Thrilling Thursday – Markets Make a Remarkable Comeback While You Sleep
by phil - August 16th, 2018 9:31 am
Nice reversal!
The Dow is actually 100 points higher this morning than it was yesterday after falling 300 points at yesterday's lows. Kudos to Doug, our Hedge Fund trader at Capital Ideas, who actually said to me yesterday morning that "this whole thing can end the day with the Dow higher" – he was only off by 12 hours…
Our first attempt at going long, from the Morning Report, was a failure as we blasted through all those levels but what fantastic entries we got during the day, as noted in our Live Member Chat Room:
August 15th, 2018 at 10:37 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink
Indexes getting worse, not even going to attempt to go long again. Gold and silver way off too. /SI at $14.50, WPM getting killed so good time to sell the 2020 $20 puts for $3+.
/SI $14.40? Wow! /NQ just hit 7,340, that's down 120 for the day, about 1.5% so look for 25-point bounces to 7,365 (weak) and 7,405 (strong) but OUCH!
August 15th, 2018 at 11:18 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink
Huge 10MB build is very, very bad but note /RB had a draw so best bet to play at $1.99 but VERY DANGEROUS TRADE as the market is crazy at the moment and it's still more than two weeks to the holiday and we have a rollover in between.
We really want to play /RBV8, long which is Oct at $1.884 at the moment!
August 15th, 2018 at 11:32 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink
/KC/Palotay – Ugh, I forgot I have 3 long /KCN9 that are getting clobbered. Same as /SI though – great chance to get in at a cheap price ($114), if you can stand the pain.
…
Posted in Appears on main page | Join Member's Chat - 52 Comments Here »
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Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,
HJ Kobbeman
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Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably. Happy New Years to you all!
JBur
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I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
2Can
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Phil, I don't know if I told you lately but you da man! I'm doing so much better following your guidelines. It's like you actually know what you are talking about. 8-) I've tried a lot of services and none of them are as comprehensive or honest AND successful. I appreciate all youz other guys/gals input as well…learning tons as a relative newbie to this game.
Aclend
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Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.
Jomptien
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Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.
Winston
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Greetings Phil, I am an Economist at Harvard and some of my colleagues and I would like to let you know that we follow your posts on SA, and find your analysis refreshing, rigorous, and acute. Great work! Though many of us (including myself) have our work covered in the Wall St Journal, in many ways your macro commentary is more fearless and accurate than what is generally found in that venerable publication. Kind regards, Daniel
Daniel
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I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.
Dennis
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Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.
Winston
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Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke
Coke
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Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
Mkozberg
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Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.
Smasher
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Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.
Judahbenhur
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I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.
Kustomz
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You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.
Corleone
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Why were the analysts wrong? If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also. But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.
Denlundy
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Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !
Gel1
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Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!
Neverworkagain
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Peace of mind / I have a portfolio mainly consisting of long term long calls, short term short calls and puts, and long term BCS. Three years, ago when I started my journey on this board I would be freaking out panicking as to what to do, as many of the short calls are ITM, Three years later (today) I look at the screen and serenely process the information. Three years ago, I inevitably made the wrong decisions which cost me a lot of money. Three years on I calmly roll the positions to whatever makes sense. No drama, no hair pulling, and a great cost saver. I guess they call that the power of education.
Winston
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Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!
Gel1
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I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
JeffDoc
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Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ? I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.
1234Gel
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Well that was a fun day. Cashed out my GS 140 calls for about 35% profit and my AAPL calls for 38% gain. Not bad for 40 minutes of work. Back to 85% cash.
Singapore Steve
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Phil - FAS - I dont know whether to be happier I averaged down and sold calls or that I got myself out of FAZ the other day…thanks for that help
BCFla
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thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….
Kwan
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Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.
Steve
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1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!
Phil Pearlman - StockTwits
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Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!
Jelutuck
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By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!
Microflux
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Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.
Ben1Be
Apple’s $1 trillion value doesn’t mean it’s the ‘biggest’ company
by ilene - August 15th, 2018 7:48 pm
Apple's $1 trillion value doesn't mean it's the 'biggest' company
Courtesy of Jerry Davis, University of Michigan
On Aug. 2, Apple became the first U.S. public corporation to achieve a US$1 trillion valuation, making it the largest company in the world – by one measure at least.
