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Thursday Morning

13,600 or bust!

That’s our rally cry for the day.  Do we take back our bullish posture or are we going to end this week (and possibly this rally) with a whimper?  We finally get some data in this very slow week but we’re not going to like it:

  • Trade numbers we already know are dreadful, likely to break the $60Bn mark in monthly deficit
  • The Monthly Budget should be net positive and gives traders something to jump on
  • (All others are Friday)
  • June Export Prices may not exceed last month’s .2% but the dollar is is now down 2% since June 30th.  Oil prices are up 4.2% since June 30th too so look out for this number next month!
  • Retail Sales are likely to be flat at best in the morning – only great GE earnings will offset that.
  • Business Inventories were up .4% last month, if this continues we are slowing down more than expected.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment hopefully bottomed out at 85 last month.

Next week we get hammered with data and earnings including PPI and CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Leading Economic Indicators, FOMC minutes and the Philly Fed but Bernanke will be testifying before Congress and hopefully Karl Rove’s transmitter will be close enough to work this time as the chip in Ben’s head must have misfired on Tuesday when he failed to sugar coat the economy adequately.

D Fry Market Outlook 12 07 2007Jim Kingsland wrote a nice piece entitled "The Subprime Disaster: How Long Can the Experts Live in Denial?" so I can skip along and pretend it doesn’t matter today as clearly everyone else seems determined to ignore this stuff.  Like I’ve often said, just because we think the rally is insane, doesn’t mean we can’t profit off the madness!  David Fry says "I have never seen so much bad news shrugged-off as have recent subprime woes. One commentator noted, "People have been programmed to buy any dip." That could translate to "dips buying," but that remains to be seen. Bulls believe the subprime mess is "contained" now that S&P and Moody’s have lowered credit ratings."  Hey come on guys – lighten up!  Come on, drink some Kool-Aid and join the party…

I’d also like to give a shout out to Patrick.net, who posted a nice set of housing charts this morning, allowing me to ignore all that negative stuff myself so we can continue to accentuate the positive

The Kool Aid must be very strong in Hong Kong where the Hang Seng jumped another 202 points, although they did drop 100 points at the close (sorry, I need another sip myself…  ahhhh…  where was I?) to finish at 22,809.  The Nikkei also seemed to sober up after lunch and plunged close to 200 points in 90 minutes but also came off a very legitimate looking gap up at the open so only posted a 65-point loss for the day.  Japan’s central bank DID NOT raise rates as the Core CPI (their bankers share Kool Aid with our bankers) fell .1% in May.  Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui has maintained that if the outlook for the economy is convincingly solid, raising interest rates is possible even if consumer prices are falling slightly.  Hey, give that man some Kool Aid!

European indexes got a morning infusion of something as they took sharp bounces off early drops in the morning and are now trending generally higher.  London was happy that 4 people were sentenced to life in prison for the London bombings of July 21st, 2005.  That’s right folks, England’s legal system is as slow as ours!  Yield spreads on a benchmark European credit index jumped wider for the second day, raising fears that the troubled U.S. subprime housing market has dented the appetite for European corporate credit.  The speed of the move took some credit-market participants by surprise. "We’ve seen some indiscriminate selling of credit risk in the last couple of days," said Jim Reid, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank in London.

What a wimp!  Thank goodness he’s in Europe so we can ignore him…  RTP will not be ignored as they drop a $38Bn check on the table for AL, that’s 10% more than the 50% more that AA offered them in early May, a move I predicted could happen on May 23rd.  On a lighter note, if you haven’t read about what WFMI’s CEO John Mackey has been up to, you really must as it’s everything that’s wrong with public message boards in a nutshell. 

Retail Sales were mixed at best but the indexes are shooting up in the pre-market trading, just like they did in Europe and Asia – imagine that!  Expectations for retail were very low but WMT had a big beat (2.4% vs. .8% expected) focused on their warehouse clubs and COST (also discount club) had a 6% increase but M, SKS and JWN posted declines.  Hmm, people are scaling back on the high end and moving to discounters – it must be time to drink more Kool Aid!

So I’m very excited about the markets this morning, especially with oil back up .75 to $73.30 as refinery shut downs we reported on last week continue with the addition of a 250Kbd BP refinery in Whiting, Ind. going off-line on Monday.  Fortunately we took XOM Aug $90s as covers this week and this news should have them nicely offsetting our short-term losses, as I still see this as a blow-off top.  This will give the S&P and the Dow a nice kick in the morning, the question is whether or not they hold it:

spx_7_11_07.jpg

If Happy Trading likes the S&Ps chances, we don’t argue as he’s been on quite a tear lately.  Just yesterday Happy put us in CTSH Aug $85s at $2.15, MICC Aug $100s at $3.90, UTHR Aug $70s at $1.25 and GOOG $540s at $14.50.  All of these will open the day with nice profits AND ALL OF THEM WERE FREE, RIGHT HEREWe have a "Subscribe to Wang’s World" button right there on top so I don’t know what else I can tell you as I’ve never seen a better run of picks and I’m a pretty darn good stock picker myself!

I’m going to be watching the SOX and the Russell today.  If the SMH can break $40, it will be time to get back into the QQQQ Aug $49s at $1.15 and I’m going to pick some up anyway as a pre-emptive cover to my puts.  Watch rates and gold for warning signs that all is not going as well as we’d like.  Rates can be low because people are dumping dollars and I predicted yesterday that World Banks will step in to bail us out here but I am concerned that China has already been bailing us out to the tune of $130Bn a quarter, so we are putting a lot of pressure on Japan (who kindly left rates at .5%) and the EU to save our assets.

AAPL should get a fresh pop as RBC Capital ups their IPhone forecast by 35% to 13.5M units by the end of ’08.  We’re well hedged on our longer plays so this is a good time to take a shot at the Aug $140s at $4.45 and we will look to sell the July $140s if we get a good run or the $135s if Apple weakens there.

Gold will test $666 again this morning and a breakout there will really be a sign of the Devil as it means that the flight to quality for investors will no longer be the record cheap dollar in 5% notesI’m not going to get into the repercussions of that as it’s just too darned depressing so let’s just hit the punch bowl for today – as we continue to party like it’s 1999!

Have fun out there and don’t forget to take the opportunity to get out of those July calls you were crying over on Tuesday!

 


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  1. thedraz

    BBD -

    Thanks for the EMC advice!

  2. karmcon

    Appears not many saw the GM down grade besides myself, GM up .18 early……:sad:

  3. BillBigD

    PCU- upgrade by MS today! Will the roll the free Sept 90′s to Sept or further 105′s. It is not to late to join this party. I hope LOL.
    American Airlines- do they even care about customers anymore. Dropped flight last night so in Miami for the day.

  4. Cap

    So, what is the hot pump it to the moon stock for the day today ? Anyone get that fax from GS or Merrill ?
    We need to get in early on that speculative crack.

  5. _fab

    JOSB – What news? Down over 5.5% at open!

  6. optiondragon

    Hopping on PCU and FCX too.

  7. BillBigD

    JOSB- bad same store sales, buying back July 40′s from yesterday

  8. Henk

    Out of CTSH AUG 90.-with a gain of 80% since yesterday. Thanks Happy

  9. Phil

    GM – can’t fight the big market though, let it run up then maybe the $37.50 puts.

    DIA note – this is why we stop out of mattress plays! Thank goodness I did what I said I would do yesterday – now I just have the Aug $136 puts and I will likely roll them up on today’s excitement so I’ll be right back where we started but with lots more cash. On the plus side, the DIA Aug $138 calls were a hedge against exactly what is happening now but I’ll be rolling those to $139s or $140s, depending on where the music stops. XXX

    Q’s are slow going so far and GOOG wierdly dead. YHOO dead as usual…

  10. _fab

    JOSB – Ditto, bought back Jul 40′s on expectation this is overblown (this thing called initial excitement ). The only thing I could find on it is same store sales up 0.4%, not great but not bad either.

    But I’ll probably sell the Jul 40′s again. There’s much premium left.

  11. optiondragon

    So I’m trying my best to hold on and letting my profits run and trying to extend doublers to triplers and here Phil is selling my calls against my position!!! Sweet. I want to see you guys hold your positions while Phil is telling everyone to short your position. Letting profits run gets thrown out the window quick!
    Oh and ICE is probably gonna go higher.
    There goes our PCU Bill!
    It was a toss up for me between PCU and FCX.

  12. Mr_Sparkle

    BillBigD,

    AA does not care about consumers now, if they ever did which I doubt.

    I got stuck in Miami once – their fault – and they put my wifre and I at this scary hotel. (Miami Airport Regency) I wrote them a letter about their selection of hotels and they basically said, “We can’t control the hotel, not our business, please go away now.” Apparently nobody ever told them about total user experience or anything like that.

  13. codydog

    is anyone else having a problem connecting to zman’s site?

  14. zmann

    OII launching with the OIH not back to highs yet. BHI a close second on the day. wahooo!

  15. zmann

    cody – my site is down. It’s going to be so sweet to be over here in September full time! Jared beats my host’s service level by a million miles.

  16. trdsfr!

    SBUX – What’sup widat?

    Happy – Thanks on the overnighter on CTSH!!!! Wow

  17. Chemistry

    Im fighting the same thing dragon, trying to let those profits run, its tough!

  18. karmcon

    Bought ICE Sep 180′s at 9.0

    Bought CTSH Aug 85′s at 3.1

    Finally caught the jump in BOOM 40′s held long time at .40

    Dumped the WFR Aug 60 P’s for .5 pi per contract, think it may leg up SOON

  19. Phil

    Dragon – which one – OIH? I’m not short yet, waiting for SLB to give me a turn signal.

    SBUX going down no matter what.

    MCD has got me puzzled. Going to initiate Sept $52.50s at $1.30 XXX

  20. Matrix

    1530 on S&P, not bad.. . cmon 1540. .

  21. karmcon

    Saw target of 115 for CTSH and 200 for ICE last PM and the analyst has been spot on lately so will ride em for a bit

  22. Fan

    phil – thoughts on CAT july 85 calls sold yesterday? Should I stop out or hold? Thanks.

  23. trdsfr!

    Phil I sold Aug/July 50 spreads on CCJ yesterday. Should I be worried about the July 50 short calls? Was the open a flush or a threat?

  24. dday97

    Mornin’

    Out of half of my DIA 137′s.

    Taking half out of JCI’s (tks Optiondragon)

  25. Phil

    Thank goodness I have Aug oil puts because my Julys would have been smoked! Still hurts though…
    My poor DIA July $135 putter is getting killed but I’m not sure how much further up we can go (near 13,700) so I’m starting a roll of the DIAs here – just in case. Gold punched right through and this is record territory for the Dow but I’m not seeing enough confirming action from its buddies and I don’t see the Transports holding 3K with oil up here.

    AMZN in kick-ass mode. CROX not. WFR taking off.

  26. optiondragon

    Phil- ICE, when you wrote my $165 naked yesterday! Man I was conflicted. Still my trade was good and still is good. I knew it was going higher!

    New market highs today!!!!!!
    AMZN off of retail numbers exploding.
    PKX exploding!!! AL blowing up all valuations. PKX has earnings monday.
    SNDK, CENX, JCI time!!!!!, CME, Phil-FXI going to go ballistic with retail numbers do not short.

  27. BillBigD

    Sparkle
    That is the hotel they offered me! HEE HEE. But they wanted ME to pay the discount rate of $69. I told them to F-off but still cost me $90 in cabs back and forth to my place.
    PCU- now a double from when I brought to the blog. Stock only, options $$$$
    GES- nice

  28. optiondragon

    Uh throw a dart and it is probably going up.

