The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Trading Webinar – 09-20-18

 

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Trading Webinar – 09-20-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:01:47 Checking on the Markets
00:04:25 DJIA
00:06:45 OOP
00:17:43 Shanghai Stocks
00:22:19 Population
00:44:27 AEIS
00:57:13 WPM
01:04:37 Checking the Portfolios
01:11:08 DIS
01:15:15 Butterfly portfolio
01:20:44 Trade Ideas
01:26:55 Short Term Portfolio
01:31:23 KHC
01:37:07 WHR
01:43:02 Trade Strategies

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, posted one day after recording. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





  • Phil – great calls this past week, esp. friday and monday. in the old days I would have let Prechter et al scare me into trimming my longs and going short at just the wrong time. your feel for the markets is Tiger-esque. CHK, HOV, BX, TLT and XLF are big winners for me today. My biggest up day in a long time. Thanks!

    Terrapin22

  • Phil/ Thanks to your obsessive bearish anxiety over the last few weeks, I made money on the long side this month, phased gradually to bearish, came in net short today and managed to make money both long and short all week, ending today [and each day this week] in the green. I don't know how you do it, but thank you.

    Zeroxzero

  • Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.

    Craigsa620

  • Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!

    Jfawcett

  • Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.

    Zeroxzero

  • Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

    Bjkeck

  • I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.

    Jordan

  • Phil, thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you. I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week. thank you!

    DawnR

  • Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!

    Jelutuck

  • Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)

    Winston

  • I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

    Brenteaz

  • I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.

    Pharmboy

  • Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.

    Scotbraze

  • Phil, I've got to give you props on the ICE spread play. Tremendous call! I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today. Nice 57% return ($2,300) over a mere 3 trading days! This is why I dig your site!

    Samlawyer

  • Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.

    Winston

  • What a quarter! (AAPL, etc.) "People react; PSW'ers anticipate." Thanks everyone for a vibrant board.

    Silentstorm

  • Greetings Phil, I am an Economist at Harvard and some of my colleagues and I would like to let you know that we follow your posts on SA, and find your analysis refreshing, rigorous, and acute. Great work! Though many of us (including myself) have our work covered in the Wall St Journal, in many ways your macro commentary is more fearless and accurate than what is generally found in that venerable publication. Kind regards, Daniel

    Daniel

  • Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.

    DDay

  • Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too. I've learned so much and I hope you'll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way.

    Where

  • It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

    Pirateinvestor

  • Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

    Ban2

  • The legendary Phil Davis has done it again with his call to "get out of the market now" (12/05/2017). Congratulations Phil, and while I am at it, I again would like to Thank You for your advise given me in March '09, when you said "unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then get in this market with both feet"...... and what a ride that was !

    1234gel

  • Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.

    Smasher

  • Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

    Barfinger

  • Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!

    Jromeha

  • Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

    Redfern1

  • Phil - It is nice being more discipline with my trading. Generally, I am out earlier than most, but my results, overall, are much better than they were when I was trying to squeeze 80 cups of lemonade out of one lemon! On the other side, I am learning the value of rolling and turning losses into non-losses or small gains. I so appreciate the time you have spent with me and others who have benefited greatly from your knowledge. Thank you!

    Dclark41

  • I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

    Autolander

  • All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

    Seaquill

  • Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

    Ether

TGIF – Quad Witching Today, Window Dressing Next Week

China turned around this morning.  

It's funny because everyone thinks they are "winning" the trade war.  The Chinese Government is planning to cut tariffs on imports to their favored trading partners, which we assume will no longer include the US.  This will disadvantage US exporters to China and encourage Chinese firms and consumers to buy goods and services from other trading partners but it's also a nice tax break so it's boosting the Shanghai this morning, up 2.5% for the day at the close.  

Other than that, the news has been very quiet and we're expecting to drift along into the close today as it's a Quad Witching Day in which quarterly options and futures contracts expire (there are 4 kinds), which is often punchuated by high-volume (what is that?) moves and yesterday was already a busy day on SPY as we punched in a new high at 2,945 and we would have liked to short 2,950 but we'll take a cross below 2,940 on /ES to short that with tight stops:

Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Sep 20, 2018 292.64 293.94 291.24 293.58 293.58 100,288,900


continue reading





Why do so many people fall for fake profiles online?

 

Why do so many people fall for fake profiles online?

