TGIF – Indexes Turn Red for 2018, Japan in Turmoil

chartDown 6.9% for the month!

That's the damage on the Nikkei after yesterday's 4.5% dip, putting Japan's market down 10% for the year (so far).  China's Shanghai dropped 3.4% in response to Trump's Tariffs but, so far, China has not responded in kind so, as we expected, the indexes are finding a bit of support at S&P 2,640, which is exactly what we prediced they would do on Wednesday morning.

Remember:  I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – that is the extent of my powers.  The rest is up to you!

In the case of our S&P call from Wednesday morning's report, the 80-point drop from 2,720 to 2,640 was good for gains of $4,000 per contract (you're welcome!) and now we'll see what kind of bounce we get on the way to a full correction at 2,400, which will be good for another $12,000 per contract if all goes well (or badly, I suppose).  

As 2,640 is the 20% line on our Big Chart (a level we drew more than a year ago) and as the fall from the 25% line at 2,750 was 110 points – we'll be looking for 22-point bounces to 2,666 (weak and satanic) and 2,688 (strong) and, if the weak bounce fails to hold today – look out below on Monday!  the next proper support for the S&P Futures (/ES) will be the 15% line at 2,530 and the next stop below that is our 2,400 goal (2,420 to be exact).  THEN we get excited to buy things – despite the Trade Wars.

Until then, we have plenty of longs and plenty of hedges so we just sit back and watch and wait.  The US and European markets are closed next Friday (my Birthday, actually Thurs but it's celbrated on Friday this year) and Easter is Sunday and that Monday will be slow and that whole week will be slow, as will the weak before (next week) so not the best time to determine what levels are holding up but a great time to take a break!

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  • Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational. I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade. Keep it up…. Thanks


  • Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…


  • Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!

    Rookie IRA Investor

  • Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!


  • Well that was a fun day. Cashed out my GS 140 calls for about 35% profit and my AAPL calls for 38% gain. Not bad for 40 minutes of work. Back to 85% cash.

    Singapore Steve

  • I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.


  • Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.


  • CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!


  • Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!


  • We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.


  • I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.


  • Phil, did you by chance publish the weekly webinar on Youtube yet? I have been watching these and they are awesome. Unfortunately, I can't cut out of work to attend live webinars. Again, they are just awesome content – thank you.


  • Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.


  • Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!


  • WISH TO EXTEND A BIG THANK YOU! I netted about $18,000 on the short Jan puts and the annualized ROI/M is mind boggling! Hope to meet you some day and buy you and your significant other a nice dinner. Best Regards Newt


  • WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.


  • I traded with Phil for approximately three years, and consistently averaged 80% returns yearly... some of which was due to my skills as a trader, but much was a direct result of what I learned as a member of Phil's site.... both from Phil, and the many talented traders that hang out there. Phil... if you are reading along... thanks, again for the approximately $ 3 mil I made tagging along with you.... in order to make you feel good for the work you did... I gave the government 50% of it all, so you made your contribution....


  • Great call on expe Phil! Went long 50 shares and sold for a nice profit! And Great call on the nkd shorts as well. I didn't use a stop that tight and was able to cover for a $400 gain. Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! It's almost always quite profitable! Looking forward to Vegas!


  • Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.


  • Great calls this week!


  • Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.


  • Dear Phil, I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership. It is hard for me to follow all evening as I am in Tokyo but I can join you at the beginning of the market and read the next day.


  • Thank you Phil we appreciate all the work you put in to teach us valuable lessons about investing.

    Pat Swap

  • Phil, have to thank you for saving me today. I think the discipline I have learned from this site has helped me as much if not more than the actual picks.


  • Phil - Rode the /QM down from 99.65 at 7pm and now I'm taking your advice, taking the $$ and going to enjoy a restful night sleep. I don't post often so I want to say thanks for sharing your incredible market acumen with all of us. Your site has a unusually talented group of investors (and some characters) and I enjoy my days trading more because of it.


  • All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.


  • Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.


  • USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.


  • I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. I've learned a lot (and still am) about your trading strategy, but also I see a man who truly cares about our country, America. Thank you.


  • Thanks super helpful re: UGN example…..other inflation/market-correction-defensive-related play you threw out that has jammed UP in less than a month is TITN 6/14 $15 puts, up 40%. Excuse my enthusiasm but haven't had those types of gains in multiple plays in years let alone days doing it on my own…….maybe I should host the PSW infomercial!!!!


The Weekly Webinar 03-21-18


The Weekly Webinar 03-21-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:52 Checking on the Markets
00:06:05 Petroleum Status Report
00:10:27 DX
00:11:50 CVS
00:25:11 Compound Rate Calculator
00:33:00 Virtual Portfolio Recap
00:38:53 Income Portfolio
00:40:50 Trade Ideas
00:44:48 Butterfly Portfolio
00:45:54 Long Term Portfolio
00:51:34 Short Term Portfollio
00:54:41 ABX
00:59:50 FOMC Meeting
01:10:55 Active Trader
01:13:12 Seeking Alpha Market News
01:16:26 Trade Ideas
01:19:25 Fed Statement Tracker
01:28:47 SBUX
01:29:13 Seeking Alpha Market News
01:34:54 Active Trader
01:45:55 CMG
01:51:12 Checking on the Markets

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!


