Thrilling Thursday – A Brexit Deal (sort of) Brings Us back to 3,000 (again)

Image result for schrodinger's brexitIsn't this fun?  

IBM had a big miss, Netflix had a big beat, the indexes and futures are all over the place and Boris Johnson has Schrodinger's Brexit but he dares not look in the box because – as long as he doesn't, he has a deal that is dead and alive at the same time – which is quite the sweet spot for a politician – very much like Trump's secret China deal we are still waiting for the details of.  

Nonetheless the US Futures are back to yesterday's highs but that was based on the "Deal" that was touted at the EU open (3am, EST) but has already fallen apart as details are painting a less enthuiastic picture than we had overnight.  That doesn't stop our beloved S&P from testing 3,000 though – so it makes a great short below that line (/ES Futures) with tight stops above.  

We get the Philly Fed Report at 8:30, which is likely to be trending down from last monh's 12 and Industrial Production is likely to slip into contraction while Capacity Utilization was already a miserable 77.9% so 22.1% of our capacity is already idle – not a good thing at all…   There's also some housing data but that's it until tomorrow's Leading Economic Indicators (probably flat) along with China's GDP and we have 6 Fed Speeches tomorrow, so we'll probably finish the week at the 3,000 line – somehow – so quick profit-taking on the /ES shorts. 

On Tuesday at 11am, we put out a Top Trade Alert to our Members for the Marijuana ETF (MJ) at $18.40, which we added to our Short-Term Portfolio with the following spread:

  • Sell 10 MJ 2022 $20 puts for $5.40 ($5,400)
  • Buy 30 MJ 2022 $15 calls for $7 ($21,000) 


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  • Phil I must say that it was really nice to have a portfolio that was looking very stable in the face of a rough day for the markets. I ended the day up 0.3% which includes another successful day of futures trading. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, DIS, etc., along with a couple of hedges that paid off nicely today, and my futures trades, I never had to break a sweat during that madhouse today. Yes, by George (or Phil), I may be learning this system!

    Craig

  • Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational. I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade. Keep it up…. Thanks

    JFawcett

  • Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

    Barfinger

  • Hey Phil, You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!

    GClay

  • Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

    Jromeha

  • Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

    Chaffey

  • Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

    Acd54

  • Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

    Gel1

  • I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

    Captain Mogul

  • Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

    JWick1981

  • Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)

    Japarikh

  • I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves. As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult. I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !

    1234Gel

  • Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

    Greg

  • Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

    Autolander

  • Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

    Gel1

  • Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!

    Iflantheman

  • Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

    Jordan

  • Phil Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract! Thanks

    Kapella

  • I thank you for the years of being my teacher, always took the time to answer my questions. You are the BEST !

    QCMike

  • I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

    Brenteaz

  • I have been around for many years now, was a modest inexperienced investor when I started, and I can honestly say I would not be at the point in my portfolio I am today without the guidance of Phil and JeanLuc and Yodi and all the others I've had the pleased of learning from and, on a few occasions meeting, over the years. Truly been a great experience.

    RPeri

  • CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!

    Scottmi

  • Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

    HJ Kobbeman

  • /NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.

    JohnO

  • Phil/Everyone here/Thank you - What everyone here with their insightful comments (including yourself) has helped me with is that I'm greatly increasing my ability to trade more psychologically neutral, although I've got a ways to go. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks. The old me would have ran with that trade for profits without even asking. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even. Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. Both COF and my past DMM venture have been excellent learning experiences. Thanks, everyone. I look forward to further lessons.

    Skasiah

  • Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"

    Gel1

  • I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

    Dennis

  • My watch list looks like a grid where Phil's recommendations went UP and everything else went DOWN! It looked something like an ad for Philstockworld. I am half in cash, followed the recommendations (AAPL TASR YHOO) on a 20K portfolio and still up 1% for the day. Thanks!

    Sn0gr00ve

  • Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!

    Deano

  • Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.

    Smasher

Passive Products and Active Users

 

Passive Products and Active Users

Courtesy of 

The 20 largest ETFs have $1.556 trillion in assets. While the indexes they track are passive, their users are anything but. Over the previous twelve months, the total trading volume in these products was a whopping $11.529 trillion.

A recent paper from S&P Dow Jones Indices takes a deeper dive into trades linked to some of the most widely followed indexes. For example, there was $127.56 trillion worth of trades either directly in or linked to the S&P 500 in 2018, as you can see in the chart below.

 

Also in the paper was the average holding period in products linked to S&P DJI indices. They found that the median holding period was 174 calendar days, or around six months. However, using an asset-weighted average, the holding period drops to just 11 days.

