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  1. Phil

    QQQ WEEKLY Good morning!  

    Holding steady from yesterday's excitement so far.  

    Dollar at 79.85 so no major effect there with the Euro at $1.3328, the Pound at $1.586 and 88.31 Yen to the Buck.  

    Oil is $96.69 (first official day of new contract), gold $1,691, silver $32.18, copper $3.70 ($3.75 is serious improvement), nat gas $3.57 and gasoline $2.836.  

    There's no major news to distract us from earnings and both GOOG and IBM came in impressively, so we're in pretty good shape as we wait for AAPL – and even that stock is up to $507 this morning.  

    Earningspalooza today and they come hot and heavy after this one:

    Notable earnings before Wednesday’s open: ABBVABT,APDATIBHICHKPCOHDGXFNFGGDLCCMCD

    MSINVSPXRESSAPSTJTELTXTUTXWLP

    Wednesday's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
    10:00 FHFA House Price Index

    Notable earnings after Wednesday’s close: AAPLALTR,AMGNBKWCBSTCCIFBCFFIVHXLINVNJEC

    LOGILRCX,LSIMIPSMLNXNENFLXPLCMSWFTSNDKSYKSYMC,TERURIVARWDC

    IBM WEEKLY We have our IBM earnings play in the $25,000 Portfolio to keep an eye on, that one was from yesterday morning:

    I'd say bad new is priced in from last time and certainly outlook is better now than October and you can buy 5 IBM July $190/200 bull call spreads for $5.25 ($2,625) and sell 3 March $200 calls for $2.60 ($780) and 3 July $180 puts for $4.70 ($1,410) for net $435 for the $2,500 worth of long spreads if all goes well.  Let's put that in the $25KP.  

    IBM is right on target at $203.50 and, of course, we needed $200 to get the full $2,500 on our spread and the puts seem safe so now it's just a matter of dealing with the short calls – and we don't need to make any quick decisions but we'll see what rolls there are at the open.  

    Our other earnings play for this morning was GOOG and that one was from the 17th:

    GOOG;/Itrade – Big deal on GOOG is going to be mobile search.  Doubt there is much growth in desktops. Earnings are on the 22nd (next Tuesday) and don't forget Monday is a holiday so I kind of like the June $665/700 bull call spread at $21, selling the next week $725 calls for $15.50 for net $5.50 and the plan would be to roll those Tuesday (hopefully picking up some premium crush over the long weekend) and sell Feb calls to cover, hopefully for another $5 to make a net free spread.  If GOOG has good earnings, we can deal with it by rolling and if GOOG has bad earnings, the caller goes worthless and it's a free(ish) spread and we can salvage what's left or sell puts and roll down if we think it bounces back.  Let's do 3 of these in the $25KPA as it will be a good thing to follow along.   

    Savi asked in Member Chat yesterday if we should buy back the short calls and my response at the time was:

    GOOG/$25KPA, Savi – I had decided not to but may change my mind.  They are still $9 and, if we buy them back, we raise the net on our $35 bullish spread to $28 AND leave it unprotected with GOOG not even at the top of the spread.  If we leave the short $725s in place, we have a net on our $35 spread of $6 with $29 of upside before we have to pay back the weekly $725 callers and, of course, we have 6 months to roll them AND we can easily buy more longs and roll the callers to 2x and our break-even is $754 and StJ says GOOG only averages 6.7%, which is $746 so we have many, many ways to win by leaving the spread as is whereas, if we pull the short calls – we only have one way to win – and we win a lot less

    GOOG WEEKLY GOOG is right about $735 pre-market so perfect if they hold there or just a bit lower.  We paid a net of $1,650 and max pay-off is $10,500 and that bull call spread looks safe enough, and we didn't even sell puts, so it's all about how well we roll the short puts, which expire on Friday and we've got 5 more months to deal with them – we can even turn a bigger profit on this trade selling more calls but that's just greedy when we're on track to make 536% on cash already!  

    As I said in yesterday's morning Alert, it's Apple $555 or bust on earnings later and that's very true in our AAPL-bullish $25KPA and AAPL Money Portfolios – we'll press our SQQQ hedges this morning but an insurance pay-off would be a bitter pill to swallow if AAPL misses!  

    Of course, AAPL only has to hold $500 to make our Income Portfolio happy but that sure won't get the S&P over that 1,500 mark so we REALLY need AAPL to pull it out this evening for the good of the markets. 

    Without that catalyst, I don't see how we're going to avoid a pullback – so let's be careful.  Last night's action gave us a great buffer and eliminated part of the need to hedge heavily against AAPL earnings tonight but don't make any plans for tomorrow morning – it's very likely to be wild – either way:  



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Zero Hedge

1 In 4 Millennials Rely On Their Parents To Pay Some Bills - Even While Working Full Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

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Digital Currencies

"The House Always Wins": These Funds Made A Killing As Bitcoin Plunged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Volatility, neutral exposure and market making can still pay - at least for crypto hedge funds.

Despite the fact that cryptos have collapsed across the board so far in 2018, one investing axiom still holds true to this day: the house always wins. Those who have been making a market, keeping neutral net exposure and benefiting from exotic methods of trading cryptocurrencies have continued to have a positive year this year despite the fact that a lot of the underlying cryptocurrency assets have had a terrible year.

...



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Phil's Favorites

#DeleteFacebook is still feeding the beast - but there are ways to overcome surveillance capitalism

 

#DeleteFacebook is still feeding the beast – but there are ways to overcome surveillance capitalism

Not creepy at all. antb / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Yuwei Lin, University of Stirling

In the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, many people are questioning whether or not to delete their Facebook accounts. It’s not the first time this has happened. I can’t recall how many times I have seen calls to boycott Facebook – on Facebook – ever since I started using the social media platform.

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Cowen Says The Big Sell-Off In Skechers Is A Buying Opportunity

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Short Opportunity II

Courtesy of Declan.

The first chance for a short play got burned but there is a second one on offer for the S&P.

The S&P tagged channel resistance and while today's reversal off resistance didn't amount to a big percentage loss it did register as a distribution day. There wasn't any significant technical change so if this short does evolve it will do so with risk measured on a move above 2,717.


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By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

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"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida

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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

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OpTrader

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Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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