TGIF – Trump, Tariffs and the Game of Monopoly – Why You Should Care:

$505 Billion!

Trump has now threatened to put a tariff on every single Dollar's worth of goods we import from China, ratcheting up the Trade War talk to unprecedented levels.  Of course, we're still at just $50Bn and Trump never followed through with his threat to add $200Bn before doubling down to $505Bn but he is still the President of the United States and you can't totally ignore the things he says – no matter how much you wish you could.  

As you can see from this WSJ chart, despite all the bluster, not much has actually happened so far but thank God for that as just the $50Bn that's already been enacted is causing disruptions in Corporate Earnings and Economic Outlook – there's no question in rational people's minds that actually enacting $250Bn worth of tariffs, let alone $505Bn, would be devastating for the Global Economy and yes, deplorables, the Global Economy INCLUDES America!  

Tariffs are a TAX on the American people and the real reason your President wants to put a 25% tax on $505Bn worth of Chinese Imports is that it will generate another $126.25Bn that he can use to give more tax breaks to his family and friends and it will allow his budget committee to project collecting $1.26 TRILLION in revenues over the next decade, which he can then use to either claim he has brought down the deficit or use to offset more military spending, etc.  

And who pays this tax?  Attention Wal Mart shoppers – it's YOU!  Who do you think is the primary consumer of Chinese goods?  $505Bn happens to be the exact annual sales of Wal Mart and, if I had a TV show, I would challenge people coming out of Wal Mart to find something they've bought that didn't come from China.  Of course there are plenty of things but you'd be very surprised how much is Chinese as well as, of course, the Dollar Stores, phones, etc.   

So a tariff is just a fancy word for a tax on American consumers, especilly the poor ones who can least afford it and no, they will not switch to "lower-priced" American goods because we don't even have factories that make 90% of the stuff China ships to us and all a…
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  • Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash. Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you. That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash.

    Julian

  • Phil/CLK4 – Perfect! Saw the answer 1 min after my post…out with $740 on two contracts. Thanks again for the education.

    Jeffdoc2004

  • I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

    Jerseyside

  • Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

    Ban2

  • Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions. Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.

    Bai2r

  • I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

    Captain Mogul

  • Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

    Chaffey

  • Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

    mSquare

  • What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????

    Jablams

  • Thanks, Phil!!! I just crushed today with it with silver (SLV) calls today, thanks to your persistent reminders of how ridiculously cheap it has become, and watching my TSLA this week $240 puts dissolve into chump change added an extra note of amusement.

    Zeroxzero

  • Peace of mind / I have a portfolio mainly consisting of long term long calls, short term short calls and puts, and long term BCS. Three years, ago when I started my journey on this board I would be freaking out panicking as to what to do, as many of the short calls are ITM, Three years later (today) I look at the screen and serenely process the information. Three years ago, I inevitably made the wrong decisions which cost me a lot of money. Three years on I calmly roll the positions to whatever makes sense. No drama, no hair pulling, and a great cost saver. I guess they call that the power of education.

    Winston

  • Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

    Ocelli7

  • WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.

    Craigzooka

  • You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

    Corleone

  • I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves. As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult. I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !

    1234Gel

  • WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?

    Matt1966

  • I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!

    craigsa620

  • I like the retirement picks too. The futures trading is certainly more sexy, but the boring retirement picks are the ones that consistently make me money.

    jjennings

  • Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

    HJ Kobbeman

  • Bought some QQQ's today on the dip. Added a little bit more to my son's account. Up about 8% in 2 months! I think I've learned some stuff here. Thanks to all that contribute, and of course to the boss. Thanks Phil!

    JeffDoc

  • Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

    RMM

  • I have been a member for over six years and I still learn something new every day. This site gives you the skills to trade without having to be spoon fed. More importantly it teaches you about risk which is WAY more important than profit. Honestly, it is not a get rich quick scheme!

    Malsg

  • Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

    Magret

  • There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.

    Jr Mints

  • Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!

    Investwizard

  • Why were the analysts wrong? If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also. But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.

    Denlundy

  • Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

    JWick1981

  • Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

    Oknoman

  • Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

    Gel1

  • Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours. Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!

