Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!
OnWisconsin
There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.
Jr Mints
I have been a member for over six years and I still learn something new every day. This site gives you the skills to trade without having to be spoon fed. More importantly it teaches you about risk which is WAY more important than profit. Honestly, it is not a get rich quick scheme!
Malsg
Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!
Jfawcett
Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably.
Happy New Years to you all!
JBur
This is my first month here. Today was a money train with futures. I gained 7500 USD with KC, RB, CL, NG.
I took RB almost every direction up and down. And I only used 1 contract or maximum 2.
Thank you. I think it was a good investment to subscribe…
Kgabor
Phil - I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. What would you advise for getting long again. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us!
TXChili
PSW AC Conf: For those who may be on the bubble, I attended my first PSW LV in November. It was a real eye-opener. What I accomplished in a couple of days of exposure to Phil, Pharm, Craig, et al made my previous couple of years of hanging around the web site seem silly. If you are inclined in the slightest, you really should go. Just rubbing shoulders with other PSW members proved to be really valuable. Strictly on the basis of value, it's a great deal. You will have real time conversations with Phil and the gang and they will get to your questions and agenda items.
Mjjwo9b
Phil/thankyou. Phil, I went over the recording of last weeks webinar. I liked it a lot and wanted to thank you. I thought the case studies (company reviews) were detailed, I learned more about selling puts process and also what happens if stock continues to go down after that, I liked the fact that we discuss so many different avenues like stocks, optiond, futures, oil, commodities etc… I replayed portions of it multiple times to make sure I was grasping it but wanted to say good job. Thanks…
Nramanuja
Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.
Scotbraze
Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.
Acd54
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
Investwizard
I have been a member off and on for years. Using these techniques I do consistently beat the S&P 500. Phil's Stock World has been the most important site in my financial life. It's impact on me over the past years has been huge. As have my tax bills!
Knightpilot
I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!
Jerseyside
Why were the analysts wrong?
If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also.
But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.
Denlundy
New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those
Deano
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?
Matt1966
Tesla et. al. – I've spent many months getting hammered shorting overvalued Momos, until, finally, I internalized Phil's message. Play small; give yourself plenty of room to double/move up the [lack of value] chain in terms of price. Play short; take [Musk's, eg.] latest bleep and sell the spike for a short time frame, because his tweets always come to naught. I've been coining money doing it, I just watch that premium melt away with scarcely veiled amusement. Swinging for the fences is for suckers [me, for a long time]. Those little gains really add up — $2k per week of evaporated premium and you could actually buy a Tesla by the end of the year!!
zeroxzero
Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!
Jomptien
100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!
SSDirk
Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.
Nramanuja
I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals).
In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.
Texasmotion
I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!
craigsa620
The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.
Winston
Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.
Coke
I am not a user of phil's site now, but was for a couple years. His advice and information is excellent. Perhaps even better, you get access to real-time trades of additional traders on his site (OptTrader, etc) and the other members who post what they are buying and selling. Overall, its a very valuable information tool. Expensive, but paid for itself many times over. I did not renew my membership because I switched jobs and did not have time to trade nearly as much.
XRTrader
I remember that call (to sell gold at $1,850) as well... and the many Buy-Writes that were created on your site during that period... thanks to you, I had an average ROI of close to 70% for over 2 years, averaging 4,000 trades per year. Busy trading, but lots of fun and memorable trades.
1234gel
Phil,
thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you.
I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week.
thank you!
DawnR
HOTT / Got great trades with it: Enter 6.75 at open, out at 7.18 (avg) at 10:13
Reentered at 7.00 and out all 7.11 few minutes ago- Was a small play but I collected enoght for next month PSW subscription.
Spider
Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas?
Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!
“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.”
—John Hussman, July 29, 2021
“If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot economy… What are you going to get out of this? You’re going to get a sugar high, the higher inflation, then an economic bust.”
—Stanley Druckenmiller, July 23, 2021
“It’s not riding the tiger that is the problem, it’s the dismount.”
—John Mauldin, today
This week’s Fed statement was another non-story. They added a new line about continuing to “assess progress” which some interpret as a step toward tapering. If so, it was a baby step. They’re simply thinking about whether they should start discussing the possibility of making a plan to begin tightening when conditions are right.
