Trumpless Tuesday – Small Cap Stocks Erase ALL the Gains of the Trump Error

by - December 18th, 2018 8:22 am

A World without Trump!

That was the subject of the opening sketch on Saturday Night Live this weekend which, like "It's a Wonderful Life" showed Donald Trump how much better off the World would have been if only he had not been President.  The chart on the right shows that small caps (IWM) have already given up ALL of the Trump error gains and the other indexes are not too far behind.  As Trump (Baldwin) says in the sketch "It's terrible, everything is falling apart" and that's certainly true of the stock market, which isn't waiting for Trump to be handcuffed and forcibly removed from the White House to roll back the rally that's put the country $2.5Tn further into debt in just two years.  

Maybe the markets are worried about the debt, maybe they are worried about President Pelosi (Pence is looking like he'll be out as well) or the looming Government Shutdown or maybe the economy isn't quite as good as Team Trump has been claiming or maybe investors are finally realizing what I've been saying all year:  That earnings have been the result of a massive tax-cut sugar-high that cannot be repeated (and shouldn't have happened in the first place) and that there is no way that most companies will live up to the valuations that have been wrongfully extrapolated based on a one-time event.  

Image result for extrapolating cartoon

tax reformAccording to FactSet, almost 50% of the S&P 500s earnings growth has been from Trump Tax Breaks and no, they have not used that money to create more jobs (Trump has created far less jobs than any two Obama years) nor have they used the money to open new factories but they have bought back over $1Tn of their own stock – at record-high prices – isn't that clever?  

While $1Tn may seem like a lot of money, it's "only" about 2.5% of the US Market's $40Tn market cap though it does account for more than 1/2 of all inflows into the market in 2018 so, whenever you sell a stock, there's a 50/50 chance you are selling it back to the company!

Lowering the share count by 2.5%…
continue reading

Posted in Appears on main page | Join Member's Chat - No Comments Here »





  • Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.

    rj_jarboe

  • Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!

    Yodi

  • I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.

    Aquila

  • Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.

    Coke

  • Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

    Neverworkagain

  • I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.

    Prof

  • Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

    Ocelli7

  • Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!

    Iflantheman

  • From following Phil I have opened up BCS and occasion will strangle some stocks. I will occasionally hedge using an ETF ultra. I have a big take down occasionally but so far I am way ahead of the S&P, and since buying into PSW some years ago by seeing Phil on Seeking Alpha I feel more confident in my abilities. FYI I am a retired entrepreneur formerly in the real estate and insurance businesses.

    Newthugger

  • This is my first month here. Today was a money train with futures. I gained 7500 USD with KC, RB, CL, NG. I took RB almost every direction up and down. And I only used 1 contract or maximum 2. Thank you. I think it was a good investment to subscribe…

    Kgabor

  • Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

    mSquare

  • Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

    OnWisconsin

  • Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!

    Louis631

  • Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.

    Smasher

  • Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

    JBaker

  • I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?

    Bill Hoffman

  • Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.

    Jomptien

  • Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…

    MrMocha

  • Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

    Newthugger

  • Hey Phil -- I want to thank you every chance I get for helping me to grow my previous portfolio to being profitable enough to pay off some debts my family had and left me with $1,000 left to use in the markets. You should know that your premium membership is amazing on many levels, You and your readers offer a ton of economic and statistical analysis that I was able to use in my clerical level job in finance. It's a shame that someone as talented and honest as you is not on television each night providing a true service to the investing public and not the clowns and hucksters that are talking up their books to dump on retail investors. Sorry for the long post. I had to say something to you that I never thought I would have the opportunity to. You helped put my family in an almost debt-free life through the stock and option plays that I made during my time as a customer of your service and that has made us very happy. You are a good man and I wish you and your family many years of joy and happiness. I wish I could do ads for you!

    DaveJ

  • Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

    Gel1

  • I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

    David

  • Phil – I think I finally figured out your "crystal ball" time frame. You're about 5-14 days AHEAD of what the market is going to do. It's taken me a long time to realize this, but boy it's been profitable. I go in when you recommend something at about 25% allocation, and then add to it each day it "goes the wrong way" Then BOOM, one day it's all good…. The long put list was literally exact in it's timing.

    Burrben

  • Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

    Tchayipov

  • Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

    Steve

  • A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.

    ZKatkin

  • Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).

