TGIF – Stop the Week – We Want to Get Off!

Well, you can't say we didn't see this coming.  

On the right is where we closed last Friday, just shy of 26,000 on the Dow, just shy of 2,800 on the S&P, 7,039 on the Nasdaq, 12,573 on the NYSe and 1,550 on the Russell.  It may have seemed like we were recovering but this is why we have to ignore our instincts (bullish or bearish) and just watch the bounce lines according to our 5% Rule™ before making drastic changes to our portfolios.

I had warned about being fooled by the bounces in Friday's Morning Report and on Monday we laid out our game plan for the week and I don't go over them to show how right we were but it's good to reveiw what we said then in retrospect so the next time we tell you what is likely to happen, you have better context for how our predictions play out.  

We went long on Gold (/YG) and Silver (/SI) Futures on Monday and that was BRILLIANT but we were way too early getting bullish on Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (/RB) though, fortunately, we did have a plan to lose "just" $420 at each nickel stop on the way down ($1.65, $1.60 and $1.55) as we played for the eventual turn. 

As it stands now, we're long 4 /RB contracts at $1.55 after losing $420 on the first penny at $1.64 and then $840 (2 contracts) at $1.60 but now 4 contracts at $1.55 seem to be working and we're back to $1.585 with a $1,470 gain and, of course, we are taking 3 off the table, leaving us with just the original one long contract at the much better price of $1.55 while we're up net $210 overall on the closed contracts. 

We were wrong on SLW on earnings, they went $1 lower but we still love them long-term and our warning for the week played out as I said on Monday:

We're still playing the markets very cautiously and very skeptically but we also have PLENTY of (well-hedged) bullish positions and our portfolios seem very well-balanced so we'll just


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  • Wishing Phil and all fellow PSW members a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year 2017! Thanks to all of you for your insights and comments which help make me a better investor every day. Wishing everybody the best of luck for 2017

    Learner

  • In options trading, one must remain flexible with the ability to adjust to take advantage of the unexpected moves in the market. It is like chess - spend most of your time strategizing the next move. A good understanding of options is necessary to change direction and make adjustments as the market moves against you. I have a friend that honed his option skills while a member of Phil's elite membership over a period of two years. With the education acquired, he made over $2 Mil in that period, trading options and following the plays put on by Phil. If making money is your goal, then he is the go-to guy, as he knows option strategies better than anyone, and market timing is also a skill he has mastered.

    1234gel

  • Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.

    Craigsa620

  • TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

    Gel1

  • Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

    Coke

  • I traded with Phil for approximately three years, and consistently averaged 80% returns yearly... some of which was due to my skills as a trader, but much was a direct result of what I learned as a member of Phil's site.... both from Phil, and the many talented traders that hang out there. Phil... if you are reading along... thanks, again for the approximately $ 3 mil I made tagging along with you.... in order to make you feel good for the work you did... I gave the government 50% of it all, so you made your contribution....

    1234Gel

  • Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

    MrMocha

  • Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years. THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS

    Tchayipov

  • Phil, thank you for all the education here. I've gained so much knowledge being a part of PSW. Thanks to the rest of the members as well! I appreciate all of the contributions you make.

    JeffDoc

  • Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

    Josiah

  • I remember that call (to sell gold at $1,850) as well... and the many Buy-Writes that were created on your site during that period... thanks to you, I had an average ROI of close to 70% for over 2 years, averaging 4,000 trades per year. Busy trading, but lots of fun and memorable trades.

    1234gel

  • Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!

    Barfinger

  • From following Phil I have opened up BCS and occasion will strangle some stocks. I will occasionally hedge using an ETF ultra. I have a big take down occasionally but so far I am way ahead of the S&P, and since buying into PSW some years ago by seeing Phil on Seeking Alpha I feel more confident in my abilities. FYI I am a retired entrepreneur formerly in the real estate and insurance businesses.

    Newthugger

  • Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

    Chaffey

  • We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.

    Newthugger

  • Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!

    Coke

  • Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.

    Nramanuja

  • SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.

    Sibe14 (premium)

  • Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you.

    craigsa620

  • Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!

    RevTodd64

  • Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!

    Jfawcett

  • I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.

    Prof

  • Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

    HJ Kobbeman

  • My watch list looks like a grid where Phil's recommendations went UP and everything else went DOWN! It looked something like an ad for Philstockworld. I am half in cash, followed the recommendations (AAPL TASR YHOO) on a 20K portfolio and still up 1% for the day. Thanks!

    Sn0gr00ve

  • Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).

    JJennings

  • Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

    Singapore Steve

  • The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

    Gel1

  • Phil, thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you. I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week. thank you!

    DawnR

  • Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!