A New York Times article proclaimed that this milestone “reflects the rise of powerful megacompanies” that control a large and growing share of all corporate profits. It also warned that this phenomenon might be contributing to stagnant wages, a shrinking middle class and rising income inequality, suggesting regulators may need to rein them in or break them up.
But what exactly defines a “megacompany”? And what would make it so powerful that it needs dismantling, like “Ma Bell” back in the 1980s?
As a scholar of corporations, I believe that if we want to understand – and regulate – big companies, it’s important to be clear on the very different meanings of “big.”
When General Motors was the most valuable U.S. company, it was big in many ways, including having the second-most employees. AP Photo
Yesterday’s ‘big’
When Fortune magazine first wanted to create a roster of America’s 500 biggest corporations in 1955, revenue was the obvious way to think about size.
A “major corporation” was one that sold a lot of products. With almost $10 billion in annual sales, thanks to its 54 percent share of the U.S. auto market, General Motors topped Fortune’s list that year.
But GM was also big in most every other way, including its stock market valuation or “market cap” (where it was No. 1), assets (No. 2, after AT&T) and employment (also just behind AT&T at 624,000). Indeed, for much of the post-war era the biggest corporations were big in every way, and market cap was very highly correlated with revenues, employment and assets.
Not anymore. The post-industrial corporation of today is often heavy on market cap but, like Apple, light on employment and hard assets.
Let’s look
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Whipsaw Wednesday – Futures Collapse as Turkey Strikes Back With Tariffs – What Will Happen When China Does?
by phil - August 15th, 2018 8:21 am
Does our economy have a glass jaw?
We like to punch others but it doesn't look like we can take one as the Futures where KO'd with one punch as Turkey announced they would raise tariffs on US goods and boycott other goods like, gasp, iPhones which are, I think, 90% of the US economy. “For the sake of a pastor, they have come to the point of breaking relations with Turkey,” Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin told reporters in Ankara on Wednesday. It's not so much Turkey as the realization that ALL the other countries we are in a Trade War with (ie. ALL the other countries) may stop rolling over and start going on the attack against Trump and his bullying tactics.
Turkey is already benefiting from standing up to Trump with a 7% pop in the Lira this morning but it's still down over 30% against the Dollar this year, so nothing for them to celebrate over at the moment. The decree signed by Erdogan doubled Turkish tariffs on passenger cars to 120%, on alcoholic drinks to 140% and on tobacco to 60%. Tariffs were also doubled on goods such as cosmetics, rice and coal.
The United States was the fourth largest source of imports to Turkey last year, accounting for $12Bn of imports and, as noted yesterday, Turkey's GDP is $850Bn – so they really don't have that much to lose cutting off relations with the US while we desperately need their strategic location for NATO defense. In other words, it's another victory Trump has handed to Putin and Russia as we push Turkey out of NATO's arms and back to Russia – something that was competely unthinkable before Trump got "elected".
Hey, but at least there are no tapes (remaining) of Trump saying the "N" word over and over again on his Apprentice set because THAT would be bad, right? Not that it would matter, Trump would just spin it the way he's spinning the Russia investigation – relentlessly until people aren't sure what to believe anymore. Trump comes down on Omarosa for "changing her tune" about him after he's no longer paying her to say nice things, saying she has…
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We are guinea pigs in a worldwide experiment on microplastics
by ilene - August 14th, 2018 7:31 pm
We are guinea pigs in a worldwide experiment on microplastics
Microplastics in the Mediterranean Sea. By Dirk Wahn/shutterstock.com
Courtesy of John Meeker, University of Michigan
One of the main problems with plastics is that although we may only need them fleetingly – seconds in the case of microbeads in personal care products, or minutes as in plastic grocery bags – they stick around for hundreds of years. Unfortunately, much of this plastic ends up as environmental pollution. We’ve all seen the gruesome images of a sea turtle killed by a plastic bag, or the array of bottle caps, toothbrush fragments, and other plastic items found in the stomach of an albatross carcass. But what about the tiny microplastics that aren’t as readily visible?
A black footed albatross chick with plastics in its stomach lies dead on Midway Atoll in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Midway sits amid a collection of man-made debris called the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Along the paths of Midway, there are piles of feathers with rings of plastic in the middle – remnants of birds that died with the plastic in their guts. Dan Clark/USFWS via AP
Much of the hundreds of millions of tons of plastic waste in our oceans is made up of microplastics. These are defined as plastic beads, fibers or fragments with a diameter of less than five thousand micrometers (μm), equal to one-half centimeter. Nanoplastics are thousands of times tinier, with a diameter of less than 0.1 μm, and are also likely to be widely present. By comparison, a human hair ranges from about 15 to 180 μm across. Some of these microplastics are deliberately engineered like microbeads in a facial scrub. Others result from the break down of larger plastic items.
