Top Trades for Thu, 15 Mar 2018 11:56 – HBI

HBI/Stock – Hmm, I guess we'll have to pull the trigger on them since that may be a sign something is up.  

HBI was our 2nd choice for Stock of the Year because our first choice, LB, had already snapped higher by Thanksgiving, when we officially make our pick.  Both are out of favor at the moment and we already picked up LB but now we can add some HBI to our Portfolios as well:

Note our old LTP play from 2/3/17 had a rough ride:

Submitted on 2017/02/03 at 7:46 am

HBI/Rexx – If they go down 30% I will dump other stocks so I can load up the truck.  Goes back to what I try to teach you guys about the absolute value of a company.  This isn't some with a blown business model or a retailer with too many stores and too few customers, this is a brand clothing company in an age where it take hundreds of millions to build each brand and you get Maidenform, Bali, PlaytexHanes, JMS/Just My Size, Lilyette, WonderbraDonna KaranDKNYChampionPolo Ralph LaurenL'eggs, Hanes Beefy-T, Gear for Sports, Duofold, DIM, Nur Die/Nur Der, Lovable, Shock Absorber, Abanderado, Zorba, Rinbros, Kendall, Sol y Oro, Fila, Bellinda, Edoo, and Track N Field AND $5Bn in sales AND $400M in profits for $8Bn.  If you don't understand the value in that – stick to TA!  

Submitted on 2017/02/03 at 12:54 pm

HBI/Pstas – $25 seems about right.  As to 44% of sales, so the 3 largest retailers sell 44% of something that pretty much every retailer (including AMZN) sells?  That's nothing to worry about.  If you don't get your Leggs from WMT it's because you're getting them at WBA or AMZN or whatever but you are still getting Leggs and HBI doesn't care WHERE you buy their stuff.

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Top Trades for Mon, 12 Mar 2018 10:21 – UCTT

Also, check out this morning's Top Trade Review.

Older reviews can be found under our Portfolio Tab.

PSA/Yodi – You like those storage trades, don't you?  I like them in general but only making $7.50/share so I'd rather wait for a better pullback.  UCTT is a nice, boring company that's a great value.  I like that for the LTP:

  • Sell 10 UCTT 2020 $20 puts for $5.75 ($5,750) 
  • Buy 20 UCTT 2020 $15 calls for $9.50 ($19,000)
  • Sell 20 UCTT 2020 $22.50 calls for $6.50 ($13,000) 

That's a grand total of $250 out of pocket on the $15,000 spread that's almost entirely in the money.  Good for a $14,750 (5,900%) gain on cash if it manages to go up $1.42 in 2 years and TOS says the margin is just $1,898 – so a very efficient way to make $15K in two years!  

Good call Yodi.

Top Trades for Fri, 09 Mar 2018 09:42 – IMAX and WPM

Just making a Top Trade Alert from 3/9 morning post:

Imax (IMAX) is getting cheap again at $20.35 and that trade was featured last Month on Money Talk, where we adjusted that portfolio to get more aggressive as they tested $19.  IMAX shot up to $24 in Feb but back to $20 now means yet another chance to enter this trade at not too much more than we paid at the time:

A Wrinkle in Time comes out this weekend but, much more importantly, the Avengers is coming along with plenty of other potential hit films so we still love IMAX and the Sept calls capture the summer box office.  The $15s are now $6.10 ($12,200) and the $20s are now $2.60 ($5,200) for net $7,000, which is up $1,000 (16.66%) from our entry in a month but it will still pay back $10 for a $3,000 additional profit (42%) in Sept if IMAX does manage to hold $20.  That seems like an easy way to make money, right?

So there are PLENTY of stocks we like long and, when they pay you 42% in 6 months – we don't need many of those to make really good returns.  That's how our Long-Term Portfolio can be over 80% in cash and still make 11.6% in just over 2 months  That leaves us plenty of cash on the sidelines to improve our positions (as we did with IMAX last month) and, most importantly, to hedge – because these markets are crazy and so is our leader – anything can happen and we need to be ready

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Top Trades for Thu, 08 Mar 2018 16:00 – CHL

CHL/QC – We never did add them officially, did we?  If you sold the June $50s, those are now $5 and the Sept $47.50s are $4.20 so 0.80 to roll down $2.50 isn't bad and I'd keep an eye on it but I'd tray to wait for Jans to come out to get a better roll (premium-wise).


