Archive for 2006

Friday Morning

Asia had some nice gains this morning with the Nikkei and the Hang Seng posting 2% gains, India picked up 379 pts (4%) – wouldn’t it be nice if we could do that just once? Europe is solidly up but not too eciting at the mid-day, probably waiting for our markets to react to the job numbers at 8:30.

The jobs number was way low (75K vs 180K expected) so we should be in great shape today so any kind of downturn would be a serious disappointment. We need the Dow to stay over 11,280 and the goal of the day is for the Nasdaq to stay over 2,230 but I won’t be worried if it can’t do it today as long as it doesn’t fall back below 2,220.

Rates should drive down on this news, especially as unemployment dropped another tenth which, coupled with strong productivity gains means the Fed should be about done. On the downside, this will drop the dollar as the rest of the world bank groups are still raising but we’ll worry about that next week.

This should rocket the miners and give yet another boost to oil companies. Between the weekend and the dollar drop we should be back over $71 today.

You have to take gains in oil and gold with a grain of salt today as the dollar may bounce back next week and quickly wipe them out. With oil, the demand picture was not that strong and next week will give us a clearer indication of the holiday driving picture. On a long-term perspective I noticed that the impressive market gains posted by Honda and Toyota yesterday were almost entirely in the small car segment which means consumers are already changing their behavior.

I am starting to buy now but if we have a huge day I will take the money and run into the weekend as a big rally might be a little overdone at this point.

=====================================

The Vonage IPO is now such an unqualified disaster that they may have to give back the money to some of the buyers! As I said back on the 23rd, before the issue: “This company is a classic .com model that needs money so they can lose much more money than they are losing now and maybe if they are really cool they will figure out a way to make money one
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Thank Goodness Thursday

Okay then! I guess I was just a day early when I said on Tuesday that we needed 2% in the next two days to get back on track. I could take credit for this actually being 2 days from Tuesday and tell you I’m a genius but I was including Tuesday when I said that – had I actually said it Tuesday night I would be replacing Bernanke next week as the Fed Chair! And, best of all (must say while dancing a jig) WE DID IT WITH NASDAQ LEADERSHIP!!! Not just any old Nasdaq leadership mind you, we found our SOX! I didn’t even mention it yesterday because the SOX topped out below Tuesday’s high and they have hurt me so many times before but today was a real punch out that has really gotten my hopes up. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24sox Now, the bad news: The Dow was rejected from the 50 dma of 11,280, but only right at the end so tomorrow’s open will be critical. The Nasdaq took off like a rocket in the last hour and needs just 11 points to hith the 200 dma at 2,230 while the S&P looked good all day and is comfortably right between the 50 and the 200. Gold closed just under $630 and just below the non-adjusted 50 dma and tomorrow’s trading will be critical for the commodity. Copper had a tough day as trading had to be halted limit down in the morning but it pulled somewhat of a recovery when it reopened but it looks to be on the verge of a major meltdown. Oil had a very odd day as the build in oil was somehow regarded as a good thing by oil traders in the morning but then somehow went back to being a bad thing by the afternoon (I guess they read my blog after lunch!). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=uso Thank goodness the Valero Rule voided those puts by heading straight up from before the 10:30 report (that’s 3 weeks in a row they’ve called the action in advance!). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=vlo Although the oil stocks still look ripe for a fall, I am getting a little tired of watching them move the wrong way and, tomorrow being Friday, I think I will wait until next week to see where we really are. I think the bulk of the action is centered around the start of the hurricane season and…
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Thursday Morning

Today is another day where we probably can’t win.

If I get my oil sell-off it will likely drag down the S&P which will drag down the other indices unless, miraculously, the Nasdaq takes the lead but that would be such a shock I would have to cash out anyway in confusion.

Asia was mixed to the downside while Europe is definitively down so there certainly isn’t much fuel for a rally to get us started. Iran’s response to Rice’s “offer” yesterday was more politicking so things are settling back to the normal state of confusion I though we had gotten comfortable with.
http://online.wsj.com/article/the_morning_brief.html

What we cannot be comfortable with is losses that breach the levels we discussed last night. A small down day is to be expected, especially if the oil sector sells off again but with an oil inventory and an OPEC meeting today almost anything can happen.

My big concern with oil today is that there will be hundreds of microphones in front of Chavez today and that’s never a good thing! We are hoping for a shock in the inventories with one or more segments building by 2M barrels or more and no drawdowns, this should be a solid indicator of lower demand, which is critical to get some downside momentum and get oil back below $70.

The price of oil has become totally disconnected from the laws of supply and demand. Last Summer oil was at $48 in May before hurricanes knocked out production and sent the price up to $70 in August. Throughout it all, there was never an actual shortage and many are arguing that that is the free market in action (pay enough and you’ll get it) but there is more oil in storage in the US today than there was in 2004, when oil was at $30 and there is more production on-line today than there was then and demand is only up 4% during that time, still at a lower level than production.

