Phil's Newsletter

Mid May Market Movement – Still Churning at the Same Levels

Here we are again.

Back on May 3rd, our self-explanatory headline for the Morning Report was: "Monday Market Movement – Dow 34,000, S&P 4,200, Nasdaq 13,900 – Again" and, this morning, we're at 34,346, 4,169 and 13,385 respectively.  The Dow is up 1%, S&P flat and the Nasdaq is down 3.7% respectively.  The Dollars those indexes are priced in, however, have lost 1.5% of their buying power during the same two weeks as our currency is teetering on the cliff of the May lows.  

This is the stealthy way the market can take your money when you don't realize it – especially in an inflationary environment - so we need to keep on our toes.  For example, I could have traded a $32 shares of AT&T (T) for 10 gallons of Gasoline (/RB) on May 3rd but now I'd be lucky to get 9 gallons for the same share.  I would have needed 55 shares of T to trade for an ounce of gold at $1,760 but now I need 58.33 shares at $1,867.   

You can delude yourself that your portfolio hasn't lost any money but losing buying power is the same thing.

Interest Rates and High Debt - CME GroupJapan's unstimulated (in Q1) GDP fell 5.1% and that's very likely where we'd be without $2Tn being added to ours in March.  Japan is the World's 3rd largest economy at $5Tn but they are the king of debt at $13.5Tn, which is 270% of their GDP after adding 20% last year alone.  As long as people are still willing to lend Japan money, I'm not too worried about the US as our own $28,000,000,0000,000 in debt, which is "only" 140% of our own GDP.  Japan will be our canary in the Debt coal mine but take that warning seriously when it does come. 

Of course, the reality Japan does have to face is that they can't really afford to add more stimulus as they get dangerously close to the 300% mark in debt to GDP (and already past it in Total Debt) and only the fact that they are getting away with paying 0% on their bonds is keeping that island nation afloat on their sea of debt.  Imagine if they paid 5% interest on
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Monday Market Mania – Kaplan Speaks!

There are 12 Fed speeches this week.

6 of them are by Robert Kaplan, who is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and was a Vice-Chairman at Goldman Sachs (GS) with a 23-year carrer there before being sent off to the Fed.   Kaplan is the Fed's Inflation Hawk and that means, most likely, he's here to cool off the markets so make sure you have your hedges up to date (see Friday's PSW Report) as it's not only time for retail earnings (which could be rough) but also options expire on Friday – so strap yourselves in...

"What you don't know is, depending on how long that goes on, whether that starts to get embedded in inflation expectations, and you worry that inflation expectations start to get to be more elevated, and then you are getting them elevated to a level that is not consistent with anchoring them at 2%.  That's the part I'm concerned about – this is a risk for me." – Kaplan

The Cooler Poster. ID:1613472 | Cool posters, Cooler, The cooler movieOn Friday, Kaplan said contacts in industries affected by the global semiconductor shortage, for instance, have told him it could now take as long as two years to resolve the issue.  Clogged chip supply chains led to a record jump in used car and truck prices last month. And it's not just chips, Kaplan said on Friday: it's unclear how long bottlenecks could last in many industries.  There are signs inflation expectations are beginning to rise. Consumers’ estimates of inflation for the next five years shot up to 3.1% – the highest in more than a decade, a University of Michigan survey showed on Friday.

Also signaling caution is AT&T's (T) spinning off Warner Media to merge with Discovery (DISCB) for $43Bn in cash.  T bought Warner Media for $81Bn just 3 years ago and has been criticized for holding $169Bn in total debt – the most of any non-financial company.  T will maintain 71% ownership in the combined company, so a good deal for them overall but it seems very likely they are reducing debt ahead of a cycle which will raise their borrowing costs and T pays…
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TGIF – Hedging for Disaster with our Short-Term Portfolio Review

What is hedging? | Advanced trading strategies & risk management | FidelityAren't you glad we added hedges last week?  

We did a review of our Short-Term Portfolio last week and our timing was excellent as this has been a rough week for the markets but we were able to relax as our STP bumped up from $245,485 to $281,128 as of yesterday's close, gaining $35,643 (14.5%) for the week.  Meanwhile, our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) positions, which the STP is designed to protect, are down $79,067 (4%) since our April 16th review, so our STP is mitigating about 1/2 of the damages – as it's designed to.  Of course the STP kicks in a bit harder between a 10-20% drop but no real signs of that so far as we're bouncing nicely this week after a 7% drop in the Nasdaq (more on that later).

