Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for 2006

Weekend Reading – Unfinished

Note to members:

As an experiment, I will be going more into detail as to my thought process based on the "Give a fish – Teach to fish" philosophy as my goal here is to build a robust community of sharp traders who can help each other spot market opportunities.

That means that I will have a lot of maybes here and things I am watching develop so always feel free to ask me later if I still like a trade or if things are developing the way I want.  On the big site, I couldn’t do stuff like that because I would get accused of being "wishy washy" or whatever but reality is that I watch things for days, weeks, months… years sometimes before I think it’s actually the right moment for a trade (see "The Man Who Planted Trees").

If this confuses more people than it helps I’ll reconsider, so let me know!

Thanks,

- Phil

==========================================================

Great article by Shlomo Greenberg in Seeking Alpha on CHKP!  I’m very sorry I missed this one as they were a hell of a bargain in August at $17.  At the moment, I have to agree with C, who initiated them at neutral on Friday as the company took a sharp turn off  a 33% gain and is more likely to give up 1/3 of that gian, to $20 before consolidating for another move up.

I like the April $20 puts for .45 as a conrarian play (but not if the stock or the broad market is moving up) and I think we should keep our eye open for maybe $1.20 or less as a nice entry (10%) on the April $22.50s but, with 7,333 open contracts already, I would be selling way before we get to April!  If the stock moves up quickly, they might make a fun spread with the Jan $22.50s, which can be sold for .55.

So the move is to open a small position in the April $20 puts in anticipation of protecting the $22.50s when they get cheap.  With a small entry on the puts, if it gets away from us, we don’t care (well, we always care a little) but if the stock drops and gives us a shot at the $22.50s for a buck we can DD on the $20 puts (perhaps a .70 average entry) giving us a cheap…
continue reading





Weekly Wrap-Up

Well it’s been a crazy week! 

Getting the new site up and running was harder than I thought but we are in very good shape now and got off to a real bang with a huge week for picks.

Luckily we got the macro picture right for the most part and that guided us through a scary early part of the week.  My suggestion that we just let the US dollar burn (inflate) to fuel the market rally was my most controversial article since "Inflation Nation" article earlier in the month – I guess people really don’t like inflation…

Still I was confident enough in our heroic team of Super Banker and Chair Man (of the Fed) as they headed off to China to do nothing (which is just what the markets wanted) other than maintain the status quo (we buy stuff – they buy dollars) and put on a show for the international press corp!

We wisely took some Flight Insurance before departing and our insurance picks did just what they were supposed to do, they went up when the rest of the market stalled early in the week.  Our stock of the year selection, BRK.A in fact, gained $5,700 since Sunday’s mention while junior selection BRK.B added 6.7% for the week!

Monday I said "There is almost no point trading today" and there wasn’t - but we did get some nice entries on calls as we kept the faith!  We had a flawed forecast from Forrester that scared people out of tech.  My premise on Monday that 213K open oil contracts were far too many played out at the end of the week (down to 101K at yesterday’s close) but crude finished up for the week anyway.

Tuesday I predicted a "gauntlet" of economic news and recommended "patience Daniel-san."  But perhaps we should have given more weight to the brewing IRS crackdown on options shenanigansWe dismissed Tuesday’s quick dip as an air pocket – attempting to force us to eject so the markets could take off without us and we did not buy it!  The Manufacturer’s report was our confirmation that things looked better than they seemed.

We started Wednesday off checking our calculations and determined we were indeed …
continue reading





Inside Scoop on the Apple IPhone and Other Patents!

The IPhone is coming, the IPhone is coming, the IPhone is coming!  …On Monday???

  ipod phone 

Well, according to Gizmodo who, I am certain, are just looking for publicity.  This is starting to remind me of when Dean Kamen told us that "IT" would revolutionize transportation, reshape cities, resolve the energy crisis etc. and everyone speculated on everything "IT" could possibly be, from properly recounting the Florida ballots to cold fusion but, in the end, it turned out to be a scooter that very rich people can play polo on!

While I don’t think the IPhone will turn out to be a Segway-sized disappointment, I’m very concerned that I won’t be able to play polo on it and, with expectations running as high as they are it had better at least cure cancer!

One cool thing that is in the works from Apple is a patent they filed earlier in the year to embed "microscopic image sensors" in an LCD screen, effecively turning your monitor or, more importantly, your phone’s screen, into a camera – allowing for true face-to-face communications!

Apple Notebook with Dock

And have you ever wondered why Apple insists on keeping that huge amount of space at the bottom half of their laptops?  Well here’s the embedded docking station they filed a patent on!

Now if that were a cell-capable IPod you could get web access anywhere in the world….  Interesting! 

