Crises and deadlocks when they occur have at least this advantage, that they force us to think. – Jawaharlal Nehru
A lot of people ask me what goes on in the member site besides studying the virtual portfolio.
As I was looking for something clever I said on Wednesday (yes, I know the joke – must have been a difficult search!), I realized how proud I am of our community as a whole and felt it was a good time to give them credit for all the great contributions they make every day.
When we took the site private our primary goal was to make enough money to turn it into something realy useful and, just 3 months into it, I think it’s coming along fairly well. The old site was becoming too much like a Yahoo message board – just too much nonsense being posted by pumpers and bashers and no way to tell who was who – we were a victim of our own success…
Now we are well on the way to forming a collaborative trading community of sharp, involved people who bring a diversity of ideas and a wealth of information together every day. While my morning rants may set the tone for a day’s conversation, our comment section quickly takes on a life of its own – we never know what the day may ultimately bring, there’s no finer group of people I’d want to face the unknown with!
On Tuesday, after our long-anticipated "crash," I said "I’ll set levels in the morning but we can expect a 20% (of the drop) bounce at the open and ANY failure of today’s lows by more than 2 canaries means you ain’t seen nothin’ yet with this drop but I remain cautiously optimistic ahead of the GDP report, which I think will beat the 2.2% consensus."
By Wednesday morning I was a little more bearish, saying: "While I certainly don’t want to come across as a prophet of doom, I did say last night (and 20 other times) that I do expect a pretty significant correction at some point. If we don’t break out of 33% retracements of yesterday’s drops before turning down again, then I have some downside targets you are really not going to like. We’re going to take a step back today and assess the situation and, if we can turn this to our advantage then I will gladly take on the mantle of being the Profit of Doom!"
Wednesday night I warned that we had serious economic issues and I said: "Remember that stocks are a commodity too and the only thing we have to fear is that they fall out of favor and our wealthy friends pull out their capital and head for the safe haven of bonds (which can be attractive in low-growth, low inflation environments)."
In the Wednesday wrap-up we talked about a great XOM play we had made (which was nationally broadcast live on MN1 – you can hear me type it in while I’m on the radio!) and I thought it would be interesting to review some of the 226 comments that were made that day to see how that pick, and my thoughts, developed – with A LOT of help from my friends:
MJ – Posted February 27, 2007 at 11:50 pm | Permalink
Here are a few excerpts of the Strafor take on the Shanghai market debacle:
The Chinese government has become increasingly concerned about levels of investment in its economy or, more accurately, the sheer amount of money that is chasing projects. State firms with limitless access to subsidized capital from state banks have used that access to launch thousands of nonprofitable firms.
This glut in “investment” money drives up the cost of commodities and adds industrial capacity without actually producing anything of much use, making life more difficult for the average Chinese and unduly harming relations with foreign powers that face a glut of otherwise noncompetitive Chinese goods. This penchant for over investment has now spread to the stock market in two ways:
First, the same politically connected government officials who started dud companies are taking out loans to buy shares, or are using shares they already hold as collateral for new loans. Second, ordinary Chinese citizens have started borrowing — sometimes against their homes — in order to play the market.
In January, the number of total traders on the Chinese exchanges grew by 1.38 million, an increase of 134 percent from a month earlier, while stock turnover was up 700 percent from a year earlier. The net result is an absurd stock surge with no basis in fundamentals.
At present, some Chinese banks now have price-to-earnings ratios higher than financial behemoths such as Deutsche Bank and Chase, despite deplorable management and a history of highly questionable lending policies.For the past few months, the government has been working to drive down this speculative investing.
On Feb. 26, China’s State Council launched a new “special task force” that accurately could be referred to as the “get-those-idiots-to-stop-borrowing-to-gamble-on-the-stock-excha nges” team. Its express goal is to get the Chinese domestic security brokers to lay off such speculative decision-making, while also putting a crimp in the source of the subsidized capital.
