Animal Spirits: The Richest 50%

 

Animal Spirits: The Richest 50%

Courtesy of 

Today’s Animal Spirits is presented by YCharts. Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off (*New YCharts users only).

On today’s Animal Spirits we discuss:

What’s going on with Softbank and WeWork

Sears was a giant

The U.S. housing market

How Japan defied demographics

1 in 5 millennials

Who shares fake news?

Is the stock market moving faster?

Listen Here:

Recommendations

Billion Dollar Whale

The Monk of Mokha

Molly’s Game

Charts Mentioned

 

Tweets Mentioned






  • Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

    mSquare

  • In options trading, one must remain flexible with the ability to adjust to take advantage of the unexpected moves in the market. It is like chess - spend most of your time strategizing the next move. A good understanding of options is necessary to change direction and make adjustments as the market moves against you. I have a friend that honed his option skills while a member of Phil's elite membership over a period of two years. With the education acquired, he made over $2 Mil in that period, trading options and following the plays put on by Phil. If making money is your goal, then he is the go-to guy, as he knows option strategies better than anyone, and market timing is also a skill he has mastered.

    1234gel

  • Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!

    Jfawcett

  • As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges. Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double." Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain. Thanks, Bob

    RJK

  • Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

    Greg

  • Tesla et. al. – I've spent many months getting hammered shorting overvalued Momos, until, finally, I internalized Phil's message. Play small; give yourself plenty of room to double/move up the [lack of value] chain in terms of price. Play short; take [Musk's, eg.] latest bleep and sell the spike for a short time frame, because his tweets always come to naught. I've been coining money doing it, I just watch that premium melt away with scarcely veiled amusement. Swinging for the fences is for suckers [me, for a long time]. Those little gains really add up — $2k per week of evaporated premium and you could actually buy a Tesla by the end of the year!!

    zeroxzero

  • I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

    Brenteaz

  • Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

    Tchayipov

  • I have been a member for over six years and I still learn something new every day. This site gives you the skills to trade without having to be spoon fed. More importantly it teaches you about risk which is WAY more important than profit. Honestly, it is not a get rich quick scheme!

    Malsg

  • Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

    Bjkeck

  • Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!

    Biodieselchris

  • I am about 1000 hours into learning about investing. While, I have tried other websites along the way, they don't teach or focus on selling premiums and certainly don't have your mindset. Anyway, I have a lot to learn and look forward to the new portfolios. So, thank ALL of you for being patient and teaching others how to "Be the House and not the Gambler"!

    GrassHopper67

  • Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

    RMM

  • Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

    CanuckBob

  • Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

    Doro165

  • Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…

    Pharmboy

  • I have been around for many years now, was a modest inexperienced investor when I started, and I can honestly say I would not be at the point in my portfolio I am today without the guidance of Phil and JeanLuc and Yodi and all the others I've had the pleased of learning from and, on a few occasions meeting, over the years. Truly been a great experience.

    RPeri

  • WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?

    Matt1966

  • Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

    Gel1

  • That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

    Kwan

  • Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

    dclark41

  • Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

    Oknoman

  • Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!

    Investwizard

  • Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

    Where

  • Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!

    Jromeha

  • Happy Thanksgiving Phil and to your family and associates. Also to all of the other fellow citizens of Phil's Stock World. I am particularly happy and thankful that I clicked on your article in Seeking Alpha a number of years ago. That opened the gate to Phil's Stock World and "being the house". My wallet thanks you as does my peace of mind in trading options, stocks and rarely futures. Your liberal views opened up my views—being a boot strapper (pulled myself out of a poor background) I was a CONSERVATIVE—cynical of others who weren't as driven. Now, I am much less so; you have taught me more than how to make money and manage risk. So, again I give thanks to you and the others of PSW!!

    Newthugger

  • 1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

    Phil Pearlman - StockTwits

  • On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

    Iflantheman

  • Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.

    Dstillwe

  • Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!

    Coke

Which Way Wednesday – Brexit Deal Fails, US Government Continues to Not Open

Brexit failed by a 2:1 margin yesterday.

With just 10 weeks (March 29th) to Brexit day, the UK faces a "hard brexit" where they quit the EU without any trade deals, which would throw all of Europe into total chaos.  British PM, Theresa May essentially demanded a "No Confidence" vote after the defeat and her challengers were happy to call for it so today her leadership will be put up for vote but I doubt she would have called for it if she wasn't sure she would be keeping her job – despite the widespread dissatisfaction with the Brexit negotiations.  