  29. trdsfr!

    Phil or Happy – too late to the party on WFR or will it play catch up now?

  30. zmann

    out OII July calls; too far too fast.

  31. optiondragon

    Bill if you had the forsight that LEAp move would have netted at least a 100 bagger in options.
    10,000% baby!

  32. Mr_Sparkle

    BillBigD,

    I was so livid after staying at that hellhole that I took pictures and posted them on tripadvisor.com. You should really read the reviews of that place and thank your lucky stars that you didn’t stay there. I think it’s only in business from stranded AA travelers. One woman that was on our flight said she was so disturbed by the lack of cleanliness that she slept sitting on a wooden chair in her clothes.

    I’ve been watching GES too and pulled out too quick on the profits this morning before I could reset my stops. Oh well.

  33. optiondragon

    Happy nice trade on CTSH. I should have followed!!!!!

  34. Phil

    OIH – $3 seemed to be the right price to sell the $180s – will DD if it goes to $5.

    BOT still flying – someone thinks another bid is coming. They are a tempting short here, maybe Sept/July $230 puts for a $5 debit.

    Speaking of debits – $10KP play buying 5 CLF Aug $90s for $3.35, selling 5 July $85s for perhaps $4 but certainly with a .20 tstop. XXX

  35. HappyTrading

    Good morning!

    CTSH
    out with +86%! Good going everyone!

    NMX
    1/2 out with +14.3%

  36. Phil

    FTO weakening?

    TSO – nicely down.

    EOG $75 puts at $1.65 as a mo play ahead of inventory. XXX

  37. mj23

    NMX kicking ass again!
    AMZN lets go into the 80s and Cramer will pump it up to 100.
    CTSH finally back into mid 80s.
    NYX attracted towards 80.
    VLO wants to go higher and TSO lower.

  38. size123

    Good morning Happy, I was hoping that you weren’t sleeping in this morning.

  39. Phil

    Appropriately, people are buying lots of METH! 8-)

  40. zmann

    OIL rallying on a down field in the north sea. has nothing to do with gasoline which is flat. the market is downgrading TSO accordingly ;-)

  41. karmcon

    WFR in the 10-11am run cycle right now…….Back in the Aug 60′s myself at 4.70

  42. Fish

    GM up, DNA down. grrrr

  43. size123

    VIX is cooling down.

  44. daveo

    10KP – CLF – the July 85s are a long way from $4. Did you mean $3?

  45. BillBigD

    BOT- is it another bid or just following the CME move? They get .37 per share of CME.
    optiondragon
    PCU- leaps only came out about two months ago. Bought the 70′s at $7 rolled to $90 at 22. I really don’t even know what %, but it is mucho dinero as now thesale Sept 90 were free. That was just one trade. HEE HEE

  46. taxsniper

    Oh No. Herr Bush is going to open his mouth in 18 minutes! Better get out or cover anything long while you can.

  47. juliet

    Phil, I really feel the day you told me to buy AU was a super day…thanks.

    j

  48. mj23

    I know Happy made some really big profitable plays on solar stocks. But I this guy http://beanie11111.blogspot.com/ timed it the best. Now he is recommending SOLF aug calls. I have no freaking clue about SOLF. Anyways, it is 100% pure speculation play. If interested check out his blog.

  49. thedraz

    Happy – Thanks oodles for CTSH!

    Of course, I got out of my NMX Julys yesterday for a pretty big hit. Today, well, you know….

  50. daveo

    CAT – Phil, are you still short the July 80s? Yesterday you mentioned that you didn’t believe in the jump.

  51. dday97

    EMC

    The OCT 120′s look pretty good here, we’ll see what they have to say on 7/24 earnings.

  52. mj23

    CSCO about to pierce 29 for a new 52 week high.

  53. HappyTrading

    CTSH
    you’re welcome!

  54. karmcon

    Out of 50% of the ICE Sep 180′s for 20% quickie

  55. Matrix

    CSCO – breaking out over $28.50 anyone??

  56. vishal

    happy, i bght the GOOG july 550s for 9.7 instead of the 540s u recommended….. do u think i shld get out here or wait till tomorrow?

  57. mj23

    I got the idea about home builder and sub primer leap puts from Prof and I was very patient with most of them especially CFC, IMB and HOV. HOV made its move down. Still waiting for CFC and IMB downward moves (new 52 week lows).

  58. BillBigD

    DRAZ- As PHIL stated why are you buying July’s? July’s sell yes! July buy no!
    DECK- a 1/3 out from yesterday’s buy.

  59. Phil

    CAT – why is it at $85? You can always roll but you never panic into a spike.

    CCJ – that’s a dangerous spread as you have nowhere to roll to. I do think they pin $50 and then go up after expiration but I wouldn’t want to chance it if gold and oil take off.

    GOOG – what the hell? I’m thrilled because I thought I was going to eat those $540s – especially with Happy scaring me! Now I’m being smart and stopping out if they bounce back more than 20%, maybe picking some up if the rally lasts.

    JCI – good one Dragon!

    ICE – oh that was short lived for me. Got stopped out right after I told BBD how smart I was for calling a top!

    FXI – BS to that. I can’t resist the $140s – you have to look at how ridiculous their basket is right now. Sold 10 at $2.80, will sell another 10 if they break up from here.

    WFR – I doubt they will really get going here. SOX not being that strong so I wouldn’t chase too hard.

  60. thedraz

    dday – on EMC, did you mean the OCT 20s? I doubt they’ll get to 120 that fast.

  61. HappyTrading

    ICE
    exploding higher!!

  62. zmann

    What is the deal with bush speaking during inventories???!!! That’s weak.

    Nat gas pre game: under 85 Bcf – bullish. Finger on trigger for APC, COG, SWN, KWK, and XTO. CHK will move a little slower up if you miss those but the run will be more limited. Ditto NFX which is currently down.

    If big number (95+) puts on just about anything, especially OIH, BHI.

  63. thedraz

    BBD --

    I had been in the Julys from a few weeks back and didn’t roll out early enough because, well, because…I’m still learning and was afraid to take the bigger loss at the time. Thanks for staying on me…you’re advice has been very helpful so far.

  64. mj23

    Just my thoughts. EMC and INTC have gained a lot the past few months and now have considerable higher forward P/Es versus their growth rate. Probably MSFT is a better buy?

  65. dday97

    thedraz,

    EMC
    LOL, yes 20′s. Looking at too many things at once I guess.

  66. Optrader

    Feeling real lucky today. The 4 puts I own are all red: CROX, TSO, CCJ and DELL. In this market, shows how weak they are.
    Great call on CTSH Happy, thank you.

  67. BillBigD

    TCK- nice move from my mention earlier in the week. I took Feb’s.
    DRAZ- I’m just a wimp. I like giving myself time to be right.
    CTSH- nice play Happy! Still pissed at my 35% loss from July 90′s and July 95″s. First loss on this guy for many years. Have shares so life isn’t bad.

  68. taxsniper

    They shouldn’t allow that joke to speak while ANY market is open. He pretty much says such stupid things that everyone just wants to sell everything and then hang himself. Find me a rope…

  69. zmann

    106 huge bearish number. BHI puts.

  70. Phil

    BIDU selling off.

    CLF – I’m looking for $4 on a good run but now the rally is running out of gas so we may need to take what we can get! XXX

    BOT – that’s a good point but people are nuts not to discount the gains somewhat if that’s the case.

    AU – good day for both of us – I told you I’d put you in 1st class!

    CAT – sadly yes but I’m in the leap with a .05 basis from previous sales and it’s worth $17.55 so I’m moving pretty much penny for penny up. That means protection means more to me than maximizing monthly profits so I only roll to in the money calls. He’s still got .60 of premium and I can roll him to Aug $80s for another $1.60 in premium with $3.30 in downside protection so I’ve got no urgency.

    SLB with the BIG turn! RIG $110 puts at $1.82 as a mo play, .40 tstop. XXX

  71. Phil

    BHI Aug $85 puts at $1.62 XXX
    BHI July $85 pts for .30 as a fun play XXX

  72. BillBigD

    CRTP- out with 1 gain from yesterday.

  73. HappyTrading

    MA
    shooting up!

  74. zmann

    sold bhi 90 calls, bought bhi 85 puts. Hal getting crushed. oih should get benched on a number like this.

    bought SWN 45 puts

  75. Phil

    ECA Aug $60 puts at .93 XXX

  76. HappyTrading

    BBD, congrats to your PCU, too! Just awesome! =)

  77. JPL

    Happy, any thoughts on DDing on DO?

    BBD, thanks for the help on CCJ, made nice money.

  78. HappyTrading

    BUCY
    breaking out!

  79. zmann

    Glad I’m out OII, very tempting your puts there Phil – there’s a delay on this as CNBC didn’t break the number. The stocks aren’t really acting all that shell shocked yet.

  80. BillBigD

    WNR- shoot me but I bought some when down $2 for a quickie.

  81. zmann

    Funny how Bush speaks during the energy report when the number is huge.

  82. Phil

    Bush always speaks over bearish numbers – if someone has no life they can go back and verify this but it happens over and over and over again – way too often to be a coincidence.

    Z – which major sells the most gas? COP right? I think they are shaking out puts here before a down move…

    Bush: “Of the 18 benchmarks congress has asked us to measure – we can report that we have made satisfactory progress in 8 areas.” Only a C student can say that with pride!

  83. zmann

    SWN daily chart looks positively disgusting and that’s one expensive pig if natty gas tests $6. So far gas is asleep down $0.14 as it was before the number came out. Nobody but nobody can see this as positive.

  84. taxsniper

    Phil:

    That’s proof that our “No President Left Behind” policy is working.

  85. Phil

    OII – Aug $55 puts for me, now $1.38. XXX

  86. calch

    Phil,

    I have the XOM ’09 75 puts @ $5.5 basis and was thinking of rolling this up to the 80 puts for another 1.30 or should I roll these all the way to the 85 puts for another 3.2

  87. juliet

    I love man who keeps his promise…first class baby! Thanks.

    j

  88. Phil

    GOOG at the $540 mark! We don’t want to blow that (well I sort of do but not too much – I’m very conflicted!).

    RIMM zooming again, that’s a good market sign.

    Bush didn’t say anything that was taken as negative by the markets so we should get a good push here.

  89. BillBigD

    BUSH- the other day they said O progress. Also someone smarter than me expain to me why would be upset that the Turks with 140k troops want to go into Iraq. Give us some help maybe?
    ZUMZ- took my small loss on the Augusts and move on. Sick of watching it.

  90. amt0803

    The Turks have a big problem with the Kurds, who are very friendly to us.

  91. cartmanfta

    Phil

    “RIMM zooming again, that’s a good market sign.”

    i thought u are neg- on the stock or u being sarcastic

  92. codydog

    zman — how now? getting smoked on OIH puts

  93. dday97

    “Nobody but nobody can see this as positive.”

    You don’t really think that do you? Maybe they won’t think it but they’ll spin it to make others think it.

  94. HappyTrading

    STP, Aug 35s
    took some more off, at $8, +176%

  95. Fred

    Thanks Happy on STP
    Out of SEP 45′s with 84% gain

  96. zmann

    10 bcf of the number was reclassification so the real number is 96. Still big # as we’re only 3% below last year’s record levels but the oih is taking solace in that and moving with the broader markets again.