File 20180917 158216 t52jx0.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Do you want to be friends with this person? Sasun Bughdaryan

Courtesy of Arun Vishwanath, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

The first step in conducting online propaganda efforts and misinformation campaigns is almost always a fake social media profile. Phony profiles for nonexistent people worm their way into the social networks of real people, where they can spread their falsehoods. But neither social media companies nor technological innovations offer reliable ways to identify and remove social media profiles that don’t represent actual authentic people.

It might sound positive that over six months in late 2017 and early 2018, Facebook detected and suspended some 1.3 billion fake accounts. But an estimated 3 to 4 percent of accounts that remain, or approximately 66 million to 88 million profiles, are also fake but haven’t yet been detected. Likewise, estimates are that 9 to 15 percent of Twitter’s 336 million accounts are fake.

Fake profiles aren’t just on Facebook and Twitter, and they’re not only targeting people in the U.S. In December 2017, German intelligence officials warned that Chinese agents using fake LinkedIn profiles were targeting more than 10,000 German government employees. And in mid-August, the Israeli military reported that Hamas was using fake profiles on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp to entrap Israeli soldiers into downloading malicious software.

Although social media companies have begun hiring more people and using artificial intelligence to detect fake profiles, that won’t be enough to review every profile in time to stop their misuse. As my research explores, the problem isn’t actually that people – and algorithms – create fake profiles online. What’s really wrong is that other people fall for them.

My research into why so many users have trouble spotting fake profiles has identified some ways people could get better at identifying phony accounts – and highlights some places technology companies could help.

People fall for fake profiles

To understand social media users’ thought processes, I created fake profiles on Facebook and sent out friend requests to 141 students in a large university.…
continue reading





Thursday Failure – Shanghai Stocks Down 20% for the Year and Social Security Closer to Failure

Harmless trade war?

That's how the Conservatives are spinning it and many are drinking the Kool Aid and ignoring the stress and strain we are putting on the rest of the World – especially China, where the Shanghai Composite is officially a bear market, down 20% for the year and almost 50% off it's 2015 highs.  2015 was another crisis we ignored in China – until we had a "flash crash" in August and a proper 10% correction in the beginning of 2016 – even as China was "recovering" a bit.

When people tell you that what happens to the second largest economy in the World doesn't effect the largest economy in the World, those people are idiots and you should never listen to anything they say to you – ever again.  Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan, for his part, is doing his best to minimize the concerns of retail investors so he can keep dumping stocks on them:

"If you look at tariffs on $200 billion (worth of Chinese goods), and this may all get passed on to American consumers and they have to pay another $20 billion (on Chinese imports), it's a $20 trillion economy, so the actual economic effect is not dramatic," Dimon said.

"We can add tariffs to more things and the Chinese can retaliate in other ways and I don't think all that's good. It's not a devastating thing, it's not a war, it's a trade skirmish that can have negative economic effects."

Dimon is not going to say what happens in China has no effect but he's mimizing the impact and misleading traders by using the 10% figure that costs $20Bn but that 10% tariff escalates to 25% at the end of the year ($50Bn) and then Trump plans to double the number of goods that are taxed ($100Bn) so a smart reporter would ask Dimon – does $100Bn matter then?

You can nod your head and agree with Dimon (after all, he's a rich guy, so he must know stuff and he would never lie…
continue reading





Animal Spirits: Borrowing From the Future

 

Animal Spirits: Borrowing From the Future

Courtesy of 

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss:

$250 trillion in debt

Dalio could lose 1% a day for a year and still be worth $400 million

Don’t take asset allocation advice from billionaires

It’s hard to pinpoint how many assets are really indexed

Survey

Using the lottery to spur savings

The long game

J.P. Morgan going after affluent millenials 

The incredible shrinking hedge fund

In the matter of Cadaret, Gran & Co. (UWTI)

Breakout

Listen here

Charts Mentioned

 

 

 

 

 

Tweets Mentioned

Recommendations

Lake Success

North Star podcast





Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 2,915 Again

"Here come those tears again

Just when I was getting over you

Just when I was going to make it through

Baby here we stand again

Like we've been so many times before


Even though you looked so sure" – J Browne

While it's been fun watching the Dow 30 blast higher, the S&P 500 has been struggling to get back to where we were at the end of August when I warned on "Toppy Tuesday – S&P 2,900 so it’s 3,000 or Bust!" as well as "Will We Hold It Wednesday – Record Highs Edition" and we were shorting the S&P (/ES) Futures at 2,915 and we got another entry yesterday as we topped out at 2,917 just before 3pm.  

