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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Top Trades for Fri, 09 Mar 2018 09:42 – IMAX and WPM

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Top Trades for Fri, 09 Mar 2018 09:42 – IMAX and WPM
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Just making a Top Trade Alert from 3/9 morning post:

Imax (IMAX) is getting cheap again at $20.35 and that trade was featured last Month on Money Talk, where we adjusted that portfolio to get more aggressive as they tested $19.  IMAX shot up to $24 in Feb but back to $20 now means yet another chance to enter this trade at not too much more than we paid at the time:

A Wrinkle in Time comes out this weekend but, much more importantly, the Avengers is coming along with plenty of other potential hit films so we still love IMAX and the Sept calls capture the summer box office.  The $15s are now $6.10 ($12,200) and the $20s are now $2.60 ($5,200) for net $7,000, which is up $1,000 (16.66%) from our entry in a month but it will still pay back $10 for a $3,000 additional profit (42%) in Sept if IMAX does manage to hold $20.  That seems like an easy way to make money, right?

So there are PLENTY of stocks we like long and, when they pay you 42% in 6 months – we don't need many of those to make really good returns.  That's how our Long-Term Portfolio can be over 80% in cash and still make 11.6% in just over 2 months  That leaves us plenty of cash on the sidelines to improve our positions (as we did with IMAX last month) and, most importantly, to hedge – because these markets are crazy and so is our leader – anything can happen and we need to be ready for it!  

Next week will be very busy with CPI and PPI and Retail Sales, the Philly Fed, Industrial Production and Housing Starts and then it's time for earnings again as Oracle (ORCL) reports on the 19th, Lennar (LEN) and FedEX (FDX) on the 20th and our 2017 Stock of the Year, Wheaton Prescious Metals (WPM) rports on March 21st and there's another bargain to be had at $19.66 – down from $22.50 in Jan.  

We don't play WPM to win, per se, we simply play them not to lose and there's huge premiums so sell so what we like on WPM is:

  • Sell 5 WPM 2020 $20 puts for $3.55 ($1,775) 
  • Buy 10 WPM 2020 $15 calls for $6 ($6,000) 
  • Sell 10 WPM 2020 $20 calls for $3.50 ($3,500) 

That's net $725 on the $5,000 spread that is almost 100% in the money to start.  All WPM has to do is be above 20 in Jan 2020 and the short puts expire worthless and the spread pays $5,000 for a $4,275 (589%) return on cash (the ordinary margin on the short puts is $1,014) and those are the kind of "set and forget" trades we love to have in our Long-Term Portfolios (we already have longs on WPM in all 3 of our bullish portfolios).