $55 ($10)/$70 ($4) bull call spread at $6 for the $15 spread (150% upside potential) is a good pair so let's add 15 of them to the LTP so we have room to sell 5 short for income along the way.  

 





Top Trades for Tue, 29 May 2018 09:43 – OLED and GE

OLED – Seems to be a done deal with AAPL and other screen companies selling off.  $115 is nothing as the prior AAPL speculation took them to $200.  

The July $115 ($7.60)/$125 ($4.40) bull call spread at $3.20 is a good way to play this as it can make $6.80 very easily for a 200%+ gain in 52 days.

 

GE/StJ – I agree, a lifetime of call selling suits me just fine. 

Let's say we start with:

  • Selling 20 GE 2020 $18 puts for $4.20 ($8,200) 
  • Buying 40 GE 2020 $13 calls for $3.20 ($12,800) 
  • Selling 40 GE 2020 $18 calls for $2.20 ($8,800)

That's a $4,200 credit so net $15.90 is your worst entry but, of course, the current $18 puts are $3.50 and the 2020 $15 puts are $2.10 so we could roll to 30 of those and then 40 of the 2022 $13 puts and 60 of the 2024 $10 puts so we're committing to buying 6,000 shares of GE at $10 ($60,000) at which point we'd sell 60 2026 $10 calls for $1.50(ish) and pick up $9,000 (15%) plus the dividends – even if we don't want to sell more puts.  

On a more optimist note, we could get back $20,000 at $18 in just two years plus the $4,200 credit is net $24,200 profit potential against about $3,000 in ordinary margin.

When the worst case seems like owning a nice, annual dividend-payer and the best case is 10x back on your credit – you have to work very hard to find a reason NOT to take a trade!  

Net worth/StJ – That's why I tend to stay away from companies that depend on the disposable income of the Bottom 80%.





Top Trades for Tue, 22 May 2018 14:02 – ETM and THO

 

ETM/Scott – I'm surprised that business does well these days.  Sometimes the regular radio goes on in the car and the kids scream "Ewwww!"  I guess they sold off to the right price with a p/e of 5 – sounds like a good call to me and even better as they have good options prices.  

We could use another dividend payer in the LTP so let's grab 2,000 shares of ETM at $7.65 ($15,300) and sell 20 of the 2020 $8 calls for $1.50 ($3,000) and 20 of the 2020 $8 puts at $1.90 ($3,800) to net in for $4.25 ($8,500) with an obligation to buy 2,000 more shares at $8 ($16,000) which would put us in for an average of $6.13 on 4,000 shares ($24,520) – so still a 1/2 allocation, worst case. 

Meanwhile, we'll collect $720/yr (8.47%) in dividends against our $8,500 initial entry while we wait to see if we get called away with a $3.75 (88%) gain at $8 so 105% total potential return in 20 months on this "boring" dividend play!  

Fortnite/Atitlan – My kids play it and I play it too, sometimes.  It's actually a fun family activity, slaughtering villages together…  I spent $25 on a cool dragon glider and armor!  

Image result for fortnite dragon glider

Actually not $25, I got like 10,000 tokens for $25 and spent some on those items – but they still got my $25!    It's funny as there's another game called PUBG (Player Unknown, BattleGrounds) that came first and the actual combat is better/more realistic but the Fortnite guys made it simpler to play and monetized it way better (celebrity endorsements were key to rocketing them higher). 

THO/Ayyaps – They are basically a car company and gas is way high and they guzzle so I can see why they sold off.   Now ($100) they are priced right as they make about $9/share and it makes for a good, solid, long-term hold as there is little competition and huge barriers to entry (though I'm sure Musk will announce one soon).  

THO has the best options of the group and nice premiums due to


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

This Is What Happens Behind Closed Doors When U.S. Presidents Meet With Fed Chairs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week, Donald Trump ventured into what until recently was uncharted, for US presidents, territory.

First, during a CNBC interview, the president went so far as to say that the strong dollar "puts us at a disadvantage" then went on to do what so many consider anathema, and said he is "not thrilled" about the Fed rising rates "because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again."

One day later, Trump doubled down, ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

Theory Time

Thom Hartmann suggests that the Manchurian Candidate theory is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in ...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

BofA Points To Yum China's Earnings Downside Risk In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 31 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 20, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Small Caps Enjoy Best of Action

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn't a whole lot going on today except Small Caps were able to attract some buyers despite finishing below resistance; bulls have been taking advantage of the 20-day MA test. Today's action coincided with 'buy' signals in the MACD and +DI/-DI.


The S&P held its breakout and today's losses - despite higher volume selling - didn't do a whole lot of damage.

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Citadel CEO Says Bitcoin Still A "Head Scratcher" But Billionaire Lasry Sees $40,000 Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Ken Griffin, the CEO and founder of the Citadel hedge fund, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with CNBC this morning.

Speaking at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York, ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



more from M.T.M.

ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>