    Eyezz

The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 07-18-18

The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar – 07-18-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

 

Major Topics:

00:04:02 – Checking on the Markets
00:05:27 – Moneytalk Portfolio Review
00:12:15 – Top Trades
00:20:38 – Crude Oil
00:24:45 – Coffee
00:26:10 – Gold & Silver
00:29:05 – RDFN
00:33:57 – OIH
00:46:00 – Trade Ideas
00:50:56 – Beige Book
01:17:46 – Aging US Population
01:26:00 – Midyear Trade Review

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





$2,000 Thursday – Our Live Trading Webinar Makes a Quick Two Grand!

I love it when a plan comes together.  

In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here) we worked our way into 6 short Dow (/YM) Futures shorts at an average of about 25,167 and we rode them down this morning to the 25,100 line for a quick $2,000 gain on the set and then, in our Live Member Chat Room, we called for a follow-on short below the 25,100 line, with a target of 25,000 for another $500 per contract gain.

It's been a busy week as we have options expirations so we're reviewing our 5 Member Portfolios, one of which we share with the viewers of Business News Network's (Canada's Bloomberg) Money Talk in a portfolio where we only initiate and change trades on the show so every single trade is available to the viewers live.  The disadvange to that restriction is that we can't make adjustments between shows (I'm on quarterly) so we try to stick to low-touch value trades but, as we teach our Members, trading does not have to be exciting to be profitable and our Money Talk Portfolio is already up 68.6% since we intiated it last September (10 months).  Not bad for free samples!  

You can see the review of the adjustments we made yesterday at www.philstockworld.com/moneytalk and here are the clips from the show talking about the market, the portfolio and adding a new trade idea on General Foods (GIS):

Money Talk segments #1 and #2:  

As noted, we are moving to a lot more CASH!!! and were shorting the market as we're taking the trade war more seriously than other investors seem to be and, just this morning, to prove my point, there was more saber-rattling from the President about Auto Tariffs, which would be a horrifically bad idea for the entire Global Economy.  That's what sent the market lower, despite pretty good earnings reports so far.

Just because we're generally bearish doesn't mean we can't find values in the market – they are just few and far between.  On BNN I noted that Barrick Gold (ABX) at
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Understanding the rollercoaster ride of oil prices

 

Understanding the rollercoaster ride of oil prices

File 20180627 112604 1ur15pd.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Gas prices usually rise heading into long weekends. The reasons behind wild oil price fluctuations, reflected at the pumps, is about a lot more than economics. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward

Courtesy of Atif Kubursi, McMaster University

Canada Day weekend is upon us, and long holiday weekends usually mean higher prices at the gas pumps. This Canada Day weekend, however, analysts aren’t forecasting a big increase, although gas prices are higher than they were last year at this time.

Nonetheless, gas price fluctuations of the last few months raise questions about oil production, distribution, pricing and exploration. All involve complex issues of economics. But they’re largely politically motivated or politically determined.

Regulation and taxation of the oil industry is a matter of political policy. Regulation of oil flows, as all other economic flows among nations, is viewed by all governments as a political function.

The subject as a whole is not about the economics of oil. Rather, and more accurately, it is the political economy of oil.

Price has little to do with supply & demand

In a more general sense, oil prices, unlike the price of potatoes or other commodities, are not determined by the supply and demand of physical oil; every barrel of physical oil is now traded nine to 12 times on future markets.

Speculators play a crucial role in overshooting price responses, downwards or upwards. Selling short oil is profitable when its price is falling, and this can create an avalanche of sales that push prices far below their fundamental value. This is also true in the event that oil prices start to rise. Forward buying can push prices higher than where they’ll eventually settle.

The demand for oil is known as what’s called price inelastic — it has limited substitutes, if any. Oil quantities aren’t responsive to price changes; a lower price does not create large increases in quantity demanded.

Pumpjacks at work pumping crude oil near Halkirk, Alta., in June 2007. Canada’s oil industry is expected to be


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The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio – June 17, 2018 update

Money Talk Portfolio Review:   I am doing the show tomorrow so I have to put this together first.  Sadly, we dropped a lot since our June 14th review, when we were at $92,727 (85.5%) but now down to $84,300 (68.6%), mostly due to LB's pullback and our inability to roll SQQQ like we did in the STP/OOP.  Nonetheless, up 68.6% since Sept doesn't suck and now we can make some adjustments! 

I'm a bit concerned about the rest of the summer so we're going to be cautious – especially with these gains to lock in. 