 

Some will look at these numbers and argue that this is helping markets become more efficient. Others will look at it and argue that there is so much money in index funds that they’re distorting the prices of the underlying components. The truth is probably somewhere in-between.

Source:

A Window on Index Liquidity: Volumes Linked to S&P DJI Indices





Will We Hold It Wednesday – Dow 27,000, S&P 3,000 Edition

Doesn't this seem to happen a lot? 

We get right up to these critical levels on happy talk over Trade and the Fed and Earnings but then, just as the Media is telling us how great things are and what a fool you are for not chasing the market – it all falls apart – again.  To a large extent, it's because the indexes (and the individual components that make them up) are already priced for a perfect outcome. 

When you pay 30 times earnings for a stock, you are getting an effective return of 3.3% and there is, of course, the risk that something bad might happen over the time you hold the stock, causing it to go down, not up.

A 30-year note yeilds 2.2%  and has, theoretically no risk – though the real risk is you are locked into the low-rate note while inflation rises faster than your note or that newer notes start giving a better return than your note – causing the present value of your note to go lower.   That would not effect your 2.2% reuturns but it would make it almost impossible to sell your note to someone else without steeply discounting it. 

Still, the "risk-free" rate of return is 2.2% while a 30x stock is giving you 3.3% but should just 1 out of 3 of your stocks fail to go up this year, your rate of return drops to 2.2% anyway.  That means you have to be right 66% of the time with your 30x picks just to keep up with TBills.   We are able to do that using options since Being the House gives us an inherent advantage but people buying straight stocks at these prices barely stand a chance.

Image result for s&p 500 historical valuationIn the last Recession, ALL the stocks went down and the bonds went down too – there was no escaping the carnage.  THEN it was a no-brainer to buy up blue-chip stocks that were trading for less than 10 times what they earned in a year – giving you an effective 10% annual return – no matter what the PRICE of the stock was.  That happened in 1973 (Nixon Impeached), 1987 (S&L Crisis), 2000 (Dot Com Crash), and
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Netflix is losing shows to rivals – will the music streaming market also splinter?

 

Netflix is losing shows to rivals – will the music streaming market also splinter?

Alexander Kirch/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Andres Hervas-Drane, City, University of London and Paolo Aversa, City, University of London

Netflix is losing Friends. From 2020, viewers in the US will have to subscribe to the new WarnerMedia streaming service HBO Max to watch the 90s sitcom that until now has been one of the most popular shows on Netflix (the UK and other regions won’t be affected).

It is part of a splintering of the streaming market that will see studios such as Disney as well as technology firms such as Apple launch their own Netflix rivals, dividing up popular content between them. Instead of being able to watch most of your favourite TV shows and films on one or two services, you may have to subscribe to several, or else miss out on content.

Is something similar now likely to happen in other media categories such as music? Our research suggests that proponents and early adopters of streaming services need not panic. In a paper we coauthored with Morgane Evenou (now a manager at Netflix), we found that the streaming business has a “winner-takes-all” dynamic that should eventually produce a small number of players dominating each media category. This means that in the long term, and for most consumers, a few dominant services should provide convenient and reliable access to most content.

However, the long-term situation we envisage has not yet arrived, as we are starkly reminded by the current upheaval in the video streaming market. Netflix is not only losing Friends but subscribers – 130,000 of them in the last quarter in the US, where market fragmentation is at its strongest.

The music model

Convenient and reliable streaming isn’t yet the standard way to access most media content, except for music, as most popular artists are available on most commercial services. This exception reflects the fact that different media industries are in different stages of their digital lifecycle. The music industry was among the first to experience substantial upheaval in the 2000s due to online piracy. This challenge spurred innovative commercial responses that evolved to…
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Testy Tuesday – S&P Tests 3,000 (again) on Strong Bank Earnings

Why are we in cash? 

Certainly it starts to feel like we're missing out as the indexes rally back near their highs but this is where we got off in mid-September and here we are, a month later, not quite back to where we were when we cashed out.  Some of the uncertainty is out of the way now – it looks like we will have a trade deal with China, no one seems to care that Trump is being impeached (no on trading), Brexit is likely to have no deal but will happen anyway and Bank Earnings, at least so far, aren't so bad-looking.

Of course I'd like to see more than one day of earnings before jumping back in but what really bothers me is that ALL these positive things happened and we're still struggling to get back to 3,000 on the S&P 500.  Even Apple (AAPL) has been leading us again. blasting back to $236 yesterday – up 20% since early August.  With all this "great" stuff going on – why is the broad index only back at 3,000?  Something is not right and, until we can see what that is – CASH!!! is still safer than equities.

