View Single Comment


  1. Phil

    Good morning!  

    AAPL $476 at the moment after bottoming at $457 overnight.  

    Nas futures right at 2,723 and still a good long over the 2,725 line.  

    Asia was mixed with the Nikkei up 1.3%, Hong Kong flat, Shanghai down 0.8%, India down 0.25% and Singapore up 0.5%.

    Europe opened flat but picked up nicely and, other than the Nasdaq, our Futures are holding up well so our biggest fear – that AAPL's earnings may be the straw that breaks the rally's back – is unfounded (so far).  

    3:55 AM European stocks are mostly lower as Apple's lackluster earnings – well it's all relative – cast a global shadow. "Despite the firm close in the U.S. and better-than-expected (PMI) data from China, European traders appear to be on a more cautious footing," says trader Jonathan Sudaria. "The after-hours release of Apple earnings have not been interpreted well." EU Stoxx 50 -0.3%, London +0.1%, Paris -0.1%, Frankfurt -0.3%, Milan -0.4%, Madrid +0.05%.

    4:32 AM Eurozone shares reverse course and turn solidly higher following improvements in German and eurozone PMI data, with even shares in France in the green despite the country's situation stayingrather depressing. EU Stoxx 50 +0.2%, London +0.2%, Paris +0.4%, Frankfurt +0.1%, Milan +0.2%, Madrid +0.3%.

    Profits at $1 Trillion Meet Valuations as S&P 500 Rallies (Bloomberg)

    Calling off the Recession?  Flash eurozone manufacturing PMI climbs to a 10-month high of 47.5 from 46.1 in December; manufacturing output 48 vs 46; services 48.3 vs 47.8; composite output 48.2 vs 47.2. The data "suggest that the eurozone economic downturn has eased," says Markit. "Forward-looking indicators…suggest that the rate of decline will continue to slow in the coming months, and a return to growth looks to be on the cards" in H1. (PR) 

    Flash German Manufacturing PMI rises to an 11-month high of 48.8 in January from 46 in December; manufacturing output 50.4 vs 47.1; services hits 19-month peak of 55.3 vs 52; composite output 53.6 vs 50.3. "Germany's private sector has kicked back into gear in January, as output rose at a pace that would deliver a swift recovery in GDP from the ground lost during (Q1)," says Markit. (PR)

    France still sucks:  Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 42.9 in January from 44.6 in December; manufacturing output 40.8 vs 43.3; services crashes to 46-month low of 43.6 from 45.2; composite output also hits a 46-month trough of 42.7 vs 44.6. "Sickly performances from both the manufacturing and service sectors resulted in the steepest drop in overall output for almost four years, while the…(speed) of job losses gathered pace," says Markit. (PR)

    Spanish 10-year bond yields may be only just above 5%, but the crisis in the real economy continued unabated in Q4, with unemployment rising to a record 26.02% from 25.01% in Q3. The number of people out of work reached 6M, or a third of the eurozone's jobless citizens. It was even worse for those under 25 as youth unemployment hit 60%. - On the bright side – 1/3 of Europe's unemployed are in Spain so, if we ignore them – things for the rest of the continent are looking up

    The euro turns positive against the dollar following Germany's decent PMI data and is +0.1% at $1.3321. Earlier, it hit a session low of $1.3288

    Almost flat earnings and a disappointing forecast from Apple (AAPL) leave a few casualties in Japanese trading today: Softbank (SFTBY.PK) – a Japanese carrier of the iPhone – is down 0.9%, Sharp (SHCAY.PK) and Foster Electric – both of which make parts for the phone – dropped 1.5% and 1%, respectively.

    Japanese exports fell a more than expected 5.8% in December, outpacing expectations for a 4.7% dip, as shipments to China slipped again and even U.S.-bound exports shrank. Imports rose 1.9%, sending the trade deficit to ¥641.5B ($7.24B), which was also wider than economists forecast of ¥548.5B. Exports to China have declined recently over political tensions between the two nations, fell 15.8% in December, while those to the U.S. slipped 0.8%, the first decline in nearly 14 months. Exports to Western Europe fell 12.3%.

     “These are bad numbers for the economy,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. and a former BOJ official. “The positive impact of the yen’s decline on exports has yet to be seen, but it is already boosting import values.”

    China's January HSBC Flash PMI rises to 51.9 from December's final read of 51.5. It's the 5th consecutive rise for the index which now stands at its highest level in 2 years. "Despite still-tepid external demand," says HSBC, "the domestic-driven restocking process is likely to add steam to China's ongoing recovery."

    China manufacturing capacity utilization in 2012 below 2008 level: UBSThe overcapacity problem in China created by booming economic growth in recent decades resulted in even lower utilization in the manufacturing sector in 2012 than during the global financial crisis in 2008.

    What Really Goes On In China.

    South Korea's Q4 GDP rises just 1.5% Y/Y, pulling growth for all of 2012 down to 2%, the weakest since 2009 and well below this summer's central bank forecast of 3%. The export-driven economy has been hit by the 1-2 punch of weak external demand and a strengthening won. The Kospi is down a fraction.

