I was off having a nice time this week and mostly when I bothered to tune in to the news or CNBC I was only thinking, gee I’m glad I’m missing this!
When I left we were worried about Kim Jong Il but I’ve been passing by TV’s tuned to giant fire balls that have nothing to do with him and the fear factor (now somewhat justified) is driving oil to record levels, likely to be followed by gold and other metals.
Asia continues to plunge, dropping another point or two today while Europe looks weak. We are back in the sort of situation we had back in mid-June where we would rather see a huge drop to a real bottom than another weak recovery. This time the global situation is obviously far worse and we are still way above Jun 14 lows: Dow 10,698, S&P 1,219, NYSE 7,708.
The Nasdaq beat its June low of 2,065 yesterday and should give us the first turn signal (if it does at all) but the SOX continue on an uninterrupted road to hell that has as much chance of accelerating down as it does of turning up. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24sox
Putting additional topspin on the Nasdaq is news that the California District Attorney (overseeing Silicon Valley) is launching a task force to investigate options backdating. This is starting to look like something almost everyone was doing, with over 50 companies now under investigation so get ready for more headlines there. Also bad for tech is a price-fixing probe aimed at chip makers.
The key for watching this market is going to be how middling earnings are received. GE was pretty exactly in line so we will see how they get treated today. Builders will take yet another hit (props to the Prof) as DHI lowers guidance yet again, taking a 10% hit overnight.
I am baffled by the spotty performance of the oil patch, especially the drillers as oil prices continue to climb. Apparently traders think this spike is temporary and, of course, $4 gas may finally lead to demand destruction but I want to see how oil handles $80 before I bet against that sector. Since the first $75 oil spike on 4/24 most of the oil patch has traded down with drillers like PTEN down 20%. APC has been hammered even though their purchase of KMG…
As a kid, I wished the world favored the smart. I was a smart kid, and it seemed like the world - at least my world - was dominated by bullies and airheads. Might made right, just like in the times of old. My high IQ and love of learning were no match for popular dolts, so a portion of my childhood was wasted just trying to disappear into the background.
Unknown to me at the time, much of the adult world operated the same way. It didn't take a ...
I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).
Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.
Note from dshort: With yesterday's release of the Consumer Price Index for October, I've updated Real Retail Sales for October.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:
Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments)
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Investors in U.S. equities seem to have embraced a new market paradigm in which upside spikes come more swiftly than the downside selloffs. Remember when it used to be the other way around? When fear was stronger than greed? The market is consolidating its gains off the early-October V-bottom reversal, and no one seems to be in any hurry to unload shares this time around, with the holidays rapidly approaching and all. After all, there are bright blue skies directly overhead giving hope and respite from the early freeze blanketing the country.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer...
If you would have supposed that Ukraine had enough problems to make banning bitcoins a backburner issue, you'd have been wrong. The rationale, "to protect consumers' rights" makes little to no sense... The other one, "to keep money in the country" makes more sense.
A four-year low for the spot price of gold has had a devastating impact on Yamana Gold (Ticker: AUY), with shares in the name down at the lowest price in six years. Some option traders were especially keen to sell premium and appear to see few signs of a lasting rebound within the next five months. The price of gold suffered again Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and stock prices advanced. The post price of gold fell to $1145 adding further pain to share prices of gold miners. Shares in Yamana Gold tumbled to $3.62 and the lowest price since 2008 as call option sellers used the April expiration contract to write premium at the $5.00 strike. That strike is now 38% above the price of the stock. Premium writers took in around 16-cents per contract o...
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Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely. From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.
First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices. Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment. Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer. For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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