At the time, we were shorting Gasoline (/RB) at $2.10 and now it's $2, which was good for gains of $4,200 per contract if you rode it out all the way (we were in and out several times since) and we shorted Oil (/CL) at $70 (and we're short again now) and went long on Coffee (/KCN9) as it tested $100, which worked at the time but now it's down to $94 so a lot of things are not improving – including the Nasdaq, which is down from 7,700 to 7,500 (2.5%) while the S&P has bounced back.

As the song asks – what's different this time?  Aren't we just setting ourselves up for more heartache as we're teased yet again by the record highs?  I believe there's a better chance in profiting from a re-test of 2,860 (our 30% Line on the Big Chart) than there is of seeing 2,920 so it's a very nice risk/reward play as stopping out at 2,921 is a $300 per contract loss while 2,870 (which we hit last time) is a $2,500 per contract gain.  Futures trading is all about looking for risk/reward scenarios that are massively in your favor and then trying not to be wrong more than 80% of…
continue reading






 
 
 

Zero Hedge

EU Justice Commissioner Quits Facebook In Disgust, Doubles Down On Regulatory Threats

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The European Commissioner for "justice, consumers and gender equality" abruptly closed her Facebook account this week, describing her account on the social media platform as a "channel of dirt" after she told a Brussels news conference that she received an "influx of hatred" on the network, reports Euractiv

Vera Jourová noted that her decision to leave Faebook was not to avoid criticism by the public - as her mail...



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Phil's Favorites

Sometimes it would be better to just say nothing

 

Sometimes it would be better to just say nothing

Courtesy of 

Throughout the summer, various cartoon characters throughout the financial media have been relentlessly pointing out some divergences in the stock market between internals and price.

The S&P 500’s price has been doing just fine, hanging around just below all-time highs hit during the winter and then finally bursting through, accompanied by a new record high for the Dow Jones yesterday.

But beneath the surface, some stocks had been doing better than most of the other stocks. To which poorly-trained or ill-informed commentators attached a ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - Bullish pressure present

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

If Venezuela or Argentina conducted business in bitcoin then their savings and wealth would be a lot better off. Yes Bitcoin and Litecoin have been volatile over the last few years,  but nothing like Bolivar (Venezuela) or the Peso (Argentina). 

You say they could use the US dollar, yes maybe so, but those who use the US dollar have to the yield to the US Federal Reserve where as bitcoin is decentralized and those who use it yield to no one.

In the next 12 to 18 months the lightning network and atomic swaps logic will forge Bitcoin and Litecoin together as the go to crypto decentralized currency. Of course massive risk, so the investor should be warned you can lose all your funds.  

Time to review the demand ...

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ValueWalk

Blackstone President Jon Gray Talks About C Corp Status

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

CNBC Transcript: Blackstone President Jon Gray Speaks with CNBC’s David Faber Today

WHEN: Today, Friday, September 21, 2018

WHERE: CNBC’s “Power Lunch

Image source: CNBC Video Screenshot

The following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with Blackstone President Jon Gray on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F 1PM – 3PM) today, Friday, September 21st. The following is a link to video of the interview on CNBC.com:

Blackstone president Jon Gray says company is open to, but still studying whether it should become a C-c...

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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper breaking out after large decline, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper over the past few months has been hit hard, as sellers drove it down nearly 25%.

This decline brought it to the price point (2), where four different support lines came into play, which looks like a support cluster. As the decline was taking place, momentum was hitting oversold levels.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– This week Doc Copper is experiencing its strongest rally this year, as it breaks above steep falling resistance.

Should Doc Copper contin...



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Insider Scoop

Cantor Fitzgerald's 7 Buys For 7 Biotechs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Cantor Fitzgerald has high hopes for patients with rare and orphan diseases. 

“We believe that biotech has entered a golden age of innovation and productivity across many therapeutic areas,” the firm said in a Friday note. Cantor expanded its portfolio with seven new neuro-innovator and platform-enabled therapeutics companies.

The ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>