Much like the end of the housing market, we are at the end of the oil market and just like the realtors who came on TV every week to tell you there was no bubble and the fundamentals are strong, we have oil analysts and T Boone Pickens saying the same about oil. It is a little harder to change sentiment on oil than it…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Well we got our gains but they weren’t very strong although there was a nice rally right at the end, reversing an afternoon sell-off.

Maybe it’s my sunny disposition but I think we’re going up. I’m not willing to bet we’re going up but I will be quick to get on board if we do. Looking at the Dow, I think we may bob around the 11,100 line for maybe a week and then head back north. I was very encouraged this morning when oil was down and the indexes were up but disappointed at the afternoon’s reversal of leadership. It was pointed out to me however that it is the end of the month and the 2% rise in the energy sector may have been attributable to “window dressing” by funds who were heavy into oil – we will see tomorrow.

The Dow must not go below 11,000 and the S&P must not go below 1,250 but I expect the S&P to have some respect for its 200 dma at 1,258 while the Nasdaq needs to stay above 2,150 until it can make it back over its 200 at 2,230.

If we can make it through next week without dropping below my targets, by Thursday I will want to start shopping so let’s hope for the best.

Rice made a podium statement regarding Iran and had a very strange tone in the opening that reversed at the end. I don’t know who wrote it but it didn’t seem like good diplomacy to me:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114908908594267546.html?mod=home_whats_news_us

Oil traded down .75 for the day to $71.30 but the oil stocks reversed around 1pm in a move that was indicated by Valero at noon. Essentially the initial reaction to Rice’s speech was bearish for oil but after talking it over the traders decided to keep the Iran fear factor in play.

Gold traders were very concerned about a sudden outbreak of peace and gold dropped $11 to finish at $649. As you can see below, the fear factor was almost identical to oil as the Iran statement came out at 11:30 with both commodities dropping 2% and holding there until oil was pumped up in the afternoon and gold followed just a bit in case something was really up:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=GLD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=uso

Another 2pm factor were the FMOC minutes which only seemed to cloud the issue of rate hikes further. At…
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Watch Out Wednesday

Today cannot be a good day unless the Dow gains 400 points. This is not likely as the Nikkei lost 400 points last night although Europe is taking things fairly well so far this morning. India’s economy is growing at a 9.3% pace, 30% better than expected and we’ve already gotten good numbers from Japan and China looks like it’s growing around 10% as well. India’s growth is largely in the service sector, as anyone with a telephone knows, but China does put pressure on commodities, especially oil. We need to get used to rising commodity prices as the falling dollar is here to stay as the rest of the world is growing faster than we are. Fed policies of fighting inflation by keeping the economy in check may have made sense when the US was the world’s greatest economy by a mile but 20 years of persuing that agenda have pulled us back into the pack with many contenders nipping at our heels. As we discussed last night, the S&P will be the one to watch today but anything less than a full reversal of yesterday’s losses will only confirm the alarming downtrend we have been seeing. The SOX are just destroying any chance of a Nasdaq recovery and all 30 Dow components were losers yesterday so at this point all we can do is keep in cash and just cheer for a quick wipeout, maybe another 10% down, so we can get back to bargain hunting. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24sox Gold is at a serious inflection point, hovering below it’s dollar adjusted 50 dma of $675. If it breaks through there it should fly past $700 again to test $730. If it is rejected there, we may be seeing $580 again. Oil took a turn down in Europe today, erasing yesterday’s BS gains as traders run in fear of today’s inventory report which will almost certainly show a build despite the holiday driving weekend. The dollar is down 7% from April and oil is at $72, which seems high but 93% of $73 is $68 so we are actually back near the top of the channel we’ve been in all year, not breaking higher as it looks on a chart. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24wtic Again, I am still the only person in America who adjusts for the dollar but trust me, I’m right and everyone else is wrong – so oil, on the above…
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Terrible Tuesday Wrap Up

If that was a test we just failed!

The Dow did break it’s technical, it crossed 11,100 on the way down to 11,094. That puts us very close to a very terrible ten thousand level… The Nasdaq retreated right back to 2,164, 30 points above last week’s low spike but just barely above the low settle of 2,160 below which we are sure to test 2,025, which is where I now want it as THAT may finally be enough to consolidate for a real rally. The S&P was equally pathetic and landed right on the 200 dma at 1,259 but still above last week’s low spike of 1,245.

That makes the S&P tomorrow’s key indicator as any downward open will put it in a terrible spot. CNBC said decliners led advancers 4:1 but I challenge you to find that many positive stocks. Worst news of the day was that volume finally came in during the last hour and losses accelerated into the bell (note to the S&P – stopping at the 200 dma because you ran out of time to go lower is not what we call holding the line!).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d

Oil went up but, as expected, oil stocks went down anyway. Tomorrow’s inventory should prove very interesting. This is holding in with my theory that demand was poor this weekend and those in the know are selling ahead of the reports.

Gold got off to a good start but settled flat, also as expected. As these commodity moves are occurring against a falling dollar (lowest since last April but still 5% higher than winter ’04) they are actually bigger than they look.

All in all, a terrible, terrible market with virtually no redeeming qualities whatsoever – that probably means we rally tomorrow but I’m not going to hold my breath but my bull market detector has been going off (Yahoo Finance is slow) although it could also be a bear rush.