This means the Jackson Hole speech in August will likely be a nonevent, and the earliest the Fed will even consider beginning to taper its massive quantitative easing is at the December meeting. Rate hikes are not even a discussion yet.
All this is as predicted in my Federal Reserve Folly letter last week. To reiterate, I believe the Federal Reserve has already made a policy mistake that will lead to great mischief if not a recession, depending on when they normalize. The problem is, they have created conditions that will cause normalization to have its own repercussions.
We are passengers in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plane. I fear the turbulence will be consequential. Will Jerome Powell be able to safely land in an airport of his choosing, or will he need to be Sully Sullenberger and find the nearest runway, even if it’s the Hudson?
I am worried the Fed will either let inflation become psychologically entrenched, or wait too long to stop it and spark crisis with a too-hasty response, but there are other possibilities. None are especially good.…
Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil
Bobhu
/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
JohnO
Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions.
Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.
Bai2r
Phil – I wanted to tell you how much of a privilege it is to learn from your every day. You are a shining beacon in the life of so many investors. You have assembled probably the best group of people in the history of financial blogging and you, yourself have done more to help investors in the last 6 months than all previous financial advisors combined.
StJeanLuc
@Philip Davis, Per my review you are the best options trader that I have seen. You've made money for your investors and those that subscribe to your service. Many cudos to you for a just ahead of the curve buying or selling opportunity. Yes, you've hit HRs when others were hitting singles.
153972
I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.
TokyoLife
Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ?
I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.
1234Gel
SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.
Sibe14 (premium)
From following Phil I have opened up BCS and occasion will strangle some stocks. I will occasionally hedge using an ETF ultra. I have a big take down occasionally but so far I am way ahead of the S&P, and since buying into PSW some years ago by seeing Phil on Seeking Alpha I feel more confident in my abilities. FYI I am a retired entrepreneur formerly in the real estate and insurance businesses.
Newthugger
Hello Phil,
Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!
Microflux
Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!
RevTodd64
I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.
Knightpilot
I'd like to wish Phil and everyone else that contributes to this board a very Merry Christmas and happy New Year. The wealth of knowledge on here is incredible, and it has greatly contributed to my understanding of markets, politics, and the world in general. This year was when Phil's teachings all seemed to click in place, and my portfolio's performance shot up, and for that I am very grateful. Thank you!
Palotay
Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.
thechaser
thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….
Kwan
I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!
craigsa620
PSW AC Conf: For those who may be on the bubble, I attended my first PSW LV in November. It was a real eye-opener. What I accomplished in a couple of days of exposure to Phil, Pharm, Craig, et al made my previous couple of years of hanging around the web site seem silly. If you are inclined in the slightest, you really should go. Just rubbing shoulders with other PSW members proved to be really valuable. Strictly on the basis of value, it's a great deal. You will have real time conversations with Phil and the gang and they will get to your questions and agenda items.
Mjjwo9b
Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!
Gel1
Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.
Ricpar
Thank God for Phil.
A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.
jmm1951
Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.
Bcfla
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Chasw
Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!
Jromeha
Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here
Mopar
Aapl/Phil
Thanks for your advice, always appreciated.
So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop.
Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50
Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed.
And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings)
So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock.
Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not.
Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun!
More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset.
Thanks!
Maya1
Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…
Pharmboy
Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.
Iflantheman
I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.
KMisko
Phil
Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract!
Thanks
Kapella
Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!
Robinhood went public on Thursday, the old-fashioned way — via an IPO with underwriters after a roadshow. The IPO priced at $38 per share, yielding a valuation of $32 billion, and closed its first day of trading down 8.4%. The trading company’s debut is the worst on record among the 51 U.S. firms that have raised as much cash as Robinhood. (Disclosure: I am an investor in Public.com.)
So what will $30 billion buy? At first glance, Robinhood is a roaring success. In 2020 it registered revenue of $959 million, a 245% increase from 2019. RH boasted 18 million monthly active users in March 2021, up from 7 million a year prior. And in keeping with the company’s thesis, “to democratize finance for all,” female users tripled over the past year and more than 25% of users are now people of color, significantly more than at the incumbent brokerage houses.