Eleven Million Millionaire Households – a new record


Eleven Million Millionaire Households – a new record

Courtesy of 

?Some data of interest on the state of wealth in the United States…

The number of millionaire households in the U.S. jumped by more than 700,000 last year, thanks to surging stock prices and housing values, according to a new report.

The U.S. now has more than 11 million millionaire households, according to Spectrem Group, up more than 6 percent from 2016. The number of new millionaires and the total population of millionaires set records. Spectrem defines millionaire households as those with at least $1 million in investible assets, not including primary residence.

The stock market went up 25% last year and bonds didn’t lose much value. Thanks to the President’s year-end push for a corporate tax bonanza coupled with a steady, patient central banking environment where nobody pressed particularly hard on the trigger, anywhere in the world.

Since the financial crisis, the number of millionaire households has nearly doubled…

The number of households worth $5 million to $25 million grew by 84,000, to 1.35 million households. The number of households worth more than $25 million jumped by 10 percent, increasing by 16,000 to a total of 172,000.

Meanwhile, Boomers in the US are out of the doldrums emotionally and financially – they’re buying homes in retirement communities around the country at a rapid pace.

Here’s the Wall Street Journal:

The population of federally designated retirement destination counties rose 2% last year, almost three times the rate of national population growth, according to census county population estimates for the year that ended July 1.

Almost three-quarters of a million Americans during that period moved into one of the 442 counties that the Agriculture Department tags as retiree spots.

The figures are a fresh sign that the nation’s 74 million baby boomers—those born between 1946 to 1964—have dug out from the 2007-09 recession that locked many of them in place when home and stock values plummeted.

Also via the Journal, Millennials are having babies

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Trade War Thursday – Trump Takes on China

Image result for trump trade war china cartoonWhat an exciting day.  

Trump will be rolling out his economic sanctions against China because what we really need now is more instability in the Global Economy.  Earlier this morning, the PBOC raised their rates in-line with the Fed so we can probably expect trade retaliation in-line with Trump against US manufacturers.  It's certainly going to be interesting, whatever the case.  

While it's very exciting to have International Diplomacy carried out via unilateral decisions announced on Twitter – it does undo DECADES of careful negotiations carried out via shuttle diplomacy by dozens of our Nation's most experienced representatives.  Sadly, once you break Humpty Dumpty, it's very hard to put him back together again but the century is still young – I'm sure we'll be able to fix it later…

Meanwhile, as we expected, the market was not too thrilled about the Fed hiking rates and we made some big money in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here) playing them bearish into the meeting and even our Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (RB) shorts turned around this morning for $300 per contract gains as gasoline came back below $2 and oil fell back below $65 (both are our stop lines now and both good for new shorts with tight stops above those lines).

As I said in yesterday morning's Report, 2,640 is our immediate downside target on the S&P (/ES), on the way back to 2,400, which would be $15,000 per contract gains on shorts below the 2,700 line.  We checked our portfolio hedges in yesterday's Webinar and we're generally content with our positions and looking forward to a nce correction – so bring on the Trade War!

FaceBook's (FB) Mark Zuckerberg attempted to put the brakes on their crisis with a timeline that spun the narrative but people aren't having it and Facebook is down again this morning, back at $167 but it will be interesting to see how hard Congress comes down on them as the very data they are accused of mishandling was used by GOP operatives to swing the elections for several high-ranking members of Congress – not to mention the President himself!

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Facebook is killing democracy with its personality profiling data


Facebook is killing democracy with its personality profiling data

File 20180320 80657 1jzg6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Facebook’s data know exactly what fits best in your mind. leolintang/

Courtesy of Timothy Summers, University of Maryland

What state should you move to based on your personality? What character on “Downton Abbey” would you be? What breed of dog is best for you? Some enormous percentage of Facebook’s 2.13 billion users must have seen Facebook friends sharing results of various online quizzes. They are sometimes annoying, senseless and a total waste of time. But they are irresistible. Besides, you’re only sharing the results with your family and friends. There’s nothing more innocent, right?


Facebook is in the business of exploiting your data. The company is worth billions of dollars because it harvests your data and sells it to advertisers. Users are encouraged to like, share and comment their lives away in the name of staying connected to family and friends. However, as an ethical hacker, security researcher and data analyst, I know that there is a lot more to the story. The bedrock of modern democracy is at stake.