According to Kevin Rose, of Digg, the IPhone will have the following features:

  • January launch on "all" providers, both CDMA and GSM
  • Extremely small form factor
  • Two battery design (with single charger) — one for playing music, the other for phone functions
  • Flash memory: 4GB for $249, 8GB for $449
  • "Slide-out keyboard"
  • Possibly touchscreen

Apparently the Apple guys are not up on the KISS rule of product design but we’ll see how this all meshes together.  Surely the fear of Apple has been holding down Motorola, who have already shifted their marketing focus to the lower end, ceding the high ground to a product that doesn’t exist yet from their former (or maybe still)
continue reading





Friday Already?

This is a terrible time for a weekend!

We finally got the party started, on Monday we strapped in for a rough ride, on Tuesday I had to tell the kids to calm down and wait for the launch while that nasty Fed went away, we ejected the whiners, we calculated our new trajectory (now that we had removed the excess mass), rolled our problems into next month, and yesterday, we fired up the engines and boldly set off where no market had gone before!

Who could have predicted that?  Oh yeah, I did (pat, pat).

So we should end the week with a bang (hopefully not the bad kind!) as the markets have slingshotted into orbit and are heading straight to the moon!  Inflation remains very tame with the CPI unchanged from last month but down to 2.6% for the year from a 2.9% peak in August.

If we can just ignore keep ignoring our amazing deficit for another month, we may safely enter a much higher orbit with our sites firmly on the 15,000 level for next year.  This image sums up my premise for the week quite nicely:

 

=================================

Private Note: By the way, I forget what day it was but I finally told Tom the Trader he was no longer welcome as I found his ridiculous panic mongering to be detrimental during what I considered to be a mild pullback.  I hope you guys don’t mind as he is only the second person I have ever done that to (the first was AA man, for profanity and general idiocy). 

While I value contrary opinions, having some guy come on and BS about how right he is (absolutely untrue if you check his record) and then telling you to buy puts on everything and pointing to every little downward wiggle as more reason to bail was just too much for me to allow as I do feel some responsibility to all the newbies who read us and take that sort of thing seriously….

==================================

Well Asia seems happy about it with pretty strong gains across the board as Japan is having a “soft landing” of their own and India picked up another 127 points as the Hang Seng seems determined to leave them all in the dust.

You can tell we’re in a huge rally when the big web sites slow down…
continue reading





UNFINISHED! Yes Virginia, there is a Valero Rule

VLO has certainly take a turn for the worse of late, currently trading at exactly 0% higher than it was last Dec 14th.

Yet fellow Group members XOM, CVX and COP are up around 30% over that time with the vast majority of that gain coming since October 1st.

Looking at our partial group chart, we can see what a fantastic leading indicator Valero was on the way to the bottom in February:

  • It turned nicely and gave us a great heads up to go long on 2/16
  • It then gave us a perfect top signal on 4/25
  • Another good bottom as it led the way on 6/21
  • A clear double top as it gapped down on 8/10
  • Followed MUCH later by the rest of the goup who all bottomed in late October.

While Valero clearly made a weak Fibonnaci 33% retracement of the 45% rule (it was up 25% on 8/2, down 15% on 9/25, the majors have gone hog wild during the stock rally.

Why?





Thrilling Thursday Wrap-Up

Whoo-hoo!  What a day!

First of all – welcome to my new site!  I’m really happy to be here and I hope you will be too.  I’m going to lay out some ground rules, which I will make up as I go along and change as I see fit but at least we can get started.

  1. Never talk about stock club!  This is for us, these trades are for us, some of these trades will not work with too many people in them so sharing is not caring (for the other members).
  2. You will always hear it here first!  From this moment forward – all posts start here.  I am going to experiment with posting unfinished posts here and you guys need to let me know if you like it or hate it but I am done with a lot of stuff hours before you see it on the main site so I thought it might help.
  3. Participate!  This is a dictatorial democracy – that means I always want to hear what you have to say before I do whatever I want.  There are no dumb questions, only dumb people (wait, scratch that – reverse it, thanks).
  4. Have Fun!  I’m going to have fun so you may as well to.  If there is anything I can do to make this site better let me know – you are a guest in my house and I want all of you to feel like family.  If you are reading this you are one of my original readers and that means a lot to me – we’re going to do something that’s never been done before and it’s going to take time and effort but why can’t we have a good time AND make money AND help people? 

From now on we will only publicize certain picks (I promised Seeking Alpha 2-4 picks a day) but will keep the comments (for 3-5 days, not sure yet) and spreadsheets (always) to ourselves.  There will be lots of private columns that track sectors but, most importantly, we will try to help you identify what kind of investor you are and what strategy will work best for you.