  • ALK – I'm very confident in the next $51.80 entry so no change here.  Earnings are 7/26 so we'll watch those carefully but expectations are low (about $1.65) and they made $2.51 last Q2, so I'm only worried about guidance.  Anticipate making $3,725 more on this one.
  • IMAX – Lots of blockbusters ahead should be good for them but this spread is well in the money and can be cashed out for $8.80/4.10 for net $4.70 ($9,400) out of a possible $5 so it's not worth the risk as we can't make interim adjustments so we'll take the profit off the table.  
  • SQQQ – We still need a hedge and


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Weakening Wednesday – Powell’s Testimony Doesn’t Really Help

The Fog of Truth.

That's what Robert Reich calls the confusion and bewilderment Americans feel when listening to the President but the same can be said for our New Federal Reserve Chariman, Jerome Powell, who testified before the Senate yesterday and will testify again tomorrow without actually saying anything at all but, like the parable of the blind men feeling an elephant – everyone will be able to draw a conclusion about what he said – even if those conclusions are diametrically opposed to each other

CNBC says "Powell backs more rate hikes as economy growing "considerably stronger"" while Market Watch says Treasury yeilds are heading lower on doveish testimony and CBS says "Jay Powell shrugs off trade worries, expects rates to keep rising" and Bloomberg says "Powell's 'For Now' Caveat a Sign Fed Rate Hikes Not on Autopilot."  So Jerome Powell, like the President, is all things to all people – whatever you want to think he said – he kind of said it.

Is that really what we want in a Fed Chairman?  Why is our monetary policy a closely guarded secret?  There was, briefly, a movement to make the Fed more transparent and have them set firm tartgets for actions well ahead of time but investment banks can't make money if EVERYONE know what the Fed is going to do – who would they be able to bet against with their inside information?

It doesn't get more inside than Goldman Sachs, of course, who have alumni like Neel Kashkari, Stephen Friedman, Bill Dudly, Patrick Harker and Robert Kaplan.  In fact, there are 12 GS Alumni currently on the Fed Board (not to mention Carney heading the Bank of England, and, of course Draghi at the ECB)  and Goldman was even fined $50M after one of it's emploees was caught obtaining regulatory documents from former collegues at the NY Fed but don't worry, no one has been caught since!  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is also a former GS partner.   

And, of course, a few Trillion Dollars worth of our National Debt (which you and your children owe) was accrued by the Fed (who still have $4.5Tn worth of debt on their balance sheet) bailing out Goldman and other…
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Zero Hedge

Dollar Tumbles As Trump Blasts China, EU "Currency Manipulation", Fed "Tightening"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After bouncing yesterday following White House reassurances of Fed independence and PBOC's big weakening of the Yuan fix, the dollar is tumbling again this morning... accelerating after Trump tweeted that "China, EU are manipulating their currencies," adding that Fed "tightening now hurts all that we have done."

China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For July 20, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE: SWK) to report quarterly earnings at $2.04 per share on revenue of $3.50 billion before the opening bell. Stanley Black & Decker shares gained 0.98 percent to close at $139.65 on Thursday.
  • Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: ...


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Phil's Favorites

Why Comcast and Disney's bidding war for Sky has reached astronomical heights

 

Why Comcast and Disney's bidding war for Sky has reached astronomical heights

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The bidding war between Comcast and Disney for European pay-TV giant Sky’s operations seems to have paused at Comcast’s latest bid. But not before reaching astronomical heights, reflective of the dubious thinking that is driving a lot of mergers and acquisitions at the moment.

Bidding by the two major US entertainment businesses for Sky had reached US$34 billion – with Comcast trumping Disney’s previous bid in the region of US$32 billion. This is ...



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Chart School

Small Caps Enjoy Best of Action

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn't a whole lot going on today except Small Caps were able to attract some buyers despite finishing below resistance; bulls have been taking advantage of the 20-day MA test. Today's action coincided with 'buy' signals in the MACD and +DI/-DI.


The S&P held its breakout and today's losses - despite higher volume selling - didn't do a whole lot of damage.

...

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Digital Currencies

Citadel CEO Says Bitcoin Still A "Head Scratcher" But Billionaire Lasry Sees $40,000 Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Ken Griffin, the CEO and founder of the Citadel hedge fund, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with CNBC this morning.

Speaking at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York, ...



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Biotech

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>