Trade War Tuesday – Trump Fires off Another $200Bn in Tarrifs, China Fires Back

Image result for trump china trade warWheeeeeeee!!! 

Isn't this fun?  Diplomacy via twitter is a case of voters getting exactly what they deserve and we'll see how much the market suffers for it.  We gave you hedges yesterday that can turn $2,000 into $10,000 and it's the same hedge I gave you two weeks ago that could turn $500 into $10,000 so I don't feel at all bad when I say "I told you so" as I ranted on and on all month about how this was going to escalate and end badly

This, by the way, is not the end, this is just the beginning as Trump the First has asked for ANOTHER $200Bn worth of tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for the $34Bn worth of tariffs they put on our goods which was a retailiation against the $50Bn we put on their goods first.   

The new duties will go into effect "if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced," the president said in a statement provided by the White House late on Monday.  Meanwhile, Trump is fighing Congress tooth and nail to REMOVE sanctions against ZTE – because he was paid $500M to do that, so the real message to China is "PAY ME!"  This is why you don't negotiate with terrorists – it only makes them come back for more…

Beijing has already said they will retailiate, saying: "This practice of extreme pressure and blackmail deviates from the consensus reached by both parties on many occasions and is disappointing for the international community. The United States has initiated a trade war that violates market laws and is not in accordance with current global development trends," the Commerce Ministry said.

Image result for putin laughing animated gifSeriously people, let's step back for a second to consider that CHINA has just accused the US of BLACKMAIL and of violating International Laws and undermining diplomacy – all in one paragraph!  President Trump is undoing 70 years of hard-faught diplomatic steps that have given us 70 years of relative peace and prosperity.  Who actually benefits from Trump single-handedly upending the World Order? 

The clock is now…
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  • Hey Phil -- I want to thank you every chance I get for helping me to grow my previous portfolio to being profitable enough to pay off some debts my family had and left me with $1,000 left to use in the markets. You should know that your premium membership is amazing on many levels, You and your readers offer a ton of economic and statistical analysis that I was able to use in my clerical level job in finance. It's a shame that someone as talented and honest as you is not on television each night providing a true service to the investing public and not the clowns and hucksters that are talking up their books to dump on retail investors. Sorry for the long post. I had to say something to you that I never thought I would have the opportunity to. You helped put my family in an almost debt-free life through the stock and option plays that I made during my time as a customer of your service and that has made us very happy. You are a good man and I wish you and your family many years of joy and happiness. I wish I could do ads for you!

    DaveJ

  • Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

    Ban2

  • I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.

    Denlundy

  • Phil/thankyou. Phil, I went over the recording of last weeks webinar. I liked it a lot and wanted to thank you. I thought the case studies (company reviews) were detailed, I learned more about selling puts process and also what happens if stock continues to go down after that, I liked the fact that we discuss so many different avenues like stocks, optiond, futures, oil, commodities etc… I replayed portions of it multiple times to make sure I was grasping it but wanted to say good job. Thanks…

    Nramanuja

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    Kwan

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    Barfinger

  • Hey Phil, You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!

    GClay

  • Hello Phil, Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!

    Microflux

  • Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.

    DOStrade

  • 1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

    Phil Pearlman - StockTwits

  • Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!

    Kustomz

  • Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

    JWick1981

  • Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!

    Traderd

  • Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

    Ben1Be

  • I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!

    Iflantheman

  • Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

    Coke

  • Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

    Kinkistyle

  • Thanks, after years of blood and blunders, I have reached a significant milestone – I don't lose money. Net net, I rarely have a losing week, market up, market down. And that I owe to you. Balanced positions. More premium sold than bought. Fundamental criteria applied to good companies, not momentum/ news headlines/ stock du jour/ triangle squeezies. But rather earnings, P/E, dividends, competitive position — the boring stuff that takes study, thought,….and patience. You have been a great teacher, and I have embarassed myself repeatedly day with how slowly I learn. And it's a funny thing – if you don't lose, the gains start to pile up. The arithmetic is cruel to the downside, and becomes a gift in the other direction. And I'm in this for the long run, having made myself unemployable through a need for diversification. Moreover, what I've learned here has also elided into other areas, including real estate and ex-U.S. investment. Pretty cool. Have a great weekend.