Meanwhile, we missed $45 but, in the OOP, let's:

  • Sell 5 CHL Sept $47.50 puts for $5 ($2,500) 
  • Buy 10 CHL Sept $40 calls for $6.50 ($6,500)
  • Sell 10 CHL Sept $47.50 calls for $1.70 ($1,750)

That's net $2,250 on the $7,500 spread that's $6,000 in the money at the moment.  At $47.50 we make $5,250 (233%), which is great money for 6 months' work!  

In the LTP, we're doubling it to 10 short and 20 of the spreads.

Top Trades for Tue, 06 Mar 2018 11:21 – MU and MT

TGT/CRS – We used to have them last year from the $50s but $75+ was a bit much so we didn't go back in.  Of course they "disappointed" unrealistic expectations.  They spent a lot of money on on-line to keep up and are "only" making $5.25/share.  How that causes a sell-off in an $80 stock (p/e 15.25) is beyond me – where are these idiots running to?  NFLX at 200x earnings?  

MU/Dave – Another one I used to love at $10 just 2 years ago but very hard to get excited at $54, though they've certainly grown to keep up with it, dropping $5Bn to the bottom line last year on a $62Bn market cap makes them still very reasonable – especially in this space.  So yes, I do like them – even at $54 but I'd still go conservative:

  • Sell 10 MU 2020 $40 puts for $5.25 ($5,250) 
  • Buy 20 MU 2020 $35 calls for $24.50 ($49,000) 
  • Sell 20 MU 2020 $50 calls for $16.50 ($33,000) 

That's net $10,750 on the $30,000 spread that's $30,000 in the money so the upside is $19,250 and you can sell 4 (20%) of the April $44 calls for $3.40 ($1,360) while you wait as that's 45 days out of 682 you have to sell so you can work that $10,750 down to zero while you wait for your $40,000.

Steel/Jabob – MT is still my favorite.  Plenty of places for them to sell and ridiculous cheap at $33 (33.4Bn) with $5Bn in earnings last year.  They are down 15% on tariff news while the US companies are up 15% because they have to be protected from those mean foreigners.  Who do you bet gets drafted for the football team, the bully or the wimp who had to be saved by his mommy?  

  • Sell 10 MT 2020 $30 puts for $4.25 ($4,250) 
  • Buy 20 2020 $30 calls for $8.60 ($17,200) 
  • Sell 20 2020 $37 calls for $5.20 ($10,400) 

That's net $2,550 on the $14,000 spread and that one we can add to the LTP as we have no steel stocks.  

DRAM pricing/Dave, Batman…
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Top Trades for Thu, 01 Mar 2018 10:09 – LB

Good morning!  

Image result for julie andrews guns animated gif

Trump's plan for teachers….

Picking up where we left off, with the BS pump-up into the open quickly reversing.  I'm still agnostic – just want to see where things settle out for the week.

Oil and gasoline still going down, /NG still don't care…

Image result for honey badger don't care animated gif

I guess /TF is worth a toss long at 1,500 if it holds but I'm taking a stop below 1,499 for $50 loss vs maybe it goes to 1,505 for a $250 gain on a bounce.  

If we do bounce, we'll have to then see if they are strong or weak but strong is far away now. 

Down 60, for example means 12-point weak bounce to 1,512 and 24 points just to make the strong bounce at 1,524 – still bearish until then and, if we don't make that by tomorrow – still bearish into the weekend. 

More important (and also a good long play) is 2,700 on /ES so of course we're going to bounce off that – even in a huge sell-off and down from 2,780 is 80 so 16-point bounces to 2,716 (weak) and 2,732 (strong) seems like a lot of work.  

Of course, if you need a short, if either of those fail their lines, then short the other one as soon as it crosses under and get out if either cross back over.   We're only 10 points above 6,800 on /NQ, down 200 points (2.8%) means we need 25 just to get back to the -2.5% line (6,825) and that's not even the weak bounce (40 points) at 6,840 and 6,880 would be strong.

Notice we failed at 6,880 on the way down yesterday and then a bad test into the open.

Big Chart – My death cross lecture on the Nas is already paying off.  There's…
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Top Trades for Wed, 28 Feb 2018 10:30 – F

GM/Yodi – Then you should be interested in F, which is strangely still down at $10.74 despite making $1.70 per share last year and down to $1.50s this year means $15 is still a bargain for them.

