TikTok Boom

 

TikTok Boom

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice, @profgalloway

I recently vacationed with friends. As we were wrapping lunch one day, my friend said, “Watch this.” His 11-year-old son walked to the couch and lay on his side. With his arm extended in front of him cradling his phone, he … went vacant. For the next hour, he was comatose. No signs of life other than his open eyes and an occasional finger swipe. “We have to make him stop, pull him out, every time,” his dad said. My head filled with images of opium dens in China. Something about the stillness, the lying on his side.

Elon Musk’s manic toggling between shit-posting and falsehoods have distracted us from what is the ascendant tech firm of 2022. TikTok now commands more attention per user than Facebook and Instagram combined. Downloaded more often than any other app for each of the past five quarters, it was the world’s most visited site in 2021. TikTok has 1.6 billion monthly active users — more than Twitter, Snapchat, and LinkedIn combined.

TikTok bills itself as a social media company, and the app is disrupting Meta by virtue of usurping attention. But that’s not all it’s doing. You can like, comment, and share, but these features exist as leverage points for one thing: watching videos. TikTok is a streaming platform, and the testicles being kicked over and over by TikTok belong to another company, Netflix. Over the past four years, ByteDance (parent company of TikTok) has gone from half the revenue of the original gangster of streaming to double. Six months ago Netflix was worth more than $300 billion — today it’s at $80 billion. And at its last valuation event, ByteDance was valued at, wait for it … $360 billion.

We’ve been watching the streaming wars for the past few years, but we were looking in the wrong place. “Video-based social media”


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  • I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

    KMisko

  • Hey Phil -- I want to thank you every chance I get for helping me to grow my previous portfolio to being profitable enough to pay off some debts my family had and left me with $1,000 left to use in the markets. You should know that your premium membership is amazing on many levels, You and your readers offer a ton of economic and statistical analysis that I was able to use in my clerical level job in finance. It's a shame that someone as talented and honest as you is not on television each night providing a true service to the investing public and not the clowns and hucksters that are talking up their books to dump on retail investors. Sorry for the long post. I had to say something to you that I never thought I would have the opportunity to. You helped put my family in an almost debt-free life through the stock and option plays that I made during my time as a customer of your service and that has made us very happy. You are a good man and I wish you and your family many years of joy and happiness. I wish I could do ads for you!

    DaveJ

  • Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.

    Escohen5

  • I went LEVEL 4 because of YOU! That's right, buddy!! And I started putting my options trades in my comments...also because of YOU! That's hard to do. I Love PD!! He's just a man about Work!

    Chris Valley (author)

  • Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

    Josiah

  • Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

    CanuckBob

  • Phil/ Thanks to your obsessive bearish anxiety over the last few weeks, I made money on the long side this month, phased gradually to bearish, came in net short today and managed to make money both long and short all week, ending today [and each day this week] in the green. I don't know how you do it, but thank you.

    Zeroxzero

  • Probably the best approach and method I have ever seen for the public and I have worked for some serious traders at the biggest houses doing research. Those guys all have various forms of inside info that you and I do not and cannot have. Davis simply has a great system based on a very deep understanding and experience that gives him market savvy that is very real. A very smart guy and he shares it for a fee. He knows how to use options to great advantage and make money trading.

    DowntoEarthThinking

  • Hey Phil – I ignored your call to sell those AAPL $580s for $1 so not sure whether to thank you or not (just kidding) for my $5 winner. Actually I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, that was an uncanny call.

    TheChaser

  • The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.

    Winston

  • I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

    Gel1

  • Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

    Chasw

  • Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…

    Arivera

  • I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.

    Snow

  • I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

    Captain Mogul

  • CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!

    Scottmi

  • Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

    JBaker

  • I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.