Day one started by the script, and Beijing is likely quite pleased with the way things are going (or at least it was until its actions unintentionally triggered a global meltdown). Also, since the Shanghai exchange is actually still up 3 percent for the past week despite suffering its largest drop in a decade, the State Council probably hopes for more drops in the days ahead.
Sakiko – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:10 am | Permalink
Some overseas closings:
NZSX slightly down to flat
AUS down big (you should see their first 15 minutes, looks like a glacier)
Shanghai up 4%
Tokyo down big, also — closed 20 minutes early to avoid that same computer glitch…
So who will we follow when the US markets open ?
Ramana – Posted February 28, 2007 at 5:28 am | Permalink
From http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17371011/
In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.9 percent Wednesday to close at 2,881.07, rebounding from its 8.8 percent plunge Tuesday — its biggest drop in a decade.
Authorities in China also denied rumors of a 20 percent capital gains tax on stock investments — speculation that had played a role in Tuesday’s plunge.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index tumbled 515.80 points, or 2.85 percent, to 17,604.12, while Philippine stocks plunged 7.9 percent, their worst drop since 1997, at the height of the Asian financial crisis.
Australian stocks closed down 2.7 percent after falling as much as 3.5 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index was down 3 percent after sinking as much as 5.6 percent earlier.
In Europe, Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 Index was down 1 percent to 6,224.40 in morning trading, while France’s CAC 40 Index lost 2.3 percent.
Zmann – – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:12 am | Permalink
Serious size trading around par on XOM and BHI this am. Looks like somebody crossed over 3 mm shares of XOM at 9 and over a million shares of BHI a few minutes later. Probably the companies taking in shares from 1 or more fund sellers.
Sqroot – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:21 am | Permalink
Analysts at investment bank Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. are forecasting that oil could drop more than 30 percent in March to $40 a barrel and may even fall closer to $30.
This contrarian view is based on the rising cost of storing crude oil. The prediction is based on the fact that the huge rush to invest in commodity futures has pushed the market into “contango” (which happens when futures prices rise above spot prices, usually mirroring storage or handling costs) and that rising costs might soon reach a “breaking point” where speculators are forced to sell out.
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:29 am | Permalink
Yes, should be quite a rollercoaster ride today. .Most likely a short squeeze this morning is my guess.
Corey – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink
This morning green is starting to look like a dead cat bounce to me. Many positions are quickly turning red.
mrn – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:57 am | Permalink
Phil:I dd on AXP yesterday. Is the strategy to simply exit at break even on cost basis?
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink
AXP – When you DD to save a position you take half off on any tiny pullback once you get even. This leaves you with your original bet at a lower basis than you started with
I’m doing a ‘mon back on XOM $72.50 puts at under $1!
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink
I’m very tempted on the XOM – looks like volume is dying off after 10 mm in 30 minutes. That’s at least half repurchasing volume. Market weak (not much of a bounce), oil and gas off. XOM up a buck. Please!
silentstudent – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink
Has anybody else noticed the change of tone on CNBC? The cheerleaders are so somber, they sound like they are on the way to a funeral !
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:23 am | Permalink
Super choppy down at the 5% rule is a massive danger sign!
Ben needs to work on his speaking skills. Same old speech but this time the markets are more nervous
pantarei – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:28 am | Permalink
Lightened up on naked CALL positions as I can now get fairly good prices. EBAY Apr 37.50s out. Sorry to book -50% on that one. But market selloff spoiled this story, with the third red candle developing.
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink
Inventories
oil: up 1.4 mm bls
Gasoline down 1.9
Distillate down 3.8
pretty much in line little large to the street on the distillate.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink
Don’t forget the shipping channel was closed so we should get a drawdown in barrels – if not a lot of oil guys are going to be left holding the bag.
Crude up 1.4Mb – bad
Gas down 1.9M, in line (refinery shut downs)
Distillates down 3.8Mb – that’s a lot. VLO is happy, my CVX calls are happy. We’ll see how far they take it but I predict not too far…
BillBigD – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink
CTSH- July 90’s bought at $5.7 sold at $6.7 Couldn’t help it as it was down $1.40 while everything was up
In on PBR and XOM puts
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:33 am | Permalink
I’m taking some of the XOM 72.50 puts here
rockaintdeadyet – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:42 am | Permalink
Wow do I not believe we have “bottomed”.