If, however, May has miscalculated and is removed from office, CHAOS is not a big enough word to describe the weeks ahead as the entire Government would have to be re-formed with new leadership – all the while as the clock ticks towards the hard date of March 29th.  As you can see, the Euro is tumbling and that's pushing the Dollar back to 96, which is putting pressure on US Equities and Commodities, which trade in Dollars.  

All this uncertainty is slowing the UK economy, which is getting dangerously close to a recession and this morning Goldman Sachs said that, while they do not see a US Recession in 2019, they do see a sharp slowdown with very low profit growth from 2018.  

A survey of 500 U.S. institutional investors by Natixis in December showed that the majority felt that the longest bull market in history will come to an end in 2019. Forty-one percent of those surveyed said they would be reducing allocations to U.S. equities.  The growth outlook for 2019 is also beset with trade concerns, a slowdown in China, Brexit and political uncertainty in Europe making forecasts for the global economy tricky.

The indexes made constructive moves yesterday, hopefully consolidating to get back above their 50-day moving averages but it's a tricky time as any negative move will be seen as a technical rejection of those averages – and that could trigger a whole new round of selling.  I'd say that could easily happen if May loses her vote this afternoon.

 





Something Wicked This Way Comes

Courtesy of John Mauldin, MauldinEconomics.com

For a couple of years now, the economic narrative has shown a comparatively strong US against weakness in Europe and some of Asia (NOT China). The US, we are told, will stay on top. I agree with that, as far as it goes… but I’m not convinced the “top” will be so great.

Americans like to think we are insulated from the world. We have big oceans on either side of us. Geopolitically, they serve as buffers. But economically they connect us to other important markets that are critical to many US businesses. Problems in those markets are ultimately problems for the US, too.

Last week I gave you my Year of Living Dangerously 2019 US forecast, but I didn’t discuss important events overseas. Summarizing last week quickly, I think the base case is that the United States economy slows down but avoids recession in 2019. That said, there are significant risks to that forecast, mostly to the downside.

Today we’ll make another literary metaphor to frame our discussion. “Something Wicked This Way Comes” is a 1962 Ray Bradbury novel about two boys and their horrifying encounter with a travelling circus. Later it was a movie.

In our case, something wicked most certainly is coming this way. Several somethings, in fact, approaching from all directions. The real question is how much damage this circus will do before it leaves town.

Shaky China

Many of our risks emanate from China, and as I wrote this section, I realized it deserves a longer treatment. I will do that in next week’s letter. For now, let’s touch on the big picture.

By most measures, the US and China are the world’s largest and second-largest economies. They are also entwined with each other in so many ways that it can be hard to know where one stops and the other starts. Some call it “Chimerica,” which may be an apt description. That’s basically good, in my view. International trade promotes peace and prosperity for all, albeit not always smoothly, evenly distributed, or without issues. Such is the nature of great entanglements. But seen over decades? China’s growth has made the world better. Literally billions of people globally have been lifted out of…
continue reading





Technical Tuesday – Trumpdown Keeps Markets Weak

Well, we're making no progress.

On Friday we looked at our bounce levels and we were encouraged that we'd improved enough to be a bit more confident into the weekend but the ongoing Government shutdown by the President is making us more and more concerned every day – especially with the mounting evidence that President Trump may be a Russian Agent who's actual intent is to weaken this country.  Still, the entire GOP is going along with this insanity and they can't all be in Putin's pocket – can they?

Even if Trump isn't destroying America on behalf of Vladimir Putin, he's still destroying America so we added some hedges to our Short-Term Portfolio yesterday in our Live Member Chat Room in order to lock in our recent profits as well as to protect ourselves from the next Twitter rampage coming out of the oval office.

Trump is meeting with Congress this morning and, hopefully, it will go better than Friday's meeting, where he threw a tantrum and walked out because Nancy Pelosi said no to his wall – even after he offered her candy.  Meanwhile, you can see the Brits debating Brexit all day and all night in their Parliament because, when something important is affecting your Government – a real Government tends to focus on the problem.

That's a live feed – how cool is that?

Image result for british parliamentDon't even try to compare that to CSpan – it will make you cry.  British Parliament is based on debate and consensus so any MP is a skilled orator – it's basically a job requirement.  Most of our Congresspeople can't put two coherent sentences together without their entire staff working overtime to prep them and God forbid our Congresspeople get interrupted – that's game over for them but that's the entire game in the UK – a much better way to discuss the issues.  

