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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    I see Ron's up nice and early – thanks for reminder on GOOG, looks like another nice pullback this morning.  

    No, it's not my birthday yet.  If it were my birthday, we'd be commemorating crucifixions and it would be a National Holiday with even the markets shut down to celebrate – not too long now…

    ABX/StJ – Thanks.  As long as it can be filled, then great but ABX will be popping at the open, I think.  HMY is more speculative than ABX so we'd play them differently if they both tanked and, also, we'd play them differently if they both ran up – being more likely to cash out HMY for short-term profits since it's less long-term predictable.  On INTC – I thought we had some short calls to roll.  If not – then we should do a 3/5 sale.  We'll go over it once the Portfolio is printed.  

    Dollar is 82.85 so higher than we like but keep in mind Dollar moves only matter short-term as they force a reprice in equities and commodities but they quickly adjust to the new range and then it's all about the relative moves.  So, last week it was over and under at 82.75 so it's not like 82.85 a week later is going to rock the markets.  I'd say under 82.75 is still bullish and over 83 still bearish but can range in between with little effect on the markets.  

    Gold re-tested $1,600 at 6:30 but new highs now at $1,606 with a spike to $1,609.20 when trading in NY opened at 8:30 so a preview of squeezes to come is most likely.  Forget how irrelevant Cyprus is in the grand scheme of things – all it takes is a couple of guys like Soros or Agnelopoulos or Latsis (gotta know your International Billionaires!) to pick up the phone and say (put me in 10% gold) and suddenly there's demand for a million shares of GLD, which is about 10% of days average volume, all to the buy side!  

    Wheee on oil already – $92.10 on /CLJ3!  $92.50 just tested on /CLK3 too!   Have I mentioned how much I love Futures trading lately? 

    Gasoline is testing $3.10 but nat gas holding just under $3.95 (way, way up from last year at $2.50 or less in first half) – should be some great buying opportunities there still as this is not at all priced in and $4 will cause a frenzy.  

    Copper $3.43 and a nice buy here but the $3.35 line will be tricky so I'd feel better about a cross over that on /HG.  Silver touched $29 (as predicted brilliantly at 4am) and now around $28.90 and same thing as gold, they could get a nice pop on very little panic but I'd short them at $30.  

    TZA/Yodi – Earlier than I would have liked but we only have two rules at PSW and the first one is: ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement and the second one is:  When in doubt, sell half – so that means we should be looking to take at least 1/2 off the table here and then maybe see how the day goes to decide on the rest. 

    Whoa – there goes $92 on J3!!!!  Congrats to all our oil shorters….  

    That's going to clip the Dow at the open as XOM and CVX react (not to mention the rest of the energy sector dragging the other indexes).  

    What a great start to the week! 



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Zero Hedge

Simon Black On "The Coming Boom In Gold Prices..."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In June 1884, a local farmer named Jan Gerritt Bantjes discovered gold on his property in a quiet corner of the South African Republic.

Though no one had any idea at the time, Bantjes’ farm was located on a vast geological formation known as the Witwatersrand Basin… which just happens to contain the world’s largest known gold reserves.

Within a few months, other local farmers star...



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Phil's Favorites

The hypodermic effect: How propaganda manipulates our emotions

 

The hypodermic effect: How propaganda manipulates our emotions

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg departs after testifying on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., in April 2018 about the use of Facebook data to target American voters in the 2016 presidential election and data privacy. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Courtesy of Isaac Nahon-Serfaty, University of Ottawa

The scandal surrounding the improper use of data by Cambridge Analytica and Facebook in the 2016 U.S. election is reminiscent of the old debates about propagand...



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Chart School

S&P To Test 200-day MA

Courtesy of Declan

After yesterday's selling today's late recovery was a chance for bulls to catch some breadth.

The S&P came close to tagging the 200-day MA on the intraday low. The index is on a path to the lower channel. There was no technical change and relative performance remains weak.
 


The Nasdaq stalled mid-decline. Today's doji did not appear at a natural support level and the 200-day MA still looks the better support test but aggressive longs may try fish for a position here with a stop on a loss of 6,926.
...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Billionaire Sued By VC Giant Sequoia Over Collapsed Funding Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Marie Huillet, CoinTelegraph.com

Venture capital firm Sequoia is suing Zhao Changpeng, the CEO and founder of Binance, currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, for allege...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.4 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $37.16 billion.
  • Twitter, Inc. ...


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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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