  97. ramana

    GRMN – up $0.63 to $80.32. Is there is compelling business case for this to go to $100 …

  98. taxsniper

    Phil. He’s still talking. He just said we americans are all psychologically damaged and that’s why we want to bring our troops home.

  99. windywheel

    just back from a meeting…
    Karmcon, what did you do, go out and buy a bunch of General Moron cars and autos???
    stop that please!

  100. dday97

    STP

    Solid call Happy. Taking some off my Sept 45′s up over 30%. I’ll let the rest ride it out for awhile.

  101. Phil

    XOM – I would base that decision soley on whether you can afford the spread to sell puts against. Obviously, given the current spreads, if it gets worse, you will be able to do your second roll for $1.30 too, saving .60 (10%). The Aug $85 puts are $1.25, which cover your whole first roll and there’s over $3 of cushion before they hit. Don’t forget time is on your side.

    Wow, oil with a huge reversal on the promise of neverending war, buy programs so extensive they are even picking up WFMI… Oil testing $73.50 and XOM up $1 and the Aug $90s are an insane $1.80 and still going…

  102. HappyTrading

    FFIV
    just jumped, 85+!

  103. libertarianwackjob

    SWN down I’m in the aug 45 puts tight stops in this crazy market

  104. HappyTrading

    OIH’s breaking out!!

  105. thedraz

    Dragon – lovin’ the JCI so far!

  106. codydog

    zman — also some rumors that Big E is NOT rotating another carrier, but being added as another carrier, bringing the total to 3. just a rumor though but makes sense with Bush comments.

  107. jeddah62

    TM – what’s with the malaise on TM?

  108. thedraz

    Dudn’t he love that “hard work” meme?

  109. karmcon

    The only GM car I ever “kinda” owned was a 1974 Buick Apollo when I was 16, even back then I can remember thinking, this car sucks! Datsun Honda and Toyota guy for the 30 years since then.

    btw I posted some nice GM news for you on the Wed Wrap up post, have faith and thy shall be healed my child! :oops:

  110. Phil

    RIMM – I am fundamentally negative but you have to go with the flow here – if they want to take the market to 14,000 there’s no sense in fighting it just because they’re insane. That RIMM move was, in fact, very bullish.

    ZMan is wrong – Phil Flynn can see it as a positive… 8-)

    GRMN – of course there’s a compelling case – It’s at $80, which means it’s going to $100, which means it’s going to $120. Gosh, didn’t you learn anything in business school???

    VOLV broke $22.50 I must say (pat, pat).

    I think Bush believes, deep in his heart, in the Iraq as a magnet for terrorist theory. In other words that by us being there with a giant target on our backs, we draw the fire to our military and away from the civilian population here. He always seems very sincere about that point and it does have some validity but is that really a way to fight a war – just keep sending people in to die forever?

    “Scooter Libby decision was, I thought, a fair and balanced decision.” I’m sure the woman who’s life he ruined thinks so too…

  111. optiondragon

    JCI- now that we have a doubler, lets see what we can get before earnings.

  112. cartmanfta

    GOOG needs a boost from CME being 590

  113. V Poon

    FFIV – I got a caller on July 85. Should I buy back since it is so close to expiration? I am afraid of getting the shares dump on me anytime if it close above 85.

  114. windywheel

    oh no….i’m being fed religion now… ‘have faith and thy will be healed’
    if i wasn’t scared before now i’m absolutely terrified!!!!!!

    (will read post soon as i catch up, hope there’s not more religious zeal there too)

  115. zmann

    Standing by the SWN and BHI puts for now. Gas is weakening a little now. OIH will be broad market first, gas second influenced.

    Re Flynn – Touche

    Re Iraq as magnet: bad way to fight a war although it’s not really a war but an occupation, we just can’t call it that.

  116. cartmanfta

    Happy,

    MICC do you see 100 soon

  117. zmann

    oih lost 180

  118. HappyTrading

    MICC
    yes!!

    GOOG
    should go higher, as the markets are looking to explode to new highs!

  119. HappyTrading

    FSLR
    moving!

  120. codydog

    if we’re keeping terror in iraq, how come Chertoff is out saying his “gut” says an attack is coming?

  121. Phil

    OIH/Oil – I’m going to retreat back into my fundamental shell and ride this out. No way do I buy this but I’m just going to ignore it and trade other stuff for now.

    DECK charging back up from $99.

    TM – weak dollar hurts them as they can’t raise prices fast enough to keep up. I don’t know why they’re worried, it’s not like we’re going to start buying American cars or something.

    ERIC at ATH due to fantastic phone sales numbers in Europe. They sell the most expensive phones on the market and this is 2 Qs in a row of blowout numbers. I think 13.5M IPhones projected is still light, especially in a “booming” global market. I’ve been to Japan a few times and I can tell you that there is no way they don’t buy 10M IPhones over there as fast as Apple can ship them.

    I had a 1978 Barracuda as my first car and then a 1979 Cordoba, which I loved but then I had a Honda, a Mazda GLC and an RX7 and I never had any desire for an american car again.

  122. amt0803

    The fact of the matter is Richard Armitage was the leaker. Scooter Libby didn’t leak it- the crime he did was he perjured himself when talking about his conversation with Tim Russert.

    No one cares about Armitage because he was Powell’s right hand man, both of whom were war critics.

  123. windywheel

    how long do they let this guy speak for?
    somebody take out the batteries, please!

  124. HappyTrading

    QCOM
    finally into the game! has caught daily upper BB!

  125. BillBigD

    Juliet- Did you see the FCSX options tighten up quite a bit. Still big but nowhere near on Monday.

  126. ramana

    Chertoff’s Gut – made in Iraq ?

  127. kustomz

    There is a war in Iraq, its being fought by Iraqis and Americans seem to be getting in the way. Bush is a coward blaming everyone else but himself and his closest cronies for the clusterf*k that is Iraq today.

    Hes delusional!!

    Seems most of the bad is baked into MOT.

  128. taxsniper

    If we ever have to smoke out another Noriega type, we could just play tapes of Bushy talking and talking and talking…

  129. HappyTrading

    FFIV 86+!!

  130. optiondragon

    JCI…..pounding the table on JCI. More room to go! July 125 strangle into earnings initiate with 125 calls first then puts later.

  131. libertarianwackjob

    MICC has turned up

  132. zmann

    natural gas down $0.22 vs down $0.14 at time of report

    gasoline just went negative.

    SWN and KWK back to worst levels of day. BHI still near highs but on oil and broader market. Looks like heavy OIH buying below 180 but pattern of lower highs setting in. If natural gas gets routed HAL’s buyback won’t hold the OIH up.

  133. yopauly

    FFIV- Go baby go!

  134. djczing

    Phil: I think he sincerely believes that also – and I think theres an argument for it. Of course its one of those arguments taht could go on and on.

    What really damages his credibility on the terrorist argument (in my mind) is that if its so important, why do you stubbornly leave our southern flank wiiiide open. Maybe we’re drawing em into a trap so we can crush em in Nebraska ? Hmmph…

  135. Phil

    FFIV – ouch and a half! Well he still has $2 in premium and the Aug $85s are $5.20 so I’d take a deep breath and walk away from it for a while – it pretty much can’t get any worse. Nasdaq is moving very slowly and the broad markets are being boosted by 2% rise in energy sector, which is 20% of the S&P so that’s 6 S&P points in oil and another 3 from the commodity sector (AL, gold etc) and another 4 points from the brokers. That’s out of 12 points in gains – I’m not saying it negates the rally, someone has to lead, but it is the same unhealthy leadership we’ve had all year, strangling the broader markets. FFIV is a very good company that’s been consolidating in the low $80s for some time though and may have some legs so perhaps consider adding a little extra to your own leaps for protection as you can always sell against them later.

    Bush thinks he has 5 “constituancies” the troops, the families of the troops (who want this war to succeed), the Iraqis, the enemy and, oh yeah, the American people (and I’m sure he means people who own oil companies). I swear that’s what he just said!

  136. optiondragon

    Happy bought FFIV Aug 90′s yesterday and holding till earnings.

  137. Brainfill

    SNDK – Sold July $50 puts, as tech’s still want to rally. Low ball bids on Aug calls for STEC and NCTY…let’s see if I get them.
    Does anyone know of news on REDF, with 20%+ gain yesterday 14% today?

  138. HappyTrading

    PCP
    new high, 130+!!

  139. steve

    @djczing

    Southern Flank? What, you think we’ll be invaded by the Mexicans?

    Oh, wait….

  140. dday97

    AAPL just ranging itself now

    First car was a Monte Carlo. Bought a F-150 way back when and have driven one ever since, upgrade every few years.

    Bush- We are stuck between a rock and a hard spot. Hardliners of Sharia Law denote that once they defeat us and run us out of Iraq, will be be a victory for them, then they will attack us and achieve victory on our soil. Problem is, they have a 100 year plan starting from when Osama declared in 1998. Our agencies only have 2-4 yr plans except for the certain agencies who have 10 yr plans.

  141. thedraz

    Dragon -

    Followed your advice from yesterday and sold half my JCI at a double….I wonder if I should have waited a bit longer…but I’ll just try to enjoy the free ride on the rest.

  142. HappyTrading

    FFIV
    good thinking, optiondragon!

  143. alfamike

    Phil – any opinion on AMGN? And thanks for the gold picks esp ABX, they’ve been been so strong.

  144. djczing

    OIH – still holding the 180s short. I probly shoulda sold em yesterday — OIH is lookin a bit tired but one Nigerian hangnail or another motorboat in the straits of Hormuz can change taht in a heartbeat. Im em short and hangin on by my fingernails — regretting a bit that I didnt buy em back yesterday. I see all that time premium and perhaps am a bit greedy ?

    TM is my other one – I hold the 125s short, and TM has made good progress back towards 125. Probly gonna take those out before the day is out though — right about a 20% gainer – considering that TM is a longer term position should I just let the caller go and try to reap more time decay ? The long call is Jan08 125.

    This is my first time holding short front-month options into expiration (I always thought front-month was evil before), so im a lil jittery with the ones that are ATM. I think I remember phil saying look to get out of July contracts – but does that mean short contracts against longer term positions ? Certainly it depends on risk tolerance and outlook.

  145. HappyTrading

    STP
    continuing up again!

    Markets/GOOG
    about to explode to new highs! C’mon GOOG, time to your thing!

  146. juliet

    Yes BillBigD, I noticed that as well. FCSX beat the earnings and also going to split so I am going to hold mine for a little bit longer. Are you still holding?

    j

  147. ramana

    GRMN – :-) Thanks, Phil

  148. Optrader

    WOW, there has not really been a pullback all morning. A very strong bull.

  149. cartmanfta

    is MA boosting cuz of the retail numbers

  150. mSquare

    OIH – Too late to sell the Jul 180 call (now only $2.65)? Had stepped away and just returned to screens. Have some almost worthless Jul 160 Puts left to sell against.

    CTSH – Great play Happy. I eat crow (and maybe will learn to heed to your breakout call next time)

  151. dday97

    JCI

    Just pure greed on my part now, I know I should sell the rest but can’t stop letting it run.

  152. optiondragon

    Happy, I’ve been doing alot of DD on PCP and found out that they have the largest international growth in revenues in terms of percentage in the US for Large Cap stocks.
    Float 137 million. decent.

  153. HappyTrading

    JCI
    wow, that was a good move!

  154. jeddah62

    VIP
    Happy, do you thing it will hit 120? still moving nicely

  155. Phil

    BHP and RTP experiencing what poker players call a tilt as money flows from one to the other!