    Zeroxzero

  • You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

    Dclark41

  • Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.

    Winston

  • Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions. Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.

    Bai2r

  • What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????

    Jablams

  • Probably the best approach and method I have ever seen for the public and I have worked for some serious traders at the biggest houses doing research. Those guys all have various forms of inside info that you and I do not and cannot have. Davis simply has a great system based on a very deep understanding and experience that gives him market savvy that is very real. A very smart guy and he shares it for a fee. He knows how to use options to great advantage and make money trading.

    DowntoEarthThinking

  • New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those

    Deano

  • I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.

    TokyoLife

  • Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

    Bjkeck

  • Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.

    Hoss

  • I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

    Captain Mogul

  • I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!

    craigsa620

  • The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.

    Winston

These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

What I thought was a major career failure turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to my career ~ by Blair duQuesnay

Learn to love the micro-stakes arena ~ by Tommy Tranfo

If things like research department headcount or manager tenure had any predictive value, then you could throw away your Bloomberg terminal and just use LinkedIn ~ by Josh Brown

Capital gains is a hell of a drug. ~ by Nick Maggiulli

Debt is a perennial worry ~ by Urban Carmel

We all begin as novice investors ~ by Barry Ritholtz

Social Security is the greatest source of income for the typical American household ~ by Tony Isola

He didn’t care who’s son I was and for that, I thank him ~ by Phil Huber

Needless to say, “staying away” from positive returns is not the best investment strategy ~ by Charlie Bilello

The only difference between the lucky and the rest is that the lucky just live a little farther inland ~ by Damon Young

Then in the summer of 1915, something unexpected happened — the economy took off like a rocket. ~ by Ben Carlson

Investment mythology is littered with Ragnarok-styled blow-ups ~ by Corey Hoffstein

The rhymes between today and the late-’90s are close enough that some veteran market participants are singing along ~ by Michael Santoli

Podcasts

There’s a lot of information in the world that’s not in the market ~ with Patrick O’Shaughnessy and Michael Reece

There is our memory and there is the truth, and the two are not the same ~ with Malcolm Gladwell

One dollar is the best price point god ever made ~ with Barry Ritholtz and Cal Turner Jr. 

It wasn’t just making money, you were backing a horse ~ with Ted Seides and Tom Lydon

People get mad at inevitability ~ with Bill Simmons and Bryan Curtis

Books

The long term is fuzzy at best ~ by Brian Portnoy

All pictures via Pixabay.





Monday Market Meltdown – Merkel Mayhem Makes Markets Morose

Wheeeeeee!!!

It's about time our hedges made some money!  As you know, we've remained cautious, even while making money on the long side and, just this weekend, in our June Portfolio Review, I said to our Members:  "I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid."  

We're very well-hedged so a dip like this is simply amusing and it's miles to go before we even get back to the strong bounce line at 2,728, which had been the top of our range since February.  Unless we fall back below that line on the S&P (/ES) this is just a minor pullback and we're still in bullish territory though failing at the 2,800 line (again), which is where we ran into trouble in March before pulling back 200 points (7%).  

7% is right about the pullback we are expecting but we expected it from 2,728 – this move back to 2,800 has been a bonus round so far.  Above the 2,800 line, we have to capitulate and get more bullish – no matter how much we don't trust the rally but that certainly isn't a problem we'll have to deal with today, as we're down around 2,764 so far in the Futures.

If you feel under-hedged, you can use a play similar to the DXD play we gave you in our 6/7 Morning Report, when I said:

That's how hedges are supposed to work – they are insurance policies and keeping our portfolios well-hedged is the only way we can sensibly keep long positions after they've already gained 20% for the year.  

Maybe this is a full-blown 1998/1999 rally but we've got PLENTY of longs so all we're worried about now is whether or not we


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Google’s new principles on AI need to be better at protecting human rights

 

Google's new principles on AI need to be better at protecting human rights

File 20180614 32323 1uki128.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Google’s new principles on AI under scrutiny. Pixabay/422737, CC BY

Courtesy of Lorna McGregor, University of Essex and Vivian Ng, University of Essex

There are growing concerns about the potential risks of AI – and mounting criticism of technology giants. In the wake of what has been called an AI backlash or “techlash”, states and businesses are waking up to the fact that the design and development of AI have to be ethical, benefit society and protect human rights.