    JJennings

  • Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

    Ether

  • You may wonder if anyone gets anything out of you seminars (or may not wonder). Anyway, I almost never day trade because of my job. Today, I was home due to the snow and since I was behind by 2 weeks on watching your recorded seminars I though I would watch one of them. I set up my pivot point charts in TOS to match the ones in your seminar and made the QQQ trade from this morning. I only bought 5 puts. While I watched the seminar, I would pause then switch back and forth and watch the live QQQ chart. I ended up stopping out for a $170 gain, but it was pretty cool to have the dip and recovery at the same time I was learning the art of stopping out when a pivot line was taken out.

    rj_jarboe

  • Phil/ Thanks to your obsessive bearish anxiety over the last few weeks, I made money on the long side this month, phased gradually to bearish, came in net short today and managed to make money both long and short all week, ending today [and each day this week] in the green. I don't know how you do it, but thank you.

    Zeroxzero

Next Year

by - December 18th, 2018 1:19 am

 

Next Year

Courtesy of 

Ben Graham once said, “Nearly everyone interested in common stocks wants to be told by someone else what he thinks the market is going to do. The demand being there, it must be supplied.”

Over the weekend, Barron’s obliged.

As is always the case, strategists see stocks going higher next year, with the average price target at 2974, which is 17% above where the S&P 500 closed on Monday. That would be the highest year-end price target (percent gain, we won’t know until December 31) since 2009, when the average strategist expected an 18% gain.

Stocks were positive 72% of the time over the last 50 years, so calling for higher prices is the rational default setting when you think about the power of career risk. It also makes sense to stay close to the herd. If you miss a bear market, well, so will everybody else.

I compiled year-end price targets going back to 2005 (2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2008. 2007. 2006. 2005) and found that out of the 153 price targets, only six called for lower prices. The average forecast was a 9% gain which, not surprisingly, is right around the average annual return. It’s funny, not ha-ha funny, but funny to see the average return call for an average return that is almost never average.

The chart below shows the expectations versus reality.

Very few predictions age well, especially those about the stock market. In December 2007, Barron’s wrote “the dozen seers we’ve surveyed all have penciled in higher stock prices in 2008…On average, the group sees the Standard & Poor’s 500 at 1,640.” It closed at 903. The market makes a mockery of those that try on future-tinted glasses.

The chart below shows the difference between the average annual forecast and what actually happened. The average miss is 10.7% over the past 13 years

Why do we see these forecasts year after year? Because people want to be told what the future holds. Demand will always be supplied.

Posted in Appears on main page, Immediately available to public, Phil's Favorites | No Comments »





Why the Texas ruling on Obamacare is on shaky legal ground

by - December 17th, 2018 2:32 pm

 

Why the Texas ruling on Obamacare is on shaky legal ground

File 20181216 185268 11x860f.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Austin, Texas contractor Mike Hewitt, who depends on insurance provided by the Affordable Care Act. A Texas judge ruled Dec. 14, 2018 that the law is unconstitutional. Eric Gay/AP Photo

Courtesy of Simon F. Haeder, West Virginia University and Valarie Blake, West Virginia University

A Texas judge has ruled that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional. For now, his decision has no immediate effect except to toss another fire bomb at a law that has helped 20-plus million people gain insurance and expanded insurance for almost all Americans by such things as requiring insurers to cover pre-existing conditions.

Based on our expertise as health policy scholars, we argue that the ACA is well-settled law by now. This ruling will likely not undo the law. It does, however, add more uncertainty to the ACA while also showing how much Republicans continue to be willing to fight to destroy the law.

How did we get to the Texas verdict?

Republicans in Congress spent much of 2017 seeking to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. After repeated failed attempts, they celebrated a victory with the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. The tax bill included the repeal of the ACA’s individual shared responsibility penalty, or the penalty imposed on individuals who fail to purchase qualified insurance coverage.

Health policy experts agreed that this would destabilize the individual insurance market without destroying the ACA. And indeed, enrollment in the ACA insurance marketplaces has been decidedly lower this year. Yet, millions of Americans continue to enroll, and a number of states are moving toward expanding Medicaid.

Emboldened by the legislative success of GOP tax reform, however, 20 states, led by Texas and Wisconsin, renewed their efforts to have the ACA declared unconstitutional.

They got every wish. Texas Judge Reed O’Connor struck down the Affordable Care Act as unconstitutional in its entirety.

Politics heavily shaped this case. Republican-led states sought a friendly judge in a Texas district court to yet again challenge the constitutionality of the ACA. And…
continue reading

Posted in Appears on main page, Immediately available to public, Phil's Favorites | No Comments »





Monday Market Miracles – Do You Believe in the Fed? GDP? Santa Rallies?

by - December 17th, 2018 7:41 am

What's it going to take to stop the bleeding?