With about an hour to go before the markets open, the Futures are down a bit and that may not seem bad but the Dow (/YM) Futures were up 200 points around midnight and have since collapsed…
continue reading





Who are the federal workers affected by the shutdown? 5 questions answered

 

Who are the federal workers affected by the shutdown? 5 questions answered

Courtesy of Nevbahar Ertas, University of Alabama at Birmingham

The current government shutdown is now the longest in American history, affecting about 800,000 federal employees out of 1.8 million full-time civil servants, not counting military personnel and postal workers.

Of those, about 380,000 have been furloughed, meaning that they cannot work or get paid. The rest, whose positions are categorized as essential, are working without pay.

Here’s a closer look at some quick facts about the U.S. federal workers.

1. Who are they?

According to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management’s federal employee database, about 57 percent of federal workers were male and 43 percent were female in 2017. About 63 percent were white and 19 percent were black. Over half of the workforce had a college degree and about a quarter also had an advanced degree.

The federal civilian workforce has grown older than the American workforce overall. The average federal worker was 47.5 years old in 2017. Just about 16 percent of federal workers are under 35 years old, compared to 40 percent in the private sector. More than a quarter of federal employees are over 55.

2. Where do they work?

They might be your neighbors. More than 80 percent of the federal workers work or live outside of the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.

According to Governing magazine’s calculations, nearly every state has a least a few thousand affected employees. OPM shows that California tops the list with 152,466 federal workers, followed by Virginia, Texas, Maryland and Florida.

More than 18 percent work for the Department of Veterans Affairs. In fact, almost 60 percent of the federal workforce is employed by just five agencies: the VA, Army, Navy, Homeland Security and Air Force.

3. How much do they make?

Under open government transparency guidelines, records of most public employees of the U.S. federal government is public record.

As of 2017, the average salary among 375 agencies was US$69,344.22. In fiscal year…
continue reading





Monday Market Mayhem – Trumpdown, Day 22

Image result for no government shutdownAt the end of this week, we'll have gone a month without a Government.

That's kind of dangerous as people may begin to realize they don't need a Government.  Well, rich people don't need a Government – poor people are screwed…  Federal workers are screwed as they didn't get paychecks on Friday, despite 420,000 of them being considered "essential" and working without pay.  When you go to work you spend money on gas, tolls, lunch, day care – it's not like the Government is just asking people to work for free – they are essentially forcing people to dig into their own pockets to support Trump's madness.

Not only that but missing bill payments due to not getting paid will impact the Federal Workers' credit ratings – damaging them and their families for years to come.  #TrumpDontCare

Meanwhile, nothing is getting done and that's slowing US commerce down and we're talking a month – that's 10% of the year and we're not going to be back to 100% right after the shutdown ends as there must be piles and piles of backlogged things sitting on the desks of the 380,000 furloughed workers as well.  Already the Wall Street Journal has estimated that this shutdown will bring GDP growth for Q1 down to 2.2% from 3.1% for all of 2018 – another month and we'll be below 1.5% but it will give Trump an excuse for failing to deliver on his GDP promises – and he needs an excuse because nothing Trump has done has really helped the economy anyway. 

Related imageWe're right in the middle of Flu Season and 30 people are dead and 9,000 people are hospitalized but money to the CDC's Influenza Program (our front-line defense against a national outbreak) has been cut off and that means we have no coordinated program to track and identify flu strains, which is how doctors get guidlines for treatment and how vaccine makers are able to prepare batches of antibiotics to contain the outbreaks.  In other words, not only are people going to die during Trump's little temper tantrum, but this could lay the groudwork for a massive outbreak – the kind that usually doesn't
continue reading






 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Federal Workers Taking Odd Jobs To Make Ends Meet During Shutdown

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Federal employees affected by the partial government shutdown are turning to various side jobs to make ends meet, according to the Associated Press

Some, such as immigration lawyer Cheryl Inzunza Blum of Tucson has been renting out a room on Airbnb for extra cash - capitalizing on the busy winter travel season in Arizona after she stopped receiving paychecks for her government contract work at a local immigration lawyer. She says she's working for free since she has clients who depend on her - some of whom are detained or have court hearings. 

Cheryl Inzunza Blum ...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

The "Average Stock" is Facing a Big Test Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The Value Line Geometric Index tends to give investors a good idea of the health of the overall market. It is an equal-weighted index with a broad swath of stocks that gives investors an idea of how the “average stock” is performing.

The Value Line Geometric formed highs in the same area in 1998, 2007, and 2015 (see blue line). In the last two years, the index broke out above that line and held above it until the recent correction.

It is now testing the underside of that price area (now resistance). Bulls will get good news with a breakout ABOVE thi...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



more from ValueWalk

Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>