In the last few months, Google has faced protests from its own staff against the company’s AI work with the US military. The US Department of Defense contracted Google to develop AI for analysing drone footage in what is known as “Project Maven”.

A Google spokesperson was reported to have said: “the backlash has been terrible for the company” and “it is incumbent on us to show leadership”. She referred to “plans to unveil new ethical principles”. These principles have now been released.

Google’s chief executive, Sundar Pichar, acknowledged that “this area is dynamic and evolving” and said that Google would be willing “to adapt our approach as we learn over time”. This is important because, while the principles are a start, more work and more concrete commitments are needed if Google is going to become effective in protecting human rights.

Google’s principles on AI

  1. Be socially beneficial.
  2. Avoid creating or reinforcing unfair bias.
  3. Be built and tested for safety.
  4. Be accountable to people.
  5. Incorporate privacy design principles.
  6. Uphold high standards of scientific excellence.
  7. Be made available for uses that accord with these principles.

Google also commits to not pursuing:

  1. Technologies that cause or are likely to cause overall harm.
  2. Weapons or other technologies whose principal purpose or implementation is to cause or directly facilitate injury to people.
  3. Technologies that gather or use information for surveillance, violating internationally accepted norms.
  4. Technologies


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Anthony Bourdain’s window into Africa

 

Anthony Bourdain's window into Africa

File 20180611 191954 v4pga7.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

In Season 3 of ‘Parts Unknown,’ Anthony Bourdain took viewers to Tanzania. CNN

Courtesy of Jacob Henry, University of Hawaii

Anthony Bourdain might have been a celebrity chef, but viewers of his Emmy Award-winning travel show, “Parts Unknown,” didn’t tune in for curry and noodle recipes.

Cooking was simply the conceit Bourdain used to have a conversation about the culture, politics, struggles and triumphs of people around the world.

As a human geographer, I was drawn to how Bourdain upended the travel show genre, telling compelling and complicated stories about people and places most Western viewers tend to view through a lens of simplistic stereotypes or caricatures.

Even more remarkable, his work wasn’t relegated to obscurity. The show aired on CNN – a mainstream cable outlet with millions of viewers.

I was especially interested in the way the show depicted Africa, a continent Western media tends to portray using what novelist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie famously called a “single story” – a monolithic narrative of poverty, backwardness and hopelessness.

So in a paper published last fall, I analyzed Bourdain’s Africa episodes, which took viewers to Congo-Kinshasa, South Africa, Tanzania, Madagascar and Ethiopia.

In them, he largely rejects the “single story” approach taken by much travel writing, and later travel television, since at least the 16th century. While the stories told about Africa in the West have changed over time, they’ve often lacked nuance and multiple voices – something Bourdain was eager to provide.

A ‘single story’ of horror and hopelessness

In the imaginations of many Westerners, Africa exists as a silent, docile, set piece – a contrasting “other.”

Sociologist Jan Nederveen Pieterse notes that for centuries – through deliberate lies and well-meaning mistakes – travel writers, missionaries and popular media outlets have wrongly depicted Africa as a place devoid of civilization, a frontier of wilderness and savagery.

The dominant narrative goes something like this: If the West is stable, Africa must be chaotic; if the West is mature, Africa must be infantile; and if the West is technologically advanced, Africa must be…
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Phil's Favorites

Marks vs Machine

 

Marks vs Machine

Courtesy of 

The new Howard Marks memo hit last night. In it, the famed fixed income manager talks about the things that robotic investing cannot do that skilled humans can.

I’m not through the whole thing yet, but will have thoughts later.

Read it here in its entirety:

Investing Without People (Oaktree)

...

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Zero Hedge

As Tensions Rise, Greeks See Sudden 90% Surge In 'Asylum-Seekers' Across Land Border With Turkey

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Coincidence?

In the last few months, tensions between two NATO member states have escalated dramatically - Turkey...



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Insider Scoop

More Trade Threats Spook Investors

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY The Market In 5 Minutes: Trade Tensions Intensify, ZTE Rebuked, Housing Starts And More Mark Cuban, Others...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - Testing support on cycle low

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Due to popular demand, bitcoin review.

More from RTT Tv




Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and ...

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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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