Top Trades for Fri, 24 Jul 2020 09:51 – INTC

Good morning!

I do not get this reaction at all.  They delayed the roll-out of their new state of the art chips while blowing out estimates on top and bottom line selling the old chips.  WTF is wrong with traders?  Data center was up 43%. Memory was up 76% (small unit) and IoT is going nowhere, surprisingly.  Company will make $4.85/share this year and it's dropping to $52?  Idiots!  

  • In the STP, let's sell 20 of the 2022 $50 puts for $8.50 ($17,000)
  • In the LTP, let's sell 20 of the 2022 $50 puts for $8.50 ($17,000) and buy 50 of the 2022 $45 calls for $11 ($55,000) and wait for a bounce to sell short calls.  
  • In the Earnings Portfolio, let's sell 10 of the 2022 $50 puts for $8.50 ($8,500) and buy 25 of the 2022 $45 ($11)/$55 ($6.50) bull call spreads for $4.50 ($11,250) and that's net $2,750 on the $25,000 spread that's $12,500 in the money so $22,250 (809%) upside potential is worth a toss.  




Top Trades for Thu, 23 Jul 2020 10:19 – T

Good morning and wheeeeeeeee!  

What a way to start the day.

So of course we're going to bounce at 26,800 as it's a nice, fat, pivot-point (see yesterday's webinar) and was clearly support yesterday so we calculate the bounce as 40-points (weak) back to 26,840 and 80-points (strong) back to 26,880 but if 26,840 breaks, why risk the gains?  Honestly should have taken the money and ran at 26,800 as it was certain to bounce and then just pick it up on the break below the line – you don't need to ride out bounces on futures – there's no friction cost to the trade!

Big Chart – NYSE is the key to everything at our 12,540 line (now 12,586).

T/Batman – Good call.  If not for Warner hurting them, this would have been gangbusters.  

AT&T said adjusted earnings for the three months ending in June was pegged at 83 cents per share, down 6.75% from the same period last year and 4 cents ahead of the Street consensus forecast. Group revenues, AT&T said, fell 8.9% from last year to $41.billion, just shy of analysts' estimates of $41.1 billion.

AT&T said it had around 36.3 million customers logged for its newly-launched HBO Max service (including legacy HBO subscribers) after adding around 3 million over the second quarter. That figure, however, is down from 34.6 million at the end of last year. Postpaid mobile phone subscribers, however, fell by 151,000 against market forecasts of additions totaling around 7,000. 

“Our solid execution and focus in a challenging environment delivered significant progress in the quarter, most notably the successful launch of HBO Max, resilient free cash flow and a strengthened balance sheet,” said new CEO John Stankey. “Our resilient cash from operations continues to support investments in growth areas, dividend payments and debt retirement."

"We are aggressively working opportunities


continue reading





Top Trades for Wed, 08 Jul 2020 10:35 – Special Webinar Invitation

Hello Top Trade Members!

Sorry we haven't found much to trade in the past month but, as noted in today's morning post, the purpose of the Top Trade Alerts is to find the trade ideas with the highest probabilty of success.  In a wildly swinging market like this one – June unfortunately had no such luck.  

Unlike pretty much every service I've subscribed to, I do NOT just make a pick because I feel like I have to..  If I don't like anything – I simply don't trade and this month, with the botched re-opening, has been very much a watch and wait period – and it still is.  

Come join our Premium Members in today's Live Trading Webinar 

Please register for The PhilStockWorld.com LIVE Weekly Webinar – 07-08-2020 on Jul 8, 2020 1:00 PM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4730825108469209871

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

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Top Trades for Wed, 08 Jul 2020

It's been a while since we had a Top Trade Alert.

Top Trade Alerts are the trade ideas we like the most in any given week, the ones we feel as very likely to do well and usually we are running with around an 80% success rate, which is amazing.  I often tell our Members that the reason we are so successful with our trade ideas and futures plays is not because we are so good at picking winners but because we are so good at NOT picking losers.  

When you decide to be a trader, professionally or as a hobby, you tend to sit down at your desk looking for things to trade but, like a good baseball hitter, the thing you have to learn is PATIENCE – if you don't wait for a good pitch, you are going to swing and miss a lot.  In baseball, it's just a strike but in trading, it's a loss!  