I’ve never done this before so don’t just humor me, ask questions, request topics, give us your opinion so we can build this thing together.  I’m very proud to have gotten this far after just one year…
continue reading





Thursday Morning

Last Thursday was not good.

Yesterday was not good either. It wasn’t bad – it just wasn’t good. Something has to perk up tech, especially the semis or it may be time to lighten up again into the holidays. Today may be the critical day as the VIX crashes and we set a direction ahead of the inevitable rebound after options expiration.

That’s the other big factor, options expire tomorrow and you can see a lot of stocks flat-lining into expiration and we can’t trust any movement we see this week so be very careful out there!

[Timothy Johnson]

As of 7am, oil was up a full dollar in European trading. Sen. Tim Johnson (D – SD) is in critical conditionand should he be forced to step down the Republican Governor, Mike Rounds, gets to appoint his successor and swing the Senate back to the Republicans!

OPEC did nothing but pledged to cut another 500Kbd in February, so let’s keep an eye on the March and April contracts to see how real the traders think this is. I will likely take this one last opportunity to double down Jan oil puts – if it ever stops going up!

Our prayers go out to Senator Johnson, who is just 59 but seems to have had a stroke – he is listed in critical condition after emergency surgery.

Asian markets were up across the board with India recovering 305 more points and saving my market of the year prediction (at least this week). The Hang Seng erased yesterday’s drop entirely as Chinese leaders seemed intent on making a public showingof telling Paulson and Bernanke who was really the boss while privately releasing “work plans for various government agencies to tackle tensions between the two countries.”

We have had the genuine feeling that some American friends are not only having limited knowledge of, but harbouring much misunderstanding about the reality in China,” VP Wu told Paulson and other senior Washington policy-makers at the start of their two-day meeting in Beijing. “This is not conducive to the sound development of our bilateral relations.”

Europe was flat this morning, BP has been advised there will be formal charges related to price fixing in a widening investigation.

At home we have to switch to watching our bottoms as oil will put early pressure
continue reading





Wednesday Wrap-Up

Wow – how low can the VIX go?

So low, it seems that I’m not even going to discuss the non-movement of the indices other than the SOX (the HORROR) who are assassinating the Nasdaq. Actually, the Nasdaq was amazing against a 1.23% SOX drop but I don’t see them keeping that up for very long – one has to snap soon.

Just be warned that the last time volatility bled this low was Thanksgiving weekend and we got a heck of a drop(300 pts) as the VIX came back up.

Oil didn’t do much either today (up .35) which you would think is surprising against a 4.3M barrel draw that was 3x analysts estimates but as long as we hold $61.69 through Friday, I’m happy.

I’m going to wait to hear what OPEC has to say but I am going to blow the whistle on the myth of Chinese demand this weekend (sneak peek in comments the other day) as this is the most overused excuse since hurricanes to pump up the price of oil!

I do have to say WOW to oil pumpers though. It takes a lot of guts to shove 21M additional barrels into February at $61.99 when March is Just $62.92, having fallen from $66.50 in just 8 sessions!

The dollar closed flat and gold gained a buck so there was not much point for showing up for anything today!

=========================================

At this point I feel like I was robbed taking a .15 gain on the first half of my DALRQ Jan ’08 $2.50s, now .80 (up .75!).

HD May $40s finished the day at $2.25 (up .30).

HPQ Jan $40s came in at just a buck.

LVS had a rough day, giving up 3 more dollars. The Jan $95 puts are now $6.20 (up 30%) and I’m taking them off at the first sign of trouble and looking to enter the Feb $80 puts so I can take half off the table.

I hope I was right about GSF giving me a top on the OIH. We initiated the Apr $140 puts for $6.40, hoping to sell the Jan $140 puts for $5.50 or more.

OII went nowhere, despite the huge morning rise in crude – very interesting! The Apr $40 puts finished even at $1.60.

I took another stab at OXPS with the Mar $25s
continue reading





Welcome!

If you’re reading this, then you’ve successfully subscribed to our paid site.

Once your subscription is processed, you can login to wordpress in the form to the right using the same login/pass you with which you signed up, and you’ll be able to post comments.

Be sure to check out the new virtual portfolio feature – which will be actively updated – and feel free to try out the new forum.

Thanks again for signing up!





Which Way Wednesday?

See Trader Mike’s Nasdaq chart on the previous post to get an idea of what’s going on in the market today.

I’m still bullish but the Hang Seng disagrees with me but India recovered 186 out of 800 points and the Nikkei posted a small gain despite the fact that the BOJ is almost certain to leave rates flat in order to prop up the dollar.