Let's take a look at where we stand now in our STP:

  • XRT – We went from 20 to 70 last week and caught a nice downturn and a lot of retail earnings are coming out next week – so we'll leave these for now – even though we should take 1/2 off the table now that we're even(ish).  

  • SCO – During the week we doubled down on the long calls as oil got expensive ($66.50), taking advantage of the lower price on the calls.  We also shorted Oil Futures (/CL) in our Live Trading Webinar and we bottomed out at $63.50 – up $3,000 per contract – that's another way we can enhance our returns while we wait for these longer options to play out.  At net $13,000, this is a $30,000 spread if oil is under $60 in January and half of our gains are uncapped – so I still like this spread but we do expect oil near $70 in the summer – so it's going to be a rough ride.   Rembmer, these are hedges – if the economy collapses, oil goes down and we win.  If the economy stays hot – we still think $60 is too much for oil – that's what makes it a good hedge.  


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13,000 Thursday – Nasdaq Poised to Fail Critical Support

"Transitory" Inflation is still here – month 5.

While the Fed tries to convince us it won't last, inflation is soaring higher and higher and bonds are dropping as that market doesn't believe a word the Fed is saying – especially after yesterday's decade-high 0.8% jump in Consumer Prices – double the projections by the usual crew of leading Economorons.  How long inflation readings persist on the high side has implications for when the Fed decides to start withdrawing monetary stimulus by paring back bond-buying and raising interest rates from near zero.   

“Transient does not mean one month. As supply shortages run up against aftershocks from fiscal stimulus, and the base for comparison remains low, the CPI will continue to run hot into the summer. The impact of the Colonial pipeline shutdown on fuel prices will also have to be monitored closely.” — Andrew Husby and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economists

Transitory pandemic influences clearly contributed to the surprise but there’s residual firmness in core inflation that’s hard to ignore,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. Aside from the reopening effect, “there was still some residual firmness that suggests risks around inflation in the near term are still skewed to the upside.”  Wages have shown signs of picking up, and supply chain challenges have elongated delivery times and driven materials prices higher.

Tranportation Services have not jumped 5.8% since 1975, when the Fed Funds Rate was at 7%.  More Federal Spending means more inflation, not even Powell can pretend that it doesn't and Biden still has proposals to spend $4Tn more on Infrastructure along with the Fed's ongoing $2Tn giveaway program and, of course, 0% borrowing rates.  If either the stimulus bill is dropped or the Fed allows rates to rise to contain inflation – the blowback on the market could be tremendous.

It's not just the $28Tn National Debt we need to be concerned about but the $10.5Tn of Corporate debt that is 100% higher than the last time the market crashed – as companies have been on a low-rate binge ever since.  And what is the main thing corporations spend all that borrowed money on?  Buying back their own stocks to make their static earnings look like they are making more…
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Which Way Wednesday – Dow 34,000 Edition (again)

Here we are again.  

After testing 33,900 last night, the Dow is back to 34,100 pre-market and we did spend April building a base at 34,000 so it should, at least, be bouncy.  If we look at this as being rejected at 35,000, it's a 1,000-point run so the weak bounce takes us to 34,200 and the strong bounce would be 34,400 – nothing less than that is going to impress us today and I don't think we'll even get to the weak bounce as sentiment seems to be shifting a little. 

Like Bitcoin or Dogecoin, it doesn't take much of a dip for the bullish investors to start to wonder if maybe they overpaid for their positions after stupidly chasing the price up 35% from the November lows.  Were the people who valued stocks in November all crazy?  Did none of them understand how awesome the earnings potential of these companies are?  

Well, we're in the middle of earnings season now and it's not that stocks are not hitting their estimates – it's more like they are disappointing the bulls who have bought into fantasies that are impossible to realize.  We are re-opening this year but it's already mid-May and things are certainly not "normal" by any stretch of the imagination so why would the market be worth 30% more than the 2019 average of 26,500 on the Dow?  

Did the economy grow 30%?  No, it did not.  Then where would these magic beans have come from that made this valuation beanstalk grow up to the clouds?  We all know the answer – it's stimulus.  There are not 30% more people in the World spending 30% more money with 30% more jobs – the opposite is closer to the truth after losing 3.3M people – roughly the population of Los Angeles.  Another 160M people in the World have been infected and the jury is still out on the long-term effects of covid and the long-term drain on our our heath system for people with chronic conditions.  

Out of 160M cases in the World, 64M of them are actively infected.  The World has never had more active cases at one time.  817,345 people caught covid Saturday and we are partying like
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Televised Tuesday – Money Talk Portfolio Update

Down we go!  