    Knightpilot

  • The virtuous trade / Phil throws out so many ideas, that understandably he rejects all calls for a running total of how all ""quoted"" ideas are performing – it would be unworkable. But without such a list, I think it behooves us to call out the trades that have made a difference. January 13 expiration is going to be a big month for me as a significant number of sold put positions will expire worthless. One example of the power of patience and leaving well alone: VLO – sold Jan 13, 17.5 puts for $3.45 – and this trade was placed in August 2011. VLO is currently a tad over $35! And as time went by, and I got more experienced – with the help of Phil and the contributions from board members, I started selling short term puts and calls around this position. Sometimes having to roll, sometimes doubling down but always knowing what I was getting into, and feeling very calm and focussed that whatever happened I could handle it. And if I couldn't then there was always Phil to lend a helping hand. All in all, my profits since August 2011 would qualify as a tidy addition to any earnings from the day job. Thank you Sir.

    Winston

  • Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

    jmm1951

  • You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

    Dclark41

  • Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

    RMM

  • Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.

    Hoss

  • thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

    Kwan

  • Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!

    zeroxzero

  • Phil, I've got to give you props on the ICE spread play. Tremendous call! I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today. Nice 57% return ($2,300) over a mere 3 trading days! This is why I dig your site!

    Samlawyer

  • Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.

    Mkozberg

  • Great calls this week!

    SNS1

  • Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!

    Jfawcett

  • As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges. Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double." Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain. Thanks, Bob

    RJK

PhilStockWorld May Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gifImage result for one million dollars animated gif$2,693,308! 

That is down $315,599 (10.5%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios since our April 14th review.  That is EXACTLY where we want to be as the purpose of the STP hedges (see Tuesday's review) is to MITIGATE the damages on the way down – not completely eradicate them.  If you try not to have any losses at all you end up trading yourself into a neutral corner and – if you are doing that – why not just be in CASH!!!?

And we are mainly in CASH!!! with $1,770,488 of it in the LTP and $1,182,271 in the STP – there's actually more cash than equity in both.  Because we sell a lot of puts, having low equity doesn't take out our risk of loss in a downturn but the cash helps us make adjustments – which is what we'll be concentrating on today.  

Losing 10% in a 20% down market indicates we are properly hedged and ready to take advantage of the dip.  We don't need our sideline money for more hedges and our positions are fundamentally sound – dropping less overall than the broad market.  Now we have to do the real work of going over them, one by one, and seeing who needs help and who needs to go – although we've purged this portfolio so many times it's full of nothing but strong, strong stock choices.  

Short Puts – We are happy to own C, CIM, CROX, KBH, LEVI, LVS, MGM or TM if they go lower.  W we don't like but it's a leftover from a short.  The only put side adjustment is going to be:

  • COIN – We're obligated to own 500 shares at $200 ($100,000) less the $22,500 we sold them for so $77,500 committed here and it costs us $68,475 to close it out.  We can instead sell 15 of the 2024 $100 puts for $52 and that's $78,000 so the roll costs nothing and we still have $22,500 in our pockets so the net is $85 if we are assigned ($127,500).  So we're increasing our obligation by 50% but we'll have 200% more shares for our money if assigned.  


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Peter Zeihan: COLLAPSE of Globalization, POPULATION, and World Order (w/Brad Carr)

 

Peter Zeihan discusses trends towards worldwide population collapse and deglobalization, and his new book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist, studies and writes about international affairs. He founded the firm Zeihan on Geopolitics in 2012. Previously, Zeihan worked for the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor.

 

On YouTube

 





Finally Thursday – S&P 500 Hits our 3,840 Target – Ironically on TGT Guidance

We're happy because we are in CASH!!! 

We've had all of our Member Portfolios mainly in CASH!!! all year long, WAITING for this correction and it's finally here.  All we have to do now is make sure this is only an overshoot of the 4,000 line on the S&P 500 and not a consolidation move on the way to 3,680 at which point we would have to consider that we over-estimated the mid-range of the S&P 500 at 4,000.  That was our estimate for this year from last fall and it is possible we have 20% swings down to 3,200 (where 3,600 would become the midpoint) but we thought 3,680 would be the bottom – though that was a pre-war estimate.  