NOW we have a bit of a correction going on as the S&P 500 closes the week at 2,600, more than 10% off the 2,940 high it posted in September, when Shanghai stocks were already down 20% and we were ignoring them and I said:

When people tell you that what happens to the second largest economy in the World doesn't effect the largest economy in the World, those people are idiots and you should never listen to anything they say to you – ever again.  Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan, for his part, is doing his best to minimize the concerns of retail investors so he can keep dumping stocks on them:

"If you look at tariffs on $200 billion (worth of Chinese goods), and this may all get passed on to American consumers and they have to pay another $20 billion (on Chinese imports), it's a $20 trillion economy, so the actual economic effect is not dramatic," Dimon said.

"We can add tariffs to more things and the Chinese can retaliate in other ways and I don't think all that's good. It's not a devastating thing, it's not a war, it's a trade skirmish that can have negative economic effects."

Dimon is not going to say what happens in China has no effect but he's mimizing the impact and misleading traders by using the 10% figure that costs $20Bn but that 10% tariff escalates to 25% at the end of the year ($50Bn) and then Trump plans to double the number of goods that are taxed ($100Bn) so a smart reporter

…
continue reading

Posted in Appears on main page, Immediately available to public | Join Member's Chat - 148 Comments Here »





Did Dow Theory just trigger an important sell signal?

by - December 16th, 2018 8:01 pm

 

Did Dow Theory just trigger an important sell signal?

Courtesy of 

You know how skeptical I am of market maxims and rules of thumb and pattern recognition in general…

At best, these “signals” work sometimes and there are too many variables that are exogenous to the signal – so that a practitioner cannot know when it’s about to work and when it’s not. They can take a bow in hindsight on a signal foreseen but if things don’t play out, no one really remembers anyway – so it’s kind of like a free call option on pundithood.

HOWEVER…

I still think there is value in understanding the concepts behind what large segments of the crowd are looking at / watching / discussing. Can’t be a skeptic based on no information and have your skepticism taken seriously.

Which brings me to Dow Theory. I don’t believe in it, but I’m not an expert on how it’s meant to be used and interpreted. Two friends of mine have written it up and I’m reading both takes. Directing you to JC Parets and Larry McDonald below, make your own decision about what any of this might mean:

Dow Theory is something that gets thrown around a lot, usually irresponsibly. What I mean is, that there is a lot more to Dow Theory that what you normally hear about on the TV or read about on the Internets. Usually, conversations about Dow Theory revolve around the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average either confirming or not confirming each other’s trends. This is indeed part of Dow Theory, but not even in my top 5 most important Dow Theory Tenets. There are other aspects of Dow Theory that we need to pay attention to even more.

Keep reading:

Everything About Dow Theory (All Star Charts)

How does one spot the end of a great bull market and the birth of a bear’s mauling? We can start with the Dow Theory.

The Dow theory asserts that major market trends are composed of

…
continue reading

Posted in Appears on main page, Chart School, Immediately available to public, Phil's Favorites | No Comments »





Weekend Reading: Did The Grinch Steal Christmas?

by - December 14th, 2018 4:25 pm

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice

On Tuesday, we put on a small S&P 500 trading position for an oversold bounce. At first, it didn’t work and we were almost stopped out, but a late day rally kept us in the position.

Wednesday was a different picture as stocks rocketed out of the gate on more “trade talk” news with China, but that rally faded as well heading into late day as the owner of the “National Enquirer” was granted immunity in exchange for details on another Trump-related “hush money” payment.

Yesterday, the markets struggled out of the gate as economic data pointed to slowing rates of inflationary pressure and economic growth, fell into negative territory, and then ended the day flat.

This morning stocks opened down as concerns of global economic weakness rose from China.

So far, the “Santa Rally” has failed to appear and traders are beginning to wonder if they are on the “Naughty List” this year? With all of the rhetoric over trade, White House shenanigans, and weak economic data, it certainly would seem to be the case.

But, it may actually be more of the “Grinch (aka The Fed) That Stole Christmas” this year.

While the Fed’s rate hikes do indeed raise borrowing costs and slow economic growth, it is the extraction of liquidity from the markets which is most important. As shown in the chart below, the Fed is now reducing their flows by $50 billion each month. This is in direct contrast to the billions they were injecting previously which corresponds with the markets decade-long bull market despite weak revenue growth due to a sluggish economic expansion.

But it is no longer just the Fed. On Thursday, the European Central Bank made two important announcements.