    I’m so glad I sold those RTP $330s on Tuesday but amazingly they are still fetching $2!

    DIA Aug $138s are half out at $1.95 and I will see if I pick up the $139s or not later, currently $1.55. XXX

  156. Cap

    Thank you amt0803.

    Its a shame that Bush critics are so reckless with the facts because of their irresolute hatred of the man.

    Armitage (and Powell for his silence) get off scot free b/c they didn’t fit the conspiracy theory du jour, and so the media and Dems can go off on their Bush/Rove/Cheney/Libby witchhunt.

    The non-scandal of the century. Ms. Plame never had it so good. Unknown CIA hack to media darling.

  157. jeddah62

    VIP

    not 120, 115

  158. optiondragon

    I usually like to break earnings events into 3 parts. Pre earnings trading, earnings strangle, then post earnings gap trading. JCI still gives you a chance to take more off the table and make it risk positive/reward positive trade, worst case scenario.

    I ususally like to trade big going into earnings scalp the IV for huge gains, strangle the event with puts accordingly to a weighted risk/reward (2to1, 3to1) for a free ride and bank out on a five to ten bagger.

  159. windywheel

    my first car was a sky blue plymouth duster
    my father woke me up on the morning of my birthday and said, ‘come, we’re going to pick up your car’
    imagine the excitement!
    rode home alone with my 9 year old kid brother and we were literally screaming at the top of our lungs for the entire ride home
    that brother is no longer alive, didn’t make it to see 20, but that day stands out as my best memory of him and me, and of any car in the world.

  160. mj23

    Finally and for god’s sake nasdaq seems to breakout and lead the market. NDX right around 2000, which is more important that the freaking DOW crossing 14k. :-)

    well I guess with DOW and NAZ making new highs now, Tom2oc bearish call from couple of days is going to be incorrect.

  161. HappyTrading

    NMX
    wow, doing the “Superman” thing. thedraz, are you doing better, in the green yet!? It might just go back up to 140, soon.

    ATI
    1/2 out with +40.4%!

  162. zmann

    OIH tanking

  163. Matrix

    CSCO – posted earlier, is this thing breaking out?

  164. jazzkool

    Phil, I know this is supposed to reserved for after hours and weekends, but what was the Scooter Libby comment about? FWIW, you have to admit that Bush is clever. Without pardoning him and the appeal of his conviction ongoing, Scooter will be able to take the 5th on any court required questions on anything related to what he did as Chaney’s aide, including Wilson’s civil suit. Bush pardon will come in January 2009.

    Jazz

  165. Cap

    This market is nuts; grinding higher; I do not see broad participation.

  166. BillBigD

    VIP-Just another example of a stock that was scoffed at at $55. LOL
    PCP- Optiondragon Zacks loves it! In since $107
    FCSX- yes still in!
    PCAR- like chart.
    MA- I want it back to $170 before I get excited. LOL

  167. thedraz

    Windy --

    What a sweet story…and so sorry about your brother.

    Dragon --

    Some time, when there’s time, I’d love to ask you more questions about your strategy. Sounds great, but I don’t get it all. Thanks for sharing, though.

  168. Cap

    TSO just cracked again.

  169. Cap

    OIH too; you would think the Dow and S&P might get off the day’s high’s at least.

  170. thedraz

    Happy --

    No, I completely screwed up on NMX, and then didn’t know where to get back in….I just ate a big loss on my Julys by the end of yesterday’s trading.

  171. cowboy

    Dragon – Many thanks for JCI. Very nice !.

  172. optiondragon

    PCP- is a correlated play to the devaluation of the dollar and I like to link it to the FXE. The higher FXE goes the better for PCP. PCP should have very good earnings thus a earnings run before earnings.

  173. thedraz

    Is there a good entry for PCP here?

  174. zmann

    Took FTO Aug 50s for $1.90.

    SWN cracking lower now.

    OIH trying to hold onto 179

  175. V Poon

    How come NYX is down while NMX is up so much ….

  176. alfamike

    Windy – very cool story – sort of alludes to what’s wrong with GM now tho, that their cars no longer embody that mystique…hard to get too excited about a late model Cobalt.

  177. zmann

    sorry that $2.90 on the FTOs

  178. djczing

    V Poon – NYX was up around 5% yesterday – its gonna be an aquirer – NMX likely would be an aquired when further M&A happen.

  179. HappyTrading

    thedraz, sorry to hear that; wish you had rolled with us. Hopefully, you’ll make lots of money elsewhere!

  180. djczing

    UNH – has been a dog.

    It hit what appears to be good price support yesterday – and today its up, even in the face of announcements of $1.4M they are gonna take to re-date employee granted options. Still trying to fix their reputation after letting McGuire get away wtih his spoils.

  181. HappyTrading

    CTSH
    mx2, hey we all have our moments! =) Plenty more of money to be made!

  182. Phil

    Oil creeping quietly down (oops sorry I wasn’t going to talk about it!). Selling XOM Aug $90s at $1.75 as they topped out at $1.85 on a brief spike, like DIA, will decide later on reposition. XXX

    AMGN – I think we did that yesterday. It was sell the $55s for .85 against the Aug $55s, now $1.02 as earnings aren’t until the 26th.

    REDF – India gathering strength in general, market was up 100+ today, excellent growth…

    OIH/TM shorts – this type of trade is one of the most reliable money makers in the market but, sadly, not available to people who don’t have a lot of cash. You are selling 5%+ premiums over 2 weeks. If you do that 12 times a year a stock has to gain 60% to burn you over the long run. This is what rich folks do to you short-time call buyers every single day and, as we saw from the wealth report, they get much much richer by doing it. That was my main motivation for doing the club – it’s really unfair that regular investors can’t benefit from the more exotic trades.

    10-year at 5.12, was 5.04 yesterday morning – no one cares…

    If you ever worry that “professional” traders know something you don’t – just print out this chart of Dow component AXP and write on it “They are no smarter than I am.” This stock is tracked by 17 analysts and runs a business that can be wholly summarized on a spreadsheet and they haven’t got a clue in the world whether to buy or sell it…

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart18:symbol=axp;range=5d;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    MA – retail numbers didn’t suck so this is a massive celebration of mediocrity – have some punch!

    OIH – that’s why we ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement. If you wait for a turn, that’s what happens. My logic was I would sell at $3 and again at $5, giving me a $4 basis so now the stock would have to close at $185 for me to lose 20%. Plus, knowing what we do about implied volatility, I know it wasn’t just that it would have to keep going up, but it would have to keep going up at the SAME rate as it climbed in the morning or the premium would deflate anyway. (darn and I’m not supposed to talk about them!).

    JCI – Damn Dragon – why didn’t you make me buy that? Can’t say you didn’t try – great call!

  183. zmann

    Looks like we’re getting our key reversal day on oil.

    We needed a big up morning: check
    Followed by a rapid sell off: check
    Accompanied by falling product prices: check (gasoline now down just short of 4 cents).

    A dime in 2 days with oil up is pretty darn bad for cracks!

  184. optiondragon

    Bill- My brother and I like Zack’s too and think they are very good researchers and analysts.

  185. BillBigD

    CAT- took Nov 85 off the table $1.3 gain. Looking at doing the same on JEC.
    Getting ready for BH mall for lunch and girl watch.

  186. djczing

    Could we be starting the long-awaited oil correction ?

  187. VJ

    Phil,
    GSK – I have 7 Nov 52.5 which i bought for $2.76. You think i should sell all or may be 4 of them. What do you think?

  188. zmann

    Natural gas getting simply shelled now down $0.27 at session lows.

    Oil off $0.33 and I do think that $73 level is extremely important. Can you say key reversal day. I was saying in today’s post (having stolen much of trader Nicky’s prose) that we needed a big up morning and then a heavy sell off.

    Gasoline almost down a nickel.

  189. Phil

    Scooter – Bush commuted his sentance already. He pays a fine and no jail time – I’d love to follow that money and see where it comes from!

    Dragon – it would be great if you could turn that into an article. It’s a strategy I highly endorse.

    XOM – oops, forgot to mention I have been on plan accumulating XOM Aug $85 puts, now $1.20 XXX

    DIA – settling in on Aug $137 puts to reestablish my downside covers, now $1.98 XXX

  190. dday97

    DIA

    Out of remaining calls…ka ching. Will establish some protective puts as well.

  191. kustomz

    DOW up nearly 200 points and BA down? Now thats manipulation

  192. Cap

    Opttrader … remember “Free Money Day” ?

    This is one.

  193. Phil

    NMX – tracks oil to some extent. NYX has many complex issues to deal with. Absolutely great play to go long and sell short calls. Meanwhile, selling the July $140s, now $2.45 is a must by EOD against at least half of my Aug $140s. XXX

    Zacks – good stuff.

    GSK – why not sell 6 July $52.50s for .70?

  194. optiondragon

    1/2 out JCI for 200% gain. Hold rest for earnings and buy puts right now July 115puts@.70 1/2 position of a 1/3 of the total call position left.

  195. zmann

    APA is the oiliest large cap E&P. Still up today. PTR likely to get into profit taking mode if we see oil roll over and it’s up as well.

  196. zmann

    and then of course there’s SU

  197. HappyTrading

    GRMN
    82!!

  198. Optrader

    yes, Cap, it is a “free money day”, a huge one. Just sold all calls (CTSH, CAT, SNDK, ILMN, FCX, STP, ANF). That’s enough for the day, no need to be greedy. I also bought some DIA puts for a daytrade. I will look at calls again at the end of the day or before if we get a significant pullback. Keeping all puts (TSO, DELL, CCJ, CROX and AMZN just bought for daytrade).

  199. HappyTrading

    RIMM
    going for a new high?!

  200. optiondragon

    Hold PCP July 130calls or you can still buy the AUG $135 calls.

    Holding RIMM $220 July calls from $2.40 now $3.60. Beautiful set up for breakout. Markets breaking out.
    Now breakout patterns are more likely to succeed.

  201. BillBigD

    COH- nice move for this guy. FINally

  202. djczing

    Phil: re: TM, OIH shorts — Thanks for putting my mind right yet again. Ive been drooling all month at the thought of my callers’ decay accelarating. Thump me in the head enough, and maybe my mind will stay right ! (as opposed to left ?? Hmmm).

  203. HappyTrading

    STP
    wow!! all gone!

  204. Phil

    SU too good a deal with cheap nat gas.

    APA looking very strong too, I’d rather take the Aug $80 puts at about $2 as a mo play but not if they’re holding $84.

    PTR – my Aug $150 puts are down 35% and I’m more likely to roll to $155 puts for $2 than DD.

    RIMM – back to ATH is an absolut put grab for me! In reality, this is not g big move for them on such a good day. The puts are too expensive now but I’d sell the $220s if they get to $5+

    Next week is going to be rough with data and don’t forget GE had 11% growth in pretty much every division last Q, if they don’t match that tomorrow people may become concerned. It’s their lending division that I think is most likely to spook the markets but they pared back on everything but NY commercial almost a year ago – the question is what did they have outstanding before that that caused them to pull back from the broader markets?

  205. jeddah62

    JOYG
    any thoughts on going higher? looks like it bounced off 63.5 twiced and failed but holding steady at ~62.

  206. Phil

    RIMM – sorry to be clear, that’s the $220 calls I would sell for $5 but it doesn’t look like I’ll get that chance anyway…

  207. thedraz

    Thanks for the STP, Happy!