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink
I’m under the same opinion, don’t trust this pump right now. There is still too much economic data coming out this week. . Seems would be a good time to short.
kustomz – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink
BA moving and acting well.
DELL picking up momentum
AAPL doing what it does best, that’s right its going up
markets have been exercised hallelujah
Lets see if this holds. Smart to sell some into this just to be safe.
Elotek – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink
Selling BA 90Calls against Leap..
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink
OXPS – I’m getting very spotty, jumpy quotes on esignal and oxps. A real pain in the ass.
I general, it seems like light buying across the board but if we don’t break levels we will start forming some very nasty patterns.
VLO breaking $58 is extreme danger for oil puts! I’d wait on adding too many more XOMS until VLO retreats a bit (I am picking up a few more at .80 though!)
Not adding puts unless we fail 33% and break back below 20%
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:49 am | Permalink
NYX is looking really weak with this surge, , buy some Puts???
sakiko – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:52 am | Permalink
I’m just seeing a lot of small trade sizes where I’m looking. Cautious posture. Maybe the high volume at the small size is causing order flow problems.
GS share volume is already 110% of average daily… and the night is young.
For example, put up a high-res of HD. $ 40 buck stock. It never looks like that.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink
VLO with a nice rejection – I dumped my oil calls and bought back positions I lightened up yesterday. Mainly because gold just fell $20 and oil’s down $1
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink
Over 6 million shares already on NYX. . that was the total yesterday. .
rmyadsk – Posted February 28, 2007 at 11:06 am | Permalink
Everything looks…choppy. Zig-zag, quotes all over the place. Testing the limits of the hybrid system? Bad news long-term for NYX?
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 11:09 am | Permalink
NYX – that’s a good point, if they have to reinstate floor trading they are changing their forward cost profile and lowering potential trade volume projections.
COP $65 puts looking tasty at .90
nltd – Posted February 28, 2007 at 11:42 am | Permalink
Appears to me all indices flirting with your 20%…we’re on a tightrope here!
nltd – Posted February 28, 2007 at 11:45 am | Permalink
Sorry, misspoke. Russel trying to get UP to 20%, and it’s a struggle…
Cap – Posted February 28, 2007 at 11:48 am | Permalink
Hope everyone is being careful today; covered most of my AMZN short early on.
Traded some SPY calls; not enough. Treading carefully here.
Also remember today is a Month End …. late day markups or markdowns could be a factor.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 11:54 am | Permalink
GS has a seller for every buyer – I may bail on those… If they break $205 I’ll stay.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 12:00 pm | Permalink
COP yes I did, just a few.
Level 2 is a mess, even CNBCs ticker jumps from second to second on the same symbol. I think they are still matching trades from yesterday which actually makes me bullish as you have the 4Bn trades yesterday which could back us up through lunch plus you have the nervous nellys who freaked out when they went home last night and told their broker to sell everything, plus you have margin call people, plus a poor gdp and a terrible PMI —- all that an now follow through down?
You need to flip your charts upside down and think if this is a real breakout (down) or a spike – what will it look like if next week we are back at 12,600? It will look like a good bottom test that flushed out the weak hands. So as long as we make positive moves towards a recovery, it’s not bad but the second we close negative – it’s terrible!
Prof – Posted February 28, 2007 at 12:08 pm | Permalink
Market is slowly cruising downwards today.
Not a good sign – for longs.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 12:29 pm | Permalink
GG calls – yes so worried I don’t seem to have them anymore! What was the basis? They were protective plays on a gold spike. I still have the AUY and the GFIs but if gold really breaks down there’s no point in them for the short run.
Huge oil pump timed for the end of Bernanke’s speech so the weather girl can tell you how bullish the oil inventory reprort was. Meanwhile the money flow on XOM is back at Jan 3 levels (where it took a power dive).