This hurts our MTU Jan ’08 $10s, but they are way up at $3.50 (up 25%) and we only just got them so I’m going to give it a little slack.

I think the general consensus in Hong Kong is that they’re not sure what’s going to happen this week but with two of the world’s most powerful bankers en route, they are pretty sure they are going to get screwed somehow…

Obviously our lower trade deficit lowered their trade surplus somewhat, so that’s kind of a drag as well.

Also of note in Asia is HD signing an agreement to buy Homeway, China’s DIY shop with 6 stores in 12 cities. It’s not about the company they bought, it’s about the fact that China’s letting them in! HD May $40s are $1.95and it’s a good entry but I was waiting for them to come down to $37. With this news a small entry is called for but it is very possible we’ll be taking the bulk of our entry lower. BBY may make a China announcement as well ahead of Paulson’s visit, we have 2 positions in that one…

Europe is in a pretty good mood this morning and they are exercising their economic might to further crack down on industrial pollution with some strict restrictions on chemicals used in manufacturing as well as cracking down on price gouging by energy companies. This may have a very nasty side effect of damaging the global natural gas cartel as the EU has been after Germany for some time to free up that market. Formal charges have been filed against Germany!

Other countries charged are: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Slovakia and the U.K. with violations, ranging from setting electricity prices so low that new entrants can’t compete, to not enforcing orders aimed at separating energy supplies and network operations.” This is like the the US government
continue reading





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Double Whammy China PMI Misses Spark Sell-Side Demands For More Stimulus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A record-breaking surge in monthly credit creation and a trillion Yuan of QE-lite was enough to provide a glimmer of hope into the tumbling Chinese economy for one or maybe two months but with the real estate market continuing to free-fall, it should be no surprise that China's PMIs finally catch down to the erstwhile reality simmering under the surface in the ultimate centrally-planned economy. China's official government PMI dropped from 30-month highs, missed expectations and t...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Putin Calls for Eastern Ukraine Statehood

Courtesy of Mish.

Putin threw fat into the Ukrainian fire today by calling for Talks on Eastern Ukraine Statehood.

The question at hand is" What precisely does Putin mean by "statehood" ?
Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Sunday for immediate talks on the "statehood" of southern and eastern Ukraine, although his spokesman said this did not mean Moscow now endorsed rebel calls for independence for territory they have seized.

The Kremlin leader's remarks, two days after a public appearance in which he compared the Kiev government with Nazis and warned the West not to "mess with us", came as Europe and the United States prepared possible further sanctions to halt what they say is direct Russian military involvement in the war in Ukraine. ...



more from Ilene

Chart School

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Gain

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets finished Friday on a flourish with a close at, or near new highs. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, which keeps thing ticking over in favor of bulls over the long weekend.  The Semiconductors had the best of it, although these gains were posted at the open.


Gains in the semiconductor index helped the Nasdaq close at a new high.  Technicals remain strong too.


The Russell 2000 remains inside the rising channel. The push from Thursday's tight ac...



more from Chart School

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest issue of Stock World Weekly. Click on this link and use your PSW user name and password to log in. Or take a free trial. 

Enjoy!

...

more from SWW

Option Review

Puts Active On Buffalo Wild Wings

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Ticker: BWLD) shares are in positive territory in early-afternoon trading on Thursday, reversing earlier losses to stand up 0.50% on the session at $148.50 as of 12:15 pm ET. Options volume on the restaurant chain is running approximately three times the daily average level due to heavy put activity in the October expiry contracts. It looks like one or more traders are buying the Oct 140/145 put spread at a net premium of roughly $1.45 per contract. As of the time of this writing, the spread has traded approximately 3,000 times against very little open interest at either striking price. The put spread may be a hedge to protect a long stock position against a roughly 6% pullback in the price of the underlying through October expiration, or an outright bearish play anticipating a dip in BWLD shares in the next couple of months. The spread makes money at expiration if shares in BWLD decline 3.3% from the current price of $148.50 to breach the breakeven point...



more from Caitlin

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Sabrient

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Gradient Senior Analyst Nicholas Yee reports on six companies that are using a variety of techniques to shift pretax profits to lower-tax areas. Featured in this USA Today, article, the companies include CELG, ALTR, VMW, NVDA, LRCX, and SNPS.

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Excerpt:

Nobody likes to pay taxes. But some companies are taking cutting their tax bil...



more from Sabrient

Digital Currencies

Disgraced Mt Gox CEO Goes For Second Try With Web-Hosting Service (And No, Bitcoin Not Accepted)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.

From the company profile:

“TIBANNE Co.Ltd. ...



more from Bitcoin

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



more from Paul

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>