13,600 or bust!
That’s our rally cry for the day. Do we take back our bullish posture or are we going to end this week (and possibly this rally) with a whimper? We finally get some data in this very slow week but we’re not going to like it:
- Trade numbers we already know are dreadful, likely to break the $60Bn mark in monthly deficit
- The Monthly Budget should be net positive and gives traders something to jump on
- (All others are Friday)
- June Export Prices may not exceed last month’s .2% but the dollar is is now down 2% since June 30th. Oil prices are up 4.2% since June 30th too so look out for this number next month!
- Retail Sales are likely to be flat at best in the morning – only great GE earnings will offset that.
- Business Inventories were up .4% last month, if this continues we are slowing down more than expected.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment hopefully bottomed out at 85 last month.
Next week we get hammered with data and earnings including PPI and CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Leading Economic Indicators, FOMC minutes and the Philly Fed but Bernanke will be testifying before Congress and hopefully Karl Rove’s transmitter will be close enough to work this time as the chip in Ben’s head must have misfired on Tuesday when he failed to sugar coat the economy adequately.
Jim Kingsland wrote a nice piece entitled "The Subprime Disaster: How Long Can the Experts Live in Denial?" so I can skip along and pretend it doesn’t matter today as clearly everyone else seems determined to ignore this stuff. Like I’ve often said, just because we think the rally is insane, doesn’t mean we can’t profit off the madness! David Fry says "I have never seen so much bad news shrugged-off as have recent subprime woes. One commentator noted, "People have been programmed to buy any dip." That could translate to "dips buying," but that remains to be seen. Bulls believe the subprime mess is "contained" now that S&P and Moody’s have lowered credit ratings." Hey come on guys – lighten up! Come on, drink some Kool-Aid and join the party…
I’d also like to give a shout out to Patrick.net, who posted a nice set of housing charts this morning, allowing me to ignore all that negative stuff myself so we…