However … I’ve written before about the problematic aspects of Robinhood’s gamification of investing. The company preys on human weakness, in particular young men’s susceptibility to gambling addiction. That’s still true, and RH’s IPO warrants a deeper dive into the firm’s business model.
What Is Robinhood?
The company operates a mobile app that enables consumers to trade stocks, options, and crypto. These orders are the company’s inventory, which it sells to “market makers” — large financial institutions that pare (execute) the trades in the market. As with Google or Facebook, Robinhood’s users are not its customers, but its supply.
This means Robinhood is incentivized to keep its users trading … a lot. The goal: make stock trading as addictive as social media scrolling. RH has enjoyed success here. The proportion of users who check it daily rivals those of Twitter, Snapchat, and Facebook.
Various financial products drive the company’s revenue, but one is especially lucrative: options. RH makes at least twice as much per options trade than it does on a…
It's been a wild ride with the S&P up and down with each result but, in the end, we're back where we started from and that's pretty much the all-time high at 4,382 this morning. 4,420 was the actual all-time high and that was way back yesterday but we started the week at 4,400 – so none of this is impressive. Still, neither AAPL or AMZN were any help to the markets and those two companies are 10% of the S&P 500 by themselves – that speaks well for the broader strength.
The Nasdaq started the week at 15,100 and is down 250 at 14,850 – still digesting AMZN's warning that it's not going to actually get better for the delivery giant, now that people can leave their homes again but there's still hope as the Delta Variant of Covid is shutting the World back down, so maybe AMZN does have another record quarter ahead of them?
Generally, earnings have been good and estimates for Q3 and Q4 are rising – ignorning the Delta Virus so far:
If those hold up, then 2022 estimates may also be too low but the undercurrent, so far, is that many companies have reported substantially higher commodity and, in some cases, labor costs, but most have been able to pass the higher costs on because consumers are flush with cash. S&P 500 margins have been hovering around 13% – record highs for the index and not likely to improve. The first round of inflation is clearly being won by the corporations – who have excuses to raise prices – whether they need to or not.
Traders are also playing the market as if the Fed will never raise rates and that the FREE MONEY train from Washington will never end either. Even with the optimistic outlook on 2022, we're still trading at 25x forward earnings – anything that goes wrong from here could be catastrophic.
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.
The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchmark asset, but many are also pegged to other fiat currencies issued by governments like the euro and yen. As a result, the price of stablecoins fluctuates very little, unlike high-profile cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum that are prone to sudden ups and downs.
The first stablecoin, created in 2014, was Tether, which many other stablecoins are modeled after. Users receive one token for every dollar they deposit. In theory, the tokens can then be converted back into the original currency at any time, also at a one-for-one exchange rate.
As of July 28, 2021, there were about US$62 billion in Tether outstanding, or a bit more than half of the $117 billion market capitalization of all stablecoins worldwide. The next-largest is known as USD Coin, which has a market cap of about $27 billion.
Why stablecoins matter
Originally, stablecoins were primarily used to buy other cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, because many cryptocurrency exchanges didn’t have access to traditional banking. They are more useful than country-issued currencies because you can use them 24 hours a day, seven days a week, anywhere in the world – without relying on banks. Money transfers take seconds to complete.
Another useful feature of stablecoins is that they can work with so-called smart contracts on blockchains, which, unlike conventional contracts, require no legal authority to be executed. The code in the software automatically dictates the terms of the agreement and how and when money will be transferred. This makes stablecoins programmable in ways that dollars can’t be.
Smart contracts have given rise to the use of stablecoins not only in seamless trading but also lending, payments, insurance, prediction markets and decentralized autonomous organizations – businesses that operate with limited human intervention.
Collectively, these software-based financial services…
Regulators in Beijing held a call with executives from global investors, Wall Street banks and Chinese financial groups last night, according to the Financial Times. The call sought to reassure the groups after China issued an effective ban on the country’s $100Bn private tutoring industry at the weekend, which led to concerns of a broader regulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies listed abroad.