You are being psychographically profiled

Most people have heard of demographics – the term used by advertisers to slice up a market by age, gender, ethnicity and other variables to help them understand customers. In contrast, psychographics measure people’s personality, values, opinions, attitudes, interests and lifestyles. They help advertisers understand the way you act and who you are.

Historically, psychographic data were much harder to collect and act on than demographics. Today, Facebook is the world’s largest treasure trove of this data. Every day billions of people give the company huge amounts of information about their lives and dreams.

This isn’t a problem when the data are used ethically – like when a company shows you an ad for a pair of sunglasses you recently searched for.

However, it matters a lot when the data are used maliciously – segmenting society into disconnected echo chambers, and custom-crafting misleading messages to manipulate individuals’ opinions and actions.

That’s exactly what Facebook allowed to happen.

Quizzes, reading your mind and predicting your

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Federally Funded Wednesday – S&P About to Retest 2,640 as Fed Withdraws Stimulus

Yawn, are we there yet?

This is the same chart we were using since the beginning of February and, in March, the markets have been full of sound and fury which has signified nothing as all that bluster has us right back where we started, with the S&P 500 finishing yesterday's session at 2,716 – exactly 3 points higher than we were 30 days ago.  

When we did finally break out over the Strong Bounce Line at 2,728, the S&P flew all the way up to 2,800 (3/12 and 3/13) when I said we were going to short the S&P (/ES Futures) back to 2,400 and we hit 2,700 (up $5,000 per contract) on Monday and 2,720 is a weak bounce from that.  My comment on the overall market was:

"I said we plan on deploying more cash when the S&P drops to 2,400, which is 15% down from the current 2,800 but that includes people paying $1,600 for a share of Amazon (AMZN) that generated $4.56 in profit last year for a return of 0.285% – Japanese bond investors laugh at Amazon shareholders!  Come on folks, this is ridiculous – markets can't sustain these kinds of gains."  

Now you know what I meant by that comment – markets can't go up just because – there needs to be real money flowing in and a real economy to sustain it – we have neither of those things.  Yes, the economy is growing, but not fast enough to justify those kinds of market moves and that's why we have our 5% Lines™, especially our Must Hold Levels™ – to remind us where the REAL value is in the markets and that keeps us from losing our heads and chasing ridiculous valuations.  

It also tells us when things are too cheap and, just like there was a mania to buy stocks at sky-high valuations, there's a mania to sell perfectly good stocks like GE (GE), L Brands (LB) or Chipotle (CMG) at fire-sale prices – surprisingly in the midst of the same rally (see our March 12th Top Trade Review for those trade ideas). 

Even now, Amazon (AMZN) added back $41.50 (2.7%) yesterday as it retests $1,600,…
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Phil's Favorites

The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI


The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI

Robert Couse-Baker/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Brendan Canavan, University of Huddersfield

Alexa’s creepy laugh is far from the most worrying thing about her. This is despite the fact that Amazon’s digital assistant – which allows users to access the internet and control personal organisation tools simply by speaking to the device – has been reported to spontaneously chuckle to herself. We shouldn’t be too concerned about he...

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Zero Hedge

Trader Shares "A Few Ideas For Avoiding A Friday Faceplant"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Bloomberg macro commentator, Richard Breslow

Don’t mistake this as a trade recommendation, but it is all right to do nothing. Trading when you believe you have an edge is when it is time to step in. If you are there, then go for it. But trading merely because things are moving around is a day-trading concept, not an investment thesis.

It’s important to match trading style, objectives and realistic liquidity assumptions to how you view volatility vs risk. They are very much not the same thing. Made even more so if you think the Fed equity put has been eliminated. It hasn&#...

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Insider Scoop

41 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (NASDAQ: OMEX) shares climbed 118.42 percent to close at $8.30 on Thursday after the company disclosed positive Mexico Court Decision nullifying a previous denial of application for Don Diego project.
  • Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) shares gained 35.31 percent to close at $15.75. The maker of a cataract surgery drug called Omidria realized a "big win" from Wednesday's release of the U.S. government spending bill, according to Stat News. Specifically, a policy included in the spending bill includes a pass-through exte... more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Cycles Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker. uses Bartel's logic to find dominant cycles in a time series.

Cycles are present in markets, as shown below the 22 and 40 day cycles on calendar days looks like the best fit. Therefore the chart below suggest we can expect a bitcoin low either now or in a few weeks.

Bitcoin has not been effected by the SP500/Dow sell off which is a very bullish sign, bitcoin may see safe haven money chasing price very soon, add to this the sister coin, litecoin, isgetting ready for wider use with the massive e-commerce payment market (litepay, litepal, atomic swamps, lightening network).

The bitcoin move is not over!


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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Speaks With CNBC's "Power Lunch" Today

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

WHEN: Today, Thursday, March 22, 2018

WHERE: CNBC’s “Power Lunch”

Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F 1PM – 3PM) today, Thursday, March 22nd. Following are links to video from the interview on

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.


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Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>