That's what we THOUGHT was going to happen but now let's clear our minds and look at what is ACTUALLY happening (see my almost Nobel Prize-Winning "Microwave Oven Theory of Behavior").  Yesterday, the market was SHOCKED that Retailers are having trouble passing price increases along to Consumers.  This is squeezing their margins.  Newsflash:  The Gas Stations, Restaurants and Utility Companies got to them first – they don't have anything left to give!  

Once again, our last two years' Economy was 25% STIMULUS – it was not real.  About $4,000 each year went to our beloved consumers and that is about 6.66% of the average family's total pre-tax income and about 10% of their after-tax money.  That's gone and inflation has eaten another 10% so Consumers are reeling from shock.   

Historic inventory continued in March, but is it all price illusion, too? |  Seeking AlphaThere's also an inventory issue.  Last year, people were buying things for their yards and living rooms and this year there's not enough luggage and bathing suits to meet demand as people head out for their first vacations in over two years.  Consumer demand doesn't usually flip that fas and big box retailers are used to seeing trends and ordering inventorie over YEARS of change – not months.  

They are facicing very high shipping costs, rising labor costs, rising fuel costs to heat or cool thier huge stores, higher interest on carried inventory, etc. and they haven't been able to pass those costs along – yet.  Also, the mix they have is wrong because, in inflationary times,…
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Why Everyone’s Bearish

 

Why Everyone’s Bearish

Courtesy of 

Are things really that bad? Looking at some of the sentiment data, you would think the unemployment is 10% and the stock market is down 50%.

The most recent BofA Global Fund Manager Survey is pretty gnarly. You have the lowest reading of “managers expecting a stronger economy” since The Great Financial Crisis.

The last time average cash balances were this high was after the dotcom bubble burst.

Investors are getting bearish, but consumers have had their heads between their knees for months already, bracing for impact. Josh and I were talking about this last night; we’ve never seen confidence this low outside of a recession, with the exception of 2011, when double-dip fears never came to fruition.

So what gives? I think that it’s never been more clear that we’re heading into a recession, both for those on Wall Street and especially those on Main Street. It feels like prices are going up every day. How are people supposed to keep up? For the first time ever, gasoline is now above $4 in every state.

And so while we might not be in a recession, at least not technically, it’s very possible that we already are in one. The red lines in the chart above might be filled in the next time we show it.

Sentiment fell off a cliff because anticipation is such a powerful emotion. A recession that you see coming is psychologically more damaging than one that blindsides you.  It’s the fear of what might be, which actually can be bullish. I’ll come back to this in a second.

On Derek Thompson’s podcast, I said one of the things that worries me is we have yet to see the impact of inflation. We know they’re going to show up in the numbers, they just haven’t shown up yet. Well, this week we got a pretty good read on that, and it ain’t pretty.

Yesterday, Walmart had its biggest daily decline since 1987. Yes, that


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BNN Money Talk Portfolio Review

I love the Money Talk Portfolio!  

It's a real test of skill since we can only do adjustments on show days and tonight I'll be on Money Talk (Bloomberg, Canada) at 7pm for the first time since Feb 16th.  At that time, we were up 140.9% at $240,926 and we had gotten very defensive, moving to 2/3 CASH!!! ahead of the coming correction – which we felt was long overdue.  The S&P was around 4,400 at the time and is now 7.3% lower, at 4,076, and our portfolio is down 7% at $223,779

This is exceptionally good as our newest trade, LABU (Biotech ETF) was a huge mistake at the time and we're down $16,630 on that which means there is nothing wrong at all with the rest of our positions and just the one that needs to be fixed.  We still have $145,344 (65%) in CASH!!! – and it should be a good time to deploy some as there are real bargains out there.  

In the MTP, we seek to find "bullet-proof" positions that we won't need to adjust from month to month as we only get one random day each quarter to make our changes.  Though LABU was a bit of a risk, it's a generally conservative portfolio but we felt we could afford a risk as we were up 140% at the beginning of year 3.  