During the call, CSRC vice-chair, Fang Xinghai, told the international groups China was committed to allowing companies to access capital markets and that the action on education technology businesses was an isolated situation. The ChiNext Index bounced 5% overnight with the CSI up 2%.
While it's very dangerous to take China at it's word, I'm liking DIDI, who have fallen below their IPO price of $14 to $8.87, which is a $10.5Bn market cap for a company with $30Bn in quickly growing sales (no profits so far but manageable losses). They are likely to be up 20% at the open, though. Amazon owns a piece of them and I think they are worth a toss down here so let's add them to our Future Is Now Portfolio as such (I'm estimating the opening prices):
Sell 20 DIDI Feb $10 puts forr $2.50 ($5,000)
Buy 50 DIDI Feb $10 calls for $3 ($15,000)
Sell 50 DIDI Feb $15 calls for $2 ($10,000)
That's a net $0 cost on the $25,000 spread and our only obligation is owning 2,000 shares of DIDI for $10 so, as long as we REALLY want to invest in DIDI over the long-haul, the risk of assignment should not bother us. The upside potential is a clean $25,000 if they get back to $15 and, of course, we intend to roll the Feb $10 calls out to longer strikes when they are published.
There's an incorrect rumor in the Wall Street Journal that says "Didi Weighs Going Private to Placate China, Investors," that is not true and makes no stratgic sense and shame on the WSJ for publishing fake news. …
Apple is the largest corporation on earth and, in the last quarter, their profits doubled versus the same quarter during the prior year. As my partner Barry likes to say, “Stop and think about it!”
Indeed, that’s f***ing bananas. Apples. Whatever.
Here’s what else Apple told us last night:
EPS: $1.30 vs. $1.01 estimated
Revenue: $81.41 billion vs. $73.30 billion estimated, up 36% year-over-year
iPhone revenue: $39.57 billion vs. $34.01 billion estimated, up 49.78% year-over-year
Services revenue: $17.48 billion vs. $16.33 billion estimated, up 33% year-over-year
Other Products revenue: $8.76 billion vs. $7.80 billion estimated, up 40% year-over-year
Mac revenue:$8.24 billion vs. $8.07 billion estimated, up 16% year-over-year
iPad revenue: $7.37 billion vs. $7.15 billion estimated, up 12% year-over-year
Gross margin: 43.3% vs. 41.9% estimated
All of these numbers are absolutely absurd. The sheer size of this business ought to preclude it from being able to post growth rates like these. And to continue exceeding Wall Street’s already bullish projections, quarter over quarter – it defies everything we’ve ever seen in the history of modern capitalism. And in terms of its sheer size, influence, market power and utter dominance over its categories, there are no comps. Not the Vatican, not the Dutch East India Company, not the South Sea Company, nothing even comes close.
And they continue to raise the bar, continue to grow in profitability, power and possibility for shareholders. They do buybacks. They pay dividends. They spend on CapEx. They make acquisitions. They hire and create jobs. They innovate. They execute. There’s very little anyone could offer in the way of criticism in terms of how this business has gotten to this point. There are no tricks. There’s no subterfuge.
So maybe – it’s just possible – that the rally we’ve seen in shares of Apple and the other technology, consumer and communications giants has been justified. I know this premise is infuriating to the people who’ve sat it out.
“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.”
—John Hussman, July 29, 2021
“If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot economy… What are you going to get out of this? You’re going to get a sugar high, the higher inflation, then an economic bust.”
There are 86 large wildfires that have burned 1,498,205 acres in 12 US states and emit large quantities of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and dangerous particulate matter into the atmosphere this summer that could affect wine weed and Christmas.
The West Coast fire season is off to a fiery start, and an abundance of smoke can destroy precious vineyards and damage the fruit.
University of California Davis researchers say California's wine cou...
With less than half the United States population fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and as the delta variant sweeps the nation, the U.S. surgeon general issued an advisory that called misinformation ...
Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!
Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).
It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.
The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).
A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...
The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.
Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...
The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt
On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...
The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign.
Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.”
Well, we made it through earnings.
Big reversal.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.
