Philstockworld September Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,199,597!

That is DOWN $195,130 for our paired portfolios for the month, but still up over 100% for the year.  We have a very large, very volatile bet on Tesla (TSLA) that we're riding out and that let both to last month's huge gain and this month's huge loss but last month showed us the massive potential the position has as it's currently net -$881,087 so, if TSLA ends up between $300 and $380 in January (now $450), we stand to almost double our entire portfolio on that one position.   

I was going to say I don't like the super-volatile positions but that's not true – I do like them as we're selling TONS of premium to people who think stocks go up or down forever and have no rules but I DON'T like them in margin-limited portfolio or in portfolios that aren't miles ahead and can afford to take chances.  Not only can we afford to take a chance this year but we're also locking in our 100% gains using TSLA as it pays us almost as much to the downside ($881,087) as our entire Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) is worth ($1,043,965)! 

But, spoilers, let's just take a look at where we stand and move on from there.  As we expected, the Fed and Congress have fired their stimulus guns this week and the reaction from the market has been a big shrug as evidenced by the shouldering down move in the S&P 500 this week:

While that's going on, Donald Trump's victim count is hitting 200,000 but that's nothing compared to what we're about to see as our kids finish their second week at school as two weeks is just about the time when it's already too late and local Governments realize what a huge mistake re-opening too early has been.  While we know Trump doesn't care about California and New York having 100,000 combined deaths this year, he'll be losing 60,000 voters in Florida and Texas as well.  

Early indications are that sending the kids back to school is already becoming a "super-spreader" event for the whole country and 50,000
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  • Phil/CLK4 – Perfect! Saw the answer 1 min after my post…out with $740 on two contracts. Thanks again for the education.

    Jeffdoc2004

  • Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.

    DB

  • I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.

    Denlundy

  • Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"

    Gel1

  • Great calls this week!

    SNS1

  • Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

    Greg

  • Hey Phil - writing to thank you! First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable! I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

    Bcfla

  • WISH TO EXTEND A BIG THANK YOU! I netted about $18,000 on the short Jan puts and the annualized ROI/M is mind boggling! Hope to meet you some day and buy you and your significant other a nice dinner. Best Regards Newt

    Newthugger

  • WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?

    Matt1966

  • Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

    Doro165

  • Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

    Josiah

  • Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

    dclark41

  • Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.

    Zeroxzero

  • Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!

    Jelutuck

  • Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

    dclark41

  • thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

    Kwan

  • I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

    Gel1

  • Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably. Happy New Years to you all!

    JBur

  • Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

    Barfinger

  • Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

    Jordan

  • I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.

    Knightpilot

  • Phil I must say that it was really nice to have a portfolio that was looking very stable in the face of a rough day for the markets. I ended the day up 0.3% which includes another successful day of futures trading. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, DIS, etc., along with a couple of hedges that paid off nicely today, and my futures trades, I never had to break a sweat during that madhouse today. Yes, by George (or Phil), I may be learning this system!

    Craig

  • Against all prognostics (bears) Phil pointed in the morning the correct direction, and in middle of day he pointed the possible move to 2.5% Incredible… I'm starting to serious believe on the program trading and the human nature behind the programing those "trade-bots".

    Spider

  • Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.

    JWick1981

  • Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,

    Deano

  • Greetings Phil, I am an Economist at Harvard and some of my colleagues and I would like to let you know that we follow your posts on SA, and find your analysis refreshing, rigorous, and acute. Great work! Though many of us (including myself) have our work covered in the Wall St Journal, in many ways your macro commentary is more fearless and accurate than what is generally found in that venerable publication. Kind regards, Daniel

    Daniel

  • Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…

    Arivera

  • Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

    thechaser

  • I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

    Jerseyside

  • Bought some QQQ's today on the dip. Added a little bit more to my son's account. Up about 8% in 2 months! I think I've learned some stuff here. Thanks to all that contribute, and of course to the boss. Thanks Phil!

    JeffDoc

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 09-16-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!

 

Major Topics:

00:01:05 – S&P 500
00:06:55 – Global Warming
00:23:58 – LNG
00:38:41 – Trading Techniques
00:43:02 – M
00:48:07 – Currencies
01:10:27 – TSLA
01:15:50 – LTP
01:17:24 – FCX
01:18:11 – TIF
01:19:74 – M
01:21:51 – BRK-B
01:22:57 – CSCO
01:23:07 – HMY
01:25:22 – VIAC | VLO
01:25:56 – WBA
01:26:27 – Trading Techniques
01:27:59 – M

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!

You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here





Federal Reserve hopes years of zero rates will spur inflation – but there are risks

 

Federal Reserve hopes years of zero rates will spur inflation – but there are risks

Prices tend to go up over time. SelectStock/E+ via Getty Images

By Richard S. Warr, North Carolina State University

In a healthy economy, prices tend to go up – a process called inflation.