Home run hitters tend to strike out a lot because they swing for the fences and, while it's spectacular when they connect, many great home run hitters are terrible batters because that's all they do well while almost any player with an 0.300 batting average is going into the Hall of Fame.  An 0.300 trading average is not great, but, if you learn how to manage your money correctly, it can work but traders who can bat 0.500 (50%) and manages their losses will always get into the hall of fame.

Cardinals Strikeout GIF - Find & Share on GIPHYThe highest batting average in baseball history was Ty Cobb, who battet 0.367 but, because he didn't swing at pitches he didn't like, he also walked a lot and his "On Base Percentage" (times he got to first base) was an amazing 0.433 – almost half the time he got up, he got on base!  Being selective in your trades will also get you to first base (profits!) much more often but that, unfortunately, means there are certain times – or UNcertain times like these – when you are better off not swinging at all.  

While we were happy to buy stocks when they were cheap earlier in the year, there simply aren't too many bargains left and, so, not a lot…
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Top Trades for Wed, 03 Jun 2020 12:04 – IMAX

See, once they can quantify the loss, everyone relaxes:

  • Cinemark (NYSE:CNK) is up 2.6%, amid a broader market rally, after investors absorbed the brunt of the company's Q1 earnings, which showed declines and misses (though pandemic closures will weigh more heavily on the current quarter).
  • Revenues fell 24% to $543.6M in a quarter where the company closed all its theaters March 18. (It's heading toward a phased reopening starting June 19.)
  • Attributable net loss was $59.6M, vs. a year-ago profit of $32.7M. EBITDA was $66.2M, down from a year-ago $152.3M.
  • In operating metrics, attendance was 45.8M, average ticket price was up 0.6% (to $6.39) and concession revenues per patron rose 3.2%, to $4.16.
  • Aggregate screen count was 6,145 at quarter-end, and the company had commitments to open five theaters and 48 screens for the rest of 2020, and 17 theaters and 175 screens subsequent to 2020.
  • Revenue breakout: Admissions, $292.5M; Concessions, $190.4M.
  • Press release

Impact/StJ – It depends on the duration.  China is getting back to work but the rest of the World is shut down so they are off to a slow start for that reason.  The last country to get back to normal (us, for sure) will get back fastest as the rest of the World will be willing to work by then and I've been saying that will be June since January and I still think you'll be sitting in a movie theater in July and you will look around and think back on my words at how amazingly normal things already seem by then.

IMAX still very cheap at $13.60.  Not on the Watch List because we already owned them.

For the LTP:

  • Sell 20 IMAX Dec $15 puts for $3.40 ($6,800) 
  • Buy 40 IMAX Dec $10 calls for $4.90 ($19,600) 
  • Sell 40 IMAX Dec $15 calls for $2 ($8,000) 

That's net $4,800 on the $20,000 spread so $14,200 (295%) of upside potential in less than 200 days is pretty good and we're already $14,000 in the money!   Even though they are aggressive, the ordinary margin on the puts is only $2,232 so a very efficient trade!  

Thanks Stock!





Top Trades for Fri, 29 May 2020 13:12 – HMY

Hedges (from the morning post):

So this is all part of a LONG-TERM (see above for what I mean by LONG term) investing strategy meant to, in an emergency, give you the buying power you need to make adjustments during a prolonged crisis.  If it's a short-term crisis – we don't need to adjust much but what we really need to guard against is a 2008-9 situation, where the market goes down and stays down for close to a year.  

There are also, of course, adjustments we make along the way and you'll see, at some point, how we unwind our hedges during a crisis or you can go back and review our Workshop series of articles or just read the last two week's of March's posts and comments.  

That last one was May 12th and, since then, we've added more longs and today we added more hedges – that's the usual cycle we go through.  Generally, the hedges cost us about 25-30% of our upside but then we hedge the hedges in the STP with fun trades that often mitigate those damages but the primary goal is to steer our LTP and other long portfolios towards a double (in two years or less) while protecting those positions with the STP.

I think HMY is an interesting gamble.  They were on a good path pre-virus and were expecting to make 0.40/share going forward.  Let's add them to the LTP and see how they play out.