Year End 31st Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
Revenue $m 133,559 146,917 144,077 149,558 151,800 156,776 147,191 146,257 +3.3%
Operating Profit $m 5,799 12,791 200 6,982 5,741 4,813     -3.7%
Net Profit $m 5,613 11,953 1,231 7,373 4,596 7,602 6,274 6,046 +6.3%
EPS Reported $ 1.41 2.94 0.31 1.84 1.15 1.80     +5.0%
EPS Normalised $ 1.57 1.87 -0.14 1.74 0.87 1.70 1.58 1.53 +1.6%
EPS Growth % -68.2 +19.1     -50.2 +95.2 -6.96 -3.38  
PE Ratio x           6.25 6.72 6.96  
PEG x           n/a n/a 5.55

Their 0.60 dividend is 5.5% but, in the LTP, we have this:

F Ford Motor Co. 3000 2/6/2018 22 $31,350 $10.45 $0.27 $10.45     $10.72 $0.11 $810 2.6% $32,160
Short Put 2020 17-JAN 9.87 PUT [F @ $10.72 $0.11] -15 2/6/2018 (688) $-2,625 $1.75 $0.00     $1.75 $0.05 $0 0.0% $-2,625
Short Call 2020 17-JAN 11.87 CALL [F @ $10.72 $0.11] -15 2/6/2018 (688) $-1,500 $1.00 $-0.10     $0.90 $0.00 $150 10.0% $-1,350

That's still playable as is and a great way to net in for $7.70, which makes the dividend 7.8% while you wait to see if you are called away at $11.87 with a $4.17 (37%) profit.  THAT is a relaxing way to make 25% a year!  

Top Trades for Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:12 – Dividends! NRZ, ARR, CIM, NLY

CHK slide show.  

NRZ is looking impressive with a 12% dividend:

NRZ has good options out to 2020 so that makes them more attractive and we can pick them up for the LTP as:

  • Buy 1,000 shares at $16.61 ($16,610) 
  • Sell 10 2020 $15 calls for $1.95 ($1,950) 
  • Sell 10 2020 $15 puts for $2.10 ($2,100) 

That's net $12,560 ($12.56/share) and we collect $2,000/yr in dividends so 16% on just the dividends plus another $2,390 if called away at $15 for a total profit of $6,390 (51%) on our $12,560 investment in two years but, hopefully, we'll be able to keep it for many more. 

In other REITs we love:

CIM is $16.92 but selling Sept $16 puts is only 0.80 and Sept $17 calls are 0.60 so, despite the fact that I love them – they simply aren't paying enough.

NLY is $10.21 and this one we can play as it's too cheap.  For the LTP and the OOP:

  • Buy 1,000 shares NLY at $10.21 ($10,210) 
  • Sell 10 2020 $10 puts for $1.80 ($1,800) 

That's net $8,410 and we're not selling calls because they are too cheap and I hope they go lower so we can buy more!   Dividend is $1.20 ($1,200)/yr so nice 14.2% while we wait to lower our basis even further.  

ARR is another one I like, especially on Sept 19th and they are right at $22.50 and the October contracts are out and have $22.50 strikes so we may as well pull the trigger on these too for the LTP:

  • Buy 1,000 ARR at $22.50 ($22,500) 
  • Sell 10 Oct $22.50 calls for $1 ($1,000) 
  • Sell 10 Oct $22.50 puts for $2 ($2,000) 

That's net $19,500 ($19.50) and they pay $2.28 (11.7%) but it's only 240 days vs 694 so 2 more sales at $3,000 drops us to $13,500 and drives the dividend to 17% – so it's the best of the bunch other than we have to make our sales in 3 rounds and I do prefer the better protection of collecting more up front.  Still, great stock, great dividend and a nice fit for the LTP.

We'll see how those go before adding any more.  

Top Trades for Tue, 13 Feb 2018 13:37 – GNC and HMNY

Wow, $1.69 on /RB.  Stop at $1.685 now.  

GNC/Dave – The main reason I like GNC is there are lots of people who think it will go BK (driving up the short put pricing) and I see little chance of that happening.  That being the case, I can construct a trade were I have little fear of the "worst case" (being assigned) and we can have fun with the leverage.  

In the LTP, we sold 20 GNC 2020 $5 puts for $3 ($6,000) and now they are $2.10 ($4,200) and still good for a new trade and, in the LTP we will add:

  • Buy 50 GNC 2020 $2.50 calls for $3.50 ($17,500) 
  • Sell 50 GNC 2020 $7.50 calls for $1.65 ($8,250) 

That's net $9,250 on our new spread less $6,000 we collected is net $3,250 on the $25,000 spread that's half in the money already.  Even taken with the puts at $4,200, the net is $5,050 with a $19,950 (395%) upside potential and the worst case is owning 2,000 shares for net $14,200 ($7.10) assuming you just sit there and watch the spread go to zero and never roll the puts.  