While you might not like that as a consumer, moderate price growth is a sign of a growing economy. And, historically at least, wages tend to go up at about the same pace during periods of inflation.

But right now, the U.S. economy is far from healthy and inflation has been relatively subdued in recent years, which can hurt growth. This has prompted the Federal Reserve to pledge to keep interest rates at basically zero until at least through 2023 and try to spur inflation by allowing it to rise above the 2% sweet spot it targets for the economy.

I’ve been studying inflation and its impact for many years. A closer look at how inflation works helps show why getting inflation just right, neither too low nor too high, will be very tricky.

What is inflation?

Inflation is defined as the rate of change in the prices of everything from a bar of Ivory soap to the cost of an eye exam.

In the U.S., the most commonly used measure of inflation is based on something called the consumer price index. Simply put, the index is the average price of a basket of goods and services that households typically purchase. It’s often used to determine pay raises or to adjust benefits for retirees. The year-over-year change is what we call the inflation rate.

The index was up just 1% in July from a year earlier. But this is an average across a range of categories. For example, over the last year, motor vehicle insurance rose 9.1%, while the price of apparel fell 0.4%. Clearly, the actual change in cost of living will vary from person to person depending on how they spend their money.

A moderate amount of inflation is generally considered to be a sign of a healthy economy, because as the…
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Faltering Thursday – Reality Rears it’s Ugly Head

The truth.

We don't get a lot of that in America these days.  Remember when we used to pity the poor Russians, who were being fed misinformation by their Government from the state-run media?  While it certainly can't make Fox news any more of a GOP propoganda network than it already is, now they featuring Trump weekly, violating the Equal-Time Rule that says "U.S. radio and television broadcast stations must provide an equivalent opportunity to any opposing political candidates".  This means, for example, that if a station gives a given amount of time to a candidate in prime time, it must do the same for another candidate who requests it, at the same price if applicable.

We know this is going on with our Political News but you also need to be aware this goes on with our Financial News as well.  Fox News (Murdoch) is sponsored by GOP supporters, Climate Deniers, Covid Deniers and, of course, the keep America White crowd while CNBC, Fox Financial (Murdoch) and the Wall Street Journal (Murdoch) are so embedded with the Government that Larry Kudlow, of CNBC's Kudlow and Cramer is the White House Economic Adviser.  While that, of course, makes sense when you have a Reality TV President – it doesn't make a lot of sense if you were, for example, trying to run a $20Tn economy. As noted by American Progress:

One would think that news organizations ostensibly devoted to understanding and explaining Wall Street would know better. Either way, the dishonest propaganda push undertaken by CNBC and the Wall Street Journal is politically disconcerting from the standpoint of a functioning, well-informed democracy. From the standpoint of moral and intellectual honesty, it is downright criminal.

Matt Wuerker's Editorial Cartoons - Roger Ailes Editorial Cartoons | The  Editorial CartoonsAnd that moral and intellectual dishonesty is affecting your health, your safety and your portfolio.  As much as you KNOW that these networks are lying when they are denying climate change, promoting miracle vaccines or propping up despicable bastards for public office – you have to realize they are ALSO lying to you when they tell you how great the economy is and what to invest in.  …
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What Happens if Interest Rates Rise?

 

What Happens if Interest Rates Rise?

Courtesy of 

The lower interest rates go, the less people worry about rising rates.

When rates are at 4% for example, it seems entirely possible that they can go to 7%. “Oh no, what’ll happen to my principal?”

But with rates hovering around 1%, the idea that rates are going to shoot to 4% or higher isn’t front and center. Right now, investors are saying, “Oh no, what happened to my income?”

Obviously bonds are very sensitive to changes in interest rates, but they’re hardly alone in this manner. I thought this snippet from GMO’s most recent quarterly letter, which hits on this topic, was worth sharing.

Allocating to Value stocks also helps lower the duration of your portfolio. Value tends to have a higher dividend yield, so you get more of your return earlier than with Growth stocks, where you are more dependent on cash flows further into the future.

I don’t know that low rates are responsible for growth outperforming value, and I also don’t know that rising rates would cause this to reverse. But either way, I thought this idea that value stocks could lower the duration of your portfolio by returning cash earlier was interesting. The chart below shows the dividend yield of large growth compared with large value.

What can change the growth > value dynamic that’s been in place for the last few years? Hard to say. A simple yet unsatisfying explanation is investor preferences change. In a low growth world, it makes sense to pay up for businesses that have explosive growth. But what if investors end up paying too much for growth that doesn’t materialize? In that case, maybe they’ll favor stocks that, while aren’t growing their earnings as fast, are trading at an attractive price relative to their fundamentals. It’s hard to imagine it now, but that’s often where the best opportunities often lie.





Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

And once again the Futures are up.  

As you can see from the S&P chart, we have had some massive gaps up in

the thinly traded open and then drifted down during real trading at the end of the day.  This is like someone who works for the auction house shouting "100 Million Dollars" on the first bid for a painting to make sure the other suckers in the audience start bidding higher.

