I was off having a nice time this week and mostly when I bothered to tune in to the news or CNBC I was only thinking, gee I’m glad I’m missing this!
When I left we were worried about Kim Jong Il but I’ve been passing by TV’s tuned to giant fire balls that have nothing to do with him and the fear factor (now somewhat justified) is driving oil to record levels, likely to be followed by gold and other metals.
Asia continues to plunge, dropping another point or two today while Europe looks weak. We are back in the sort of situation we had back in mid-June where we would rather see a huge drop to a real bottom than another weak recovery. This time the global situation is obviously far worse and we are still way above Jun 14 lows: Dow 10,698, S&P 1,219, NYSE 7,708.
The Nasdaq beat its June low of 2,065 yesterday and should give us the first turn signal (if it does at all) but the SOX continue on an uninterrupted road to hell that has as much chance of accelerating down as it does of turning up. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24sox
Putting additional topspin on the Nasdaq is news that the California District Attorney (overseeing Silicon Valley) is launching a task force to investigate options backdating. This is starting to look like something almost everyone was doing, with over 50 companies now under investigation so get ready for more headlines there. Also bad for tech is a price-fixing probe aimed at chip makers.
The key for watching this market is going to be how middling earnings are received. GE was pretty exactly in line so we will see how they get treated today. Builders will take yet another hit (props to the Prof) as DHI lowers guidance yet again, taking a 10% hit overnight.
I am baffled by the spotty performance of the oil patch, especially the drillers as oil prices continue to climb. Apparently traders think this spike is temporary and, of course, $4 gas may finally lead to demand destruction but I want to see how oil handles $80 before I bet against that sector. Since the first $75 oil spike on 4/24 most of the oil patch has traded down with drillers like PTEN down 20%. APC has been hammered even though their purchase of KMG…
At the trough of the recent correction, which was underscored by a brief but sharp -1,100 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow had temporarily corrected by -16.2% from its peak in May, earlier this year. Whether we retest or break below the 15,370 level again is debatable, but with the Dow almost reaching “bear market” (-20%) territory, it begs the question of whether the U.S. has caught a recessionary flu from the ill international markets’ colds?...
We'll await the details which we imagine will suggest that, as was the case in Tianjin, many more tonnes of something terribly toxic were stored than is allowed under China's regulatory regime which apparently only applies to those who are not somehow connected to the Politb...
Last week was a heck of a week in the global markets.
On Monday, it looked like the world was ending, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than 1,000 points and closing down nearly 600. Tuesday saw more carnage. By mid-week, however, stocks were ripping higher again. And by Friday, they actually closed up for the week.
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We live in a highly correlated world when it comes to stock market trends!
Last week as the Dow was falling 1,000 points a week ago today, the Power of the Pattern reflected that many of the key markets around the world were hitting 4-year rising channel support at the same time.
After all the volatility during the week, Friday's action was a little reprieve. Markets sit a point where shorts will fancy their chances, although further upside should not be viewed as surprising given the level of volatility markets experienced last week. If there is an indication bears are going to come back with a vengeance, it's that buying volume has been well down on prior selling.
The Nasdaq finished on former trading range support, turned resistance. Watch for a short squeeze from this level, up to the 200-day MA.
The Nasdaq 100 may have given an indication of what to expect on Monday as it started to edge more into t...
The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...
With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.
Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering
Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...
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Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).
Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself.
Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene
The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below.
Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets)
Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies)
Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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