As you can see from the chart, the Russell 2000 is almost back to where we were in March, which is only a bit above where we were in January, which may mean that all this rallying on nothing at all has been a huge mistake and people may be waking up and realizing that it's not just Dogecoin that's a hustle but the entire stock market bubble.  Are people beginning to realize that a truly good investment is one that returns profits that stay ahead of inflation over time and not just empty promises of an uncertain future?  Nah.

I must apologize to Elon Musk for pointing out yesterday that Tesla (TSLA) is also a scam – that stock hasn't stopped selling since and it's dropping like Dogecoin, back at the March lows in pre-market trading.  Aside from Mush admiting Dogecoin is "a hustle" on Saturday Night Live (see yesterday's report for full coverage), the catalyst for the sell-off is Tesla's very poor April performance in China (which accounts for 1/3 of TSLA's sales) with only 25,854 cars sold, down 27% from March AND they abandoned plans to expand the Shanghai plant – a sign TSLA doesn't see their sales bouncing back as electric car competition heats up in China (and globally).

At a recent Chinese Auto show, an unhappy customer clambered atop a Tesla to protest the company's handling of her complaints about malfunctioning brakes.  Videos that went viral showed a woman wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with the words "The brakes don't work" and shouting similar accusations while staff and security struggled to restore calm.  Police in Texas are investigating a fatal crash involving a Tesla Model S that hit a tree and burst into flames.  Rescuers found victims in the passenger and rear seat, not the driver's seat but TSLA claims the car was not on auto-pilot. Federal regulators are investigating the crash, and have a total of 24 probes underway of accidents involving Teslas operating on Autopilot.

All these were known issues with TSLA but that hasn't stopped people from buying the stock for as much at $900, close to $1Tn in market…
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Malware Monday – Cyber Attack Cuts off 45% of East Cost Fuel

Uh oh.  

Colonial Pipeline, whose system transports fuel across the East Coast said Saturday that it had been victimized by a ransomware attack and that it had halted all pipeline operations to deal with the threat.  Colonial did not say what was demanded or by whom, but ransomware attacks are typically carried out by criminal hackers who seize data and demand a large payment in order to release it.

This presents a new challenge for an administration still grappling with its response to major hacks from months ago, including a massive breach of government agencies and corporations for which the U.S. sanctioned Russia last month.  While there have long been fears about U.S. adversaries disrupting American energy suppliers, ransomware attacks by criminal syndicates are much more common and have been soaring lately.

Cybersecurity is going to become a much bigger long-term cost for businesses.  Just like Rent-A-Rebel is often used to jack up oil prices by bombing a pipleline or pirating an oil tanker – hackers are now added to the arsenal of market manipulators, who can knock entire companies off-line for days.  Brian Bethune, a professor of applied economics at Boston College, also said the impact on consumer prices should be short-lived as long as the shutdown does not last for more than a week or two. “But it is an indication of how vulnerable our infrastructure is to these kinds of cyberattacks,” he said.

Speaking of market manipulation, Elon Musk was on Saturday Night Live this weekend and people were betting he was going to promote Dogecoin and the price of the "coins" went flying higher in anticipation of the event but Musk is always one step ahead and there was more money to be made shorting so instead he took the opportunity on several occasions during the show to poke fun at Dogecoin, pointing out that it started as a joke and going as far as to call the whole thing "a hustle":

While this all may be hysterical to Elon Musk, a 40% drop over the weekend is going to have a lot of traders waking up to margin calls so get ready for a
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Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working?

It's payroll time again.

We added 916,000 jobs in March (adjustments pending) and under 1M added will actually be a disappointment for April but I think the pace of hiring may have slowed somewhat.  Normal job growth is roughly 300,000 but we're adding back the 22M people who were laid off during the shutdown and, so far, we're still about 4M short and that's not including the normal growth we should have had

I know the ever-rising market makes us think the economy must be fantastic but it's not really.  Even with the endless stimulus, a lot of sectors are hurting and they are sectors that employ a lot of people like restaurants, movies, clubs.  We're getting back to normal but we're not normal yet and half the year has already gone by.   Fortunately, we've had $6Tn in stimulus measures in the first 4 months which is pretty much our entire GDP for 4 months – so who's going to notice a few holes in our economic ship?  

