What China wants: 3 things motivating China’s position in trade negotiations with the US

 

What China wants: 3 things motivating China's position in trade negotiations with the US

Courtesy of Penelope B. Prime, Georgia State University

Relations between the U.S. and China have deteriorated sharply in recent days after trade negotiations broke down, leading some to suggest we are on the cusp of a new “cold war.”

President Donald Trump blames the resumption of hostilities on China. Specifically, he and his negotiators say their Chinese counterparts backtracked on an agreement to change laws aimed at enforcing the deal, prompting Trump to raise tariffs on US$200 billion in imports and China to retaliate. Only a few weeks earlier, the two sides seemed very close to a deal.

So what led to China’s change of heart – if there was one?

As an expert on China’s development and economic reform, I believe the answer lies in trying to understand the situation from the Chinese perspective.

Chinese and U.S. negotiators seemed close to a deal – until they weren’t. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

China’s rise

China was a poor country not long ago. Its leaders effectively developed its productive and institutional capabilities by learning from foreign countries while allowing domestic companies to flourish over four decades of reform.

While this is commendable, as my research shows, and something other developing economies should emulate, it has also been controversial, particularly as China’s economy has become the world’s second-largest.

In 2015, a 10-year plan known as “Made in China 2025” put in place a set of incentives to encourage Chinese companies to move from basic manufacturing to high-tech sectors such as electric cars, robotics and artificial intelligence. China’s goal is to have its companies globally competitive in these sectors by 2025.

However, in order to meet these ambitious goals, in some cases Chinese companies must rely on subsidies, government funding, forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft. To foreign political and business leaders, these practices smack of unfair competition.

Now that China has established strong capabilities, the threat of overtaking the U.S. in high-tech areas such as AI seems real and the methods being used…
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  • Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!

    Gel1

  • PHIL: The most important lesson I have learned is how to hedge using SQQQ, SDS and TZA. A big thanks.

    IHS4God

  • I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

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  • Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

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  • Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

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  • Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

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  • Phil, I followed your investing ideas in LTP quite closely. It seems your insightful fundamental analysis knowledge serves you v. well. I get entertained and they are profitable.

    Investwizard

  • This is my first month here. Today was a money train with futures. I gained 7500 USD with KC, RB, CL, NG. I took RB almost every direction up and down. And I only used 1 contract or maximum 2. Thank you. I think it was a good investment to subscribe…

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  • Phil - Rode the /QM down from 99.65 at 7pm and now I'm taking your advice, taking the $$ and going to enjoy a restful night sleep. I don't post often so I want to say thanks for sharing your incredible market acumen with all of us. Your site has a unusually talented group of investors (and some characters) and I enjoy my days trading more because of it.

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  • Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

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  • Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.

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  • On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

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  • CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!

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  • Tesla et. al. – I've spent many months getting hammered shorting overvalued Momos, until, finally, I internalized Phil's message. Play small; give yourself plenty of room to double/move up the [lack of value] chain in terms of price. Play short; take [Musk's, eg.] latest bleep and sell the spike for a short time frame, because his tweets always come to naught. I've been coining money doing it, I just watch that premium melt away with scarcely veiled amusement. Swinging for the fences is for suckers [me, for a long time]. Those little gains really add up — $2k per week of evaporated premium and you could actually buy a Tesla by the end of the year!!

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  • I must give kudos to Phil for changing my way of thinking. I'm a gambler by nature and used to just play the indexes with 3x etf's… well I still do, but the options give far better returns than I ever dreamed of. With these wild swings I've been catching 50-100% winners in days.

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  • I am not a user of phil's site now, but was for a couple years. His advice and information is excellent. Perhaps even better, you get access to real-time trades of additional traders on his site (OptTrader, etc) and the other members who post what they are buying and selling. Overall, its a very valuable information tool. Expensive, but paid for itself many times over. I did not renew my membership because I switched jobs and did not have time to trade nearly as much.

    XRTrader

  • Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

    Ricpar

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  • Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!

    Coke

“This Is Unfathomable” – Nike, Adidas Pen Letter To Trump Calling Proposed Tariffs “Catastrophic”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Footwear companies Nike and Adidas are publicly airing their grievances and having their say about President Trump's pending decision to slap tariffs on footwear made in China. The companies are calling the policy “catastrophic for our consumers, our companies and the American economy as a whole,” according to Bloomberg and a letter released publicly by the shoe industry’s trade association, the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America, on Monday.  

The two giants have been joined by 171 additional footwear companies in asking the President to hold off on raising tariffs further. The letter was also addressed to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow. The industry estimates that the tariffs, if implemented, would add $7 billion in new costs per year that would need to be passed onto the consumer. 