Of course we are picking up some bargains:  Just last Friday, we added Freeport McMorRan (FCX) to our Short-Term Portfolio in the Morning Report and that spread, with a target of $10, is already on track as FCX blasted 0.50 higher so far.  

Earnings season should give us plenty of opportunities to pick up cheap stocks as traders panic out of positions but it's too early in the cycle to start guessing which way they will go – even the banks presented a mixed bag this morning: 

  • Citigroup (C) had 3% lower Interest Revenues but beat low expectations by 0.02 on strong Consumer Debt Spending.
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) significantly missed on Earnings but Revenues were up slightly.
  • JP Morgan (JPM) had rising delinquency rates but overall Consumer Debt Spending boosted profits. 
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) missed Earnings and Revenues and took 67% more Loan Loss Provisions than last year – which indicates trouble ahead.  
  • Blackrock (BLK) had a really nice $84Bn of Net Inflows


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Fallout from WeWork’s failed IPO shows the folly of excessive valuations

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Fallout from WeWork's failed IPO shows the folly of excessive valuations

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

WeWork has undergone a dramatic fall from grace in the last few weeks. Just two months ago the office rental start up was expecting to offer shares to the public at a total business valuation of US$47 billion. This soon halved and then investors rapidly pulled their support for an initial public offering (IPO) above US$12 billion. The IPO was withdrawn with catastrophic consequences for the business and its charismatic founder Adam Neumann.

The fallout for tech IPO markets, and investment in start ups more generally may also be severe. WeWork follows a number of so-called unicorn valuations of more than US$1 billion that have gone public and subsequently nosedived in value. Its uncertain future reflects how investors have wised up to the hype around Silicon Valley start ups.

Certainly, WeWork had problems that were specific to the company. Its chief executive Adam Neumann was a worry to investors – he has since been deposed and is now a non-executive chairman. He is being followed to the exit by 20 of his senior supporters and family. The company jet is up for sale, nearly all future development is being curtailed, at least a third of the workforce of 15,000 are likely to lose their jobs and a number of recent acquisitions are being sold off.

WeWork’s financial situation was also a worry to investors. Its debt has been categorised by banks as “distressed” and concern is rising among landlords as to its viability. The company’s future liabilities to landlords total US$47 billion. There are even fears of a property recession as a consequence of curtailed demand.

WeWork has less than one year’s worth of cash left and without the IPO it will be very difficult to raise new money. It is losing almost US$2 billion a year and now needs to stop the losses. Some reports even suggest that WeWork may not be viable beyond November without an immediate rescue package. Investment bankers are desperately working on an attempt to rescue some value from this catastrophe.…
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Phil's Favorites

China's worldwide investment project is a push for more economic and political power

 

China's worldwide investment project is a push for more economic and political power

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

Inspired by the ancient Silk Road, China is investing in a massive set of international development projects that are raising concerns about how the country is expanding its power around the world.

Initially announced in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the so-called “Belt and Road Initiative” has China planning to invest in e...



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Zero Hedge

Brexit-Bounce Fades As Short-Interest-Slump Signals Crash Concerns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Surprise!! After Q3's "use it or lose it" spending spree sent US macro data soaring unilaterally, October has begun with a collapse...

Source: Bloomberg

A trade deal (or not)? Brexit deal (or not)? Turkey peace deal (or not)? But retail sales s...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bank Index Breakout? Stock Market Bulls Sure Hope So

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the most important sectors of the stock market is the banking industry and bank stocks.

When the banks are healthy, the economy is likely doing well. And when bank stocks are participating in a market rally, then it bodes well for the broader stock market.

In today’s chart, we look at the Bank Index (BKX).

As you can see, the banks have been in a falling channel for the past 20 months. As well, the banks have been lagging the broader market during this time as well – see the Ratio in the bottom half of the chart above.

That said, th...



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Insider Scoop

Citigroup Appoints New Head Of Asia Pacific Business

Courtesy of Benzinga

American multinational financial services corporation Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has appointed Peter Babej as the new chief executive officer of its Asia Pacific region, a memo sent to staff by Citi global CEO Mike Corbat shows. Babej previously served as the bank’s global head of financial institutions group.

He joined Citi in 2010 to co-head the company’s financial institutions...



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The Technical Traders

Market Trend Change Triggered Today

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

...

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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Chart in video

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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