  208. HappyTrading

    STP
    43+!!

  209. djczing

    Geeez this dollar better find support here.

    How can oil go down much with the buck breaking through decade support ?

    The GLD (et al) move is working well. Funny, because it didnt do anything for the whole dollar decline to this point.

  210. Cap

    Opttrader; only thing not working for me today was jumping on DIA puts. Bad move.
    TSO good; ICE sold the 180 calls short on volatility spike; just covered.
    Closed out some smaller positions XOM short puts, BHI short puts; nice gains 50% +.

  211. CG

    zman – I have the HK Aug 15s with you. HK has broken support and moved down to $15.50. Still ok w/ the position? Thanks for all your notes and advice!

  212. Jack_Of_Hearts

    Phil,
    AMGN – do you mean to sell the 55′s against the Aug 55′s (which are 2.15) or the Aug 57.50′s which are 1.05?

    thanks,
    Jack.

  213. Optrader

    OK, this is officially my lucky day. I had some EUR/USD left from a trade on Jun17th. I usually don’t trade FX too much, only when I am bored and the markets are closed here. Well, I left some of my position run, juts because I liked the daily (Price had just crossed the positive 5MA, stockhits rules for anyone familiar with this). Well, I just looked at my account because I heard of ATH on CNBC and I have a 400 pips profit ! Maybe I should just leave and go golfing now :)

  214. Gordo

    AAPL just sitting there like it ate a half dozen Taco Bell burritos, while markets soar

  215. optiondragon

    STP- 82 million share float, 10% shares short with 8 million, 3 days to cover, this one could really fly if it gets TASRed.

  216. Optrader

    Cap, very difficult to go against the trend on the day like this. Especially on such a breakout. I just bought DIA puts as well, because I think we need a breather, but I will get out fast, one way or the other.

  217. windywheel

    happy
    STP out at +60%!!!!
    thank you so much!

  218. Yev

    Phil, everyone

    I’d like to get your read regarding upcoming Apple earnings. In your view what would Apple have to come out with for the stock to power higher? Although I believe earnings will be a blowout, given the run-up from previous earnings, possible unreasonable “disappointment” with iPhone sales, current price is probably viewed as “everything is baked in”. Given Apple’s conservative guidance, there is a possibility of a sell-off on news. However if there is a sell-off in my view it will be a great buying opportunity as Apple is entering its “money” season, which is Q4, and Q1.

    All opinions are appreciated.

    Thanks

  219. optiondragon

    Optrader what was the percentage gained on risk with that? Nice

  220. HappyTrading

    LA People!
    Btw, I’m still looking at my calendar and trying to decide what to do. Can people who are interested in a seminar (say 2 hrs?) of some sort, please send me an email at:

    happytrading2007-wangsworld@yahoo.com

    Thank you!

  221. mj23

    CSCO — just amazing volume and new 52 week high.

  222. Phil

    Check out the 10-year!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart23:symbol=^tnx;range=5d;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    Longer dollar futures are in backwardation – touching 80 in March!

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL

    Lots of barrel rolling at the NYMEX already. Still 550M barrels over 3 months but now it’s:

    Aug 180K (contracts)
    Sept 293K
    Oct 88K
    Nov 52K

    The real problem for these guys is they are going to run into December at some point, where they already stuffed 193M barrels – you’ll see Sept swell to over 350K by next week, maybe 400K but what happens as we approach Dec. Cushing can only actually process 40M barrels a month and storage is full to the brim within 500 miles of there as this has been going on for ages. If they have no hurricane or some other DEVATATING supply disruption – these guys are going to start choking on oil in November for sure – my DD and roll plan that is in effect now is starting with about 300 short positions at $50K now with allowances for a $30K roll to Sept, perhaps a DD to $130K (the $30K spent on the roll is a “loss”, not a number that gets doubled) another positon roll of $60K in Sept and then a major bet in Oct, which would, worst case, bring this position up to 20% of the portfolio. That of course assumes no covers and no chances to take half off on a dip for 3 consectutive months.

  223. rockaintdeadyet

    Oil looks toppy to me today Phil. Your look at the futures in the further out months, the large difference between the commercial shorts and speculative longs -and today’s little price reversal. Barring the possibility of hurricanes, etc., I’m looking for oil shorts.

  224. windywheel

    happy
    CRS out at 8.1, +95%!!!!!
    wow, things have begun to turn around for me finally
    thank you sooo much!!

  225. windywheel

    happy,
    no fair discriminating against the rest of the country
    why not do an e-seminar?
    i’ll be the first one to sign up!
    windy

  226. thedraz

    Windy --

    Great news for you. My luck starting to turn, too. Losing less and more slowly!! Actually, been in on some terrific ics and have gotten great advice from so many on here.

  227. optiondragon

    Holy moley! I just read John Mackey’s comments on his own message board! Oh wow! LOL
    There were days where thats all he did, posting 8-12 times a day!!!!! Talk about a cheerleader!!!!

    http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=rahodeb&action=Search&r=Huiz75WdCYfD_KCA2Dc-&within=author&within=tm

  228. thedraz

    Or maybe time for a much needed left-coast vacation, Windy.

  229. Optrader

    Optiondragon, that was a 260% gain on “Margin used”, not on “risk”. My stop was at 50 pips, so profit is 8 X R. I use 50:1 leverage (I use Oanda as my broker and you can change your leverage).

  230. HappyTrading

    LA people,
    Btw, it probably won’t be any time soon. Most likely end of Aug, or early Sept. So, don’t worry about timing. I’ll give plenty of time to notice, as I need time to prepare also. Will also need to get a feel of what people are looking for.

  231. zmann

    natural gas short covering rally ending. good entry on something like swn if you missed earlier.

  232. mike p

    hi everyone, what a up day we’re having!

    from RBC research today:

    Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO; 52.83; NYSE: CCJ)
    Rating:
    Risk Qualifier:
    Price Target:
    Top Pick
    Above Average Risk
    80.00
    Delay in Cigar Lake Remediation
    Second Phase Slightly Behind Schedule: The second phase of remediation is to dewater
    the mine, install surface freeze piping and operate water treatment facilities. Completion
    of this phase was previously expected in Q3/07 but management now expects additional
    months to seal the inflow and dewater the mine than previously forecast.
    Implications: A minor delay of a few months would not be unexpected and would be
    immaterial to our valuation. Any delay in Cigar Lake could be offset by higher production
    from Rabbit Lake depending on the success of the current exploration program. It is
    possible that a short delay could have a modest positive effect due to potential increases in
    the price of uranium.

  233. karmcon

    Jennifer Flowers, Monica Lewinsky, Linda Trip and Kathleen Wiley are 4 (of many?) women who had their life’s ruined by a former Pres personal actions (who also was pardoned)….:wink:

  234. zmann

    CG – HK – should have good story at earnings Aug 8. Like you said, near term chart got a bit crocked. I’m going to be adding longer calls here as per the newsletter, no more Augusts.

  235. karmcon

    GROW going nuts up $1 in 2 minutes

  236. HappyTrading

    CRS
    congrats, windy! It is flying!!

  237. optiondragon

    My fav retailers are doing well. JCG, GES

  238. Phil

    Cap – scaling in is key!

    AMGN – selling against the $57.50s. DNA didn’t catch a break so it’s unlikely AMGN will get a lot of pre-earnings excitement.

    AAPL – like GOOG, you can take that up any day. Even for rich folks, there’s only so many trades you can make in one day and those guys are expensive and toppy while WFR or INTC look like huge bargains. It’s the same thing as I said about oil. If I’m a tech inclined fund manager, I’m already heavy on the high flyers so I’m looking to round out a little if we’re going to have a big rally.

    DIA – I treat those more like a strangle to keep myself from losing 20% if the Dow opens up or down 500 points.

    Yev – I agree with you! I am currently 100% hedged on Apples with the $130 and $135 calls I sold but my Oct $140s gained .50 today and the $130 caller only gained .30 so I have no worries. Even my Jan ’09 leap outgained my $130 caller, still at $4.50. I’ll have to see how these shake out – if they expire deep in the money, I’ll be forced to roll to the Aug $135s, currently $6, which would cover almost half my October basis but if Apple finishes closer to $130, I will probably sell the Aug $130s on 1/2 my position. XXX

  239. mj23

    Phil, why do you think the crooks will not cancel their crude contracts this time around. They have been doing this successfully and pushing the price of crude higher and higher for the past year?

  240. k1

    Popped my cherry, bought my first-ever option. Followed Phil into XOM Aug 85 puts at 1.15

  241. HappyTrading

    AMZN
    creeping back up!

  242. HappyTrading

    e-seminar
    Interesting idea. I was given a demo by some guy, who’s affiliated with Goldman, introduced to me by optiondragon. He gave me an online demo of their trading software. It was very interesting. I’ll look into it!

  243. steve

    Happy:

    IMO, if you’re planning an e-seminar, one of the best pieces of software that you can acquire is Camtasia studio. It records your screen and you can talk into a mic to explain things.

    Hope it helps

    S

  244. Phil

    Mackey – If that isn’t illegal then I really don’t understand SEC regs at all!

    CCJ – I have decided this is all nothing but pinning to $50 for expiration. There is nothing that we haven’t heard before so it’s a good time to pick up Jan $55s for $4 XXX You can sell the Aug $55s for .78 but I’d rather wait as you can always sell the Aug $50s, now $2.48 if things go south.

  245. jeddah62

    Happy – an online e-siminar would be awesome!! count me in too. Need to bring the landlocked midwest into the fold.

  246. Highlander

    phil,
    if you roll aapl caller to aug $135 don’t you get exposed to earnings upside & upbeat talk on 7/25?

  247. Yev

    Phil,

    I have a healthy combined position in Apple in Oct/Jan 08/Jan 09. I must do something with it before earnings, either hedge or sell out some of it. In addition going to Japan for 2 weeks and won’t have time to baby sit my accounts and I’d like to have a satisfying trip instead of nerve wrecking :)

    If you don’t mind I’d like to post what I have for you toward the end of the day to get some ideas on the possible strategy.

    Thanks !

  248. thedraz

    Welcome, K1.

    Was deflowered by options last summer!

  249. mike p

    wondering whats driving todays rally…..?

  250. thedraz

    Phil --

    I have a few Aug RIMM 240s @ 3.88. I’m still tentative about my understanding on diagonals. Would it be wrong for me to sell some July 230s @ .95 or 1.00 against them at this date?

    Thanks.

  251. Brainfill

    CROX – I may be early, but buying some Aug Puts, as I am suspicious of the retail sales rally today.

  252. optiondragon

    Happy- yeah the gotomeeting.com feature is really cool and can include everyone!

  253. Phil

    Crude contracts – they do cancel them because 400K is the realistic limit for a front month but that’s like you buying out your callers for a premium – it costs them money. The problem is they have to cancel out an extra 100M barrels worth of crude very early in November because they can’t roll the usual 350Kb into December. I doubt traders will wait until the last minute so my macro prediction is we get to October with no major storms and they head for the exits real fast.

    Poor participation in our treasury auction – DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER DANGER!!!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart26:symbol=^tnx;range=1d;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    Congrats K1 (I hope!)

  254. Optrader

    I thought the whole idea behind the California reunion was to have some drinks by the beach. I don’t think we can do that over the net.

  255. optiondragon

    mike p- retail sales showing that the consumer is not dead. Complete reversal from HD, SHLD but now with more shorts on board the covering takes us higher than previous highs.