In fact, labor shortages now threaten to restrain what is otherwise shaping up to be a robust post-pandemic economic recovery. Some businesses are forgoing work, such as not bidding on a project, delivering parts more slowly or keeping a section of the restaurant closed. That reduces the pace of the economy’s expansion. Other companies are raising wages to attract employees, which could inflate prices for customers or reduce profit margins for owners.  Analysts say the labor shortages should ease over time as more potential workers are vaccinated, schools fully reopen and federal benefits expire, though the process could take months and the impacts are already being felt.

Companies are scrambling for workers.  Notice this McDonalds is offering a $500 sign-on bonus but still sells value menu items for $1.  Even if they make a 20% profit on those items, a new hire has to serve 2,500 of them before the restaurant just makes back the signing bonus and those of us who have worked in McDonalds know know that's about a month's worth of french fries or coffee as serving over  just over 100 per shift is as good as it gets

8:30 Update:  Oopsie!  Looks like I was right and the Economorons were…
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Thursday – US Covid Cases Drop but India’s Cases Surge to New Highs

Only 794 deaths yesterday.

45,085 people were infected and that's with 32% of the US population fully vaccinated and 45% having had at least one dose of the vaccine.  Unfortunately, we're now facing problems with the 1/3 of Americans who do not want to be vaccinated – because they believe Bill Gates is trying to put a tracker in their bodies or whatever other nonsense they hear from Fox "News" and other conspiracy-mongering outlets.  Not getting vaccinated is NOT a personal choice – it puts all of us in danger from vaccine-resistant variants resurging all around us – even as our own vaccines wear off over time.  

This is something John Oliver made a great report on this weekend:

The emergence of new variants, and whether vaccines are effective against them, is a subject of continued concern as a variant first detected in India, called B.1.617, spreads across the country. There is also a risk that further variants will arise there as the country’s outbreak grows, experts say. Another worrisome variant, P.1, is wreaking havoc across South America.  In the United States, experts now believe that attaining herd immunity is unlikely because of the spread of variants and hesitancy among some people in the country to be vaccinated. The variant that has caused the most alarm is B.1.1.7, which is about 60 percent more transmissible than original versions of the virus.

The Indian health ministry recorded about 410,000 cases in 24 hours, a new global high, and 3,980 deaths, the highest daily death toll in any country outside the United States. Experts believe the number of actual infections and deaths is much higher.  India’s pace of vaccinations has become a source of global concern as its outbreak devastates the nation and spreads into neighboring countries, and as a variant first identified there begins to be found around the world.

There were road blocks, fires and riots in southern Bogotá on Tuesday after a week of protests and strikes over tax reforms proposed by the Colombian government.In Colombia, demonstrations over the past week against the poverty and inequality that have worsened the lives of millions since the pandemic began have been met with a powerful crackdown by their
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Whipsaw Wednesday – Back Where We Started From

What a crazy week already.

In the last 3 sessions, the Dow has gained 400 points, lost 400 points and now gained it again and all that only takes us back to where we were on April 19th – 34,100.  Same with the S&P 500 – just under 4,200 now and the Nasdaq has lost a bit of ground, now 13,600 for the 100, who are mostly done with earnings.  So what's the next catalyst going to be?  The Fed can't loosen and Janet Yellen even said they may have to tighten soon, before inflation gets out of control.  We know what earnings and forward estimates look like so the only thing left to take us another layer higher has got to be MORE FREE MONEY!  Come on Uncle Joe – baby needs a new pair of shoes….

Oil is back to $66.50 on enthusiasm for the re-opening though oil was only $55 avg for 2019 – before the virus and more like $60 in 2018 but $50 in 2017 and $45 in 2016 – so I really don't see how $66.50 is going to play out over the long haul.  Of course, all commodities are inflating rapidly so oil is just on that bandwagon, along with the ever-weakening Dollar.

Still, according to Caesar's (CZR), weekends in Las Vegas are sold out "for the foreseeable future" and, even though the stock lost $1.7Bn last year and plans to lose $800M this year, people are still paying $20Bn at $95.50 for the recently-bankrupt company.   Why?  I have no clue.  Cruise ships are also back in the money, as are airlines though none of them proect much more than small profits this year and nexts.

As with any gambling, people just want to play and that's good for CZR and good for the markets at the moment.  

Just remember, the longer you keep playing – the more likely it is you are going to lose! 

Finally, courtesy of BofA,


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Phil's Favorites

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



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Digital Currencies

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

 

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images

By Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles; ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).

“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.

“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”

A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the remova...



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Politics

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

 

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images

Courtesy of James L. Gelvin, University of California, Los Angeles

The images and reports coming from Israel, Jerusale...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

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Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.