The market is still a bit iffy – so we're not going too crazy but there are some compelling moves to make.  

  • BYD – 20% off the top is not bad and still good for a new trade at net $8,362 on the $40,000 spread so we have $31,638 (378%) of upside potential if BYD can get to $75 but 8 months is too much pressure so let's buy 12 more by rolling 20 2023 $55 calls at $8.85 ($17,700) to 30 2023 $45 ($17.50)/65 ($8.50) bull call spreads at $9 ($27,000).  Now it's a $60,000 spread with a lower target and it cost us $9,300 to make the roll so in for net $17,662 overall and a $42,338 upside potential.  No more short call sales until we resolve the short Jan $75s, of course.


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Zero Hedge

These Are The Most-Downloaded Apps So Far In 2022

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Whether they’re providing a service like ride-sharing or acting as a mere source of entertainment, mobile apps have become an integral part of many peoples’ day-to-day lives.

But which apps are most popular among users?

In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist's Carmen Ang uses data from a recent report by Sensor Tower to show the top 10 most downloaded apps around the world in Q1 2022 from the Google Play and Apple App Store.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Is Elon Musk getting cold feet? Why the entrepreneur may be trying to pull out of buying Twitter

 

Is Elon Musk getting cold feet? Why the entrepreneur may be trying to pull out of buying Twitter

New twists and turns, as Elon Musk raises concerns about Twitter before the purchase deal is complete. (Patrick Pleul/Pool via AP, File)

Courtesy of Anup Srivastava, University of Calgary

Has Elon Musk developed cold feet? Is he experiencing buyer’s remorse? Or is he trying to create drama for the markets, true to his public persona? Or could Musk be negotiating for a better price?

Musk started buying Twitter stock in January. On March 14, he announced a 9.2 pe...



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Politics

Energy at the End of the World Seminar - Peter Zeihan

 

Energy at the End of the World Seminar - Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan's Seminar to Naval Post-Graduate Course

 

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what's known about this smallpox cousin

 

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what’s known about this smallpox cousin

Monkeypox causes lesions that resemble pus-filled blisters, which eventually scab over. CDC/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University

On May 18, 2022, Massachusetts health officials and the Centers for Disease Control ...



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ValueWalk

3 Retailers That Defied First Quarter Headwinds

By MarketBeat. Originally published at ValueWalk.

These Retailers Gave Positive Guidance For 2022

The takeaway from Q1 earnings for the retailers (NYSEARCA:XRT) is slowing growth and margin compression. Those factors have the sector down across verticals but not all retailers are feeling the same pain. Companies like Footlocker, V.F. Corporation, and Canada Goose were not only able to limit damage to their margins but provide a positive forecast for the year. While we can’t promise conditions won’t worsen, we can say these high-quality apparel manufacturers are defying the odds and producing results. In two cases, a...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Gold Miners (GDX) Decline Find Support At $30?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been a rough past few weeks for the Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

A bearish reversal in April has sent shares spiraling into May, down nearly 25%.

Today’s “weekly” chart of the Gold Miners (GDX) from Marketsmith.com highlights this reversal, as well as important technical support.

As you can see, GDX has come down sharply of late. But what’s important to note here is that the Gold Miners are testing critical price support at (1). As you can see, GDX is trading near the $30 level that has been price support and resistance several times over the past 6 years.

Will the sharp se...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Chart School

Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

In 1979, Volker was equal to Goliath as he had a good chance of crushing inflation, today the debt Goliath is massive.

In the video below David Rosenberg explains the FED is on a 'Volker' mission to crush inflation no matter what happens to risk on assets like stocks.

David Rosenberg thinking is challenged when ask about the current US debt levels, as Paul Volker did say that he could not have crushed inflation with the debt levels of today.  David Rosenberg simply says the FED is going to hike no matter what, until something very serious breaks.

The question remains will something break in the markets after 1%, 1.5% or 2% hikes. No one knows. But as the US debt to GDP% is over 120% this suggests s...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.