In the OOP, we already have that spread at net $700 for 20 – even better than the LTP's price.

While it looks like a falling knife, MoviePass (HMNY) is probably just repricing to the stock offering and, in the OOP, we don't have them at all so let's play ball!  

  • Sell 15 HMNY 2020 $5 puts for $2.60 ($3,900) 
  • Buy 25 HMNY 2020 $2.50 calls at $3.25 ($8,125) 
  • Sell 25 HMNY 2020 $7.50 calls for $1.10 ($2,750)

That's net $1,475 on the $12,500 spread so potential to gain $11,025 at $7.50 (747%) and we're more than half in the money already!  Aren't options great?  

Worst case is owning 1,500 shares at net $6ish 

In the LTP, we have 20 HMNY Aug $5/10 bull call spreads we paid net $1.50 for and we sold 10 Aug $7.50 puts for $3.50, which are now $3.70.  Let's adjust by:

  • Roll the 10 Aug $7.50 puts at $3.70 ($3,700) to 20

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Top Trades for Mon, 12 Feb 2018 11:23 – AAPL

LOL, I just realized we don't have AAPL in the LTP.  In the OOP, it's a bit expensive and I was hoping for a lower test but, for the LTP, we don't mind legging in so lets:

  • Buy 20 AAPL 2020 $150 calls at $31 ($62,000) 
  • Sell 10 AAPL 2020 $145 puts for $13 ($13,000) 

That's net $49,000 and our plan is to sell 20 of the 2020 $180 calls (now $17.30) for $20 or better ($40,000) which drops the net of the $60,000 spread to $9,000 and then we can sell short-term calls, like 5 of the April $170s, which are now $3.80 for $5+ and that would raise $2,500 against our $9,000 outlay and it only uses 67 of our 704 days so, in theory, we can sell $25,000 worth of calls while waiting for our $51,000 payoff.

Kind of makes you wonder why we bother with any other trade….


Phil's Favorites

1984 Is Not The Future

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.

Jacobello Alberegno The Beast of the Apocalypse 1360-90

The Guardian ran an article yesterday by one of its editors, David Shariatmadari, that both proves and disproves its own theme at the same time: “An Information Apocalypse Is Coming”. Now, I don’t fancy the term apocalypse in a setting like this, it feels too much like going for a cheap thrill, but since he used it, why not.

My first reaction to the headline, and the article, is: what do you mean it’s ‘coming’? Don’t you think we have such an apocalypse already, that we’re living it, we’re smack in the middle of such a thing? If you do...

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Zero Hedge

Mapping The Countries With The Most Billionaires

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

There are roughly 36 million millionaires in the world.

That means if you meet someone from the global population at random, there’s a 1 in 200 chance that they could be a millionaire – this makes for surprisingly good odds.

However, as VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, the billionaire on the other hand is a much rarer breed. According to Forbes, there are just over 2,000 billionaires in existence, making up just 0.00003% of the global population.

Where do these people ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: Bubble Or Hyperdeflation?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin flew too close to the sun. Now the eyes of the world are upon the crypto market, with all the consequences that follow...

“30th anniversary of Black Monday, when markets dropped 23% in a day. In crypto we just call that Monday."

- Alexander Tapscott

But, as Incrementum's Demelza Hays and Mark J. Valek show in their latest magnificent Crypto Research report, it all happened as it always has.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high and then predictably it fell again. All c...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update, demand is present

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When a Wyckoff trader looks at a stock chart of price and volume one looks for foot prints of material demand and supply. The current bitcoin chart shows very significant demand prints.

More from RTT Tv

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles...

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Connor Browne - FAANG Stocks Dominance

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

They are known as the FAANGs but Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet should also be dubbed the great disruptors. They have created new businesses and destroyed old ones, changing the way we conduct our personal and business lives in the process.

]]> Get Our Activist Investing Case Study!

Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below!

Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here.


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Insider Scoop

BofA: Lyft, Magna Could Be The First Of Many Autonomous Vehicle Partnerships

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MGA Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today Earnings Scheduled For February 22, 2018 ... more from Insider


How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Members' Corner

Fatal Flaws of our Enlightenment?


David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on many topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He’s also one of the “World’s Best Futurists.” Find David’s books and latest thoughts on various matters at his website and blog. In ...

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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