  1. They will stop adding to its stock of government and corporate bonds at the end of December, and;

  2. They are seeing signs of weaker inflation and economic growth.

In other words, as world markets are beginning to struggle as the driver of the decade-long bull market is being removed.

But yet, despite the market turmoil this year, which certainly got investors attention, the debate has…
continue reading

Posted in Appears on main page, Immediately available to public, Phil's Favorites | No Comments »





« Previous Entries


 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Why A Wednesday Rate Hike Suddenly Looks Very Iffy

December 18th, 2018 6:49 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On Monday morning, in previewing Wednesday's FOMC decision, UBS fixed income specialist Dan Noorian while explaining that any substantial deviation from the Fed's dot plot could have dramatic consequences for the fixed income market, said that at least one aspect of the upcoming announcement is ironclad: "no one seriously expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday."

And yet, less than 24 hours later and another 500 Dow points lower, that is suddenly looking pr...



more from Tyler

Biotech

China's win-at-all-costs approach suggests it will follow its own dangerous path in biomedicine

December 18th, 2018 1:40 am

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

China's win-at-all-costs approach suggests it will follow its own dangerous path in biomedicine

Megacity Shenzhen, as seen from Hong Kong, is a center for Chinese finance and tech. AP Photo/Kin Cheung

Courtesy of Hallam Stevens, Nanyang Technological University

The world was shocked by ...



more from Biotech

Phil's Favorites

China's win-at-all-costs approach suggests it will follow its own dangerous path in biomedicine

December 18th, 2018 1:38 am

 

China's win-at-all-costs approach suggests it will follow its own dangerous path in biomedicine

Megacity Shenzhen, as seen from Hong Kong, is a center for Chinese finance and tech. AP Photo/Kin Cheung

Courtesy of Hallam Stevens, Nanyang Technological University

The world was shocked by Chinese scientist He Jiankui’s recent claim that he’d brough...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the NYSE Composite Signaling Difficult Times Ahead?

December 17th, 2018 3:02 pm

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The NYSE Composite (NYA) is testing the bottom of its 12-month trading range this month. In fact, it’s breaking down and out of it… it’s sink or swim time.

Will this be a quick undercut and reversal? Or the start of a deeper correction/bear market? Bulls need to reverse this right now, or it could be a long winter.

Looking at the chart below, we can see that the NYSE composite formed bearish hanging man patterns at (1) multiple times over the past two decades. The ones highlighted were followed by an average 25% decline.

Another hanging man candlestick was formed back in February at (2). This lead to the initial stock market correction early this year. The broad stock index developed a trading range thereafter (blue sh...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 16, 2018

December 17th, 2018 4:25 am

Courtesy of Blain.

A significant selloff Friday had bears continuing to enjoy December and calls for the bulls for the Federal Reserve to save them.  It’s been a very long time since bears have had the upper hand for such an extended period.  Volatility continues to be very high and the charts continue to say “remain in safety”.  The Russell 2000 – the laggard of 2018 – broke a yearly low set in February and the S&P 500 broke October lows to create a “lower low”.

Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist with Voya Investment Management, said that disappointing economic data out of China was the biggest driver of Friday’s losses. “The Chinese data was a dirt sandwich, not because it showed deceleration in the Chinese economy, but because it’s showing...



more from Chart School

Insider Scoop

40 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session

December 16th, 2018 11:00 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Diffusion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: DFFN) shares rose 65.1 percent to $4.7225 after the US Patent Office awarded the company exclusive rights for the use of its TSC drug in conjunction with tPA for stroke treatment.
  • Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SGYP) climbed 34.2 percent to $0.1073 after Health Canada accepted Cipher Pharmaceuticals' new drug submission for PLECANATIDE.
  • Fidelity Southern Corporation (NASDAQ: LION) jumped 22.3 percent to ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Crypto Bull Tom Lee: Bitcoin's 'Fair Value' Closer To $15,000, But He's Sick Of People Asking About It

December 14th, 2018 2:04 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Listening to the crypto bulls of yesteryear continue to defend their case for new new all-time highs, despite a growing mountain of evidence to suggest that last year's rally was spurred by the blind greed of gullible marginal buyers (not to mention outright manipulation), one can't help but feel a twinge of pity for Mike Novogratz and Wall Street's original crypto uber-bull, Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

Lee achieved rock star status thanks to ...



more from Bitcoin

Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

December 11th, 2018 9:57 pm

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

...

more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

December 6th, 2018 9:41 am

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

October 10th, 2018 11:58 am

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



more from ValueWalk

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

September 12th, 2017 9:29 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

March 7th, 2017 4:51 pm

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions




About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>