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 12:44 pm | Permalink
Don’t forget that a big chunk of the Dow gain is XOM up $1.40 and BA up $1.70 so it’s still very dicey.
Arindam – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink
Phil, any comments on FMCN?
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:11 pm | Permalink
I’m calling it right now, we are closing flat or red today. .
arnie – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:13 pm | Permalink
yep john I feel another slide coming in my bones
DIA moving down too
kustomz – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:20 pm | Permalink
We will reach levels where there are people just dying to get out. There will be a second minor sell off. The last 24 hours made a lot of money for some very smart people i hope some of those are here among us.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:27 pm | Permalink
FMCN – I am not a fan of directly betting on Chinese stocks. Too much of a lottery ticket.
rockaintdeadyet – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:41 pm | Permalink
There is heavy volume today (vs. three month average) and a whole mess of 1000+ ticks. I’d call that aggressive buying, but if you ask me it’s premature -yesterday certainly happened (at least I think it did…I don’t think I started drinking until about 2…). I very much doubt we bottomed yesterday. Whatever the fundamental factors (whether or not China is slowing, subprime is spreading, etc), we are no longer in a “Just tell your trader to buy dips and go out for a four hour lunch” type market. Longs here work if you’re nimble, but I see this as simply setting up great short trades.
I read an interesting article (maybe linked from here? I forget) about the market acting recently as a price-discovery mechanism rather than a discounting mechanism. I think that’s a pretty perceptive observation.
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:46 pm | Permalink
Makes you put everything in perspective. 2 weeks ago everybody would have pounced on GS at 200 and change. . Today it doesn’t seem as good of a deal when the market is as nervous as it is.
Elotek – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:50 pm | Permalink
VLO couldn’t take out 58.
zman – Posted February 28, 2007 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
XOM flat to last 1 1/2 of oil pump. Huge volume.
Interesting to see all the foreign guys flat or down: BP, E, TOT, RDSa, REP (except PTR). Fishy trading…may XOM is done for the day. I’d bet oil doesn’t stay up here on those numbers but that’s all it is…a bet.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:07 pm | Permalink
UPS is great if oil breaks down but they are pumping like crazy today – back to $61.52. USO is up a buck – I wish you could get puts on them.
Watch DIA to break over $123 (Dow 12,300) that would be a nice turn of the hourly BBands that will bring in some technical buying but below 12,288 and the day is a bust with 12,373 being the only thing that you can call a bullish recovery. Still the A/D line is excellent, indicating the general sentiment is that yesterday was an overreaction and not part of a bigger trend.
karmcon – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:22 pm | Permalink
Picked up some QQQQ Mar 43 P’s for .5 as a lil hedge and maybe a quicky.
Cap – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:23 pm | Permalink
Breaking down …
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:31 pm | Permalink
Spreads, best thing to do is just play with small ones and see what happens – you can read a million books but you’ll always remember the money!
Something is wrong at the NYMEX – USO raced up $1.26 (2.5%) like the word was given but the pump fizzled out. I think someone is dumping barrels into the pump, we’ll see what happens at the close.
VLO group looks weak but could still go either way… We need to watch for a couple to break from the pack!
mrn – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:21 pm | Permalink
Phil:
Been out, re. GG april 30’s (GGDF) cost basis is $1. You may not have them b/c you said you put in a bid, and I (being a recovering gold permabull) put in the bid and got filled. Could have scooped a quick profit but…
Recommend? It’s a small position.
happyTrading – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:53 pm | Permalink
RIMM not as expensive as ICE! =) I have March 140s. I’m counting on the continuation of the upgrade push from 2 days ago; throwing out yesterday as an overall market reaction. Since I already made good profits on these, I can afford to play a little. But, I think the reward/risk ratio is pretty good. I’m looking for it to go above 145 (or, close to it) again this week. But, like I said, the BBs on the daily chart is narrowing in. If it gets pushed hard and catch the upper BB, we’ll go to 150; if not, we’re range-bound for now. So, I’ll take quick profits as I see fit.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 2:57 pm | Permalink
GG – I wouldn’t sell into a 20 point gold drop. You might want to consider a DD at .60 and then sell 1/2 your total in Mar $27.50s for .75 (or take a small chance and wait for better).