  256. libertarianwackjob

    What a bizarre rally almost all my longs havent moved since about 9:40 this morning

    look at the daily chart s on ACH and CHL weird

    Except for MCD thxs Phil!! MCDIX

  257. HappyTrading

    CRS
    out at +100%! (might still be early)

  258. mj23

    When the DOW is above its 10 DMA, the second week of the month is MEGA MEGA bullish. Check out http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2007/07/bullish-bias-for-dow-stocks-next-week.html

    I watched this 3 times and said enough and took the plunge on monday and bought some DIA 135 calls. Added more on tuesdays drop and now my calls have doubled :-)

    Its just amazing what these bloggers (including Phil, Happy, Z) are doing to the small guys like me! So much good karma for you guys :-)

  259. Matrix

    geez, markets breaking out?? I guess the close will determine how real this is. .

  260. thedraz

    Optrader -

    We can slurp them loudly near that mic thingy on the Camtasia.

  261. thedraz

    Happy --

    Don’t forget to mark you CTSH position closed on your site!

  262. windywheel

    draz,
    glad to hear it! for both of us!
    always happy to go to the left coast, last there in march.

    optrader,
    so have drinks by the beach
    and an e-seminar for all!
    2 separate activities

  263. HappyTrading

    CTSH
    draz, thanks! looks like it’s going back up!

  264. optiondragon

    Buying the Amzn AUG 75 calls @3.40

  265. mike p

    optiondragon-

    thanks,so a good day for selling rather than going long

  266. rockaintdeadyet

    Definite breakout in the markets. Whether to trust it or not is another issue. One day subprime is hurting the markets, the next day no one cares -one day higher yields are killing the markets, the next day no one cares. I’m not one to stand in front of a train when I can step on it, though. From a market internals perspective, today’s rally is defined by an absence of sellers. Hasn’t taken us a lot of strong tick action to move sharply upwards. Just moderate, sustained buying and thin offers.

  267. thedraz

    Happy — will you get back in CTSH then?

  268. Cap

    Phil … scaling … yes, of course; didn’t hit it big; but given the pump job; its a quick and big deterioration in contract value. Not inclined to scale more in at the moment. Just may have to suck it up.

  269. Gmiles

    Hi Phil,

    I’m thinking of GG calls. Any suggestion? Or any better company I should get for Gold sectors?

    Thanks again for your great advice,

    Miles

  270. vinaydh

    Happy, what are your thoughts on google? I am confused as it’s not moving with the market.

  271. Phil

    AAPL roll – yes but I’m protecting huge profits in Oct and Jan so I am conservatively shielding them from POSSIBLE (I know, how dare I even consider it!) disappointing results. No matter what happens, I am selling the Aug $135 caller a $2 out of the money call for $6.65 – that’s $8.65 of movement (7.5%) before he gets even. Apple’s last earnings were a 35% beat and they popped just $5 and I can always roll to September.

    Yev – always fine to do after hours but it sounds like almost what I have.

    Mike P – I told you this morning, it’s Kool Aid! Here drink some and buy some stuff. Remember, if it’s at $80 it will go to $120…

    Diagonals – gosh I sure would with RIMM, just set a stop at $1.50 and hope you don’t get some insane gap. They just had earnings so $15 would be a hell of a move for 6 days. 30-day spread diagonals are very dangerous but less so than a bear put so I much prefer them. You just have to learn to watch the spread, not the individual positions and set a comfortable stop there.

  272. windywheel

    phil,
    are you still in BHI?
    thanks

  273. djczing

    Hehehe – ahh bonds be darned !

    Gimme some more koolaid and lets get ready to trade a SPY breakout !

  274. karmcon

    A web site I access for technical analysis education uses hotcomm software by 1stworks and allows the instructor to turn indivduals mics on and off depending if it is Q&A time or chart instruction time. The charts display interactively with the instructors voice and I have found it a very good format to allow video and voice synching along with the ability to verbally ask questions to the instructor on a real time basis. Here is a bit of the “read me” file from when I downloaded the software. It didnt cost me anything as a user, but I am not sure of the cost to the site itself.

    As used in this Agreement, the term “Service” refers to 1stWorks’ hotComm service, which enables fast, private, interactive and direct or server assisted peer exchange of text, audio, video or content between participating hotComm users on the web or on a private network, all software provided by 1stWorks to the USER to enable use of the hotComm service (the “Software”), and all modifications, updates, and revisions thereof, and any documentation provided therewith.

  275. mike p

    LOL- Phil :)

    wish i could but but I just can’t bring myself to jump in! (been 80% cash since early june)

  276. karmcon

    Just scalped .50 on the GROW Aug 25′s in less than 30 minutes. Don’t know the reason for the mo jump but stock was 23.01 30 min ago and is now 24.45.

  277. Optrader

    OK for the e-seminar while having a drink :) Even DELL turned green. This is very strong.

  278. coolkid

    Phil,

    IRBT calls still holding it?? doing really good!

  279. thedraz

    RIMM diagonals – Thanks, Phil. Actually, I had the calls in a small IRA account, so with margin issues, I could only sell one against them. But this will be a good hands-on learning experience.

  280. Mike

    What you guys think about buying SNDK Aug 50 @ 5.20 and sell Jul 55 @ 1.50. If it rallys thru exp., one makes about 1.3 and is called away. If not, then 3.70 cost.

  281. Highlander

    cnbc- covering the ultra (filthy) rich ‘gathering’ . they report that everyone who counts will be there. then noted that Steve Jobs will not attend. you just have to admire Jobs. He and Apple stand out way above the rest in every way. Having once been diagnosed with terminal cancer he knows that there is far more to life than rubbing shoulders with these idiots who the repubicans defend from higher taxes since they creat so much wealth for all of us.

  282. mSquare

    OIH – back over 180 and Jul 180 Call approaching $3. Is this my second chance at selling it or should I wait to get more later today?

  283. HappyTrading

    GOOG/AAPL
    maybe they are holding them back until later to give the markets another push? GOOG should explode above 550 when they let it go! We’ll see…

  284. Phil

    Meetings – I don’t go anwhere without steaks or sushi and cocktails… There’s no way I’m going to use up away time (I don’t like to leave my kids for too long) doing dull stuff!

    MCD – 8-) about time with those guys, one of my longest watch list dogs.

    FXI – I hadda throw in the towel on those shorts – way too scared of Asia’s reaction to a 200-point Dow rally. XXX

    I’m back to a lot of naked calls and heavy DIA puts to cover so I’m blowing off the bulk of the DIA calls. Stopped out of tons of July short calls and july puts and I just am not in the mood to restablish here so I’m going to go a little overweight in DIA puts, keep the Q calls, which barely moved and see if I end up stopping out of my naked calls tomorrow. XXX

    Gold – try NAK, great long-term play Feb $15s at $1.75 or Aug $12.50s for $1.07 or buy the stock for $12.95 and sell the Nov $12.50s for $2.10 for a $12.50 return on $10.90 invested – 15% in 4 months. This is a great very long play that would be fine to own if they fall back to $10 (and you can roll your caller down anyway). XXX

    AUY is off to a slow start and Aug $12.50s are just .57, these guys are on a 50% growth path so the Jan ’10 $15s for $2.65 are also interesting and you can sell Oct $15s for .38 which may not sound like much but do that 10 times in 18 months and you’ve got free contracts. XXX They are down on an offer to buy MDG for a pretty good premium. If that deal dies, like ICE, AUY should get a boost, with the deal – I still like them.

  285. alfamike

    How about the IBN Aug 50 puts @ 1.35 ?

  286. Jack_Of_Hearts

    Highlander – you actually believe that crap? Jobs treated his sister like a turd – he’s no special human being.

  287. karmcon

    WFR finally joined the party…..going to 64 by tomorrow I think (hope!)

  288. yopauly

    FFIV- ATH!

  289. HappyTrading

    CTSH, going back in?
    not at the moment. Let’s see what the markets do. Don’t forget to lock in profits.

  290. Optrader

    This is obviously a technical rally. They can try to explain it as much as they want on CNBC, as they always do, but we are only rallying because there was a breakout that triggered a shorts squeeze. This is the main reason why leaders with good fundamentals (GOOG, AAPL, etc.) are not participating.

  291. VJ

    Phil,
    Would like to go long on a Latin American ETF. Which one will you recommend, ILF, EWZ or EWW?

  292. thedraz

    Thanks, Happy. Actually, I got out a long time ago, right after I saw that you did, but not quite as high.

  293. karmcon

    OpTrader,

    Not going to even pretend I am as knowledgable as you in the upward movement, but aren’t RIO, MA, INTC, CHL, and GLW companies with good fundamentals? (I do agree with you on the GM increase, however! lol) Or, is there more to the technical rally theory?

  294. Phil

    BHI – sure I don’t buy Augs to flip in and out of generally.

    Forget DELL being green – YHOO is green! YHOO, I’m not kidding, look at it. This is so crazy even SBUX may turn green…

    IRBT – I don’t think I ever filled it. Damn shame too…

    SNDK – July $55s for $1.62 is just free money. The stock has to gain .50 per day for 6 days for him to get even and you will gain over $2 on that move so you’re looking at $60 before this hurts you. That of course means that you can do a bear call with the July $60s at .40 and have almost no possibility of damage but you are tossing 25% of your potential gain. I’m going to make that play myself but with the Aug $52.50s so that’s FIRST selling the July $55s for $1.62. IF they run up to $1.75, then I will buy the Aug $52.50s to match, now $3.70 and THEN I will consider capping it with the August $60 calls, currently .93 as I will maintain some value that way that may be better than having the July $60s expire worthless. XXX

    OIH – they are up on BS oil pump into the close, just an opportunity to me.

    GOOG – they look like they’ve been halted, every time I check they are in the same area…

  295. daveo

    TASR just fell off a cliff

  296. 6fingerman

    Phil, I have EXM Sept 30s from 1, now 4.4. Can’t find any near term calls to sell b/c premiums aren’t that high. Would you roll to the 35s and pocket $3?

  297. Ethan Steiner

    Phil – are those EOG puts good to sell or should I hang on for more of a drop?

  298. trdsfr!

    Phil: Is GE action a sign it’s getting ready to break down before earnings? I have a few naked calls @ even.

  299. zmann

    P – re oih and bhi. agreed and agreed!

    high priced gassy stocks not buying into the small rebound in oil and ng. SWN still playing around with $44, COG and KWK down pretty good here as well.

    FTO – HAPPY – I’d love your thoughts there. TSO looking very much like it put in it’s next lower high.

  300. windywheel

    phil,
    AUY – can you please explain what you mean when you say it is off to a slow start?
    thank you very much, in advance.

  301. HappyTrading

    Market rally
    A big part of the rally today was in the metals & mining. SOX also broke out in a big way. It is a broad market rally. GOOG/AAPL can make a difference, but, I don’t think you can count the whole market out just because GOOG/AAPL are not flying!

  302. thedraz

    Oh, Phil….don’t know if I said thanks for the mickey D’s…so: THANKS FOR THE MICKEY D’S!!

  303. k1

    10y T yld up to 5.13 today, 5bp. Is this what we saw the other day, selling bonds to buy stocks?

  304. Phil

    IBN – I wouldn’t short Asian markets overnight. If they don’t go up 200+ to match us something is very wrong.

    EWW is the laggard and over in Asia, money is pouring into lagging markets so it might rotate globally. Mexico is looking good anyway, being held down due to protectionism and immigration nonsense (a lot of their economy is money sent to family from US) but this will blow over just like has every time since 1890.