They wrote:

"On behalf of our hundreds of millions of footwear consumers and hundreds of thousands of employees, we ask that you immediately stop this action to increase their tax burden. Your proposal to add tariffs on all imports from China is asking the American consumer to foot the bill. It is time to bring this trade war to an end."

President Trump has recently threatened tariffs as high as 25% on Chinese goods. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office released a list of products that could see higher import duties, including footwear, last week. Trump is set to talk to Xi Jinping next month to discuss the issue further. 

Michael Jeppesen, president of global operations for Wolverine World Wide Inc., which also signed the letter, said of the tariffs:

 “We don’t make enough to absorb that. The only way it can is to be passed onto the consumer.”

Duties have always been higher for footwear makers due to longstanding tariffs that already sometimes exceed 30% for those in the industry. Nike makes 26% of its apparel and footwear in China while Sketchers produces about 65% of their products there. In Sketchers' case, not all of the products manufactured in China are imported to the United States. Under Armor gets about 18% of its products from China, down from 46% in 2013, and has goals of getting that number down…
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Tariffic Tuesday – Markets Bounce Back – Again

What a month this has been! 

It's all over now because Monday is a holiday and EVERYONE (who matters) is out the door early on Friday or Thursday or Wednesday for that matter and they don't come back until next Tuesday or Wednesday or, if they do – they sure aren't working much.  While Americans complain that they don't get many holidays – they certainly seem to stretch the ones they do have out quite a bit

I said we shouldn't expect much volume and yesterday's SPY volume was 60% of Friday's and I think we'll see even lower transaction numbers as the week goes on.  In other words, the whole thing is a joke – you may as well take the week off.  Our picks from yesterday morning were no joke as the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures popped back to 7,450 this morning for a lovely $1,000 per contract gain from the long play we discussed in Monday Monring's PSW Report.  Likewise the S&P Futures (/ES) gained 10 points at 2,860 (again) and that was good for $500 per contract – not a bad way to start our trading week.  

This morning we're playing JULY Gasoline (/RBN19) Futures at $1.99 and I'll be very surprised if we're not at $2.05 by Thursday and, at $420 per penny, per contract, that could be good for $2,520 per contract – good enough to barbeque some steaks instead of hot dogs this weekend.  A stop below the $198 line limits the risk to $420.  

This weekend is the start of "Summer Driving Season" and the EIA forecasts a slight increase in consumption vs. last year, despite a 1% increase in overall fuel efficiency for the motor vehicle fleet:

For summer 2019, EIA forecasts U.S. motor gasoline consumption will average 9.54 million barrels per day (b/d), up 29,000 b/d (0.3%) compared with last summer’s level and nearly the same as the record summer average set in 2017. Highway travel is forecast to be 1.3% higher than last summer. The forecast increase in highway travel is largely because of growth in employment and population. The effect of the increase in highway travel is forecast to be partially offset by a 1.0%


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Drones to deliver incessant buzzing noise, and packages

 

Drones to deliver incessant buzzing noise, and packages

File 20190430 136807 izn2za.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

It’s going to get loud. Alexey Laputin/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Garth Paine, Arizona State University

A sister company of Google, Alphabet’s Wing Aviation, just got federal approval to start using drones for commercial delivery. Amazon’s own drone-delivery program is ready to launch as well. As drones take flight, the world is about to get a lot louder – as if neighborhoods were filled with leaf blowers, lawn mowers and chainsaws.

Are you ready for this?

Small recreational drones are fairly loud. Serious commercial drones are much louder. They have eight or more propellers (Alphabet’s Wing has 14; Amazon’s Octocopter has eight spinning at thousands of revolutions per minute, physically beating the air to generate lift and movement. The heavier the load, the harder they have to work, the more air gets beaten – and the louder the sound.

Drones also make higher pitched buzzing sounds than helicopters, which have much lower frequencies because their larger rotors don’t need to spin as fast to generate the necessary power. Now imagine tens or even hundreds of drones buzzing around your neighborhood, delivering packages to homes and businesses. Next, imagine the round-the-clock hives of aerial activity that warehouses and distribution centers will become, in addition to their existing burden on local roads; Amazon recently ordered 20,000 new vans.

As an acoustic ecologist, I monitor the sound of our environment and how it changes. I am concerned that drones are taking to the air without a lot of thought for the ears of people on the ground.

Will there be a weight limit on delivery-drone payloads? Who will monitor the sound levels, and how? Should there be a curfew on hours of operation? There must be a reason companies don’t include the sound of the drone in advertising materials – and it’s probably not because they sound so nice.

In this ad, the drone seems silent.

Health and


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Monday Market Madness – Trade Worries Continue to Weigh Down Markets

And down we go again!