If GG finishes at $28.25 all you have to do is give you caller his money back and your calls should all be safely back at a buck. If it goes to $30 you’ll have (for example) 20 contracts worth maybe $3,000 and you will owe him $1,750 plus his $750 back. That would put you in for $1,000 + $600 for a total loss of $350, better than you are now in a pretty poor case.
On the downside, if it drops to $25, you’ll have his $750 less the $1,600 you laid out = -$850 but you’ll still be holding 20 contracts that you only need to get .30 for to be better off than you are now.
Pretty much anything in between those two things should be an improvement and, of course, you shouldn’t let things get that far without making an adjustment.
BillBigD – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:09 pm | Permalink
Phil,
We holding the XOM 72.50 puts overnight? I am on a plane until about noon.
kustomz – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:09 pm | Permalink
BA
US Air Force Still Wants Boeing Helicopter If Possible
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–U.S. Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne said Wednesday that he hopes the Air Force can move forward with a $15 billion rescue helicopter program and buy Boeing Co. (BA) aircraft instead of holding a new competition. The Air Force hasn’t yet decided how to handle new recommendations from the Government Accountability Office on the so-called CSAR-X program. On Monday, the GAO upheld protests against the Air Force’s choice of Boeing. It recommended the Air Force revise its request for bids, seek new bids and end Boeing’s contract unless Boeing could win a second round of competition. Wynne and Gen. Michael Moseley, Air Force chief of staff, told the House Armed Services Committee they would like to move quickly to resolve the concerns. After the hearing, Wynne elaborated on the Air Force’s options. “I’d like to stay with what we got and get this program going as fast as possible,” Wynne told reporters
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:32 pm | Permalink
XOM selling – not yet as I just bought those puts for myself!
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:45 pm | Permalink
XOM – no sorry, that was an answer to Q as to whether I was selling calls against my $72.50 leaps but the answer is essentially the same – the fact that the contracts just jumped to $1.20 indicates I’m not the only one betting them down.
kustomz – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:50 pm | Permalink
John AMD says Barcelona a game changer
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)–Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s (AMD) quad-core computer chip, coded-named Barcelona, will be a high-performance product when it comes to market, Henri Richard, executive vice president, said Wednesday. “It is more of a killer product than Athlon was when it was launched,” Richard said, referring to the company’s present chip. He spoke at a briefing for analysts and press. Barcelona is expected later this year. At Wednesday briefing, AMD also said it expects to ship its new graphics processor, the 690G, announced Wednesday, in volume within 30 days.
By later this year is the only disheartening statement, by then INTC may be able to counter yet again.
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:51 pm | Permalink
Oh ok, I had to take 1/2 on the XOMs at $1.55!
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:55 pm | Permalink
Awesome XOM action . Other stocks will get saved by the bell but this is an important leadership failure for the energy group. SLB getting hit now on the service side. Gotta take more PTR puts now!
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
AMD – Yadda Yadd Yadda… Unless it does cold fusion, just wake me up when they cross $16.50.
Bill P – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:02 pm | Permalink
Also sold the XOM puts for a nice profit (40%). And my first day trade! Maybe I’ll finally start getting the hang of this stuff.
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:33 pm | Permalink
XOM filed their 10K an hour before the close. 22 million shares have traded since the close! Now over 3X avg volume. Something’s up. Guess we’ll know in the morning.
Bill P – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:46 pm | Permalink
I saw something earlier in the day about XOM shutting down their Venezuela operations. Not sure if I heard everything right and not sure if that has anything to do with the stock move.
nltd – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:50 pm | Permalink
XOM
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=XOM
Insiders have bought 16 shares, sold 600k+ over last 6 months.