    Karm – the guys you mentioned are all good companies that are still cheap, very different than GOOG, APPL, RIMM…

  305. thedraz

    Windy --

    A guess regarding AUY: Gold is up a lot, as are several of the miner stocks, but AUY hasn’t participated yet because they are in a holding pattern due to an offer they’ve made to by out another miner (MDG, I think).

  306. HappyTrading

    FFIV
    new 52-wk high!

  307. k1

    zman-

    HK Dec 17.50s are 1.00 now, 15s are 2.10.

    Do you have an updated buy rec over the newsletter?

  308. coolkid

    RVBD

    any opinion since FFIV is at 52 week high

  309. Optrader

    Karmcon,

    Yes, you a re right, there might be more than a technical rally. Nobody knows, and especially not the talking heads on CNBC who are trying to convince you that this a relief rally from not so bad retail numbers. It is just the way it feels to me, from experience. But at the end of the day, does it really matter? The fact is that it is going up. Always follow price. Knowing the reason why it is going up is not going to help us guess what the next move will be, and it is not our job to guess or be right anyway, but to make money by following price.
    I was just making an observation, that in these kind of situation, where you have a breakout with no real fundamental catalysts, high flyers, especially heavily shorted, will move faster than companies with strong fundamentals. One reason being that the short squeeze and the other reason, as Phil mentioned, is that traders would rather play those in this kind of situation. Then when market turns or slows down, you usually see a “return to quality”.

    Just my $0.02.

  310. Phil

    TASR may be moving to pin $15 but .25 is not a cliff.

    EXM – business is too dull for good premiums but a great move of late. I’d roll out to Dec $35, take $1.30 off the table and sell the Aug $35 for $1.20 which gives you a double in cash, nice protection and $2.50 of room to run.

    EOG – I think the fundamentals are going to get them but shorting oil into the weekend is too risky so half off at least.

    GE – I’m not playing them (other than retirement account), just waiting to hear what they have to say.

    AUY – it is lagging behind the movement of the rest of the sector the past 2 weeks.

    MCD – those kind of plays come from me keeping an eye on my favorites over time. I blew the timing on TWX and DIS but when they do show signs of life, they too will put in a very real move but, like MCD, you are better off waiting for the day when all the stars finally line up than spending 3 months trying to get ahead of them.

    10-year – no today was lack of foreign participation in our debt aution. Its the kind of thing that makes me add 25% to my DIA puts…

  311. dek81244

    Phil
    On your SNDK play – don’t forget earnings for SNDK are 19JUL AMC – does that affect your strategy?

    dek

  312. Phil

    HK – you can buy the Jan $15s for $2.17, sell the $17.50s for $1.08 and sell the Aug $17.50s for .23 which can, if it goes well, leave you with a pretty low basis and a $2.50 max gain by Jan. Takes a bit of margin on the double sell though.

  313. mj23

    for all you crude haters :-)

    If you don’t want to buy options, you can buy the proshares Ultra short crude ETF ‘DUG’ if you want to short crude and if you are out of your mind and want to go long crude, you can buy DIG

  314. mSquare

    IBN – The ADR is trading about 5% higher than common share in India. Common trick by funds/crooks is to buy options and manipulate the price to pin, so be careful.

    Their secondary last month was at $49.25 but almost equivalent to $47.50 for Indian shareholders.

    Just take with a pinch of salt as I lost some shorting it in May/June betting the secondary would drive it down. Currently loosing and sweating out on a Jul 50/55 bear call spread (cost $1.65)

  315. Phil

    SNDK – no, I looked. No matter what happens, their premium goes to 0 on Friday.

  316. thedraz

    Wow. Big drop in ICE. Will the Aug 170s be a buy again soon?

  317. zmann

    SWN, TSO, FTO hitting new LOD. BHI slowly creeping lower.

    HK – wait. If this turns into a downdraft you’ll get it cheaper. If you already own like I do the first position is your first scale in. I’m not DD’d and I’m not selling. When in doubt always sell half applies of course.

  318. HappyTrading

    BOT
    shares to delist as end of the day!

  319. HappyTrading

    MICC
    99+!!

  320. zmann

    MJ you can also open an account with these guys to do daily Binary trading. Pretty interesting, just answer yes or no to the closing price of crude, natural gas, housing by region you name it and place your bets!

    http://www.hedgestreet.com/trade/active-trader.html

  321. Phil

    If DIG and DUG had options there wouldn’t be a site here, I would just be trading them all day! DUG is getting very attractive at $44 but I’ve already got bets that way while DIG at $100 makes too expensive of a cover. When I set up my hedge fund I plan to run some derivative strategies on these guys. Actually DUG is down 2% today and that seems aberrant with oil and gas negative on the day so it might make a nice play for people who like to make a couple of dollars on a $44 bet.

  322. HappyTrading

    CTSH
    went above this morning’s high!! LOL!! Wow!!

  323. karmcon

    Just got my first ever 5 bagger on LFC Jan 45′s :mrgreen: Probably should have held even longer, but I got overexcited and sold my last two. :neutral:

  324. coolkid

    Housing Prices melting down except Parking Lot Prices

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070712/071207_parkingspots.html?.v=4

  325. mSquare

    DUG – Thanks for that mj23 – Could be handy to use in an non-marginable (IRA-type) account.

    Quote claims yield of 3.24%! Is this correct/what you’ll see?

    How appropriate set of tickers DIG/DUG – used to be a PC game in the 80s called that too.

  326. trdsfr!

    Phil – clf drifting lower. Are you going to sell cover, stop out or add lower if it continues?

  327. dilbert

    what happens to BOT options if they get delisted. I am holding onto 10 calls

  328. karmcon

    Sure would be nice if TM would join the party….if the dollar dropped against the yen I would think that would be a positive for the stock….I mean if GM can go up on smoke and mirrors I would think a real auto maker would increase just to spite?

  329. thedraz

    Congrats, karmcon!

  330. alfamike

    mSquare – thanks for the heads up on the IBN puts – just getting a few Augusts seems like a good day trade entry, small position

  331. Phil

    BOT – holy cow that’s fast! Make sure you don’t take any open options into a delisting – it’s a nightmare!

    Hedge Street – I forgot about them, I was going to write up a piece about hedging your home but the contracts are not as clear as I wish they would be for the purposes of easy discussion (plus no leaps). What the hell kind of racket is it that they can do this but on-line gambling is regulated? The spread on these contracts make roulette look like a good deal!

  332. windywheel

    karmcon,
    i believe every SINGLE car or truck that General Morons is selling is making their stock price go up, because there is no other explanation!
    0% interest too!

  333. Chemistry

    Strange ICE action.

  334. Optrader

    New excuse from CNBC: it’s a flight from cash! Duhhh.

  335. karmcon

    Chemistry,

    No kiddiing on ICE :shock: :!:

    Watching to see if I can determine a bottom for additional scaling in.

    WindyWheel – I bailed out of all GM P’s for the time being until sanity returns to the forum.

  336. Cap

    zmann .. FTO; long uptrend; but not good to be down 2% on the best market rally of the year. maybe it will break down. Need to see how it handles 45ish.

  337. mj23

    Thanks Z.

    msquare, Yes, all those ultra Pro and Ultra short ETFs have some yield. Need to read their prospectus for more details.

    Cramer pumping CSCO!!

    out of my DIA 135 calls, no need to be greedy!

  338. HappyTrading

    Phil, did you get my email? Thanks!

  339. HappyTrading

    Oh, Phil, almost forgot to thank you for your compliments this morning in your post!

  340. thedraz

    MA ripping!

  341. Phil

    Boy you can use SLB like VLO for the OIH! It’s a great leading indicator:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart40:symbol=slb;range=5d;compare=oih;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    Congrats Karm – was that the one we did a few weeks ago?

    LOL – Dylan just hit it on the head – it’s a flight from cash! He’s right, it’s like I said this morning, all those dollars are doing us no good at all, just losing 11% per half – you are actually better off tossing it into the markets (which is their plan but we won’t get into that!).

    CLF – not getting much on the Augs so taking a few more at $2.80 to cut basis but if no bounce tomorrow, might be better off killing this one.

    BOT – you go into limbo for ages and, if out of the money, probably worthless. Not worth the chance.

    .20 on the Qs was not bad for a cover, should have gone for the current $48s but I wasn’t a true believer, sitll a nice chunkd of change and I’m torn as I can get $23K for selling the July $50s and I will eat my damned hat if they break 50 but GOOG explosion could do it. I think I have to do it – it’s mathematically the right thing to do and they shouldn’t hold that premium into Google’s earnings…

  342. Cap

    Phil; this AM you wanted to capture 13600. Market about to capture 13800 !
    Insane.

    Whoever called earlier for 1540, 1 point to go.

  343. zmann

    Cap

    Re FTO – I just didn’t know it could go down. 8-0

  344. vinaydh

    TGT ATH

  345. zmann

    I’m hold my oil short trades from today overnight.
    They’d be down a lot more if it weren’t for Dow up 225.
    Think we give back some of this broader move in the morning?

  346. albo

    Been out all day. Just walked in & sold the CTSH calls ! ! ! Thanks, Happy.
    Great pick !

  347. Phil

    Happy – the money I made is thanks enough! Now I got your mail (I never look during day). Call me at the close.

    ICE – I am telling you they have absolutely no growth plan outside of acquiring BOT. Dont’ go crazy with these guys.

  348. Cap

    13811; 1540.88; 2691. Wow.

  349. HappyTrading

    NMX
    flying!!

  350. Phil

    SNDK – so much for a naked sell, gotta cover. XXX

    Don’t worry Albo, you didn’t miss anything! 8-)

  351. djczing

    Can we get giddy yet ?

  352. Highlander

    it looks like short covering is a major factor. would explain goog and aapl being left out since only a fool would be heavy in shorts against them with earnings coming out.

  353. k1

    Giddy? Not me, I’m covering. DIA Aug 137 puts at 1.85 (now 1.80, darnit)

  354. albo

    Phil:

    I’m still in my GOOG spread. Long the Sept 550′s and short
    the Jul 530′s . Anything I should do at this point? Still trying
    to figure out the best strategy. I do know that sucking out
    premium in the Jul is good ! ! !!

  355. optiondragon

    CMG going ballistic.

  356. thedraz

    O, NMX, why dost thou MOCK me?

  357. djczing

    1540.53 looks to be previous SPX high – if it closes here then its official !

  358. karmcon

    Did manage to add some ICE Sep 180′s at 8.90 on that strange dip so that was a good thing…..thanks for mentioning it Chemistry!!

  359. Chemistry

    No Prob Karm. What a schitzo day for ICE!

  360. Highlander

    boy ccj is just nailed at $50. flat lined whole day.

  361. mSquare

    OIH – another reason Oil is up today is so that later it can be ‘brought-down’ and thus give a good reason to push the markets yet to more crazy levels. Can you not hear CNBC saying ‘Down crosses 14k as Oil prices fell sharply…’

  362. HappyTrading

    GOOG/AAPL
    Here they come! Nasdaq 2700!!?!?!?!

  363. mj23

    hope we had another hour of trading extra today! We could have seen the QQQQ cross 50 :-)

  364. angar

    GOOG – looks like GOOG is ALSO listening to Happy.. you are amzing Happy !!