Don't worry, it's not only Monday but it's a pre-holiday week so the volume is likely to be low and it's hard to break out of a range on low volume – even to the downside.  That means we kind of like playing 7,400 on the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures for a bounce – with tight stops below tha line.  The S&P (/ES) Futures are also playable if they get back over 2,850 (now 2,845) with very tight stops below that line as /ES is $50 per point, per contract – so we don't want to mess around.  

The Nasdaq bottomed out at 7,300 on the 13th and the S&P was 2,800 with the Dow (/YM) 25,200 and the Russell (/RTY) 1,520 so, if we fail to hold our lines this morning – that's the next place we'll take a stand but the Russell is already down at 1,527 and looking a bit shakey – so be very careful this morning. 

We did get a nice pop this morning on Natural Gas, which was our long idea from Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar and we're already up over $500 so that's now our stop line but hopefully $2.75(ish) will hold and we'll leg up further but congrats to all who played along with that one on the quick winner.

We also, of course, blew through our hoped-for 25-point drop on the Nasdaq (/NQ) as we're now down over 100 points from our Webinar short and that one is good for $20 per point, per contract so $2,000+ on that short and that's why we love the Futures – it's a great, quick way to hedge your portfolio that quickly returns the cash you need to adjust your bullish positions – like we did last week in our Portfolio Reviews.  

Speaking of the Portfolio Reviews, I want everyone to keep in mind that I have been saying for the past month that we are only staying in our portfolio positions to demonstrate how to trade through a downturn in the market and we ABSOLUTELY would have cashed out any portfolio that mattered to our long-term financial future. 

We are very


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Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

File 20190514 60557 38cbgs.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what is perhaps the most profound development since the birth of cryptocurrencies through the launch of bitcoin a decade ago.

JP Morgan Chase has been leading the way, having announced JPM Coin earlier this year, the first cryptocurrency issued by a big international bank. When trials begin in the coming months, each JPM Coin will be redeemable for one US dollar, protecting this cryptocurrency from the volatility characteristic of the likes of bitcoin.

One of the main reasons for JP Morgan launching these coins is to offer large corporate clients a way of making international payments in real time. This could gradually replace the current global interbank funds transfer network known as SWIFT, whose wire transfer payments can sometimes take a whole business day to settle.

A few weeks later, the IMF and World Bank jointly announced the launch of Learning Coin, a private blockchain and quasi-cryptocurrency designed to help them better understand the technology. Facebook, too, was reported to be interested in launching a cryptocurrency.

Meanwhile, financial firm 20|30 became the first company to float on a mainstream regulated trading platform using blockchains, when it issued shares in the form of “equity tokens” similar to a cryptocurrency on the London Stock Exchange.

It is all a far cry from the rationale for creating bitcoins and blockchains in the first place: to decentralise finance away from the dollar-dominated system of fiat currencies and to gradually render financial institutions obsolete.

Good, bad and ugly

Yet this space remains attractive to those seeking to undermine US financial hegemony. Iran and Russia are both looking at launching state-backed cryptocurrencies, in response to US threats to disconnect them from the SWIFT payments system. This would enable these countries to join other blockchain-based payment networks, with the…
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Phil's Favorites

What China wants: 3 things motivating China's position in trade negotiations with the US

 

What China wants: 3 things motivating China's position in trade negotiations with the US

Courtesy of Penelope B. Prime, Georgia State University

Relations between the U.S. and China have deteriorated sharply in recent days after trade negotiations broke down, leading some to suggest we are on the cusp of a new “cold war.”

President Donald Trump blames the resumption of hostilities on China. Specifically, he and his negotiators say their Chinese counterparts backtracked on an agreement to change laws aimed at enforcing the ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

White House Planned To Use Huawei As Trade 'Bargaining Chip'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

If there was any lingering doubt that President Trump has treated Huawei like a 'bargaining chip' during trade talks with the Chinese, Bloomberg just put the issue to rest.

In a report sourced to administration insiders, BBG reported that the Trump administration waited to blacklist Huawei until talks with the Chinese had hit an impasse, because they were concerned that targeting Huawei would disrupt the talks.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities; Long-Term Bottom Being Created This Month?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodities creating a long-term bottom? What the index does at (3) over the next few weeks, will go a long way to answering this important question!

Commodities don’t have much to brag about over the past 8-years, as lower highs have taken place since the peak back in 2011. After the peak in 2011, they have created falling channel (1).

The index hit the top of this channel the prior two months at (2), creating back to back bearish reversal patterns.

Softness this month has the index testing 2017 lows and rising support at (3). While ...



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Insider Scoop

Off-Roaders Are In Buying Mood, BMO Says In Polaris Upgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

A long winter and the worst of the U.S.-China trade war may both be in the rearview mirror for off-road vehicle maker Polaris Industries Inc. (NYSE: PII), BMO Capital Markets said Tuesday.

The Analyst

Gerrick Johnson upgraded Polaris from Mark...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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