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What the heck are people selling Google for?

The stock kissed the 200 dma today in the last 15 minutes of trading and looks more likely to break down to $332 than go up to $395. Why is this happening?

Their Q1 market share is up to 50% (6% better than last year).

Q1 Internet ad sales increased 38% from last year to $3.9Bn.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060530/internet_advertising_google_yahoo.html?.v=1

The Q2 estimate for Google is $2.19, even…
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Testing Tuesday

The world markets have lost their confidence over the weekend with Asia and Europe both off in the .5-1% range over fears of a global economic slowdown driven by rising rates and commodity pricing driving inflation (same as it ever was). Smaller world markets are also facing a lot of pressure as doomsayers are predicting their dependence on foreign capital makes them a crash risk (it does). What they don’t say is that perhaps the fact that the US, Russia, China, India, Europe… all have so much foreign investing in their economies is because we are actually starting to achieve a fluid Global Economy and are moving towards a more open and efficient World Market just like we always wanted to! http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114895250881765923.html?mod=home_whats_news_us I imagine the economists who warn of these risks are the old economists who still think the boarders between European countries mean something more than arbitrary lines to the people who take $99 round trip weekends to 20 different countries the way we would travel from state to state. Today’s Dow tragedy will be people coming to their senses over GM (up 15% last week) and Wal-Mart coming in with sales guidance at the low end of the range. Exxon should also trade down as nothing blew up over the long weekend (although Iran continues to be a problem) so it will be amazing if the Dow can manage a positive day. We need a lot more than a positive day today to confirm a rally, we need about 2% in the next 2 days from all the indices to demonstrate that last week was anything more than a bounce. The Dow is, unfortunately, key as it is sitting just below its 50 dma at 11,280 and has not reversed an upturn through the 50 since September, when it faked a recovery into an even larger drop (but at least set us up for the October rally). Relative international calm is being offset somewhat by a falling dollar on commodities as gold holds steady despite the falling dollar. Oil is being ratcheted up on riots in Afghanistan and Iran taunting the US, saying we couldn’t invade them if we wanted to because we don’t have the troops for it (true) and the upcoming hurricane season which are all being pointed to to justify the 100% increase in oil prices in 24 months. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aDPhnm0uO6Wc&refer=Europe One thing nobody talks about…
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Zero Hedge

DNC Lawsuit Exposes Corruption, Data Breaches, Raises Questions About Death Of Shawn Lucas

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via Disobedient Media

In June of last year, attorneys Jared Beck and Elizabeth Beck of law firm Beck and Lee filed a class action law suit against the DNC and ...



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Phil's Favorites

Huge Artificial Increase in Credit Scores: Economic Ripple Effect?

Courtesy of Mish.

More than six million U.S. adults will have personal bankruptcies disappear over the next five years as bankruptcy data and defaults roll off credit scores.

As a result, credit scores have surged.

Fair Isaac Corp, the inventor of credit scoring algorithms, reports Credit Scores Hit Record High.

Credit scores for U.S. consumers reached a record high this spring while the share of Americans deemed to be some of the riskiest borrowers hit a record low—a potential boon for lending and economic activity.

Consumers’ improving fortunes reflect falling un...



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Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. stock futures inch higher ahead of packed data week (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures posted mild gains in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, ahead of a heavy week on the data front including consumer-confidence and nonfarm-payrolls numbers.

China's Industrial Profits Rise 14% as Global Trade Improves (Bloomberg)

Industrial profits climbed to 572.8 billion yuan ($83.6 billion) last month, the National Bureau of Statistics ...



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ValueWalk

2017 List Of The Best Investing Blogs On The Planet

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Every year Tobias and I sit down to pick out fifty of the best investing blogs on the planet. This list is by no means complete and is certainly not in any particular order. If you’re an investor take some time to read through the great blogs on this list, they’ll provide you with an awesome starting point for your investing education.

If you think we’ve missed a great investing blog, stick it in the comments section below.

Here’s 50 of the best investing blogs on the planet for 2017, plus a couple more:

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

We...



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Chart School

Wyckoff Bitcoin target $5,000

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The bitcoin rally is not occurring because every thing is awesome! Bitcoin is on a scream to $5000 USD because every thing is not awesome, and it can be said that this event is the dawn of change for world fiat currency system.

More from RTT Tv

Point and Figure charts are excellent for price forecast from phases of accumulation (and distribution), the forecasts are not a point were price stops, the forecasts are zone were to watch out for a change of character in price action to be aware that supply (or demand) may enter the chart.





Click...



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Digital Currencies

One Professional Investor's Take On Bitcoin

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog

We all know Dirty Harry’s viewpoint about opinions, but I wonder what Detective Callahan would think about today’s bitcoin mania. It seems like every Tom, Dick and Harry feels obliged to weigh in about the manic action of the their favourite virtual currency, yet I am curious how many of these crack pundits have ever even transacted in bitcoin.

I am by no means an expert, but have at least owned bitcoins, mined th...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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