In the case of the markets, the Banksters buy up the Futures on thin trading (so it's very cheap to do) and cause the Retail Suckers to pour in and chase the momentum so the Banksters can dump their stocks all day long during real volume trading.  This is how rich people exit the market – they create a buying atmosphere and they take their profits while poor people follow their advice – which doesn't actually apply to their own actions.  You see the big brokerage houses doing that all the time, exiting positions while their analysts are pumping the Tesla stock.

We had a good day yesterday shorting the Dow (/YM) Futures from our trade idea in the Morning Report and congratulations to all who played along.  Our morning call for our Members was:

So we're sticking with our strategy of shorting the indexes (which didn't work yesterday) as we're likely to be rejected here (Dow (/YM) 28,100, S&P (/ES) 3,405, Nasdaq (/NQ) 11,475 and Russell (/RTY) 1,550) and, as usual, we can just short the laggards, which would be /ES crossing below 3,400 and /YM confirming below 28,000 – we should catch a quick ride down but the Fed goes tomorrow and that should give the marketsupport until they are disappointed by that so tight stops above!

As you can see, this wasn't rocket science, the pivot points on the Dow were 28,014 and 27,795 and we simply allowed for the pre-market BS pump job and took a stab at shorting early but once we confirmed the move below 28,000, it was a no-brained to jump in for the 200-point drop on the Dow (at $5 per point, per contract!).  This morning we're back to 28,000 again but we have a Fed Meeting at…
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Zero Hedge

The Ultra Wealthy Are Selling Billions Of Dollars In Stock

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the market has "rebounded" off its lows back in March, the world's super wealthy are jumping at the chance to offload billions of dollars in stock while global central banks - and most notably the Federal Reserve - keeps a bid under the market and acts as a Mr. Magoo-like counterparty.

Many investors have been prompted to sell by market volatility over the last two weeks, which appears as though it could be signaling an end to the V-shaped recovery. This has likely helped spook the ultra wealthy into take some cash off the table. 

Seo Sang-young, an analy...



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ValueWalk

Markets Crash Two Days In A Row: The American Dream Is Dead

By Eloise Williams. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The American dream is dead, she thinks to herself. After all her hard work. All the blood, sweat and tears. Long nights in the office away from her family.  Diligently saving up every penny so they could have that white picket fence. A big screen television. And even an iPhone 11 Pro.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The American Dream Is Officially Dead

Emma slowly sips her bourbon while sitting on her porch. Deep wrinkles caused by stress are embedded into her once smooth face. A chunk of her blonde hair falls to the ground.&#x...



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Phil's Favorites

What if he doesn't leave?

 

What if he doesn’t leave?

Courtesy of 

If Donald Trump loses the election – by any margin – does anyone see him actually conceding? Me neither. Biden may not be so fast to concede either, especially given the nature of a pandemic at the polls. The (mostly made up) controversy about mail-in ballots is sure to make this an election to remember. Contested elections have been rare in recent history, but not unheard of. How might the market react, before, during and after?

Listen to the new episode of my ...



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Politics

What if he doesn't leave?

 

What if he doesn’t leave?

Courtesy of 

If Donald Trump loses the election – by any margin – does anyone see him actually conceding? Me neither. Biden may not be so fast to concede either, especially given the nature of a pandemic at the polls. The (mostly made up) controversy about mail-in ballots is sure to make this an election to remember. Contested elections have been rare in recent history, but not unheard of. How might the market react, before, during and after?

Listen to the new episode of my ...



more from Politics

Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Breakout Triggers Buy Signal, Is $3000 Next Target?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

90-days ago this cup & handle pattern was discussed on See It Market when Gold was trading at 1717.

Fast-forward to today and Gold is up 15 percent. So it’s time for an update!

As we pointed out 90-days ago, the initial price magnet for the rally was the 261.8 Fibonacci extension that marked the 2011 high at (1).

That high has served as price resistance for nearly 9 years! …But it may be ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

 

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

Firefighters have battled camp crud before, but COVID-19 brings new risks with the potential for heart and lung damage. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

By Luke Montrose, Boise State University

Two forces of nature are colliding in the western United States, and wildland firefighters are caught in the middle.

Emerging research suggests that ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Golds bullish trend has worked well in 2020, so what is next over the immediate 3 to 6 months? Will we continue to see a golden future.

The US dollar had been strong into COVID 19, since then the FED has printing a lot of money, and they are also considering YCC (Yield Curve Control), last seen during WW2. [Note YCC lasted 9 years over WW2. WOW, that is a lot of money printing.]

The FED is now forecast to over take competing central banks balance sheets in size, and the release valve will be a falling US dollar. Therefore we should continue to see the US dollar maintain is slow leak down over the next 3 to 6 month, say on the DXY 82 to 88. 

Also, US election worries will add to the weakening of the dollar. Of course extreme chaos in W...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.