Stop ocean plastic pollution. Ban the microplastic beads in personal hygiene products like toothpaste and cosmetics. By Supriya07/shutterstock.com
I’m an environmental epidemiologist with a research group that studies exposure to chemicals commonly found in consumer products, including plastics, and…
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Turnaround Tuesday – US Markets Run Up in the Futures Just Because
by phil - August 14th, 2018 8:21 am
Yet another meaningless Monday erased from history.
After all of yesterday's excitement, the Futures have taken us right back to where we finished on Friday, 2,832 on the S&P 500 and 25,300 on the Dow – as if yesterday never happened. I'm not sure it will last as Europe is flat, not up and China was down yet again this morning so there's nothing really to get too excited about and 25,300 is a good shorting line on the Dow Futures (/YM) with tight stops above – if you feel like playing.
We felt like playing yesterday as Gasoline (/RB) dipped down to the $2 line and Oil (/CL) fell to $66 and I said to our Members at 1:48 in our Live Chat Room:
Wow, Oil etc went down hard and fast, good chance to get back in for the bounce off $66 on /CL and $1.99 on /RB (tight stops below).
I know, so complicated, right? How will you ever learn the jargon? Well, I would think our results would motivated you as those Gasoline contracts made a quick $1,000 each at $2.02 (and back to $2.05 this morning for another $1,260 per contract since) while Oil Futures (/CL) blasted back over $68 for a $2,000 per contract gain ($67.50 in yesterday's close was $1,500 per contract – also very nice!
Futures trading is the only kind of day trading I like to do as it's a nice quick way to take advantage of market stupidity without incurring a lot of trading fees and, more importantly, without consuming your attention. As Fundamental Investors, we KNEW $2 was too low for /RB (that did not stop it from hitting $1.98, of course) and we KNEW $66 was too low for oil with 2 weeks until a holiday weekend so it made good sense to take a chance at those levels and notice we waited until AFTER it bottomed – you don't get rich trying to call exact bottoms or tops in the Futures!
As I was saying in last week's webinar,…
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Interview with Cheri Jacobus
by ilene - August 13th, 2018 9:08 pm
Cheri Jacobus talks about the GOP, Russia, the media and taking back Congress.
Interview with Ilene at Phil's Stock World
Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican. She has been a guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. After many years working with the GOP, she has a unique view of the party and politics. Cheri shares her insights on today’s political environment with us.
Ilene: What are the main factors that have transformed the Republican Party into what it is today?
Cheri: Right-wing media and evangelicals softened the GOP, making it quick to sell out to Trump. I witnessed the change in FOX as it morphed from being a fresh, scrappy effort with what was then a needed voice in a sea of liberal media, to a completely dishonest, manipulative, corrupt enterprise both on and off the air. And right-wing evangelicals (not to be confused with legitimate Christians) drowning in Trump-backing hypocrisy stems from ignoring the line between church and state, spouting propaganda from the pulpit.
Ilene: What do you mean by “softened”?
Cheri: Methodically dumbing down, requiring little fact-checking or thoughtful debate, so that the Machiavellian establishment was quick to sell out – no questions asked. It was made easy for them.
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Ilene: It seems to me that Trump supporters and Trump critics live in different worlds. How did this happen?
Cheri. While Trump supporters know about some of Trump’s tweets, they learn about them through the filter of right-wing Trumpian media, and never hear the fact-checking or push-back. Trump supporters live in an information vacuum but don’t know it. They are not on Twitter, by and large (although we know there are millions of fake Trumpkins on Twitter as trolls and bots). The “fix” is having real media be consistent, clear, repetitive and never let up reporting the truth about Trump.
Ilene: What are the Democrats’ odds of winning the House and/or Senate in 2018?
Cheri: Very good, but not the slam dunk many believe, unless Mueller comes down heavy before that. And, given the media blackout of all negative news on Trump in some corners, many voters will not get the full picture. A daily diet of FOX, Trump right-wing radio and disinformation from the pro-Putin Breitbart, Daily Caller and the mysteriously-funded…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site