    Investwizard

  • Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

    Jordan

Global Auto Industry Collapse Continues As October EU Data Shows No Relief

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The outlook for the global automobile market has been increasingly dire lately, especially after a third quarter that saw sales drop in many major markets across the globe, including China. Now, the latest data from Europe suggests that the difficulties may be nowhere close to over despite optimistic fourth quarter guidance by companies like Volkswagen and Daimler AG. 

Deliveries of new passenger cars were down 7.4% in the EU and the European Free Trade Association in October from the year prior. This adds to a 23% drop that occurred during September according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, and which was so acute it led to the first negative GDP print for Germany since 2015.  

Despite the ongoing sales weakness, which many attribute to one-time events, some analysts – like those at EY Consultancy - still expect the market to turn around in the fourth quarter. They argue that new emissions testing cited by many companies as the reason for disappointing sales, will only have a temporary effect.

At the same time, Citigroup analyst Angus Tweedie thinks the downside is not over for companies like BMW and Daimler AG, according to Bloomberg. In a note titled "The Golden Age Ends With a Crash", Tweedie wrote that "Heading into 2019 we see few remaining avenues of maneuver, and with volume growth slowing in most markets believe the scale of pressures will become obvious." 

Meanwhile, ongoing challenges like the slowdown in China have been exacerbated by trade wars, casting a cloud over the industry. However, one of the main potential threats, tariffs on imports from the EU, has been alleviated for now, as we wrote yesterday. Following the data release, European automakers like Daimler, VM, and BMW were all trading lower between 1% and 2%. 

The new emissions standards (dubbed "WLTP"), a remnant of German automakers' emissions test cheating days, continue to be a cause for profit warnings for companies like Daimler and BMW. The rush to get cars ready for new regulations has put pressure on auto sales this quarter. And while BMW made the deadline, it reportedly couldn't escape pricing pressure from competitors entering the market at the same time.

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Thursday Failure – Warning Lights Flashing on our Market Dashboard

chartWe're still painting the bounce lines red 

As I warned you on Tuesday, there's blood on the streets and we have now picked up 4 red boxes as each index has been taken down a notch this week and, with the Nasdaq (/NQ) failing it's 10% correction AGAIN at 6,870 and the Russell (/RTY) right on the -10% line at 1,495 – will the Dow (/YM) and S&P (/ES) be far behind?  For the Dow, that's a 700-point drop to 24,300 and the Dow (/YM) futures pay $5 per point per contract so I love shorting /YM below the 25,000 line with tight stops above.  

  • Dow 24,300 with a weak bounce at 24,800 and a strong bounce at 25,300
  • S&P 2,640 with a weak bounce at 2,710 and a strong bounce at 2,780
  • Nasdaq 6,870 with a weak bounce at 7,080 and a strong bounce at 7,230
  • Russell 1,485 with a weak bounce at 1,530 and a strong bounce at 1,575

For the S&P (/ES) we're at 2,696 this morning so another 56 point-drop and we're all red on that index too.  On the other hand, if /ES can get…
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Animal Spirits: How to Create the Perfect Fund

 

Picture via Pixabay

Animal Spirits: How to Create the Perfect Fund

Courtesy of 

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss:

$1,000 a month, no strings attached

Universal basic income is ahead of its time

Are quants facing a crisis of confidence?

Hedge fund bloodbath

Survey of the week

Robinhood has to make money somehow

Million dollar neighborhoods

The decline in youth sports

Banks have a lot of data

Listen here:

Recommendations:

Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy

Gridiron Genius

Charts mentioned:





Wobbling World Wednesday – Global Indexes Consolidate for the Next Move Down

Reuters GraphicI think we're heading lower.

Probably about 10% lower and yesterday's 8% drop in oil is a good indicator of how fast the "value" can come out of the markets – or any other asset you think is "stable" these days.  There are still MANY signs of Global Economic Weakness, including Japan's negative GDP, which we noted yesterday.  Even worse, Japan's Central Bank owns $5Tn worth of assets – the entire GDP of the country, including 45% of all Government bonds paying near 0% interest that will quickly become worthless if rates rise.

“The Bank of Japan’s policy is clearly not sustainable. The BOJ would suffer losses if it would have to raise interest rates to, say, two percent,” said Hidenori Suezawa, a fiscal analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities. “Also, in case of emergencies, such as a natural disaster or a war, the BOJ won’t be able to finance government bonds any longer.”

The BOJ has also been a very aggressive buyer of Japanese stocks and is now the largest holder of most of the Nikkei 225 stocks – over 10% on average.   This buying spree pushed the Nikkei up from 16,000 when Abe and Koroda unleashed this mad shceme in order to reverse that 20% correction.

