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  1. Phil

    Good morning!

    I wish the market were open today – so many fun things going on…

    AAPL/Dawn – When something is drastically undervalued, it's pretty much a little jack in the box and the little crank just keeps turning and turning until some special note pops it.  I don't mean like Friday, that's just a wriggle in the low range – I mean a $50-$100 run over a couple of days kind of thing – some event when people say "hey, those guys make a LOT of money!"  As I noted to someone the other day, with AAPL, it could be one of about 10 things – that's what makes it such a good long.  

    They've already had the kitchen sink thrown at them as far as negatives go.  And, don't forget, those negatives are being thrown at AAPL by a media that's controlled by 6 companies – all of whom hate AAPL because they have taken control of the music business and are taking control of the publishing business and trying to take control of the TV business.  There are, annually, tens of Billions on the line here and these 6 companies will do whatever it takes to keep AAPL from succeeding:

    Keep in mind that Newsweek stopped publishing it's paper edition this year – these guys are terrified about losing control of the future – especially to someone who's not even in the club.  Jobs tried to build bridges with Disney, who are the least evil of the 6, but they just wanted to get Pixar and had no real interest in giving AAPL content, which went to Hulu and NFLX as soon as Jobs died.  

    AAPL is a disruptive force and there will be all-out content wars in the future.  So the studios and the TV stations and the news media look for any way they can to keep AAPL down – the same way they work very hard to keep Americans from seeing Al Jazeera as a viable entity – even though they are Walter Kronkite compared to Fox.  Overall, it's a long game that's being played and I wouldn't want to guess WHEN something will happen and, frankly, I don't care – because I'm much more patient than that.  

    If you buy a company for a long-term hold, you should buy it BECAUSE you want to hold it long-term, like a house.  And that means you buy it once and then, 10-20 years later, maybe you have occasion to sell it.  In between, you don't obsess over the PRICE because it doesn't matter.   People know and accept this about homes but can't accept it about stocks – even though most of us in the top 1% have a lot more money in stocks than we do in homes.  

    I put up notes last week about how just keeping money in the SPX beats almost every other ETF or hedge fund over the long-haul.  Buffett is notable for beating the S&P over 50 years but what does Buffett do – buys and holds.  This is the hardest thing I try to teach because there's no substitute for experience over time here.  Only by going through the cycles – USING a buy and hold strategy (modified with our scaling and selling premium strategies, of course) does it become clear to you what nonsense all these other "systems" are.  

    Sure it's fun to make short-term trades and I love them as you need something to do while you wait for your trees to grow large and bear fruit but it's also important to keep in mind that short-term trading is just gambling – and should never be taken too seriously.  

    A guy with an apple orchid can afford to give some away but the guy who's juggling 10 apples to survive can't afford to drop even one or two but the guy with the orchard started with 10 apples worth of seeds – and a different philosophy. 

    AAPL should buy a studio:  VIA is $32Bn, NWS is $72Bn, TWX is $53Bn, DIS is $104Bn, Vivendi $22Bn (Bertelsmann is private but around Fox's size).  They haven't because, if they bought one, the others would go insane.  Jobs took Disney stock for Pixar ($7.4Bn) and I think he intended to push for a greater alliance but Disney knew all they had to do was wait and the stock would end up getting redistributed among Steve's heirs, so there was no danger giving him 10% of the company (largest shareholder at the time).  

    The problem at the moment is Steve Jobs had a Tim Cook to run the company for him so he could run around making deals and, of course, his fanatical personality allowed him to ram deals down the throats of record companies at a time when their sales were weak and they were looking for an answer anyway.  Books are more or less a done deal as well but not magazines and newspapers nor TV or Film and that's where the real money is.  

    Tim Cook doesn't need a Tim Cook to run AAPL, Tim Cook needs a Steve Jobs to get out there and make those deals but that's very hard to replicate as part of what made Steve Jobs Steve Jobs was the fact that he came into a room with his reputation glowing around his head like a halo and every word he said carried the full weight of the AAPL Corporation – because the board learned (since they fired him and wrecked the company) never to say no to Steve.  

    You can't replicate that by hiring some guy, no matter how good he is.  

    Of course, Steve Jobs has only been dead for a year and 4 months – so maybe we should give Tim a chance! 

    By the way, Cook donated $100M of his own money last year (mostly to Stanford Hospital and Project Red to fight AIDS and such) and AAPL matched employee charity donations up to $10,000 a year.  AAPL is also spending $100M to move some of it's Mac production back to the US – starting this year.  

    This is not a company (or a CEO) playing a short game and, as we are well-aware, not many investors play the long game.  That makes companies like AAPL fantastic buy opportunities for me, Buffet and the 4 other guys left who actually like to own great companies for the long-term.  



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Zero Hedge

Simon Black On "The Coming Boom In Gold Prices..."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In June 1884, a local farmer named Jan Gerritt Bantjes discovered gold on his property in a quiet corner of the South African Republic.

Though no one had any idea at the time, Bantjes’ farm was located on a vast geological formation known as the Witwatersrand Basin… which just happens to contain the world’s largest known gold reserves.

Within a few months, other local farmers star...



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Phil's Favorites

The hypodermic effect: How propaganda manipulates our emotions

 

The hypodermic effect: How propaganda manipulates our emotions

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg departs after testifying on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., in April 2018 about the use of Facebook data to target American voters in the 2016 presidential election and data privacy. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Courtesy of Isaac Nahon-Serfaty, University of Ottawa

The scandal surrounding the improper use of data by Cambridge Analytica and Facebook in the 2016 U.S. election is reminiscent of the old debates about propagand...



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Chart School

S&P To Test 200-day MA

Courtesy of Declan

After yesterday's selling today's late recovery was a chance for bulls to catch some breadth.

The S&P came close to tagging the 200-day MA on the intraday low. The index is on a path to the lower channel. There was no technical change and relative performance remains weak.
 


The Nasdaq stalled mid-decline. Today's doji did not appear at a natural support level and the 200-day MA still looks the better support test but aggressive longs may try fish for a position here with a stop on a loss of 6,926.
...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Billionaire Sued By VC Giant Sequoia Over Collapsed Funding Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Marie Huillet, CoinTelegraph.com

Venture capital firm Sequoia is suing Zhao Changpeng, the CEO and founder of Binance, currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, for allege...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.4 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $37.16 billion.
  • Twitter, Inc. ...


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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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