  • Sell 50


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Top Trades for Fri, 22 May 2020 12:27 – ARNC

 

  • Arconic (ARNC +6.1%) marches higher after multiple insiders bought shares this week.
  • On May 20, CEO Tim Myers bought ~13K shares at an average $10.37/share, CFO Erick Asmussen purchased 20K shares at an average $9.94, Chief Legal Officer Diana Toman acquired ~10K shares at an average $10.49, and two board members also bought shares during the week.
  • Shares spurted higher after Credit Suisse began research coverage with an Outperform rating and $22 price target, saying the company faces a "major inflection point" in Q3 as Ford and GM accelerate production.

That's more reliable as GM and F are certainly moving to more electrics and need lighter cars.   They made $60M last Q and $144M in Q4 and should be good for about $160M in earnings and you can buy the whole thing for $1.3Bn at $12 so I'd say it's really undervalued as people haven't seen enough after the AA spin-off to value it properly and the virus disrupted their story getting out.

So, ARNC is a great addition for our Future is Now Portfolio and we can start with:

  • Sell 10 ARNC Jan $10 puts for $1.55 ($1,550)
  • Buy 20 ARNC Jan $8 calls for $5 ($10,000) 
  • Sell 20 ARNC Jan $12 calls for $2.60 ($5,200)

That's net $3,250 on the $8,000 spread that's currently 100% in the money with a $4,750 (146%) potential gain in 8 months if ARNC simply stays above $12. 


continue reading





Top Trades for Thu, 21 May 2020 14:13 – MMM

Masks have come down to about $2.50 on the spot market (available right away) and right about $2 on scheduled deliveries.  We (New Age) are authorized to sell bulk masks in orders of 10M or higher to Government, Health Care or Chartity end users (no brokers), so let us know if you know anyone who needs them.  3M is very strict, proof of funds, Non-Discloses, Letter of Intent required before they will even speak to you directly but, once someone goes through the hoops, they are getting their masks directly from 3M – no BS!

Let us know if you know someone with a need, we've been closing on 10-14-day cycles. 

As a company, I'm liking 3M (MMM).  They won't make much money on the masks but they are going to sell Billions of them for $2 and that will bump their revenues up considerably.  $146.50/share is a market cap of $84.25Bn and they are dropping $5Bn to the bottom line so not super-cheap but not unreasonable – and they do have one of the hottest products on the planet.  For the LTP:

Year End 31st Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 2020E 2021E CAGR / Avg
Total Revenue
$m

31,821 30,274 30,109 31,657 32,765 32,136 32,348 31,770 32,997 0.197%
Operating Profit
$m

7,135 6,946 7,027 7,788 7,207 6,102 6,629     -3.08%
Net Profit
$m

4,956 4,833 5,050 4,858 5,349 4,570 4,971 4,932 5,357 -1.61%
EPS Reported
$

7.49 7.58 8.16 9.17 9.18 7.81 8.52     0.852%
EPS Normalised
$

7.49 7.71 8.03 8.34 8.46 9.35 9.49 8.53 9.29 4.54%
EPS Growth
%

+11.5 +3.01 +4.17 +3.84 +1.40 +10.5 +1.07 -8.77 +9.00  
PE Ratio
x

          16.0 15.8 17.6 16.1  
PEG
 

              1.95 2.61  
 

Sell 5 MMM 2022 $130 puts for $18 ($9,000) 

Buy 15 MMM 2022 $130 calls for $29 ($43,500) 

Sell 15 MMM 2022 $160 calls for $14.50 ($21,750) 

Sell 5 MMM July $150 calls for $5.40 ($2,700)

That's net $10,050 on the $45,000 spread and we'll sell more premium along the way but the upside is about $35,000 (350%) as it stands so a great way to get started on a Blue Chip industrial.    

/KC/Rn – I'd be patient but I agree it's a good buy.

Logic/8800 – Does not apply to this market.

What should I do to overcome loss in the stock market? - Quora

15 Very Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market | Seeking Alpha





Top Trades for Wed, 20 May 2020 15:49 – MU

Webinar Trade Idea on MU (from Batman) for the Butterfly Portfolio:

  • Sell 10 MU 2022 $40 puts for $8 ($8,000)
  • Buy 20 MU 2022 $40 calls for $14.75 ($29,500)
  • Sell 20 MU 2022 $55 calls for $8.25 ($16,500) 
  • Sell 10 MU July $50 calls for $2.20 ($2,200) 
  • Sell 10 MU July $42 puts for $2.10 ($2,100) 

That's net $700 on the $30,000 spread that's $12,000 in the money to start and we're doing a 1/2 sale to generate income which, in the first 2 months out of 18, is a $4,300 return on our $700 investment.  The put sale is aggressive but only net $2,197 in margin and MU is a fantastic company to own for the long-term

I'm very excited about this trade as the upside potential on the spread alone is $29,700 and if we sell 8 more sets of puts and calls, that's another potential $34,400 – that's a very nice return on a $700 outlay!  