    More on Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 call: Tim Cook mentions over 2M Apple TVs were sold in the quarter, and asserts the TV is "an area of intense interest" (previous). The new iMac was also heavily supply-constrained during the quarter. The mix of current to prior-gen iPhone sales was similar to a year ago. CFO Peter Oppenheimer says new stock buybacks is something Apple continually assesses. This could be a good time for one. (live blog) (more on Apple) 

    Apple(AAPL) Sold More Than 2 Million Apple TVs Last Quarter, Tim Cook Dodges Question About Future TV Plans

    Boeing(BA) 787 to Stay Grounded as U.S. Can’t Explain FiresThe top two U.S. aviation regulators said they don’t know what led to battery flaws that prompted them to ground Boeing Co. (BA)’s 787, and defended their decision to not let the plane fly until the cause is found.

    And more oil:  Shale Oil Bonanza Reaches Australia With '$20 Trillion' Discovery. 

    Kashkari Resigns Amid 'Spotty' Fund Performance, Heads Back To Public Office.

    Is Contemporary Conservatism Just ‘Payola’? (Center for American Progress)

    The conservative movement is still an elaborate moneymaking venture (Salon)

    Dollar up and down but still around 80, oil $95.59, gold $1,681 with a lot of negative outlooks hitting them this morning, silver failed $32 ($31.975) so a good long over that line if the Dollar fails 80, copper down to $3.68 on China over-supply concerns (again).  Yes, it doesn't just magically go away…  Nat gas tested $3.50 and back to $3.58 but will suck for them when the cold snaps and gasoline refuses to lose at $2.85 but inventories today will be interesting.  Gasoline is a tempting but very dangerous short below the $2.85 line (/RB). 

    Notable earnings before Thursday’s open: ABCALK,ARGAVTBAXBMYBPOPCELGCYDOVEQTESIETN,FCS

    GWWJNSJVAKCGKEYLMTLUVMKCMMMMWW,NMMNOKORIPCPQSII

    RTNRYNSWKTZOOUALUNP,XRX

    Notable earnings after Thursday’s close: CPHDCRUS,EDEGHTETFCFLEXINFAJBHTJNPRKLACMSFT

    MXIM,QLGCRMBSRMDSBUXSCSSSXLSYNATTKRTPX,VRSN

    Thursday's economic calendar:

    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims

    9:00 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

    9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

    10:00 Leading Indicators

    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

    11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories

    4:30 PM Money Supply

    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Iran's Supreme Leader Says Trump Will "Vanish From History" In Response To Pompeo's "12 Requirements"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Iran's leadership heightened its rhetoric in response to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's bellicose speech given at the Heritage Foundation in which he outlined 12 "basic requirements" issued to Iran in the wake of Trump's pulling the US from the 2015 nuclear deal.

Pompeo's list included demands that Iran withdraw from Syria, release all US citizens, stop enrichment of uranium, end support for anti-Saudi Houthi fighters in Yemen, and allow "unqua...



more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

How the US Government Could Effectively Use Crypto

The US government could start, or officially endorse an existing crytpo coin. What they would do is build a fee into the software protocol that went to a single address that they control. This is effectively a tax. The fee could be a transaction fee, a percentage of the next block award, or a combination of both. How this works is every single transaction that occurs everywhere wihtin the system, the fee scalped goes directly to this single address that is owned by the IRS, in this case, the "New-IRS." Forget postcards. We're down to a single dude in one office chair in front of one computer. Imagine that being the IRS, because that's where this is going. The consequences of this mechanism are dramatic. First off the IRS is now one guy. Granted, this guy controls the private key for the most valuable thing in the world. This key would be the single most important key right up there with the nuclear launch code, but the system would most definitely still work. More strikingly, the US...

more from Bitcoin

Phil's Favorites

New Animal Spirits: What it takes to be wealthy

 

New Animal Spirits: What it takes to be wealthy

Courtesy of 

Michael and Ben’s new episode of Animal Spirits is out today, and it’s awesome as usual. If this isn’t part of your weekly routine yet, I don’t even know what to tell you at this point. No one is covering more interesting topics and blowing up like this podcast is.

This week’s topics:

  • Are Jack Bogle and Vanguard actually underrated?
  • Why closet indexing will never die.
  • Why money is flowing out of growth funds even though they’ve outperformed. ...


more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Daily Biotech Pulse: Insmed Presents Data, Pfenex Pulls Back On Offering, Oncolytics Listing

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related IBB Benzinga's Daily Biotech Pulse: Melinta, Ardelyx Pull Back On Offerings, Insys Awaits FDA Verdict ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Wide Market Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Lets review some big market cycles, to see where cycle pressure is building or peaking.

Cycles are like long term trend lines and are great for the long term view, of course price action leads (Wyckoff Logic) before cycles.

Lets go ...

US 10 yr: Trending higher to 4% ... Ouch. Inflation moving from Wall Street to Main Street.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The EURO looks to bottom (USD topping).

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



SSEC looks forward to another pump up to save the SP...

more from Chart School

Biotech

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

In 2013, Kyoto University’s Shinya Yamanaka was awarded one of the first Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences for his discovery of “induced” stem cells that enabled researchers to convert adult cells back into stem cells.

The Breakthrough Prize is not to be sneezed at. Founded in 2013, the prize “honours transformative advances toward understanding living systems and extending human life.” It’s also the most financially attractive aw...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>