Well, what if the 20% correction was correct and Japanese stocks, in an aging population with Government debts that exceed 250% of their GDP, are really only worth Nikke 16,000.  That means that, at 24,000, 33% of the money the BOJ spent to prop up the market was wasted and that's very likely the case as the BOJ shouldn't have to be a buyer and their actions created a false sense of demand for Japanese stocks and artificially raised the prices and those prices, in turn, encouraged other Global markets to move higher and now the whole World is a good 10% (still) too expensive but Japan has barely corrected 10% and easily has another 10% to go (19,500) before anything like real buyers begin to show up.

Image result for japan bubble 2018It's not even possible for the BOJ to
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Wall Street Expects S&P To Peak At 3,056; Will Rotate Into Bonds When Yield Hits 3.7%

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

One day after Bank of America released its latest, and quite bearish Credit Investor Survey, on Tuesday, the bank has published its latest, and far broader, Fund Managers Survey (FMS) which polled a total of 225 panellists with $641bn AUM during the period of November 2-8. According to the survey administrator, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett, there were three key takeaways:

  • Investors forecast the S&P500 to peak at 3056 (give or take) and are waiting for the 10-Year yield to reach 3.7% before rotating from stocks into bonds
  • Cash levels fell in Nov… To BofA this suggests that positioning is not bearish enough for Big Low (which will likely take place in Q2 2019 at the earliest)
  • Perhaps most notable is that the allocation to tech plunged to the lowest since Feb'09 even though investors still see "Long FANG-BAT" as the most crowded trade; Meanwhile, investors are long US$ & not yet long global recession

Some more detailed observations together with charts:

On when the market finally tops, investors think the S&P 500 will peak at 3056 (a weighted average of the responses) suggesting 12% upside from today's level, even though – like the market – this level appears to be rolling over …

…but as BofA notes, 1 in 3 FMS investors (30%) now think US stocks have already peaked, double last month's reading (16%). This likely also means that there are quite a few who see the S&P rising as high as 3500 or more.

Next, when looking at the big risk cited by credit investors, namely rising rates, Wall Street investors said they don't expect a rotation from equities to bonds until 3.7% on the 10-year Treasury (also the averaged weighted response); This is about 20bp higher than the response back in April 18.

Contrary to reports of asset liquidations, survey respondents said that their cash level actually fell to 4.7% from 5.1% (just above the avg of the past 10 years of 4.5%) and hovering just above neutral even as investors reportedly stay bearish. To BofA this means that the Cash Rule has been in…
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Zero Hedge

Futures Falls On Chip Carnage As World Await Brexit Verdict

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Stocks in Europe faded early gains and S&P futures fell after a mixed session in Asia as chip stocks were taken to the woodshed on poor guidance from Nvidia and Applied Materials sparked fears that the chip bull run is over, while investors wondered whether China and America can de-escalate their trade war after mixed signals by US officials just days before the G-20 summit.

The euro failed to rebound while the sterling halted its biggest drop in 2 years after some of the most dram...



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Phil's Favorites

Global Auto Industry Collapse Continues As October EU Data Shows No Relief

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The outlook for the global automobile market has been increasingly dire lately, especially after a third quarter that saw sales drop in many major markets across the globe, including China. Now, the latest data from Europe suggests that the difficulties may be nowhere close to over despite optimistic fourth quarter guidance by companies like Volkswagen and Daimler AG. 

Deliveries of new passenger cars were down 7.4% in the EU and the European Free Trade Association in October from the year prior. This adds to a 23% drop that occurred during September according to data from the European Automobile Manufacture...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs; Would Love This To Be A Double Top!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold, Silver, and the precious metals industry have a pretty simple relationship with the U.S. Dollar: They perform better when the Dollar is weakening… and they tend to struggle when the Dollar is strengthening.

One of our favorite ratios to monitor for Gold Bugs is the U.S. Dollar/Gold ratio. It tells us when the Dollar is weakening or heading lower (which is good for gold) or when it is strengthening or heading higher (bad for gold).

Looking at the Dollar/Gold chart below, we can see that the ratio climbed higher from late 2011 to early 2016. This wreaked havoc on Gold prices. Since peaking in early 2016, the ratio has formed a broad declining channel (pink shaded area). Each swing lower has provided a tailwind for Gold prices, while each counter-swing higher has been a headwind.

in ...



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Insider Scoop

Macy's Receives Mixed Analyst Reaction After Q3 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related M Big Box Bonanza: Walmart Beats Most Estimates, But Brexit Could Steal Attention Mid-A...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlik...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>