Pictures/Nom – The link is up in the main post @ https://www.buzzfeed.com/jonmichaelpoff/reopening-in-countries-around-the-world?origin=flipboard





Top Trades for Tue, 19 May 2020 15:55 – FL

I think FL (Foot Locker) is worth a toss before we miss all the Retailers.  At $28, they are at $3Bn and if they are making  $400M – that's a p/e of 8 and we have wriggle room:

Year End 1st Feb 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E CAGR / Avg
Total Revenue
$m

7,151 7,412 7,766 7,782 7,939 8,005 7,517 7,906 2.28%
Operating Profit
$m

814 841 1,006 571 699 649     -4.43%
Net Profit
$m

520 541 664 284 541 491 413 472 -1.14%
EPS Reported
$

3.56 3.84 4.91 2.99 4.42 4.52     4.88%
EPS Normalised
$

3.59 4.32 4.94 4.09 4.62 4.96 3.74 4.59 6.67%
EPS Growth
%

+24.6 +20.5 +14.3 -17.3 +12.9 +7.34 -24.5 +22.6  
PE Ratio
x

          5.45 7.21 5.88  
PEG
 

            0.319 0.536  
 

For the LTP: 

  • Sell 10 FL 2022 $25 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) 
  • Buy 30 FL 2022 $25 calls for $9.40 ($28,200) 
  • Sell 30 FL 2022 $37.50 calls for $5.40 ($16,200) 

That's net $4,500 on the $37,500 spread so that's 733% upside potential in 18 months if FL can get back to $37.50.  Ordinary margin on the $25 puts is just $1,539 so it's a very efficient play as well.  





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Beirut explosion: the disaster was exceptional but events leading up to it were not - researchers

 

Beirut explosion: the disaster was exceptional but events leading up to it were not – researchers

A trade in waste flows from Europe to Asia. Avigator Fortuner/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Scott Edwards, University of Bristol and Christian Bueger, University of Copenhagen

At the time of writing at least 100 people have lost their lives and a further 4,000 have been wounded following an ...



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Zero Hedge

UConn Becomes First Major College In The US To Cancel 2020 Football Season

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

UConn's 2020 football season will forever remain the year that could have been.

The Connecticut flagship state university set a nationwide precedent on Wednesday when its athletic department announced that it would cancel its upcoming football season over fears tied to the coronavirus pandemic.

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The Technical Traders

Walk Through the Gold and Silver Charts to See What to Expect

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Check out the analysis of this morning’s Gold and Silver charts by our own Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist and Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com, to see what is in store for precious metals. Make sure you check out our Gold and Silver article from August 4th, 2020 for additional context behind our predictions and rationale for continued price appreciation.

Learn more about our ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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ValueWalk

Beyond Meat Has Not Disclosed Its Environmental Effects

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A recent S&P Global Market Intelligence Trucost analysis found that Beyond Meat Inc., the maker of plant-based meat alternatives, has not disclosed the full extent of its environmental impacts. This includes the amount of greenhouse gases emitted or the volume of water discharged.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Beyond Meat Has "0" Disclosure Of Environmental Impacts

Key insights from the analysis include:

  • Beyond Meat’s weighted environmental disclosure ratio, which shows what percentage of its environmental impacts it discloses...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the US Dollar Nearing Bottom? Or Is It Different This Time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The U.S. Dollar ran into a perfect storm in 2020: a pandemic (Coronavirus), an easy Federal Reserve, and trillions of dollars in government stimulus.

The result has been a steep decline in the greenback.

Looking at today’s chart, however, suggests that the US Dollar may be nearing a bottom. That is if recent history proves true.

The Dollar is testing its 9-year bullish up-trend support at (1) and US Dollar bulls are disappearing. In fact, investors are the least bullish the US Dollars (20% bulls) since 2011 at (2). Notice that each ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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