  365. Phil

    Last time we had a gain this large was 3/21/03 but that was the 3rd 200pt gain in 10 sessions that started with Q1 earnings and the Dow went from 7.5K to 8.5K – that would be a 2K move at today’s levels. So I guess I’ll leave those Qs open for now and take a few more DIA Aug $139s, now $1.95, just in case…

  366. karmcon

    TM may join the party yet….up .45 after down in the cellar all day

  367. angar

    GOOG – looks like GOOG is ALSO listening to Happy.. you are amazing Happy !!

  368. djczing

    thedraz: They all mock us draz.

    When you show em that they dont get under ur skin any more is when they lose their power – and you take control.

    MMM buying puts…. it seems so… foreign ! Its like NG – Im downright scared to play it, preferring it in the high 5s first.
    Doesnt that mean its time to play ?

    Puts… hmmm I stopped outa one of those for a small loss this morning. My FTO puts are still sittin there barely breathing. I hate puts — unless of course bush goes and bombs Iran or something — but we would know that before it happenned because the democrats would tell the NY times, and the times would spin the story out of control and publish it.

    Hmmm…

  369. Nadir khan

    Tough day at the jobsite. . . I just turned on my computer. How does the market look today?

  370. Nadir khan

    just kidding.

  371. optiondragon

    Nadir you just missed the best day in 4 years!

  372. Phil

    GOOG – you should have rolled up to the $540s for the extra premium, costs you $6 to gain $10 in posiiton. I’m only 1/2 sold on the $540s with the other half a cover with the Aug 530 puts.

  373. mj23

    Lets see if CSCO can pierce 30 today

  374. thedraz

    Thanks for reflecting my Buddhist philosophy back at me, djczing. You are wise!

    (Actually, just having a little fun… Being on this site has been nothing but.)

  375. Nadir khan

    this is the best day I have ever seen in my experience, I didnt even think the market was capable of this.

  376. harvey

    They way things are going XOM could be at $100 before earnings come out.

  377. windywheel

    happy
    ATI – out at 8.4, +65%!!!
    you make me sooo HAPPYm thank you!!!!!

  378. HappyTrading

    ATI
    took some more off at +47.3%!

  379. juliet

    BID stinks in this super market.

    j

  380. Phil

    VOLV still going strong.

    DCX cranking.

    Qs at 6-year high, we are now climbing up the down staircase of 2000-2001!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart40:symbol=slb;range=5d;compare=oih;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

  381. trdsfr!

    GE – joining the party again; go naked calls.

  382. Phil

    C waking up – that’s one I don’t need a good reason to buy. Aug $52.50s are $1.52 XXX

  383. Cap

    looks like they want 2700 Naz too.

  384. mj23

    XOM at 100. Yes, thats what I am waiting for to load up on those Jan09 leap puts :-)

  385. HappyTrading

    BA
    almost breaking free!!

  386. alfamike

    hooray to infinity and beyond

  387. Arindam

    Phil, what’s the plan for the HPQ Nov 47.5 / Jul 45 play?

  388. albo

    Thanks, Phil.

  389. juliet

    Wow, when was the last time Dow was up +260 in July? I think back in 2003.

    j

  390. djczing

    Draz: Agreed re: its fun here — even on the down days its constructive !

    Ive had about 5 years of fighting my regrets and still have bouts of it – today I regret not getting the INTC into my long-term portfolio, as well as the others I was gonna get on the next dip. I regret every day that I dont play Happy’s great picks.

    Its all gravy in the end — Fresh lemons make great lemonade.

    By the way all you Erin ‘Giggles’ Burnette fans — Margaret Brennan beats her, hands-down…

  391. Phil

    GE – wow! That is one massive amount of money flowing into a $400bn company!

    Speaking of DUG – it’s totally crashing on flat oil – strange.

    Can we make 300 points – it’ll be like taking a trip to Hong Kong…

    GLW at ATH – man I love these guys!

    FIG moving up so BX Aug $30s at $1.68 are not so crazy. XXX for a few.

  392. mj23

    djczing, totally agree on Margaret :-)

  393. juliet

    Two of my favorite Korean stocks: PKX & SHG. I think they will go much higher.

    j

  394. ramana

    QI – up $0.67 I almost missed it. $17.01

  395. HappyTrading

    MA
    cashed out with +20% in 1.5 hrs!

  396. mSquare

    MU – Not participating in the SOX ralley. Is Aug 14 Call worth a buy (just $0.45)?

  397. trdsfr!

    GE – that tick down tripped my TS for a nice 2 day profit, so why do I feel manipulated?

  398. HappyTrading

    CTSH
    86+!!

  399. mj23

    oh my GOD!!! HOV is up a whopping 79 cents today.

  400. optiondragon

    What a great day.
    S&P Futures most shorted in 3 years!!!!!
    We go way higher from here.

  401. Phil

    HPQ – the plan was to set a 20% stop and have gotten out this morning. Still in it is not good. If you were in for .95 on the sold calls you can roll him to the Aug $47.50s for $1.50, which is all of your losses or you can wait a bit as the roll to the Aug $45s will net you .75 in premium pretty much whenever you do it.

    Stops – I don’t know how I can empasize enough that we absolutely stop out of July positions when they lose 20% of their profits (or simply lose 20%). Even with Aug positions you have to have a good reason to ride out losses like that.

  402. ramana

    Asia Markets – that would be interesting to watch….

  403. Rajee

    Bought some DIA Aug 138 puts for $2.05 for safety.

  404. trdsfr!

    Phil I have some naked msft – time to get out even since I don’t have margin to cover?

  405. mj23

    optiondragon, if that is true, then we could have a repeat day like today soon :-)

  406. DoubleCLick

    Any predictions for tomorrow’s open, folks?

  407. Phil

    MSFT – what month (and when in doubt, sell half applies).

  408. mj23

    INTC up $1.43 – just 107 million shares
    CSCO up $1 – 90 million shares

  409. mSquare

    DUG – nibbled a bit of it @ 43.60

  410. batesum

    that was amazing… can we do it again?

  411. Highlander

    ml reports that going into monday there was record short positions. now it gets reported!

  412. Nadir khan

    did you guys see maria push that guy off screen?

  413. Phil

    Tomorrow we need to blow through 13,900 and we can test 14,000 where I would have to start lightening back up a bit. What an amazing week. I keep saying we can’t do better than the last week but it’s only Thursday and we did it again…

  414. dday97

    Phew, I have to go rest my clicker finger. Later all. Slapping butts all around: “Good game, good game”.

  415. Lithium Rocketbottle

    EWJ

    bought some july 14 calls in case japan follows our rally.

  416. juliet

    I’m having too much fun. Thanks Phil & everyone, have a wonderful evening.

    j

  417. Chemistry

    I need a cigarette, and I dont even smoke.

  418. k1

    Can anyone point me toward how to contact Optionsage? I have a question about one of his Education posts.

  419. trdsfr!

    Phil & Happy – Personal best day ever thanks to you – CTSH, MCD, GE, T. Woohoo!

    MSFT, sorry in hurry to close & couldn’t get out. I’m naked msft Aug. 32.5 b/c I was too slow to sell cover early.

  420. optiondragon

    WOW! 285 points up! Man its been a long time. Too long.
    One of my best days ever, kicking myself on MA, i would usually play that…5 bagger there on the 165 calls intraday!
    Killed it on PCP, JCI(big time position), FFIV, AMZN

  421. HappyTrading

    Great to hear that so many people are happy! That’s what “HappyTrading! ™” is all about! Thanks all for the compliments!

  422. windywheel

    phil,
    HPQ, i only bought the calls, didn’t buy the puts
    in at 1.99, out just before the close at 2.9!!
    wow
    thank you soooo much for all your fabulous teachings!!!!
    climbing out of the desperate hole i was in just a few short weeks ago
    unbelievable!

  423. Phil

    Record shorts – they are scambling to justify this rally but there should be a major push to take this record into the weekend to work the buzz factor. I guess I underestimated how fast AL would close because that’s $40Bn in cash coming into the market and going out of AL and into other stocks – that’s pretty major!

    We’re just getting so used to these huge M&A deals that we forget how significant they are in impact.

    Oh man, Larry Kudlow is going to be insufferable today! Well, kudos to him, he said that Tuesday was nothing to be alarmed about and he was right.

  424. Optrader

    WOW, that was an amazing shorts squeeze. Hope anyone with puts here had good stops. Amazing day. Got back in CTSH in last hour (huge profits today on this one, thank you Happy!!) , CAT, AAPL, WFR and initiated INTC and GLW. Also bought back my DIA puts at the close for cover, and added to CCJ.

  425. windywheel

    karm,
    i didn’t loose any (more) money on General Morons today!
    guess i’m too far out of the money for my options to be affected.

  426. optiondragon

    AA withdrawing offer for Al and now buying back stock with the money!!!

  427. trdsfr!

    I better go home and cool down. Days like this make the addiction to close month options start CALLING me again. Go home, look at the kids you have to feed… Down boy! DOWN!!!

  428. djczing

    dragon/mj – thats just crazy talk !

    Well… SPX did close in breakout territory – Its gotta test that level – and if it bounces off it (and its after 10am) then its gonna be hard not to buy into it.

    Id like to see how it handles some bad news… although there is no bad news these days is there ?

    Low dollar ?
    GREAT for raw materials and oil !
    High oil ? GREAT for the S&P !
    High interest rates ?
    the Feds not gonna raise !
    Low rates ?
    Easy money !
    Credit crisis ?
    The market is adjusting to it ! thats what markets do !
    .2% adjusted GDP ?
    The feds not gonna raise rates – thats twice on that one, rally BIG !
    Earnings are slowing ?
    2nd half will be better ! wait til then !

    I heard Sharon Epperson say something today – Im surprised Phil didnt comment on it – after all this time of refinery/gasoline holding oil up, she said now what traders say will hold it up is refineries coming back on line, drawing oil inventories down… Classic.

  429. Brainfill

    Even bank stocks participated in today’s rally!

  430. Rajee

    Thanks Happy for all the calls.

  431. mSquare

    Phil,

    SNDK – Now that it closed at at $54.43, how about and updated options play? I never did write that Aug $55 covered call yesterday in the $1.50s (now $2.85) nor the sell of Jul 55 call earlier today…

  432. optiondragon

    Ok nice best point gain day since 2002!!!
    Is that awesome or what.

  433. ramana

    Thanks Phil, Happy and all. That was fun. Have a great evening

  434. BillBigD

    Beautiful day!
    Totally gone on CVX! $7.70 per conrtract. Oil can go to ZERO NOW. Phil!

  435. rD2.0

    Happy, Why did CTSH go up and INFY did not ?

  436. rD2.0

    optiondragon,
    JCI did not move on last earnings. You think it moves this time?

  437. HappyTrading

    online meeting software/site
    steve, thedraz, dragon (anyone I missed?), thanks!

    Wang’s World
    new posts up!!

    CTSH vs. INFY
    rD2.0, there could be many different reasons. Just because they are in the same space, it doesn’t mean that they have to always trade in sync. One thing that I noticed is that CTSH started going up fast 5 sessions ago and the volume was increasing. Perhaps “some people” have info that we don’t. Also, CTSH didn’t go down after INFY’s eanrings (which wasn’t bad anyway). Especially in a strong, bullish environment, good stocks often don’t sit idle. CTSH could go to 90 soon!

  438. rD2.0

    Thanks Happy!

  439. Greg

    Finally just checking in, WOW looks like I missed a really exciting day, and I will miss tomorrow too. My wife is having some scheduled surgery and I need to be there to support her.

    Make lots of money and keep the party rolling until I return next week.

    Greg

  440. thedraz

    Best to you and your wife. Hope it’s not too serious.

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