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:51 pm | Permalink
N – could very well be. They were supposed to pr their capital budget for 2007 ($21B seems to be expected) and reaffirm the buyback today. Haven’t seen that yet.
Bill P – I’d be shocked to see them just walk away from it. That’d be a big boost to oil prices as Chavez would run it into the ground. He hates them but they’ve always just hung on. I bet they take him to the Hague over his plans as it is.
nltd – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:57 pm | Permalink
XOM
I particularly enjoyed this entry, nice tidy one-day in and out:
1-Feb-07 MCGILL STUART R
Officer 137,238 Direct Option Exercise at $36.19 per share. $4,966,643
1-Feb-07 MCGILL STUART R
Officer 137,238 Direct Sale at $74.60 – $74.68 per share. $10,243,0002
arnie – Posted February 28, 2007 at 4:58 pm | Permalink
Exxon Mobil: Dir McKinnell Won’t Seek Re-election
Phil – Posted February 28, 2007 at 5:42 pm | Permalink
Yeah, somebody dumped XOM big-time on some news. This would be a good time for you guys to read my XOM article: http://www.philstockworld.com/2007/01/09/exxon-unsafe-at-any-price/ when I though it was overpriced at $72 on 1/9 and see how far off I was.
You have to have conviction to relentlessly short XOM like we do because it’s a hard road to travel…
Cap – Posted February 28, 2007 at 7:07 pm | Permalink
End of month window dressing; its hard to distinguish whether any end of day volume is any thing other than that.
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
John
weak dollar means it takes more $to buy a barrel than it did the day before since the dollar is now worth less. So when you hear the dollar is down against the euro or yen it is supportive of crude prices. OPEC has vast dollar denominated deposits and sometmes when they want to jazz oil prices they threaten or actually do dump U.S. treasuries to depress the dollar and provide a bit of lift to oil. Of course, Nigeria does the same thing with thugs but you get the picture.
John – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
thanks zmann. i really enjoy your analysis of the drawdowns, etc. great stuff. .think oil/n.g. will gap down tomorrow with anticipation on the numbers? i was trying to debate how if it would be best to unload the COP Puts before 10:30 a.m..
zmann – Posted February 28, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
Glad someone finds it useful. Hard to tell sometimes.
Gas has been off 3 straight days so I think it treads water, maybe a little down or a little up before the number. Oil will do whatever oil wants to! LOL
The stocks are more tied to the borader market this week anyway
kustomz – Posted March 1, 2007 at 12:29 am | Permalink
Asian news
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/asia-market-updat e/2007-02-28.html
Im sure most of you have heard this over and over again the last 2 days “yen carry trade” explains how this can affect the world markets and good to know. I recommend the read
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/focus-on-currencies -part-2-of-2.html
Bill P – Posted March 1, 2007 at 12:33 am | Permalink
zzz – zman – I just want to second John’s comments. You are very much appreciated by myself and I’m sure many others – probably all others. I’m amazed at your knowledge and insights into the oil market and put a lot of weight on your analysis and calls – particularly when you and Phil are on the same page. Have to admit some of it is still gives me a bit of a headache trying to understand it all, but I’m getting a good education – and actually made some decent money today on my XOM puts!
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I know during a busy trading day we're all in a hurry and making a lot of snap decisions but let's make sure we take the time to listen to what the group has to say – there was a pretty clear consensus that there was no rally on Wednesday, depsite the 50-point gain on the day and we generally called it. The key is learning to trust each other and work together to pull out the best plays in any situation.
Jared and I (and Sakiko is helping now too) are working on some ways to improve the flow of information and we welcome any suggestions but this is a very impressive group of people and that's why I've decided we should build a new virtual portfolio together, pooling our best ideas and coming up with a mix of stocks that will hold up in good times and bad.
Monday we start with a clean slate (on the short-term virtual portfolio) and let's work together to help those of us who are behind to catch up a bit and for those of us who are ahead to get further ahead!
My thanks to all of you for Wednesday and every tough, enjoyable and exciting day in the markets – It’s a team effort and I will never forget that!
– Phil
